ECON 2550 Assignment 2

Dmitry Kosarev 201200805

Province to be analyzed: Ontario

Contents
Annual series.3
Quarterly series15
Monthly series..26

Annual series
Table 1830006 - Sales of alcoholic beverages by volume, value and per capita 15 years and over, fiscal
years ended March 31, annually
V130436 Ontario; Total sales; Total alcoholic beverages; Value in dollars; Total products(1950 to 2012,
Data: 63)
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

Total sales
196789000
210473000
228008000
275227000
288404000
258646000
278685000
292842000
316704000
326087000
350211000
360867000
371599000
393963000
421183000
450653000
494036000
511229000
559759000
654500000
647450000
697365000
790158000
884145000
966892000
1090818000
1208149000
1325200000
1431054000
1549113000
1661206000
1904564000
2182465000
2482646000
2630397000
2761505000
2966885000
3218698000

1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

3451124000
3633081000
3754975000
3746399000
3780786000
3764355000
3709299000
3813527000
3948001000
4034262000
4222057000
4498488000
4793705000
4961984000
5274609000
5502831000
5747088000
5982324000
6217284000
6394649000
6616439000
6724183000
6756591000
7056158000
7291292000

Linear model regression data

0
-1E+10
1E+10
0
SUMMARY OUTPUT
1
1

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.961206098
R Square
0.923917163
Adjusted R Square
0.922533839
Standard Error
538364796
Observations
57
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
55
56
Coefficients

Intercept
Slope

SS
1.93581E+20
1.5941E+19
2.09522E+20
Standard Error

MS
F
1.93581E+20 667.8962824
2.89837E+17

t Stat

-991021976.8
112015043.4

144513736.5
4334328.647

-6.857631676
25.84368941

Predicted Linear
sales
-879006933.5
-766991890.1
-654976846.7
-542961803.4
-430946760
-318931716.6
-206916673.3
-94901629.92
17113413.45
129128456.8
241143500.2
353158543.5
465173586.9
577188630.3
689203673.6
801218717
913233760.3
1025248804
1137263847

Residuals
1089479933
994999890.1
930203846.7
831365803.4
689592760
597616716.6
499758673.3
411605629.9
308973586.6
221082543.2
119723499.8
18440456.46
-71210586.9
-156005630.3
-238550673.6
-307182717
-402004760.3
-465489803.7
-482763847.1

Standard Residuals
2.041997711
1.864915026
1.743468666
1.558217839
1.292494515
1.120105043
0.936691017
0.771466944
0.579105073
0.414372063
0.224396159
0.034562702
-0.133469053
-0.292399273
-0.447112347
-0.57574847
-0.753472162
-0.872461332
-0.904837841

P-value
6.45289E-09
1.91305E-32

Significance F
1.91305E-32

Lower 95%

-1280633974 70140
103328854.7
1207

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

Uppe

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57

1249278890
1361293934
1473308977
1585324021
1697339064
1809354107
1921369151
2033384194
2145399237
2257414281
2369429324
2481444367
2593459411
2705474454
2817489498
2929504541
3041519584
3153534628
3265549671
3377564714
3489579758
3601594801
3713609844
3825624888
3937639931
4049654975
4161670018
4273685061
4385700105
4497715148
4609730191
4721745235
4833760278
4945775321
5057790365
5169805408
5281820451
5393835495

-601828890.4
-663928933.8
-683150977.2
-701179020.5
-730447063.9
-718536107.3
-713220150.6
-708184194
-714345237.3
-708301280.7
-708223324.1
-576880367.4
-410994410.8
-222828454.2
-187092497.5
-167999540.9
-74634584.24
65163372.4
185574329
255516285.7
265395242.3
144804198.9
67176155.58
-61269887.78
-228340931.1
-236127974.5
-213669017.9
-239423061.2
-163643104.6
772852.0439
183974808.7
240238765.3
440848722
557055678.6
689297635.2
812518591.9
935463548.5
1000813505

-1.127999864
-1.244393147
-1.280420767
-1.314210488
-1.369067192
-1.346742644
-1.336779018
-1.327340191
-1.338887753
-1.327559645
-1.327413532
-1.08123918
-0.770321344
-0.4176444
-0.350664973
-0.314879299
-0.139886606
0.12213484
0.34781949
0.478910767
0.497426764
0.271404579
0.125907373
-0.114837334
-0.427976362
-0.442571514
-0.400476991
-0.448747451
-0.306714089
0.001448546
0.344821531
0.450276314
0.826276881
1.04408203
1.291941366
1.522892762
1.753326855
1.875811407

AR(1) model regression data

1

1E+10
0
SUMMARY
OUTPUT
2

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.999192833
R Square
0.998386318
Adjusted R Square
0.998356435
Standard Error
78317919.75
Observations
56
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
54
55

SS
2.04926E+20
3.3122E+17
2.05257E+20

Intercept
X variable 1

Coefficients
38712912.94
1.032845271

Standard Error
16179183.55
0.005650645

Predicted
210473000
256098955.6
274209897.4
322979818.3
336589620.4
305854210.9
326551397.2
341173387.7
365819141.6
375510328.8
400426688.1
411432687.3
422517182.7
445615734.4
473729782.6
504167732.8

Residuals
-28090955.62
1017102.552
-34575818.29
-77943620.42
-27169210.86
-33709397.24
-24469387.74
-39732141.59
-25299328.76
-39559688.08
-39833687.28
-28554182.73
-24432734.37
-23076782.64
-10131732.77

MS
2.04926E+20
6.1337E+15

F
Significance F
33409.8416 4.41729E-77

t Stat
P-value
2.3927606 0.020229901
182.7835923 4.41729E-77

Lower 95%
Uppe
6275603.159 71150
1.021516409 1.0441

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Standard Residuals
-0.361984384
0.01310654
-0.445549324
-1.004393506
-0.350106639
-0.434384488
-0.315316302
-0.5119945
-0.32601105
-0.509772238
-0.513303034
-0.3679536
-0.314843981
-0.297370978
-0.13055907

16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

548975659.2
566733367.9
616857348.9
714710142.7
707428583.5
758983055.2
854823866.4
951897894.9
1037362743
1165359126
1286543894
1407439466
1516770269
1638706949
1754481674
2005832833
2292861567
2602902093
2755506015
2890920293
3103046054
3363129920
3603190015
3791123442
3917021084
3908163403
3943679853
3926709172
3869844843
3977496240
4116387075
4205481341
4399444519
4684954970
4989868452
5163674621
5486567874
5722285887
5974565575
6217527965
6460205290

-37746659.15
-6974367.894
37642651.11
-67260142.69
-10063583.53
31174944.78
29321133.56
14994105.09
53455257.47
42789874.44
38656105.97
23614534.17
32342730.88
22499051.05
150082326.1
176632166.7
189784433.1
27494906.85
5998985.239
75964707.47
115651945.8
87994079.57
29890984.66
-36148442.28
-170622083.7
-127377402.7
-179324853
-217410172.4
-56317843.14
-29495240.02
-82125074.97
16575659.12
99043481.49
108750030.4
-27884451.88
110934378.8
16263126
24802112.6
7758425.291
-243964.8351
-65556289.67

-0.486409268
-0.08987278
0.485069004
-0.866724565
-0.129680888
0.401725143
0.377836646
0.193216349
0.688832687
0.551396917
0.498128539
0.304300527
0.416773415
0.28992624
1.933983986
2.276109324
2.445591456
0.354303607
0.077303848
0.978892929
1.490308798
1.133905272
0.385179835
-0.465814399
-2.198662468
-1.641404843
-2.310807695
-2.80158099
-0.725720407
-0.380080209
-1.058276374
0.213596498
1.276289568
1.401369653
-0.359323345
1.429517503
0.209569148
0.319603846
0.099976264
-0.003143768
-0.844768453

AR(2) model regression data

2
1
1
500000000
1E+10
-5E+08
0
0
SUMMARY OUTPUT
0
R
2

2
1

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.999560947
R Square
0.999122087
Adjusted R Square
0.999088321
Standard Error
58240660.52
Observations
55
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

2
52
54
Coefficients

SS
2.00735E+20
1.76383E+17
2.00911E+20
Standard Error

MS
F
1.00367E+20 29589.67938
3.39197E+15

t Stat

Intercept
X variable 1

17327947.86
1.718840593

12715793.47
0.101936728

X variable 2

-0.711123386

0.10553282

-6.738409804

Predicted
228008000
259565081.3
328257466.7
317328094.1
256808362.8
312413819.2
322497243.9
353444844.4
352603899.4
387396739.2
388557564
399426430.4
430234805.2
461118082.8
492415536.5
546027191.7
544728552.2
615917541.8

Residuals
15661918.65
-39853466.73
-58682094.06
21876637.17
-19571819.2
-5793243.938
-27357844.39
-2392899.436
-26529739.17
-16958563.96
-5463430.403
-9051805.245
-10465082.78
1620463.514
-34798191.74
15030447.8
38582458.2

Standard Residuals
0.27403995
-0.697324657
-1.026773188
0.382780213
-0.342452319
-0.101365632
-0.478686072
-0.041869075
-0.464196537
-0.296727632
-0.095594814
-0.158381378
-0.183109798
0.028353598
-0.608871426
0.262990969
0.675085548

P-value

1.362710704 0.178846391
16.86183803 9.93866E-23
1.29313E-08

Significance F
3.38644E-80

Lower 95%

Uppe
8188157.908 42844
1.514289588 1.9233
0.922890477 0.4993

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55

744251400.5
664761033.6
755570381.7
879571033
975132431.4
1050524980
1204690693
1318237302
1435992494
1534700943
1662350289
1771065772
2109647427
2414257382
2732598770
2773093457
2893378018
3153159534
3439935419
3660368550
3807840064
3887962541
3786540090
3851744455
3799048786
3716100766
3934403693
4091424095
4144065397
4405512851
4747108259
5057962674
5137271737
5554957145
5724919435
5982464280
6213100601
6449677566

-96801400.49
32603966.41
34587618.34
4573967.011
-8240431.435
40293019.71
3458307.209
6962698.34
-4938493.894
14412057.44
-1144289.212
133498228
72817572.72
68388618.09
-102201769.8
-11588457.12
73506981.84
65538465.75
11188580.55
-27287549.89
-52865063.53
-141563540.8
-5754089.847
-87389455.48
-89749785.82
97426233.52
13597307.04
-57162094.58
77991603.26
92975148.5
46596740.83
-95978673.76
137337262.8
-52126145.33
22168565.44
-140279.8553
4183399.333
-55028565.54

-1.69375487
0.570478594
0.605186978
0.080031682
-0.144184597
0.705015609
0.060510743
0.121827826
-0.086409887
0.252170861
-0.020021874
2.335847134
1.274104691
1.196610321
-1.788246291
-0.20276572
1.28616743
1.146740594
0.195768994
-0.477456114
-0.924991357
-2.476967641
-0.100680544
-1.529072049
-1.570371255
1.704687707
0.237914998
-1.000177431
1.364635813
1.626806118
0.81531317
-1.679359444
2.403019548
-0.912062347
0.387888145
-0.002454507
0.073197836
-0.962846616

Comparison of 3 models
Year

Coded
Year

Total sales

Linear Predicted
Sales

Absolute
Residuals

Absolute
Residuals

1089479933

AR(1)
Predicted
Sales
N/A

Absolute
Residuals

N/A

AR(2)
Predicted
Sales
N/A

1950

196789000

-879006933

1951

210473000

-766991890

994999890

256098956

28090956

N/A

N/A

1952

228008000

-654976847

930203847

274209897

1017103

259565081

15661919

1953

275227000

-542961803

831365803

322979818

34575818

328257467

39853467

1954

288404000

-430946760

689592760

336589620

77943620

317328094

58682094

1955
1956

258646000

-318931717

597616717

305854211

27169211

256808363

21876637

278685000

-206916673

499758673

326551397

33709397

312413819

19571819

1957

292842000

-94901630

411605630

341173388

24469388

322497244

5793244

1958

316704000

17113413

308973587

365819142

39732142

353444844

27357844

1959

326087000

129128457

221082543

375510329

25299329

352603899

2392899

1960

10

350211000

241143500

119723500

400426688

39559688

387396739

26529739

1961

11

360867000

353158544

18440456

411432687

39833687

388557564

16958564

1962

12

371599000

465173587

71210587

422517183

28554183

399426430

5463430

1963

13

393963000

577188630

156005630

445615734

24432734

430234805

9051805

1964

14

421183000

689203674

238550674

473729783

23076783

461118083

10465083

1965

15

450653000

801218717

307182717

504167733

10131733

492415536

1620464

1966

16

494036000

913233760

402004760

548975659

37746659

546027192

34798192

1967

17

511229000

1025248804

465489804

566733368

6974368

544728552

15030448

1968

18

559759000

1137263847

482763847

616857349

37642651

615917542

38582458

1969

19

654500000

1249278890

601828890

714710143

67260143

744251400

96801400

1970

20

647450000

1361293934

663928934

707428584

10063584

664761034

32603966

1971

21

697365000

1473308977

683150977

758983055

31174945

755570382

34587618

1972

22

790158000

1585324021

701179021

854823866

29321134

879571033

4573967

1973

23

884145000

1697339064

730447064

951897895

14994105

975132431

8240431

1974

24

966892000

1809354107

718536107

1037362743

53455257

1050524980

40293020

1975

25

1090818000

1921369151

713220151

1165359126

42789874

1204690693

3458307

1976

26

1208149000

2033384194

708184194

1286543894

38656106

1318237302

6962698

1977

27

1325200000

2145399237

714345237

1407439466

23614534

1435992494

4938494

1978

28

1431054000

2257414281

708301281

1516770269

32342731

1534700943

14412057

1979

29

1549113000

2369429324

708223324

1638706949

22499051

1662350289

1144289

1980

30

1661206000

2481444367

576880367

1754481674

150082326

1771065772

133498228

1981

31

1904564000

2593459411

410994411

2005832833

176632167

2109647427

72817573

1982

32

2182465000

2705474454

222828454

2292861567

189784433

2414257382

68388618

1983

33

2482646000

2817489498

187092498

2602902093

27494907

2732598770

102201770

1984

34

2630397000

2929504541

167999541

2755506015

5998985

2773093457

11588457

1985

35

2761505000

3041519584

74634584

2890920293

75964707

2893378018

73506982

1986

36

2966885000

3153534628

65163372

3103046054

115651946

3153159534

65538466

1987

37

3218698000

3265549671

185574329

3363129920

87994080

3439935419

11188581

1988

38

3451124000

3377564714

255516286

3603190015

29890985

3660368550

27287550

1989

39

3633081000

3489579758

265395242

3791123442

36148442

3807840064

52865064

1990

40

3754975000

3601594801

144804199

3917021084

170622084

3887962541

141563541

1991

41

3746399000

3713609844

67176156

3908163403

127377403

3786540090

5754090

1992

42

3780786000

3825624888

61269888

3943679853

179324853

3851744455

87389455

N/A

10

1993

43

3764355000

3937639931

228340931

3926709172

217410172

3799048786

89749786

1994

44

3709299000

4049654975

236127975

3869844843

56317843

3716100766

97426234

1995

45

3813527000

4161670018

213669018

3977496240

29495240

3934403693

13597307

1996

46

3948001000

4273685061

239423061

4116387075

82125075

4091424095

57162095

1997

47

4034262000

4385700105

163643105

4205481341

16575659

4144065397

77991603

1998

48

4222057000

4497715148

772852

4399444519

99043481

4405512851

92975149

1999

49

4498488000

4609730191

183974809

4684954970

108750030

4747108259

46596741

2000

50

4793705000

4721745235

240238765

4989868452

27884452

5057962674

95978674

2001

51

4961984000

4833760278

440848722

5163674621

110934379

5137271737

137337263

2002

52

5274609000

4945775321

557055679

5486567874

16263126

5554957145

52126145

2003

53

5502831000

5057790365

689297635

5722285887

24802113

5724919435

22168565

2004

54

5747088000

5169805408

812518592

5974565575

7758425

5982464280

140280

2005

55

5982324000

5281820451

935463549

6217527965

243965

6213100601

4183399

2006

56

6217284000

5393835495

1000813505

6460205290

65556290

6449677566

55028566

2007

57

6394649000

7375879428

981230428

6643395892

248746892

6587454177

192805177

2008

58

6616439000

7487894471

871455471

6872470645

256031645

6842547433

226108433

2009

59

6724183000

7599909514

875726514

6983753526

259570526

6870022138

145839138

2010

60

6756591000

7711924557

955333557

7017225975

260634975

6849107046

92516046

2011

61

7056158000

7823939600

767781600

7326632335

270474335

7340968879

284810879

2012

62

7291292000

7935954643

644662643

7569489375

278197375

7532097644

240805644

In sample MAD

440612527

56111759

41704664

Out of sample MAD

849365035

262275958

197147553

Form the table above it is clear that the AR(2) model is the best fit for the data as both its in-sample and
out-of-sample MAD is the smallest out of the 3 models. This is despite the fact that for both AR models
there is a 500% increase in the absolute size of the MAD from in to out-of-sample. The linear models MAD
almost doubles but both MADs are the largest by far.The graphs below also demonstrate this. Although
the AR(1) model seems to be a better fit in the in-sample graph, the AR(2) model is a better forecasting
model as shown by the out-of sample graph. This also shown by the regression analysis data where AR(2)
has a slightly higher R square and adjusted R square than AR(2). The linear model is clearly the worst
forecasting model based on the graphs and the regression analysis data. This also proven by the linear
models projections for negative sales in the period between 1950-7 which is clearly not realistic.
The AR(2) model:
yi = 17327948+1.7188xi

11

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

Dollars
7,000,000,000

In sample data alcoholic beverage sales (dollars) vs time

6,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

Alcoholic
beverage
sales

3,000,000,000

Linear

AR(1)

2,000,000,000
AR(2)

Actual

1,000,000,000

-1,000,000,000

Years

-2,000,000,000

12

Out of sample sales vs time

8,500,000,000.00

8,000,000,000.00

Sales(dollars)

7,500,000,000.00

Actual
Linear

7,000,000,000.00

AR(1)
AR(2)

6,500,000,000.00

6,000,000,000.00
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Year

13

Quarterly series
Table 800002 - Retail trade, Canada by trade group, provinces, territories and selected census metropolitan
areas, unadjusted for seasonality, quarterly (Dollars)
V115871 Ontario; Total retail, all stores(Mar-1989 to Mar-2004, Data: 61)
Year
1989-03
1989-06
1989-09
1989-12
1990-03
1990-06
1990-09
1990-12
1991-03
1991-06
1991-09
1991-12
1992-03
1992-06
1992-09
1992-12
1993-03
1993-06
1993-09
1993-12
1994-03
1994-06
1994-09
1994-12
1995-03
1995-06
1995-09
1995-12
1996-03
1996-06
1996-09
1996-12
1997-03
1997-06
1997-09

Retail trade
15579600000
19140700000
17970800000
19876800000
16143200000
18705600000
17852700000
19866800000
14330900000
17546700000
16859900000
18611700000
14679600000
17580800000
17333500000
19291200000
15227200000
18425300000
18043200000
20048000000
16054000000
19677100000
19285100000
21876400000
17147900000
20725400000
20284200000
21465800000
17297500000
20646500000
20001900000
22266900000
17789300000
22378400000
21854300000

1997-12
1998-03
1998-06
1998-09
1998-12
1999-03
1999-06
1999-09
1999-12
2000-03
2000-06
2000-09
2000-12
2001-03
2001-06
2001-09
2001-12
2002-03
2002-06
2002-09
2002-12
2003-03
2003-06
2003-09
2003-12
2004-03
2003-09
2003-12
2004-03

24408700000
19272400000
24238000000
23490300000
25427900000
20555400000
25364200000
25653900000
27620200000
22529700000
27407900000
27481600000
29007200000
23268600000
28524700000
27337300000
30063200000
24454400000
29870300000
29397000000
31540100000
25637600000
30700300000
30344200000
31764300000
26153000000
30344200000
31764300000
26153000000

14

Linear model regression analysis data

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.998294092

R Square

0.996591095

Adjusted R Square

0.971250205

Standard Error

1240130274

Observations

45

ANOVA
df

SS

Regression

MS

1.79844E+22

3.59689E+21

Residual

40

6.15169E+19

1.53792E+18

Total

45

1.80459E+22

Coefficients
Intercept

F
2338.79472

Significance F
3.32699E-47

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

Q1

13354148837

475936765.7

28.05866199

6.25884E-28

12392244753

1431605292

Q2

16715127299

478986991.5

34.89682934

1.42535E-31

15747058478

1768319612

Q3

16012360201

488023296

32.81064722

1.54689E-30

15026028327

1699869207

Q4

17848638557

497304096.9

35.89079332

4.7949E-32

16843549485

1885372762

175594371

14255312.69

12.31781967

3.41804E-15

146783309.4

204405432

Time

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation

Predicted Retail trade

Residuals

Standard Residuals

13354148837

2225451163

1.903386654

16890721670

2249978330

1.92436428

16363548943

1607251057

1.374651694

18375421670

1501378330

1.284100736

14056526321

2086673679

1.784692874

17593099154

1112500846

0.951501115

17065926427

786773572.9

0.672912685

19077799154

789000845.7

0.67481763

14758903805

-428003805.5

-0.36606363

10

18295476638

-748776638.5

-0.64041462

11

17768303911

-908403911.2

-0.776940833

12

19780176638

-1168476638

-0.999376161

13

15461281290

-781681289.6

-0.668557351

14

18997854123

-1417054123

-1.211979822

15

18470681395

-1137181395

-0.972609926

16

20482554123

-1191354123

-1.018942844

17

16163658774

-936458773.8

-0.800935631

15

18

19700231607

-1274931607

-1.090425099

19

19173058879

-1129858879

-0.966347116

20

21184931607

-1136931607

-0.972396287

21

16866036258

-812036257.9

-0.694519386

22

20402609091

-725509090.9

-0.620514323

23

19875436364

-590336363.6

-0.504903623

24

21887309091

-10909090.91

-0.009330341

25

17568413742

-420513742.1

-0.359657519

26

21104986575

-379586575.1

-0.324653281

27

20577813848

-293613847.8

-0.251122419

28

22589686575

-1123886575

-0.961239116

29

18270791226

-973291226.2

-0.832437737

30

21807364059

-1160864059

-0.992865264

31

21280191332

-1278291332

-1.093298609

32

23292064059

-1025164059

-0.876803599

33

18973168710

-1183868710

-1.012540711

34

22509741543

-131341543.3

-0.112333959

35

21982568816

-128268816.1

-0.109705913

36

23994441543

414258456.7

0.354307491

37

19675546195

-403146194.5

-0.344803381

38

23212119027

1025880973

0.877416761

39

22684946300

805353699.8

0.68880392

40

24696819027

731080972.5

0.625279849

41

20377923679

177476321.4

0.15179217

42

23914496512

1449703488

1.239904213

43

23387323784

2266576216

1.93856014

44

25399196512

2221003488

1.899582641

45

21080301163

1449398837

1.23964365

16

Quadratic model regression analysis data

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.999666735

R Square

0.999333581

Adjusted R Square

0.973607117

Standard Error

555304535.3

Observations

45

ANOVA
df

SS

Regression

MS

1.80339E+22

3.00565E+21

Residual

39

1.20262E+19

3.08363E+17

Total

45

1.80459E+22

Coefficients
Intercept

F
9747.124561

Significance F
5.73699E-59

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

Q1

15402738338

267518989.1

57.57624306

2.4169E-39

14861630108

15943846568

Q2

18970903692

278759822.4

68.05465554

3.79006E-42

18407058731

19534748654

Q3

18275120422

282233454.2

64.75178668

2.59459E-41

17704249377

18845991467

Q4

20104414950

285118670.6

70.5124463

9.60424E-43

19527708004

20681121896

-131694054

25081642.89

-5.250615145

5.66357E-06

-182426465.4

-80961642.7

6983827.842

551267.8633

12.66866492

2.11545E-15

5868783.341

8098872.344

Time
TimeSq

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation

Predicted Retail trade

Residuals

Standard Residuals

15402738338

176861662.3

0.342118403

18846193466

294506533.9

0.569688782

18039667625

-68867625.11

-0.133216445

19772187239

104612761.3

0.202361271

14987703367

1155496633

2.235174413

18487029118

218570881.8

0.422800057

17736373900

116326100.1

0.225019368

19524764136

342035863.7

0.661628766

14796150887

-465250887.3

-0.899973959

10

18351347261

-804647261.2

-1.556496937

11

17656562666

-796662665.7

-1.541051662

12

19500823525

-889123524.8

-1.719906485

13

14828080899

-148480898.6

-0.287219102

14

18439147895

-858347895.2

-1.660374594

15

17800233922

-466733922.5

-0.902842718

16

19700365404

-409165404.3

-0.791483087

17

17

15083493401

143706599.2

0.277983773

18

18750431020

-325131020.2

-0.628928304

19

18167387670

-124187670.2

-0.240226665

20

20123389775

-75389774.71

-0.145832788

21

15562388394

491611606

0.950965716

22

19285196636

391903363.9

0.758091669

23

18758023909

527076091.2

1.019567655

24

20769896636

1106503364

2.140402608

25

16264765878

883134121.9

1.708320679

26

20043444743

681955257

1.319163464

27

19572142638

712057361.5

1.377392499

28

21639885988

-174085988.5

-0.336749183

29

17190625853

106874146.8

0.206735659

30

21025175341

-378675340.8

-0.732503591

31

20609743859

-607843859

-1.175803548

32

22733357832

-466457831.8

-0.902308653

33

18339968319

-550668319.3

-1.065204088

34

22230388430

148011570.4

0.286311241

35

21870827571

-16527570.59

-0.031970671

36

24050312166

358387833.9

0.693259758

37

19712793276

-440393276.3

-0.851889789

38

23659084009

578915990.6

1.119845937

39

23355393773

134906226.9

0.260960472

40

25590748991

-162848991.3

-0.315012513

41

21309100724

-753700724.3

-1.457946761

42

25311262080

52937919.87

0.102402275

43

25063442467

590457533.4

1.142171715

44

27354668308

265531692.5

0.513640307

45

23128890663

-599190663.3

-1.159064943

18

Exponential model regression analysis data

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.999997304

R Square

0.999994608

Adjusted R Square

0.974994068

Standard Error

0.058366149

Observations

45

ANOVA
df

SS

Regression

MS

25269.39816

5053.879633

Residual

40

0.136264292

0.003406607

Total

45

25269.53443

Coefficients
Intercept

F
1483552.164

Significance F
8.0761E-102

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

Q1

23.3702972

0.02239974

1043.328939

2.52484E-90

23.32502564

23.4155687

Q2

23.55053125

0.022543298

1044.679957

2.39748E-90

23.50496954

23.5960929

Q3

23.51446158

0.022968587

1023.766133

5.38322E-90

23.46804034

23.5608828

Q4

23.60333413

0.023405384

1008.457478

9.83465E-90

23.55603009

23.6506381

Time

0.008631326

0.00067092

12.86491874

8.46135E-16

0.007275347

0.00998730

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation

Predicted ln(retail trade)

Residuals

Standard Residuals

23.3702972

0.098931003

1.797825926

23.55916257

0.11592022

2.106562859

23.53172423

0.080289821

1.459068607

23.62922811

0.083590948

1.519058416

23.4048225

0.099942241

1.816202672

23.59368788

0.058400902

1.061291737

23.56624954

0.039171055

0.711836902

23.66375342

0.048562418

0.882501655

23.43934781

-0.053663926

-0.975208922

10

23.62821318

-0.040081448

-0.728381031

11

23.60077484

-0.052570985

-0.955347422

12

23.69827872

-0.051222468

-0.930841466

13

23.47387311

-0.0641485

-1.165740093

14

23.66273849

-0.072665253

-1.320510969

15

23.63530015

-0.059393265

-1.079325467

16

23.73280402

-0.049889154

-0.906611788

17

23.50839842

-0.062049277

-1.127591909

19

18

23.69726379

-0.060273234

-1.095316729

19

23.66982545

-0.053790732

-0.977513307

20

23.76732933

-0.045934093

-0.834738358

21

23.54292372

-0.043699844

-0.794136414

22

23.7317891

-0.029067736

-0.528234089

23

23.70435076

-0.021752142

-0.39529129

24

23.80185463

0.006819635

0.123929969

25

23.57744902

-0.012307471

-0.223657793

26

23.7663144

-0.011688562

-0.212410652

27

23.73887606

-0.005767965

-0.104818474

28

23.83637994

-0.046653129

-0.847805049

29

23.61197433

-0.03814651

-0.693218319

30

23.8008397

-0.050028053

-0.909135946

31

23.77340136

-0.054308258

-0.98691806

32

23.87090524

-0.044538133

-0.809370241

33

23.64649963

-0.044636643

-0.811160421

34

23.83536501

-0.004002963

-0.07274394

35

23.80792667

-0.000263133

-0.004781783

36

23.90543054

0.012774918

0.232152493

37

23.68102494

0.00091492

0.016626409

38

23.86989031

0.041297174

0.750473845

39

23.84245197

0.037401435

0.679678428

40

23.93995585

0.019156984

0.348130735

41

23.71555024

0.030839276

0.560427442

42

23.90441562

0.052188952

0.948404917

43

23.87697728

0.090984167

1.653411865

44

23.97448115

0.067332073

1.223593634

45

23.75007555

0.08802473

1.599631423

20

Comparison of the 3 models

Year

Retail trade

Predicted-Lin

Predicted-Quad

13354148837

Absolute
Residuals
2225451163

Predicted-Exp

15402738338

Absolute
Residuals
176861662

14112082745

Absolute
Residuals
1467517255

1989-03

15579600000

1989-06
1989-09

19140700000

16890721670

17970800000

16363548943

2249978330

18846193466

294506534

17045678951

2095021049

1607251057

18039667625

68867625

16584332057

1386467943

1989-12

19876800000

18375421670

1501378330

19772187239

104612761

18282828290

1593971710

1990-03

16143200000

14056526321

2086673679

14987703367

1155496633

14607815108

1535384892

1990-06

18705600000

17593099154

1112500846

18487029118

218570882

17644463330

1061136670

1990-09

17852700000

17065926427

786773573

17736373900

116326100

17166910140

685789860

1990-12

19866800000

19077799154

789000846

19524764136

342035864

18925071525

941728475

1991-03

14330900000

14758903805

428003805

14796150887

465250887

15120961668

790061668

1991-06

17546700000

18295476638

748776638

18351347261

804647261

18264281940

717581940

1991-09

16859900000

17768303911

908403911

17656562666

796662666

17769953156

910053156

1991-12

18611700000

19780176638

1168476638

19500823525

889123525

19589875622

978175622

1992-03

14679600000

15461281290

781681290

14828080899

148480899

15652134153

972534153

1992-06

17580800000

18997854123

1417054123

18439147895

858347895

18905873674

1325073674

1992-09

17333500000

18470681395

1137181395

17800233922

466733922

18394179999

1060679999

1992-12

19291200000

20482554123

1191354123

19700365404

409165404

20278033104

986833104

1993-03

15227200000

16163658774

936458774

15083493401

143706599

16201965782

974765782

1993-06

18425300000

19700231607

1274931607

18750431020

325131020

19570003385

1144703385

1993-09

18043200000

19173058879

1129858879

18167387670

124187670

19040334822

997134822

1993-12

20048000000

21184931607

1136931607

20123389775

75389775

20990364335

942364335

1994-03

16054000000

16866036258

812036258

15562388394

491611606

16771112019

717112019

1994-06

19677100000

20402609091

725509091

19285196636

391903364

20257462791

580362791

1994-09

19285100000

19875436364

590336364

18758023909

527076091

19709187913

424087913

1994-12

21876400000

21887309091

10909091

20769896636

1106503364

21727718495

148681505

1995-03

17147900000

17568413742

420513742

16264765878

883134122

17360251350

212351350

1995-06

20725400000

21104986575

379586575

20043444743

681955257

20969071423

243671423

1995-09

20284200000

20577813848

293613848

19572142638

712057362

20401536624

117336624

1995-12

21465800000

22589686575

1123886575

21639885988

174085988

22490974595

1025174595

1996-03

17297500000

18270791226

973291226

17190625853

106874147

17970086098

672586098

1996-06

20646500000

21807364059

1160864059

21025175341

378675341

21705677601

1059177601

1996-09

20001900000

21280191332

1278291332

20609743859

607843859

21118206314

1116306314

1996-12

22266900000

23292064059

1025164059

22733357832

466457832

23281042523

1014142523

1997-03

17789300000

18973168710

1183868710

18339968319

550668319

18601343256

812043256

1997-06

22378400000

22509741543

131341543

22230388430

148011570

22468159443

89759443

1997-09

21854300000

21982568816

128268816

21870827571

16527571

21860051335

5751335

1997-12

24408700000

23994441543

414258457

24050312166

358387834

24098864133

309835867

1998-03

19272400000

19675546195

403146195

19712793276

440393276

19254775355

17624645

1998-06

24238000000

23212119027

1025880973

23659084009

578915991

23257425916

980574084

1998-09

23490300000

22684946300

805353700

23355393773

134906227

22627956052

862343948

1998-12

25427900000

24696819027

731080973

25590748991

162848991

24945414361

482485639

1999-03

20555400000

20377923679

177476321

21309100724

753700724

19931161361

624238639

1999-06

25364200000

23914496512

1449703488

25311262080

52937920

24074417917

1289782083

1999-09

25653900000

23387323784

2266576216

25063442467

590457533

23422835896

2231064104

1999-12

27620200000

25399196512

2221003488

27354668308

265531692

25821702392

1798497608

21

2000-03

22529700000

21080301163

1449398837

23128890663

599190663

20631307605

1898392395

2000-06

27407900000

24616873994

2791026006

2000-09

27481600000

24089701267

3391898733

27186922557

220977443

24920109377

2487790623

26994973563

486626437.2

24245638343

3235961657

2000-12

29007200000

26101573994

2905626006

29342070022

334870022.2

26728772718

2278427282

2001-03

23268600000

21782678645

1485921355

25172162997

1903562997

21356048701

1912551299

2001-06

28524700000

25319251478

3205448522

29286065594

761365593.8

25795508485

2729191515

2001-09

27337300000

24792078751

2545221249

29149987222

1812687222

25097344483

2239955517

2001-12

30063200000

26803951478

3259248522

31552954304

1489754304

27667706951

2395493049

2002-03

24454400000

22485056129

1969343871

27438917901

2984517901

22106248698

2348151302

2002-06

29870300000

26021628962

3848671038

31608691120

1738391120

26701658806

3168641194

2002-09

29397000000

25494456235

3902543765

31528483371

2131483371

25978969545

3418030455

2002-12

31540100000

27506328962

4033771038

33987321075

2447221075

28639829620

2900270380

2003-03

25637600000

23187433613

2450166387

29929155295

4291555295

22882801886

2754798114

2003-06

30700300000

26724006446

3976293554

34154799136

3454499136

27639640576

3060659424

2003-09

30344200000

26196833719

4147366281

34130462009

3786262009

26891564526

3452635474

2003-12

31764300000

28208706446

3555593554

36645170336

4880870336

29645683322

2118616678

2004-03

26153000000

23889811097

2263188903

32642875178

6489875178

23686634006

2466365994

In sample MAD
Out of sample MAD

1017766234

425883605

951916390

3108208049

2450907465

2685471247

Looking at the in and out sample MADs the quadratic model is the best fit as it has the lowest MADs in
both groups of data. The exponential model is the second best with the relative and absolute increase in
MAD values smaller for the exponential model than for the quadratic model when switching from in
sample data to out of sample data. The linear model is again the worst model as it has the largest absolute
MAD values. This ranking conflicts with the regression analysis results where the quadratic model has
lower multiple R, R square and adjusted R square values than the exponential model although the
differences are minimal. Looking at the graphs below it is clear from the in-sample data graph that the
quadratic model tracks actual data the best. From the out of sample data graph however this is much
harder to distinguish as the actual data points oscillate between the quadratic model and exponential
model predictions. In the second, third and fourth quarters the actual data converges to the quadratic
model while the exponential model is more accurate in the first quarters. This is true for most of the last 16
quarters except for the last 4 where the quadratic model diverges considerably and the exponential model
is a better fit.
Quadratic formula:
yi = -131694054xi + 6983828xi2 + 15402738338Q1 + 18970903692Q2 + 18275120422Q3 + 20104414950Q4

22

28,000,000,000

1989-03
1989-06
1989-09
1989-12
1990-03
1990-06
1990-09
1990-12
1991-03
1991-06
1991-09
1991-12
1992-03
1992-06
1992-09
1992-12
1993-03
1993-06
1993-09
1993-12
1994-03
1994-06
1994-09
1994-12
1995-03
1995-06
1995-09
1995-12
1996-03
1996-06
1996-09
1996-12
1997-03
1997-06
1997-09
1997-12
1998-03
1998-06
1998-09
1998-12
1999-03
1999-06
1999-09
1999-12
2000-03

Retail trade (Dollars)

30,000,000,000

Retail trade (Actual and Predicted) vs time-In

Actual
Prediced-Lin
Predicted Quad
Predicted-Exp

26,000,000,000

24,000,000,000

22,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

18,000,000,000

16,000,000,000

14,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

Quarter

23

40,000,000,000

Retail trade in dollars (Actual and Predicted) vs time

Out of sample data

Actual

Predicted-Lin

Predicted-Quad

Predicted-Exp

35,000,000,000

Retail trade in dollars

30,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

Quarter

24

Monthly series
Table 3260001 - Consumer Price Index (CPI), 2001 basket content, monthly (1992=100 unless specified) V736288 Ontario; All-items(Sep-1978 to Apr-2007, Data: 344)
Month
1978-09
1978-10
1978-11
1978-12
1979-01
1979-02
1979-03
1979-04
1979-05
1979-06
1979-07
1979-08
1979-09
1979-10
1979-11
1979-12
1980-01
1980-02
1980-03
1980-04
1980-05
1980-06
1980-07
1980-08
1980-09
1980-10
1980-11
1980-12
1981-01
1981-02
1981-03
1981-04
1981-05
1981-06
1981-07
1981-08
1981-09
1981-10
1981-11
1981-12

CPI index
43.3
43.9
44.3
44.3
44.7
45
45.7
46
46.4
46.7
47.1
47.2
47.5
48
48.5
48.8
49.1
49.6
50.1
50.4
50.9
51.5
51.8
52.2
52.8
53.2
53.6
54.1
54.8
55.3
56
56.4
56.9
57.9
58.4
58.8
59.1
59.9
60.3
60.3

1982-01
1982-02
1982-03
1982-04
1982-05
1982-06
1982-07
1982-08
1982-09
1982-10
1982-11
1982-12
1983-01
1983-02
1983-03
1983-04
1983-05
1983-06
1983-07
1983-08
1983-09
1983-10
1983-11
1983-12
1984-01
1984-02
1984-03
1984-04
1984-05
1984-06
1984-07
1984-08
1984-09
1984-10
1984-11
1984-12
1985-01
1985-02
1985-03
1985-04
1985-05

60.7
61.4
62.3
62.7
63.6
64.3
64.7
64.9
65.3
65.7
66.2
66.4
66.2
66.5
67.2
66.7
66.9
68.2
68.4
68.8
68.8
69.2
69.1
69.5
70.1
70.5
70.5
70.7
70.8
71.2
71.7
71.7
71.8
71.9
72.5
72.4
72.9
73.3
73.6
73.6
73.8

1985-06
1985-07
1985-08
1985-09
1985-10
1985-11
1985-12
1986-01
1986-02
1986-03
1986-04
1986-05
1986-06
1986-07
1986-08
1986-09
1986-10
1986-11
1986-12
1987-01
1987-02
1987-03
1987-04
1987-05
1987-06
1987-07
1987-08
1987-09
1987-10
1987-11
1987-12
1988-01
1988-02
1988-03
1988-04
1988-05
1988-06
1988-07
1988-08
1988-09
1988-10

74.2
74.3
74.6
74.6
74.9
75.3
75.7
76.1
76.4
76.5
76.6
77
77.2
77.8
78.1
78.1
78.5
79
79.2
79.5
79.9
80.2
80.7
81.2
81.4
82.2
82.2
82.2
82.5
82.7
82.6
82.9
83.3
83.7
84
85
85.3
85.8
86.1
86.2
86.7

1988-11
1988-12
1989-01
1989-02
1989-03
1989-04
1989-05
1989-06
1989-07
1989-08
1989-09
1989-10
1989-11
1989-12
1990-01
1990-02
1990-03
1990-04
1990-05
1990-06
1990-07
1990-08
1990-09
1990-10
1990-11
1990-12
1991-01
1991-02
1991-03
1991-04
1991-05
1991-06
1991-07
1991-08
1991-09
1991-10
1991-11
1991-12
1992-01
1992-02
1992-03

87
87.1
87.5
88.1
88.6
89.1
89.9
90.4
91.1
91.2
91.2
91.7
92
92
92.7
93.3
93.6
93.6
94
94.4
94.9
94.9
95
95.8
96.4
96
98
98
98.3
98.4
99
99.5
99.7
99.7
99.4
99
99.5
99
99.1
99.3
99.5

1992-04
1992-05
1992-06
1992-07
1992-08
1992-09
1992-10
1992-11
1992-12
1993-01
1993-02
1993-03
1993-04
1993-05
1993-06
1993-07
1993-08
1993-09
1993-10
1993-11
1993-12
1994-01
1994-02
1994-03
1994-04
1994-05
1994-06
1994-07
1994-08
1994-09
1994-10
1994-11
1994-12
1995-01
1995-02
1995-03
1995-04
1995-05
1995-06
1995-07
1995-08

99.6
99.8
100.1
100.3
100.3
100.1
100.2
100.7
100.6
100.9
101.4
101.5
101.3
101.4
101.6
101.9
101.9
102
102.2
102.5
102.4
102.2
101.6
101.3
101.5
101.2
101.3
101.9
101.9
101.9
101.8
102.3
102.6
103.2
103.7
104
104.1
104.4
104.5
104.6
104.5

25

1995-09
1995-10
1995-11
1995-12
1996-01
1996-02
1996-03
1996-04
1996-05
1996-06
1996-07
1996-08
1996-09
1996-10
1996-11
1996-12
1997-01
1997-02
1997-03
1997-04
1997-05
1997-06
1997-07
1997-08
1997-09
1997-10
1997-11
1997-12
1998-01
1998-02
1998-03
1998-04
1998-05
1998-06
1998-07
1998-08
1998-09
1998-10
1998-11
1998-12
1999-01
1999-02
1999-03
1999-04
1999-05
1999-06
1999-07

104.7
104.5
104.7
104.6
104.7
105
105.3
105.6
105.8
105.7
105.8
105.9
106
106.4
107.1
107.2
107.4
107.4
107.7
107.8
107.7
108
108
108.2
108.1
108.3
108
107.9
108.4
108.7
108.8
108.5
108.9
108.8
109
108.9
109
109.4
109.3
108.9
109.3
109.4
110
110.6
110.9
110.9
111.2

1999-08
1999-09
1999-10
1999-11
1999-12
2000-01
2000-02
2000-03
2000-04
2000-05
2000-06
2000-07
2000-08
2000-09
2000-10
2000-11
2000-12
2001-01
2001-02
2001-03
2001-04
2001-05
2001-06
2001-07
2001-08
2001-09
2001-10
2001-11
2001-12
2002-01
2002-02
2002-03
2002-04
2002-05
2002-06
2002-07
2002-08
2002-09
2002-10
2002-11
2002-12
2003-01
2003-02
2003-03
2003-04
2003-05
2003-06

111.6
111.8
111.9
111.8
112.1
111.9
112.8
113.7
113
113.7
114.5
114.7
114.4
114.9
115.2
115.9
116
115.9
116.6
117.3
117.9
118.5
118.5
118.3
118.3
118.5
118.2
117.3
117.3
117.3
118.2
119.5
119.5
119.5
119.9
120.8
121.7
121.2
121.5
121.8
120.6
122.4
123.4
123.5
122.3
122.7
122.9

2003-07
2003-08
2003-09
2003-10
2003-11
2003-12
2004-01
2004-02
2004-03
2004-04
2004-05
2004-06
2004-07
2004-08
2004-09
2004-10
2004-11
2004-12
2005-01
2005-02
2005-03
2005-04
2005-05
2005-06
2005-07
2005-08
2005-09
2005-10
2005-11
2005-12
2006-01
2006-02
2006-03
2006-04
2006-05
2006-06
2006-07
2006-08
2006-09
2006-10
2006-11
2006-12
2007-01
2007-02
2007-03
2007-04

123.1
123.8
123.9
123.6
123.9
124.2
124.2
124.4
124.9
125.1
126.1
125.8
126
125.7
125.8
126.2
126.6
126.5
126.2
127.1
127.8
128
128
128.2
128.4
129.1
130
129.4
129.1
129.2
130
129.6
130.7
131
131.6
131.3
130.9
131.1
130.3
130.2
130.5
130.6
130.4
131.7
133
133.4

26

Linear model regression analysis data

FTD
JM
SA
O
N
TD
F
JM
SA
O
N

F
JM
SA
O
N
TD
R
C

--50
200
50
00
SUMMARY
OUTPUT 0
1
0
Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.9990197

R Square
Adjusted R
Square

0.9980404

Standard Error

4.2990102

0.9947065

Observations

320

ANOVA
df
Regression

SS

MS

13

2889794.5

222291.88

Residual

307

5673.8171

18.481489

Total

320

2895468.3

Coefficients
Intercept

Significance
F

F
12027.813

Standard
Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper
95%

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

January

52.965105

0.9261995

57.185419

9.65E-166

51.142603

54.787607

Febraury

53.13866

0.9273721

57.300255

5.5E-166

51.31385

54.96347

March

53.319623

0.9285506

57.42242

3.02E-166

51.492494

55.146751

April

53.170955

0.9297348

57.189375

9.47E-166

51.341496

55.000414

May

53.449619

0.9380116

56.981829

2.63E-165

51.603873

55.295364

June

53.539271

0.9391551

57.00791

2.31E-165

51.691275

55.387266

July

53.632769

0.9403044

57.037666

2E-165

51.782512

55.483026

August

53.541651

0.9414595

56.870903

4.54E-165

51.689122

55.394181

September

53.015329

0.9215674

57.527347

1.81E-166

51.201941

54.828717

October

53.033329

0.9227166

57.475207

2.33E-166

51.21768

54.848978

November

53.084662

0.9238717

57.458911

2.53E-166

51.26674

54.902583

December

52.839698

0.9250327

57.121981

1.32E-165

51.019492

54.659904

Time

0.2449635

0.0026022

94.137903

1.68E-228

0.2398431

0.2500838

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Predicted CPI
Index

Observation

Residuals

Standard
Residuals

Absolute
residuals

53.015329

-9.7153292

-2.307251

9.7153292

53.278292

-9.3782922

-2.2272096

9.3782922

53.574588

-9.2745885

-2.2025814

9.2745885

53.574588

-9.2745885

-2.2025814

9.2745885

27

53.944959

-9.2449588

-2.1955448

9.2449588

54.363477

-9.3634774

-2.2236913

9.3634774

54.789403

-9.0894033

-2.1586026

9.0894033

54.8857

-8.8856996

-2.1102259

8.8856996

55.409327

-9.0093265

-2.1395855

9.0093265

10

55.743942

-9.0439419

-2.1478062

9.0439419

11

56.082403

-8.9824035

-2.1331917

8.9824035

12

56.23625

-9.0362496

-2.1459794

9.0362496

13

55.954891

-8.4548908

-2.007915

8.4548908

14

56.217854

-8.2178538

-1.9516221

8.2178538

15

56.51415

-8.01415

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278

120.88821

-2.6882083

-0.6384108

2.6882083

279

121.1845

-3.8845046

-0.922514

3.8845046

280

121.1845

-3.8845046

-0.922514

3.8845046

281

121.55487

-4.254875

-1.0104716

4.254875

282

121.97339

-3.7733935

-0.8961267

3.7733935

283

122.39932

-2.8993194

-0.6885467

2.8993194

284

122.49562

-2.9956157

-0.7114157

2.9956157

285

123.01924

-3.5192426

-0.8357695

3.5192426

286

123.35386

-3.453858

-0.8202416

3.453858

287

123.69232

-2.8923196

-0.6868843

2.8923196

288

123.84617

-2.1461657

-0.5096835

2.1461657

289

123.56481

-2.3648069

-0.5616076

2.3648069

290

123.82777

-2.3277699

-0.5528119

2.3277699

291

124.12407

-2.3240662

-0.5519323

2.3240662

292

124.12407

-3.5240662

-0.836915

3.5240662

293

124.49444

-2.0944365

-0.4973986

2.0944365

294

124.91296

-1.512955

-0.3593051

1.512955

295

125.33888

-1.838881

-0.4367078

1.838881

296

125.43518

-3.1351773

-0.7445595

3.1351773

297

125.9588

-3.2588042

-0.7739191

3.2588042

298

126.29342

-3.3934196

-0.8058884

3.3934196

33

299

126.63188

-3.5318811

-0.838771

3.5318811

300

126.78573

-2.9857273

-0.7090673

2.9857273

301

126.50437

-2.6043685

-0.6185001

2.6043685

302

126.76733

-3.1673314

-0.7521957

3.1673314

303

127.06363

-3.1636277

-0.7513161

3.1636277

304

127.06363

-2.8636277

-0.6800704

2.8636277

305

127.434

-3.2339981

-0.7680281

3.2339981

306

127.85252

-3.4525166

-0.8199231

3.4525166

307

128.27844

-3.3784425

-0.8023315

3.3784425

308

128.37474

-3.2747388

-0.7777034

3.2747388

309

128.89837

-2.7983658

-0.6645716

2.7983658

310

129.23298

-3.4329812

-0.8152837

3.4329812

311

129.57144

-3.5714427

-0.8481663

3.5714427

312

129.72529

-4.0252889

-0.9559482

4.0252889

313

129.44393

-3.64393

-0.865381

3.64393

314

129.70689

-3.506893

-0.8328367

3.506893

315

130.00319

-3.4031893

-0.8082085

3.4031893

316

130.00319

-3.5031893

-0.8319571

3.5031893

317

130.37356

-4.1735597

-0.9911604

4.1735597

318

130.79208

-3.6920782

-0.8768155

3.6920782

319

131.218

-3.4180041

-0.8117268

3.4180041

320

131.3143

-3.3143004

-0.7870987

3.3143004

34

Quadratic model regression analysis data

FTD
JM
SA
O
N
TD
F
JM
SA
O
N
-SUMMARY
-20
200
20
00
OUTPUT0
R
C

F
JM
SA
O
N
TD

1
0

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.999744
R Square
0.999488
Adjusted R
Square
0.996199
Standard
Error
2.200155
Observations
320
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

14
306
320

SS
2893987
1481.249
2895468

MS
206713.4
4.840681

Significance
F
F
42703.36
0

0
45.03703
45.21153
45.3944
45.24858
45.22063
45.30934
45.40283
45.31267
45.09295
45.1081
45.15754
44.91162
0.396368
-0.00047

Standard
Error
#N/A
0.545214
0.54572
0.546213
0.546692
0.555553
0.556075
0.556583
0.557078
0.543058
0.543617
0.544162
0.544695
0.005314
1.61E-05

t Stat
#N/A
82.60434
82.84753
83.10756
82.7679
81.39752
81.48063
81.57418
81.33983
83.03522
82.97773
82.98539
82.45283
74.58695
-29.4298

P-value
#N/A
2.9E-211
1.2E-211
4.9E-212
1.6E-211
2.2E-209
1.6E-209
1.2E-209
2.7E-209
6.4E-212
7.8E-212
7.6E-212
5E-211
2.5E-198
3.07E-91

Predicted CPI
Index
45.09295
45.50399
45.94837

Residuals
-1.79295
-1.60399
-1.64837

Standard
Residuals
-0.83335
-0.74553
-0.76615

Absolute
residuals
1.79295
1.603994
1.648373

Coefficients
Intercept
January
Febraury
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Time
Time Sq

Lower 95%
#N/A
43.96419
44.1377
44.31959
44.17282
44.12745
44.21512
44.30762
44.21648
44.02435
44.0384
44.08676
43.8398
0.385911
-0.00051

Upper
95%
#N/A
46.10987
46.28537
46.4692
46.32433
46.31382
46.40355
46.49805
46.40886
46.16155
46.1778
46.22831
45.98344
0.406825
-0.00044

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
1
2
3

35

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52

46.09645
46.61491
47.18151
47.75551
47.99989
48.3612
48.8382
49.31905
49.61528
49.78102
50.18067
50.61366
50.75035
51.25741
51.81262
52.37524
52.60822
52.95814
53.42375
53.89321
54.17805
54.33239
54.72065
55.14225
55.26755
55.76322
56.30704
56.85827
57.07986
57.41839
57.87261
58.33067
58.60412
58.74708
59.12395
59.53415
59.64806
60.13234
60.66477
61.20461
61.41481
61.74194
62.18477
62.63145
62.89351
63.02507
63.39055
63.78937
63.89188

-1.79645
-1.91491
-2.18151
-2.05551
-1.99989
-1.9612
-2.1382
-2.21905
-2.41528
-2.28102
-2.18067
-2.11366
-1.95035
-2.15741
-2.21262
-2.27524
-2.20822
-2.05814
-1.92375
-2.09321
-1.97805
-1.53239
-1.52065
-1.54225
-1.16755
-0.96322
-1.00704
-0.85827
-0.67986
-0.51839
0.027393
0.069327
0.195876
0.352923
0.776051
0.765846
0.651937
0.567657
0.73523
1.095395
1.285189
1.858055
2.115226
2.068551
2.006491
2.27493
2.309448
2.410634
2.508116

-0.83498
-0.89004
-1.01395
-0.95539
-0.92954
-0.91155
-0.99382
-1.0314
-1.12261
-1.0602
-1.01356
-0.98242
-0.90651
-1.00275
-1.02841
-1.05752
-1.02637
-0.95661
-0.89415
-0.97291
-0.91939
-0.71225
-0.70679
-0.71683
-0.54267
-0.4477
-0.46807
-0.39892
-0.316
-0.24094
0.012732
0.032223
0.091042
0.164037
0.360704
0.355961
0.303017
0.263844
0.341731
0.509133
0.597349
0.863614
0.983146
0.961451
0.932606
1.057375
1.073419
1.120449
1.165758

1.796454
1.914907
2.181507
2.055515
1.999893
1.961199
2.138201
2.219049
2.415282
2.281016
2.18067
2.113657
1.950348
2.15741
2.212619
2.275236
2.208223
2.058139
1.92375
2.093207
1.978048
1.532392
1.520655
1.542251
1.167551
0.963222
1.00704
0.858266
0.679863
0.518387
0.027393
0.069327
0.195876
0.352923
0.776051
0.765846
0.651937
0.567657
0.73523
1.095395
1.285189
1.858055
2.115226
2.068551
2.006491
2.27493
2.309448
2.410634
2.508116

36

53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101

64.36477
64.88581
65.41425
65.61307
65.92881
66.36025
66.79553
67.0462
67.16637
67.52046
67.90789
67.99901
68.46051
68.97016
69.48721
69.67463
69.97899
70.39903
70.82293
71.06221
71.17099
71.51368
71.88972
71.96945
72.41956
72.91782
73.42348
73.59951
73.89247
74.30113
74.71363
74.94152
75.03891
75.37021
75.73486
75.8032
76.24192
76.72878
77.22305
77.38769
77.66926
78.06653
78.46764
78.68414
78.77014
79.09005
79.4433
79.50026
79.92758

1.835227
1.61419
1.785746
1.086932
0.971189
1.839751
1.604466
1.753798
1.633627
1.679536
1.192113
1.500986
1.639488
1.529842
1.012789
1.025365
0.821013
0.800966
0.877073
0.637795
0.629015
0.386315
0.610283
0.430546
0.48044
0.382185
0.176522
0.00049
-0.09247
-0.10113
-0.41363
-0.34152
-0.43891
-0.47021
-0.43486
-0.1032
-0.14192
-0.32878
-0.72305
-0.78769
-0.66926
-0.86653
-0.66764
-0.58414
-0.67014
-0.59005
-0.4433
-0.30026
-0.42758

0.853004
0.750267
0.830005
0.5052
0.451403
0.855106
0.745747
0.815156
0.759301
0.780639
0.554088
0.69765
0.762025
0.711062
0.470739
0.476584
0.381603
0.372285
0.407659
0.296444
0.292363
0.179557
0.283656
0.200116
0.223306
0.177637
0.082047
0.000228
-0.04298
-0.047
-0.19225
-0.15874
-0.204
-0.21855
-0.20212
-0.04797
-0.06596
-0.15282
-0.33607
-0.36612
-0.31107
-0.40276
-0.31032
-0.2715
-0.31148
-0.27425
-0.20605
-0.13956
-0.19874

1.835227
1.61419
1.785746
1.086932
0.971189
1.839751
1.604466
1.753798
1.633627
1.679536
1.192113
1.500986
1.639488
1.529842
1.012789
1.025365
0.821013
0.800966
0.877073
0.637795
0.629015
0.386315
0.610283
0.430546
0.48044
0.382185
0.176522
0.00049
0.092471
0.101128
0.41363
0.341517
0.438906
0.470215
0.434856
0.103202
0.141918
0.328782
0.723053
0.787695
0.669265
0.86653
0.667642
0.584138
0.670136
0.590054
0.443304
0.300259
0.427584

37

102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150

80.40306
80.88594
81.03919
81.30937
81.69524
82.08496
82.29007
82.36468
82.6732
83.01506
83.06063
83.47656
83.94064
84.41213
84.55399
84.81278
85.18726
85.56559
85.75931
85.82252
86.11966
86.45013
86.4843
86.88884
87.34154
87.80163
87.9321
88.1795
88.54259
88.90953
89.09185
89.14368
89.42943
89.7485
89.77129
90.16444
90.60574
91.05445
91.17352
91.40953
91.76123
92.11678
92.28771
92.32815
92.6025
92.91019
92.92158
93.30334
93.73325

-0.50306
-0.68594
-0.33919
-0.10937
-0.29524
0.115037
-0.09007
-0.16468
-0.1732
-0.31506
-0.46063
-0.57656
-0.64064
-0.71213
-0.55399
0.187221
0.112737
0.234407
0.340693
0.377477
0.580341
0.549872
0.615699
0.611156
0.758465
0.798366
1.167897
1.7205
1.857407
2.190468
2.108145
2.05632
2.270575
2.251497
2.228715
2.535563
2.694262
2.545555
2.426477
2.59047
2.638768
2.78322
2.612288
2.671853
3.1975
3.489812
3.078421
4.69666
4.266751

-0.23382
-0.31882
-0.15765
-0.05083
-0.13723
0.053469
-0.04186
-0.07654
-0.0805
-0.14644
-0.2141
-0.26798
-0.29777
-0.33099
-0.25749
0.087019
0.0524
0.108951
0.158352
0.175449
0.269739
0.255578
0.286174
0.284062
0.35253
0.371076
0.542832
0.799679
0.863313
1.018118
0.979854
0.955766
1.055351
1.046483
1.035895
1.178516
1.252278
1.18316
1.127813
1.204036
1.226485
1.293626
1.214177
1.241863
1.48618
1.622046
1.430834
2.182982
1.983162

0.503057
0.685938
0.339188
0.109368
0.295242
0.115037
0.090068
0.164675
0.173202
0.315062
0.460625
0.576559
0.640641
0.712131
0.553991
0.187221
0.112737
0.234407
0.340693
0.377477
0.580341
0.549872
0.615699
0.611156
0.758465
0.798366
1.167897
1.7205
1.857407
2.190468
2.108145
2.05632
2.270575
2.251497
2.228715
2.535563
2.694262
2.545555
2.426477
2.59047
2.638768
2.78322
2.612288
2.671853
3.1975
3.489812
3.078421
4.69666
4.266751

38

151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199

94.17057
94.27825
94.50287
94.84318
95.18734
95.34688
95.37592
95.63888
95.93518
95.93518
96.30555
96.72407
97.15
97.24629
97.45952
97.78844
98.1212
98.26935
98.28701
98.53858
98.82348
98.81209
99.17107
99.5782
99.99273
100.0776
100.2795
100.597
100.9184
101.0551
101.0614
101.3016
101.5751
101.5523
101.8999
102.2956
102.6988
102.7723
102.9627
103.2689
103.5789
103.7042
103.6991
103.9279
104.19
104.1558
104.492
104.8764
105.2681

4.129434
4.121747
4.497131
4.65682
4.512663
4.353122
4.024078
3.361115
3.564819
3.064819
2.794449
2.57593
2.350004
2.353708
2.340483
2.311563
2.178797
2.030647
1.812994
1.661422
1.876517
1.787907
1.728928
1.8218
1.507265
1.22236
1.120526
1.002997
0.981622
0.844862
0.938601
0.898419
0.924905
0.847687
0.300098
-0.69564
-1.39878
-1.2723
-1.76274
-1.96888
-1.67886
-1.80423
-1.7991
-2.12789
-1.89002
-1.55584
-1.29204
-1.17639
-1.26814

1.919338
1.915765
2.090242
2.164465
2.097461
2.023307
1.87037
1.562228
1.656908
1.424511
1.298844
1.197278
1.092269
1.093991
1.087844
1.074402
1.012693
0.943833
0.84267
0.77222
0.872195
0.83101
0.803596
0.846763
0.700569
0.568146
0.520815
0.466188
0.456253
0.392687
0.436256
0.41758
0.429891
0.394
0.139484
-0.32333
-0.65015
-0.59136
-0.81931
-0.91512
-0.78033
-0.8386
-0.83621
-0.98903
-0.87847
-0.72315
-0.60053
-0.54678
-0.58942

4.129434
4.121747
4.497131
4.65682
4.512663
4.353122
4.024078
3.361115
3.564819
3.064819
2.794449
2.57593
2.350004
2.353708
2.340483
2.311563
2.178797
2.030647
1.812994
1.661422
1.876517
1.787907
1.728928
1.8218
1.507265
1.22236
1.120526
1.002997
0.981622
0.844862
0.938601
0.898419
0.924905
0.847687
0.300098
0.695638
1.398782
1.272297
1.76274
1.968878
1.678862
1.804231
1.799102
2.127892
1.890016
1.555843
1.29204
1.176386
1.268139

39

200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248

105.3303
105.5093
105.8041
106.1027
106.2166
106.2001
106.4175
106.6682
106.6227
106.9475
107.3204
107.7008
107.7515
107.9192
108.2026
108.4898
108.5923
108.5644
108.7704
109.0098
108.9528
109.2662
109.6278
109.9968
110.0361
110.1924
110.4644
110.7402
110.8314
110.7921
110.9867
111.2146
111.1463
111.4483
111.7985
112.1561
112.184
112.3289
112.5895
112.8539
112.9337
112.883
113.0662
113.2828
113.2031
113.4937
113.8325
114.1787
114.1952

-1.23026
-1.10931
-1.30406
-1.50266
-1.71663
-1.50011
-1.91751
-1.96825
-2.02268
-2.24749
-2.32044
-2.40081
-2.15154
-2.1192
-2.50256
-2.68976
-2.69234
-2.56443
-2.37044
-1.90978
-1.75283
-1.86625
-2.22781
-2.29678
-2.23612
-2.49239
-2.46436
-2.74017
-2.63137
-2.69206
-2.68668
-3.21463
-3.24629
-3.04831
-3.09848
-3.35606
-3.68402
-3.42889
-3.78947
-3.85389
-4.03369
-3.883
-3.66623
-3.98279
-4.30305
-4.19369
-4.43247
-4.17866
-3.59522

-0.57182
-0.5156
-0.60612
-0.69843
-0.79788
-0.69724
-0.89125
-0.91483
-0.94013
-1.04462
-1.07853
-1.11588
-1.00002
-0.98499
-1.16317
-1.25018
-1.25139
-1.19193
-1.10177
-0.88766
-0.81471
-0.86742
-1.03547
-1.06753
-1.03934
-1.15845
-1.14542
-1.27362
-1.22304
-1.25126
-1.24875
-1.49414
-1.50886
-1.41684
-1.44016
-1.55988
-1.71231
-1.59373
-1.76132
-1.79127
-1.87484
-1.8048
-1.70404
-1.85118
-2.00004
-1.9492
-2.06019
-1.94222
-1.67104

1.230263
1.109315
1.304062
1.502655
1.716633
1.500113
1.917513
1.968245
2.022682
2.247488
2.320443
2.400805
2.151538
2.119199
2.502555
2.689758
2.692345
2.564434
2.370442
1.909784
1.752829
1.866245
2.227809
2.29678
2.236122
2.492392
2.464358
2.740169
2.631365
2.692063
2.686681
3.214632
3.246286
3.048311
3.098484
3.356064
3.684015
3.428894
3.789469
3.853889
4.033695
3.883002
3.666228
3.982788
4.303052
4.193686
4.432468
4.178658
3.595218

40

249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297

114.3287
114.5779
114.8309
114.8993
114.8372
115.0091
115.2143
115.1231
115.4024
115.7298
116.0646
116.0697
116.1918
116.4296
116.6713
116.7283
116.6548
116.8153
117.009
116.9065
117.1744
117.4904
117.8138
117.8075
117.9183
118.1447
118.3749
118.4205
118.3357
118.4847
118.6671
118.5532
118.8097
119.1143
119.4263
119.4087
119.508
119.723
119.9419
119.9761
119.8798
120.0175
120.1885
120.0632
120.3083
120.6015
120.9021
120.8731
120.961

-3.42871
-3.67789
-3.63092
-3.29933
-3.03725
-3.10909
-3.41425
-3.02313
-3.50237
-2.92976
-2.36456
-3.06973
-2.49183
-1.92962
-1.97126
-2.32828
-1.75481
-1.61525
-1.10903
-0.90651
-1.27436
-0.89036
-0.51377
0.092451
0.581745
0.355343
-0.07491
-0.12054
0.164328
-0.28473
-1.36711
-1.2532
-1.50967
-0.91427
0.073709
0.091322
-0.00799
0.176995
0.858138
1.723897
1.320153
1.48249
1.611494
0.536794
2.091724
2.798505
2.597879
1.426883
1.738959

-1.59364
-1.70946
-1.68763
-1.53351
-1.4117
-1.44509
-1.58693
-1.40513
-1.62788
-1.36174
-1.09903
-1.42679
-1.15819
-0.89688
-0.91623
-1.08217
-0.81562
-0.75076
-0.51547
-0.42134
-0.59232
-0.41384
-0.2388
0.042971
0.270392
0.165161
-0.03482
-0.05603
0.076379
-0.13234
-0.63543
-0.58248
-0.70168
-0.42495
0.034259
0.042446
-0.00372
0.082266
0.398858
0.801258
0.6136
0.689053
0.749014
0.249499
0.972222
1.30073
1.20748
0.663208
0.808258

3.428706
3.677889
3.630919
3.299333
3.037249
3.109085
3.414254
3.023127
3.50237
2.929761
2.36456
3.069729
2.491826
1.929619
1.971257
2.328281
1.754806
1.615251
1.109029
0.906511
1.274363
0.890363
0.513771
0.092451
0.581745
0.355343
0.074905
0.120538
0.164328
0.284726
1.367113
1.253204
1.509665
0.914274
0.073709
0.091322
0.007994
0.176995
0.858138
1.723897
1.320153
1.48249
1.611494
0.536794
2.091724
2.798505
2.597879
1.426883
1.738959

41

298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320

121.1647
121.3721
121.395
121.2873
121.4136
121.5732
121.4365
121.6702
121.952
122.2413
122.2009
122.2774
122.4696
122.6657
122.6772
122.5581
122.673
122.8212
122.6731
122.8954
123.1659
123.4437
123.3919

1.735339
1.727873
2.405022
2.612669
2.186397
2.326792
2.763483
2.529804
2.447976
2.658741
2.899136
3.822602
3.330373
3.334298
3.022838
3.241877
3.526995
3.778781
3.826863
3.304574
3.934138
4.356294
4.608079

0.806576
0.803106
1.117841
1.214354
1.016226
1.08148
1.284452
1.175839
1.137806
1.235768
1.347502
1.776725
1.547939
1.549763
1.404999
1.506807
1.639328
1.756357
1.778705
1.535948
1.828566
2.024782
2.14181

1.735339
1.727873
2.405022
2.612669
2.186397
2.326792
2.763483
2.529804
2.447976
2.658741
2.899136
3.822602
3.330373
3.334298
3.022838
3.241877
3.526995
3.778781
3.826863
3.304574
3.934138
4.356294
4.608079

42

Exponential model regression analysis data

F TD
JM
SA
O
N
TD
F
JM
SA
O
N
-SUMMARY
-0.5
10
0.5
00
OUTPUT0
Rl

F
JM
SA
O
N
TD

1
0

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.999819
R Square
0.999638
Adjusted R
Square
0.996366
Standard
Error
0.087422
Observations
320
ANOVA
df
13
307
320

SS
6470.44
2.346259
6472.786

0
4.022893
4.024852
4.027106
4.025687
4.031312
4.032941
4.034153
4.033204
4.021959
4.022782
4.023711
4.021298
0.002896

Standard
Error
#N/A
0.018835
0.018858
0.018882
0.018906
0.019075
0.019098
0.019121
0.019145
0.01874
0.018764
0.018787
0.018811
5.29E-05

t Stat
#N/A
213.5914
213.4251
213.2737
212.9269
211.343
211.171
210.9763
210.6678
214.6151
214.3917
214.1731
213.776
54.73394

Predicted ln(retail
trade)
4.021959
4.025678
4.029504
4.029987

Residuals
-0.25381
-0.24376
-0.23852
-0.239

Standard
Residuals
-2.96408
-2.8468
-2.78555
-2.79119

Regression
Residual
Total

Coefficients
Intercept
January
Febraury
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Time

MS
497.7262
0.007643

Significance
F
F
65125.78
0

P-value
#N/A
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2E-160

Lower 95%
#N/A
3.985832
3.987744
3.989951
3.988484
3.993778
3.995361
3.996527
3.995532
3.985083
3.98586
3.986743
3.984284
0.002792

Upper
95%
#N/A
4.059954
4.06196
4.064261
4.062889
4.068845
4.07052
4.071778
4.070875
4.058835
4.059704
4.060679
4.058312
0.003

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
1
2
3
4

Absolute
residuals
0.253806
0.243764
0.238519
0.239002

43

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53

4.034478
4.039333
4.044484
4.045961
4.054482
4.059007
4.063116
4.065063
4.056715
4.060434
4.06426
4.064743
4.069234
4.074089
4.079239
4.080717
4.089238
4.093763
4.097872
4.099819
4.09147
4.09519
4.099015
4.099498
4.10399
4.108844
4.113995
4.115472
4.123993
4.128519
4.132627
4.134574
4.126226
4.129945
4.133771
4.134254
4.138745
4.1436
4.148751
4.150228
4.158749
4.163274
4.167383
4.16933
4.160982
4.164701
4.168526
4.169009
4.173501

-0.2345
-0.23267
-0.22239
-0.21732
-0.21718
-0.21526
-0.21084
-0.21067
-0.19599
-0.18923
-0.1827
-0.17701
-0.17538
-0.1701
-0.16522
-0.16073
-0.15937
-0.15218
-0.15048
-0.14474
-0.12496
-0.12113
-0.11747
-0.10866
-0.1003
-0.09607
-0.08864
-0.083
-0.0827
-0.0698
-0.06531
-0.06043
-0.047
-0.03727
-0.03444
-0.03492
-0.0328
-0.02619
-0.01679
-0.01187
-0.00614
0.000285
0.002378
0.003518
0.01801
0.020398
0.024154
0.026688
0.01918

-2.73867
-2.71724
-2.59713
-2.53797
-2.53637
-2.51395
-2.46233
-2.4603
-2.28881
-2.20996
-2.13361
-2.06724
-2.04812
-1.98649
-1.9295
-1.87703
-1.86126
-1.77725
-1.7574
-1.6903
-1.45934
-1.41463
-1.37183
-1.26903
-1.17135
-1.12197
-1.03522
-0.96935
-0.96579
-0.81517
-0.76274
-0.70576
-0.54883
-0.43524
-0.40219
-0.40783
-0.38307
-0.30586
-0.19607
-0.13858
-0.07165
0.003332
0.027777
0.041083
0.210335
0.238218
0.282083
0.311671
0.223988

0.234505
0.232671
0.222386
0.21732
0.217183
0.215263
0.210843
0.210669
0.195985
0.189233
0.182696
0.177012
0.175375
0.170098
0.165218
0.160725
0.159375
0.152181
0.150481
0.144736
0.124959
0.121131
0.117466
0.108664
0.100299
0.096071
0.088643
0.083003
0.082698
0.069801
0.065311
0.060432
0.046995
0.037269
0.034439
0.034922
0.032802
0.02619
0.016789
0.011866
0.006135
0.000285
0.002378
0.003518
0.01801
0.020398
0.024154
0.026688
0.01918

44

54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102

4.178356
4.183506
4.184983
4.193505
4.19803
4.202138
4.204085
4.195737
4.199457
4.203282
4.203765
4.208257
4.213111
4.218262
4.219739
4.22826
4.232786
4.236894
4.238841
4.230493
4.234212
4.238038
4.238521
4.243012
4.247867
4.253018
4.254495
4.263016
4.267541
4.27165
4.273597
4.265248
4.268968
4.272793
4.273276
4.277768
4.282622
4.287773
4.28925
4.297771
4.302297
4.306405
4.308352
4.300004
4.303723
4.307549
4.308032
4.312523
4.317378

0.018846
0.024167
0.015222
0.009694
0.024415
0.023234
0.027118
0.035467
0.037544
0.032273
0.037562
0.041666
0.042501
0.037351
0.038707
0.031599
0.032707
0.035597
0.03365
0.043392
0.041064
0.045549
0.043686
0.046076
0.046694
0.045627
0.04415
0.038343
0.039223
0.036461
0.038544
0.046892
0.047186
0.048687
0.053502
0.05428
0.05336
0.049518
0.049347
0.046034
0.044103
0.047736
0.049638
0.057986
0.059375
0.061899
0.063944
0.063234
0.063398

0.220097
0.282233
0.177764
0.113216
0.285127
0.271344
0.316701
0.414196
0.438461
0.376897
0.438664
0.486599
0.496354
0.436201
0.452034
0.369027
0.381972
0.415717
0.392978
0.506749
0.479567
0.531943
0.510182
0.538104
0.545313
0.53286
0.51561
0.447788
0.458066
0.425814
0.450134
0.547629
0.551063
0.568589
0.624821
0.633915
0.623167
0.578291
0.576296
0.537608
0.515053
0.557487
0.579695
0.677189
0.693414
0.722887
0.746774
0.738474
0.740391

0.018846
0.024167
0.015222
0.009694
0.024415
0.023234
0.027118
0.035467
0.037544
0.032273
0.037562
0.041666
0.042501
0.037351
0.038707
0.031599
0.032707
0.035597
0.03365
0.043392
0.041064
0.045549
0.043686
0.046076
0.046694
0.045627
0.04415
0.038343
0.039223
0.036461
0.038544
0.046892
0.047186
0.048687
0.053502
0.05428
0.05336
0.049518
0.049347
0.046034
0.044103
0.047736
0.049638
0.057986
0.059375
0.061899
0.063944
0.063234
0.063398

45

103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151

4.322529
4.324006
4.332527
4.337052
4.341161
4.343108
4.33476
4.338479
4.342305
4.342788
4.347279
4.352134
4.357284
4.358762
4.367283
4.371808
4.375916
4.377864
4.369515
4.373235
4.37706
4.377543
4.382035
4.386889
4.39204
4.393517
4.402038
4.406564
4.410672
4.412619
4.404271
4.40799
4.411816
4.412299
4.41679
4.421645
4.426796
4.428273
4.436794
4.441319
4.445428
4.447375
4.439027
4.442746
4.446571
4.447054
4.451546
4.456401
4.461551

0.061995
0.066733
0.064388
0.062323
0.067994
0.066047
0.074396
0.074319
0.072915
0.071222
0.070356
0.070315
0.069955
0.072055
0.075369
0.074366
0.076103
0.077646
0.087155
0.089219
0.088848
0.089514
0.089604
0.091583
0.092092
0.096242
0.09666
0.097681
0.101286
0.100436
0.108784
0.110532
0.109973
0.10949
0.112578
0.114175
0.112235
0.110758
0.106501
0.106222
0.107396
0.105449
0.11485
0.119517
0.121935
0.117294
0.133422
0.128567
0.126473

0.724005
0.779337
0.751957
0.727838
0.794073
0.771334
0.868829
0.867938
0.851539
0.831767
0.821653
0.821172
0.816964
0.841497
0.880192
0.868488
0.888763
0.906787
1.017838
1.041947
1.037611
1.045386
1.046442
1.069554
1.075494
1.123964
1.128839
1.140763
1.182865
1.172939
1.270433
1.290849
1.284317
1.278676
1.314745
1.333395
1.310733
1.293482
1.24377
1.240511
1.254224
1.231485
1.34128
1.395777
1.424016
1.369815
1.558164
1.501469
1.477012

0.061995
0.066733
0.064388
0.062323
0.067994
0.066047
0.074396
0.074319
0.072915
0.071222
0.070356
0.070315
0.069955
0.072055
0.075369
0.074366
0.076103
0.077646
0.087155
0.089219
0.088848
0.089514
0.089604
0.091583
0.092092
0.096242
0.09666
0.097681
0.101286
0.100436
0.108784
0.110532
0.109973
0.10949
0.112578
0.114175
0.112235
0.110758
0.106501
0.106222
0.107396
0.105449
0.11485
0.119517
0.121935
0.117294
0.133422
0.128567
0.126473

46

152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200

4.463028
4.47155
4.476075
4.480183
4.48213
4.473782
4.477502
4.481327
4.48181
4.486302
4.491156
4.496307
4.497784
4.506305
4.510831
4.514939
4.516886
4.508538
4.512257
4.516083
4.516566
4.521057
4.525912
4.531063
4.53254
4.541061
4.545586
4.549695
4.551642
4.543293
4.547013
4.550838
4.551321
4.555813
4.560667
4.565818
4.567295
4.575816
4.580342
4.58445
4.586397
4.578049
4.581768
4.585594
4.586077
4.590568
4.595423
4.600574
4.602051

0.126012
0.12357
0.124083
0.121982
0.120035
0.12537
0.117618
0.118831
0.11331
0.109828
0.106989
0.103851
0.103378
0.096863
0.095339
0.093227
0.09128
0.097632
0.094911
0.096063
0.094587
0.093073
0.093161
0.088996
0.085547
0.078012
0.075457
0.074297
0.07235
0.081679
0.079919
0.079025
0.077565
0.071119
0.060376
0.052268
0.052764
0.041282
0.037745
0.039542
0.037595
0.045943
0.041242
0.042316
0.044761
0.0461
0.046079
0.043817
0.043301

1.471636
1.443116
1.449101
1.424571
1.401832
1.464133
1.373606
1.387764
1.323288
1.282625
1.249475
1.212821
1.207301
1.131215
1.113419
1.088748
1.06601
1.140194
1.108419
1.121874
1.104629
1.086951
1.087984
1.039343
0.999058
0.911067
0.881229
0.867682
0.844943
0.953893
0.933333
0.922888
0.905848
0.830562
0.705102
0.610415
0.616199
0.482116
0.440801
0.461788
0.439049
0.536544
0.481642
0.494185
0.522741
0.538384
0.538134
0.511718
0.505692

0.126012
0.12357
0.124083
0.121982
0.120035
0.12537
0.117618
0.118831
0.11331
0.109828
0.106989
0.103851
0.103378
0.096863
0.095339
0.093227
0.09128
0.097632
0.094911
0.096063
0.094587
0.093073
0.093161
0.088996
0.085547
0.078012
0.075457
0.074297
0.07235
0.081679
0.079919
0.079025
0.077565
0.071119
0.060376
0.052268
0.052764
0.041282
0.037745
0.039542
0.037595
0.045943
0.041242
0.042316
0.044761
0.0461
0.046079
0.043817
0.043301

47

201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249

4.610572
4.615097
4.619206
4.621153
4.612805
4.616524
4.620349
4.620833
4.625324
4.630179
4.635329
4.636807
4.645328
4.649853
4.653961
4.655909
4.64756
4.65128
4.655105
4.655588
4.66008
4.664934
4.670085
4.671562
4.680083
4.684609
4.688717
4.690664
4.682316
4.686035
4.689861
4.690344
4.694835
4.69969
4.704841
4.706318
4.714839
4.719364
4.723473
4.72542
4.717072
4.720791
4.724616
4.725099
4.729591
4.734446
4.739596
4.741073
4.749595

0.037658
0.03409
0.030938
0.028034
0.038294
0.032663
0.03075
0.029311
0.025775
0.023782
0.021484
0.022852
0.016223
0.010752
0.007589
0.006587
0.015879
0.015926
0.018658
0.019108
0.016481
0.011626
0.009265
0.008716
-0.00073
-0.00248
-0.00659
-0.00668
0.000741
-0.00113
-0.00773
-0.00914
-0.00901
-0.0111
-0.01533
-0.01957
-0.02441
-0.02985
-0.03212
-0.03499
-0.02572
-0.02578
-0.03052
-0.03467
-0.03549
-0.03943
-0.03912
-0.03515
-0.04097

0.439785
0.398117
0.361306
0.327397
0.447222
0.381456
0.359109
0.342309
0.301015
0.277734
0.250901
0.266875
0.189459
0.125566
0.088629
0.076923
0.185441
0.185991
0.217896
0.223154
0.192468
0.135773
0.108196
0.101784
-0.00857
-0.02893
-0.07691
-0.07804
0.008652
-0.0132
-0.09027
-0.10673
-0.10519
-0.12961
-0.17902
-0.22852
-0.28506
-0.34864
-0.37517
-0.40863
-0.30041
-0.30107
-0.35643
-0.40489
-0.41452
-0.46054
-0.45682
-0.41054
-0.47842

0.037658
0.03409
0.030938
0.028034
0.038294
0.032663
0.03075
0.029311
0.025775
0.023782
0.021484
0.022852
0.016223
0.010752
0.007589
0.006587
0.015879
0.015926
0.018658
0.019108
0.016481
0.011626
0.009265
0.008716
0.000734
0.002477
0.006586
0.006683
0.000741
0.00113
0.00773
0.009139
0.009007
0.011098
0.015329
0.019568
0.024409
0.029853
0.032125
0.03499
0.025724
0.02578
0.03052
0.034669
0.035494
0.039435
0.039116
0.035153
0.040966

48

250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298

4.75412
4.758228
4.760175
4.751827
4.755546
4.759372
4.759855
4.764346
4.769201
4.774352
4.775829
4.78435
4.788875
4.792984
4.794931
4.786583
4.790302
4.794128
4.794611
4.799102
4.803957
4.809108
4.810585
4.819106
4.823631
4.82774
4.829687
4.821338
4.825058
4.828883
4.829366
4.833858
4.838712
4.843863
4.84534
4.853861
4.858387
4.862495
4.864442
4.856094
4.859813
4.863639
4.864122
4.868613
4.873468
4.878619
4.880096
4.888617
4.893142

-0.04549
-0.0469
-0.04525
-0.03512
-0.03794
-0.04266
-0.04046
-0.04674
-0.04358
-0.04079
-0.04844
-0.05079
-0.0483
-0.05066
-0.05523
-0.04252
-0.04363
-0.0414
-0.04102
-0.04637
-0.04521
-0.04437
-0.04075
-0.04419
-0.04872
-0.05452
-0.05646
-0.04643
-0.05268
-0.06415
-0.06463
-0.06912
-0.06633
-0.06055
-0.06202
-0.07055
-0.07173
-0.06836
-0.06288
-0.05865
-0.0599
-0.06126
-0.07164
-0.06132
-0.05804
-0.06238
-0.07362
-0.07887
-0.08177

-0.53127
-0.5477
-0.5285
-0.4101
-0.44309
-0.49821
-0.47256
-0.54586
-0.50901
-0.47635
-0.56572
-0.59311
-0.56408
-0.59168
-0.645
-0.49658
-0.50956
-0.48349
-0.47906
-0.54158
-0.52796
-0.51821
-0.47587
-0.51611
-0.56895
-0.63666
-0.6594
-0.54218
-0.61522
-0.74916
-0.7548
-0.80725
-0.77469
-0.7071
-0.72435
-0.82386
-0.83768
-0.79833
-0.73438
-0.68497
-0.69953
-0.71541
-0.83668
-0.71611
-0.67778
-0.72848
-0.85976
-0.92114
-0.95497

0.045491
0.046898
0.045254
0.035116
0.037941
0.04266
0.040464
0.046741
0.043585
0.040788
0.048441
0.050787
0.048301
0.050664
0.05523
0.042521
0.043632
0.0414
0.04102
0.046374
0.045208
0.044373
0.040748
0.044193
0.048718
0.054516
0.056463
0.046425
0.05268
0.064148
0.064632
0.069123
0.066334
0.060547
0.062024
0.070545
0.071729
0.068359
0.062883
0.058652
0.059899
0.061258
0.071643
0.061319
0.058037
0.062378
0.073619
0.078875
0.081771

49

299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320

4.897251
4.899198
4.89085
4.894569
4.898394
4.898878
4.903369
4.908224
4.913374
4.914851
4.923373
4.927898
4.932006
4.933953
4.925605
4.929325
4.93315
4.933633
4.938125
4.942979
4.94813
4.949607

-0.08425
-0.08053
-0.07137
-0.07752
-0.07892
-0.07698
-0.08148
-0.08472
-0.08586
-0.08574
-0.0863
-0.0932
-0.09572
-0.10006
-0.09091
-0.09146
-0.09212
-0.09339
-0.10026
-0.09801
-0.09766
-0.09758

-0.98396
-0.94048
-0.83355
-0.9053
-0.92166
-0.89906
-0.95152
-0.98942
-1.00273
-1.00129
-1.00782
-1.08849
-1.11792
-1.1685
-1.06171
-1.06808
-1.0758
-1.09066
-1.17085
-1.14455
-1.14056
-1.13955

0.084254
0.080531
0.071375
0.077518
0.07892
0.076984
0.081476
0.084721
0.085861
0.085738
0.086297
0.093205
0.095725
0.100055
0.090912
0.091457
0.092118
0.093391
0.100257
0.098005
0.097663
0.097577

50

Comparison of the 3 models

Month

CPI Index

Predicted-Lin

Absolute Residuals

Absolute Residuals

Predicted-Exp

9.71532922

PredictedQuad
45.09294964

1.79294964

55.81033677

Absolute
Residuals
12.51034

1978-09

43.3

53.01532922

1978-10

43.9

53.27829218

9.37829218

45.50399446

1.60399446

56.01830041

12.11830

1978-11

44.3

53.57458848

9.27458848

45.94837262

1.64837262

56.23300876

11.93301

1978-12

44.3

53.57458848

9.27458848

46.09645448

1.79645448

56.26017885

11.96018

1979-01

44.7

53.94495885

9.24495885

46.61490672

1.91490672

56.51343671

11.81344

1979-02

45

54.36347737

9.36347737

47.18150709

2.18150709

56.78845881

11.78846

1979-03

45.7

54.78940329

9.08940329

47.75551488

2.05551488

57.08171548

11.38172

1979-04

46

54.88569959

8.88569959

47.99989304

1.99989304

57.16609394

11.16609

1979-05

46.4

55.40932653

9.00932653

48.36119948

1.96119948

57.65529526

11.25530

1979-06

46.7

55.74394191

9.04394191

48.83820127

2.13820127

57.91679555

11.21680

1979-07

47.1

56.08240345

8.98240345

49.31904921

2.21904921

58.15523373

11.05523

1979-08

47.2

56.2362496

9.03624960

49.61528177

2.41528177

58.26857616

11.06858

1979-09

47.5

55.95489079

8.45489079

49.78101626

2.28101626

57.78416179

10.28416

1979-10

48

56.21785375

8.21785375

50.18067018

2.18067018

57.9994804

9.99948

1979-11

48.5

56.51415005

8.01415005

50.61365742

2.11365742

58.22178227

9.72178

1979-12

48.8

56.51415005

7.71415005

50.75034837

1.95034837

58.24991327

9.44991

1980-01

49.1

56.88452042

7.78452042

51.25740969

2.15740969

58.51212802

9.41213

1980-02

49.6

57.30303894

7.70303894

51.81261916

2.21261916

58.79687673

9.19688

1980-03

50.1

57.72896486

7.62896486

52.37523603

2.27523603

59.10050491

9.00050

1980-04

50.4

57.82526116

7.42526116

52.60822328

2.20822328

59.18786756

8.78787

1980-05

50.9

58.3488881

7.44888810

52.9581388

2.05813880

59.69437029

8.79437

1980-06

51.5

58.68350348

7.18350348

53.42374968

1.92374968

59.96511897

8.46512

1980-07

51.8

59.02196502

7.22196502

53.89320671

2.09320671

60.21198991

8.41199

1980-08

52.2

59.17581117

6.97581117

54.17804836

1.97804836

60.32934088

8.12934

1980-09

52.8

58.89445236

6.09445236

54.33239194

1.53239194

59.82779439

7.02779

1980-10

53.2

59.15741532

5.95741532

54.72065494

1.52065494

60.05072811

6.85073

1980-11

53.6

59.45371162

5.85371162

55.14225127

1.54225127

60.28089205

6.68089

1980-12

54.1

59.45371162

5.35371162

55.26755131

1.16755131

60.31001795

6.21002

1981-01

54.8

59.82408199

5.02408199

55.76322172

0.96322172

60.58150636

5.78151

1981-02

55.3

60.24260051

4.94260051

56.30704027

1.00704027

60.87632567

5.57633

1981-03

56

60.66852643

4.66852643

56.85826623

0.85826623

61.19069217

5.19069

1981-04

56.4

60.76482273

4.36482273

57.07986257

0.67986257

61.28114454

4.88114

1981-05

56.9

61.28844967

4.38844967

57.41838718

0.51838718

61.80556058

4.90556

1981-06

57.9

61.62306505

3.72306505

57.87260714

0.02739286

62.08588474

4.18588

1981-07

58.4

61.96152659

3.56152659

58.33067326

0.06932674

62.34148668

3.94149

1981-08

58.8

62.11537274

3.31537274

58.604124

0.19587600

62.46298796

3.66299

1981-09

59.1

61.83401393

2.73401393

58.74707667

0.35292333

61.94370345

2.84370

1981-10

59.9

62.09697689

2.19697689

59.12394875

0.77605125

62.17452159

2.27452

1981-11

60.3

62.39327319

2.09327319

59.53415417

0.76584583

62.41282565

2.11283

1981-12

60.3

62.39327319

2.09327319

59.6480633

0.65193670

62.44298164

2.14298

1982-01

60.7

62.76364356

2.06364356

60.13234279

0.56765721

62.72407169

2.02407

1982-02

61.4

63.18216208

1.78216208

60.66477044

0.73522956

63.02931778

1.62932

1982-03

62.3

63.608088

1.30808800

61.20460549

1.09539451

63.35480236

1.05480

51

1982-04

62.7

63.7043843

1.00438430

61.41481091

1.28518909

63.44845374

0.74845

1982-05

63.6

64.22801124

0.62801124

61.74194461

1.85805539

63.99141662

0.39142

1982-06

64.3

64.56262662

0.26262662

62.18477366

2.11522634

64.2816549

0.01835

1982-07

64.7

64.90108816

0.20108816

62.63144886

2.06855114

64.54629663

0.15370

1982-08

64.9

65.05493431

0.15493431

62.89350869

2.00649131

64.67209501

0.22790

1982-09

65.3

64.7735755

0.52642450

63.02507044

2.27492956

64.13444514

1.16555

1982-10

65.7

65.03653846

0.66346154

63.39055162

2.30944838

64.37342654

1.32657

1982-11

66.2

65.33283476

0.86716524

63.78936613

2.41063387

64.62015862

1.57984

1982-12

66.4

65.33283476

1.06716524

63.89188434

2.50811566

64.65138113

1.74862

1983-01

66.2

65.70320513

0.49679487

64.36477292

1.83522708

64.94241239

1.25759

1983-02

66.5

66.12172365

0.37827635

64.88580965

1.61419035

65.25845401

1.24155

1983-03

67.2

66.54764957

0.65235043

65.41425379

1.78574621

65.5954499

1.60455

1983-04

66.7

66.64394587

0.05605413

65.6130683

1.08693170

65.69241341

1.00759

1983-05

66.9

67.16757281

0.26757281

65.92881108

0.97118892

66.25457907

0.64542

1983-06

68.2

67.50218819

0.69781181

66.36024922

1.83975078

66.55508212

1.64492

1983-07

68.4

67.84064973

0.55935027

66.79553352

1.60446648

66.82908333

1.57092

1983-08

68.8

67.99449588

0.80550412

67.04620243

1.75379757

66.95933078

1.84067

1983-09

68.8

67.71313707

1.08686293

67.16637327

1.63362673

66.40266603

2.39733

1983-10

69.2

67.97610003

1.22389997

67.52046354

1.67953646

66.65009941

2.54990

1983-11

69.1

68.27239633

0.82760367

67.90788713

1.19211287

66.90555758

2.19444

1983-12

69.5

68.27239633

1.22760367

67.99901443

1.50098557

66.93788432

2.56212

1984-01

70.1

68.6427667

1.45723330

68.4605121

1.63948790

67.23920839

2.86079

1984-02

70.5

69.06128522

1.43871478

68.97015792

1.52984208

67.56642735

2.93357

1984-03

70.5

69.48721114

1.01278886

69.48721114

1.01278886

67.91534165

2.58466

1984-04

70.7

69.58350744

1.11649256

69.67463474

1.02536526

68.01573443

2.68427

1984-05

70.8

70.10713438

0.69286562

69.97898661

0.82101339

68.59778202

2.20222

1984-06

71.2

70.44174976

0.75825024

70.39903384

0.80096616

68.90891285

2.29109

1984-07

71.7

70.7802113

0.91978870

70.82292722

0.87707278

69.19260457

2.50740

1984-08

71.7

70.93405745

0.76594255

71.06220522

0.63779478

69.32745844

2.37254

1984-09

71.8

70.65269864

1.14730136

71.17098515

0.62901485

68.75110632

3.04889

1984-10

71.9

70.9156616

0.98433840

71.5136845

0.38631550

69.00729058

2.89271

1984-11

72.5

71.2119579

1.28804210

71.88971719

0.61028281

69.27178346

3.22822

1984-12

72.4

71.2119579

1.18804210

71.96945357

0.43054643

69.30525349

3.09475

1985-01

72.9

71.58232827

1.31767173

72.41956033

0.48043967

69.61723438

3.28277

1985-02

73.3

72.00084679

1.29915321

72.91781524

0.38218476

69.95602598

3.34397

1985-03

73.6

72.42677271

1.17322729

73.42347755

0.17652245

70.31728022

3.28272

1985-04

73.6

72.52306901

1.07693099

73.59951023

0.00048977

70.42122355

3.17878

1985-05

73.8

73.04669595

0.75330405

73.89247119

0.09247119

71.02385622

2.77614

1985-06

74.2

73.38131133

0.81868867

74.30112751

0.10112751

71.3459907

2.85401

1985-07

74.3

73.71977287

0.58022713

74.71362998

0.41362998

71.63971565

2.66028

1985-08

74.6

73.87361903

0.72638097

74.94151706

0.34151706

71.77933885

2.82066

1985-09

74.6

73.59226021

1.00773979

75.03890608

0.43890608

71.18260308

3.41740

1985-10

74.9

73.85522317

1.04477683

75.37021452

0.47021452

71.44784773

3.45215

1985-11

75.3

74.15151947

1.14848053

75.73485629

0.43485629

71.72169483

3.57831

1985-12

75.7

74.15151947

1.54848053

75.80320177

0.10320177

71.75634859

3.94365

1986-01

76.1

74.52188984

1.57811016

76.24191761

0.14191761

72.0793632

4.02064

1986-02

76.4

74.94040836

1.45959164

76.7287816

0.32878160

72.43013672

3.96986

52

1986-03

76.5

75.36633428

1.13366572

77.22305301

0.72305301

72.80416732

3.69583

1986-04

76.6

75.46263058

1.13736942

77.38769478

0.78769478

72.91178678

3.68821

1986-05

77

75.98625752

1.01374248

77.66926483

0.66926483

73.53573255

3.46427

1986-06

77.2

76.3208729

0.87912710

78.06653023

0.86653023

73.86925985

3.33074

1986-07

77.8

76.65933444

1.14066556

78.46764179

0.66764179

74.17337287

3.62663

1986-08

78.1

76.8131806

1.28681940

78.68413796

0.58413796

74.31793408

3.78207

1986-09

78.1

76.53182178

1.56817822

78.77013607

0.67013607

73.70009376

4.39991

1986-10

78.5

76.79478474

1.70521526

79.09005359

0.59005359

73.97471922

4.52528

1986-11

79

77.09108104

1.90891896

79.44330445

0.44330445

74.25825138

4.74175

1986-12

79.2

77.09108104

2.10891896

79.50025901

0.30025901

74.29413072

4.90587

1987-01

79.5

77.46145141

2.03854859

79.92758394

0.42758394

74.62856928

4.87143

1987-02

79.9

77.87996993

2.02003007

80.40305702

0.50305702

74.99174849

4.90825

1987-03

80.2

78.30589585

1.89410415

80.88593751

0.68593751

75.3790073

4.82099

1987-04

80.7

78.40219215

2.29780785

81.03918837

0.33918837

75.49043291

5.20957

1987-05

81.2

78.92581909

2.27418091

81.30936751

0.10936751

76.13644555

5.06355

1987-06

81.4

79.26043447

2.13956553

81.695242

0.29524200

76.4817686

4.91823

1987-07

82.2

79.59889601

2.60110399

82.08496264

0.11503736

76.79663708

5.40336

1987-08

82.2

79.75274217

2.44725783

82.2900679

0.09006790

76.94631093

5.25369

1987-09

82.2

79.47138335

2.72861665

82.3646751

0.16467510

76.30661967

5.89338

1987-10

82.5

79.73434631

2.76565369

82.67320171

0.17320171

76.59095771

5.90904

1987-11

82.7

80.03064261

2.66935739

83.01506166

0.31506166

76.88451746

5.81548

1987-12

82.6

80.03064261

2.56935739

83.06062531

0.46062531

76.92166573

5.67833

1988-01

82.9

80.40101298

2.49898702

83.47655933

0.57655933

77.26793226

5.63207

1988-02

83.3

80.8195315

2.48046850

83.9406415

0.64064150

77.64395591

5.65604

1988-03

83.7

81.24545742

2.45454258

84.41213107

0.71213107

78.04491076

5.65509

1988-04

84

81.34175372

2.65824628

84.55399102

0.55399102

78.16027712

5.83972

1988-05

85

81.86538066

3.13461934

84.81277924

0.18722076

78.82913707

6.17086

1988-06

85.3

82.19999604

3.10000396

85.18726282

0.11273718

79.18667304

6.11333

1988-07

85.8

82.53845758

3.26154242

85.56559255

0.23440745

79.51267737

6.28732

1988-08

86.1

82.69230374

3.40769626

85.7593069

0.34069310

79.66764468

6.43236

1988-09

86.2

82.41094492

3.78905508

85.82252318

0.37747682

79.00532968

7.19467

1988-10

86.7

82.67390788

4.02609212

86.11965888

0.58034112

79.29972381

7.40028

1988-11

87

82.97020418

4.02979582

86.45012792

0.54987208

79.60366578

7.39633

1988-12

87.1

82.97020418

4.12979582

86.48430066

0.61569934

79.64212787

7.45787

1989-01

87.5

83.34057455

4.15942545

86.88884376

0.61115624

80.00064069

7.49936

1989-02

88.1

83.75909307

4.34090693

87.34153502

0.75846498

80.38996303

7.71004

1989-03

88.6

84.18501899

4.41498101

87.80163368

0.79836632

80.80509832

7.79490

1989-04

89.1

84.28131529

4.81868471

87.93210272

1.16789728

80.9245448

8.17546

1989-05

89.9

84.80494223

5.09505777

88.17950003

1.72049997

81.61706009

8.28294

1989-06

90.4

85.13955761

5.26044239

88.54259269

1.85740731

81.98724091

8.41276

1989-07

91.1

85.47801915

5.62198085

88.90953151

2.19046849

82.32477492

8.77523

1989-08

91.2

85.63186531

5.56813469

89.09185495

2.10814505

82.48522291

8.71478

1989-09

91.2

85.35050649

5.84949351

89.14368032

2.05631968

81.79948404

9.40052

1989-10

91.7

85.61346945

6.08653055

89.42942511

2.27057489

82.10428991

9.59571

1989-11

92

85.90976575

6.09023425

89.74850323

2.25149677

82.41898129

9.58102

1989-12

92

85.90976575

6.09023425

89.77128505

2.22871495

82.45880365

9.54120

1990-01

92.7

86.28013612

6.41986388

90.16443725

2.53556275

82.82999587

9.87000

53

1990-02

93.3

86.69865464

6.60134536

90.60573759

2.69426241

83.23308725

10.06691

1990-03

93.6

87.12458056

6.47541944

91.05444534

2.54555466

83.66290448

9.93710

1990-04

93.6

87.22087686

6.37912314

91.17352346

2.42647654

83.78657538

9.81342

1990-05

94

87.7445038

6.25549620

91.40952986

2.59047014

84.50358262

9.49642

1990-06

94.4

88.07911918

6.32088082

91.76123162

2.63876838

84.88685551

9.51314

1990-07

94.9

88.41758072

6.48241928

92.11677953

2.78322047

85.23632696

9.66367

1990-08

94.9

88.57142688

6.32857312

92.28771205

2.61228795

85.40244946

9.49755

1990-09

95

88.29006806

6.70993194

92.32814651

2.67185349

84.6924583

10.30754

1990-10

95.8

88.55303102

7.24696898

92.60250038

3.19749962

85.00804413

10.79196

1990-11

96.4

88.84932732

7.55067268

92.91018759

3.48981241

85.3338651

11.06613

1990-12

96

88.84932732

7.15067268

92.9215785

3.07842150

85.37509584

10.62490

1991-01

98

89.21969769

8.78030231

93.30333979

4.69666021

85.75941589

12.24058

1991-02

98

89.63821621

8.36178379

93.73324922

4.26675078

86.17676326

11.82324

1991-03

98.3

90.06414213

8.23585787

94.17056606

4.12943394

86.62178169

11.67822

1991-04

98.4

90.16043843

8.23956157

94.27825326

4.12174674

86.74982642

11.65017

1991-05

99

90.68406537

8.31593463

94.50286875

4.49713125

87.49219181

11.50781

1991-06

99.5

91.01868075

8.48131925

94.84317959

4.65682041

87.88901977

11.61098

1991-07

99.7

91.35714229

8.34285771

95.18733659

4.51266341

88.25085087

11.44915

1991-08

99.7

91.51098845

8.18901155

95.3468782

4.35312180

88.42284856

11.27715

1991-09

99.4

91.22962963

8.17037037

95.37592175

4.02407825

87.68774739

11.71225

1991-10

99

91.49259259

7.50740741

95.63888471

3.36111529

88.01449444

10.98551

1991-11

99.5

91.78888889

7.71111111

95.935181

3.56481900

88.3518386

11.14816

1991-12

99

91.78888889

7.21111111

95.935181

3.06481900

88.39452754

10.60547

1992-01

99.1

92.15925926

6.94074074

96.30555137

2.79444863

88.7924397

10.30756

1992-02

99.3

92.57777778

6.72222222

96.72406989

2.57593011

89.22454725

10.07545

1992-03

99.5

93.0037037

6.49629630

97.14999582

2.35000418

89.6853045

9.81470

1992-04

99.6

93.1

6.50000000

97.24629212

2.35370788

89.81787774

9.78212

1992-05

99.8

93.62362694

6.17637306

97.45951669

2.34048331

90.58649811

9.21350

1992-06

100.1

93.95824232

6.14175768

97.78843662

2.31156338

90.99736055

9.10264

1992-07

100.3

94.29670386

6.00329614

98.1212027

2.17879730

91.3719884

8.92801

1992-08

100.3

94.45055002

5.84944998

98.2693534

2.03064660

91.55006908

8.74993

1992-09

100.1

94.1691912

5.93080880

98.28700603

1.81299397

90.78896984

9.31103

1992-10

100.2

94.43215416

5.76784584

98.53857808

1.66142192

91.12727283

9.07273

1992-11

100.7

94.72845046

5.97154954

98.82348347

1.87651653

91.47654773

9.22345

1992-12

100.6

94.72845046

5.87154954

98.81209256

1.78790744

91.52074643

9.07925

1993-01

100.9

95.09882083

5.80117917

99.17107201

1.72892799

91.93273142

8.96727

1993-02

101.4

95.51733935

5.88266065

99.57819962

1.82180038

92.38012117

9.01988

1993-03

101.5

95.94326527

5.55673473

99.99273463

1.50726537

92.85717386

8.64283

1993-04

101.3

96.03956157

5.26043843

100.07764

1.22235998

92.99443578

8.30556

1993-05

101.4

96.56318851

4.83681149

100.2794737

1.12052632

93.79023968

7.60976

1993-06

101.6

96.89780389

4.70219611

100.5970027

1.00299730

94.21563295

7.38437

1993-07

101.9

97.23626543

4.66373457

100.9183779

0.98162213

94.60351014

7.29649

1993-08

101.9

97.39011159

4.50988841

101.0551377

0.84486235

94.78788893

7.11211

1993-09

102

97.10875277

4.89124723

101.0613994

0.93860063

93.99987215

8.00013

1993-10

102.2

97.37171573

4.82828427

101.3015805

0.89841949

94.3501398

7.84986

1993-11

102.5

97.66801203

4.83198797

101.575095

0.92490502

94.71176738

7.78823

1993-12

102.4

97.66801203

4.73198797

101.5523132

0.84768684

94.75752924

7.64247

54

1994-01

102.2

98.0383824

4.16161760

101.8999017

0.30009830

95.18408476

7.01592

1994-02

101.6

98.45690092

3.14309908

102.2956384

0.69563840

95.64729719

5.95270

1994-03

101.3

98.88282684

2.41717316

102.6987825

1.39878250

96.14122164

5.15878

1994-04

101.5

98.97912314

2.52087686

102.772297

1.27229697

96.28333805

5.21666

1994-05

101.2

99.50275008

1.69724992

102.9627397

1.76273972

97.10728687

4.09271

1994-06

101.3

99.83736546

1.46263454

103.2688778

1.96887783

97.54772489

3.75228

1994-07

101.9

100.175827

1.72417300

103.5788621

1.67886208

97.94931999

3.95068

1994-08

101.9

100.3296732

1.57032684

103.704231

1.80423096

98.14021965

3.75978

1994-09

101.9

100.0483143

1.85168566

103.6991018

1.79910177

97.32433335

4.57567

1994-10

101.8

100.3112773

1.48872270

103.927892

2.12789199

97.68698879

4.11301

1994-11

102.3

100.6075736

1.69242640

104.1900156

1.89001555

98.06140593

4.23859

1994-12

102.6

100.6075736

1.99242640

104.1558428

1.55584281

98.10878624

4.49121

1995-01

103.2

100.977944

2.22205603

104.4920404

1.29204045

98.5504276

4.64957

1995-02

103.7

101.3964625

2.30353751

104.8763862

1.17638623

99.0300223

4.66998

1995-03

104

101.8223884

2.17761159

105.2681394

1.26813942

99.54141521

4.45858

1995-04

104.1

101.9186847

2.18131529

105.330263

1.23026298

99.6885578

4.41144

1995-05

104.4

102.4423116

1.95768835

105.5093148

1.10931481

100.5416469

3.85835

1995-06

104.5

102.776927

1.72307297

105.804062

1.30406201

100.9976618

3.50234

1995-07

104.6

103.1153886

1.48461143

106.1026554

1.50265535

101.41346

3.18654

1995-08

104.5

103.2692347

1.23076527

106.2166333

1.71663331

101.6111111

2.88889

1995-09

104.7

102.9878759

1.71212409

106.2001132

1.50011321

100.7663696

3.93363

1995-10

104.5

103.2508389

1.24916113

106.4175125

1.91751252

101.141851

3.35815

1995-11

104.7

103.5471352

1.15286483

106.6682452

1.96824517

101.52951

3.17049

1995-12

104.6

103.5471352

1.05286483

106.6226815

2.02268152

101.578566

3.02143

1996-01

104.7

103.9175055

0.78249446

106.9474882

2.24748824

102.0358267

2.66417

1996-02

105

104.3360241

0.66397594

107.3204431

2.32044311

102.5323831

2.46762

1996-03

105.3

104.76195

0.53805002

107.7008054

2.40080538

103.0618623

2.23814

1996-04

105.6

104.8582463

0.74175372

107.751538

2.15153803

103.2142088

2.38579

1996-05

105.8

105.3818732

0.41812678

107.919199

2.11919896

104.0974688

1.70253

1996-06

105.7

105.7164886

0.01648860

108.2025552

2.50255524

104.5696114

1.13039

1996-07

105.8

106.0549501

0.25495014

108.4897577

2.68975767

105.000115

0.79989

1996-08

105.9

106.2087963

0.30879630

108.5923447

2.69234472

105.2047564

0.69524

1996-09

106

105.9274375

0.07256252

108.5644337

2.56443370

104.3301392

1.66986

1996-10

106.4

106.1904004

0.20959956

108.7704421

2.37044210

104.7189001

1.68110

1996-11

107.1

106.4866967

0.61330326

109.0097838

1.90978384

105.1202693

1.97973

1996-12

107.2

106.4866967

0.71330326

108.9528293

1.75282928

105.1710602

2.02894

1997-01

107.4

106.8570671

0.54293289

109.2662451

1.86624508

105.6444928

1.75551

1997-02

107.4

107.2755856

0.12441437

109.627809

2.22780904

106.1586107

1.24139

1997-03

107.7

107.7015116

0.00151155

109.9967804

2.29678040

106.7068157

0.99318

1997-04

107.8

107.7978079

0.00219215

110.0361221

2.23612214

106.8645503

0.93545

1997-05

107.7

108.3214348

0.62143479

110.1923922

2.49239215

107.7790483

0.07905

1997-06

108

108.6560502

0.65605017

110.4643575

2.46435752

108.2678889

0.26789

1997-07

108

108.9945117

0.99451171

110.740169

2.74016904

108.713618

0.71362

1997-08

108.2

109.1483579

0.94835787

110.8313652

2.63136517

108.9254968

0.72550

1997-09

108.1

108.8669991

0.76699905

110.7920632

2.69206325

108.0199474

0.08005

1997-10

108.3

109.129962

0.82996201

110.9866807

2.68668074

108.4224575

0.12246

1997-11

108

109.4262583

1.42625831

111.2146316

3.21463156

108.8380218

0.83802

55

1997-12

107.9

109.4262583

1.52625831

111.1462861

3.24628608

108.890609

0.99061

1998-01

108.4

109.7966287

1.39662868

111.448311

3.04831098

109.3807853

0.98079

1998-02

108.7

110.2151472

1.51514720

111.798484

3.09848402

109.9130858

1.21309

1998-03

108.8

110.6410731

1.84107312

112.1560645

3.35606447

110.480679

1.68068

1998-04

108.5

110.7373694

2.23736942

112.1840153

3.68401530

110.6439921

2.14399

1998-05

108.9

111.2609964

2.36099636

112.3288944

3.42889440

111.5908329

2.69083

1998-06

108.8

111.5956117

2.79561174

112.5894689

3.78946885

112.0969622

3.29696

1998-07

109

111.9340733

2.93407328

112.8538895

3.85388946

112.5584552

3.55846

1998-08

108.9

112.0879194

3.18791944

112.9336947

4.03369468

112.7778275

3.87783

1998-09

109

111.8065606

2.80656062

112.8830018

3.88300184

111.8402518

2.84025

1998-10

109.4

112.0695236

2.66952358

113.0662284

3.66622842

112.2569973

2.85700

1998-11

109.3

112.3658199

3.06581988

113.2827883

3.98278833

112.6872587

3.38726

1998-12

108.9

112.3658199

3.46581988

113.2030519

4.30305194

112.7417058

3.84171

1999-01

109.3

112.7361903

3.43619025

113.4936859

4.19368593

113.2492179

3.94922

1999-02

109.4

113.1547088

3.75470877

113.8324681

4.43246806

113.8003442

4.40034

1999-03

110

113.5806347

3.58063469

114.1786576

4.17865760

114.3880113

4.38801

1999-04

110.6

113.676931

3.07693099

114.1952175

3.59521751

114.5571002

3.95710

1999-05

110.9

114.2005579

3.30055793

114.3287057

3.42870569

115.5374275

4.63743

1999-06

110.9

114.5351733

3.63517331

114.5778892

3.67788924

116.0614569

5.16146

1999-07

111.2

114.8736349

3.67363485

114.8309189

3.63091893

116.5392714

5.33927

1999-08

111.6

115.027481

3.42748101

114.8993332

3.29933324

116.7664022

5.16640

1999-09

111.8

114.7461222

2.94612219

114.8372495

3.03724949

115.7956676

3.99567

1999-10

111.9

115.0090852

3.10908515

115.0090852

3.10908515

116.2271519

4.32715

1999-11

111.8

115.3053814

3.50538145

115.2142542

3.41425415

116.6726303

4.87263

1999-12

112.1

115.3053814

3.20538145

115.1231269

3.02312685

116.729003

4.62900

2000-01

111.9

115.6757518

3.77575182

115.4023699

3.50236992

117.2544641

5.35446

2000-02

112.8

116.0942703

3.29427034

115.7297611

2.92976114

117.8250818

5.02508

2000-03

113.7

116.5201963

2.82019626

116.0645598

2.36455977

118.4335328

4.73353

2000-04

113

116.6164926

3.61649256

116.0697288

3.06972877

118.6086018

5.60860

2000-05

113.7

117.1401195

3.44011950

116.191826

2.49182604

119.6236

5.92360

2000-06

114.5

117.4747349

2.97473488

116.4296187

1.92961867

120.1661626

5.66616

2000-07

114.7

117.8131964

3.11319642

116.6712575

1.97125745

120.6608758

5.96088

2000-08

114.4

117.9670426

3.56704258

116.7282809

2.32828085

120.8960394

6.49604

2000-09

114.9

117.6856838

2.78568376

116.6548062

1.75480619

119.8909732

4.99097

2000-10

115.2

117.9486467

2.74864672

116.8152509

1.61525094

120.3377177

5.13772

2000-11

115.9

118.244943

2.34494302

117.009029

1.10902902

120.7989511

4.89895

2000-12

116

118.244943

2.24494302

116.9065108

0.90651081

120.8573175

4.85732

2001-01

115.9

118.6153134

2.71531339

117.174363

1.27436297

121.4013625

5.50136

2001-02

116.6

119.0338319

2.43383191

117.4903633

0.89036328

121.9921611

5.39216

2001-03

117.3

119.4597578

2.15975783

117.813771

0.51377099

122.6221309

5.32213

2001-04

117.9

119.5560541

1.65605413

117.8075491

0.09245092

122.8033915

4.90339

2001-05

118.5

120.0796811

1.57968107

117.9182554

0.58174456

123.8542868

5.35429

2001-06

118.5

120.4142965

1.91429645

118.1446572

0.35534284

124.416038

5.91604

2001-07

118.3

120.752758

2.45275799

118.374905

0.07490503

124.9282475

6.62825

2001-08

118.3

120.9066041

2.60660415

118.4205375

0.12053751

125.1717281

6.87173

2001-09

118.5

120.6252453

2.12524533

118.3356719

0.16432806

124.1311161

5.63112

2001-10

118.2

120.8882083

2.68820829

118.4847258

0.28472578

124.5936604

6.39366

56

2001-11

117.3

121.1845046

3.88450459

118.6671129

1.36711295

125.0712062

7.77121

2001-12

117.3

121.1845046

3.88450459

118.5532038

1.25320382

125.1316368

7.83164

2002-01

117.3

121.554875

4.25487496

118.8096651

1.50966507

125.6949228

8.39492

2002-02

118.2

121.9733935

3.77339348

119.1142745

0.91427447

126.3066159

8.10662

2002-03

119.5

122.3993194

2.89931940

119.4262913

0.07370873

126.9588657

7.45887

2002-04

119.5

122.4956157

2.99561570

119.4086784

0.09132156

127.1465369

7.64654

2002-05

119.5

123.0192426

3.51924264

119.5079939

0.00799389

128.2345988

8.73460

2002-06

119.9

123.353858

3.45385802

119.7230047

0.17699530

128.8162173

8.91622

2002-07

120.8

123.6923196

2.89231956

119.9418617

0.85813835

129.346542

8.54654

2002-08

121.7

123.8461657

2.14616572

119.9761032

1.72389677

129.5986337

7.89863

2002-09

121.2

123.5648069

2.36480690

119.8798467

1.32015326

128.5212186

7.32122

2002-10

121.5

123.8277699

2.32776986

120.0175097

1.48249034

129.0001216

7.50012

2002-11

121.8

124.1240662

2.32406616

120.1885059

1.61149408

129.4945566

7.69456

2002-12

120.6

124.1240662

3.52406616

120.0632059

0.53679411

129.5571244

8.95712

2003-01

122.4

124.4944365

2.09443653

120.3082762

2.09172378

130.140332

7.74033

2003-02

123.4

124.912955

1.51295505

120.6014947

2.79850530

130.7736586

7.37366

2003-03

123.5

125.338881

1.83888097

120.9021206

2.59787941

131.4489763

7.94898

2003-04

122.3

125.4351773

3.13517727

120.8731169

1.42688315

131.6432848

9.34328

2003-05

122.7

125.9588042

3.25880421

120.9610414

1.73895861

132.7698279

10.06983

2003-06

122.9

126.2934196

3.39341959

121.1646613

1.73533872

133.3720162

10.47202

2003-07

123.1

126.6318811

3.53188113

121.3721273

1.72787267

133.9210967

10.82110

2003-08

123.8

126.7857273

2.98572729

121.394978

2.40502201

134.182104

10.38210

2003-09

123.9

126.5043685

2.60436847

121.2873306

2.61266941

133.0665844

9.16658

2003-10

123.6

126.7673314

3.16733143

121.4136026

2.18639740

133.5624246

9.96242

2003-11

123.9

127.0636277

3.16362773

121.573208

2.32679205

134.0743461

10.17435

2003-12

124.2

127.0636277

2.86362773

121.436517

2.76348300

134.1391267

9.93913

2004-01

124.2

127.4339981

3.23399810

121.6701964

2.52980358

134.7429604

10.54296

2004-02

124.4

127.8525166

3.45251662

121.952024

2.44797601

135.3986857

10.99869

2004-03

124.9

128.2784425

3.37844255

122.241259

2.65874103

136.0978871

11.19789

2004-04

125.1

128.3747388

3.27473884

122.2008643

2.89913568

136.2990676

11.19907

2004-05

126.1

128.8983658

2.79836578

122.2773979

3.82260206

137.4654528

11.36545

2004-06

125.8

129.2329812

3.43298116

122.4696269

3.33037308

138.0889385

12.28894

2004-07

126

129.5714427

3.57144270

122.6657021

3.33429794

138.6574381

12.65744

2004-08

125.7

129.7252889

4.02528886

122.6771618

3.02283819

138.9276764

13.22768

2004-09

125.8

129.44393

3.64393004

122.5581235

3.24187651

137.7727046

11.97270

2004-10

126.2

129.706893

3.50689300

122.6730046

3.52699541

138.2860811

12.08608

2004-11

126.6

130.0031893

3.40318930

122.821219

3.77878097

138.8161074

12.21611

2004-12

126.5

130.0031893

3.50318930

122.6731372

3.82686283

138.8831792

12.38318

2005-01

126.2

130.3735597

4.17355967

122.8954257

3.30457432

139.5083684

13.30837

2005-02

127.1

130.7920782

3.69207819

123.1658623

3.93413767

140.1872845

13.08728

2005-03

127.8

131.2180041

3.41800412

123.4437064

4.35629360

140.9112143

13.11121

2005-04

128

131.3143004

3.31430041

123.3919208

4.60807917

141.1195099

13.11951

2005-05

128

131.837939

3.83793900

123.93039

4.06961000

142.3134473

14.31345

2005-06

128.2

132.1725545

3.97255450

124.114198

4.08580200

142.9588748

14.75887

2005-07

128.4

132.511016

4.11101600

124.301846

4.09815400

143.5473578

15.14736

2005-08

129.1

132.6648615

3.56486150

124.304904

4.79509600

142.217987

13.11799

2005-09

130

132.383503

2.38350300

124.177462

5.82253800

142.631303

12.63130

57

2005-10

129.4

132.6464665

3.24646650

124.28395

5.11605000

143.1627364

13.76274

2005-11

129.1

132.942763

3.84276300

124.423788

4.67621200

143.7113825

14.61138

2005-12

129.2

132.9427625

3.74276250

124.267326

4.93267400

144.1281739

14.92817

2006-01

130

133.313133

3.31313300

124.481254

5.51874600

144.4279836

14.42798

2006-02

129.6

133.7316515

4.13165150

124.743332

4.85666800

145.1308864

15.53089

2006-03

130.7

134.157578

3.45757800

125.01284

5.68716000

145.8802384

15.18024

2006-04

131

134.2538735

3.25387350

124.952718

6.04728200

146.0958627

15.09586

2006-05

131.6

134.777501

3.17750100

125.009526

6.59047400

147.3460645

15.74606

2006-06

131.3

135.1121165

3.81211650

125.182054

6.11794600

148.0143162

16.71432

2006-07

130.9

135.450578

4.55057800

125.358422

5.54157800

148.6236096

17.72361

2006-08

131.1

135.6044235

4.50442350

125.3502

5.74980000

148.9132617

17.81326

2006-09

130.3

135.323065

5.02306500

125.211478

5.08852200

147.6751605

17.37516

2006-10

130.2

135.5860285

5.38602850

125.306686

4.89331400

148.2253869

18.02539

2006-11

130.5

135.882325

5.38232500

125.435244

5.06475600

148.7934347

18.29343

2006-12

130.6

135.8823245

5.28232450

125.267502

5.33249800

148.8653193

18.26532

2007-01

130.4

136.252695

5.85269500

125.47015

4.92985000

149.535377

19.13538

2007-02

131.7

136.6712135

4.97121350

125.720948

5.97905200

150.2631364

18.56314

2007-03

133

137.09714

4.09714000

125.979176

7.02082400

151.0389877

18.03899

133.4

137.039576

3.63957600

125.917774

7.48222600

151.2622371

17.86224

2007-04

In sample
MAD
Out of
sample
MAD

3.42539926

1.81235348

6.08940

4.10571202

5.39570133

16.12761

The MAD results are not as clear cut as in the previous series. In this case the quadratic model has the
lowest in sample MAD and thus the best fit with the data with the linear model being the second best fit.
However the out of sample MADs show that the linear model better is a better forecasting model as its out
of sample MAD is lower than the quadratic MAD. The regression analysis data such as the multiple R, R
squared and adjusted R square is higher for the quadratic model suggesting it is the better fit. The
exponential model is in this case the worst model as it has very high in and out of sample MADs. Overall
the graphs below support these conclusions as in the in sample graph the actual data line trends closer to
the quadratic than to the linear model while the out of sample graph has the linear model having a
marginally higher convergence than the quadratic model.
Linear formula:
Yi = 0.2449635xi + 52.965105M1 + 53.13866M2 + 53.319623M3 + 53.170955M4 + 53.449619M5 +
53.539271M6 + 53.632769M7 + 53.541651M8 + 53.015329M9 + 53.033329M10 + 53.084662M11 +
52.839698M12

58

1978-09
1979-06
1980-03
1980-12
1981-09
1982-06
1983-03
1983-12
1984-09
1985-06
1986-03
1986-12
1987-09
1988-06
1989-03
1989-12
1990-09
1991-06
1992-03
1992-12
1993-09
1994-06
1995-03
1995-12
1996-09
1997-06
1998-03
1998-12
1999-09
2000-06
2001-03
2001-12
2002-09
2003-06
2004-03
2004-12

CPI

Monthly CPI vs time (in-sample data)

Actual
Predicted-Lin
Predicted Quad
Predicted-Exp

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

Month

59

CPI vs time(out of sample data)

Actual

Predicted-Lin

Predicted-Quad

Predicted-Exp

160

150

CPI

140

130

120

110

100

Month

60