Dav|d 8 Layze||, hD, IkSC, (lnfo[cesarneL.

ca)
ulrecLor, CLSA8 lnluauve,
rofessor, unlverslLy of Calgary,
Chalr, 8oyal SocleLy of Canada Commluee on LxperL anels.
1
1ransformlng AlberLa's ower SecLor
Lo Address 8arrlers Lo Cll Sands
roducuon and LxporL.
CollaboraLors: ka|ed nasan, MSc and An|s naque, hD,
uepL. of LlecLrlcal and CompuLer Lnglneerlng, unlverslLy of Calgary
!une 2014
Web: www.cesarneL.ca
! Can be credlLed wlLh dellverlng a very hlgh
quallLy of llfe for mosL Canadlans,
2
Canada's Lnergy SysLems
Pow can we Lransform our energy sysLems
Lo achleve ob[ecuves for
LNLkG, LNVIkCNMLN1 & LCCNCM?
! lossll fuels: >80 of Lhe prlmary energy
! Powever, some 'unlnLended' consequences:
" CllmaLe change from CPC emlsslons,
" WaLer conLamlnaLed,
" Alr polluuon,
" Land and blodlverslLy lmpacLs.
3
Canadlan Lnergy SysLems
Analysls 8esearch (CLSA8) lnluauve
Canada |n the wor|d:
0.3 of populauon,
7 of land area,
Among hlghesL per caplLa energy users,
LxporL 30+ energy producuon.
1he so|unon requ|res a|| parts of energy systems:
Sources (fossll fuels, sun, blomass, wlnd, uranlum)
Commodlues (gasollne, dlesel, elecLrlclLy, eLc)
Servlce 1echnol. (cars, llghLs, furnaces, compuLers)
Amenlues (moblllLy, comforL, communlLy, lnformauon)
1o understand:
asL energy sysLems changes,
1he cosLs, beneLs and Lradeos of
posslble fuLure energy sysLems,
1o |nform po||cy and |nvestment
dec|s|ons.
1oo|s & Approach:
# 1echnology & daLa-rlch, quanuLauve models
# Lnhanced vlsuallzauons Lools,
# LxperLs from across Canada Lo dellver
ob[ecuve, crlucal analyses,
# Web orLal
www.cesarneL.ca
: WhaL's ln a name?
4
# Canadlan Lnergy SysLems SlmulaLor (CanLSS) Model
developed by whatIf? 1echno|og|es Inc., Cuawa,
# whaLlf? has agreed Lo make Lhe model avallable for use,
valldauon, lmprovemenL by unlverslLy researchers,
# ln parLnershlp wlLh whaLll?, Lhe model can be used for
conLracLual work.
3
Data Sources
SLaLCan and CanSlM
8LSu
CLL uAu
LC CPC lnvenLory
LA Moblle 6
nL8
C8C
LCA Models (C8LL1,
CPCenlus)
Sclenuc 8eporLs
AnecdoLal uaLa
CanLSS Mode|
A Lechnology
rlch, lnLegraLed
mulu-fuel, mulu-
secLor, demand
and supply
model of Lhe
Canada's
provlnclal and
nauonal energy
sysLems.
# PlsLorlcal daLa on energy
ows & CPC emlsslons by
provlnce, secLor &
Lechnology from 1978-2010.
# SlmulaLes fuLure energy
sysLems (esp. energy ows &
CPC emlsslons) assoclaLed
wlLh Lechnology & pollcy
cholces (2011 - 2060+).
1he Cutput
WhaLlf? 1echnologles lnc.
338 SomerseL SL. W, SulLe 3
Cuawa, Cn k2 0!9
www.whauechnologles.com
Assumpnons
opulauon growLh
Cu growLh
Lxlsung or new Lechnologles
ollcy lnsLrumenLs
6
CLSA8neL.ca
! lnLeracuve access Lo
hlsLorlcal daLa on
Canada's energy
sysLems by provlnce
& secLor,
! owerful
vlsuallzauons,
! A blog for 'nerds' of
energy sysLems
analysls and
sysLems change,
! A porLal Lo laLesL
research resulLs,
.Lo encourage & communlcaLe research and
crlucal analysls around Lhe Lransformauon of Canada's energy sysLems.
! Access Lo LalenLed
researchers, analysLs
& modelers.
Sankey ulagrams:
wbot ls uoJet tbe nooJ?
Canada's Domesnc Lnergy Systems |n 2010

wbot mokes
op tbe 1298
lI of letsoool
1toospott?
!"# #%#&'( )#*!+&
,#-.%, )#*!+&)
L|ne th|ckness =
eta[ou|es (I)
of energy
ow|ng.
ulesel /
8lodlesel
Casollne
/LLhanol
IULL
Plghway
ClLy
kCAD
USL
1L
lCL-
ulesel
lCL-Cas
hybrld
lCL-Cas/
LLhanol
LlecLrlc
CWLk
SCUkCL
ueconsLrucung
ersonal 1ransporL
Schoolbus
Mass
LranslL
lane
8all
LlghL
1ruck
Car
lnLerclLy
bus
VLnICLL kCVIDLk
ubllc
rlvaLe
kCVINCL
8C1err
A8
Sk
M8
Cn
C8
uoJetlyloq eocb of tbese Jotosets.
SLocks and llows
vlnLage vehlcle sLock
new vehlcles
purchased by
Lype
vehlcle sLock:
vehlcle class
ower source
luel Lype
Age
ersonal
vehlcle
kllomeLers
Lnergy demand by
vehlcle & fuel Lype
Lnergy
use
CPC
Lmlsslons
opulauon lamllles
1rlps by Lype:
CommuLer
non-commuLer
lnLerclLy
1rlps by mode:
Walk/blke
LlghL duLy
1ranslL
8all
Alr
vehlcle kllomeLers demand
10
1here ls no global soluuon,
only local ones?"
ur. vaclav Smll, u ManlLoba
Aprll 2014
AlberLa's Creenhouse
Cas (CPC) Challenge
Albetto ovltoomeot
LCC
2
e/caplLa:
AlberLa: 66
naL'l avg: 20
Coal power +
oll & gas
recovery seLs
AlberLa aparL.
1be CnC footptlot of oll sooJs
ooJetmloes tbe soclol llceose
to Jevelop tbe tesootce.
11
Albetto NeeJs
lotetptovloclol
coopetouoo
1he Lack of Soclal Llcense ls
8locklng Lnergy LxporL
foooce.yoboo.com
kobble.co
l
b
o
t
o

f
t
o
m

l
o
u
o
o
b
.
c
o
m

12
13
Pow Can AlberLa.
1. 8egaln Lhe soclal llcense Lo produce and 'move Lo
markeL' lLs vasL fossll fuel resources? (LNLkG)
2. Achleve ma[or reducuons ln greenhouse gas (CPC)
emlsslons? (LNVIkCNMLN1)
3. AL Lhe lowesL posslble cosL? (LCCNCM)
1o ocbleve oll tbtee qools, we oeeJ o systems level opptoocb
tbot tecoqolzes tbe lotet-coooecteJoess ooJ complexlty of
coooJo's eoetqy systems.
1oday's Lalk
14
A SLraLegy WorLh Lxplorlng
A. 1ransform A|berta's e|ectr|ca| gr|d
# lltst: Coal $ naLural gas (as a Lransluonal fuel),
# 1beo: Shl Lo renewables, lncludlng lmporLed hydro,
# negouaLe lnLerprovlnclal cooperauon Lo creaLe energy
corrldors (power ln, oll and gas ouL)
GnG keducnon
otenna|
Mt CC
2
e]yr
40-80
f
t
o
m

2
0
1
5

8. 1ransform o|| sands recovery & upgrad|ng to C-
free energy, through e|ther:
# nuclear/ CeoLhermal comblned heaL & power
# new elecLrlcal upgradlng Lechnologles wlLh C-free power
100-2S0
f
t
o
m

2
0
J
0

C. Increase emc|ency & e|ectr|hcanon of domesnc
energy systems
# urban deslgn, emclency, elecLrlc vehlcles
# Cll producLs noL used ln Canada can be exporLed.
40?+(A8 on|y)
to 200+ (Canada)
l
t
o
m

2
0
1
5

0
30
100
130
200
2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 2060
A8 LlecLrlclLy uemand
8oseJ oo A8 lecttlc 5ystem Opetotot (A5O)
l1Ou 2012 nlqb Oll 5ooJs Ctowtb ltojecuoo
Losses
8esldenual
Commerclal
lndusLrlal
C-Crld Cogen. (mosLly oll sands)
ALSC
# Cll producuon plaLeaus aL
~3.8M boe/d aer 2040
# opulauon rlses Lo 6.6M ln 2060
u
e
m
a
n
d

(
1
W
h
)

Modeled 3 Supply Scenarlos for Crld uemand:
1. 8Au (Coal domlnaLed)
2. ALSC (nC domlnaLed)
3. Low C (renewables domlnaLed)
Oll 5ooJs powet JemooJ ossomeJ
to be met by NC-coqeo
All scenarlos
assume no early
reuremenL of
caplLal sLock.
2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 2060
Low C
(keoewobles uomlooteJ)
Coal
nC-CC
nC-SC
Pydro
Wlnd
Solar
lmporLed
Pydro
8lomass
nC-Cogen
" ALSC scenarlo Lo 2023
" nC as 1ransluonal luel
" 1hen renewables backed
by large lmporLed hydro
ALSC
2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 2060
ALSC
(Nototol Cos uomlooteJ)
Coal
nC-CC
nC-SC
Pydro
Wlnd
8lomass
nC-Cogen
" ALSC scenarlo +
" CurrenLly, mosL llkely
fuLure for power gen'n
ALSC
Cenerauon Scenarlos
(nlqb Oll 5ooJs Ctowtb MoJel)
0
30
100
130
200
2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 2060
8AU
(cool uomlooteJ)
Coal
nC-CC
nC-SC
Pydro
Wlnd
8lomass
C
r
l
d

o
w
e
r

C
e
n
e
r
a
u
o
n

(
1
W
h
r
/
y
r
)

nC-Cogen
N
C
1
L
:

" '8eference' scenarlo
(noL a posslble fuLure wlLh
currenL regulauons)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 2060
0
10
20
30
40
30
2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 2060
8AU
(cool uomlooteJ)
ALSC
(Nototol Cos uomlooteJ)
Low C
(keoewobles uomlooteJ)
C
a
p
a
c
l
L
y

(
C
W
)

Coal
nC-CC
nC-SC
Wlnd
8lomass
Cogen
Pydro
Cogen
nC-CC
nC-SC
Pydro
Wlnd
Coal
8lomass
Cogen
Coal
nC-CC
nC-SC
Pydro
Wlnd
Solar
lmporLed
Pydro
p
e
a
k

l
o
a
d

CapaclLy Scenarlos
(nlqb Oll 5ooJs Ctowtb MoJel)
N
C
1
L
:

WlLh renewable Lechnologles, more capaclLy musL be bullL (aL hlgher cosL)
Lo meeL peak load and ensure a rellable grld.
8lomass
uo we have Lhe 8enewable
Lnergy 8esource?
18
?es!
1.3 CL CC
2
e
Cumulauve
CPC 8eneL
0.6 CL CC
2
e
2.1 CL CC
2
e
CPCs from ower Cenerauon
ln AlberLa
C
o
m
b
u
s
u
o
n

C
P
C

L
m
l
s
s
l
o
n
s


(
M
L

C
C
2
e
/
y
r
)

19
Lmlsslons from nC-cogen (o grld)
8
A
u

ALSC
CosL?
0
40
80
120
2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 2060
1he CosL Model
20
C
A

l
1
A
L


L
x

L
n
S
L


(
C
A

L
x
)

8ulld 1lme
CaplLal CosL
Llfeume
CapaclLy lacLor
key features |ncreas|ng costs
Var|ab|es
lnLeresL 8aLe
C lnvesLmenL
Plgher
C

L
8
A
1
l
C
n
A
L


L
x

L
n
S
L


(
C

L
x
)

llxed
varlable
luel CosL
PeaL 8aLe
C Levy
voloes ftom A5O l1O (2012), lA (2014), lozotJ lcO v6, lkNA (201J)
ALSC
(nC domlnaLed)
Low C
(8enewables domlnaLed)
Longer (esp. hydro)
ShorLer Lhan hydro
Lower Lhan nC CC
need Lo borrow more
Assume for nC:
$3.23$$8/C! ln 2060
Plgher for v, blomass & wlnd
lmpacLed more Lhan Low C
lewer ellglble Lechnologles
21
Levellzed CosL of LlecLrlclLy
(LCCL)
L
e
v
e
l
l
z
e
d

c
o
s
L

(
2
0
1
1
$
/
M
W
h
)

Low C
ALSC
8Au
Plgh CALx
Low
CLx
Assumed C Levy
LecL of C Levy on LCCL
for all Lhree scenarlos
8Au
Low C
ALSC
C lnvesLmenL lnLo
CALx for Low C
Scenarlo Lo be cosL
compeuuve wlLh ALSC
C

l
n
v
e
s
L
m
e
n
L


(
$
8
/
y
r
)

$0
$2
8Au
ALSC
Low C
1oLal:
$26.38
22
Pow Much ls $26.38 WorLh
ln Lhe 'Low C' Scenarlo?
" Clven Lhe assumed C levy:
# ~170 of Lhe funds LhaL would be generaLed
from Lhe power generanon sector
# ~11 of Lhe funds LhaL would be generaLed
from Lhe o|| sector (recovery & upgrad|ng)
Assumed C Levy
" 8y 2060, relauve Lo Lhe 8AU Scenar|o:
# ~ 512.4S ] tCC
2
e and decllnlng
every year Lhereaer,
# uellvers elecLrlclLy prlce slmllar Lo
ALSC (even lower aer 2030),
# ower prlces noL ued Lo volaullLy of
Lhe nC prlce.
CosL: $/LCC
2
e noL emlued
" 8reak Lhe '8lLumen 8ubble':
# An lncrease ln Lhe prlce for oll sands
producL of $10/barrel = $8-$208+/yr,
# SlgnlcanL lncrease ln provlnclal
royalLy lncome
8eneL: MarkeL Access
23
2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 2060
Low C
(keoewobles uomlooteJ)
Coal
nC-CC
nC-SC
Pydro
Wlnd
Solar
lmporLed
Pydro
8lomass
nC-Cogen
ALSC
A SLraLegy WorLh Lxplorlng
lo oJJtessloq tbe cbolleoqes of cllmote cbooqe,
Albettos fossll eoetqy sectots coot jost be pott of tbe ptoblem.
!/01 2345 60 7895 :; 5/0 4:<3=:>?
Cther Scenar|os need|ng study:
# nuclear or CeoLhermal
cogenerauon
# new elecLrlclLy-based / low C
Lechnologles for oll sands recovery
& upgradlng
100-230 ML
CC
2
e/yr
# Shl Lo elecLrlc vehlcles eLc.
# lmproved emclency
40-200 ML CC
2
e/yr
40-80 MLCC
2
e/yr
24
llnally - AbouL CLSA8.
# Lnergy-LnvlronmenL-Lconomy
Soluuons 8LCul8L a sysLems-level
approach.
# CLSA8 can provlde Lhe Lools, forum for
meeung / dlscusslng, crlucal analyses,
lnslghLs and experuse.
Who Shou|d Care?
# lndusLry (energy, lnvesLmenL,
energy-uslng secLors)
# CovernmenL (Munlclpal,
rovlnclal, lederal)
# LnvlronmenLal nCCs
# 8esearch & Lralnlng org.
Va|ue ropos|non - Inform:
# SLraLegy
# ollcy (esp. energy &
cllmaLe change)
# 1echnology AssessmenL
# 8u&u lnvesLmenL
# Lnergy LlLeracy
What |s CLSAk & where |s |t go|ng?
! An 'lnluauve' of my research program, bullL
wlLh llnks Lo researchers, pracuuoners /
users of sysLems analysls across Canada.
! WlLh sumclenL, broad-based supporL, CLSA8
wlll became a nauonally lncorporaLed, nl
research neLwork.
23
AcknowledgemenLs
ka|ed nasan, M.Sc.
Dr. An|s naque
1ransformlng A8
LlecLrlcal SysLem:
Lnergy SysLems
vlsuallzauon and
CLSA8 WebslLe:
CanLSS Model
uevelopmenL &
valldauon:
ka|ph 1orr|e
Chr|s Stone
8en[am|n Israe|
uepL. of LlecLrlcal & CompuLer Lnglneerlng,
unlv of Calgary
M|chae| noman
Shona We|don
8ert McInn|s
Marcus W||||ams
ka|ph 1orr|e
8asnaan Straatman
whaLlf? 1echnologles lnc, Cuawa, CnL
lSLLL, unlv of Calgary
CLSA8, unlv of Calgary & 1orrle SmlLh Assoc.
lSLLL, unlv of Calgary
CLSA8, unlv of Calgary & 1orrle SmlLh Assoc.
CLSA8, unlv of Calgary
Spec|a| thanks
for the hnanc|a|
support of:
" uCalgary SLarLup lundlng Lo u8L
" 8lCCA Canada
" CSLL
" A8 uepL. Lnergy
" whaLlf? 1echnologles lnc
" 1orrle SmlLh AssoclaLes