Effects of Flood 2010:

The massive floods that began to hit Pakistan in late July have afflicted the country
extremely. Seventy-nine of the countrys124 districts (24 in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa,
19 in Sindh, 12 in Punjab, 10 in Balochistan and seven each in Azad Kashmir and
Gilgit-Baltistan) have been affected. Official estimates say 1,600 people have been
killed and more than 17 million are affected by the catastrophe.

Agriculture:
The disaster has not only led to losses in terms of human casualties and large scale
displacement but has also damaged the agricultural countrys major crops over an
estimated area of more than 1.38 million acres which constitutes 30 per cent of
Pakistans agricultural land.
Wheat, Pakistans most important produce has been severely damaged in the
floods. Data from the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock reveals that
44,896 tonnes of wheat in Punjab and 80,823 tonnes in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa have
been totally spoilt. Moreover, in Sindh, some 5, 41,696 tonnes of wheat are
estimated to have been destroyed, whereas, in Balochistan, the overall damage to
crops has occurred over an area of 321,651 acres.
At the start of the current fiscal years, the Annual Plan envisaged a continued
process of recovery of the economy with the GDP growth rate rising to 4.5 per cent
and the inflation rate to 9.5 per cent. According to the model, post-floods, the
growth rate could now fall to below one per cent. The damage to major crops like
cotton, rice and sugarcane could lead to a big fall in the value added by the
agriculture sector of almost eight per cent. Industrial growth will be limited to
below four per cent by the negative impact especially on agro-based industries like
textiles and sugar. The services sector may grow by less than three per cent
because of the lower volume of domestic trade and bottlenecks in the transport
sector due to the damage to infrastructure. Both private investment and per capita
consumption are expected to register declines. The potential loss to GDP is almost
$7 billion or over Rs600 billion.
According to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) Damage and
Needs Assessment (DNA) report, approximately, 9.6 million people have been
affected in Sindh and Balochistan as a result of the floods; 520 people were killed
and more than 1,180 people were injured. The impact of the flooding in 2011
cannot be seen in isolation. In 2010, 20 million people were affected by the largest
floods in living memory; many of the victims of the 2010 floods were still in the
recovery phase when the 2011 floods struck. The 2011 floods compounded the
damage of the previous disaster.

Education:
The total number of educational institutions affected by the floods is 4,096 (Sindh:
3,892; Balochistan: 204). The damaged institutions are 6.7 percent of the total
institutions in the affected districts in the two provinces. In Sindh, 1,032 schools
for females are damaged (385 are fully damaged and 647 are partially damaged) or
26.5 percent of the total of 3,892 damaged schools, and a total of 2,860 schools for
males are damaged (1,022 are fully damaged and 1,838 are partially damaged).
This means that 73.5 percent of the total of 3,892 damaged is male schools. In
Balochistan, 51 damaged schools are females schools (3 are fully damaged and 48
are partially damaged).These make up 25 percent of the total of 204 damaged
schools, while the 153 damaged schools for males (17 are fully damaged and 136
are partially damaged) make up 75 percent of the total of 204 damaged schools.
The total damage and loss in both the provinces is estimated at Rs. 12,013 million
including indirect loss of Rs. 1,856 million and direct loss of Rs.10,157 million. In
Sindh, total damage and loss is estimated at Rs. 11,751 million including indirect
loss of Rs 1,771 million and direct loss of Rs. 9,980 million. In Balochistan,
indirect and direct losses are Rs. 85.1 million and Rs. 177.1 million respectively.
The total cost of reconstruction to this sector for all the damaged institutions in
Sindh and Balochistan is estimatedat Rs.22, 589 million.

Transport and Communication:

The 796,095-square kilometer area of Pakistan and its almost 180 million
inhabitants are connected through a transport and communications (T&C) network
of 259,618 km of roads; 7,791 km of railways; 42 airports; and 34,950 km of
telecommunication lines and other infrastructure. The 11,800 km long national
highways and motorways network is the spine of the primary transport corridor.
This is supported by the provincial highways network of 37,400 km that fans out to
the districts through 161,000 km of district roads (including farm-to-market and
access roads) in rural areas and 54,000 km of municipal roads in urban areas. In the
two flood-affected provinces, the national highway system traverses 1,975 km in
Sindh and 4,630 km in Balochistan. About 13,700 km of provincial highways and
31,900 km of district roads are located in Sindh and 11,800 km of provincial
highways and 20,200 km of district roads are in Balochistan. The railway network
of 7,791 km railway lines and 1,100 stations serve the long-distance main north
south corridor and connections to other regions including Balochistan.
Approximately 1,899 km of railway lines are in Sindh while 1,202 km are in
Balochistan. Six international airports in major cities serve as hubs connecting to
19 regular and 17 feeder and other airports. The telecommunication infrastructure
consists of 3,155 exchanges; 34,950 km of optical fiber transmission lines for the
landline networks; and 25,554 transmission towers for the cellular telephone
networks. The rains and floods during August and September 2011 damaged the
Transport and Communications (T&C) infrastructure in the province of Sindh and
Balochistan. Based on the data received on the damages to the T&C Sector, a total
of 5 districts in Balochistan and 18 in Sindh have been affected by the floods and
the longer than usual spell and higher intensity of rains. It affected the network of
national and provincial highways, district and the reported damage is classified
into two broad categories: Completely Destroyed (CD) and Partially Damaged
(PD). For roads and railways, the data is segregated into lengths of roads, railway
lines and number of affected structures. For telecommunication infrastructure, the
reported damage is more specific. Four national highways were affected at various
places; three in Sindh and one in Balochistan. On these highways, seven bridges
were also reported to be partially damaged; all located in Sindh. About 1,955 km
of provincial highways in Sindh, representing 15 percent of the provincial highway
assets and 5,773 km of district roads were affected (including municipal and urban
roads). On the contrary, damages in Balochistan are lower and comprised about
426 km provincial highways and district roads (about 1 percent of this road stock).










Floods Damages and Reconstruction Cost by Sectors (Rs. In Billion) 2010
Province/Area Damages Reconstruction
AJK 7 13
Balochistan 53 27
FATA 6 8
Federal 93 96
Gilgit Bultistan 4 7
Khyber 100 106
Punjab 219 93
Sindh 373 228

Total 855 578


Floods Damages and Reconstruction Cost by Sectors (Rs. In Billion) 2010
Sectors Damages Reconstruction
Transport 113 200
Agriculture 429 22
Education 27 43
Health 4 4
Housing 135 126
Financial Sector 57 39

Total 765 434





Cotton industry:

Cotton Crop in Punjab has not been affected much by the rains. However,
about 35% to 40% of the Cotton crop has been damaged in Sindh. The
official estimate of expected cotton production was 15 million bales
comprising of 10.5 million from Punjab and 4.5 million from Sindh.
Assuming cotton production of Sindh at approximately 2.5 million bales,
total cotton production is likely to be about 13 million bales this year 2011-
12. The Spinning Sector of the textile industry of Pakistan consumes
approximately 14 million bales of 375 LBS (170 KGMS) each annually.
Consequently, at least 1.0 million bales will be needed to meet the
requirements of the spinning sector.
The Government of Pakistan allows Free Trade Policy, and cotton can be
exported as well imported duty free in Pakistan. Hence shortage of cotton
production due to floods and rains will not create problems for the textile
industry. However, the reports of damage to cotton crop can escalate
cotton prices. The massive floods of summer 2010 resulted in escalation in
cotton prices from Rs 7150 per maund in October 2010 to Rs 12,500 per
maund in March 2011. Similarly recent floods and rains have damaged 35
to 40% of the cotton crop in Sindh! Cotton price of Base Grade have
escalated from Rs 5,500 per maund to about Rs 6500 per maund. In order
to improve the cotton production capability of Pakistan, USA will provide
US $ 9 million aid during the 3 year period from 2010 to 2012 in three
instalments.