Appendix 1: Estimating Indices of Occurrence by Day

As is standard in this literature, we estimate an index of occurrence. Where j indexes the

day of the week, t indexes the year, MeanBirthsjt is the average number of births on a
particular day of the week, and MeanBirthst is the average number of births across the
year, the index of occurrence is defined as:

MeanBirths jt
Index jt =
MeanBirthst

For example, the index of occurrence for Sundays in 1990 is 0.75. This means that, in
1990, Sundays had 75 percent of the number of births that would be expected if births
were uniformly distributed across the week. In turn, this would suggest that 25 percent of
the babies that would have been born on Sunday were ‘moved’ to another day of the
week.

Appendix Table 1 shows the index of occurrence for 1975-2003 using administrative
births data. Appendix Table 2 shows the index of occurrence for 1960-1988 using
electoral roll data.1 For both tables, Panel A includes public holidays, while Panel B
excludes public holidays.

Appendix Figure 1 charts the weekend index of occurrence in the two series. Over the
common period (1975-88) the two track one another reasonably closely, although the
index of occurrence is on average higher in Victoria than in the rest of Australia. One
possible interpretation of this is that fewer births are shifted off weekends in Victoria than
in the rest of Australia. Another possibility is that the population dataset is less precise
than the births dataset, either because people incorrectly recall their birthdates, or do not
tell the electoral commission their true birth date. If misreports are spread evenly across
the week, then measurement error will attenuate the weekend births index of occurrence
towards 1. Our data do not allow us to distinguish these two competing explanations. To
account for them, our empirical analysis adjusts the index of occurrence calculated from
the population sample, using the ratio of the two series in the common period. For 1975-
2003, we use administrative births data, and for 1960-74, we use population data, with
the share of births shifted off weekends scaled up 19 percent (the ratio of the two series in
the common period 1975-88) so that the two series match one another.

1
Since the electoral roll dataset contains over 10,000 observations per year from 1920-88, we could
theoretically also analyze the period before 1960. However, the weekend index of occurrence for these
years is very close to unity. For example, the weekend index of occurrence (including holidays) is 1.01 for
the 1920s, 1.00 for the 1930s, 0.99 for the 1940s, and 0.98 for the 1950s.
 2

Appendix Figure 1: Weekend Index of Occurrence

1
.9
.8
.7

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Population sample Births data

Note: Both series include public holidays.
 3

Appendix Table 1: Index of Occurrence for Distribution of Births Across the Week (Births Data)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Weekday Weekend
Panel A: Including public holidays
1975 1.02 1.11 1.08 1.10 1.08 0.86 0.74 1.08 0.80
1976 1.01 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.08 0.85 0.74 1.08 0.79
1977 0.99 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.11 0.85 0.74 1.08 0.79
1978 1.01 1.10 1.09 1.12 1.10 0.85 0.73 1.08 0.79
1979 1.00 1.11 1.09 1.12 1.11 0.85 0.74 1.08 0.79
1980 1.01 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.09 0.85 0.75 1.08 0.80
1981 1.01 1.10 1.09 1.12 1.09 0.83 0.74 1.08 0.79
1982 1.02 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.10 0.83 0.74 1.08 0.79
1983 1.00 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.12 0.82 0.73 1.09 0.78
1984 1.00 1.09 1.09 1.13 1.12 0.83 0.74 1.09 0.78
1985 1.02 1.10 1.09 1.12 1.12 0.83 0.73 1.09 0.78
1986 1.02 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.11 0.82 0.73 1.09 0.77
1987 1.01 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.11 0.81 0.74 1.09 0.78
1988 1.01 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.11 0.83 0.76 1.08 0.79
1989 1.02 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.12 0.82 0.75 1.09 0.78
1990 1.02 1.08 1.09 1.13 1.11 0.82 0.75 1.09 0.79
1991 1.02 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.11 0.82 0.76 1.08 0.79
1992 1.00 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.10 0.82 0.76 1.08 0.79
1993 1.01 1.09 1.11 1.12 1.10 0.82 0.75 1.09 0.78
1994 1.01 1.10 1.10 1.13 1.11 0.82 0.74 1.09 0.78
1995 1.02 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.11 0.82 0.74 1.09 0.78
1996 1.03 1.09 1.10 1.13 1.10 0.82 0.74 1.09 0.78
1997 1.03 1.09 1.10 1.13 1.10 0.81 0.73 1.09 0.77
1998 1.01 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.10 0.80 0.72 1.10 0.76
1999 1.01 1.10 1.12 1.15 1.11 0.79 0.72 1.10 0.75
2000 1.03 1.09 1.11 1.15 1.14 0.78 0.71 1.10 0.75
2001 1.03 1.12 1.12 1.15 1.12 0.76 0.70 1.11 0.73
2002 1.05 1.13 1.12 1.15 1.12 0.75 0.69 1.11 0.72
2003 1.07 1.14 1.12 1.14 1.11 0.74 0.68 1.11 0.71
Panel B: Excluding public holidays
1975 1.02 1.11 1.08 1.10 1.09 0.86 0.74 1.08 0.80
1976 1.01 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.08 0.85 0.73 1.08 0.79
1977 1.00 1.08 1.09 1.12 1.11 0.85 0.74 1.08 0.79
1978 1.02 1.10 1.09 1.12 1.10 0.85 0.73 1.08 0.79
1979 1.00 1.11 1.09 1.11 1.11 0.85 0.73 1.08 0.79
1980 1.02 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.10 0.84 0.75 1.08 0.80
1981 1.01 1.10 1.09 1.12 1.10 0.83 0.74 1.08 0.78
1982 1.01 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.10 0.83 0.74 1.08 0.79
1983 1.01 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.12 0.82 0.73 1.09 0.77
1984 1.00 1.09 1.09 1.13 1.13 0.83 0.74 1.09 0.78
1985 1.01 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.12 0.82 0.72 1.09 0.77
1986 1.02 1.09 1.11 1.12 1.12 0.81 0.72 1.09 0.77
1987 1.01 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.12 0.81 0.73 1.09 0.77
1988 1.02 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.11 0.82 0.75 1.08 0.79
1989 1.02 1.09 1.09 1.12 1.12 0.82 0.75 1.09 0.78
1990 1.02 1.09 1.09 1.13 1.11 0.82 0.74 1.09 0.78
 4

Appendix Table 1: Index of Occurrence for Distribution of Births Across the Week (Births Data)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Weekday Weekend
1991 1.02 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.11 0.81 0.76 1.08 0.79
1992 1.00 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.11 0.82 0.75 1.08 0.79
1993 1.01 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.11 0.82 0.74 1.08 0.78
1994 1.02 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.11 0.81 0.74 1.09 0.78
1995 1.03 1.09 1.09 1.12 1.11 0.81 0.74 1.09 0.78
1996 1.03 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.11 0.81 0.74 1.09 0.78
1997 1.03 1.08 1.10 1.14 1.11 0.80 0.73 1.09 0.76
1998 1.02 1.10 1.11 1.14 1.11 0.80 0.72 1.10 0.76
1999 1.01 1.10 1.11 1.14 1.11 0.79 0.71 1.10 0.75
2000 1.03 1.10 1.11 1.14 1.13 0.77 0.71 1.10 0.74
2001 1.03 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.12 0.76 0.69 1.11 0.73
2002 1.05 1.13 1.12 1.15 1.12 0.75 0.68 1.11 0.71
2003 1.07 1.13 1.11 1.14 1.12 0.73 0.68 1.12 0.71
Note: Index of Occurrence is defined as the ratio of the average number of births for a given day of the week in a given year to the average daily
number of births in that year. Public holidays are those observed nationally: New Year’s Day, Australia Day, Anzac Day, Good Friday, Easter
Monday, Christmas Day and Boxing Day.
 5

Appendix Table 2: Index of Occurrence for Distribution of Births Across the Week (Population Sample)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Weekday Weekend
Panel A: Including public holidays
1960 1.00 1.04 1.00 1.02 1.02 0.96 0.95 1.02 0.96
1961 0.97 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.00 0.95 1.01 0.98
1962 0.99 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01 0.99 0.95 1.01 0.97
1963 0.97 1.04 1.01 1.03 1.03 0.99 0.93 1.02 0.96
1964 0.98 1.01 1.05 1.04 1.02 0.99 0.92 1.02 0.95
1965 0.97 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.05 0.97 0.92 1.02 0.94
1966 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.03 0.97 0.91 1.02 0.94
1967 0.96 1.03 1.02 1.04 1.06 0.97 0.92 1.02 0.95
1968 1.00 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.03 0.97 0.90 1.03 0.93
1969 0.98 1.06 1.06 1.04 1.03 0.95 0.89 1.03 0.92
1970 0.97 1.04 1.04 1.08 1.04 0.96 0.87 1.04 0.91
1971 0.96 1.04 1.05 1.08 1.06 0.95 0.87 1.04 0.91
1972 0.97 1.04 1.05 1.08 1.06 0.97 0.83 1.04 0.90
1973 1.00 1.06 1.04 1.06 1.07 0.94 0.82 1.05 0.88
1974 0.99 1.08 1.05 1.07 1.07 0.92 0.82 1.05 0.87
1975 1.01 1.07 1.09 1.08 1.05 0.91 0.78 1.06 0.84
1976 1.01 1.07 1.10 1.12 1.06 0.88 0.77 1.07 0.82
1977 0.98 1.07 1.08 1.12 1.10 0.89 0.78 1.07 0.84
1978 1.01 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.08 0.89 0.78 1.07 0.83
1979 1.00 1.06 1.06 1.10 1.09 0.89 0.79 1.06 0.84
1980 1.01 1.09 1.07 1.10 1.08 0.88 0.77 1.07 0.83
1981 1.00 1.08 1.08 1.10 1.09 0.88 0.77 1.07 0.83
1982 1.01 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.09 0.87 0.76 1.07 0.82
1983 0.99 1.08 1.08 1.12 1.09 0.88 0.75 1.08 0.81
1984 0.99 1.08 1.06 1.13 1.10 0.88 0.76 1.07 0.82
1985 1.01 1.10 1.07 1.11 1.10 0.87 0.74 1.08 0.80
1986 1.02 1.09 1.11 1.10 1.08 0.85 0.75 1.08 0.80
1987 1.01 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.07 0.85 0.75 1.08 0.80
1988 1.02 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.08 0.86 0.78 1.07 0.82
Panel B: Excluding public holidays
1960 1.00 1.04 1.01 1.03 1.00 0.96 0.96 1.02 0.96
1961 0.98 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.00 0.94 1.01 0.97
1962 0.97 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.95 1.01 0.97
1963 0.97 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.03 0.99 0.94 1.02 0.96
1964 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.02 0.99 0.92 1.02 0.96
1965 0.97 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.03 0.97 0.92 1.02 0.95
1966 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.04 0.95 0.92 1.03 0.93
1967 0.97 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.06 0.97 0.90 1.02 0.94
1968 0.98 1.04 1.03 1.05 1.03 0.97 0.90 1.03 0.94
1969 0.98 1.06 1.04 1.04 1.04 0.95 0.90 1.03 0.92
1970 0.98 1.04 1.04 1.06 1.04 0.96 0.87 1.03 0.91
1971 0.96 1.04 1.05 1.08 1.05 0.95 0.87 1.04 0.91
1972 0.98 1.05 1.05 1.08 1.06 0.95 0.83 1.05 0.89
1973 0.99 1.07 1.05 1.06 1.07 0.94 0.82 1.05 0.88
1974 0.99 1.06 1.06 1.08 1.07 0.92 0.82 1.05 0.87
1975 1.02 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.06 0.91 0.78 1.06 0.84
 6

Appendix Table 2: Index of Occurrence for Distribution of Births Across the Week (Population Sample)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Weekday Weekend
1976 1.01 1.07 1.09 1.10 1.07 0.88 0.77 1.07 0.82
1977 0.99 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.10 0.88 0.78 1.07 0.83
1978 1.02 1.07 1.07 1.11 1.08 0.89 0.76 1.07 0.83
1979 0.99 1.07 1.06 1.10 1.10 0.89 0.78 1.06 0.84
1980 1.01 1.08 1.06 1.11 1.08 0.88 0.78 1.07 0.83
1981 1.00 1.08 1.07 1.09 1.10 0.88 0.77 1.07 0.83
1982 1.01 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.09 0.88 0.76 1.07 0.82
1983 1.00 1.08 1.08 1.12 1.09 0.87 0.75 1.08 0.81
1984 0.99 1.08 1.07 1.13 1.10 0.88 0.76 1.07 0.82
1985 1.01 1.09 1.08 1.12 1.10 0.87 0.74 1.08 0.80
1986 1.02 1.08 1.10 1.10 1.09 0.84 0.75 1.08 0.80
1987 1.01 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.08 0.85 0.75 1.08 0.80
1988 1.02 1.09 1.08 1.09 1.08 0.85 0.78 1.07 0.82
Note: Index of Occurrence is defined as the ratio of the average number of births for a given day of the week in a given year to the average daily
number of births in that year. Public holidays are those observed nationally: New Year’s Day, Australia Day, Anzac Day, Good Friday, Easter
Monday, Christmas Day and Boxing Day.
 7

Appendix Table 3: Distribution of Birth Procedures Over the Week (2003-2005 data)
Cells Show the Index of Occurrence
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Week Week Sample
day end Size
Panel A: Including public holidays
All births 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.00 0.69 0.77 1.11 0.73 442,783
Vaginal, not 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.95 0.99 1.01 0.97 221,680
induced
Vaginal, 1.23 1.24 1.27 1.31 0.94 0.42 0.59 1.20 0.50 90,178
induced
C-section, 1.24 1.24 1.29 1.23 0.84 0.44 0.72 1.17 0.58 21,048
induced
C-section, 1.24 1.26 1.19 1.25 1.12 0.45 0.47 1.21 0.46 109,877
not induced
Panel B: Excluding public holidays
All 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.14 1.00 0.69 0.77 1.11 0.73 434,107
Vaginal, not 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.01 0.98 0.95 0.99 1.01 0.97 215,906
induced
Vaginal, 1.23 1.22 1.26 1.31 0.94 0.41 0.60 1.19 0.50 88,930
induced
C-section, 1.24 1.23 1.28 1.24 0.83 0.43 0.72 1.17 0.57 20,730
induced
C-section, 1.25 1.24 1.18 1.25 1.13 0.44 0.47 1.21 0.45 108,541
not induced
Note: For each birth procedure, the Index of Occurrence is defined as the ratio of the average number of
births for a given day of the week to the average daily number of births in the data. Public holidays are
those observed nationally: New Year’s Day, Australia Day, Anzac Day, Good Friday, Easter Monday,
Christmas Day and Boxing Day.
 8

Appendix 2: Deriving an Historical Series of Cesarean Section and

Induction Rates

Cesarean Section Rates

From 1991 onwards, rates are from Australia’s Mothers and Babies, an annual
publication of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s National Perinatal
Statistics Unit. For comparability across years, we use the share of mothers who
delivered by cesarean section in a given year, rather than the share of babies delivered by
cesarean section in a given year (the two series differ in the case of multiple births, but
the differences are small).

From 1985-1990, rates are from Lancaster and Pedisich (1993).

From 1980-1984, rates are from Read et.al. (1990). These figures are for Western
Australia only, and are scaled up by a factor of 1.02, being the ratio of the cesarean
section rate in all of Australia to the cesarean section rate in Western Australia in 1985
(Lancaster and Pedisich 1993).

For 1978 and 1963, the rates are from Opit and Selwood (1979). These figures are for
South Australia only, and are scaled down by a factor of 0.84, being the ratio of the
cesarean section rate in all of Australia to the cesarean section rate in South Australia in
1976 (Opit and Selwood 1979).

For 1976, the rate is from Opit and Selwood (1979).

Missing years are linearly interpolated.

Induction Rates

From 1991 onwards, rates are from Australia’s Mothers and Babies, an annual
publication of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s National Perinatal
Statistics Unit.

From 1981-1990, rates are for South Australia, and were supplied via email by Joan Scott
of the Pregnancy Outcome Unit in the South Australian Department of Health. Rates are
scaled down by a factor of 0.92, being the ratio of the induction rate in all of Australia to
the induction rate in South Australia in 1991 (Australia’s Mothers and Babies 1991).

Note that the two series are not mutually exclusive. In some cases, induction is attempted
without success, and a cesarean section is then performed. In 2003-05, this occurred with
about one-fifth of inductions.
 9

Appendix Table 4: Cesarean Section and Induction Rates

Year Cesarean Section Rate Induction Rate
1963 0.02
1964 0.02
1965 0.03
1966 0.04
1967 0.04
1968 0.05
1969 0.06
1970 0.06
1971 0.07
1972 0.08
1973 0.08
1974 0.09
1975 0.10
1976 0.10
1977 0.11
1978 0.12
1979 0.12
1980 0.11
1981 0.12 0.20
1982 0.13 0.19
1983 0.14 0.19
1984 0.14 0.19
1985 0.16 0.20
1986 0.16 0.21
1987 0.17 0.21
1988 0.17 0.18
1989 0.18 0.19
1990 0.18 0.19
1991 0.18 0.20
1992 0.18 0.19
1993 0.19 0.21
1994 0.19 0.22
1995 0.19 0.22
1996 0.20 0.22
1997 0.20 0.24
1998 0.21 0.26
1999 0.22 0.26
2000 0.23 0.26
2001 0.25 0.27
2002 0.27 0.27
2003 0.29 0.26
 10

References

Lancaster P and E.L Pedisich (1993), Caesarean Births in Australia 1985-1990. AIHW
National Perinatal Statistics Unit. AIHW: Sydney.

Opit, L.J and T.S. Selwood (1979), “Caesarean-Section Rates in Australia,” Medical
Journal of Australia, 2: 706-709

Read, AW, Waddell VP, Prendiville WJ, Stanley FJ ( 1990), “Trends in caesarean section
in Western Australia, 1980-1987,” Medical Journal of Australia, 153(6): 318-323.