(

) ()
( ) () () )

( )

() ()


() ( )

()



Basic Probability Concepts:
The complement of an event A is the collection of all outcomes that are not
contained in event A. It is denoted by A
c
.

IF YOURE TRYING TO FIND PROBABILITY THAT A OR B WILL HAPPEN:
(prob that (prob (prob (prob of A
a or b will of A) of B) and B)
happen)
Number equivalent of this: VERY IMPORTANTEEEE!!!!

BAYES RULE: Probability that A occurs given that B occurred
()
()()
()
This formula states that (probability of A
given B) is equal to probability that B will happen assuming A happened *
probability that A will happen all divided by the probability that B occurred
CAN ALSO BE: ()
()
()
good for 2 x 3 matrix table problem

X Choose Y (ie chance of getting 3 full time professors problem..)

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation (summations are integrals!!)
Mean: Variance: (note )
Standard Deviation is the sqrt(variance)

V(X) can also be () (

) ()

Probability Mass Function
( ) ()
Which is the probabilities associated with possible values of X


( ) ( )

Quartiles: The p
th
percentile of a random variable X is the value xp
such that p% of the values of X are below it. That is,
()

Basically integrate the function and solve for Xp

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PROBLEMS:
You may be given a probability density function (one variable) and asked to find
the probability and cumulative probability distribution function F(x)

To find probability within a certain interval, integrate ()

For cumulative probability distribution function, integrate same function from 0 to
x (ie ()

You may be also given something with k and asked to work through it.. no sweat!
To find value of k in the function (ie given f(x)=kx for 0<x<k):
Integrate from 0=k and set equal to one to solve for k ()

.
Now that you have k, if they ask you for cum prob dist funct, just integrate from 0
to x as you did before!
JOINT DISTRIBUTION TYPE PROBLEMS
First, if asked to solve for marginal probability density for X and Y

()
() ( )

and
()
() ( )


Then, to find the probability that ie x is in a range AND y is in a range:
THEN if youre asked to find probability of X given a value of Y, use:

()

()
where y if the given y value and the denominator is the
marginal equation found above for y with given y plugged in to both numerator
and demonization equations
NOTE that the two variables are independent if ( )

()

()
FINALLY: If you are asked to find covariance (ie COV(XY))
() () () () where E(XY) is the double
integral over the defined ranges (ie a<x<b and c<y<d) multiplied by x and y
inside! and E(X) and E(Y) are per equations earlier where f(x) should be
replaced by the marginal equations for each with dx and dy E(X) and E(Y)
respectively

COUNTING CONCEPTS:
If youre given a word or sample of things, how many ways could you
arrange them? Ie say youre given the word engineering . Weve got 3
es, 3 ns, 2 gs, and 2 is. We have 11 total spaces to work with, so
arrangements can be represented as:

=27200
If were told to package 3 es together , we now only have 9 distinct
units, with the 3 es being 1 unit. By counting theory, weve got:

=7560

TRICKY question relating to BAYES
Insurance company lumps the following: Class A 30% of drivers, 0.01
chance of accident, Class B 50% - 0.03, Class C 20% - 0.1
Ie data layout: P(A)=0.3, P(B)=0.5, P(C)=0.2, P(X/A)=0.01, P(X/B)=0.03,
P(X/C)=0.1
a) Find the probability that any random chosen driver has an accident
SOL/ Sum of everything going on here (ps times their accidents)
b) Assuming driver gets into accident, whats the prob that hes A?
SOL/ BAYES: (

)
(

)()
()
where P(X) is what we got in A
c) TRICKY: Given driver NOT in accident, prob that he is NOT A
SOL/ BAYES (

) (

)=1-
(

)()
()
=1-
(

)()
()


Union of 3 Events!! OH BOY
Question may ask something like: 50 total respondents, 30 liked A, 26 liked
B, 18 liked C. 18 liked A and B, 12 liked A and C, and 11 liked B and C. 8
liked A, B, and C.
Make a VENN DIAGRAM like this: Remember, to look at intersections as
part of each hole (ie all start with center likes all number, and then use
take each A and B number and subtract it from there. Then once you
have all intersections, subtract the A, B, etc.. number from its connected
intersections!
() (

) () (

) ()
Tom, Dick, and Harry Problem with car accidents:
Tom drives 0.4, Dick drives 0.3, and Harry drives 0.3. Prob that there is an accident
(overall) is 0.025. Prob that there is an accident GIVEN Tom is driving is 0.03.
a) Find the prob that Tom is driving and there is no accident
HINT: This is ( ) (

) () ( (

) ())
b) Prob that the car has accident GIVEN that Tom is not driving
HINT: this is (

)
Solve for P(A/Tc). In this case, P(X) is the general prob that there is an
accident look at the equation piece by piece.. should make sense.
PROBABILITY MASS FUNCTION QUESTION:
Given P(X=x) =(6-x)/k for x=1,2,3,4,5, =0 otherwise
REMEMBER, if were NOT given a range (ie 0<x<2), we need to use SUMS
a) Find k real easy. Plug in x for each (ie f(X=2)=5/k) for each and SUM
them. The SUM must be equal to 1! Solve for k and BOOYAH
b) Determine the variance. First, solve for E(X), then use the idea of
V(X)=E(X^2)-E(X)^2 to solve it.
IE this is what it looks like: (1)^2*(5/15). Summed and then subtract the
mean value squared (remember mean had 1 x in front of each value
summed up all together)
c) Finally, it asks to find E(2X^2-3X+2). This is just 2E(X^2)-3E(X)+2. P&C!