datos sobre espaa

valor exportaciones de almidon de papa

Periodo

valor exportaciones en (valor

FOB en dolares)

Peso neto (kg)

2004
312,561
451,025
2005
323,794
463,121
2006
329,297
429,815
2007
698,032
597,520
2008
412,188
386,323
2009
338,627
426,002
2010
473,459
633,478
2011
1,378,575
724,243
2012
739,513
588,320
2013
617,832
555,176
fuente United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database

conceptos

S/./kg

precio por kg FOB

0.69
0.70
0.77
1.17
1.07
0.79
0.75
1.90
1.26
1.11

US$/kg

costo de produccin

1.84

0.69

costo materia prima

1.13

0.42

costo de transformacin

0.71

0.26

gastos administrativos

0.51

0.19

Margen de utilidad

0.71

0.26

precio de venta

3.06

1.14

valor importaciones de almidon de papa

Periodo

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

Produccion de almidon de papa en Espa

valor
importaciones
en (valor CIF
en dolares)

Peso neto (kg)

precio por kg
CIF

14,243,731
14,458,562
18,325,093
21,359,486
29,484,884
20,595,076
18,129,564
28,911,175
25,705,523
25,852,827

26,401,389
30,045,369
37,385,288
29,667,272
35,748,935
38,266,147
35,077,684
30,051,403
33,581,356
33,832,710

0.54
0.48
0.49
0.72
0.82
0.54
0.52
0.96
0.77
0.76

0.85
0.89
0.94
0.99
1.04
1.09

Periodo

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

fuente Agrosynergie,Evaluation of Comm

modelo de crecimiento exponencial

fuente United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database

calculo produccion no registrada de almido

Produccion de almidon de papa en Espaa

cuota de
produccion
produccion de porcentaje de
registrada de
la cuota
almidon de
almidon de
producido
Espaa en
papa en kg
toneladas
1943
0
0
1943
6.8
132120
1943
1.5
29150
1943
0
0
1943
0
0
1943
0
0

fuente Agrosynergie,Evaluation of Common Agricultural Policy Measures Applied to the Starch Sector, PDF

usando
usando
porcentaje
regresion simple, modelo cubico
calculo produccion no registrada de almidon de papa
0.029989215
produccion
Produccin de
registrada de produccion no produccion no
papas (en
Periodo
almidon de registrada en registrada en
miles de
papa (en
toneladas
toneladas
toneladas)
1000
toneladas)
2004
2774
132.12
2005
2604
29.15
2006
2515
0.00
75.42
-7.74
2007
2480
0.00
74.36
-5.37
2008
2147
0.00
64.38
-9.77
2009

2719

0.00

81.55

49.65

2010

2298

0.00

68.90

15.8

2011

2455

0.00

73.63

-2.65

2012

2192

0.00

65.75

5.98

2013

2259

0.00

15.78

15780

2014

2239

0.00

14.31

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

2223
2209
2196
2186
2177
fuente: Eurostat

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

12.29
9.86
6.99
4.35
1.66

14310
12290
9860
6990
4350
1660

oferta Espaa
informacion en kg de almidon de papa
produccion
nacional
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

0
132,000
29,150
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

importaciones

26,401,389
30,045,369
37,385,288
29,667,272
35,748,935
38,266,147
35,077,684
30,051,403
33,581,356
33,832,710
29,706,696
27,013,720
23,797,458
20,057,908
15,795,073
11,008,950
cuadratico

exportacione produccion
total oferta
s
no registrada
451,025
463,121
429,815
597,520
386,323
426,002
633,478
724,243
588,320
555,176
638,546
663,908
690,278
717,695
746,201
775,839
exponencial

75,420
74,360
64,380
81,550
68,900
73,630
65,750
68,291
67,365
66,438
65,511
64,584
63,658
62,731
lineal

0
26,082,364
29,611,398
37,030,893
29,144,112
35,426,992
37,921,695
34,513,106
29,400,790
33,058,786
33,345,825
29,135,514
26,416,249
23,172,691
19,404,798
15,112,529
10,295,842

oferta Catalua
informacion en kg de18.80%
almidon de papa

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

produccion
nacional

importaciones

exportacione produccion
total oferta
s
no registrada

0
24816
5480.2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
4963461.132
5648529.372
7028434.144
5577447.136
6720799.78
7194035.636
6594604.592
5649663.764
6313294.928
6360549.48
5584858.801
5078579.357
4473922.015
3770886.776
2969473.639

0
84792.7
87066.748
80805.22
112333.76
72628.724
80088.376
119093.864
136157.684
110604.16
104373.088
120046.6968
124814.7965
129772.2789
134926.6661
140285.7789

0
0
0
14178.96
13979.68
12103.44
15331.4
12953.2
13842.44
12361
12838.78857
12664.55286
12490.31714
12316.08143
12141.84571
11967.61

0
4903484.432
5566942.824
6961807.884
5479093.056
6660274.496
7129278.66
6488463.928
5527348.52
6215051.768
6269015.181
5477476.657
4966254.878
4356465.818
3648101.955
2841155.47

2019

2069682.604 145857.7487 11793.37429

cuadratico
exponencial
lineal

1935618.23

demanda Espaa
informacion en kg de almidon de papa
produccion
nacional

15.78
14.31
12.29
9.86
6.99
4.35

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

0
132,000.00
29,150.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

importaciones

26,401,389.00
30,045,369.00
37,385,288.00
29,667,272.00
35,748,935.00
38,266,147.00
40,421,034.30
42,976,914.56
45,694,406.80
48,583,730.00
51,655,749.27
54,922,016.74
58,394,815.01
62,087,203.33
66,013,066.67
70,187,168.02
curva s

exportacione produccion
total demanda
s
no registrada
451,025.00
463,121.00
429,815.00
597,520.00
386,323.00
426,002.00
633,478.00
724,243.00
588,320.00
555,176.00
638,546.26
663,908.49
690,278.08
717,695.03
746,200.95
775,839.09
exponencial

75,420.00
74,360.00
64,380.00
81,550.00
68,900.00
73,630.00
65,750.00
68,291.43
67,364.64
66,437.86
65,511.07
64,584.29
63,657.50
62,730.71
lineal

0
26,082,364.00
29,611,398.00
37,030,893.00
29,144,112.00
35,426,992.00
37,921,695.00
39,856,456.30
42,326,301.56
45,171,836.80
48,096,845.43
51,084,567.65
54,324,546.11
57,770,048.01
61,434,092.58
65,330,523.22
69,474,059.64

demanda Catalua
informacion en kg de almidon de papa

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

produccion
nacional

importaciones

exportacione produccion
total demanda
s
no registrada

0
24816
5480.2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
4963461.132
5648529.372
7028434.144
5577447.136
6720799.78
7194035.636
7599154.449
8079659.937
8590548.479
9133741.24
9711280.862
10325339.15
10978225.22
11672394.23
12410456.53

0
84792.7
87066.748
80805.22
112333.76
72628.724
80088.376
119093.864
136157.684
110604.16
104373.088
120046.6968
124814.7965
129772.2789
134926.6661
140285.7789

0
0
0
14178.96
13979.68
12103.44
15331.4
12953.2
13842.44
12361
12838.78857
12664.55286
12490.31714
12316.08143
12141.84571
11967.61

0
4903484.432
5566942.824
6961807.884
5479093.056
6660274.496
7129278.66
7493013.785
7957344.693
8492305.319
9042206.941
9603898.718
10213014.67
10860769.03
11549609.4
12282138.37

2019

13195187.59
curva s

145857.7487 11793.37429
exponencial
lineal

13061123.21

demanda insatisfecha Espaa

informacion en kg de almidon de papa
demanda
insatisfecha
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5343350.30
12925511.56
12113050.80
14751020.00
21949053.52
27908296.76
34597357.49
42029294.94
50217994.13
59178217.99

demanda insatisfecha Catalua

informacion en kg de almidon de papa
demanda
insatisfecha

4126422.061
5246759.79
6504303.207
7901507.45
9440982.896

11125504.98

rendimiento
15.80%
costos de produccion y precio de venta
tipo de cambio
almidon
costo de produccion
costo materia prima
costo de transformacion
gastos administrativos
0.57407407
Margen de utilidad
precio de venta

precio de papa por kg

precio papa de tercera por kg
kg de insumo para 1 kg de almidon

promedio precio nacional

0.72
0.28
0.20
6.33
1.28

S./kg
1.65
0.94
0.71
0.51
1.24
3.40
1.24
precio minimo
(huancavelica)
0.48
0.13
0.85

2.685
US$/kg
0.61
0.35
0.26
0.19
0.46
1.08

precio
maximo(puno)
1.32
0.37
2.34

2.16
0.94
0.71
0.51
1.24

precio maximo
0.18
S./kg
3.05
2.34
0.75531915
0.71
0.51
0.30
1.07
4.63

US$/kg
1.14
0.87
0.26
0.19
0.40
1.72

precio minimo
0.16
S./kg
1.44
0.82
0.62
0.51
0.58
2.53

US$/kg
0.54
0.31
0.23
0.19
0.22
0.94

PRECIO EN CHACRA (S/./Kg)

TOTAL
Aos
NACIONAL
AREQUIPA
CAJAMARCA CUZCO
HUANUCO
2003
0.44
0.53
0.45
0.45
0.51
2004
0.40
0.42
0.39
0.46
0.39
2005
0.37
0.39
0.36
0.31
0.43
2006
0.49
0.53
0.52
0.47
0.50
2007
0.45
0.39
0.44
0.48
0.47
2008
0.59
0.76
0.55
0.61
0.66
2009
0.66
0.58
0.62
0.71
0.64
2010
0.62
0.55
0.56
0.73
0.66
2011
0.68
0.70
0.57
0.77
0.56
2012
0.72
0.65
0.64
0.77
0.70
2013
0.79
0.68
0.67
0.91
0.72
2014
0.84
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.76
2015
0.91
0.73
0.75
1.09
0.80
2016
0.98
0.75
0.79
1.19
0.84
2017
1.05
0.78
0.83
1.30
0.89
2018
1.13
0.79
0.88
1.41
0.94
2019
1.21
0.81
0.93
1.53
0.99
modelo curva de
modelo
crecimiento
curva screcimiento exponencial
modelo cuadratico
curva de crecimiento

JUNIN

LA LIBERTAD LIMA
PUNO
0.38
0.46
0.48
0.41
0.33
0.44
0.33
0.47
0.24
0.38
0.42
0.48
0.42
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.48
0.31
0.54
0.39
0.62
0.74
0.62
0.49
0.77
0.47
0.91
0.43
0.60
0.43
0.90
0.41
0.73
0.67
1.16
0.48
0.76
0.66
1.32
0.49
0.84
0.73
1.55
0.51
0.90
0.80
1.80
0.54
0.97
0.88
2.08
0.56
1.04
0.96
2.38
0.58
1.11
1.06
2.70
0.61
1.19
1.16
3.05
0.63
1.27
1.27
3.42
curva de crecimiento
modelo tendencia
modelo
cuadratica
tendencia
modelo
cuadratico
tendencia cuadratico

en toneladas
2004
Importaciones de Espaa
Exportaciones de Alemania
Exportaciones de Paises Bajos
Exportaciones del Reino Unido

2005

2006

2007

26401

30045

37385

29667

299867

330496

416533

308733

66079

119299

106163

49284

1698

2993

2080

3271

367644

452788

524776

361288

Oferta de almidon de papa de principales pr

toneladas)
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

35749

38266

35078

30051

33581

33833

320176

406551

405178

305945

368159

280035

81880

201796

196249

195096

236425

219589

3339

1213

284

411

697

653

405395

609560

601711

501452

605281

500277

de papa de principales proveedores (en

toneladas)
Importaciones de
Espaa
Exportaciones de
Alemania
Exportaciones de Paises
Bajos
Exportaciones del Reino
Unido

aos

espaa

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

26401
30045
37385
29667
35749
38266
35078
30051
33581
33833

exportaciones

367644
452788
524776
361288
405395
609560
601711
501452
605281
500277

299867
330496
416533
308733
320176
406551
405178
305945
368159
280035

26
30
37
30
36
38
35
30
34
34

1000
300
330
417
309
320
407
405
306
368
280

demanda
fuente

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

demanda
demanda
eurostat
variacion pbi
Europa 28 (variacion
Espaa%)
(variacion
inflacion
%) Espaa
inflacion europa
1.3
2.7
3.6
2.1
1.5
3.1
3.1
2
2.6
3.3
3.1
2
2.2
3.6
3.4
2.2
3.4
4.1
3.6
2.2
3.2
3.5
2.8
2.3
0.4
0.9
4.1
3.7
-4.5
-3.8
-0.2
1
2
-0.2
2
2.1
1.6
0.1
3.1
3.1
-0.4
-1.6
2.4
2.6
0.1
-1.2
1.5
1.5

oferta
informacion en kg de almidon de papa
produccion importacione exportacione produccion
nacional
s
s
no registrada
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

0
132,000
29,150
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

26,401,389
30,045,369
37,385,288
29,667,272
35,748,935
38,266,147
35,077,684
30,051,403
33,581,356
33,832,710

451,025
463,121
429,815
597,520
386,323
426,002
633,478
724,243
588,320
555,176

75,420
74,360
64,380
81,550
68,900
73,630
65,750
68,291

demanda
oferta
oferta
ine
eurostat
modelo curva de
pronostico
crecimiento
modelo lineal
empresas catalua
precio papa espaa
produccion
(eurosde
porpapa
100 europa
kg)
(1000 T)
10753
46252.2
10314
21.03
40996.4
10067
21.57
66021.9
9576
16.59
58206.6
8990
26.45
52230
8782
23.96
63543.2
8487
22.19
61442
8203
14.01
62528.7
7823
25.28
56120.5
7518
20.38
62539.7
7225
24
53794.1
6943
21.86
51417.1

Periodo
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

inflacion Espaa
3.1
3.4
3.6
2.8
4.1
-0.2
2
3.1
2.4
1.5

demanda
informacion en kg de almidon de papa
produccion
nacional

total oferta
0
26,082,364
29,611,398
37,030,893
29,144,112
35,426,992
37,921,695
34,513,106
29,400,790
33,058,786
33,345,825

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

0
132,000.00
29,150.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

importaciones

exportacione
s

26,401,389.00
30,045,369.00
37,385,288.00
29,667,272.00
35,748,935.00
38,266,147.00
40,421,034.30
42,976,914.56
45,694,406.80
48,583,730.00

451,025.00
463,121.00
429,815.00
597,520.00
386,323.00
426,002.00
633,478.00
724,243.00
588,320.00
555,176.00

inflacion europa
2
2.2
2.2
2.3
3.7
1
2.1
3.1
2.6
1.5

1000
produccion
total demanda
no registrada

75,420.00
74,360.00
64,380.00
81,550.00
68,900.00
73,630.00
65,750.00
68,291.43

0
26,082,364.00
29,611,398.00
37,030,893.00
29,144,112.00
35,426,992.00
37,921,695.00
39,856,456.30
42,326,301.56
45,171,836.80
48,096,845.43

26082.364
29611.398
37030.893
29144.112
35426.992
37921.695
39856.4563
42326.3016
45171.8368
48096.8454

aos

total oferta precio de papa

produccion de papa
inflacion espaa

2004
26082364
2005
29611398
2006
37030893
2007
29144112
2008
35426992
2009
37921695
2010
34513106
2011
29400790
2012
33058786
2013 33345825.4

periodo

9,603,899
10,213,015
10,860,769
11,549,609
12,282,138
13,061,123

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

21.57
16.59
26.45
23.96
22.19
14.01
25.28
20.38
24
21.86

total demanda
empresas catalua
4,919,121
10067
5,581,624
9576
6,961,808
8990
5,479,093
8782
6,660,274
8487
7,129,279
8203
7,493,014
7823
7,957,345
7518
8,492,305
7225
9,042,207
6943
9,072
6668
9,384
6407
9,681
6156
9,964
5915
10,234
5683
10,492
5460

66021.9
58206.6
52230
63543.2
61442
62528.7
56120.5
62539.7
53794.1
51417.1

3.1
3.4
3.6
2.8
4.1
-0.2
2
3.1
2.4
1.5

pbi espaa
3.3
3.6
4.1
3.5
0.9
-3.8
-0.2
0.1
-1.6
-1.2

inflacion europa periodo empresas cataluapbi europa

2
2.2
2.2
2.3
3.7
1
2.1
3.1
2.6
1.5

inflacion espaa
3.1
3.4
3.6
2.8
4.1
-0.2
2
3.1
2.4
1.5

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

10067
9576
8990
8782
8487
8203
7823
7518
7225
6943

2.6
2.2
3.4
3.2
0.4
-4.5
2
1.6
-0.4
0.1

pbi espaa total demandatotal demanda t

3.3
3.6
4.1
3.5
0.9
-3.8
-0.2
0.1
-1.6
-1.2

26082364
29611398
37030893
29144112
35426992
37921695
39856456.3
42326301.6
45171836.8
48096845.4

26082.364
29611.398
37030.893
29144.112
35426.992
37921.695
39856.4563
42326.3016
45171.8368
48096.8454

al demanda t

4,919,121
5,581,624
6,961,808
5,479,093
6,660,274
7,129,279
7,493,014
7,957,345
8,492,305
9,042,207
9,603,899
10,213,015
10,860,769
11,549,609
12,282,138
13,061,123

1000
4919.12
5581.62
6961.81
5479.09
6660.27
7129.28
7493.01
7957.35
8492.31
9042.21
9603.90
10213.02
10860.77
11549.61
12282.14
13061.12

aos
precio de papa
produccion de papa
2004
21.57
66021.9
2005
16.59
58206.6
2006
26.45
52230
2007
23.96
63543.2
2008
22.19
61442
2009
14.01
62528.7
2010
25.28
56120.5
2011
20.38
62539.7
2012
24
53794.1
2013
21.86
51417.1

TOTAL
OFERTA
CATALUA

4903484.43
5566942.82
6961807.88
5479093.06
6660274.5
7129278.66
6488463.93
5527348.52
6215051.77
6269015.1

1000

4903.48443
5566.94282
6961.80788
5479.09306
6660.2745
7129.27866
6488.46393
5527.34852
6215.05177
6269.0151

12000000
10000000
8000000

DI optimista

6000000
4000000

DI
pesimista

2000000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

AOS

TOTAL
DEMANDA

TOTAL OFERTA

2014

9603898.73

5477476.65

2015

10213014.67

4966254.87

2016

10860769.02

4356465.81

2017

11549609.48

3648102.02

2018

12282138.32

2841155.45

2019

13061123.28

1935618.3

AOS

TOTAL
DEMANDA

TOTAL OFERTA

2014

9,072,000

5477476.65

2015

9,384,000

4966254.87

2016

9,681,000

4356465.81

2017

9,964,000

3648102.02

2018

10,234,000

2841155.45

2019

10,492,000

1935618.3

DEMANDA
INSATISFECHA

DEMANDA INSATISFECHA

4126422.06

3,594,523

5246759.8

4,417,745

6504303.21

5,324,534

7901507.44

6,315,898

9440982.89

7,392,845

11125504.98

8,556,382

DEMANDA
INSATISFECHA
3,594,523
4,417,745

periodo

5,324,534

2014

6,315,898

2015

7,392,845

2016

8,556,382

2017
2018
2019

DI optimista
DI pesimista
4126422.06
3594523
5246759.8
4417745
6504303.21
5324534
7901507.44
6315898
9440982.89
7392845
11125504.98
8556382

Periodo
2014
2015

Demanda
Ao Nmero de empresas
proyectada
11
6668
9,072,000
12
6407
9,384,000

2016

13

6156

9,681,000

2017
2018
2019

14
15
16

5915
5683
5460

9,964,000
10,234,000
10,492,000