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Math 103
Statistics and
Probability
Probability
CJD
Notation
P - denotes a probability
A, B, ... - denote specific events
P (A) - denotes the probability or chance
of event A occurring
P (A and B) denotes the probability
of event A and event B occuring
simultaneously
P (A or B) denotes the probability that
event A occurs or event B occurs
(or both).
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Classical Probability
Method 1: Classical Approach
If an experiment has
n different sample points, each with an equal chance of
occurring,
and s is the number of ways event A can occur, then
P(A) =
number of ways A can occur
number of different
simple events
s
n
=
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Empirical Probability
Method 2: Experimental Approach
Conduct (or observe) an experiment a large number of
times, and count the number of times event A actually
occurs, then an estimate of P(A) is
P(A) =
number of times A occurred
number of times trial was repeated
Law of Large Numbers:
As a procedure is repeated again and again, the
experimental probability of an event tends to
approach the actual probability. Error is about
n
1
2
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Classical vs Empirical
The classical approach is the theoretical probability
taken by "experimenting" with an infinite number of
trials.
The empirical (or relative frequency) approach is
only an approximation to the true probability since
only a finite number of trials is made.
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Subjective Probability
Method 3: Subjective Approach
P(A), the probability of A, is found by simply
guessing or estimating its value based on
knowledge of the relevant circumstances.
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Probability Limits
The probability of an impossible event is 0.
The probability of an event certain to occur is 1.
0 P(A) 1
Certain
Likely
50-50 Chance
Unlikely
Impossible
1
0.5
0
The total of the
probabilities of all
sample points in a
sample space
must equal 1
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Computing Probabilities
Step 1 :
Determine the sample space in the problem.
Step 2 :
Determine the sample points
for the event being considered
Step 3 :
Assign probabilities to the sample points
Step 4 :
Determine applicable probability formulas
to compute the desired probability
If the event is complicated, break it down into
several simpler events.
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Example
960 , 598 , 2
5
52
=

What is the probability that a 5-card hand from a


standard 52-card deck is a flush ?
Number of ways to have a 5-card hand =
Number of ways to have a flush = 148 , 5 287 , 1 4
5
13
4 = =

Probability of a flush = 5148/2598960 = 0.00198


What is the probability that a 5-card hand from a
standard 52-card deck is a royal flush ?
Probability of a royal flush = 4/2598960 = 0.00000154
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Complementary Events
P(A)
The complement of event A, denoted by A or A' ,
consists of all outcomes in which event A does
not occur.
P(A)=P(A')
P(A) + P(A') = 1
P(A') = 1 P(A)
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Example
Example: Testing Corollas
Toyota wants to conduct a test of its new Corolla model. A pool of 50
drivers has been recruited, 20 or whom are men. When the first
person is selected from this pool,
(a) what is the probability of getting a man?
(b) What is the probability of getting a woman?
P(selecting a man) = num of men drivers / num of drivers
= 20 / 50 = 0.4
P(selecting a woman) = num of women drivers / num of drivers
= 30 / 50 = 0.6
OR because selecting a man and selecting a woman are
complementary events,
P(selecting a woman) = 1 0.4 = 0.6
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Another Example
Find the probability that a couple with 3 children has
at least 1 girl. Assume a child is equally likely to be a boy
as to be a girl.
If P(A) = P(getting at least 1 girl), then
P(A) = 1 - P(A)
where P(A) is P(getting no girls)
P(A) = (0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.125
P(A) = 1 - 0.125 = 0.875
because the gender of the next child is independent
of the gender of the previous children.
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Odds
Odds in favor of event A is the
reciprocal of the odds against that event,
b:a (or b to a)
Odds against event A occurring is the
ratio P(A) / P(A), usually
expressed in the form of a:b
(or a to b), where a and b are
integers with no common factors
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Odds Example
Example: Testing Corollas
Toyota wants to conduct a test of its new Corolla
model. A pool of 50 drivers has been recruited, 20
or whom are men.
The odds against the first selected is a man is
3:2
The odds in favor the first selected is a man is
2:3
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Probability of Compound Events
In general,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive events,
Then P(A and B) = 0
So,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
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Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223
Example
Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy.
P(man or boy) = 1692 + 64 = 1756 = 0.790
2223 2223 2223
* Mutually Exclusive *
Survival data after a plague on a small town :
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Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or
someone who survived.
P(man or survivor) = 1692 + 706 - 332 = 1756
2223 2223 2223 2223
Example (continued)
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223
= 0.929
* NOT Mutually Exclusive *
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Independence of Events
Two events are independent of each other
if knowing that one will occur (or has
occurred) does not change the probability
that the other occurs.
Two events are dependent if knowing that
one will occur (or has occurred) changes
the probability that the other occurs.
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Dependent or Independent ?
Event A = Kevin is chosen in meeting 1.
Event B = John is chosen in meeting 1.
Event C = John is chosen in meeting 2.
Every meeting, one student is chosen to lead a prayer in class.
Events A and B refer to the same random circumstance and are
dependent
Events A and C refer to to different random circumstances and
are independent.
Events B and C are independent.
If the leader cannot be the same for two consecutive meetings,
then events B and C are dependent.
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Example : Independent Events
Example: If an exam has 5 true-or-false questions and
5 multiple questions with 4 choices each, what is the
probability of getting all answers correct if a student
guesses all the answers randomly.
Each question is independent of the others, so
P(all correct)
= (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/4 )*(1/4 )*(1/4 )*(1/4 )*(1/4)
= 1 / (2*2*2*2*2*4*4*4*4*4)
= 1 / 32,768 = 0.0000305
Multiplication Rule for Independent Events A and B :
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
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Conditional Probability
P(B|A) = probability of B given A
= conditional probability event B occurs given
that we know A has occurred or will occur.
P(B) = unconditional probability that event B occurs.
In general,
P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B|A)
P(A and B) = P(B)*P(A|B)
If A and B are independent,
P(A and B)=P(A)*P(B)
because P(B|A) = P(B)
P(B|A) = P(A and B) / P(A)
P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)
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Example
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223
Let M : Man is chosen D : A dead one is chosen
What is the probability that a dead is chosen if it is known
that the chosen one is a man ? P(D|M)
P(M) = 1692 / 2223
P(D) = 1517 / 2223
P(M and D) = 1360 / 2223
P(D|M) = P(M and D) / P(M)
= (1360 / 2223) / (1692 / 2223) = 1360 / 1692 = 0.8038
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Dont get confused
When two events are mutually
exclusive at most one of the events can
happen at a time. If one occurs, the
probability of the other becomes 0.
When two events are independent and
one occurs, the probability of the other is
unchanged.
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Table of Formulas
P(A)P(B) 0
P(A) P(B|A)
or
P(B) P(A|B)
P( A and B )
P(B) 0
P(A and B)
/ P(A)
P( B | A )
P(A) + P(B)
P(A)P(B)
P(A) + P(B)
P(A) + P(B)
P(A and B)
P( A or B )
P(A) 0
P(A and B)
/ P(B)
P( A | B )
independent
mutually
exclusive
in general
When events
are
then
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Exercise
(Walpole #12/105) One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black
balls, and a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black
balls. One ball is drawn at random from the second bag and
is placed unseen in the first bag. What is the probability that a
ball now drawn from the first bag is white?
Let W
1
: selecting a white ball from the first bag after transfer.
B
2
: selecting a black ball from 2
nd
bag to transfer to 1
st
bag
W
2
: selecting a white ball from 2
nd
bag to transfer to 1
st
bag
Find P(W
1
)
P(W
1
) = P((W
1
and W
2
) OR (W
1
and B
2
))
since (W
1
and W
2
) and (W
1
and B
2
) are mutually exclusive,
= P(W
1
and W
2
) + P(W
1
and B
2
)
= P(W
1
|W
2
)*P(W
2
) + P(W
1
|B
2
)*P(B
2
)
= (5/8)*(3/8)+(4/8)*(5/8) = 35/64
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Total Probability
In the previous example (with only two colors),
P(W
1
) = P(W
1
|W
2
)*P(W
2
) + P(W
1
|B
2
)*P(B
2
)
or
P(A)=P(A|E)*P(E)+P(A|E)*P(E)
when E and E partitions the sample space into two.
In general, when E
i
partitions the sample space into k subspaces,
P(A)=P(A|E
1
)P(E
1
)+P(A|E
2
)P(E
2
)+ + P(A|E
k
)P(E
k
)
A
E
1
E
3
E
2
E
k

E E
A
example:
with k colors
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Bayes Rule
If E
i
partitions the sample space into k subspaces,
P(A)=P(A|E
1
)P(E
1
)+P(A|E
2
)P(E
2
)+ + P(A|E
k
)P(E
k
)
P(A and E
r
) = P(E
r
)*P(A|E
r
)
BAYES Rule :
P(E
r
|A) = P(A and E
r
)
P(A)
P(E
r
|A) = P(E
r
)*P(A|E
r
)
P(A)
P(E
r
|A) = P(E
r
)*P(A|E
r
)
P(A|E
1
)P(E
1
)+P(A|E
2
)P(E
2
)+ + P(A|E
k
)P(E
k
)
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Bayes Rule Example
(Walpole #2/105) Police plan to enforce speed limits by using
radars at 4 different locations. The radars at locations L
1
, L
2
,
L
3
and L
4
are operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and 30% of the time.
If a person who is speeding has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5
and 0.2 resp. of passing through these locations, what is the
probability that he will receive a speeding ticket ?
Let T : person receives a ticket. Find P(T)
R
i
: radar at location L
i
is operational.
L
i
: person passed through location L
i
P(R
1
)=.4 P(R
2
)=.3 P(R
3
)=.2 P(R
4
)=.3
P(L
1
)=.2 P(L
2
)=.1 P(L
3
)=.5 P(L
4
)=.2
P(T)=P( (T at L
1
) OR (T at L
2
) OR (T at L
3
) OR (T at L
4
) )
=P(R
1
L
1
)+ P(R
2
L
2
)+ P(R
3
L
3
)+ P(R
4
L
4
)
=P(R
1
|L
1
)P(L
1
)+ P(R
2
|L
2
)P(L
2
)+ P(R
3
|L
3
)P(L
3
)+ P(R
4
|L
4
)P(L
4
)
= (.4)(.2)+(.3)(.1)+(.2)(.5)+(.3)(.2)
= .08+.03+.10+.06 = 0.27
Independent Events:
P(R
i
|L
i
)=P(R
i
)
P(L
i
|R
i
)=P(L
i
)
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Bayes Rule Example (cont)
(Walpole #4/105) If the person received a speeding
ticket, what is the probability that he was radared at
location L
2
P(L
2
|T) = P(R
2
L
2
) / P(T)
= P(R
2
|L
2
)*P(L
2
) / P(T)
= (0.3 * 0.1) / 0.27
= 0.03 / 0.27
= 0.1111
P(L
2
|T) = P(R
2
|L
2
)P(L
2
)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P(R
1
|L
1
)P(L
1
) + P(R
2
|L
2
)P(L
2
) + P(R
3
|L
3
)P(L
3
)+ P(R
4
|L
4
)P(L
4
)
See examples 34 and 35 on pp 110-112.
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End

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