Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Block
3
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS
UNIT 9
Industry Analysis, Financial Policies and Strategies
05
UNIT 10
Information Asymmetry and the Markets
for Corporate Securities
16
UNIT 11
Managerial Incentives
43
UNIT 12
Decision Support Models
74
Expert Committee
Dr. J. Mahender Reddy
Vice Chancellor
IFHE (Deemed University), Hyderabad
Prof. P. A. Kulkarni
Vice Chancellor
Icfai University, Dehradun
Prof. Y. K. Bhushan
Vice Chancellor
Icfai University, Meghalaya
Dr. O. P. Gupta
Vice Chancellor
Icfai University, Nagaland
Prof. D. S. Rao
Director
IBS Hyderabad
Prof. P. Ramnath
Director
IBS Chennai
Dr. M. Syambabu
Icfai University
Ms. C. Padmavathi
Icfai University
Ms. Sudha
Icfai University
BLOCK 3
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
ANALYSIS
Introduction
9.2
Objectives
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
Summary
9.7
Glossary
9.8
9.9
Suggested Answers
9.10
Terminal Questions
9.1 INTRODUCTION
Keeping in mind the framework within which a firm operates, there are certain factors
that affect a firms profitability and risk, and in turn the financial policies and strategies.
The decisions that are taken in the organization reflect the features and dynamics of the
industry as a whole rather than the company as such. In this unit, dynamics of
Asset-Liquidity, leverage styles, Managerial Agency Cost and strategic points in fixing
managerial compensation, and joint ventures are discussed.
9.2 OBJECTIVES
After going through the unit, you should be able to:
whole in the equilibrium state. Further, it has been seen that if the firms within the
industry operate and compete in a product market, then the very nature of the
equilibrium may be different. This is a clear suggestion of the fact that these standard
predictions lack the well defined empirical content. Thus, it can be safely said that there
is yet much to be seen on how the theoretical concept can explain the limited evidence
on the financial and industrial structure. These evidences may include the correlations
between the profitability of the firm, its physical capital as well as the book value of the
debt. Williams had formulated a model relating to industry equilibrium that takes into
account the agency costs due to both the shareholder management as well as the
shareholder creditor conflict. William had earlier postulated that the equilibrium in an
industry shows the effect of agency cost of managerial discretion on capital investment.
There will always be certain firms that possess the potential to raise external capital so
as to carry on the profitable capital investments, whereas there will also be the existence
of firms which cannot avoid their dissipative perks and so cannot pursuit such ventures.
Thus while, on one hand, the resulting industry will be characterized by the firms that
are large in size, highly levered and capital intensive, as well as having high profitability
on the other hand, there will be firms that are smaller in size, more labor intensive in
nature, relatively unprofitable with almost very less degree of leverage. In the model
propounded by Williams, the following consequences can be observed. The model
states that each of the firms within the industry can produce a homogeneous product
with the help of either of the two available technologies, one being the labor intensive
that involves zero initial investment but carries a higher variable cost of production and
the other being the more capital intensive technology. The capital intensive firm raises
capital by means of selling bonds and stocks in a perfectly competitive capital market.
With the existence of these two critical parameters some of the firms get into the
equilibrium by way of foregoing the investments with their net present values. It is to be
remembered that more and more managers would like their firms to invest, but they are
unable to raise the required capital from outside investors due to their lack of
creditworthiness. Now these foregone investments having positive net present values,
the capital-intensive firms earn positive profits in equilibrium. But on the other hand,
the more labor intensive firms can have negative NPVs after taking into account their
cost of entry. This foregone investment is the result of the competition existing within
the industry and not a case of isolated investment. The capital-intensive firms are
characterized by larger size and less of risk involvement as compared to the labor
intensive investments. At the same time there will always be some optimal debt for the
capital-intensive firms though this level of optimal debt may vary from one firm to the
other. Though it is known that the cost of entry converges to zero, there will be certain
capital-intensive firms that will continue earning extraordinary profits and at the same
time there will be labor intensive firms, which may fail to earn profits and thus make an
exit. Thus it can be said that one can find concentration of firms even with marginally
small cost of entry. The main reason that can be attributed to this is the access to capital,
which is another form of entry barrier.
6
Industry Analysis,
Financial Policies and Strategies
ii.
The asset liquidity limits the optimal debt levels. If the cash flow volatility is held
constant, the cyclical as well as the growth assets have a lower level of debt finance,
following on the same line, the multi decimation firms and the conglomerate firms
have a higher optimal debt level at the same level of cash flow volatility.
iii.
The paper further concludes that the optimal level of debt or rather leverage of
any firm is dependent on the leverage of other firms in the industry within
which it operates. It is to be noted that the industry itself might have an
optimal debt capacity even when the individual firms might not.
iv.
As a result, the asset liquidity and in true the optimal debt levels change over
time.
v.
As per the statistical evidences, there has been a consistent increase in the
leverage of companies during the 80s both by firms involved in corporate control
transactions and by other firms too. The major reason that can be cited for this is
the liquid market for corporate divisions. The liquid market for division was a
result of certain exogenous factors. These factors include antitrust enforcement
and the influx of foreign buyers as well as of an important self reinforcement
component. The positive prediction made on account of liquidity and debt
capacity resulted in the same.
Let us now shift our focus towards the several theoretical and empirical studies that
consider the firms financial decisions as an integral part of its overall competitive
strategy.
LEVERAGE AGGRESSIVENESS VS POSSESSING A LONG PURSE
The theoretical research paper that has come of late focuses on the effect of product
market competition on a firms capital structure.
These research works have thus resulted in two principle hypothesis. The first can be
referred to as leverage aggressiveness hypothesis or strategic commitment, and the
other is the long purse hypothesis, the former was developed by Brander and Lewis
(1986) and Maksimovic (1988). This particular hypothesis postulates that the
component of leverage in a firm helps it in boosting the firms growth
vis--vis to that of its industry competitors. The main reason being, the firm, via its
leverage, goes for aggressive competition in the product markets. This results in the
less aggressiveness of the shares yield in their market. Let us come to the other
hypothesis, better known as long purse hypothesis, developed by Fester (1966), which
states that the firm might deliberately go for low leverage so as to be able to pursuit
major market share by adopting predatory market strategies and thereby put a major
levered rival in the back seat, even to the extent of going bankrupt. Compello, in the
year 2002, comes with another hypothesis that is consistent with both the above stated
strategies. This hypothesis finds consistency with the leverage hypothesis by stating
that the growth of a firm is positively related to its leverage. Further the hypothesis
speaks of a relationship that is consistent only in industries where the leverage varies
widely across the firms. This hypothesis also states that the relationship between the
leverage of the firm and the growth tends to get reversed in times of recession that
speaks of the fact that in difficult times the levered firm may be prone to predatory
market strategies of the less levered rivals. Here, the ten levered rivals refer to those
firms that have long purses.
Self-Assessment Questions 1
a.
b.
Industry Analysis,
Financial Policies and Strategies
Let us consider here the case of a firm A, that is competing with its rivals in an
industry, where the future market demand for the industry output is not certain, now,
say all the firms within the industry produce their initial composite output capacity as
per the current market demand. It may happen later that this market demand fluctuates
in either direction. Now, say the market demand rises, those firms that are in a position
to increase their output quickly will gain the market share, whereas the other firms stand
to lose. On the other hand, if the market demand falls, any firms that have earlier
promised to outsize their output capacity may have to suffer substantial losses and may
even turn out to be a failure. So, in brief, it can be said that the loan commitment allows
a firm to be more flexible in terms of its financials, thus letting it, to compete
strategically in a competitive and uncertain product market.
USING THE DEBT TO PROHIBIT ENTRY
As propounded by Jensen (1993) and supported by Kaplan et al, the leveraged takeovers
and buyouts result in an increased profitability, there are other models that give the
same results even though their profoundness has not considered the element of tax
incentive for debit. Thus it can be said that an incumbent firm may prevent itself an
entry into the industry by the increase in its leverage.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL DECISIONS AND PRODUCTION
AND PRODUCT MARKET DECISIONS
Several research papers have stated that there exists a clear level of interaction between
the firms production and product market decision with that of its financial decisions.
Say for example, many of them have come out with the fact that the firms product
quality, pricing and warranties is depended on the firms risk of bankruptcy. If there is a
substantial bankruptcy for a firm because of increased leverage, it may opt for cutting
costs. This it will do, at the cost of its product quality, as a result its product warranties
may be of little value to its purchasing consumers. If viewed from another angle, the
firm may intentionally increase its leverage, and in turn its bankruptcy risks, and it may
use this as a means of securing concessions from its employees, suppliers or customers.
There has been enough evidence of the existence of the effect of financial decision on
the production and product market decision of a firm. In a particular study mode by
Phillips (1995), the pricing and productions decisions of four industries have been done.
These industries have recently increased their financial leverage to a considerable
degree. In three out of these four industries, it was found that the industry output was
negatively related with the average debit ratio of the industry. Further it was seen that,
with these leverage increasing recaps, the incentives to the managers in order to
maximize shareholders wealth had increased substantially. The firms were found to
increase their profit margins and decrease outputs, which reflected that the increase in
leverage decreased the agency cost and also inefficient investment. At the same time it
was seen that, the firms within each of these industries increased their leverage
simultaneously. Thus it can be safely said that the rival firms operating in a particular
industry should respond as a coherent unit as far as financial decisions are concerned.
This will ultimately result in greater efficiency to the firms.
Industry Analysis,
Financial Policies and Strategies
11
As we were almost close to our discussion on the financial strategies and policies in the
contract of an industry, let us speak about two types of co-operative relationships that
have been quite often seen among two firms in a given industry.
The first being joint venture, and the other being strategic alliance. Both of these
relationships take into account the sharing of some of the resources of both the
interacting firms for a certain temporary span of time. Further, the cohesion is formed so
that both the units can take advantage of competing in a more effective way in the
common industry within which they operate. They can even find solutions to the interfirm contracting problems; go on for reducing the trade risk at key stages of the
industry. They can reap the advantages of developing a new market; start the
distribution network for the new product or service. Ultimately, they can represent a
partial combination of corporate resources. In a way they can be distinguished from a
merger or acquisition, where one finds a complete and permanent combination of the
two firms. The joint ventures in fact involve a more systematically drawn arrangement
that involves the creation of a jointly owned private firm.
Self-Assessment Questions 2
a.
b.
On the other hand, in a strategic alliance there is simply the pooling of specific
resources between the firms. There have been several studies done on this which found
out that the market generally reacts in a positive way to the announcement of a strategic
alliance. Further, it was also seen that with the announcement of horizontal alliances,
there had been greater transfer or pooling of technical knowledge which tends to
produce larger wealth effects than marketing alliances. These results are suggestive of
the fact that alliances add the maximum value by allowing the firms to maintain the
focus of their businessmen by the use of complimentary technical skills of the similar
partner firms.
9.6 SUMMARY
12
Industry Analysis,
Financial Policies and Strategies
Agency theory suggests that firms in an industry shall be grouped into two. One would
consist of large, capital intensive, levered and highly profitable firms and the other
group shall consist of small, labor intensive, less levered and less profitable firms.
As a result of the asset substitution problem associated with debt, the firms would come
under two major segments one would consist of highly levered firms who would
pursue more profitable projects and the other group shall consist of firms with low
leverage and will pursue less risky projects.
An industry may have an optimal debt capacity even though individual firms within the
industry do not. This happens as a result of bankruptcies and liquidations within the
industry, when it is depressed. Hence the assets are sold at fire sale prices. Hence the
future expected cost of financial distress and bankruptcy increases thereby limiting the
composite debt capacity in the industry.
A firms leverage should be set to balance the managerial agency costs (which
decreases as the firms leverage decreases) with the costs associated with competition in
terms of product market strategy (which increases with the firms leverage).
The executive compensation contracts should reflect the firms industry relative
performance as well as absolute performance, depending upon the level of competition
in an industry.
A firm in a competitive industry should maintain excess debt capacity as a matter of
competitive strategy.
Leverage can be used to create a barrier to the entry of rival firms in an industry.
Co-operative relationship among firms, like joint ventures and strategic alliances are
becoming means to compete effectively in an industry.
9.7 GLOSSARY
Absorption is a type of merger that involves fusion of a small company with a large
company. After the merger, the smaller company ceases to exist.
Asset Acquisition involves buying of assets of another company. The assets may be
tangible assets like a manufacturing unit or intangible assets like brands.
Asset Sales involves the sale of tangible or intangible assets of a company to generate
cash.
A Joint Venture involves two companies coming together and forming a new company
whose ownership is shared. Usually MNCs use this strategy to enter into a foreign
market.
A Leveraged Buyout happens when a buyer lacks the requisite cash to finance the
acquisition. The buyer, therefore, borrows money against the target companys assets or
cash flows to fund the acquisition.
William had postulated that the equilibrium in an industry shows the effect of
agency cost of managerial discretion on capital investment. There will always be
certain firms that possess the potential to raise external capital so as to carry on the
profitable capital investments, whereas there will also be the existence of firms
which cannot avoid their dissipative perks and so cannot pursuit such ventures.
b.
Self-Assessment Questions 2
a.
The firms product quality, pricing and warranties is depended on the firms risk of
bankruptcy. If there is a substantial bankruptcy for a firm because of increased
leverage, it may opt for cutting costs. This it will do, at the cost of its product quality,
as a result its product warranties may be of little value to its purchasing consumers.
b.
Joint ventures helps to share some of the resources of both the interacting firms
for a certain temporary span of time. Further, the cohesion is formed so that both
the units can take advantage of competing in a more effective way in the
common industry within which they operate. They can even find solutions to the
inter-firm contracting problems; go on for reducing the trade risk at key stages of
the industry. They can reap the advantages of developing a new market; start the
distribution network for the new product or service.
2.
14
b.
Non-profit businesses
c.
d.
Proprietorships
e.
Limited partnerships.
In terms of increasing risk to the investor, the proper ranking would be _______.
Industry Analysis,
Financial Policies and Strategies
3.
4.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
In terms of decreasing return to the investor, the proper ranking would be _____.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
5.
a.
Conglomerate merger
b.
Cooperative
c.
Joint venture
d.
Vertical merger
e.
Horizontal merger.
Sole proprietor
b.
Stockholder
c.
Shareholder
d.
Limited partner
e.
General partner.
B. Descriptive
1.
2.
3.
How does Joint ventures and strategic alliances reduce the risk?
These questions will help you to understand the unit better. These are for your
practice only.
15
Introduction
10.2
Objectives
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.8
Summary
10.9
Glossary
10.1 INTRODUCTION
Issues relating to information asymmetry have always been an influencing factor in the
firms debt as well as equity markets, its ownership structure, capital structure, and
dividend policies. The information relating to debt equity ratio, financial results,
financial planning etc., show an effect on information asymmetry. Generally the
managers act to maximize their firms share price. However, if there is a difference
between what managers believe their firms shares are worth and the market price of
those shares, then the appropriate goal of the managers needs further elaboration. By the
corporate actions, the quality of trading shares can alter. In this unit, the basic causes of
information asymmetry and the problem of simultaneous information are covered.
10.2 OBJECTIVES
After going through the unit, you should be able to:
are equal to expected share prices at any near-term horizon where the cash flow
implications of the managers actions are not yet fully known to investors. However,
even with the risk aversion and positive discount rates, short-term share prices tend to
be higher when current share prices are higher. Hence, short-term shareholders prefer
that the managers take actions that immediately or shortly signal good information and
conceal bad information about the firms cash flows, even if the manager privately
known that those actions are detrimental to the firms long-term future cash flows.
CONFLICT BETWEEN SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM SHARE PRICE
MAXIMIZATION
The exhibit given on the next page illustrates that managers have a number of
competing pressures that determine how a firms current share price and its intrinsic value
enter the decision criteria. If a manager expects to be a long-term player at the firm and
intends to continue to hold stock and options in the firm, then he or she is likely to want to
maximize the firms intrinsic value. However, most managers are also concerned about
the firms current stock price. The concern for this arises due to several reasons:
Managers may plan to issue additional equity to sell some of their own stock in
the near future.
The ability to attract customers and other outside stakeholders may be related to
outsiders perception of the firms value.
Management
Decisions
Incentive to
Incentive to
increase current
increase the
stock prices
intrinsic value of
the firm
Compensation
considerations
Concern about
short-term
unwanted
long-term
stockholders
takeover bids
stockholders
Figure 1
18
Pressure from
Pressure from
Although managers usually have an incentive to increase the firms current stock price,
the degree to which they are willing to sacrifice intrinsic value varies. Given these
inevitable conflicting incentives, one might best view a managers objective function as
one of maximizing a weighted average of the firms current stock price and intrinsic
value.
Thus, we can now safely summarize that the management incentives are influenced by a
desire to increase both the firms current share price and its intrinsic value. The weight
that managers place on these potentially conflicting incentives is determined by, among
other things, the managers compensation and the security of the managers job.
Illustration 1
The Trade-off Between Value and Intrinsic Value
John Jones, CEO of Tremont Corporation, has just exercised 10,000 stock options and
now owns 20,000 shares of Tremont stock. He plans to sell 10,000 shares within the
next month and will hold the remaining 10,000 shares indefinitely. Assuming that his
salary is fixed and that Mr. Jones is entrenched in his job and is unconcerned about
outside takeover threats, describe how Joness objective function would weight current
value and intrinsic value.
Jones would weight current value and intrinsic value equally. In other words, he would
be willing to make a decision that reduces Tremonts intrinsic stock price by $1 per
share if it increased its current stock price by more than $1 per share.
If Mr. Jones, was concerned about takeover threats or losing his job for other reasons,
his decision would be further biased towards those choices that enhance the current
value of his firms shares. As we illustrate in the following case, the weight that
managers place on current share prices versus the firms intrinsic value can have an
important effect on the decisions that they make.
The Joint Venture of IBM, Motorola, and Apple Computer
The joint venture between IBM, Motorola, and Apple Computer to collaborate on
personal computers and workstations (the power PC chip) provides an example of how
corporate decisions can provide information that is potentially relevant for pricing a
firms stock. On the announcement of such a venture, analysts and investors attempt to
assess whether the joint venture is a good decision and whether it will be successful. For
example, if they believe the decision is good for IBM, there will be upward pressure on
the price of IBM stock. On the other hand, if they believe it is a bad decision, there will
be downward pressure on the price of IBM stock. In addition, the market reaction to the
announcement will reflect new information about IBM that is signaled indirectly by the
announcement.
This new information may have almost nothing to do with the merits of the particular
transaction. For example, the joint venture could have been viewed as a favorable signal
about IBMs future prospects because it shows that IBM is confident about its ability to
19
Lemmons are in fact referred to those automobiles that face chronic mechanical
problems. At some point of time, the owners of many of these units wish to sell their
units for some reason that the prospective buyer is aware of.
Moral Hazard
It is to be noted here that some of the units in the secondary markets are lemmons,
whereas some are not. Sellers who have lemmons, of course know that they have
lemmons. But their tendency is to speak better about the quality of the lemmons,
because telling the truth about the products condition may limit the proceeds of the sale
and thereby making it difficult to sell the unit. Instead, for the period that is involved in
short selling, the seller of a lemon can put his unit in a condition that imitates the
condition of a better quality unit, and can then claim that the unit is of good quality. As
a result of this, the potential buyers of this unit will not be able to differentiate the good
quality units from the lemmons that are for sale in the secondary market. All the
potential buyers face the hazard that they will unintentionally purchase a lemon rather
than a good quality unit. This is in fact referred to as the moral hazard.
Pooling Equilibrium
If the sellers of the lemmon are successful in initiating the strategy, the equilibrium
price will be the same for all the units. This common price is actually the reflection of
the average quality of all the units in the market, which all the potential buyers are
assumed to be aware of. This, in the finance perspective, is termed as pooling
equilibrium. This is because, all the units in the markets are pooled in order to
determine the common price. This equilibrium is not a stable one. Sellers who know
that they possess units of high quality know that the value of their units is higher than
the current market price. Thus, many of the owners of the non-lemmons units will
withdraw their units from the markets, resulting in the average quality of the lemmons
that are remaining in the markets to fall. If one continues with the assumption that the
potential buyers are always aware of the average quality of the units that are available in
the market, a resulting pooling equilibrium price will emerge that is lower than the
initial price. This process might continue until only the lower quality units of the
lemmons remain in the market.
Adverse Selection
Akerlof has provided further illustration of the lemmon problems, and also discussed
the mechanisms that are used to reduce the problems. He discusses the problems of
adverse selection in health insurance market. As a general case, the health insurers
attempt to estimate, for each individual insurance applicant, the probability that he or
she will file an insurance claim and the insurance premiums are priced accordingly. But
this process is costly and imperfect. This is so because each of the individuals is aware
of his or her own health better than the insurer. Thus one can have the case of
information asymmetry. Eventually, an insurer must offer a common premium to a
specified group of individuals that is reflective of the average health of the individuals
in the group, even though the individuals in the group differ in terms of their health and
thus the probability of the claim. This leads to the inevitable result that those members
22
of the group who are less healthy will be more likely to purchase an insurance policy.
Thus, a policy that is originally priced to reflect the average health of an identified
group will be inadequate to compensate the insurer for the ex post subgroup of
individuals that actually purchase a policy.
Screening
Health insurers attempt to reduce these adverse selection problems by effectively
screening the potential customers to create a more uniform group to which a specific
insurance policy and premium can successfully apply. Akerlof illustrates this screening
effect by referring to the case of group insurance, in which all the employees of a given
organization are offered a common insurance policy and premium. Though, the
individual employees widely vary in terms of their health, and thus the probability of
their claim, the identification of the group represents an effective screening from the
population at large. The insurer also benefits from economies of scale in screening costs
per individual relative to the costs of screening all individual applicants in a population.
Certification, Costly Signaling, Separation Equilibrium
In this research paper, Akerlof also introduces the concept of certification as a means of
mitigating the problems of lemmons. Here his focus is on the jobs market, where he
considers the role of education as a means by which the prospective employees can
certify their qualifications, and thereby separate themselves from other prospective
employees who are less qualified.
Reputation
The author also stresses on the importance of reputation as a means of reducing the
problems with lemmons. Here, he uses the credit markets to illustrate his argument. He
puts forth the argument that potential borrowers sometimes can be effectively screened
by examining their past repayments, records or reputation.
Contract Enforcement
Lenders can take action ex post in order to attempt to enforce repayment from a default.
It is to be remembered that the effectiveness of the contract enforcement mechanism
depends largely on the following factors:
Specifications in the loan contract that allows the lender to take enforcement
actions.
Ability of the lender to monitor the borrowers behavior, especially to the use of
borrowed funds.
The effectiveness of the legal system to which the lender appeals to enforce
repayment in the event of default.
23
Guarantees
The final discussion of Akerlof centers around the importance of the role of guarantees
in the lemmons problems. Here he refers to a market for goods that is potentially dealt
with variations in quality that are unnoticed by consumers. Those firms that produce a
particular type of high quality product finds an incentive to provide a costly signal of
the quality of the product that becomes an impossibility for other firms to initiate. The
cost incurred in imitating the product is higher for the producers of the low quality
products.
JOB MARKET SIGNALING SPENCE (1973)
An extension of Akerlofs theoretical analysis of problems relating to information
asymmetry can be seen in the study conducted by Spence (1973). He introduced the
concepts of information transfer mechanisms which lead to information equilibria.
Spences labor market model can be summarized in the following way. Say in the
process of evaluating a job applicant, an employer has access to a couple of observable
attributes, one being unalterable attributes such as age, race and sex, and the other being
signals, which may be altered by the applicant. The influencing power of the signal
depends critically on two closely related conditions:
Spence describes the concept of separating equilibrium as one of the costly signals of
the job market in education. An equilibrium can be explained from the viewpoint of a
feedback loop in which the expectations of the employers lead to offered wages at
various levels of education, which in turn lead to investment in education by
individuals. His equilibrium structure includes those feedbacks that the employers
receive after hiring the employees over time. It is only after hiring that the revised
expectation in the minds of the employer creeps in and the cycle starts once again.
competitors of the firm can opt for purchasing the firms shares and thus become its
shareholders. In doing so, they may gain access to this strategic information. So one can
safely say that the management will be unwilling to provide strategic information to the
creditors of the firm, at least to that extent that the debt is publicly traded. For all these
reasons, the management of the firm is better equipped with information relating to the
operation of the firm, also about the true value of the firms share.
VALUATION OF PUBLICLY TRADED EQUITY UNDER ASYMMETRIC
INFORMATION
As it has been stated earlier, the market value of a publicly traded firm may not reflect
its true value because it may not reflect the information that is known only to the
insiders of the firm. The market value can reflect its true value only in conditions when
the firm can successfully signal its true value. Thus a number of outcomes can be seen
due to the difference existing between the two values.
The following table illustrates several possible outcomes of a set of hypothetical firms
named A, B, C, D, & E. The figures in the first column of the table reflect the true value
of each firm. The average value is 300. But in case, the market is unable to differentiate
between the firms, the market values of all five firms will reflect a pooling equilibrium.
In other words, the market values of all the firms will be equal to the average values of
the firm. The equilibrium results in mispricing of four among the five firms.
Firm
True
Value
Pooling Equilibrium
Partially Separating
Equilibrium
Fully
Separating
Equilibrium
500
300
400
500
400
300
400
400
300
300
400
300
200
300
150
200
100
300
150
100
Average
300
300
300
300
b.
Floats,
b.
Turnover, and
c.
Bid-ask spread.
Floats: The term float for a stock is referred to the number of shares that are actively
traded in the exchange. The measure of float is the number of shares outstanding for the
total number of shares held by the insiders and those other investors who are in
possession of at least 5 percent of the outstanding shares. The importance of float lies in
providing the investors enough potential to purchase the firms shares, and also in the
potential interest of the investing community. Added to this, if the insiders or other
investors who are well informed hold a major proportion of a given firms shares, it
26
may be perceived by the investors that they are facing a considerable information
disadvantage in trading the firms shares.
Turnover: The turnover of a stock is defined as the ratio of the number of shares traded
over a specific period of time to the total number of shares outstanding. With all the
discussion made so far, it can be safely said that the presence of information asymmetry
may result in seriously hampering the trading activities. In addition to this, the turnover
of the stock is directly related to the volatility of the stock price of the firm.
Bid-ask spread: The bid-ask spread factor also provides valuable insight to the markets
quality for a given share. The bid price for a stock is the price at which the dealer is
willing
to
purchase
specific
number
of
firms
shares,
and
the
ask-price is the price at which the dealer is willing to sell a specified number of shares.
A dealer makes a market by offering to buy or sell a firms shares at any time.
The difference between the dealers bid and ask price is termed as spread. The bid-ask
spread is generally expressed as a percentage of stock price. The stocks bid-ask spread
exerts a great deal of influence on the quality of the market for stocks. The spread is in
fact one of the integral components of the overall cost of trading a stock. The other two
being, the brokerage commissions and the price impact. The price impact is the
behavior of the investors trading activity to the price of the stock.
Say for example, a purchase of stock raises the price and the selling activities pulls
down its values. Another reason for the bid-ask spread to influence the markets quality
for a stock is that the bid-ask spread consists of three components. All of these represent
the costs that are incurred by the dealer, and later on they are passed on to the trader
through the medium of spread. These three costs are:
In the context of theoretical models, there are two distinct types of investors:
a.
Liquidity traders.
b.
Informed traders.
The former type of trader carries on the buying and selling activities to adjust the
composition of their portfolios. The latter type takes advantage of the private
information that they possess which others are not aware of and trades their stocks on
their basis. But, in reality the dealer cannot differentiate between the two kinds of
traders. Thus, the dealer has to set the spread in such a way so that he can at least, offset
his losses incurred while trading with the informed traders and with the profits made in
trading with the liquidity traders. Things might turn out to be problematic in case the
informed traders are more frequent. In such situation, the dealer must set a relatively
widespread. In case where a dealer may not be able to set a spread that results in an
unexpected profit, the market for the stock may fail.
27
In cases of external financing, managers always prefer to issue the least risky of
all the securities.
The securities can be listed in order of increasing riskiness; it ranges from straight debts
to common stocks. The pecking order of corporate financing ranges from internal equity
to common stock. In a later article, Myers and Majluf (1984) formulated the above
stated findings into a theoretical model and tried to correlate the same with information
asymmetry. Their theory states that the market is chronically underinformed about the
relative values of various projects that the firms bring to the market, and as a result the
market tends to undervalue these projects. This in turn undervalues the securities that
are issued to finance them. This results in some sort of pooling equilibrium so that on an
average, the uninformed investors tend to break even on the securities they purchase.
This in turn puts the managers in such conditions that they find the effective cost of
external financing higher than it should be. This is mainly due to the fact that the firm
tends to give up a major portion of the firms NPV to the investors who purchase the
issued securities. This surrender in the value to the new investors can be particularly
28
detrimental if the firm issues equity stock, this is so because the difference between the
valuation of the firm by its management and the market is fully reflected in the price
that the market is willing to pay for the issued security. In extreme cases, the manager
may even go in for rejecting a profitable project if it is to be financed with external
equity, because the surrender costs more than the NPV of the project. Issuing debt may
also be a matter of concern. But it is to be remembered that debt enjoys a priority, and
so the difference that exists in the valuation is also to a smaller extent. Thus if external
financing is to be considered, debt is to be preferred to equity. Well one of the ways to
avoid the surrender in values is to avoid the external financing, in other words to go for
internal financing. So in order to be in a position that can enable a firm to carry out any
project without the aid of external financing, firms tend to maintain financial slack.
This includes the cash and marketable securities in a broader sense, the unused debt
capacity.
Well there is also an exception to the above condition. In case, where the management
believes that their firm is overvalued mainly due to the possession of inside information.
In such a case the management is motivated by the issue of external equity. But the
market is fully aware of this adverse selection problem and thus ultimately the stocks
price, instead of rising, falls.
DIVIDEND POLICY
In this study, Bhattacharya developed one of the pioneering models that employs
dividends as a signal of managements private information about the future cash flows
of the firm. The model incorporates certain intuitive factors. It says that there exists two
kinds of firms good and bad, where the expected net cash flow is higher for a
good firm than for a bad firm. Though the managers are aware of the expected net cash
flow of their own firm, it is not possible for the markets to distinguish between a good
firm and a bad one. Further, the model also takes into consideration the following
assumptions:
The cost of external financing is more than the cost of internal financing.
The firms will always pay the dividends they have promised to the full.
A positive correlation exists between the firms managers individual wealth and
the stock price of the firm.
Keeping in mind these considerations, Bhattacharya (1979) has shown that, it is only the
managers of good firms who pay out the promised dividends, and their amount of
dividend will be just sufficient enough to deter the manager of the bad firm from paying
or initiating dividends. The major finding of the model is that, while the advantage of
paying dividends is the same for each firm, the cost of doing so is higher for the bad
firm. In other words, one can say that bad firms have greater chance of not possessing
enough cash so as to pay the promised dividend and as a consequence a greater chance
of heeding costlier external financing to protect this shortfall. As a result of this, a bad
29
firm is unwilling to promise a dividend because of which the market is able to make out
the true value of the firm from its dividend policy, and so we have a separating
equilibrium.
The Signaling Power of Cash Payouts
In the signaling model developed by Miller and Rock (1985), the cash payouts that
include the dividends, share repurchases, or debt retirements, serve the similar roles as
powerful signals on the earning capacity of the firm and thus its value. Any such cash
payout reveals that the firm is generating and also has a strong potential in generating
high level of net cash flows. On the other hand, the issue of securities, particularly the
equity securities, reflects negative information about the ability of the firm to generate
earnings.
Principal-Agent Problem
Much of the research papers have dealt with the management shareholder or the
shareholder-creditor conflicts in separation. Few have actually tried to address these
issues together. This is understandable to a certain extent, because these issues involve
so many complexities that examining them simultaneously becomes a Herculean task.
But, in essence, these problems in general cannot be separated. In certain contexts of
information asymmetry, the firms management enjoys both the opportunity as well as
the incentive to show a better picture of their products quality that they develop over
time. As far as the incentives are concerned, the managers may inflate the quality of the
new projects primarily due to a couple of reasons. One may be the fact that the
managers have a tendency of enhancing the quality of the new projects, so as to like the
price of the firms stock. The other reason being, if the compensation of the manager is
the function of the price performance of its stock, he may be having a self serving
incentive to type the firms stock price, especially in the short-term.
Noe and Rebellos (1996) theoretical model simultaneously discusses the effects of
asymmetric information and managerial self interest on the financing and dividend
policies of a firm. Let us take the case where the firm is looking for an investment
opportunity, the details of which are known only to the managers of the firm, and the
insider shareholders. The budget constraints of the firm are such that if it goes on
paying more dividends, then it has to resort to external financing. So, this brings us to
two important questions:
When the requirement of external financing arises, should the firm issue debt or
equity?
The shareholders can limit the ability of the management to pursue their self interest by
putting a restriction on the free cash flow available to them. Thus, one can safely say that
dividends help in reducing the agency costs of managerial discretion by ejecting the excess
cash. One can also say that dividends may be necessary as a signal of value in an asymmetric
information world. But also on the other hand, more dividends tend to increase the need for
30
external financing, and given the conditions of adverse selection, this tends to be costlier.
With regard to external financing, the manager tries to minimize the component of debt, but
at the same time the cost of the adverse selection that is associated with the equity financing
may lead on to increase the reliance upon more debt funds.
AGENCY COST OF DEBT
Harris and Ravice (1990) formulated a theoretical model of optimal structure.
The model is based on the setting where the debt component serves as a means to
provide investors with information about the firm, and also as a device to restrict the
managements engagement is self serving activities. They say that the mere ability of
the firm to make its contractual payments to its debt holders provides information,
and in times of default the management must placate the creditors to avoid
liquidation. This can be done either through informal negotiations or through the
formal bankruptcy proceedings.
ADVERSE INCENTIVES, AND CREDIT RATIONING
There are many firms that obtain private debt financing from commercial banks.
In dealing with a corporate borrower, the banks may often limit the amount of debt
financing that they will provide. If one thinks from an economics standpoint, it is
surprising why the banks ration their credits instead of simply raising the interest rates,
by offering a schedule that involves higher interest rates. Well some researchers suggest
that banks activity of rationing the credit among their pool of borrowers instead of
varying interest rate is because the latter policy has certain interest problems.
INFORMATION ASYMMETRY AND THE LIMITATIONS ON THE MARKET
EFFICIENCY
As it has been repeatedly discussed in various sections, there is an existence of
information asymmetry between the management of the firm and the outside investors.
When such a situation arises the outside investors find themselves at an information
disadvantage as they try hard in order to determine the true and fair value of the firm.
Well under such conditions, how can one expect the market to remain efficient? Let us
now probe into this matter and try to find some suitable answers.
Well, it is a known fact that the scope of the problems related to information asymmetry
is limited. The reason being the investors of the firm does not have any reliable
information about the workings of the firm and as a result its value. As far as the US
market is concerned, the regulations imposed by the Securities and Exchange
Commission make it a compulsion for the firms to disclose its information for the
interest of the shareholders. Similar is the case with the Indian counterpart where the
Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) lays down similar guidelines for the
disclosure of information by the firms. This helps in reducing the problems of
information asymmetry to certain extent thus making the market price of the firms
securities somewhat efficient. Though the information is limited, the investors can
augment their information by engaging a security analyst. One can safely say that the
31
price of a security will be fair only if the market is efficient. The process of gathering
and processing information is a costly affair. At the same time, trading of securities is
also by no means cheap. The benefit that the investor may reap by engaging a security
analyst is being able to differentiate the properly priced securities from the mispriced
ones. But if the market is already efficient with respect to the gathered information, the
investors would not find any incentive to engage an analyst to determine the markets
efficiency. At the same time one can argue that how can the market be efficient if no
such information is gathered? This is termed as the paradox of market efficiency
(Grossman and Stiglitz).
Several studies and empirical evidences have suggested that the markets cannot be truly
efficient. Rather, the price of the securities always tends to oscillate from their true
values. Such deviations provide the analysts with an added energy to carry on their
analysis and to keep the prices of the securities close to their fair price. Thus it is
important to judge the efficiency of the market on a scale, which ranges from small to
larger deviations. At the same time it is also to be remembered that market for the
security analysts is itself a very competitive one. The price value deviations will always
be very small and only the superior analysts will be able to realize the profits arising
from such deviations.
There are certain factors that determine the efficiency of the securities market. Some of
these factors are:
a.
b.
c.
Efficiency of the market also depends on the trading costs, that include commissions
and the bid-ask spread. Finally one can conclude that in order to determine the minute
and fleeting deviations in the true value of the stock price, a trader must be equipped
with efficient technologies for both information processing as well as trading.
INFORMATION CONTENT OF THE DEBT-EQUITY CHOICE
Let us now discuss the type of information conveyed to investors by a firms
debt-equity choice. The debt-equity choice conveys information to investors for two
reasons. First, because of financial distress costs, managers will avoid increasing a
firms leverage ratio if they have information indicating that the firm could have future
financial difficulties. Hence, a debt issue can be viewed as a signal that managers are
confident about the firms ability to repay the debt. The second reason has to do with
the reluctance of managers to issue what they believe are underpriced shares. Hence, an
equity issue might be viewed as a signal that the firms shares are not underpriced and
therefore may be overpriced.
32
b.
(1)
Where,
Ri,t and Rm,t are the day t returns on stock I, and
the market portfolio respectively,
i and i are the intercept and slope coefficients of the regression for stock I,
respectively, and i, t is the regression residual.
The market model provides a more sensitive adjustment of the return on a stock for
contemporaneous market returns for two reasons. First, the intercept of the regression,
i, captures the average return on stock i given that the market return is zero. Second,
the term i Rm, t captures the sensitivity of returns on stock i to contemporaneous market
returns.
The regression residual, i, t, captures the deviation of the return on stock i on day t from
its normal relationship to the market, and is therefore called stock is abnormal return on
day t. In an event study, we focus on the abnormal return on a stock because, according
to theory, it captures the effect of new firm-specific information on the stocks price.
To estimate regression equation 1, researchers typically use daily returns on the stock
and the market over a period of time that excludes the focal event period, obtaining
estimates of the intercept and slope coefficients, denoted as i and i. With these
estimates,
the
researcher
then
calculates
the
abnormal
return
on
stock
i on the event date, designed as day 0. The event-day abnormal return, denoted as i,0, is
calculated using Equation 2:
i, 0 = Ri, 0 ( i + I Rm, 0)
(2)
Pursuing again the case of Sears 1994 dividend announcement, we estimated regression
Equation 1 using percentage daily returns on Sears stock and the S&P 500 index for
two calendar years prior to the announcement (i.e., 1982 to 1983). The results were:
RSears,t = 0.12% + 1.46RS&P,t+ Sears,t
34
The t-statistics for the intercept and slope coefficients were 1.91 and 23.73, respectively,
and the adjusted R2 was 52.7 percent. We then inserted the estimates of the values for
the intercept and slope coefficients into Equation 2 to obtain Sears abnormal return on
the dividend announcement date:
Sears0 = 0.35% {0.12% + 1.46 (0.85%) = 1.47%.
Step 2: Washing Out the Effects of Other Information Released
Simultaneously
The purpose of the second step in event study methodology is to wash out the valuation
effects of other firm-specific factors that may have affected a stocks price on the event
day to isolate the valuation effect of the focal event more precisely. This is done by (a)
collecting a sample of firms, all of which have made a similar type of announcement
(though on different calendar dates), (b) calculating the event-day abnormal return on
each firms stock, and (c) calculating the average:
0 =
1 N
i,0
N i=1
(3)
Where,
N is the number of events in the sample.
The need to average abnormal returns across similar events exposes another limitation
of event study methodology. The methodology cannot be used to accurately gauge the
valuation effect of a single event for a single firm.
Using a Two-Day Event-Period Window: Researchers generally use an event-period
window of two days, rather than one day, to calculate abnormal returns. These two days
include the announcement day and the following trading day. This is done in part
because many announcements are made after the close of trading on the announcement
day, so it is necessary to include the stocks abnormal return on the following trading
day, denoted as day + 1, to adequately capture the markets reaction to the new
information. We denote the two-day abnormal return for firm I as Ri,
(0 + 1).
For an
(4)
Returning to Sears dividend announcement, the returns on Sears stock and the S&P
500 index on day+1 (i.e., February 14, 1984) were 4.23 percent and 1.07 percent,
respectively. Hence, the (compounded) two-day returns were 4.59 percent and 0.20
percent, respectively. To calculate Sears market-model based abnormal return over two
days, we must double the intercept of the estimated market model regression, because
we are working with two-day returns rather than one-day returns. That is, the intercept
must be 0.24 percent rather than 0.12 percent. With this adjustment, the two-day
abnormal return on Sears stock is
Sears (0,+1) = 4.59% [0.24% + 1.46% (0.20%)] = 4.06%
35
Finally, we can calculate the average two-day abnormal return across a sample of firms
(or events) using equation 5:
(0,+1) =
1 N
i(0,+1)
N i=1
(5)
b.
Earnings
c.
d.
e.
f.
Merger activity.
price. However, it is observed that even for the industrial firms the magnitude of the
reported average abnormal returns seem rather small given the importance of the capital
expenditure decisions. So one can say that for some firms that announced an increase in
capital expenditure, the reaction of the market may have been adverse because the
information implies that the management intends to intensify its self serving empire
building. In contrast, some of the firms that announced a reduction in the capital
expenditure, the markets positive reaction might be due to some mechanism that has
been brought to bear in order to discipline the tendency of the management to engage in
empire building. Another explanation may be that the market may have anticipated
much of these informations.
Earnings Announcements: Studies conducted by Joy, Litzenberger and McEnally
(1977) concentrated on the earnings announcement of the firm and its impact on the
value. The earnings announcement was taken to be a quarterly one. Whenever such a
study is conducted, it is important to take into account of the expectation of the market
to the earnings announcement so that later on it is possible to sort out the firms by the
deviation of their actual earnings from the markets expected earnings. While carrying
out their studies, the authors established several alternative methods of earnings
expectations, that includes a nave and no change model that forecasts the earnings by
extrapolating the past earnings trends. Having done this they have sorted the firms into
three categories in accordance with the reaction of the market to the earnings resulting
in a positive surprise or no surprise. The authors have found out that:
a.
b.
Firms that provide earnings close to the expectations realized a small negative
abnormal return of 0.45%.
c.
These results are indicative of the fact that the earnings announcements convey
considerable information to the market. So it is also not surprising that the earnings
expectation and the announcement generate the attention of the financial press to a
considerable extent.
Exchange Offer Announcements: Masulis (1980) has examined the reaction of the
market to the firms announcement of a change in its capital structure. His study
focused on two contradictory capital structure changes. A firm can be viewed as an
exchange of equity for debt that results in the decrease in the leverage of the firm. It can
also be viewed as an exchange of debt for equity which results in the increase in the
leverage. The authors study revealed that the former incident generates a negative
abnormal return of 5.37% on an average. On the other hand, in cases of the latter one
gets a positive abnormal return of 7.63%. Among the several explanations that have
37
been provided for such kind of market behavior, two of them are worth mentioning.
The first says that the increase in leverage increases the tax shield of the firm and thus
increases the value of the firms equity, whereas the leverage decrease results in an
opposite reaction. The second explanation states that an increase in the debt capacity of
the firm through an exchange results in the expropriation of wealth from the existing
creditors, while extinguishing debt accomplishes the opposite.
Announcement of a Seasoned Equity Offering: Masulis and Korwar (1986) examined
the valuation effect of a publicly traded firms announcement of an equity offering,
known as Seasoned Equity Offering (SEO). For the industrial firms they found out that
there was a substantial negative average abnormal return of 3.25%. For the public
utility return firms then was of the magnitude of 0.68%. There have been several
explanations that have been provided for such reactions of the market. One such can be
summarized as follows. Due to the existence of information asymmetry, the
management of the firm has better information about the true value of the firm than the
market. Thus it might sometimes happen that the market price of the firm deviates
substantially from the value of the firm that is assessed by the firms management. If it
is further assumed that the management of the firm acts in the interest of its current
shareholders, the management will find an incentive to issue new shares when the
market price of the shares exceed the value of the shares as assessed by the firm. But
actually, the market becomes aware of the firms tendency to offer new shares when the
management of the firm believes that their shares are overpriced. As a result of which
the market reacts adversely to the announcement of a SEO.
Dividend Announcement: Studies on the reaction of the market to the announcements
regarding changes in the firms dividends were carried on by Pettit (1972). His
hypothesis can be summarized as follows. Firms go for increase in their dividends only
when there is a high degree of certainty that the increase in the dividend would be
supported by the future positive cash flows and firms go for decrease in the dividend
only when they are not sure of positive future cash flows. This is indicative of the fact
that the changes in the dividend announcement reflect the firms assessment over the
future cash flow generation of the firm. The sample of the study composed of the
following structure:
i.
ii.
iii.
38
a.
b.
c.
Thus keeping in mind the earlier hypothesis it is safe to conclude that decisions to the
changes in the dividends convey considerable information to the market.
Merger Announcements: Dodd (1980) studies the effects of valuation of a merger
announcement of the prices of the stocks of both the bidding firm as well as the target
firm. He observed that on an announcement of a merger activity, the bidding firm
experiences
slightly
negative
abnormal
return
of
the
magnitude
of
1.16%, whereas the target firm experiences a substantial positive abnormal return of
13.4% on an average.
10.8 SUMMARY
The problem of information asymmetry pertains to the dilemma that the corporates face
of whether to release information of strategic importance to the investors or not. If it
releases such information, it can be leaked out to the competitors, yet it is difficult to see
securities to ill-informed investors or to procure more funds.
There are various mechanisms used to mitigate this problems. These are: (a) the use of
screening devices, (b) costly signals that are difficult or impossible to mimic, (c) the
sellers reputation, (d) ex post contract enforcement, and (e) guarantees.
Managers can distinguish their firm as a better one by issuing debt.
In general, in the presence of information asymmetry between market and managers,
external financing is costlier than interval financing.
There is a preference structure or the pecking order regaining financing alternatives
when in need of funds, firms must first use retained earnings, debt, external equities in
that order.
Low cost borrowers choose secured debt with a low interest rate. In contrast, riskier
borrowers have a high credit risk, having a higher probability of defaulting and losing
the security, hence choose unsecured loan with high interest rate.
Dividends represent a costly signal of managements strategic information about future
cash flows. Share repurchase and debt retirements can serve as effective signals of the
firms value.
10.9 GLOSSARY
A Float for a stock is referred to the number of shares that are actively traded in the
exchange.
Turnover is the ratio of the number of shares traded over a specific period of time to
the total number of shares outstanding.
Bid price is the price at which the dealer is willing to purchase a specific number of
shares.
Ask-price is the price at which the dealer is willing to sell a specified number of shares.
Dividend is a part of earnings of a firm distributed to shareholders.
39
Aswath Damodaran. Investment Valuation. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002.
Frank C. Evans, and David M. Bishop. Valuation for M&A Building Value in
Private Companies. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2001.
b.
Self-Assessment Questions 2
a.
Bid-ask spread: The bid-ask spread factor also provides valuable insight to the
markets quality for a given share. The bid price for a stock is the price at which
the dealer is willing to purchase a specific number of firms shares, and the
ask-price is the price at which the dealer is willing to sell a specified number of
shares. A dealer makes a market by offering to buy or sell a firms shares at any
time. The difference between the dealers bid and ask price is termed as spread.
The bid-ask spread is generally expressed as a percentage of stock price.
The stocks bid-ask spread exerts a great deal of influence on the quality of the
market for stocks. The spread is in fact one of the integral components of the
overall cost of trading a stock. The other two being, the brokerage commissions
and the price impact. The price impact is the behavior of the investors trading
activity to the price of the stock.
40
b.
The cost of external financing is more than the cost of internal financing.
ii.
The firms will always pay the dividends they have promised to the full.
A positive correlation exists between the firms managers individual wealth and
the stock price of the firm.
2.
3.
b.
c.
That banks wont give depositors all the information about their accounts
d.
e.
b.
c.
d.
e.
4.
a.
b.
Informational asymmetry
c.
Moral hazard
d.
Adverse selection
e.
Market inefficiency.
The problem of managers making huge profits from insider trading would not
exist if there were no _________.
a.
Information asymmetry
b.
Riskless investments
c.
Government regulations
d.
e.
Stock exchanges.
41
5.
Asset base
b.
Market capitalization
c.
Number of employees
d.
Sales
e.
Employee productivity.
B. Descriptive
1.
What are the Conflicts between Short-term and Long-term Share Price
Maximization goals?
2.
What are the factors that contribute to the quality of a trading stock?
3.
These questions will help you to understand the unit better. These are for your
practice only.
42
Introduction
11.2
Objectives
11.3
11.4
11.5
Executive Compensation
11.6
Value-Based Management
11.7
Summary
11.8
Glossary
11.9
11.1 INTRODUCTION
It is very unpleasing for the managers to lay-off its employees; rather, they find it more
rewarding to provide them with better career opportunities. As a matter of fact, many
corporate houses firmly believe that, one of the primary objectives of the concern
should be taking care of their employees and not shareholders wealth maximizing.
There is also another school of thought that holds a more cynical point of view. They
opine that, most managers take advantage of their positions and indulge in actions that
personally benefit them at the cost of the shareholders. Thus, taking into account both
the points of view, the managers sometimes resort to taking investment and financing
strategies that do not direct towards maximizing the value of the firm. The managers of
the firm may take investment and financing decisions in such ways that might reduce
risk and increase the firms growth rate. This is actually done by the managers to
increase their own opportunities as well as those of their employees. As it is known that
the managers and the shareholders do not always have the same level of interest, the
financial decisions can be viewed from a number of perspectives. In this unit, the realworld factors influence on financial policies and factors influencing the managerial
incentives are covered.
11.2 OBJECTIVES
After going through the unit, you should be able to:
Know real-world factors and their potential effects on a firms financial policies;
Managerial Incentives
Fifth, costs of financial distress and bankruptcy, which are basically transaction costs
associated with the presence of debt in a firms capital structure, may inhibit the firms
issuance of debt securities.
VIOLATIONS OF ASSUMPTION 2
All Market Participants Share Homogeneous Expectations
Assumption 2 states that all market participants have the same information regarding
value-relevant information concerning a firm. This assumption disallows several realworld problems that may affect a firms financial decisions and, more fundamentally,
the quality of the market for the firms securities. Chief among these is information
asymmetry between investors and the firms management. Owing to their position as
insiders, a firms management has more information about the value of the firm than
investors. As we will see, this circumstance can affect a firms financial decisions and
market value.
VIOLATIONS OF ASSUMPTION 3
Atomistic Competition
Assumption 3 states that all investors are atomistic; that is, their wealth, or at least the
wealth that they are willing to bring to purchase a given firms securities is small
relative to the total value of given firms securities. Here, two real-world factors that
constitute violations of this assumption are important, first, if an individual investor has
either sufficient wealth or sufficient borrowing capacity to purchase or sell a substantial
proportion of an individual firms securities, the investors trades may affect the market
value of these securities. Consequently, the value of the firms securities, and thus the
firms financial decisions, may reflect the personal preferences and value assessments of
such a dominant investor. Second, the firm itself can issue substantial quantities of
securities, and may have sufficient cash to engage in substantial repurchases of
outstanding securities. Transactions of either type may affect the market value of the
firms securities.
The Shareholder-Management Principal-Agent Problem
On the other hand, the satisfaction of assumption 3 also can be problematic. Closely
related to the concept of atomistic competition is the stipulation that the ownership of a
firms securities is diffused. The problem here is that, if no single investor has a
substantial portion of his or her wealth invested in a given firm, no investor has an
incentive to monitor the firms management to ensure that they are acting in the
shareholders interest.
Under these circumstances, it is difficult to imagine that management would make
decisions that are strictly in the shareholders interest (i.e., in the absence of an effective
incentive device). Instead, managers will tend to manage the firm in a manner that
maximizes their own utility rather than shareholders wealth. We describe this situation
as a principal-agent conflict, where the shareholders are the principals and managers are
the shareholders agents.
In the classic contracting paradigm, an agent is hired by a principal to perform duties
that serve the principals interests. (For example, you are the principal when you hire a
taxicab driver, the agent, to take you to the airport.) The problem is that the agent also
has an incentive to serve his or her own interests, which may conflict with the interests
of the principal. There is the existence of several contracting devices that can be used to
mitigate conflicts of interest between shareholders and managers. One such device is the
45
requirement that managers hold the firms equity shares (or options on the firms
shares) in their personal portfolios. Devices such as this though imperfect, serve to align
the interests of shareholders and management. However, such devices are often costly.
In the present case, depending on the size of managers holding of their firms shares
relative to the aggregate number of shares outstanding, the above requirement may
result in the firms shares being closely held by the firms managers. If so, the
requirement results in a substantial violation of the assumption of atomistic competition.
Moreover, the liquidity of the firms shares may be compromised. In any event, it is
ironic that an assumption of the ideal capital market must be violated to mitigate the
adverse effects of a particular real-world problem!
VIOLATIONS OF ASSUMPTION 4
The Firms Capital Investment Program is Fixed and Known
Relaxing the assumption that the firms capital investment program is fixed engenders a
number of possible interactions between the firms investment and financing decisions.
For example, suppose a firm initially engages a capital investment program that is
financed with both debt and equity. As we will show in this chapter, if the debt is
default-risky, the firms management, acting in the shareholders interest, has an
invention of wealth from the debt holders to the equity shareholders.
Violation of the assumption that all market participants know the details of the firms
capital investment program also presents problems. Theory posits that a firms
management must keep strategic information regarding its operations private (i.e.,
known confidentially by insiders only). As such, we have the information asymmetry
problem noted earlier. Information asymmetry can have a deleterious effect on the
quality of the market for a firms securities. Briefly, one resolution to this problem is for
management to signal the firms value via their willingness to invest a substantial
portion of their personal wealth in the firms shares. By doing so, however, the firms
managers may own a substantial proportion of the firms shares, and therefore would
not be atomistic competitors; so again, we have the ironic situation that an assumption
of the ideal capital market must be violated to resolve a particular real-world problem.
VIOLATIONS OF ASSUMPTION 5
Once Chosen, the Firms Financing is Fixed
Suppose a firm initially finances its assets with specified proportions of debt and equity,
and then later issues additional debt, using the proceeds to pay a dividend to
shareholders. If the new debt has the same priority as the original debt, the value of the
original debt will probably fall, an effect called claim dilution. Moreover, the firms
shareholders have an incentive to take such an action, because shareholders wealth
likely increases by the amount of the original debt holders loss (i.e., the sum of the
dividend and the market value of the remaining equity will be greater than the total
value of the equity prior to the issuance of the new debt). The shareholders will have
thereby expropriated wealth from the original debt holders.
This is an example of the second of the two principal-agent conflicts that we discuss. In
this case, the principals are debt holders and the agents are shareholders. The possibility
that management would take expropriator actions against debt holders on shareholders
behalf has potentially serious consequences for the firms ability to raise funds by
issuing debt securities (i.e., debt versus equity financing of a firm may no longer be a
matter of indifference).
46
Managerial Incentives
Managerial Incentives
compensation for the firms total risk, and as a result the value of each firms shares
would likely be lower (and their cost of equity capital would be higher, which would
limit capital investment).
Governments, which may impose taxes on the firms profits and constraints on
the firms operations (such as operational and product safety regulations);
b.
Creditors, who have a claim on the firms future cash flows and its assets;
c.
The firms general employees, who depend on the firm for their personal
income, and medical and retirement benefits;
d.
The firms suppliers, whose operations and profits are tied to those of the firm;
e.
The firms customers, who purchase and use the products and services that the
firm provides;
f.
Society at large, which may either benefit from, or be harmed by, various
activities of the firm; and Finally managers themselves, who ultimately are
interested in maximizing their own personal utility.
How should the firms management deal with the interest of these extended
stakeholders?
The answer is provided in two parts:
The Firm as a Nexus of Contracts: Management must appreciate the critical role that
each extended stakeholder plays in the firms operations or financing, as the case may
be. However, as all of the extended stakeholders are ultimately pursuing their own
interests, conflicts of interest are bound to occur frequently. Dealing effectively with
these conflicts is one of the most important challenges that managers face. Contracts are
the primary means by which management deals with these conflicts. Indeed, a firm may
be described as a nexus of contracts between the firm and each of its stakeholders
(Jensen and Meckling 1976). Each contract is partially under managements control and
simultaneously constrains management. Moreover, each contract affects the firms risk
and profitability, and thus the market value of the firms equity. After all, equity holders
have a residual claim to the firms future cash flows, where residual means after
contracts with all other stakeholders have been settled.
A Revised Directive: Maximize (E): In the light of the stakeholder view of the
corporation, we might rephrase our question as, Should shareholders adopt the classic
directive, or adopt an alternative directive?
The short answer is that management should be given the following revised directive:
Revised Directive: Maximize the Market Value of the Firms Equity (E):
Management should adhere to this directive even if at times their decisions do not
simultaneously maximize the market value of the firm, and even though it does not
result in the maximization of other stakeholders utilities (even their own). In other
words, this revised directive is a mandate to management to resolve conflicts with other
stakeholders (through contracting) in a manner that is consistent with shareholders
interest, as expressed. After all, shareholders are the principals in their relationship with
management, while managers are the shareholders agents.
50
Managerial Incentives
Given this revised directive, all extended stakeholders must realize that management
will tend to minimize the value of their claims in order to maximize the market value of
the firms equity, E. For instance, the firms employees should understand that
management would tend to provide the lowest possible wages and salaries, subject to
the dictates of a competitive labor market. Likewise, the firms suppliers and customers
should understand that the firm is continuously attempting to maximize profits in its
dealings with them, subject to the competitive dictates of these respective markets.
THREE IMPORTANT EXTENDED STAKEHOLDERS
Working under the revised directive, the firms dealings with three particular groups of
extended stakeholders occupy a disproportionate amount of four attentions in the
corporate finance literature. The first group includes governments. According to the
revised directive, management should take full advantage of all legal means to minimize
the present value of government tax claims against the firm. One such legal means is to
simply take advantage of the deductibility of interest payments on debt by employing
more debt in the firms capital structure. In addition management can choose, or switch
to, a depreciation schedule that is more tax favored.
Creditors constitute a second important group of extended stakeholders, if the firm has
debt outstanding, management, acting in the shareholders interest, has a derived
incentive to take actions to reduce the market value of the debt, if such actions serve
simultaneously to increase the market value of the firms equity. Management would
thereby expropriate wealth from the creditors to the shareholders. We provide examples
of such expropriation later in this chapter.
Creditors protect their interest in the firm by three primary means. First, promised
payments to creditors have a priority status within the law. If the firm fails to make
timely payments of interest and/or principal, creditors can force the firm into
bankruptcy proceedings, wherein they have a priority claim. Second, creditors generally
place various restrictive covenants and other provisions in the debt contract that serve to
protect their interests. Third, creditors can monitor the firms activities for compliance
with stipulations in the debt contract. The third group of extended stakeholders consists
of managers themselves. Managers have a personal interest in controlling the firm in a
manner that serves to maximize their utility rather than shareholders wealth. Such selfserving behavior is obviously costly to shareholders, and these costs are referred as
agency costs of managerial discretion.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MANAGEMENT TO INCREASE THEIR
COMPENSATION
Managers may employ any of several schemes to increase their compensation from the
firm, including those discussed below:
Excessive Consumption of Perquisites
Managers have an incentive to take additional compensation in the form of perquisites.
That is, they can use the firms money to make expenditures that provide them with
personal benefits. For instance, a manager may purchase a Learjet to make his overseas
trips more pleasant, or hold meetings in exotic resort doubling as vacation sports.
Manipulating Earnings and Dividends
Suppose managements annual bonuses are based on the firms performance for the
year, where performance is measured by Return on common Equity (ROE).
51
Management then has an incentive to distort earnings upward to receive a larger bonus.
Alternatively, management may lower (or fail to increase) dividends over time as a
means of retaining more cash within the firm, which they can use to draw additional
compensation.
Maximizing the Size of the Firm, rather than its Value
In the (labor) market for corporate managers, compensation is highly correlated with the
size of the firm. Thus, left unchecked, management has an incentive to maximize the
size of the firm, rather than the market value of the firms equity. They can do this
through excessive internal expansion, acquisitions, or reducing dividends, even if these
actions are not in the shareholders interest. This is known as the over investment
problem. Managers who over invest are said to be engaging in empire building.
Siphoning Corporate Assets
A particularly brazen example of managerial self-interest involves siphoning corporate
assets. For example, a firms executives may establish a separate "shell" firm, which
they own, and then direct cash flow from the focal firm to the shell. This could be done
under the guise of (very favorable) payments for goods or services that the shell firm
provides to the focal firm.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MANAGEMENT TO DECREASE THE RISKINESS OF
THEIR EMPLOYMENT INCOME
It is important to recognize that managers and shareholders are likely to have different
views on the riskiness of the firm. Assuming that shareholders are diversifie their risk
with respect to the firms limited to the stocks systematic risk. In contrast assuming
that the bulk of a managers wealth consists of compensation from the firm that he or
she manages, the manager is exposed to the firms total risk. Therefore, management
may tend to take actions to reduce the firms total risk even if such actions may not be
in the shareholders interest. Management may use any of the following schemes to
decrease the firms risk, and thus the risk of their personal portfolios.
Excessive Diversification
Management may pursue pure conglomerate mergers, which had no value to
shareholders, not only to increase the size of the firm but also to reduce firm-specific
risk (e.g., by diversifying the firms operations across industries, which is of no value to
already diversified shareholders). Reducing the probability of the firms failure reduces
the probability that the manager would be out of a job.
Bias toward Investment with Near-Term Pay-offs
If management compensation is tied to the firms earnings, management has an
incentive to bias their selection of capital investment projects toward investments that
pay-off well in a short period of time, even if these investments may not maximize
shareholder value in the long run. This bias may be particularly severe if top managers
have only a short period of time before they retire.
Underemployment of Debt
Under-employment: Suppose there is a particular optimal (i.e., E maximizing) amount
of leverage that a firm should employ. Management may choose a lower level of
leverage than is optimal in this sense, because the probability of bankruptcy, and thus
the loss of their jobs, increases with leverage.
52
Managerial Incentives
Management Entrenchment
A firms CEO will naturally tend to steer the firm toward investments that reflect his or
her unique talents. Over time, this policy will make it difficult for the shareholders to
remove the CEO even if he is not performing adequately. That is, a CEO has become
entrenched. An alternative ploy is the inclusion of poison pills in the firms charter, in
an executive compensation contract, or in a bond contract. For instance, a poison put
provision in a bond contract makes the firms debt due immediately if the firm is the
target of a successful hostile takeover, after which the firms incumbent management is
fired. The poison pill increases the cash cost, and thus reduces the probability of a
takeover.
Yet another tactic management may use to keep their jobs involves the payment of
greenmail. Suppose an arbitrageur who has substantial capital believes that the
management of a given firm is failing to maximize the market value of the firms
equity, perhaps because management is relatively incompetent or is making self-serving
decisions. In the arbitrageurs opinion, the firms shares are undervalued relative to their
potential under better management. The arbitrageur has an incentive to purchase the
undervalued shares until their accumulated shares, perhaps in combination with those of
other shareholders who have been persuaded by the arbitrageurs argument, is sufficient
to vote out incumbent management. As this process is unfolding, the firms current
management realizes the threat to their positions and may offer to purchase the
arbitrageurs shares, using company funds, at a substantial premium to the current
market price if the arbitrageur promises to cease and desist. Such a payment is called
greenmail.
In a similar vein, a firms management can reduce the risk of losing their positions by
thwarting the attempts of activist investors to purchase the firms shares. Activist
investors purchase the shares of underperforming firms and then attempt to either oust
the firms incumbent management or force reform.
Management can limit the number of activist investors by systematically limiting
activists access to the firms shares. They can do this by any of several means. First,
they could include stock options in their compensation contracts that allow themselves
to purchase a substantial number of the firms shares over time. Second, they could
encourage individual investors with relatively little wealth (who may be more passive
than a wealthy investor, a mutual fund, or a pension fund) to purchase shares. Many
firms have dividend reinvestment plans that allow eligible individual investors to
automatically reinvest their dividends into shares of the firm. Generally, the firm
purchases the requisite shares in the secondary market, but gives the participating
shareholder a discount to the price actually paid, and also waives commission costs.
Third, management could use the firms cash to repurchase shares.
Packing the Board
Management may be able to garner the appointment of individuals to the firms board of
directors who have a favorable bias toward management. This policy is referred to as
packing the board.
REINVESTING THE ISSUE OF SEPARATION OF OWNERSHIP AND
CONTROL
At this point you may be wondering (a) whether agency costs of managerial discretion
are sufficiently large as to exceed the cited benefits of separation of ownership and
53
control, and (b) whether a firm should ever use debt in its capital structure, given that,
(1) debt engenders an additional principal-agent conflict between shareholders and debt
holders, and (2) debt can cause distortions in the firms capital investment program.
These are important issues that we will address in detail in later chapters. Here we will
make only some preliminary comments on both issues.
A Trade-off between Agency Costs of Managerial Discretion and Benefits
of the Separation of Ownership Control
In practice, it is difficult to quantify the benefits of separation of ownership and control
or the agency costs of managerial discretion, so it is difficult to know whether the
benefits exceed the costs. However, it seems likely that, for some firms, agency costs of
managerial discretion can be quite large relative to the benefits of separation. For
instance, in some firms it may be difficult to monitor (a) managements consumptions
of perquisites, (b) managements possible manipulation of earnings and/or dividends to
their own advantage, and (c) the efficacy of managements capital investment program.
For such firms, separation of ownership and control may lead to excessive agency costs
of managerial discretion, and the firm can be viable only if the firms managers are also
its owners, at least to some extent. This may explain why hundreds of successful firms
are privately and/or closely held.
Self-Assessment Questions 1
a.
b.
Define greenmail.
Managerial Incentives
outsiders that engage the outside share holders to vote against the incumbent
shareholders often do not win them in the process. While the aggregate benefits
available to all the shareholders who are involved in the process may be much more
than their costs, the individuals who bear those costs may only receive a fraction of the
total benefits. The remaining shareholders are the free riders. So it can be safely said
that these types of proxy fights are rarely in practice.
IS THE OWNERSHIP ACTUALLY SO DIFFUSED?
For any individual share holder, who wishes to have that number of shares that can give
him considerable control over the companys management will generally have to hold
an undiversified portfolio. The investor would reap the benefits of getting the
management make value maximizing decisions; he, at the same time would have to bear
the costs of holding an undiversified portfolio. So the investors are left with choice
between diversification and control. The undiversified investors, of course, share the
benefits of control along with the other shareholders. But, at the same time, they alone
must bear the cost of holding the undiversified portfolio. The significance of holding an
undiversified portfolio perhaps explains the reason of the investors rarely choosing to
take a position that is large enough to provide them the opportunity to adequately
monitor and even control the management. But this motive for diversification fails to
explain why the institutions do not arise to provide such monitoring services.
MANAGEMENT SHAREHOLDING AND MARKET VALUE
Despite having the awareness and motives of having a portfolio that is diversified, it has
been found that the ownership of the shares in many corporations is actually quite
concentrated. Many of these large shareholders are actually the founders of the firm. As
an example, records have revealed that at the end of the year 2000, Michael Dell owned
about 12% of Dell computers, and Jerry Young owned 10% of Yahoo. By selling the
shares of his company, the founder may himself throw wrong signals to the
shareholders of the firm regarding the value of the shares. When the founder holds a
considerable portion of the firms shares, he actually reflects his confidence about the
future prospects of the company and that he has further plans on implementing a
strategy that can maximize the value of the companys share. It has been suggested in
one of the studies conducted by Demsetz and Lehn that the executives in the industries
that have the greatest potential for incentive problem, tend to retain the largest share of
ownership in their firm.
AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF MANAGEMENT SHAREHOLDING AND THE
FIRM VALUE
Morck, Shleifer, and Vishny (1988) examined the relation between market values and
management shareholdings in a sample of Fortune 500 firms. They found that, for
relatively small shareholdings, firms with higher concentrations of management
ownership have higher market values relative to their book values. However, as
managements holdings rise above 5 percent, the firms become less valuable. This
suggests that as the managers holdings become too large, managers become
entrenched, allowing them more freedom to pursue their own agendas in lieu of valuemaximizing policies.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to interpret the evidence on the relation between value
creation and ownership concentration because the ratio of a firms market value to its
book value, which is used in these studies as a measure of value creation, measures
55
more than how well the firm is managed. For example, firms with substantial intangible
assets, such as patents and brand names, may have high market-to-book ratios even if
they are poorly managed. Similarly, well-managed firms may have relatively low
market-to-book ratios because they own few intangible assets. Perhaps management
ownership is related to market-to-book ratios because there are more benefits attached
to the control of intangible assets. We would expect, for instance, that it would be a
great deal more fun to own a controlling interest in a baseball team or a movie studio,
where most assets are intangible, than a copper mine, where most assets are tangible.
Measuring the value created by managers is much easier in the case of closed-end
mutual funds, which are publicly traded mutual funds with a fixed number of shares that
can be bought and sold on the open market rather than bought and redeemed directly
from the fund at their net asset values, as is the case for open-end mutual funds. The
ratio of the share price of the closed-end mutual fund to the net asset value per share of
the portfolio it holds provides an excellent measure of the value created by the funds
managers, since the net asset value of the fund provides a good measure of the market
value that could be achieved without the manager (for example, if the fund were
liquidated). If investors believe a fund is badly managed or that it generates excessive
expenses, they will not be willing to pay the full net asset value of the shares. Indeed,
there have been many cases of closed-end funds selling at more than a 25 percent
discount.
Barclay, Holderness, and Pontiff (1993) found that the average discount was 14.2
percent for closed-end funds with a large shareholder but only 4.1 percent for funds
without large shareholders. This evidence indicates that large shareholders tend to
depress values, suggesting that the negative effects of management ownership in this
case outweighed the positive benefits.
MANAGEMENT CONTROL DISTORTING THE INVESTMENT DECISIONS
There are several benefits that are associated with controlling a large corporation. And it
has been found that the top executives of the firm enhance and preserve those benefits.
The following section discusses on how the firms investment choices can influence the
controlling benefits in a number of ways.
MAKING THE INVESTMENTS THAT FIT THE MANAGERS EXPERTISE
If the benefits that are derived from controlling the corporation are sufficiently large, the
desire of the CEO to remain in the job for a longer period of time will also be more. In
order to become well established, the managers may resort to investing in irreversible
projects in which they have a strong expertise so that in the near future they will not
become dispensable. This may be one of the reasons why the oil firms have continued
to carry on the process of oil explorations even though the price of oil was continuously
falling during the period of the early 1980s. Apart from this, there is also the reliance of
the managers on personal relationships and implicit contracts which later on make it
very difficult for their potential replacement once they are initiated. There is also the
possibility of managers preferring for investment in variable and fun industries. They
also go for that investment that pays off early. This is an additional consideration in
which the managers want to make investments that help the current stock price of the
firm even when they are hurt in the long run. Thus, having a favorable financial result in
the short run may allow the firm to raise capital at a more favorable rate. This is coupled
56
Managerial Incentives
with the fact that it increases his compensation and at the same time it reduces his
chances of losing his job.
MAKING INVESTMENTS THAT MINIMIZE THE RISK OF THE MANAGER
AND INCREASE THE SCOPE OF THE FIRM
The high degree of personal cost that is associated with the firms bankruptcy provides a
further bias to the investment and the financing choices of the managers of the firm. It is
observed by Gilson (1990) that only 43% of the CEOs and 46% of the directors of the
firm retain their jobs subsequent to the bankruptcy of the firm. One of the reasons that
can be attributed to the fact that the managers prefer the smaller sized empires to the
larger ones is because of the fear of bankruptcy. As a result, the managers tend to
expand their companies in a much faster way than they should. They do this by
investing more of the companys earnings and distributing less in dividends that is
optimal for value maximization. It is also a common tendency on the part of the
managers to be more risk averse in situations of making an investment than they are
supposed to be, especially in case of the treatment of the risk that the shareholders can
avoid through the process of diversification. For the shareholders it is only the
systematic risk that actually matters. But if seen from the perspective of the manager,
both the systematic as well as the unsystematic risk are of significance to him. The
reason being, both these forms of risk actually influence the chances of the firm in
getting into financial trouble. This may be the same reason of why the managers may
also prefer less than the value maximizing level of debt in their capital structure. But,
one must remember that the reduction in the level of risk may not be the only reason
why the managers may go for increasing the size of their companies. This may be the
prestige associated of being the CEO of the company. At the same time it becomes easy
to justify the high level of salaries for those individuals who are managing the larger
sized organization.
OUTSIDE SHAREHOLDERS AND MANAGERIAL DISCRETION
Up to this point, it has been assumed that managers control the investment choice.
However, large outside shareholders, knowing that managers have a tendency to skew
decisions in directions that benefit them personally, have an incentive to reduce
managements discretion. These outside shareholders may favor investments in fixed
assets and other technologies that limit the managers future discretion.
ALLIED INDUSTRIES
Consider the hypothetical example of Allied Industries, a conglomerate with business
units in a number of industries. The companys CEO and major shareholder, Kiran
Kashyap, has appointed Kunal Roy to run its farm machinery division. Mr. Roy is a
good choice for this position because he understands farm machinery better than anyone
in the world. As a champion of quality, he represents a commitment to customers that
Allieds farm machinery will be the best on the market.
Unfortunately, Roys commitment to quality is also his biggest weakness. Kashyap is
worried that Roy will spend too much money to produce the perfect tractor when an
almost perfect tractor would still be the best on the market.
Before completely turning over the division to Roy, Kashyap must decide between two
production processes: a labor-intensive process and a capital-intensive process. The
labor-intensive process requires more upfront training costs, but the yearly cost of the
capital-intensive process is actually the higher of the two processes given the high
maintenance costs of the machinery. Kashyap would certainly prefer the labor-intensive
57
process if he were running the farm equipment division himself. In addition to its lower
costs, the labor-intensive process provides the flexibility to improve the quality of the
product by increasing costs. However, since he wishes to delegate all future decisions to
Brandon, he believes that the capital-intensive technology will be the better alternative
because he does not wish to give Roy too much discretion in choosing the quality of the
product.
Trading Off the Benefits and Costs of Discretion
The Allied Industries example illustrated a negative aspect of flexibility. However,
under uncertainty, flexible investment designs can add value to a firm since flexibility
increases a firms operating options. If the value of flexibility is greater, greater is the
uncertainty. Hence, the costs associated with having to limit flexibility because of
incentive problems is greater, the greater the level of uncertainty. With sufficient
uncertainty, it is better for the outside shareholders to expend more effort monitoring
management but also to allow managers greater flexibility and discretion. However,
when there is very little uncertainty, the outside shareholders may want to limit the
managers flexibility. Thus, we can say that allowing management discretion has both
benefits as well as costs. The benefits of discretion are greater in more uncertain
environments. The costs of discretion are greater when the interests of managers and
shareholders do not coincide. Therefore, one might expect to find more concentrated
ownership and more managerial discretion in firms facing more uncertain environments.
Capital Structure and Managerial Control
A manager may prefer for a below optimal level of debt because of the fact that an
additional amount of debt increases the risk of bankruptcy and limits a managers
discretion. In certain situations the outside shareholders of the firm may view these as
advantageous. The added debt may prevent the manager from expanding the firm more
rapidly than would be optimal. Further, as the higher debt ratio increases the threat of
bankruptcy, which the managers always would want to avoid, the increased debt may
induce the management to avoid the policies they might personally prefer but which
reduce the value of the firm. From the above discussion, one can safely draw the
conclusion that those shareholders of a firm that is run by self interested management
gives preference to a higher leverage ratio, than one would be able to find in firms that
are managed in the interest of the shareholders.
Relation between the Shareholders Control and Leverage: The evidence of the fact
that financing choices of the firms are influenced by the outside shareholders of the firm
was provided by Mehran (1992). In his sample of 124 manufacturing firms, he observed
that a positive relationship exists between the firms leverage ratio and
Thus, it can be said that the firms tend to be more highly leveraged if they are managed
by the individuals who have a strong sense of interest in increasing the stock price of
the firm or if they are monitored by the board members or large shareholders whose
shares have same level of interest.
58
Managerial Incentives
Good
Medium
Bad
Rs.250
Rs.175
Rs.125
50
50
50
60
Managerial Incentives
Medium
Bad
Rs.250
Rs.175
Rs.125
50
50
50
100
25
100
Table 2
It is not possible. The firm can be kept from financing what would be a negative NPV
project in the bad state of the economy by taking on:
a.
A Rs.100 million short-term debt obligation due when the initial cash flows are
realized, and
b.
An additional Rs.26 million in senior debt (or any amount above Rs.25 million)
due in the following year.
These debt obligations, which prevent the firm from borrowing additional amounts in
the bad state of the economy, also prevent the firm from investing in the medium state
of the economy even though doing so is a positive NPV investment. If the debt
obligations are lowered to allow the firm to finance its investments in the medium state
of the economy, then the firm also will be able to finance its operations in the bad state
of the economy.
could not control, the principal could motivate the agent to make value maximizing
choices by having the agent to bear all the risks that are associated with his or her
actions. In brief, it can be said that if the manager is not averse to the risk and he had the
capital, the best situation would be the case in which the manager owned all of the
firms stock.
Measuring Inputs Versus Outputs
It is to be noted that the agency problem can be reduced to a great extent if the principal
can carefully monitor the actions of the agent. This can be done by the principal in
either of the two ways:
a.
b.
Managerial Incentives
Boschen and Smith (1995) examined how the stock returns of a company affect the
future as well as the current compensation of its CEO. This study concluded that the
Jensen and Murphy evidence substantially underestimates the sensitivity of CEO pay to
performance.
In order to understand the importance of considering the CEOs future compensation,
let us consider a CEO who was promised a bonus in each of the next five years equal to
30 percent of the amount by which the companys earnings exceeded a certain level. If
the CEO took actions that doubled earnings in his or her first year, the stock price would
probably increase substantially upon the announcement of the higher earnings,
reflecting not only this years earnings but also the higher earnings predicted in the
future. In this case, one would observe only a weak relation between the CEOs
compensation in a given year and the firms stock return in that year. In the first year of
the contract, the firms stock price would increase substantially and the CEO would
receive a bonus reflecting the higher earnings in that year. In subsequent years,
however, one would not expect the firms stock price to respond to favorable earnings
since the expectation of good earnings was already reflected in the stock price at the end
of the first year. However, the CEO would continue to receive the same bonus he or she
received in the first year. Hence, the correlation between the firms stock returns in a
given year and the CEOs compensation in that year would not be particularly strong.
However, if one looked across firms, one might find a relation between stock returns
and compensation levels cumulated over many years. Boschen and Smith found that the
cumulative response of pay to performance is about 10 times as large as the pay-toperformance sensitivity found by comparing stock returns and compensation levels in
individual years.
CROSS-SECTIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PAY-FOR-PERFORMANCE
SENSITIVITIES
The Jensen and Murphy study along with the new evidence in Murphy (1999) reveal
that the pay-for-performance sensitivities differ substantially across firms. For example,
the CEOs of media companies generally have compensation contracts with substantial
pay-for-performance sensitivities, while the compensation contracts of regulated utility
company CEOs exhibit very little pay-for-performance sensitivities. This difference
probably reflects the fact that the CEOs of media companies have many more
opportunities to consume on the job and are more difficult to monitor than an
executive at a regulated utility. It is also the case that CEOs of small firms have much
higher pay-for-performance sensitivities than the CEOs of large firms. This is not
particularly surprising given the way Jensen and Murphy calculate pay-for-performance
sensitivities. For example, suppose that the CEO of a $100 billion company such as IBM
had a pay-for-performance sensitivity of 1 percent, meaning that he or she would receive an
extra $10 in compensation for every $1,000 in value improvement. With such a
compensation contract the CEO would give a bonus of more than $100 million for
increasing the value of the firm by just 10 percent. While a 1 percent pay-for-performance
sensitivity is probably not feasible at a company as large as IBM, far larger sensitivities are
often observed at much smaller companies. In addition, because the CEOs of growth
companies generally have more discretion than the CEOs of more mature companies, a
number of authors have argued that the compensation of growth company CEOs should be
more closely tied to their companies performance. However, the empirical evidence on this
is somewhat mixed.
63
One reason why growth firm executives may not have higher pay-for-performance
sensitivity is that these firms tend to be very risky. Recall that the most important cost
of increasing performance-based pay is the added risk that must be borne by managers.
This implies that holding all else equal, we expect more risky firms to employ less
performance base compensation. A recent study by Aggarwal and Samwick (1999) of
the pay-for-performance sensitivities of the top executives of large US firms finds that
this is indeed true. In general, executives working for companies with less volatile stock
prices have higher pay-for-performance sensitivity than executives that work for
companies with more volatile stock prices.
IS PAY-FOR-PERFORMANCE SENSITIVITY INCREASING?
Hall and Liebman (1998) and Murphy (1999) report that over the past 20 years
executive compensation in the United States has become much more sensitive to
performance. The observed increases in pay-for-performance sensitivities have been
driven almost exclusively by the increased use of stock option grants.
HOW DOES FIRM VALUE RELATE TO THE USE OF PERFORMANCEBASED PAY?
If performance-based compensation improves incentives, then firms that implement
incentive-compensation programs should realize higher values. Empirical studies, which
have revealed the positive reaction of stock prices to the adoption of performance-based
executive compensation plans, tend to support this hypothesis. For example, Tehranian
and Waegelein (1985) examined stock returns at the time of the adoption of 42
performance-based compensation plans during the 1970s. They found that stock prices
increased about 20 percent, on average, from seven months before the announcement of
the adoption of the plans until the adoption date. A more recent study by Mehran (1995)
looked cross-sectionally at the relationship between the ratio of the market-to-book
value of a firms shares and the extent of performance-based compensation for top
management. He found that these two variables are positively correlated, indicating that,
on average, firms using more performance-based compensation have higher stock
prices.
Unfortunately, it is difficulty to infer causality from these studies. Performance-based
compensation is associated with higher stock prices; however, it is difficult to tell
whether this compensation causes stock prices to be higher or, alternatively, whether
managers are more willing to adopt performance contracts after observing increases in
their stock prices. Perhaps it would be easier to sell managers on the idea of adopting
performance-based compensation if the managers would have made more money in the
recent past had the plan been adopted earlier. In addition, managers are more willing to
adopt performance-based compensation plans when they have special information
suggesting that the firm may be undervalued. The following example illustrates the
reason behind the adoption of a performance-based compensation plan conveying
information to investors.
The Information Conveyed from Adopting a performance-based compensation Plan.
An Illustration
Consider the CEOs of two firms, A and B. The two firms currently have stocks priced at
Rs.20 per share. LEO of firm A has favorable proprietary information that leads him to
believe that his firms stock is really worth Rs.30 per share. CEO of firm B has
unfavorable proprietary information that leads her to believe that her firms stock is
worth only Rs.15 per share. Both CEOs are considering proposals that would lower
64
Managerial Incentives
their fixed salary in exchange for stock options exercisable in one year at Rs.20 per
share. Which manager would be more inclined to accept such an offer? How would
agreeing to a performance-based incentive plan affect the companys stock price? Let us
find an answer to this.
Firm A is more willing than firm B to adopt the performance plan because its
proprietary information implies that the expected value of the options on this firm is
higher. If investors understand these incentives, they will view firm As acceptance of
the performance plan as good news and bid up the price of the firms stock.
As this example illustrates, stock prices may react positively to the adoption of a
performance-based compensation plan even if the plan has no effect on the managers
productivity.
IS EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION TIED TO RELATIVE PERFORMANCE?
Compensation contracts should be designed in such a way that it helps to eliminate as
much extraneous risk as possible. One way to eliminate extraneous risk is with a
relative performance contract, which determines executive compensation according to
how well the executives firm performs relative to some benchmark such as the
performance of the firms competitors. The relative performance contract would thus
have the desired feature of reducing the effect of risk elements that affect all industry
participants, which probably are not within the CEOs control, while rewarding the
executive only when he or she beats the relevant competition.
By far, the largest fraction of performance based pay comes from stock options.
Although these options could, in theory, be indexed to industry stock price movements,
in practice they are not, implying that relative performance does not have a major effect
on pay. For some firms, however, annual bonuses are tied to relative performance.
Murphy (1999) reports that in a 1997 survey of 177 large US firms by the consulting
firm Towers Perrin, 21 percent of the 125 industrial companies tie their annual bonuses
to their firms performance relative to their industry peers. The survey indicates that the
percentage of financial firms that do this is 57 percent, and the percentage of utilities
that base their executives bonuses on relative performance is 42 percent.
The fact that few industrial firms have embraced relative performance-based pay may
reflect the fact that these contracts can adversely affect the competitive environment
within an industry. The disadvantage of this type of contract is its undesirable side
effect of providing the CEO with an incentive to take actions that reduce its
competitors profits, even if doing so does not help his or her own firm. For example, a
firm that utilizes a relative performance contract may compete more aggressively for
market share since the costs imposed on competitors from being aggressive improves
the CEOs compensation, even if the gain in market share does not improve profits. The
consequences are that if all industry participants instituted relative performance
contracts of this type, industry competition would be more aggressive and profits would
likely be lower for all firms in the industry. Perhaps this is one reason we do not
observe explicit relative performance compensation contracts. Thus, we can now safely
conclude that relative performance contracts, which reward managers for performing
better than either the entire market or, alternatively, the firms in their industry, have an
advantage and a disadvantage:
The advantage is that the contracts eliminate the effect of some of the risks that
are beyond the managers control.
65
The disadvantage is that the contracts may cause firms to compete too
aggressively, which would reduce industry profits.
The stock prices change from day to day for reasons outside the control of top
managers (for example, changes in interest rates).
Managerial Incentives
doing so requires the firm to take on negative net present value projects. Hence, there is
a need to adjust the cash flows for the amount of capital employed, which is likely to
change from period to period. In addition, both cash flow and earnings numbers that can
be pulled easily from a firms income statements are accounting numbers which include
various adjustments for inventory valuation methods, pension fund liabilities, and so
forth, and might not provide a very reliable measure of a firms performance.
Self-Assessment Questions 2
a.
b.
Managerial Incentives
being. In such companies, the interest of the managers tends to conflict with the interest
of the shareholders. The primary sources of these conflicts (according to Lambert and
Lacker) are:
a.
Excessive perquisites.
b.
c.
The very use of the executive compensation system can act as a means of aligning the
interest of the managers and the shareholders and thus bring in more shared interest on
the part of both the shareholders and the managers.
Why do Executive Compensation Plans Fail to Deliver the Results?
The basic reasons for the failure of the executive compensation plan can be enumerated
as follows:
Correlation between the size of the company and its payment structure. Because
of the existence of the strong correlation between the size of the company based
on its asset value and sales and the payment structure, companies sometimes tend
to strive for a bigger size irrespective of the fact that it adds to the value of the
concern.
Finally, it is important to mention that while designing a well laid out compensation
contract, the following points need to be considered:
Integrating the incentive plan to the total compensation architecture of the firm.
69
11.7 SUMMARY
The degree to which the managerial incentives match with that of the shareholders
depends upon the time the managers spend on the job and the number of shares they
own.
Firms with concentrated ownership are lively to be better monitored and are hence
better managed. However, the cost of having a less diversified portfolio is borne only by
the large shareholder. Because of the lost of bearing firm specific risk, ownership is
likely to be less concentrated than it would be if management efficiency were the only
consideration.
Entrepreneurs may obtain a better price for their shares if they hold a larger part of the
share capital of a company. The incentive to hold shares is also related to risk aversion.
Managers prefer investments that minimizes risk. This means that they might prefer
larger, diversified firms and investment that pay off more quickly than those that
maximize shareholders wealth.
The benefit of managerial discretion are greater in more uncertain environments and
when there is a gap in the alignment of the interest of the managers and shareholders.
Shareholders prefer a higher leverage than managers. Hence, firm which are strongly
influenced by shareholders employ higher leverage.
A large debt obligation prohibits the managements ability to use resources in wage that
do not enhance shareholders wealth.
Agency problems partly arise because of imperfect and risk aversion.
Stock based compensation has this advantage that it motivates manages to improve
share prices.
However, stock prices change for reasons beyond managerial control. Hence, a cash
flow based compensation plan might provide the best way of motivating the managers.
11.8 GLOSSARY
Limited Liability Provision shareholders financial responsibility for any and all
liabilities that the corporation incurs is limited to the assets of the corporation, and does
not extend to shareholders personal assets.
High Leverage Capital structure which contain more debt than equity.
Tracking Error is the difference in performance of a particular fund relative to a
benchmark portfolio.
Cost of Capital is the minimum rate of return the firm must earn on its investments in
order to satisfy the expectations of investors who provide the funds to the firm. It is
often measured as the weighted arithmetic average of the cost of various sources of
finance tapped by the firm.
Cost of Debt is the rate that has to be received from an investment in order to achieve
the required rate of return for the creditors.
Systematic Risk is the risk that cannot be diversified away. It is also referred to as
market risk or non-diversifiable risk.
Unsystematic Risk is the risk that can be diversified away. It is also referred to as
unique risk, specific risk, residual risk, or diversifiable risk.
70
Managerial Incentives
[v2]11.9
b.
Suppose an arbitrageur who has substantial capital believes that the management
of a given firm is failing to maximize the market value of the firms equity,
perhaps because management is relatively incompetent or is making self-serving
decisions. In the arbitrageurs opinion, the firms shares are undervalued relative
to their potential under better management. The arbitrageur has an incentive to
purchase the undervalued shares until their accumulated shares, perhaps in
combination with those of other shareholders who have been persuaded by the
arbitrageurs argument, is sufficient to vote out incumbent management. As this
process is unfolding, the firms current management realizes the threat to their
positions and may offer to purchase the arbitrageurs shares, using company
funds, at a substantial premium to the current market price if the arbitrageur
promises to cease and desist. Such a payment is called greenmail.
Self-Assessment Questions 2
a.
When the founder holds a considerable portion of the firms shares, he actually
reflects his confidence about the future prospects of the company and that he has
further plans on implementing a strategy that can maximize the value of the
companys share. It has been suggested in one of the studies conducted by
Demsetz and Lehn that the executives in the industries that have the greatest
potential for incentive problem, tend to retain the largest share of ownership in
their firm. By selling the shares of founders of a company, the founder may
himself throw wrong signals to the shareholders of the firm regarding the value
of the shares.
71
b.
The evidence of the fact that financing choices of the firms are influenced by the
outside shareholders of the firm was provided by Mehran (1992). In his sample
of 124 manufacturing firms, he observed that a positive relationship exists
between the firms leverage ratio and
i.
Ii.
iii.
iii.
Thus, it can be said that the firms tend to be more highly leveraged if they are
managed by the individuals who have a strong sense of interest in increasing the
stock price of the firm or if they are monitored by the board members or large
shareholders whose shares have same level of interest.
2.
3.
4.
72
In which of the model the assumption of transaction costs and personal taxes are
not exist __________.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Stakeholders.
b.
Governments.
c.
Creditors.
d.
Employees.
e.
d.
c.
d.
e.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Managerial Incentives
5.
Mehran (1992) observed that a positive relationship exists between the firms
leverage ratio and __________.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
B. Descriptive
1.
What are the factors to be considered design a well laid out compensation
contract?
2.
3.
These questions will help you to understand the unit better. These are for your
practice only.
73
Introduction
12.2
Objectives
12.3
12.4
Financial Modelling
12.5
Marakon Model
12.6
Alcar Model
12.7
McKinsey Model
12.8
Summary
12.9
Glossary
12.1 INTRODUCTION
Corporate decisions are affected by a large number of variables. Many-a-times, the
interlinkages between these variables and their resultant effect on the decision is
extremely complex. Decision-support models are tools used to spell out the relationships
clearly in order to help the management arrive at the optimal decision. There is a wide
variety of decision-support models optimization models, simulation exercises, models
for predicting a firms bankruptcy etc. In this unit, the Modelling Process, Financial
Modelling, Marakon Model, Alcar Model and McKinsey Model are discussed.
12.2 OBJECTIVES
After going through the unit, you should be able to:
Feasibility study,
Model construction,
Model validation,
Implementation,
Documentation.
Feasibility Study
The foremost step in developing a model is to ascertain the feasibility of a model
assisting the decision making process. The various points that are required to be
considered are:
The possibility of all the variables being built-in into a single model.
The costs involved with setting up and running the model, and its comparison
with the expected benefits.
If it is feasible to construct an efficient and effective model for the decision process
under consideration, and if the model can be easily integrated with the process, the firm
can proceed to the next step of constructing the model.
Model Construction
The construction of the model depends on a number of factors. Some of these are:
The way in which these issues and factors affect the decision.
Depending on these factors, the input requirement for the model is identified and the
numerical and theoretical relationships between variables are specified. This is followed
by developing the structure of the model.
Model Compatibility
Once the model is in place, it needs to be made compatible to the tools to be used to
implement it. For example, if a particular model is to be solved using computers, the
model needs to be programmed and converted to a language that the computer
understands.
75
Model Validation
A number of test runs are conducted on the model to check whether it produces
reasonably accurate results. The test runs may use actual past data of the input variables,
and the results generated by the model are compared with the actual results.
Alternatively, the model may be tested by using probability distributions. Test running a
model checks the effectiveness of the structure of the model, as well as its predictive
ability.
Implementation
The implementation of a model includes integrating it with the normal decision-making
process. Further, it needs to be ensured that the results generated by the model are
relevant enough for the decision-maker to take them into consideration while making a
decision.
Model Revision
No model remains useful for an indefinite period. The relationships between different
variables that form a basis for the model may change over a period of time. External
factors affecting a model may also change. Use of the model over a period may provide
an insight into its drawbacks. It is necessary that such changes are noted and the model
periodically revised to accommodate them. Unless a model is continuously updated, it
may lose its relevance.
Documentation
Documentation is a way of institutionalization of the knowledge created during the
process of developing and installing a model. It involves making detailed, systematic
notes at all the stages of the process. The records should be maintained right from the
stage when the need for the model was felt, detailing the factors that gave rise to the
need. The various ideas considered at different stages need to be documented along with
the reasons for their acceptance or rejection. The various problems faced during the
development and implementation of the model, together with their solutions should also
form a part of the records. Documentation also helps in proper communication between
the members of the team working on the development of the model. In addition, it
makes the process of revising the model less tedious.
While developing and implementing models, certain issues need to be kept in mind. It is
not just necessary to specify the objectives of the model, it is also necessary to build the
relative importance of the different objectives into the model. For example, the
objective may be to maximize the profits of the firm, while restricting the debt taken by
it to a certain percentage of the total assets. The model should specify the objective
(maximum profits or limited debt) that would be held supreme, if there were a clash
between the two. Another important point to be remembered is that the model should
preferably focus on some key aspects, rather than be a collection of all relevant and
irrelevant data. A focused model is more likely to generate effective decisions.
76
While the interest burden associated with debt is inescapable, the principal
repayment obligation can be deferred till the recession lasts.
Given these assumptions, the cash balance at the end of the recession will be:
Cash balance at the
beginning
recession
the
Interest payment
In symbols,
C1
%% vns
%% nf
% ni
%
= C0 + ns
%% vns
%% nf
% ni
% nf')
%
(ns
Where,
C1
C0
n%
s%
%%
ns
77
To illustrate the application of the above model, let us look at the case of Anekal
Corporation which is considering the implication of employing a certain level of debt
which will entail a monthly interest burden of Rs.21,000. The joint probability
distribution of and is given below.
(000) (in months)
10
20
30
40
40
.01
.15
.10
.04
50
.03
.15
.15
.04
60
.06
.10
.12
.05
Table 1
Other relevant information about Anekal is as follow:
C0
Rs.2,50,000
0.6
15,000
4,000
0.5
Given the above information, the cash balance at the end of recession would be
C1
%% 0.6 ns
%% 15,000 n% 21,000 n%
2,50,000 + ns
%% 0.6 ns
%%15,000 ns
%%21,000 n% 4,000 n%)
0.5 ( ns
%% 16,000 n%
2,50,000 + 0.2 ns
The probability distribution of the cash balance at the end of recession would be as
shown in the table given below. From this we find that the probability of cash
inadequacy is 0.04. If this probability for cash inadequacy is acceptable to the
management of the firm then the contemplated level of debt is acceptable. Analysis of
this kind would perhaps have to be done for several levels of debt to arrive at the most
desirable level of debt.
n%
s%
C1
10
60
2,10,000
0.06
10
10
20
20
20
30
30
30
40
40
40
50
40
60
50
40
60
50
40
60
50
40
1,90,000
1,70,000
1,70,000
1,30,000
90,000
1,30,000
70,000
10,000
90,000
10,000
30,000
0.03
0.01
0.10
0.15
0.15
0.12
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.04
0.04
Marakon model.
Alcar model.
McKinsey model.
Understand the strategic forces that affect the value of the firm.
FINANCIAL FACTORS
The first step in this model is to identify the financial factors that affect the value of the
firm. The model states that a firms market value to book value ratio, and hence, its
value depends on three factors return on equity, cost of equity, and growth rate. This
conclusion is drawn indirectly from the constant growth dividend discount model.
Let
P0
D1
D1
kg
Further,
D1 = B x r x b
79
Br b
k g
P0 rb
=
B kg
Further, we know that
g = r (1 b) or,
rxb=rg
Replacing the value of r x b in the equation, we get
P0 M r x b
= =
B B kg
Thus, a firms market value to book value ratio can be derived from its return on equity,
its cost of equity and its growth rate. It can be observed from the formula that,
A firms market value will be higher than its book value only if its return on
equity is higher than its cost of equity. This is supported by the other theories of
valuation of equity.
When the return on equity is higher than the cost of equity, the higher a firms
growth rate, the higher its market value to book value ratio.
Hence, a firm should have a positive spread between the return on equity and the cost of
equity, and a high growth rate in order to create value for its shareholders.
STRATEGIC FORCES
The financial factors that affect a firms value are in turn affected by some strategic
forces. The two important strategic factors that affect a firms value are market
economics and competitive position. The market economics determines the trend of the
growth rate and the spread between the return on equity and cost of equity for the
industry as a whole. The firms competitive position in the industry determines its
relative rate of growth and its relative spread. The following figure illustrates the effect
of the strategic factors on the firms value.
Market Economics
Structural
Factors and
trends
Average Equity
Spread and Growth
of Market(s)
Over Time
Financial
Determinants
Average Equity
Spread
Over Time
Value
Creation
Competitive Position
Differentiation
and Economic
Cost Positions
and Trends
Average Equity
Spread and Growth
of Market(s)
Over Time
Average Growth
Over Time
Market economics refers to the forces that effect the prospects of the industry as a
whole. These include,
Number of suppliers
Kinds of regulations
Customers influence.
While the degree of direct competition and customers influence are considered as the
core factors affecting an industrys prospects, the other factors are considered only
limiting forces.
This is reflected in the following figure:
Competitive Position
Intensity of Indirect
Competition
Threat of Entry
Supplier Pressures
Regulatory Pressures
Limiting
Forces
Competitive Position
Direct
Forces
Intensity of
Direct
Competition
Market
Profitability
Customer
Pressures
Better management
STRATEGIES
Once a company has identified its potential growth prospects and analyzed its strengths
and weaknesses, it needs to develop strategies that would help it utilize its strengths and
underplay its weaknesses, thus achieving the maximum possible growth and creating
value. For achieving this objective two kinds of strategies are required participation
strategy and competitive strategy.
A company, to create value for its shareholders, has to either operate in an area where
the market economies are favorable, or has to produce those products in which it can
enjoy a highly competitive position. The strategy that specifies the broad product areas
or businesses in which a firm is to be involved is referred to as its participation strategy.
At the level of a business unit, this strategy outlines the market areas (in terms of the
geographical areas, the high-end market or the low-end market, the level of quality and
differentiation to be offered) to be entered.
Alternative
Strategy
Development
Participation Strategy
Options
In which
markets should
we participate?
Competitive Strategy
Options
How should we
complete in each
market?
Product Offering
Strategy Options
Pricing
Strategy Options
82
A mechanism for making sure that the various projects undertaken form part of a
strategy, rather than being disjointed, discrete projects.
Plans being made in accordance with the long-term goals and target performance being
fixed in accordance with these plans, rather than the level of achievable targets
determining the plans. Performance targets should be a function of the plans, rather than
being the base for the plans.
Target performance, when achieved, should be rewarded with promised incentives.
Non-fulfillment of such promises affects the future performance.
EVALUATION OF THE MODEL
The structure of the model is quite comprehensive as it provides a holistic perspective of
the process of value creation. Nevertheless, the models contention that a firms value
can be measured by its market value to book value ratio has attracted applauds as well
as criticism. The major point in favor of the ratios use is that the market value of a firm,
and the three factors affecting the market value to book value ratio (namely, the return
on equity, cost of equity, and growth rate) are widely accepted criterion for measuring a
firms performance. The criticism is that the return on equity is an accounting measure,
while the cost of equity is a market measure. Hence, the two are not comparable.
Besides, the presence of an accounting measure as a factor affecting the market value of
a firm, leaves the value of a firm open for manipulation.
Self-Assessment Questions 1
a.
b.
Cost of capital.
Value growth duration refers to the time period for which a strategy is expected to result
in a higher than normal growth rate for the firm. The first six factors affect the value of
the strategy for the firm by determining the cash flows generated by a strategy. The last
term, i.e. the cost of capital, affects the value of the strategy by determining the present
value of these cash flows. The following figure represents the Alcar approach.
According to the model, a strategy should be implemented if it generates additional
value for a firm. For ascertaining the value generating capability of a strategy, the value
of the firms equity without the strategy is compared to the value of the firms equity if
the strategy is implemented. The strategy is implemented if the latter is higher than the
former. The following steps are undertaken for making the comparison:
Valuation
Components
Value
Drivers
Shareholder Return
* Dividends
* Capital Gains
Creating
Shareholder
Value
Corporate
Objective
* Value Growth
Duration
Management
Decisions
Discount Rate
* Sales Growth
* Opening Profit
Margin
* Income Tax Rate
* Working Capital
Investment
* Fixed Capital
Investment
Operating
Investment
Debt
* Cost of
Capital
Financing
Figure 4
Source: Alfred Rappaport, Creating Shareholder Value: The New Standard for Business
Performance.
Calculate the Value of the Firms Equity without the Strategy
The present value of the expected cash flows of the firm is calculated using the cost of
capital. The cash flows should take the firms normal growth rate and its effect on
operating flows and additional investment in fixed assets and working capital into
consideration. The cost of capital would be the weighted average cost of the various
sources of finance, with their market values as the weights. The value of the equity is
arrived at by deducting the market value of the firms debt from its present value.
84
Development of strategy
Setting of targets
Implementation.
Mention the value drivers that affect a firms value according to Alcar model.
.
.
.
b.
Development of Strategy
The next step is to develop strategies at all levels of the organization, which are
consistent with the goal of value maximization, and lead to the achievement of the
same. The strategies should be aimed at and give directions for the achievement of the
desired level of the key value drivers.
Setting of Targets
Development of strategies is followed by setting up of specific short-term and long-term
targets. These should be specified in terms of the desirable level of key value drivers.
The short-term targets should be in tune with the long-term targets. Similarly, the
targets for the various levels of the organization should be in tune. They should be set
both for financial as well as non-financial variables.
Deciding upon the Action Plans
Once the strategy is in place and the targets have been determined, there is a need to
specify the particular actions that are required to be undertaken to achieve the targets in
a manner that is consistent with the strategy. At this stage, the detailed action plans are
laid out.
Setting up the Performance Measurement System
The future performance of personnel is affected by the way their performance is
measured, to a large extent. Hence, it is essential to set up a precise and unambiguous
performance measurement system. A performance measurement system should be
linked to the achievement of targets and should reflect the characteristics of each
individual department.
Implementation
The first step in implementing value-based management is to identify the current
position of the firm in terms of the six factors shown in the figure below.
Performance
driven
Low c ost
5
4
3
2
1
Value
based
Managed bottom
up as well as to down
Strong
Self-reinforcement
process
Two-way
Com munic ations
12.8 SUMMARY
Decision support models help management to identify the relationship between different
variables and help them to get an optimal decision.
Modeling process follows steps like feasibility study, model construction, compatibility
of the model with the tools used, model validation, implementation, revision and
documentation.
Probabilistic analysis can be used at the time of recession.
Marakon model uses four steps like understanding of financial factors that determine the
firms value, understanding the strategic forces that affect the firms value, formulate
strategies that lead to a higher value of the firm and create internal structures to counter
the divergence between the shareholder goals and the managements goals.
Alcar model uses the discounted cash flow analysis to identify value-adding strategies.
According to this model there are seven value drivers that affect a firms value.
Mckinsey model identifies value drivers at generic level, department level and grass root
level. The key steps in maximizing the value of a firm are identification of value
maximization as the supreme goal, identification of value driver, development of
strategy, setting of targets, deciding upon the action plan, setting up the performance
measurement system and implementation.
12.9 GLOSSARY
Financial Modelling C1
%% vns
%% nf
% ni
%
= C0 + ns
%% vns
%% nf
% ni
% nf')
%
(ns
Where,
C1
C0
n%
s%
%%
ns
In financial analysis, Leverage represents the influence of one financial variable over
some other related financial variable.
Internal Rate of Return is the rate of discount at which the net present value of an
investment is zero.
Intrinsic Value of an asset is the present value of the stream of benefits expected from
it. It is also referred to as the fair value or reasonable value or investment value.
At the Generic Level, the variables that reflect the achievement or non-achievement of
the value maximization objective most directly are identified.
At the Department Level, the variables that guide the department towards achieving
the overall objective are identified.
At the Grass Roots Level, the variables that reflect the performance at the operational
level are identified.
Aswath Damodaran. Investment Valuation. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002.
Frank C. Evans, and David M. Bishop. Valuation for M&A Building Value in
Private Companies. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2001.
ii.
iii.
The way in which these issues and factors affect the decision.
iv.
Depending on these factors, the input requirement for the model is identified and
the numerical and theoretical relationships between variables are specified.
This is followed by developing the structure of the model.
b.
Self-Assessment Questions 2
a.
According to Alcar model, there are seven value drivers that affect a firms
value. These are:
i.
ii.
b.
iii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
Cost of capital.
Alcar model is considered superior to the Marakon model because it uses the
discounted cash flow model instead of relying on accounting-based measures.
2.
3.
As per the Marakon approach which among the following that shapes market
economics can be termed as a direct force?
a.
Supplier pressures.
b.
Regulatory pressures.
c.
Customer pressures.
d.
Threat of entry.
e.
Which of the following is not a value driver as per the Alcar approach?
a.
b.
c.
Dividend payout.
d.
Cost of capital.
e.
Which of the following is analyzed at the generic level as per the McKinsey
approach?
a.
4.
90
b.
Product Mix.
c.
Customer Mix.
d.
Capacity Utilization.
e.
Operating Leverage.
b.
Capacity utilization.
c.
Operating leverage.
d.
e.
Operating margin.
5.
b.
c.
The firm can postpone both interest on debt and principal repayments
during periods of recession.
d.
e.
B. Descriptive
1.
2.
What are the financial factors that affect the value of the firm according to
Marakon model?
3.
Explain the key steps in McKinsey model to maximize the value of a firm.
These questions will help you to understand the unit better. These are for your
practice only.
91
NOTES
92
Unit
Nos.
Unit Title
INTRODUCTION TO STRATEGIC FINANCIAL
MANAGEMENT
1.
2.
3.
4.
Real Options
II
Capital Structure
6.
Dividend Policy
7.
8.
III
10.
11.
Managerial Incentives
12.
IV
14.
Inflation Accounting
15.
16.
18.
19.
20.
21.