SHIELD

SHIELD
Robert E. Gold
Robert E. Gold
J ohns Hopkins University J ohns Hopkins University
Applied Physics Laboratory Applied Physics Laboratory
robert.gold@jhuapl.edu robert.gold@jhuapl.edu
Washington 240-228-5412 Washington 240-228-5412
Baltimore 443-778-5412 Baltimore 443-778-5412
A Comprehensive
A Comprehensive
Earth-Protection System
Earth-Protection System
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Earth Impact Fatalities
Earth Impact Fatalities
Historical Fatalities Historical Fatalities
from Worst Disasters from Worst Disasters
by Type by Type
Epidemic 75 million
Famine 9-13 million
Flood 900,000
Earthquake 830,000
Cyclone >300,000
Conflagration 140,000
Landslide >100,000
Tsunami 36,000
Volcano 30,000
Avalanche 20,000
Average mortality from impacts as a function of
energy for the current population of the Earth.
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Cumulative energy-frequency curve for
impacts on the Earth.
How Big, How Often, How Bad
How Big, How Often, How Bad
I Impact speed = 20 km/s
I = 3 g/cm
3
I From Shoemaker (1983)
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Annual probability is 1 in 300.
Tunguska
Tunguska
Blast, Siberia 1908
Blast, Siberia 1908
Tunguska in perspective
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Size of the Threat
Size of the Threat
I Distribution of
Earth-crossing
asteroids from the
Spaceguard survey
(Morrison 1992)
I ~10% of 1-km
asteroids have been
discovered
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Discovery completeness of Earth-
crossing asteroids resulting from
whole-sky surveys.
Inadequate Earth-Based Discovery Rate
Inadequate Earth-Based Discovery Rate
I I Worldwide search effort has Worldwide search effort has
fewer than 100 people. fewer than 100 people.
I I Nearly 1/3 of all NEOs Nearly 1/3 of all NEOs
are discovered at their are discovered at their
closest approach to Earth. closest approach to Earth.
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Bimodal Threat: Comets
Bimodal Threat: Comets
vs
vs
. Asteroids
. Asteroids
Parameter Parameter Long Period Comets Long Period Comets Asteroids Asteroids
Impact velocity Impact velocity ~58 km/sec ~58 km/sec ~20 km/sec ~20 km/sec
Warning time Warning time Typically 2 months to 2 years Typically 2 months to 2 years Decades after survey Decades after survey
complete. Days to complete. Days to
decades before. decades before.
Orbit Orbit
inclinations inclinations
Often high inclination or Often high inclination or
retrograde orbits which are retrograde orbits which are
difficult to reach. difficult to reach.
Typically low Typically low
inclination, inclination, prograde prograde
orbits. orbits.
Mitigation Mitigation
techniques techniques
Rendezvous difficult due to Rendezvous difficult due to
high velocity. Limited to flyby high velocity. Limited to flyby
or impact methods. Require or impact methods. Require
very accurate terminal guidance. very accurate terminal guidance.
Rendezvous, flyby, or Rendezvous, flyby, or
impact methods. impact methods.
Note: Note:

LPCs LPCs constitute 5 to 10% of the Earth constitute 5 to 10% of the Earth impactors impactors and 25 to 50% of and 25 to 50% of
the craters larger than 20 km in diameter. the craters larger than 20 km in diameter.
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A Few Points to Remember
A Few Points to Remember
I I
KE =
KE =

mv
mv
2 2
I I
Mass of 1 km diameter asteroid is ~1.7
Mass of 1 km diameter asteroid is ~1.7

10
10
9 9
tons.
tons.
I I
Energy of an asteroid impacting at 3 km/sec is equivalent
Energy of an asteroid impacting at 3 km/sec is equivalent


to the energy of the same mass of TNT.
to the energy of the same mass of TNT.
I I
Typical asteroid impact velocity is 20 km/sec. Energy equals
Typical asteroid impact velocity is 20 km/sec. Energy equals


44 times the mass of TNT.
44 times the mass of TNT.
I I
Typical comet impact velocity is 58 km/sec. Energy equals
Typical comet impact velocity is 58 km/sec. Energy equals
374 times the mass of TNT.
374 times the mass of TNT.
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Shield Acknowledgements
Shield Acknowledgements
I I Excellent work exists on Excellent work exists on
individual aspects of individual aspects of
Earth protection. Earth protection.
I I SHIELD extends it to an SHIELD extends it to an
overall Earth protection overall Earth protection
system. system.

Detection Detection

Command and control Command and control

Multi-tiered defensive Multi-tiered defensive

system system
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Total System Concept
Total System Concept
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Need For Space-Based Detection
Need For Space-Based Detection
I I
Advantages
Advantages

Optimal location Optimal location

Observing time Observing time

Sensitivity Sensitivity
I I
Results
Results

Detection of Detection of Aten Aten asteroids not observable from Earth asteroids not observable from Earth

Increased warning time for long period comets Increased warning time for long period comets
N N From days or months to years From days or months to years
N N Ability to view comets approaching from the opposite side of the Sun Ability to view comets approaching from the opposite side of the Sun

Increased observing time by Increased observing time by 4 4

Greater areal coverage Greater areal coverage

Better limiting magnitude Better limiting magnitude

Reduced time to complete catalog Reduced time to complete catalog

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Sentry Instruments
Sentry Instruments
I I
1-2 meter diameter telescope
1-2 meter diameter telescope
I I
10,000 x 10,000 pixel charge coupled device (CCD)
10,000 x 10,000 pixel charge coupled device (CCD)
I I
Computing power
Computing power

1 PC-equivalent processor for image processing

1 PC-equivalent processor for image processing

1/2 of a PC-equivalent processor for orbit calculations

1/2 of a PC-equivalent processor for orbit calculations

< 10 MB (RAM)
< 10 MB (RAM)

100 GB digital storage

100 GB digital storage
N N
90 GB storage for images
90 GB storage for images
N N
<10 GB storage for catalog, star charts, etc
<10 GB storage for catalog, star charts, etc
I I
Communications
Communications

RF or newer technology at 1024 bps to ground

RF or newer technology at 1024 bps to ground

Optical cross link for sentry-to-sentry communications at

Optical cross link for sentry-to-sentry communications at
1024 bps
1024 bps
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Detection Distance from Venus, Earth and
Detection Distance from Venus, Earth and
J upiter Orbits
J upiter Orbits
(1-km object,
(1-km object,
V
V
m m
= 22, 20, and 18)
= 22, 20, and 18)
Distance from Sun
(AU)
S
u
n
M
e
r
c
u
r
y
V
e
n
u
s
E
a
r
t
h
M
a
r
s
M
a
i
n
A
s
t
e
r
o
i
d
B
e
l
t
J
u
p
i
t
e
r
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Venus orbit
Earth orbit
Main
asteroid
belt
V
M
=22
V
M
=20
V
M
=18
V
M
=20
V
M
=18
V
M
=22
Ellipses represent
Sentry sensitivity V
M
=22
Jupiter orbit
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Location and Number of Sentries
Location and Number of Sentries
I I Orbits entirely within Earths Orbits entirely within Earths
are necessary to find all Atens are necessary to find all Atens
I I Venus swingby is most cost- Venus swingby is most cost-
effective to achieve such orbits effective to achieve such orbits
I I All asteroids that cross Earths All asteroids that cross Earths
orbit can be found orbit can be found
I I Need 4 to 6 Sentries for Need 4 to 6 Sentries for
complete sky coverage (for complete sky coverage (for
faster asteroid survey and long- faster asteroid survey and long-
period comets) period comets)
I I Orbital period about 240 days Orbital period about 240 days
for faster sky coverage than is for faster sky coverage than is
possible from Earth possible from Earth
I I Can launch every 19 months Can launch every 19 months
I I 5-month transfer to Venus 5-month transfer to Venus
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Deflection Simplifies With Lead Time
Deflection Simplifies With Lead Time
I Only small velocity change required I Deflection much easier decades ahead
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Deflection Techniques
Deflection Techniques
I I
Kinetic Energy
Kinetic Energy
Impact the asteroid at high speeds Impact the asteroid at high speeds
I I
Propulsive
Propulsive
(chemical, electrical, nuclear, solar sails, mass drivers) (chemical, electrical, nuclear, solar sails, mass drivers)
Dock a thrusting device to asteroid Dock a thrusting device to asteroid
I I
Directed Energy
Directed Energy
(laser, solar collector) (laser, solar collector)
Vaporize asteroid material to form a jet Vaporize asteroid material to form a jet
I I
Nuclear Detonation
Nuclear Detonation
(standoff, surface, buried) (standoff, surface, buried)
Deflect from blast impulse or ejected matter, or fragment Deflect from blast impulse or ejected matter, or fragment
asteroid asteroid
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Technique Efficiencies
Technique Efficiencies
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How Big, How Soon
How Big, How Soon
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Deflection Technologies and Efficiencies
Deflection Technologies and Efficiencies
I I
Efficiency
Efficiency
Nuclear surface detonation Nuclear surface detonation
Solar sail Solar sail
Kinetic energy Kinetic energy
I I
Near-Term Technologies
Near-Term Technologies
Chemical thrusters Chemical thrusters
Nuclear detonations Nuclear detonations
Kinetic energy Kinetic energy
I I
Future Technologies
Future Technologies
Solar sails, directed energy, and mass drivers have enormous potential Solar sails, directed energy, and mass drivers have enormous potential
State-of-the-art electric thrusters are too weak State-of-the-art electric thrusters are too weak
I I
Nuclear systems face political and social problems
Nuclear systems face political and social problems
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Soldier Summary I
Soldier Summary I
I I Soldier functions Soldier functions

Survey target Survey target

N N Characterize physical properties, rotation, composition, Characterize physical properties, rotation, composition,
strength strength

Modify asteroid orbit; prevent Earth intercept Modify asteroid orbit; prevent Earth intercept
N N Dock, grapple, intercept Dock, grapple, intercept
N N Impart Impart V to asteroid V to asteroid
I I Scenarios: Scenarios: Rendezvous Rendezvous vs vs Intercept Intercept

Rendezvous Rendezvous: : All-in-one soldier (chemical rocket, electric All-in-one soldier (chemical rocket, electric
propulsion) propulsion)
N N Scouts asteroid from orbit Scouts asteroid from orbit
N N Docks and diverts Docks and diverts

Intercept Intercept: : Scout / Soldier pair ( Scout / Soldier pair (impactor impactor, nuclear deflection) , nuclear deflection)
N N Dedicated Scout precedes Soldier Dedicated Scout precedes Soldier
N N Soldier carries guidance control for targeting Soldier carries guidance control for targeting
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Soldier Summary II
Soldier Summary II
I I
Scouting Instrument Complement
Scouting Instrument Complement

Imager/spectrometer (composition/
Imager/spectrometer (composition/
regolith
regolith
)
)

Ground-penetrating radar (structure/regolith)

Ground-penetrating radar (structure/regolith)

Seismic network (structure/composition)

Seismic network (structure/composition)

Data processing and communications packages

Data processing and communications packages
I I
Pushing Equipment (Rendezvous)
Pushing Equipment (Rendezvous)

Anchors - couple soldier to surface

Anchors - couple soldier to surface

Gimbals - alter orientation to provide thrust in proper

Gimbals - alter orientation to provide thrust in proper
direction
direction

Electronics/communications; sector firing, thruster control

Electronics/communications; sector firing, thruster control

Power systems
Power systems
I I
Pushing Equipment (Intercept)
Pushing Equipment (Intercept)

Inert mass (kinetic)/warhead (nuclear)

Inert mass (kinetic)/warhead (nuclear)

Guidance and control and targeting computers and thrusters

Guidance and control and targeting computers and thrusters
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Location and Number of Soldiers
Location and Number of Soldiers
I I Should have 6 or more soldiers Should have 6 or more soldiers
I I 4 or more in Venus-return 4 or more in Venus-return
orbits for good coverage orbits for good coverage
I I High-energy Venus-return High-energy Venus-return
orbits, like Contours Earth- orbits, like Contours Earth-
return orbits, shown at left return orbits, shown at left
I I 2 or more launch-on-demand 2 or more launch-on-demand
from Earth for quick response, from Earth for quick response,
flexibility flexibility
I I Some comets reached from Some comets reached from
Mars, J upiter, but periods long Mars, J upiter, but periods long
I I Rendezvous usually requires Rendezvous usually requires
large low-thrust system, J upiter large low-thrust system, J upiter
gravity assist gravity assist
Contour Trajectory
Ecliptic-Plane
Projection
Rotating System,
with Fixed
Sun-Earth Line
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Soldier Description
Soldier Description
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Flowchart of SHIELD Detection
Flowchart of SHIELD Detection
and Mitigation of an Earth
and Mitigation of an Earth
Impactor
Impactor
Sentry locates object and
propagates orbit
Impact
Earth?
Sentry informs
Earth
Search for near-Earth
objects
Earth performs detailed
observations and calculations
No No
Mobilize soldiers
Rendezvous
or
intercept
Yes Yes
Soldier
rendezvous and
examine
Soldier docks
with object
Soldier deflects
object
R R
Scout
rendezvous
and examine
Soldier flyby/
impact object
Deflect/
fragment object
I I
Update all
catalogs
Yes Yes
Confirm
impact?
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We Can Start Today
We Can Start Today
I
Sentry can be MIDEX
Sentry can be MIDEX
I I
1-m telescopes exist
1-m telescopes exist
I I
Mid-size Explorers
Mid-size Explorers
have been proposed
have been proposed


with pointing, etc.
with pointing, etc.
I I
Electronics and
Electronics and
computing exist
computing exist
It is time to extend the asteroid catalog.
It is time to extend the asteroid catalog.
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Summary
Summary
All Im saying is now
is the time to develop
the technology to
deflect the asteroid.
(The New Yorker, 1998)