Hofstad Group

analizing capabilities, technique: Devil's Advocacy -

Having in mind the 4 common perceptual and cognitive biases:
perceptual biases: we tend to perceive what we expect to perceive
biases in evaluating evidences: it is difficult to judge the impact of missing evidence
biases in estimating probabilities: probability estimates are influenced by how easily one can
imagine an event or recall similar instances
biases in perceiving causality: events are seen as part of a patter, accidents tend to be
rejected as explanation for observed events
We are going to underline the reasons why the terrorist group named Hofstad, operating
mainly in Dutch territory but with know affiliation to various other groups located in elgium,
!pain and other "uropean countries, can pose a real threat to the security of #omania$%he tehni&ue
used in this paper is a contrarian one, known as 'Devil(s )dvocacy'$
*ey assumption + the risk of a terrorist attack on Romanian soil is low, supporting this idea
are the following factors:
weak international actor with a minor role in the global political stage
there were no cases of violent terrorism acts ,only economical terrorism-
there are little to none known terrorist organi.ations residing in #omania
/n the past 01 years things have radically changed in #omania, including national security
strategy which now strongly supports fighting terrorism, the alliances #omania is part of today, the
military misions conducted and so on$ ,2- We need to remember that 3!) affirmed the role that
#omania played in /rak and esspecially in )fganistan was a major one, having troops stationed
there at this time as well 4 this puts the country 'under the lenses' of the international opinion,
including terrorist groups as well$ ,0- %he economy is getting stronger and stronger, surpassing
what major economies of western countries ,!pain, 5reece- after the economic crysis of 0116, thus
increasing the role it plays in the "uropean arena and the international arena as well$ ,7- )fter the
borders were opened once #omania joined "3, the image that western societies have about
romanian citi.ens switched from neutral to a very bad one, romanians ,and bulgarians maybe- are
regarded as the rotten apples of the "3 and the sources of all evils, a political card which a lot of
politicians play to get votes and pass anti+imigration laws$
%he factors mentioned earlier (ilitary ops conducted in usli countries and the
affiliation to the !"A, gro#ing regional and global role, very bad iage$ inserted in the events
unfolding today 4 and / reffer specifically to the euroskeptical image which gains a lot of public
support, the rise of nationalistic parties and movements all arround "urope and the trouble that
romanians keep creating abroad 4 rise the possibility of suffering a terrorist strike exponentialy$
%hink about the conse&uences it would have8 /t would be a cold shower for all the nation, a
very strong psyhological strike:
it would make the public ask about the true benefits of being a 9)%: member and the
conse&uences it has
it would give birth to nationalistic movements and it would spread fear to the romanians
abroad
it would panic the whole romanian society and other "3 members as well
it would be a very good image build for the organi.ation that commited the act
Why would Hofstad be able to commit such an act; Well consider the following:
they are a young organi.ation which commited only one truly mediati.ed strike, and that
some time ago
it has young members, full of mixed feelings and eager to prove themselves
it can choose a country which is not so well developed in which a plan can unfold under
the radar of the autorities
not a lot of things are really known about its members, its capabilities, there is a lot of
uncertanty around it and that makes it difficult to forsee its next move
their messages were targeted against a broad range of political<media figures and
strategic objectives located in more that one country
affiliation with other similar groups can never be rulled out, hence transnational strikes
can be orchestred or at least imagined
5ive the fact that #omania can represent a target for a terrorist attack, as shown above, and
that this organi.ation would have the means to commit such an act, we cannot rule out this
posibility$
/t is only a matter of time until the other side figures out the same arguments8