Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DEAR NEIGHBOR,
“Real Estate is Great at CENTURY 21 New Millennium!” and policy which influence our client’s contemplated trans-
“We at New Millennium are focused on transforming action. We’ve acquired firms and expanded our footprint in
the real estate industry by integrating and efficiently market conditions which caused others to fail. We’ve
delivering those services our clients value. We are “integrated and efficiently delivered those services our
known for being forward-thinking and for the passion- clients value.” Firms that don’t lend, provide title and es-
ate pursuit of our goals. We endeavor to create an crow services, insure or manage property are simply not
environment in which we all grow individually and as prepared to fulfill their client’s needs. Now is no time to do
a team. We work hard, innovate, communicate hon- business with strangers. Sometimes the “harder-right” is
Tony Lopez estly, and choose the harder-right rather than the recommending our client not complete a transaction which
Realtor/ Consultant easier-wrong. For all involved, we strive to do every- would have paid a commission. Our success is due to rela-
thing in a way that is fun, fair and profitable.” tionships of trust and we will not violate that trust; period.
CONTINGENT RISK
When the housing bubble burst, many blamed the resets of adjustable rate mortgages. As you can
see in the graph to the right, we are now through the bulk of the sub-prime resets. What we are now
facing is likely the most challenging reset; the Option Adjustable Arm.
These are loans that not only featured an adjustable rate, but allowed the borrower to select a mini-
mum payment that was less than the interest payment, adding to the principal balance monthly.
Many of these borrowers will soon see their minimum payment increase substantially and will not be
eligible to refinance because they owe considerably more than their home is worth. Regardless of
their qualifications, this is the segment of borrowers most likely to strategically default rather than
make huge payments on an asset not worth what they owe.
Since TARP did not buy these mortgages, it will be up to the banks to deal with these assets. This is
the segment where merely resetting an interest rate to a low fixed rate might not be enough to keep
the borrower interested. These are the borrowers most likely to owe twice what their home is worth.
The good news: if we can navigate through these resets without having inventory levels spike, home
values will remain stable and begin to appreciate modestly. Banks are happy to keep people in their
homes so long as values are not declining. We will have cleared the bulk of the risk by 2012, result-
ing in a return to a housing market which can stand on it’s own.
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MARKET TRENDS | BUYER CONSIDERATIONS
First time buyers remain eligible for up to an $8,000 credit but the income caps
have been raised to $125,000 for individuals and $225,000 for couples filing jointly.
The credit is also available to those earning slightly more but is phased out over the
next $20,000 in income. Move up buyers are eligible for up to a $6,500 credit so
long as they have owned and occupied a home as their primary residence for five of
the last eight years.
To be eligible for the credit, you must have a binding contract to purchase a prop-
erty before April 30th of 2010 and settle that transaction by the end of June 2010.
Please call me for details if you feel you may be able to benefit from this program.
Obviously the government is providing buyer incentives to encourage demand at the same time they are urging lenders to view foreclosure as a last resort.
As you can see in the graph below, inventory levels continue to decline while sales are trending upward. The combination of these trends has stabilized val-
ues, giving lenders more options to consider with their non-performing borrowers.
This housing cycle is very different from those we’ve experienced in the past. Housing is at the center of the banking crisis and it is probable that no one
really wants to know the true value of the total negative equity in residential property. This is why the “mark to market” accounting standards were relaxed. It
doesn’t seem probable that the government will be willing to allow the recent foreclosure cycle to repeat itself; they will continue to incent lender programs
which keep people in their homes and limit inventory.
It also makes sense that keeping interest rates low will continue to trump concerns over inflation. We will likely see rates rise marginally over the next several
months, but not to a level that takes a substantial number of buyers out of the market. Buyers in more modest price ranges are the most at risk of being left
behind as rates begin to creep up. These are also the price points where we have seen appreciation return in the last twelve months.
Assuming values have stabilized, the most important variable becomes interest rates. The mortgage payment at 5% on a thirty year fixed rate program is
$5.36 per thousand dollars borrowed. For each incremental quarter of a point in interest rate, the payment increases by 16.2 cents. It doesn’t sound like
much, but the difference in the payment for a $100,000 principal balance at six percent rather that five, is $63 per month or $763 per year. With an average
sales price in our regional market over $300,000, that means paying almost $2,300 a year, or $190 a month more for the same purchase price.
If you are weighing a purchase decision, it will pay to take action. The tax credits combined with the likelihood of interest rate hikes are a significant motivator.
That is exactly what they are intended to accomplish.
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CENTURY 21 NEW MILLENNIUM | REAL ESTATE NEWS
SUMMARY
If you are considering a real estate transaction, thorough analysis and competent representation are
essential. We are in a transitioning market. There is potential for profit, as is there risk of loss. If we
understand the underlying facts, we can continue to make good business decisions logically and
without emotion. I am a real estate professional and accept responsibility for keeping my friends,
neighbors and business community informed as to all aspects of things affecting the real estate por-
tion of their holdings.
If you are currently listed for sale, this is not a solicitation. If you have a real estate question, I will be
happy to answer it, or find the answer. If you have a real estate need, I will appreciate an opportunity
to compete for your business. Our team is very good at what we do...our results demonstrate that. Tony Lopez
Don’t settle for less. Realtor / Consultant
Sincerely,
5990 Kingstowne Towne Center
tony.lopez@c21nm.com
Tony Lopez
http://tonylopez.c21nm.com
703-963-3208