L d F S t d Landscape, Farm System and Location Location Chris Glassey 11 th July 2014 Stocking rates should be g constantly reviewed Changing economics: Maximum milk production and pasture utilisation per hectare does not equal maximum profit Greater feed allowance/cow to realise genetic improvement improvement Likely requirements to farm within N discharge limits Likely requirements to farm within N discharge limits reduce farm N surplus Pastoral 21-Waikato after 3 years Future Farm Current farm Future - Current Cows/ha 2.6 3.2 CSR kg Lwt/T DM 74 80 MS/cow 442 367 +75 MS/ha 1158 1186 -28 $OP/ha* $3903 $4093 -190 (5%) N leached/ kg 25 58 33 (55%) N leached/ kg ha* 25 58 -33 (55%) * 2 years data only Definitions Definitions St ki t /h Stocking rate = cows/ha e.g. Otorohanga average stocking rate 2007-08 2012-13 This group Cows/ha 2.93 2.88 2.86 Less cows = more feed/cow ? improved pastures more N/ha PKE improved pastures, more N/ha, PKE Versus bigger cows, more appetite Cows/ha doesnt fully inform us about the balance between feed demand and feed supply Comparative Stocking Rate (CSR) Cow Lwt Home grown f d Kg Lwt / t DM ha offered St ki t Cow Lwt feed Imported Stocking rate Imported feed Useful to determine the effects of a change in Useful to determine the effects of a change in feed demand and supply on farm performance Comparative Stocking Rate, p g , CSR, Otorohanga District 2012-13 This group Cows/ha 2 88 2 86 Cows/ha 2.88 2.86 Lwt/ha 1328 1327 Tonnes offered DM/ha 16.6 15.9* DM/cow 5.8 5.6 CSR 80 83.5 This groups cows average 464 kg liveweight Feed offered estimated from group data supplied First message First message Assess the balance between feed supply and feed demand for your farm. feed demand for your farm. Use comparative stocking rate (CSR) in Use comparative stocking rate (CSR), in addition to cows/ha. Also use t DM/cow/year Attempt to Link with profit No one perfectly accurate formula No one perfectly accurate formula Any Questions ? y Finding the Optimum for Profit 7000 8000 6000 More cows increases revenue More cows increases 4000 5000 $ / h a Revenue/ha faster than costs costs faster than revenue 3000 Revenue/ha Costs/ha 1000 2000 0 29 44 59 74 88 103 118 132 147 Cows/ha 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Revenue/ha 3600 4950 6000 6750 7200 7350 7200 6750 6000 CSR S CRIT S MAX S OPT Costs/ha 1411 2116.5 2822 3527.5 4233 4938.5 5644 6349.5 7055 Stocking rate DairyNZ Stocking Rate Trial (18-20 t ) 1200 4700 DM/ha, pasture only) Max. Profit Max. milk 1100 1150 4200 4700 $ / h a ) 1000 1050 3200 3700 k g / h a ) p r o f i t
( $ OP $/ha 900 950 2200 2700 s o l i d s ( k p e r a t i n g
800 850 1200 1700 M i l k s O p MS/ha 800 1200 CSR (Lwt/t DM) 91 60 70 76 89 CSR (Lwt/t DM) Research; impact of CSR Research; impact of CSR on production, feed use & profit p , p 12 multi year farmlet trials 1990 to 2010 12 multi-year farmlet trials,1990 to 2010 98 individual farmlet years 98 individual farmlet years Consistent management & measurement g Statistical analysis y Farmlet profiles Farmlet profiles N f % f Farm System No. of farmlet years % of imported feed MS/ha years feed 1 50 0 1172 2 24 6 1205 3 12 15 1510 4 5 22 1870 5 7 29 1710 5 7 29 1710 Research Results Research Results RelationshipbetweenCSRandMS/cowandpastureutilisation 90% 95% 460 500 85% 90% 420 460 80% 380 Pastureutilisation % KgMS/cow 1 unit decrease in CSR 0.5% 75% 340 decrease in pasture utilisation (P<0.01) 1 unit decrease in CSR 4.5 kg increase in MS per cow (P< 0.001) 70% 300 70 75 80 85 90 95 CSR MS/cow PastureUtilisation Reduce CSR by 10 Reduce CSR by 10 Decrease pasture utilisation by 5% Increase MS/cow by 45 kg MS/cow >80% pasture utilisation still achievable with >80% pasture utilisation still achievable with high MS/cow (>90% of liveweight) CS f f CSR is not a strong predictor of profit 3500 3300 3500 3100 ( $ ) 0 0 8 2700 2900 O p
/
h a
( c d o n a l d
2 0 7 0 9 0
2500 2700 M a c N Z
7 N Z
9 2300 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ultimately profit is determined by: <70 71-80 81-90 91-100 >100 CSR Implementing good management practices Key messages Key messages Profit/ha is optimised at a CSR lower than maximum MS production/ha Profit reduction is small if CSR not optimised Profit reduction is small if CSR not optimised O i CSR f fi h i Optimum CSR for profit changes over time Questions? CSR v ROC: 23 farms Waipa district y = -0.0011x + 0.1218 R = 0.1612 8 0% 9.0% CSR v ROC: 23 farms Waipa district 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% Return on Capital 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0% 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 CSR kg Lwt/tDM RETURN ON CAPITAL (ROC) at 4-Yr Av Values Linear (RETURN ON CAPITAL (ROC) at 4-Yr Av Values) Messages Messages Trend for ROC to improve as CSR is reduced Trend for ROC to improve as CSR is reduced N t t l ti hi Not a strong relationship -10 CSR = +1.1% Good grazing management practices required required Example farm Example farm Reduce CSR from 90 to 80 Reduce CSR from 90 to 80 Reduce cow numbers Increase feed supply for same cow numbers Increase feed supply for same cow numbers Base farm assumptions Base farm assumptions 13.2 t Pasture DM offered/ha 2.8 t DM/ha imported feed p 3.1 cows/ha; 90 CSR Crossbred cows; Lwt of 464kg Current pasture utilisation 90% 325 kg MS/cow or 70% of Lwt; 1006 kg MS/ha Change CSR from 90 to 80 Change CSR from 90 to 80 Base farm 80 CSR 80 CSR Base farm 90 CSR 3.1 cows/ha 80 CSR adjust cow numbers 80 CSR import feed (+2.0 t DM/ha) (-0.34 cows/ha) Kg MS/cow 325 370 370 Kg MS/cow 325 370 370 Kg MS/ha 1006 1018 1147 t DM/ha 13 8 13 6 15 2 t DM/ha eaten (cow) 13.8 (4.5) 13.6 (4.9) 15.2 (4.9) N l hi N leaching Your challenge g Estimate your annual pasture growth, feed offered and feed eaten Estimate your CSR annually Estimate your CSR annually Low: <75 ; Medium: 75 - 85 ; High: >85 Adjust CSR for herd improvement ( 3 k L t/ t DM/ ) Adjust CSR for herd improvement- (-3 kg Lwt/ t DM/year) Know your feed demand (t DM/cow) Know your current N input and N surplus/ha How will feed supply change on your farm if lower How will feed supply change on your farm if lower N input is required? CSR Comparative Stress Rate !!! HIGH CSR LOW CSR DESIRED CSR Efficiency S i bili Sustainability Profitability 100% CSR v MS as % of Cow Liveweight y = -0.0166x + 2.0957 R = 0.7917 80% 90% 100% 60% 70% 80% 40% 50% 60% MS as % of Cow liveweight 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 0% 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 CSR kg Lwt/t DM Milksolids as Percent of Cow Liveweight Linear (Milksolids as Percent of Cow Liveweight)