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m m
365 24 Lifetime(years) P (U ) T Total return
=
Total cost Turbine and other fixed costs+(Annual recurrent costs Lifetime)
ref
where P
m
(U
m
) is the mean power in kilowatts at the mean velocity U
m
and T
ref
is the reference
price per kilowatt-hour in the units of the installation and maintenance costs. This ratio is
displayed both in tabular and graphical form as a function of the mean wind speed.
10
The scroll bars can be used to alter both the turbine lifetime and the reference price of a
kilowatt-hour of electricity. The default value of the turbine lifetime is 20 years but it can be
changed from anything between 5 and 50 years. The default value for the reference price of
the generated electricity is 10 monetary units per kilowatt-hour but this can be varied between
1.0 and 99.9. This should cover incentive schemes in the common currencies of US/euro
cents or UK pence and many other currencies as well. It is important to note that the
monetary units of the price per kilowatt-hour are 1/100
th
of the units used for the
turbine, installation and annual recurrent costs i.e. if turbine costs are in dollars, the
reference price per kilowatt-hour for generated electricity will be in US cents.
If the returns ratio is less than one then the investment would result in an overall loss.
Below in figure 5 is an example of the display for a small US Skystream 3.7 metre turbine.
The turbine cost is taken as 9,000, installation costs as 1,500 and annual maintenance
costs as 200. These figures should be treated as approximate. The turbine lifetime has been
left at its default value of 20 years but the reference price has been adjusted to 29.7p per
kilowatt-hour on the basis of a proposed feed-in tariff in the UK that pays a generation tariff of
26.7p per kilowatt-hour plus a further 3p per kilowatt-hour for all electricity exported to the
grid. If all the electricity generated were used locally then the reference price would need to
be adjusted to about 41.7p per kilowatt-hour consisting of 26.7p for the generation tariff plus
about 12p for the savings on electricity that would otherwise be supplied by a utility company.
Figure 5 The returns to cost ratio form (completed)
Apart from maintenance, the investment in a wind turbine is essentially an initial up-front
investment. It can be compared with making the investment in a straightforward compound
interest savings account for which the returns to cost ratio is simply
(1 )
N
p +
where p is the interest rate and N is the number of years that the investment is held. The
equivalent percentage interest rates corresponding to the returns to cost ratios are also
shown in the table. This gives a good indication of the financial merit of the investment.
As with the other finance options, the returns ratio is a basic calculation that takes no inbuilt
account of interest payments that would be incurred if the turbine installation were financed
with, say, a bank loan. In such cases, it would necessary to carry out a more careful cash flow
analysis than is possible in a generalised program like WindPower. Nonetheless, if the
11
equivalent interest rates in the table were somewhat greater than the bank interest rate, it
would indicate that a scheme was financially viable whereas, if they were less, then it is most
likely that the scheme was not a financially viable one.
3
The form can be cleared for new data by clicking the Reset button.
3.1.1 Print the returns ratio.
If a hard copy of the returns ratio results is required then this can be printed by clicking on the
Print (Total Returns)/(Total Cost) item on the menu bar.
3.1.2 Export returns ratios and mean power as a csv file.
The returns ratio data and mean power data can be exported as a csv file for use in
spreadsheet programs like Excel. The spreadsheet column widths will have to be adjusted in
order to see the table contents. The format of the data can be adjusted and the file can then
be saved as an Excel file.
3.2 Calculating the payback time.
The WindPower program also provides an option to estimate how long it will take to recover
the cost of an investment in a wind turbine.
The expression used for payback period is
(
(
m m ref
m m ref
Turbine and other fixed costs
Payback period (years)=
Annual recurrent costs
365 24 P (U ) T 1
365 24 P (U ) T
where, as before, P
m
(U
m
) is the mean power in kilowatts at the mean velocity U
m
and T
ref
is
the reference price per kilowatt-hour in the units of the installation and maintenance costs. It
is important to stress that the installation and other fixed costs are treated as upfront costs
whereas, for example, if the installation costs were funded through a bank loan, the
repayments would be spread over a period and a proper cash flow forecast would have to be
produced to determine the economics of an installation. However, by treating all the
installation costs as upfront costs gives the most pessimistic estimate of payback period.
By clicking on the menu item Payback period, a new form opens as shown in figure 6 below.
Figure 6. The payback period form (blank).
3
The turbine and installation costs could be replaced by their basic cost plus interest
payments. However, treating the interest payments as an upfront cost will give a pessimistic
impression of the financial viability of a scheme.
12
As with the return on investment form, the name of the turbine and the standard deviation of
the wind speed are automatically brought forward from the basic data entry page along with
the mean power results.
Once again, turbine and installation costs are entered into the appropriate text boxes along
with annual recurrent costs. From the above expression, it should be noted that if an annual
recurrent cost is entered that is greater than the cost of the electricity produced in a year, the
payback period becomes infinite! No commercial turbine is going to have recurrent costs of
this size but, if an incorrect figure is entered by mistake that leads to this error, the program
will label the payback period as Never! and colour the label pink. If the maintenance costs
are 70% of the production costs, the payback labels will be coloured pink to warn the user
that there is probably an error in the recurrent cost. Finally, if the payback period is greater
than 50 years, a label will be shown >50 years. An upper limit of 50 years is set both on the
plotting and printing displays. Generally speaking with realistic data, none of these limits or
conditions should be invoked. A turbine that had a payback period for 50 years would
certainly not be a viable proposition.
As far as the reference cost per kilowatt-hour is concerned, this can be adjusted with the
scroll bars. The default value is 10.0 monetary units but, as already mentioned, it can be
scrolled over a range from 1.0 to 99.9 monetary units. This should cover all reasonable costs
per kilowatt-hour in the common currencies of US/euro cents or UK pence.
Figure 7 shows an example of a completed payback form after clicking on the Calculate
payback period (years) button.
Figure 7. The payback period form (completed).
3.2.1 Print payback periods.
If a hard copy of the payback period results is required then this can be printed by clicking on
the Print payback periods item on the menu bar.
13
3.2.2 Export payback periods and mean power as a csv file.
As with the other forms, the payback periods and mean power data can be exported as a csv
file for use in spreadsheet programs like Excel.
3.3 Calculating the cost per kilowatt-hour.
The returns ratio and payback period are the important financial calculations for anyone
interested in investing in wind energy. However, some may also be interested in the intrinsic
cost per kilowatt-hour of wind turbine generated electricity. Accountants have various
methods for making such calculations but the estimate in the present case is obtained simply
from the total cost of installing and running the turbine divided by the number of kilowatt-hours
generated over the turbine lifetime, namely
m m
Turbine and other fixed costs costs+(Annual recurrent costs Lifetime)
Cost per kilowatt-hour =
365 24 Lifetime(years) P (U )
where P
m
(U
m
) is the mean power in kilowatts produced at a mean wind U
m
. The factor
(365x24) just converts the lifetime in years into the lifetime in hours. Once again, if interest
charges are ignored, this will lead to a low estimate of the cost per kilowatt-hour and, in most
analyses of costs from various power sources, it is usual to include interest payments in some
way. A simple approach is to assume that a loan is taken out for the turbine and its installation
and then calculate the overall cost of repaying this sum with interest payments over the
lifetime of the turbine. Appendix C describes how this calculation can be done.
By clicking on the menu item Cost per kilowatt-hour, a new form opens as in figure 8 shown
below.
Figure 8. The cost per kilowatt-hour form (blank)
The name of the turbine and the standard deviation of the wind speed are automatically
brought forward from the basic data entry page along with the mean power results.
14
After turbine, installation and recurrent costs are entered, the Calculate costs per kilowatt-
hour button is clicked. Figure 9 below shows the costs per kilowatt-hour based on these basic
costs. Of course, if other costs like interest payments for, say, financing the purchase of the
turbine were included, the costs per kilowatt-hour would be higher still. Appendix C contains
formulae and a graph of the interest paid on a reducing loan and, if the turbine and installation
costs were financed by a bank loan with an annual interest charge of 5%, the total amount
paid over twenty years would be 16,800 for an initial loan of 10,500. Although this is only
an example, it demonstrates why small turbines only become a worthwhile investment if there
are fairly generous feed-in tariffs to support them. Very larger turbines of the sort used in
commercial wind farms produce electricity at a far more competitive rate.
Figure 9. The cost per kilowatt-hour form (without interest payments).
3.3.1 Print prices.
If a hard copy of the costs per kilowatt-hour form is required then this can be printed by
clicking on the Print prices item on the menu bar.
3.3.2 Export prices and mean power as a csv file.
Once again, the cost per kilowatt-hour and mean power data can be exported as a csv file
for use in spreadsheet programs like Excel. As already mentioned, the spreadsheet column
widths will have to be adjusted in order to see the table contents. The format of the data can
be adjusted and the file can then be saved as an Excel file.
4.0 The wind turbine power profile.
Unlike conventional power stations, wind turbines have a power output that is not under the
control of the operator. It is therefore of some interest to know what proportion of time the
wind turbine produces different levels of power. This information can be obtained by clicking
on the menu item Power-output profile when the following form will appear.
15
Figure 10. The opening power profile form.
This form displays the percentage of time that the wind speed lies between two selectable
values. It is not actually dependent on the turbine characteristics at all but is a function only of
the two speeds and the standard deviation of the unsteady component of the wind. However,
by displaying the steady power curve for the particular turbine, it is possible to select speed
ranges that correspond to a range of power values.
In the opening default form, the speed range is set from zero to the cut-in speed of the
particular turbine. The graph on the right displays the percentage time for which the turbine
produces no power at all as a function of mean wind speed. As can be seen from the example
in figure 10, this Skystream turbine would produce no power at all for about 25% of the time if
the mean wind speed were 5 metres per second. However, at 8 metres per second, this has
fallen to around 10% of the time.
By contrast, it might be of interest also to know what proportion of time the turbine produces
its rated output. In this case, the upper scroll bar in the right hand pane is adjusted to the
rated power output of 2.2 kilowatts. The second scroll bar controls the extent of the speed
range and is adjusted so that the upper speed limit is equal to the cut-out speed of 25
metres/second. Figure 11 shows the results of these adjustments. It should be noted that the
scroll bars change their speed values in steps of 0.1 metre/second.
In this example, the right hand graph shows that at a mean wind speed of 5 metres per
second, the percentage of time that the turbine produces its rated output is only about 1% of
the time whereas at 8 metres per second, this percentage has risen to around 20% of the
time.
Installers particularly of these smaller domestic turbines might find it helpful to explain to a
potential customer these proportions of time so that the client fully understands the
intermittent character of the power generated and is not therefore surprised or disappointed
by, say, the proportion of time that the turbine is stationary.
16
Figure 11. The power profile form set for the rated power speed range.
4.1 Print.
A hard copy of any of the percentage time data can be obtained by clicking on the menu item
Print.
5.0 Other features of the program.
The wind speed units throughout the program are in metres per second. However, by clicking
on the menu item Units converter, a simple conversion chart is displayed that gives
conversions from metres per second into knots, mph or positions on the Beaufort scale.
To ensure commonality of the data used in the forms, if any controls or menu items are
clicked on the main form when another form is open, this latter form will be automatically
unloaded. By the same token, the program only allows one of the supplementary forms to be
opened at anytime.
To close any form, just click on the standard Windows close button on the top right hand
side of each form.
When you opt to close the main form, you will be prompted with a reminder to save any data
that you might want to use again before the form finally unloads.
6.0 Vertical axis wind turbines.
The WindPower program is aimed essentially at horizontal axis turbines (HAWTs) and so only
a horizontal axis rotor diameter is available as an input characteristic of the turbine and the
Betz limit -whose derivation assumes a horizontal axis turbine - is used as a check on the
turbine power coefficients. However, vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) power curves can be
inputted into the WindPower program but some equivalent rotor diameter will have to be
calculated. Appendix D outlines some ways of doing this but it is worth noting that the power
claims of many small VAWTs are clearly exaggerated and so need to be treated with caution.
The introduction of certification schemes like the UKs Microgeneration Certificate Scheme
will do much to prevent outlandish claims for turbine performances being made.
17
APPENDIX A.
Examples of wind turbine data needed to use the WindPower program.
(All data is for illustration only)
A domestic wind turbine Skystream 3.7m 1.9kw.
Rotor diameter = 3.7 metres.
Cut-in speed = 3 metres per second : Cut-out speed = 25 metres per second.
Estimated lifetime = 20 years.
Estimated turbine cost (no interest payments or grants) = 9,000
Estimated installation costs (no interest payments or grants) = 1,500
Estimated annual maintenance costs = 200
Reference price of electricity = (Generation) + (Export) = 26.7 + 3 = 29.7p
Skystream 3.7m 1.9kw Power Data
Steady
wind
speed
(m/s)
Power
output
(kilowatts)
Steady
wind
speed
(m/s)
Power
output
(kilowatts)
1 0 16 2.400
2 0 17 2.300
3 0 18 2.265
4 0.084 19 2.203
5 0.203 20 2.203
6 0.391 21 2.203
7 0.643 22 2.203
8 0.968 23 2.203
9 1.333 24 2.203
10 1.748 25 2.203
11 2.106 26 0
12 2.301 27 0
13 2.403 28 0
14 2.425 29 0
15 2.414 30 0
A large commercial wind turbine General Electric 100m 2500kw.
Rotor diameter = 100 metres.
Cut-in speed = 3.5 metres per second : Cut-out speed = 25 metres per second.
Estimated lifetime = 20 to 25 years.
Estimated turbine cost (no interest payments or grants) = 1,500,000
Estimated installation costs (no interest payments or grants) = 500,000
Estimated annual maintenance costs = 25,000
Reference price = 8p(Utility tariff + 4p (ROC) = 12p
General Electric 100m 2500kw power data
Steady
wind
speed
(m/s)
Power
output
(kilowatts)
Steady
wind
speed
(m/s)
Power
output
(kilowatts)
1 0 16 2500
2 0 17 2500
3 0 18 2500
4 49 19 2500
5 184 20 2500
6 390 21 2500
7 652 22 2500
8 972 23 2500
9 1368 24 2500
10 1865 25 2500
11 2241 26 0
12 2432 27 0
13 2500 28 0
14 2500 29 0
15 2500 30 0
18
APPENDIX B.
Obtaining a .pow file from PelaFlow Consulting.
If a turbine manufacturer or supplier provides power curve details in a tabular form then it is
straightforward to enter the details into the WindPower program. In many instances, the
power curve is given only in a graphical form and it can be a little time-consuming to extract
reasonably accurate numerical values of the power curve from a graph. Pelaflow Consulting
uses a graphics software package to convert graphical data into a numerical file and any
purchaser of the WindPower program is entitled to receive a single conversion from a graph
to a .pow file for a commercial turbine. In order to do this, details of the turbine need to be
submitted to us including website details if available. It should be noted that manufacturers of
small turbines do not always have a power curve for their own product. Nevertheless,
provided some broad details are available, it is possible to construct a power curve that will be
accurate enough to give good estimates of the mean power produced by the turbine.
As many details of the turbine and the purchase order number should be submitted by e-mail
to
windpower@pelaflow.co.uk
It is, of course, impossible for Pelaflow Consulting to provide a power curve data file if certain
basic data cannot be obtained.
Any data file produced will be added to the general database that can then be accessed by
other users.
19
APPENDIX C.
Calculating the total cost of a loan.
If the installation of a turbine is financed through a loan then the total cost of the installation
should include the interest payments in the installation costs. For a straightforward repayment
loan extending over N years and with a fractional annual interest rate of p, the annual
repayment rate is given by
( )
( )
+
=
+
N
N
0
p 1 p
X
Y
1 p 1
where Y
0
is the initial loan.
The total cost of the loan is simply NX and the figure below shows the ratio of the total cost of
the loan to the initial loan as a function of annual interest rate and for a range of repayment
periods from 10 to 25 years.
If you want to know the loan outstanding after n years, this is given by
( )
| |
= + +
|
\
n
n 0
X X
Y 1 p Y
p p
20
APPENDIX D.
Using the WindPower Program with
Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs)
One of the aims of the WindPower program was to provide wind turbine installers, users and
consultants with a means of checking on the plausibility of performance claims made by
turbine manufacturers. The program was essentially aimed at horizontal axis wind turbines
(HAWTs) and one of the important checks on performance figures is the efficiency (often
referred to as the power coefficient c
p
) of the turbine.
p
2
3
Power output(watts)
C
1 D
U
2 4
=
| |
|
\
where is the air density in kg/m
3
, U is the wind speed in m/sec and D is the turbine diameter
in metres.
In the case of HAWTs, there is a well-known upper limit on this efficiency (known as the Betz
limit) of 16/27 or 59%. In practice, very large turbines can achieve peak efficiencies of
between 40 45% but smaller turbines are likely to have much lower peak efficiencies of
between 20 35%. In the WindPower program, any power that a user tries to input into the
program that leads to an efficiency of greater than 59% is blocked and a warning message
box is displayed showing the maximum power that is possible if the Betz limit is not to be
exceeded.
In the case of VAWTs, it is less obvious how to check for the plausibility of the manufacturers
power claims because it is not clear how to apply the Betz limit to them. This is because there
is as yet no clear way of determining the equivalent radius of a VAWT from its cross-sectional
area. The most obvious starting point is simply to calculate the diameter of the circle whose
area is the same as the VAWT cross-section area. Thus,
VAWT
equivalent
4 A
D
=
where
VAWT
A is the cross-sectional area of the vertical axis wind turbine.
If using
equivalent
D as the wind turbine diameter leads to efficiencies that are still greater than
59% then it would be wise to treat the power data with some suspicion as being far too
optimistic. However, if a user still wanted to enter power values into the program without
being blocked by the Betz limit criterion, it would be necessary to increase the equivalent
diameter further, say, to twice the VAWT cross-sectional area i.e.
VAWT
equivalent
8 A
D
=
If, using this diameter, the Betz limit was still exceeded then there is little doubt that the power
curve is wrong and any calculations about mean power, annual energy output and financial
calculations like the payback time would be inaccurate and misleading.
21
APPENDIX E.
UK Feed-In Tariffs for Wind Power.
In order to encourage investment in renewable energy, feed-in tariffs are paid to users of wind
turbines. There are two tariffs, namely, (i) a generation tariff which is a sum paid to the wind
power producer for every kilowatt-hour of energy that is generated (ii) an export tariff which is
a sum paid to the producer for every kilowatt-hour of energy that is exported to the grid. The
tariffs are only guaranteed at the moment up to 31
st
March 2013. However, anyone installing
a wind turbine, say, in 2010/2011 will receive the tariff for that year for the next twenty years.
UK Generation Feed-In Tariffs (Pence per kilowatt-hour)
Power range
From
1/4/2010 to
31/3/2011
From
1/4/2011 to
31/3/2012
From
1/4/2012 to
31/3/2013
Tariff
lifetine
(years)
Less than or equal to 1.5 kW 34.5 34.5 32.6 20
>1.5 kW to 15 kW 26.7 26.7 25.5 20
>15 kW to 100 kW 24.1 24.1 23.0 20
>100kW to 500 kW 18.8 18.8 18.8 20
>500 kW to 1500 kW 9.4 9.4 9.4 20
>1500 kW to 5000 kW 4.5 4.5 4.5 20
UK Export Feed-In tariff = 3 Pence per kilowatt-hour