Shalimar Infotech PVT LTD: Analysis - HDPE Import Data (May 2013)

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Introduction 01 Important Global News
Exhibit: Some of the important global HDPE related plant news 08
Import Snapshot
Exhibit: HDPE India Import Snapshot 01 Demand Supply & Net Availability Snapshot
Exhibit: Import Data Average in 2013 01 Exhibit: India HDPE Demand Supply 09
Exhibit: Geographical Distribution of India HDPE I mports (Volume) 02 Exhibit: India All PE Demand Supply 09
Exhibit: Geographical Distribution of India HDPE I mports (Value) 02 Exhibit: India Polymer Demand Supply 10
Exhibit: India Ethylene Net Availability 10
HDPE India Pricing
Exhibit: HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing 03 HDPE India Import Duty
Exhibit: HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min) 03 Exhibit: HDPE Import Duty applicable in India 10
Exhibit: M-o-M Average Prices % Change 04
Exhibit: Major Products Price Trends 04 Government of India 5 Year Plan Figures
Exhibit: HDPE Grades India May Price Movement 05 Exhibit: GoI 11th/12th/13th 5 Year Plans CAGR Figures 11
Exhibit: HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement (May 2012 May 2013) 05
Exhibit: HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement (May 2010 May 2013) 06 Crude Price Movement
Exhibit: Dated Brent/Nymex Crude May Price Movement 11
Port Performance 06
Exhibit: Highest Import Volume Countries at J NPT Port 06 INR V/ s USD
Exhibit: INR Performance against the USD in May 12
Feedstock Price Movement
Exhibit: Ethylene May India Price Movement 07 India GDP Growth Projection
Exhibit: India GDP Growth Projection 2013-14 12
HDPE May Offers to India

Exhibit: HDPE Offers made to India in the month of May 07

Disclaimer 13
POLYMERUPDATE
Analysis - HDPE Import Data (May 2013)
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Analysis HDPE Import Data

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400018,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 1

Introduction

HDPE stands for High-Density Polyethylene. It is sometimes also referred to as polyethylene high-density (PEHD) and sees high import volume into India
given its various applications. It takes 1.75 kilograms of petroleum (in terms of energy and raw materials) to make one kilogram of HDPE. Known for its
large strength to density ratio, HDPE finds applications in Raffia, Blow Moulding, Film, Pipes and Injection Moulding. HDPE is highly preferred as a
sheathing material where it provides high resistance to water penetration. It is very hard, has low coefficient of friction, and is abrasion resistant. Hence, it
is used in products and packaging such as milk jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water pipes.

HDPE is principally used for the manufacture of high-performance pipe, blow-molded household and industrial bottles, oil bottles, injection-molded food
containers, consumer durables and disposable goods and film goods such as grocery sacks and merchandise bags.

Import Snapshot

Exhibit: HDPE India Import Snapshot

Source: GoI May 2013 Import Data

The above exhibit gives a snapshot on HDPE India imports in terms of volume imported and monetary value of the imports that have taken place in 2013.
The volume for the month of May was recorded at 31949 MTS which is a 8.96% increase over the import volume of April. The monetary value of the
imports was Rs. 266 crores which is a 6.83% increase over the monetary value of HDPE imported in the preceding month. May is only the second month
in the current year to register an import upside, the other month being March.

Exhibit: Import Data Average in 2013

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The above table gives out the average figures for HDPE imported into India in 2013. As we can see, the average import per month stands at 31005 MTS,
the average import monetary value per month is Rs. 255 crores. HDPE imports in 2013 have seen an average volume decline of 2.42% and an average
monetary value decline of 1.09% per month so far into the year.

For May, HDPE imports have been received from around 20 countries with about 21 ports (sea/dry/air) in India being the destination points.

Exhibit: Geographical Distribution of India HDPE Imports (Volume)


The Middle East region accounted for 90.76% of HDPE imported into India. Among the countries, Qatar accounted for 14158 MTS (44.31% of HDPE
imported into India) followed by Saudi Arabia at 8946 MTS (28%) and Iran at 2401 MTS (7.51%).

Exhibit: Geographical Distribution of India HDPE Imports (Value)


The monetary value of HDPE imported into India from the Middle East region was Rs. 237 crores. Among the countries, the value of HDPE imported from
Qatar was worth Rs. 116 crores followed by Saudi Arabia at Rs. 73 crores and Iran at Rs. 19 crores.

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HDPE India Pricing

Exhibit: HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The above table lists out the average prices observed for the respective HDPE grades for the first five months of the year. Three month average (Mar13
May13) and six month average (Dec12 - May13) are also provided.

Exhibit: HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min)


The above table lists out the maximum and minimum prices that were observed for HDPE Film in the first five months of the year. The overall maximum
and minimum prices for the year 2013 are also provided. As we can see, the maximum price recorded in the month of May was Rs. 86.96 while the
minimum price was Rs. 84.96.

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Exhibit: M-o-M Average Prices % Change


The above table lists out the M-o-M changes for the respective HDPE grades considering average monthly prices. The month of May saw an increase in
prices across HDPE grades except the Pipe grade which saw a minor decline in average prices of 0.09%. As, we can see, HDPE grades have witnessed a
positive net uptrend so far in the year. The Film grade has seen a maximum net upside of 3.79% so far during the year while the Raffia grade witnessed
the least net upside of 1.24% so far into the year.

Exhibit: Major Products Price Trends

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives [HDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), LDPE
(Reliance Ex-Mumbai Panvel Depot Rs/Kg Inclusive of excise duty), LLDPE (Reliance
Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PVC (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PP (Reliance Ex-Hazira
Rs/Kg Basic), PS (Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic), PET (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), EVA
(Reliance Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic)]

Note: The above table has been formulated by comparing the average price for the particular month as compared to the average price of the preceding
month. If the value is Up, the average price for the particular month was observed to be higher as compared to the average price for the preceding
month. If the value is Down, the average price for the particular month was observed to be lower as compared to the average price of the preceding
month. If the value is Neutral, no change was observed in the average price of the particular month and the preceding month. We have considered the
India price movements of the following grades: HDPE Film, Blow Moulding, Injection, Pipe, Raffia; LDPE General, Heavy Duty, Injection, Lamination,
Milk Pouch; LLDPE Extrusion Coating, Film, Injection, Rotomoulding; PP Block Copolymer, BOPP Homopolymer, Injection, Raffia, Random Copolymer,
TQ Film; PVC - Suspension; PET Bottle; PS GPPS, HIPS; EVA.

The HDPE grades registered an increase in monthly average prices except for the pipe grade which recorded a slight decline of 0.09%.
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Exhibit: HDPE Grades India May Price Movement


The above chart gives out the price movement in the respective HDPE grades for the month of May.

Exhibit: HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement (May 2012 May 2013)


The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a one year time frame. 60 period moving average is also highlighted. HDPE Film prices
closed May 2013 at a price which is 3.57% higher than the price observed in May 2012.
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Exhibit: HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement (May 2010 May 2013)


The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a three year time frame. 60 period moving average is also highlighted. HDPE Film prices
closed May 2013 at a price which is 26.93% higher than the prices of May 2012.

Port Performance

J NPT Port (Indias largest seaport) received the maximum amount of HDPE import shipments into India. The volume involved was 20224 MTS which is
63.30% of the total HDPE imported into India.

Exhibit: Highest Import Volume Countries at J NPT Port

Source: GoI 2013 May Import Data

The above pie chart shows the countries with highest HDPE import volume activity at J NPT. The
percentages denote HDPE import shipments at J NPT from the respective countries in proportion to the total
volume of HDPE imported into India. Imports from Qatar were the highest at 9128 MTS followed by
imports from Saudi Arabia at 5060 MTS and Iran at 2401 MTS.
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Feedstock Price Movement

Exhibit: Ethylene May India Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (India CFR USD/MT)

Ethylene witnessed an upside in prices in the month of May. Ethylene prices were up by 4.53% during May.

HDPE May Offers to India

Exhibit: Some of the HDPE Offers made to India in the month of May

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

The above table lists out some of the HDPE offers that were made to India in the month of May.

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Important Global News

Exhibit: Some of the important global HDPE related plant news

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence
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Demand Supply Snapshot

Exhibit: India HDPE Demand Supply

Source: Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference 2013 India Country Report (A:Actual, E:Estimate)

The above table provides the India HDPE Demand Supply Snapshot. HDPE registered a 9% growth in 2012, this is likely to increase to 12% and 14% in
2013 and 2014 respectively.

Exhibit: India All PE Demand Supply


The above table lists out the PE Demand Snapshot for India. As we can see, PE recorded a growth of 12% in 2012 and likely to maintain the momentum
in 2013 and 2014.

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Exhibit: India Polymer Demand Supply


The above table lists out the India Polymer Demand Supply scenario. Operating rate is expected to increase from 83% in 2012 to 86% in 2013 and
expected to touch 90% in 2014.

Exhibit: India Ethylene Net Availability


The above table lists out the Ethylene Net Availability for India.

HDPE India Import Duty

Exhibit: HDPE Import Duty applicable in India

Source: GoI

The above table lists the total duty that
applies on HDPE imports.
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Government of India 5 Year Plan Figures

Exhibit: GoI 11th/12th/13th 5 Year Plans CAGR Figures

Source: GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals

The above table gives the Actual CAGR achieved in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2005/06 2011/12) and the projected CAGR for the 12th 5 year Plan (2011/12
2016/17) and 13th 5 year Plan (2016/17 2021/22) for HDPE and Ethylene. As per government projections, HDPE is likely to enjoy above GDP growth
rates in the 12th and 13th 5 Year plan periods.

Crude Price Movement

Exhibit: Dated Brent/Nymex Crude May Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (USD/Barrel)

Dated Brent prices saw an increase of 0.44% while Nymex prices saw an increase of 1.03% in the month of May.
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INR V/ s USD

Exhibit: INR Performance against the USD in May

Source: INR price movement is based on mid-market averages and sourced from www.x-rates.com

The rupee saw a depreciation of 5.27% against the USD in the month of May. The rupee has seen a net depreciation of 3.29% against the USD so far in
2013.

India GDP Growth Projection

Exhibit: India GDP Growth Projection 2013-14

Source: Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference 2013 India Country Report

The above table lists out the estimates on Indias GDP growth for 2013-14 made by various agencies.
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We look forward to receiving any feedback/suggestions on this analysis.

Disclaimer:ThisanalysismakesuseofImportdataprocuredfromtheIndianCustomsonanasisbasis.Wehaveattemptedtorefinethe
raw database by removing records with sweep/reprocessed/offgrade material shipments and records with nonstandard units. We have
undertakenourbesteffortsinrefiningthedatabasewhileformulatingourstatistics,however,customsdataisknowntoincluderepetitions
whichisdifficulttoverifyindependentlyandmayhaveinadvertentlygotincludedinthisanalysis.Norepresentationorwarranty,expressor
implied,ismadeastothefairness,accuracy,completenessorcorrectnessoftheinformation/opinionscontainedherein.Itisadvisablethat
allfiguresbeconsideredasapproximate.
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