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The weekly briefing | 14 July 2014

Political and security risk updates


Africa: Nigerian president appoints close allies to cabinet amid growing political
pressure
Americas: !ene"uelan president adopts more pragmatic stance in face of internal
criticism
Asia and Pacific: #ndonesia awaits official results of presidential election w$ile bot$
candidates anticipate %ictory
Europe: &erman c$ancellor e'pels (#) station c$ief in Berlin as furt$er *+ spying
acti%ities unco%ered
Middle East: Palestinian deat$ toll rises as #srael continues military offensi%e
against t$e &a"a +trip
Polar regions: ,$reefold increase in -ussian strategic bomber flig$ts o%er )rctic
Ocean
)frica
Nigerian president appoints close allies to cabinet amid growing political
pressure
On . July/ Nigerian President &oodluck Jonat$an appointed four allies to ministerial
positions left %acant after a cabinet res$uffle last year ,$e appointment of t$e new
ministers represents an attempt to s$ore up support in t$e predominantly 0uslim
nort$ of Nigeria/ w$ere Jonat$an1s ruling People1s 2emocratic Party 3P2P4 is facing
t$e strongest opposition )mong t$e new appointees are #bra$im +$ekarau/ a
former go%ernor of 5ano state/ a political strong$old for t$e opposition )ll
Progressi%es (ongress 3)P(4/ and )bdul Bulama from 6obe state/ w$ic$ remains in a
state of emergency as t$e go%ernment continues to fig$t t$e Boko 7aram
insurgency
Jonat$an also faces growing public and international criticism of $is administration1s
failure to defeat Boko 7aram/ particularly following t$e kidnapping of more t$an
200 sc$oolgirls by t$e insurgent group in )pril 2014 -ecent Boko 7aram attacks/
and t$eir targeting of women and young girls/ are a growing concern for t$e
go%ernment/ and are increasing international attention on Jonat$an1s unsuccessful
approac$ to mitigating t$e acti%ities of t$e insurgent organisation

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Jonat$an $as also been $it by se%eral defections from senior go%ernment figures ,$e latest ministerial
appointments $ig$lig$t t$e president1s efforts to generate popular support against domestic political
opponents #n particular/ t$e )P(/ created in 2018 as a fusion of four regional parties/ $as become a
nationwide c$allenge for Jonat$an1s P2P/ w$ic$ is likely to face toug$ election in 2019
ther de!elopments
Thousands rallied against "enyan President #huru "enyatta in Nairobi on $ %uly& ,$e demonstrators
criticised $is failure to deli%er on security/ t$e rising cost of li%ing and widespread corruption ,$e
opposition group (oalition for -eforms of 2emocracy 3(O-24 $ad asked t$e go%ernment to con%ene
national talks on t$ese issues by : July/ w$ile t$e go%ernment maintains t$at discussion s$ould take place
in parliament Public discontent is especially $ig$ o%er al;+$abaab attacks in response to 5enya1s troop
deployment in +omalia #n t$e most recent attack on t$e coastline earlier t$is week/ gunmen killed 22
people/ wit$ aut$orities struggling to identify t$e culprits
'omali troops retook the presidential palace in Mogadishu on ( %uly) after se!eral hours of fighting
with al*'habaab rebels who had forced their way in& +omali President 7assan +$eik$ 0o$amud was not
in t$e palace during t$e attack/ w$ic$ started w$en a car bomb e'ploded outside t$e presidential
compound/ before armed militants entered t$e palace ,$e compound $ouses se%eral go%ernment offices
and $as been fre<uently targeted by al;+$abaab and ot$er groups linked to al;=aeda ,$e most recent
attack is t$e first time al;+$abaab militants $a%e been able to engage in prolonged fig$ting inside t$e
structure )lt$oug$ t$e )frican *nion mission 3)0#+O04 released a statement t$at t$e situation $ad been
stabilised and security measures furt$er stepped up/ al;+$abaab1s increasingly fre<uent employment of
guerrilla tactics and t$e widespread infiltration of security forces continue to pose risks
+econciliatory negotiations continue to falter in 'outh 'udan as the fledgling country marked its
third anni!ersary on , %uly& 2espite repeated calls from t$e international community and fres$ sanctions
by t$e >uropean *nion/ President +al%a 5iir and $is ri%al/ former !ice President -iek 0ac$ar/ $a%e not
returned to t$e negotiating table yet ,$e instability t$at $as marked t$e country since last 2ecember?s
failed coup is causing increasing tensions between t$e Nuer and 2inka/ wit$ more t$an 400/000 +out$
+udanese $a%ing already fled to +udan/ >t$iopia/ 5enya and *ganda 0ore t$an one million remain
internally displaced @it$ a c$olera outbreak in nine of t$e 10 states/ aid agencies now warn of t$ousands
of li%es at risk amid t$e already gra%e $umanitarian crisis
n the radar
The #N 'ecurity -ouncil will consult on the #N mission in the -entral African +epublic
.M/N#'-A0 on 11 %uly as Arance warns of t$e political isolation of t$e country?s interim president
The #N 'ecurity -ouncil will consult on the latest de!elopments in 2ibya on 1$ %uly) as t$e
*nited Nations plans to temporarily reduce its staff in t$e support mission for Bibya 3*N+0#B4
Tunisia3s Ennahda party to choose a consensual candidate for the country3s presidency&
4urther demonstrations should be e5pected in 6rega in the Al 7ahat district of 2ibya amid
t$e ongoing s$utdown by protesting state oil guards
The 8emocratic +epublic of -ongo and Tan9ania) among other least de!eloped countries) are
seeking a bigger presence at negotiations on the post*2:1; #N de!elopment agenda) w$ic$
continues ne't week
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)mericas
=ene9uelan president adopts more pragmatic stance in face of internal criticism
)t t$e end of June/ !ene"uelan President NicolCs 0aduro pledged t$at a series of reforms would be
undertaken from 1 to 19 July in order to tackle t$e country?s se%ere economic issues ,$e announcement
took place following 0aduro?s dismissal of Jorge &iordani/ t$e t$en minister of planning and t$e arc$itect
of t$e Boli%arian economic model #n a publis$ed letter/ &iordani t$en criticised 0aduro for $is lack of
leaders$ip and blamed $im for muc$ of t$e country?s current economic problems !ene"uela faces
profound macroeconomic imbalances/ wit$ an annual inflation rate of D0.E and c$ronic s$ortages of
basic goods ,$e criticisms raised by &iordani recei%ed t$e backing of a number of prominent members of
t$e ruling *nited +ocialist Party of !ene"uela 3P+*!4/ many of w$ic$/ suc$ as 7Fctor Na%arro/ were later
dismissed from t$eir positions for publicly %oicing t$eir %iews 0aduro also publicly defended $is vice-
president for economic affairs, Rafael Ramrez, confirming he would be staying in the economic
cabinet.
&iordani?s letter was t$e first open criticism of t$e 0aduro regime by a founding fat$er of t$e Boli%arian
re%olution 7is criticisms reflect t$e broader rift between t$e radical and more moderate fractions of t$e
P+*! party #n t$at regard/ -amGre" represents a s$ift towards a more ort$odo' stance -amire"/ w$o is
t$e president of t$e state;owned Petrleos de Venezuela and minister of petroleum and mining/ is
seen as a pragmatic tec$nocrat #n addition/ $e benefits from t$e support of t$e president of t$e (entral
Bank of !ene"uela 3B(!4/ Nelson 0erentes -amGre" $as %owed to combat t$e country?s rampant inflation
problem by means of monetary and fiscal reforms +uc$ reforms entail an adHustment of t$e current
e'c$ange rate and t$e adoption of a string of austerity measures
0aduro?s recent reaction to t$e rising criticism among t$e radical faction of t$e P+*! party $as made $im
more subser%ient to t$e interests of t$e moderates/ epitomised by -amGre" ,$is ideological s$ift is likely
to be clarified in t$e course of t$e upcoming t$ird national congress of t$e P+*!/ w$ic$ is to take place
from 2D to 2. July ,$e meeting is being $ailed by party leaders as an opportunity to re;orientate and
strengt$en t$e largest political force be$ind t$e country?s Boli%arian re%olution 7owe%er/ muc$ of t$e
success of -amGre"?s pragmatic reforms will depend on t$e consent of t$e military sector $eaded by
2iosdado (abello/ t$e president of t$e National )ssembly
ther de!elopments
+ussian President =ladimir Putin met with his Argentine counterpart) -ristina 4ern>nde9 de
"irchner) in 6uenos Aires on 12 %uly& ,$e meeting took place after Putin?s %isit to (uba as part of $is
Batin )merican tour a$ead of t$e si't$ B-#(+ summit Putin and 5irc$ner reac$ed a number of bilateral
agreements/ including an arrangement on nuclear cooperation Putin also e'pressed $is gratitude to
5irc$ner for $er support of t$e -ussian claim o%er t$e (rimea region 0oreo%er/ a -ussian committee is
e'pected to tra%el to t$e !aca 0uerta oil field/ w$ic$ is belie%ed to constitute t$e second largest
uncon%entional gas reser%e in t$e world

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A grenade attack left eight in@ured in the capital of Auatemala) Auatemala -ity) on 12 %uly& ,$e
e'plosi%e de%ice was t$rown at t$e premises of a fi""y drinks company in a %iolence;plagued
neig$bour$ood on t$e outskirts of t$e capital ) local gang carried out t$e attack according to police
sources O%er recent mont$s/ t$e 0ara 1I and 0ara +al%atruc$a gangs $a%e been battling for control of
t$e area and $a%e been targeting local businesses t$at refuse to pay protection money
n 1: %uly) the 8ominican +epublic and Baiti agreed to resume /mmigration talks& O%er t$e past year/
t$e issue of t$e legalisation of t$ousands of 7aitian migrants li%ing in t$e 2ominican -epublic $as plagued
t$e bilateral relations$ip between t$e two countries )lt$oug$ t$e 2ominican -epublic $as launc$ed a
process of regularisation on 2 June/ many 7aitians were left out due to t$e imposed identification
re<uirements #n a press conference following t$e talks/ 7aitian Prime 0inister Baurent Bamot$e stated
t$at t$e go%ernment would pro%ide t$e documentation at a discounted price for its poorest citi"ens #n a
parallel announcement/ t$e 2ominican 0inister of t$e Presidency &usta%o 0ontal%o re<uested t$at t$e
7aitian go%ernment end t$e current ban on imported 2ominican products
n the radar
-hinese President Ci %inping to !isit the Argentine capital) 6uenos Aires) on 1I July
El 6ar9Dn acti!ist group plan to protest in Me5icoEs capital) Me5ico city) on 28 July/ against t$e
go%ernment?s energy reforms
'i5th 6+/-' summit to take place in 4ortale9a) 6ra9il) on 19 July
Teachers affiliated to the #8-6A union plan to rally in the capital of Argentina) 6uenos
Aires) on 19 July o%er pay related issues ,$e rally will precede a strike t$at will commence on 1D
July
2: %uly marks /ndependence 8ay in -olombia&
Tra!ellers flying to the #nited 'tates should e5pect increased security measures to continue
following t$e go%ernment?s warning of a credible terrorist t$reat to a%iation
)sia and Pacific
/ndonesia awaits official results of presidential election while both candidates anticipate !ictory
#ndonesia?s presidential election was $eld on . July ,wo candidates contested t$e electionJ Prabowo
+ubianto and $is running mate/ 7atta -aHasa/ from t$e &reat #ndonesia 0o%ement Party 3&erindra4 ran
against Joko @idodo and Jusuf 5alla/ of t$e #ndonesian 2emocratic Party;+truggle 3P2#;P4 2ifferent
media sources t$roug$out t$e country reported different candidates as t$e %ictor in last week?s polls
+ubianto is reported to $a%e $eld a rally w$ere $e t$anked %oters for t$eir support and t$e mandate to
go%ern One difficulty is t$at alt$oug$ #ndonesia $as made efforts to de%elop an e;%oting system/ polling
stations across more t$an D/000 islands re<uire se%eral weeks to tally %otes )dditionally/ opposing
political forces e'ert considerable influence on %arious media outlets t$roug$out #ndonesia #t is e'pected
t$at t$e official count will be released by t$e go%ernment on 22 July

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Bast week?s presidential election follows legislati%e elections t$at were $eld on . )pril ,$ese legislati%e
elections saw a significant increase in seats $eld by bot$ t$e &erindra party and t$e P2#;P ,$e P2#;P won
10. seats/ t$e &olongan 5arya party won .1 seats and &erindra won :8 seats/ w$ile se%eral ot$er minority
parties split t$e remaining seats )ccording to #ndonesian electoral laws/ a party must win at least 29E of
t$e popular %ote in legislati%e elections in order to nominate a presidential candidate #n last mont$?s
legislati%e polls/ no party gained t$e re<uired percentage and t$us a coalition was formed ,$e coalition
agreement was c$allenged in t$e constitutional court/ but it was decided t$at no c$anges would be made
to t$e procedure for t$e 2014 elections
&erindra?s candidate/ +ubianto/ is t$e wealt$y son of a prominent former minister from t$e +u$arto
administration and was married to +u$arto?s daug$ter 7e is also a former general/ and was remo%ed from
t$e armed forces in 1..I for $is role in <uas$ing pro;democracy demonstrations 7e $as run for t$e
presidency t$ree times/ and represents a more $ea%y;$anded regime #ndeed/ $e $as been criticised as a
potential t$reat to democracy in #ndonesia (on%ersely/ t$e P2#;P candidate/ @idodo/ $ails from a far more
modest background/ and represents a more democratic and populist agenda @idodo?s critics $a%e raised
concerns t$at a strong leader w$o emp$asises stability is needed in a country as di%erse and as
geograp$ically sprawling as #ndonesia On t$e ot$er $and/ many belie%e t$at @idodo represents a
reformist tradition t$at $as roused #ndonesians to participate in public affairs &i%en t$e stark political
differences between t$e candidates/ and sporadic concerns of %ote manipulation and fraud t$roug$out
#ndonesia/ concerns are mounting t$at %iolence may ensue once t$e official results are known #ndeed/ as
t$e country prepares for its t$ird democratic transition of power/ t$e election results are certain to $a%e
wide;reac$ing implications for t$e implementation t$is latest transition in #ndonesia
ther de!elopments
%apanese 8efence Minister /tsunori nodera met with #' 8efence 'ecretary -huck Bagel on 11 %uly
in 7ashington 8- to discuss the recent reinterpretation of %apanEs military mandate& ,$e two officials
reportedly agreed t$at in lig$t of Japanese Prime 0inster +$in"o )be?s mo%e to e'pand t$e scope and
international role of its defence forces/ Japan s$ould formulate bilateral defence cooperation guidelines
)t t$e meeting/ t$e *nited +tates s$owed strong support for t$e effecti%e lifting of Japan?s ban on
collecti%e self;defence 2espite t$e 1 July decision to reinterpret Japan?s pacifist military mandate/ a
series of laws/ w$ic$ currently restrain t$e use of military force/ must be amended in order to aut$orise
engagement in collecti%e self;defence operations ,$ese re%isions will form a new set of legal constraints
on Japan?s military/ and are e'pected to be completed by t$e end of t$e year
-hina announced on 11 %uly that security forces had detained <2 suspected terrorists in Cin@iang& ,$e
indi%iduals $a%e been sentenced for allegedly spreading e'tremist information on t$e internet and by
mobile p$one/ creating terrorist organisations and constructing e'plosi%e de%ices ,$e sentences primarily
range from four to 19 years in lengt$/ t$oug$ two indi%iduals were gi%en life sentences ,$ese arrests are
a part of a year;long campaign against domestic terrorism ,$e campaign is in response to a string of
%iolent attacks in public areas and transportation facilities t$at began in October 2018 +ince t$e campaign
was launc$ed/ more t$an 400 people/ mostly in KinHiang/ $a%e been arrested for suspected terrorist
acti%ities

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n , %uly) North "orea launched two short*range rockets into the ocean& ,$e launc$ of t$e two scud;
type missiles/ w$ic$ landed in t$e waters off t$e eastern coast of t$e 5orean peninsula/ is t$e fourt$ set of
firings in t$e past two weeks ,$e actions followed an official state %isit by ($inese President K# Jinping to
+out$ 5orea ($ina $as traditionally been an important ally for Nort$ 5orea/ t$oug$ recent e%ents $a%e
indicated a s$ift in t$is $istorical alliance #n addition/ Nort$ 5orea appealed to +out$ 5orea for a
suspension of military actions and %erbal pro%ocation/ an appeal w$ic$ +out$ 5orea dismissed
n the radar
/ndian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend his first multilateral meeting as prime
minister on 1?*11 %uly at t$e si't$ summit of t$e $eads of state or go%ernment of B-#(+
A'EAN countries are e5pected to sign a free trade agreement with /ndia ne't mont$
The 'ingapore Armed 4orces and the +epublic of 'ingapore Air 4orce will be engaging in
military drills from 14 July to 1I July
'outh "orean members of parliament are e5pected to continue debating a contro!ersial anti*
corruption bill this month&
The #nited 'tates and 'outh "orea are to engage in @oint na!al e5ercises from 1D July to 21
July
>urope
Aermany chancellor e5pels -/A station chief in 6erlin as further #' spying acti!ities unco!ered
On 10 July/ t$e &erman go%ernment ordered t$e e'pulsion of t$e (#) station c$ief in Berlin ,$is follows
t$e disco%ery of a suspected *+ spy in t$e &erman defence ministry Hust days after t$e arrest of a worker
for t$e &erman foreign intelligence agency/ t$e Bundesnac$ric$tendienst 3BN24/ w$o is accused of being a
(#) informant ,$e BN2 official is belie%ed to $a%e been in%ol%ed in a &erman parliamentary in%estigation
into t$e acti%ities of foreign intelligence agencies/ including t$e N+)/ and is t$oug$t to $a%e $anded o%er
more t$an 200 documents/ including information about t$e parliamentary committee in%estigating t$e
*nited +tates? tapping of ($ancellor )ngela 0erkel?s p$one and *+ sur%eillance of &erman citi"ens
On 10 July/ 0erkel labelled spying on allies as a Lwaste of energy?/ and $er coalition partners $a%e called
for @as$ington to remo%e any *+ embassy staff in%ol%ed and to cease spying operations in &ermany
&erman foreign minister Arank;@alter +teinmeier discussed t$e spying allegations wit$ *+ +ecretary of
+tate Jo$n 5erry at t$e weekend in !ienna/ on t$e sidelines of a meeting focused on #ran and its nuclear
programme ,$e &erman go%ernment says its decision to e'pel t$e top (#) official in Berlin was a fitting
reaction to t$e breac$ of trust ,$is latest disclosure of spying by t$e *nited +tates upon &ermany $as
placed t$e close relations between t$e two countries in Heopardy ,$e latest de%elopments build on
&ermany?s increasing frustration at t$e failure of t$e *nited +tates to pro%ide assurances t$at it will cease
to spy on &erman citi"ens #t will e'ert significant pressure on t$e Obama administration following %erbal
guarantees from Barrack Obama to 0erkel during a %isit in 0ay t$at &ermany was not under constant
sur%eillance by t$e *nited +tates ,$e (#) declined to comment on t$e recent de%elopments/ but *+
officials did acknowledged t$at t$e (#) $ad been in%ol%ed in recruiting t$e detained official as an
informant o%er two years ago

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#t $as become e%ident t$at *+ espionage is damaging its relations$ips wit$ allies Bast week/ t$e @$ite
7ouse described t$e partners$ip between t$e *nited +tates and &ermany as one built on respectM
$owe%er/ t$e recent re%elations will make it $ard for Berlin to take @as$ington?s word for granted ,$e
*nited +tates relations$ip wit$ &ermany is particularly tense as/ despite re<uests to be included/ &ermany
is not part of a non;spying pact between t$e *nited +tates/ t$e *nited 5ingdom/ New Nealand/ )ustralia
and (anada O t$e Ai%e >yes intelligence alliance ,$e *nited +tates needs to repair relations wit$ &ermany
in order to garner crucial support for a range of issues/ including implementing toug$er sanctions against
-ussia o%er t$e crisis in *kraine ,$e *nited +tates is also in danger of alienating ot$er >uropean allies/
following 0erkel?s proposed establis$ment of a >uropean communications network in order to a%oid
emails and ot$er data automatically passing t$roug$ t$e *nited +tates
ther de!elopments
NAT secretary general Anders 4ogh +asmussen has warned that +ussia is playing a Fdouble gameE in
#kraine& 2uring a press conference in @as$ington on I July/ -asmussen cautioned t$at Putin?s recent
moderate statements represented tactics intended to fend off anot$er round of economic sanctions by
t$e @est/ and t$at -ussia $as continued to mass its troops along its border wit$ *kraine/ w$ile allowing
e<uipment and arms to be smuggled by separatists into eastern *kraine ,$e secretary general added t$at
it was $ig$ly likely t$at -ussia $ad also supplied weapons to pro;-ussian acti%ists in *kraine -asmussen
belie%es t$at t$ere is no doubt t$at t$e 5remlin is $ea%ily engaged in destabilising eastern *kraine and
weakening t$e new go%ernment in 5ie% -asmussen also called for t$e N),O alliance to res$ape in t$e
face of a rise in -ussian military spending and a fall in N),O members? military e'penditures
n $ %uly) the +ussian foreign minister) 'ergei 2a!ro!) !isited 6ulgaria for talks regarding the
resumption of construction of the 'outh 'tream gas pipeline& ,$e pipeline is designed to transport
-ussian natural gas %ia t$e Black +ea to t$e >uropean *nion/ t$us reducing -ussia?s dependence on
*krainian gas transit Ba%ro% emp$asised t$e importance of t$e construction remaining on sc$edule/ but
also conceded t$at dialogue s$ould remain open between countries participating in t$e construction and
t$e >uropean (ommission #n June/ Bulgaria $alted t$e proHect after t$e >uropean *nion?s e'ecuti%e arm
re<uested t$e suspension of construction following concerns t$at Bulgaria $ad broken t$e >*?s public
procurement laws by fa%ouring local and -ussian bidders -ussia claimed t$at t$ese concerns were
retaliations for t$e conflict in *kraine/ as &ennady ,imc$enko/ t$e c$airman of +troyatansga"/ w$ic$ is
in%ol%ed in pipeline construction/ $as been sanctioned by t$e *nited +tates o%er -ussia?s role in t$e crisis
in *kraine +out$ +tream is sc$eduled to start operations in 2019 and is e'pected to deli%er D8 billion cubic
meters of natural gas per year
n 11 %uly) pro*+ussian separatists fired missiles at military forces in the Gelenopole border post
near 2ugansk) killing 2< and in@uring another ,< soldiers& On 10 July/ -ussia closed t$ree maHor border
crossings near 2onetsk due to fig$ting between t$e rebels and *krainian forces On I July/ *krainian
President Petro Poros$enko appointed !asyl &rytsak as t$e new c$ief of military operations in eastern
*kraine ,$is is a signal t$at 5ie% is intent on pressing a$ead wit$ t$e military operation )lso on I July/ t$e
*krainian defence minister/ !alery 7eletey/ stated t$at a new ceasefire would not be on t$e cards until
t$e rebels $ad laid down t$eir arms

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n the radar
The election of the European -ommission President will be held in 'trasbourg) 4rance) on 19
July
-atherine Ashton) the high representati!e of the European #nion for foreign affairs and
security policy) will lead nuclear talks with /ran in =ienna) Austria) from 14 July
The annual +elief of 2ondonderry parade will be held on , August in 2ondonderry) Northern
/reland) commemorating t$e end of a 109;day siege of t$e city in 1DI.
4our European commissioners will be appointed on 1; %uly by a plenary session of t$e
>uropean Parliament
/nterior ministers of 4rance and Aermany will begin a two*day !isit to 'erbia on 14 July
0iddle >ast
Palestinian death toll rises as /srael continues military offensi!e against the Aa9a 'trip
)n #sraeli military offensi%e against t$e &a"a +trip began on I July following growing tensions between
t$e two sides in t$e aftermat$ of t$e murders of t$ree #sraeli teenagers and t$e torture and murder of a
Palestinian teenager ,o date/ t$e #sraeli 2efence Aorce 3#2A4 $as targeted :90 sites wit$in &a"a belie%ed
to be $ousing members of 7amas/ w$ic$ #srael blames for t$e murder of t$e #sraeli teenagers ,$e latest
airstrikes $a%e increased t$e Palestinian deat$ toll to at least 1:2 3::E of w$ic$ are ci%ilians according to
a *N estimate4/ wit$ upwards of 1/100/ people wounded/ including women and c$ildren *N-@) is
reportedly s$eltering 1:/000 Palestinians w$o $a%e fled t$e bombardment #n response/ 7amas and ot$er
militant groups $a%e continued to fire rockets across t$e border into #sraeli territory/ t$oug$ no #sraeli
deat$s $a%e been reported as a result 2espite t$e successful interception of many of t$e rockets by
#srael?s #ron 2ome aerial defence system/ t$e scale of t$e latest foray of rocket launc$es by 7amas
indicates a de%elopment of t$e organisation?s strike capacity
,$e *N +ecurity (ouncil met on 10 July to discuss t$ese latest de%elopments/ wit$ *N +ecretary &eneral
Ban 5i 0oon urging restraint from bot$ parties/ and appealing for a ceasefire agreement to be arranged
Aurt$er concern was e'pressed o%er t$e number of ci%ilian causalities and t$e limited capacity of $ealt$
ser%ices wit$in Palestine to deal wit$ t$e crisis +eparately/ fi%e cross;border rockets targeted #srael?s
nort$ern border wit$ Bebanon on 11 July/ a day after *N peacekeepers were deployed to t$e area amid
rising tensions in &a"a #sraeli troops retaliated wit$ artillery fire toward t$e source in sout$ern Bebanon
#t is unclear w$o is responsible for t$is attackM $owe%er/ sout$ Bebanon remains a strong$old for t$e +$ia
militant group 7e"bolla$/ and is also $ome to numerous al;=aeda linked +unni rebels )s suc$/ t$is recent
attack prompts concerns t$at ot$er radical factions wit$in t$e region may also now target #sraeli territory
#sraeli special forces are known to $a%e carried out at least one brief incursion into &a"a/ and t$e #2A
continues to $int at a broader ground offensi%e/ calling up some 40/000 reser%ists ,$e #sraeli ambassador
to t$e *nited Nations/ -on Prosor/ told t$e *N +ecurity (ouncil in ,$ursday1s meeting t$at 7amas
represents an indiscriminate t$reat and would not be tolerated by t$e go%ernment @it$ little indication
t$at 7amas will surrender its arms/ rocket fire into #srael can be e'pected to continue o%er t$e coming
days and weeks ) wide range of %oices continue to call on #srael to e'ercise restraint and do more to
reduce t$e disproportionately $ig$ number of ci%ilian casualties t$eir actions are causing in &a"a
Open Briefing | ,
ther de!elopments
Bouthi rebels captured the city of FAmran) northwest Hemen) on ( %uly& ,$e capture follows weeks of
fig$ting between t$e Naidi +$ia group and conser%ati%e +unni tribes in t$e region L)mran/ :0 kilometres
nort$ of t$e capital/ +anaa/ $ad pre%iously been a strong$old of t$e Bani al;)$mar tribe ,$e deat$ toll
from t$e latest offensi%e is belie%ed to $a%e reac$ed 200/ wit$ a furt$er 19/000 people displaced from t$e
region O raising t$e country1s internal displacement figure to 89/000 according to a state refugee agency
7out$i fig$ters wit$in L)mran are belie%ed to $a%e gained t$e support of local tribes wit$in t$e
go%ernorate/ many of w$om remain angered at t$e central go%ernment and nort$ern tribal confederation
The /raIi parliament has failed to reach consensus on the country3s political future) resulting in the
postponement of the session on ( %uly& ) breakdown in negotiations followed t$e failure of t$e t$ree
political blocs to nominate positions of speaker/ prime minister and president wit$ clear political
mandates Parliament was originally postponed until 12 )ugustM $owe%er/ t$e arrangement was re%ised
following international pressure ,$e 5urdis$ regional go%ernment and its president/ 0assoud Bar"ani/
$a%e responded by stating t$at ministers will continue to boycott meetings until #ra<i President Nouri al;
0aliki steps down
-ross*border mortars struck Arar in the northern pro!ince of 'audi Arabia on $ %uly& ,$ree e'plosi%es
landed outside apartment buildings in t$e latest offensi%e directed towards +audi )rabia following cross;
border raids in t$e country1s sout$ern town of al;+$arua$ on 4 July t$at resulted in 10 fatalities ,$e latest
attack is likely to increase concerns t$at t$e world?s largest oil e'porter is struggling to contain t$e
militant t$reat on t$eir nort$ern and sout$ern borders 6emeni groups affiliated wit$ al;=aeda $a%e long
e'pressed t$eir intent to depose t$e ruling al;+aud royal family/ and to establis$ a calip$ate in 0ecca ,$e
5ingdom continues to step;up security along its borders and to monitor de%elopments in relation to +$ia
militants in nort$ern 6emen and #slamic +tate of #ra< and t$e Be%ant fig$ters in #ra<
n the radar
/ncreased risk of militant acti!ity possible around AfghanistanEs /ndependence 8ay on 1.
)ugust
+allies are anticipated in areas of /raI with a 'hiite ma@ority on the anni!ersary of the
martyrdom of /mam Ali on 20 July
'panish parliamentary delegation to !isit Tehran) /ran) on 11 %uly) to $old talks on bilateral
relations
Audit of ballots in AfghanistanEs disputed presidential election is e5pected to begin following
t$e %isit of *+ +ecretary of +tate Jo$n 5erry to t$e country in an attempt to resol%e t$e current
deadlock
21 August marks the 1,*year anni!ersary of the Bamas*claimed bomb attack on a bus in
%erusalem t$at killed si' people and inHured o%er 100 more

Open Briefing | 1:
Polar regions
Threefold increase in +ussian strategic bomber flights o!er Arctic cean
,$e $ead of -ussia?s >astern 0ilitary 2istrict?s press ser%ice/ (olonel )leksandr &ordee%/ $as announced
t$at t$e number of ,*;.9 strategic;bomber flig$ts o%er t$e )rctic Ocean $as increased t$reefold o%er t$e
last year )ccording to &ordee%/ t$e ,*;.9s/ based out of t$e )mur -egion in -ussia?s far east/ will $elp
-ussia guarantee its interests in t$e )rctic/ adding t$at all flig$ts are carried out in strict obser%ance wit$
international norms for t$e regulation of air space and wit$out any incursions into t$e so%ereign territory
of ot$er states Neig$bouring +weden reported t$at +wedis$ fig$ter Hets were scrambled to meet
potential -ussian t$reats from training e'ercises in t$e Baltic/ and claimed t$at t$ey are scrambling
appro'imately 90E more often t$an two years ago
,$e announcements from -ussian and +wedis$ officials confirm trends pre%iously obser%ed by security
analysts and Hournalists in -ussia and its neig$bouring states -ussian military proHection into t$e )rctic
$as proceeded at a considerable pace o%er t$e last couple of years Once mot$balled +o%iet;era military
bases in t$e )rctic and near t$e Baltic and Barents seas $a%e been reopened -ussia $as been ree<uipping
its Nort$ern Aleet and army di%isions based in t$e Aar Nort$/ as well as retraining army di%isions for )rctic
conflict/ including a successful airdrop of paratroopers o%er t$e Nort$ Pole +weden and Ainland $a%e long
been documenting t$e increased -ussian air presence in t$e Baltic/ and (anadian defence minister -ob
Nic$olson spoke recently in parliament about t$e Lneed for %igilance? in t$e face of an increase in -ussian
military acti%ity in t$e )rctic
-ussian military officials insist t$at t$e increased acti%ity is necessary to proHect -ussian so%ereignty into
t$e )rctic and to defend economic interests/ suc$ as t$e Prira"lomnaya &a"prom oil rig in t$e Pec$ora +ea/
from possible terrorist attack/ suc$ as was allegedly committed by a &reenpeace protest targeting t$e rig
in +eptember 2018 ,$is was almost certainly t$e main reason be$ind t$e military build;up o%er t$e last
two years/ t$oug$ t$e fanfare t$at often accompanied it suggested t$at 0oscow was also trying to
resonate wit$ a domestic audience 7owe%er/ t$e dramatic increase in recent mont$s is likely to ser%e yet
anot$er moti%eJ many (anadian and *+ military officials $a%e interpreted t$e increase in strategic bomber
flig$ts near t$eir countries borders as Lstrategic messaging? from 0oscow/ wit$ -ussia attempting to
punis$ (anada and t$e *nited +tates for t$eir critical stance on t$e crisis in *kraine ,$is crisis $as acted as
a catalyst to t$e already long;obser%ed tendency of 0oscow to use military r$etoric as a means of sending
messages to bot$ internal and e'ternal audiences @it$ t$e crisis likely to continue into t$e immediate
future/ and wit$ -ussia more and more con%inced of t$e need to protect its economic interests in t$e
)rctic/ an end to -ussia?s military build;up in t$e )rctic s$ould not be e'pected any time soon @$ile t$is
trend is unlikely to e%ol%e into a rapid arms race wit$ neig$bouring )rctic states/ t$ere is e%idence t$at t$e
region is gradually militarisingJ for e'ample/ +weden is planning an increase of almost P1 billion to its
annual defence budget/ and (anada is discussing t$e purc$ase of a new fleet of A;19s 3>agle4 from t$e
*nited +tates

Open Briefing | 11
ther de!elopments
Acti!ists from the 'ea 'hepard -onser!ation 'ociety ha!e descended on the 4aroe /slands to
denounce the annual whale killing tradition commonly known as Fthe grindE& O%er 900 acti%ists are
protesting on land and sea and intend to do so up to t$e dates of t$e annual e%ent in October ,$e grind
in%ol%es t$e killing of 1/000 pilot w$ales/ a tradition t$at $as been criticised for many years Police on t$e
island $a%e been prepared for suc$ protests and are confident t$at t$ey are able to negate any clas$es/
w$ile 2anis$ intelligence ser%ices $a%e been monitoring t$e situation
-anadaEs National Energy 6oard .NE60 has agreed to re!iew contingency plans from /mperial il and
-he!ron -anada before they file formal applications to drill in the 6eaufort 'ea& Bot$ energy
companies $a%e re<uested t$at t$e N>B re%iews t$eir contingency plans in t$e e%ent of a ruptured oil well
before submitting t$eir formal applications and $ea%ily in%esting in t$e proHect in t$e )rctic waters ,$e
N>B re%iewed its rules in t$e )rctic drilling regulatory process following t$e BP 2eepwater 7ori"on
blowout in t$e &ulf of 0e'ico in 2010
The -hinese icebreaker Cuelong .'now 8ragon0 has set off from 'hanghai on its si5th Arctic
e5pedition& ,$e icebreaker departed on 11 July/ and will tra%el t$roug$ t$e Bering +trait/ ($ukc$i +ea/
(anada Basin and t$e Bering +ea #ts primary task is to focus on t$e )rctic1s s$ifting condition and its
impact on ($ina1s climate and en%ironment
n the radar
/nuit -ircumpolar -ouncil ./--0 will hold its four*yearly general assembly in /nu!ik) -anada)
between 21;24 July to debate arctic issues and de%elopments
/nternational -onference and E5hibition on Performance of 'hips and 'tructures in /ce will be
held in 6anff) -anada) on 2I;81 July/ and will address a number of topics/ including na%al
arc$itecture/ icebreaking s$ips/ marine operations safety/ risk and en%ironmental protection
A meeting of high*le!el representati!es of the Arctic states will take place ;*$ August in
Naryan;0ar/ -ussia
Arctic -ouncil -onser!ation of Arctic 4lora and 4auna .-A440 working group will hold a board
meeting in Nuna!ut) -anada) on 29;2. )ugust
4ollowing its May 2:1? meeting) the Alaska Arctic Policy -ommission will hold its ne5t
meeting in Nome and "ot9ebue) Alaska) #nited 'tates) on 2D;2: )ugust


Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www&bradburys&co&uk

Open Briefing | 12
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Analysts: ($ris )bbott/ 2erek (rystal/ -oger 0ars$all/ Baura 7artmann/ ,ancrQde Aeuillade/ +op$ie ,aylor/
(laudia @agner/ 0att$ew (ouillard/ and Patrick +ewell