8 Risk Analysis in Power Systems

The primary function of a power system is to supply its customers with electrical energy as
economically as possible with acceptable reliability and quality. However, electrical power
systems are very complex and highly integrated, hence failures in any part of the system
can cause interruptions of supply to end users. Risk analysis of electric power systems is
conducted to identify possible chains of events that could lead to wide-area interruptions,
and to further identify the consequences of cascading failures, for example in other critical
infrastructures.
In assessing the vulnerability of power systems to major disturbances, concepts of risk and
reliability are important. The reliability of a power system is its ability to satisfy the
customer demand. Risk, is a general term, applicable in financial and engineering
environments referring to the chance of bad consequences or exposure to mischance.
Power system reliability can further be explained in terms of: System Adequacy and
System Security. System Adequacy involves the existence of sufficient facilities in the
system to satisfy the customer demand. System security, meanwhile, concerns the ability
of the system to respond to disturbances. Power systems have to maintain certain levels of
static and spinning reserves in order to achieve a required level of adequacy and security.
The key security related decisions are shown in table below.
Time frame
Decision-
maker
Decision
Basis for
decision
On-line assessment
(Minutes to hours)
Operator
How to constrain the
economic operation to
maintain the normal
state
Operating rules,
online assessment,
and cost
Operational
planning
(Hours to months)
Analyst
What should be the
operating rules?
Minimum operating
criteria, reliability,
and cost
Planning
(Months to years)
Analyst
How to reinforce/
maintain the
transmission system?
Reliability criteria
for system design
and cost

Power system reliability can be assessed using Deterministic or probabilistic methods. The
deterministic methods include N-1 criterion or contingency list. Probabilistic methods apply
Monte Carlo Simulation and other analytical techniques.
8.1 Shortfalls of N-1 Criterion
The N-1 criterion expresses the ability of the transmission system to lose a linkage without
causing an overload failure elsewhere. N-1 criterion requires that the system shall remain
within acceptable operating limits after a contingency (such as the loss of a single line,
transformer or generator). The N-2 criterion is a higher level of system security, where the
system can withstand any two linkages going down.
The main weaknesses of the N-1 criterion are:
- Multiple component failures are excluded from consideration;
- Only the outcomes of single-component failure events are analysed but their
probabilities of occurrence are neglected.
The N-1 criterion can be shown mathematically to be insufficient as follows (Source:
Audomvongseree K. Consideration of an appropriate TTC by probabilistic approach, IEEE
Trans. Power Systems, Vol. 19, No.1, pp. 375-383, 2004):
Consider a power system containing n equipment with identical unavailability p. The
probabilities of all N-1 and N-2 events are:







When N-2 dominates N-1:




That is, for p=0.01, when n >199, N-2 events are more possible. Similarly, when n > 299, N-3
events are more possible than N-2 events. When p is smaller, n will be bigger under the
same situation.
8.2 Analytical Methods of assessing System Security
Analytical methods of risk assessment in power systems have been widely used for years.
Analytical techniques are used in calculating the load point and system average
p p n
p p C P
n
n
n N
=
=

1
1 1
1
) 1 (
) 1 (
2 2
2 2 2
2
) 1 (
2
) 1 (
) 1 (
p p
n n
p p C P
n
n
n N

=
=

p p n p p
n n
n n
>

1 2 2
) 1 ( ) 1 (
2
) 1 (
1
) 1 ( 2
+

>
p
p
n
performance indices. The overall system reliability can be calculated from failure rate,
repair time, and unavailability of system components as shown below.

Mean Time To Failure (MTTF):

Mean Time To Repair (MTTR):

Availability A:



Unavailability A:

Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF): MTBF = MTTF+MTTR

Failure frequency f :

Suppose a 50MW generator has








The reliability of a system depends on the reliability of the components involved, and
systems topology. For series connected systems,
Availability,

1
= MTTF

1
= MTTR
| |
| | | | time down time up
time up
MTTR MTTF
MTTF
A
+

=
+
=
+
=
+
=

1 1
1
A A =1
A A
MTBF
f = = =
1
year times
year times
/ 350
/ 68 . 5
=
=

) year ( 17606 . 0
1
= =

MTTF
) ( 0.00286
1
year MTTR = =

98403 . 0
350 68 . 5
350
=
+
=
+
=
+
=


MTTR MTTF
MTTF
A
) / ( 589 . 5 98403 . 0 68 . 5 year times A A f = = = =
[ [
= =
+
= =
n
i i i
i
n
i
i s
A A
1 1




Consider a simple power supply system as show below.

If the availability of each component is: generator A
1
=0.990099, transformer A
2
=0.999933,
bus-bar A
3
=0.999965, circuit breaker A
4
=0.999833, transmission line A
5
=0.999334. The
availability, A
s
, of the whole system is calculated as:



For parallel connections, the system fails only when all components fail. Unavailability of
parallel connected systems is given by:


Consider two transformers in parallel operation, with statistics as given below.


The failure rate of and MTTF of this parallel connected system can be calculated as follows:

=
= + + + =
n
i
i n s
1
2 1

988907 . 0
999334 . 0 999833 . 0 999965 . 0 999933 . 0 990099 . 0
2 2 2
5
1
=
= =
[
= i
i s
A A

[
=
=
= + + + =
+
=
+
=
n
i
i n s
s s
s
n
i i i
i
s
A
1
2 1
1

s s
s
i i
i
i i i
i
s
s
i
i
i
A
year times
year times
MTTR
MTTR

+
=
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
=
+
=
= = + =
= = =
=

=
[
=
2
2
1
2 1
/ 08 . 70 04 . 35 2
/ 04 . 35
02854 . 0
1 1
02854 . 0
24 365
250
2 , 1
250
/ 05 . 0
=
=
=
i
h MTTR
year times
i
i

37 . 351
4 . 7027
1
/ 10 1423 . 0
08 . 70 04 . 35 05 . 0
05 . 0
3
2
=
= =
=
+
=
|
.
|

\
|
+

s
i
s
s
s
s
s
year MTTF
year times

In order to calculate the overall reliability of an integrated system, break the system down
into series connected subsystem and parallel connected subsystems.
8.3 Assessing Risks in Power Systems using Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation is a computerised mathematical technique used when faced with
decisions under uncertain circumstances. Monte Carlo simulation provides decision-makers
with a range of possible outcomes and the probabilities they will occur for any choice of
action.
The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method defines the system as made up of
component states. This concept is based on the fact that a system state is a combination of
all component states and each component state can be determined by sampling the
probability of the component appearing in that state. Each component can be modelled
using a uniform distribution between [0, 1].
Sampling the system state, involves changing loads at each iteration of the algorithm.
Load is changed thus:
- Base load + randomly variation; or according to
- Load duration curve.
The availability of system components is decided randomly (non-sequential Monte Carlo
Simulation).
It is assumed that each component has two states of failure and success, and component
failures are independent of each other.
Let S
i
denote the state of the ith component and Q
i
its failure probability. Then, a random
number R
i
distributed uniformly between [0,1] for the ith component, is defined as:

The state of the system containing N components is expressed by the vector S:







After a system state is selected in the sampling, the analysis is performed to judge whether
it is a failure state or not, and if yes, a risk index function for that state is evaluated.
When the number of samples is sufficiently large, the sampling frequency of the system
states can be used as an unbiased estimate of its probability:

where M is the number of samples and m(s) is the number of occurrences of the system
states in the sampling.
Once the probability of each system state is estimated in the sampling, the system failure
probability, system failure frequency, mean system failure duration, and other system risk
indices can then be calculated.
For more accurate evaluation of frequency and duration indices, sequential Monte Carlo
method is preferred. Sequential Monte Carlo simulation process incorporates chronological
time span. It provides flexibility of modelling any state-duration distribution, and the
capacity of calculating statistical probability distributions of system risk indices.