Barry Lefer

University of Houston
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
17 June 2014
Introduction to Photochemical Trace Gas
(PTG) and Climate Change

Residual Layer Ozone and its Influence on
Mixed Layer Ozone in Southern California
Plymouth State University-Christopher Foster

Introduction to climate change
Barry Lefer

University of Houston
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
17 June 2014

2014 SARP
ANTCI, 2005
All climate scientists agree that:
1) Earths average surface temperature has warmed by 0.7C
since 1900, a conclusion based on direct measurements.
2) concentrations of CO
2
, CH
4
, N
2
O, and other greenhouse
gases have built up in the atmosphere over the last 100
years due to human activities.
The issue at the heart of the greenhouse debate is not whether
rising greenhouse gas levels have contributed to the
warming, but rather the magnitude of the amplification of
the warming by various feedbacks.
Climate change debate
Climate vs. weather
Weather Climate
Shorter-term fluctuations Longer-Term Changes

Current atmospheric conditions Broad composite of average (or mean)
(e.g., temp, press, ws, wdir, condition of a region (e.g., temp, rain,
rainfall, etc.) snowfall, ice cover, winds)

Hours, Days, Weeks Years (and longer), Typically 30 yr ave.

Specific location for specific time Mean state of a specific region
(e.g., continent, ocean, or entire planet)
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012
!
T
one _ layer
=
476
5.67 "10
#8
4
= 302.7K
!
P
a
="T
4
= 476 W m
2
= E
out
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012

!
T
one _ layer
=
714
5.67 "10
#8
4
= 335K = 62
!
C
two_layers
Greenhouse gas warming

Dessler, 2012

!
T
one _ layer
=
714
5.67 "10
#8
4
= 335K = 62
!
C
two_layers
Some basic reactions
C
6
H
12
O
6
+ O
2
! CO
2
+ H
2
O + heat

H
2
O + CO
2
+ sunlight ! C
6
H
12
O
6
+ O
2


C
6
H
12
O
6
+ O
2
! CO
2
+ H
2
O + heat + NO + SO
2

NO ! NO
2
! HNO
3

SO
2
! H
2
SO
4
! sulfate aerosol

NO
X
+ VOCs + sunlight ! O
3

CO
2
+ H
2
O = HCO
3
-
+ H
2
CO
3
Lefer 7 i. basics
Where does atmospheric CO
2
go?

Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 8 i. basics
Geochemical reservoir and fluxes
At Steady-State Input = Output
Residence time = Reservoir size / Flux rate in (or out)
Ruddiman, 2008
Global Carbon Cycle

GLOBE, 2007
Global Carbon Cycle

GLOBE, 2007
How long is CO
2
in the atmosphere?

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/4/48/Carbon_Dioxide_Residence_Time.png
Lefer 9 i. basics
CO
2
lifetime in the atm-ocean system

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/4/48/Carbon_Dioxide_Residence_Time.png
Lefer 10 i. basics
Climate system response
Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 11 i. basics
Response times of climate system components
Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 12 i. basics
Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 13 i. basics
Albedo-temperature feedback
Source: NASA Lefer 14 i. basics
Albedo-temperature feedback
Albedo-temperature feedback
Source: NASA Lefer 15 i. basics
Positive and negative feedbacks
Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 17 i. basics
Time scales of climate change
Ruddiman, 2008
Ocean sediment core record
GlobalWarming Art (t), Ruddiman, 2008 (b) Lefer 19 ii. past climates
Coring Earths ice sheets
Lefer 20 ii. past climates Twickler GISP2 SMO (1994)
Bubbles trapped in ice core
EPICA (2004) Lefer 20 ii. past climates
Ice core proxy T, CO
2
, dust record

GlobalWarmingArt.com Lefer 21 ii. past climates
CO
2
measurement record

Anthropogenic CO
2
Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 24 iii. natural & anthro cc
GlobalWarmingArt Lefer 25 iii. natural & anthro cc
Anthropogenic CO
2
Lefer 27 iii. natural & anthro cc NASA GISS
Global Temperature
Lefer 27 iii. natural & anthro cc NASA GISS
Global Ocean Temperature
Lefer 26 iii. natural & anthro cc NASA GISS
NASA GISS
Global Temperature Anomaly Feb 2014
Volcanic cooling and El Nio warming
Ruddiman, 2001 Lefer 29 iii. natural & anthro cc
Natural warming and greenhouse effects
Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 31 iii. natural & anthro cc
Natural interannual variability
Lefer 34 iii. natural & anthro cc Science, 2010
150 0.0450.012
100 0.0740.018
50 0.1280.026
25 0.1770.052
Period Rate



Years /decade
Kevin Trenberth, 2008
Rate of global temperature rise
Lefer 35 iv. future cc
Radiative forcing of recent warming

Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 36
Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 37 iv. future cc
Response to abrupt !CO
2
and SO
2
emissions?

Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 38 iv. future cc
Response to abrupt !CO
2
and SO
2
emissions?

Response to abrupt !CO
2
and SO
2
emissions?

Ruddiman, 2008 Lefer 39 iv. future cc
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/ Lefer 41 iv. future cc
Another future global temperature forecast
Projected impacts of climate change
IPCC, 2007
Projected impacts of climate change
IPCC, 2007
Projected impacts of climate change
IPCC, 2007
Projected impacts of climate change
IPCC, 2007
All climate scientists agree that:
1) Earths average surface temperature has warmed by 0.7C
since 1900, a conclusion based on direct measurements.
2) Concentrations of CO
2
, CH
4
, N
2
O, and other greenhouse
gases have built up in the atmosphere over the last 100
years due to human activities.
3) Climate change will result in significant negative impacts to
our environment and society.
Climate change common ground
The challenge
IPCC, 2007
Discussion Question

What can we do to reduce climate change impacts?