Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
. Thus, target meadows
with higher resistance (e.g. settlement) between themselves
and the source meadow have accordingly lower attractive-
ness than a target meadow separated with lower resistance
(e.g. open land).
If more than one landscape type crosses the path of a but-
tery the easiest way is to draw a straight line between source
and target patches, determine the distances d
x
travelled
through each landscape type x with x 2 {m, l, f, s} (see below)
and d
m
+ d
l
+ d
f
+ d
s
= d
ij
and calculate mean resistance of the
four landscape types by
a
ij
X
x2fm;l;f ;sg
d
x
a
x
=d
ij
1
As Eq. (1) indicates, the average landscape resistance is the
mean of the landscape specic resistances a
x
weighted by
the proportion d
x
/d
ij
of the dispersal path that falls into land-
scape type x. We distinguish four types of land: meadow with
a
1
m
3 km, open land with a
1
l
2 km, forest with a
1
f
1 km
and settlements with a
1
s
0.5 km. The numerical values are
based on expert knowledge and arguments of plausibility.
Even if closer meadows were not preferred, meadows fur-
ther away would receive fewer butteries than meadows clo-
ser to the source due to the thinning factor. This indicates
that a meadow farther away covers a smaller angle than a clo-
ser meadow and just statistically receives fewer butteries.
Precisely, viewed from the source patch, the arc spanned by
a target patch diminishes with d
1
ij
. Altogether, the attractive-
ness of a target meadow, composed of preference and thin-
ning factor, decreases with increasing distance as a
1
ij
d
2
ij
. If
no dispersal mortality is assumed, all butteries reach some
meadow, so the sum S
i
P
j
a
1
ij
d
2
ij
(where j = 1. . . number of
patches, and j 5i) must be one. Thus the factor a
1
ij
d
2
ij
has
to be normalised by dividing it by S
i
and the attractiveness
of a target patch j for butteries emigrating from a source
patch i becomes a
1
ij
d
2
ij
=S
i
.
Now we consider the probability of surviving a ight to a
given target meadow. We adopt the exponential relationship
P expa
ij
d
ij
most commonly used (e.g. Hanski, 1999) and
assume the inverse of the mean landscape resistance a
1
ij
as
mean dispersal distance a buttery can reach alive. At high
a
ij
therefore most butteries already die after short travel dis-
tances. Including dispersal mortality along with attractive-
ness factor, the total share of emigrants from a source
meadow i that reaches a particular target meadow j is
U
ij
expa
ij
d
ij
a
ij
d
2
ij
X
j
a
ij
d
2
ij
2
with a
ij
being determined by Eq. (1).
4.3. Model analysis and results
The objective of the following analysis is to understand the
behaviour of the ecological model without consideration of
the spatial arrangement of the meadows. For this we consider
B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E R VAT I O N 1 4 0 ( 2 0 0 7 ) 1 7 4 1 8 6 179
Author's personal copy
a simple and ctitious landscape in which all patches have
equal size, and the distances between all possible pairs of
patches are identical. Although such a conguration is geo-
metrically impossible to achieve in a two-dimensional land-
scape, it is nevertheless frequently used in ecological
research as a reference model or starting point for more com-
plex research questions (e.g. Tilman et al., 1994). In the pres-
ent study, the objective of such an analysis is to gain a general
understanding of the effects of the 112 mowing regimes on
the viability of a population inhabiting an ensemble of mead-
ows. For our purpose, a suitable indicator for metapopulation
viability is the total meadow area occupied by the buttery
after a certain number of model years. As the dynamics of
the species are stochastic, it is appropriate to use the ex-
pected area of meadow occupied (unpublished results show
that it is strongly correlated to the quasi-extinction risk (Ginz-
burg et al., 1982)).
A landscape of 40 meadows, each of 1 ha size is consid-
ered. On each meadow either the conventional or the pro-
moted mowed regime is applied. To make the analysis
comparable to the analysis of the ecological-economic model
(described in the next section) we consider that less costly
mowing regimes can be implemented on accordingly larger
proportions of the total meadow area than more costly ones.
The distance between the 40 meadows is set such that the
probability to survive the ight from one patch to the other
is 0.5 for all pairs of meadows and all meadows have the same
attractivity. For all 112 possible mowing regimes the propor-
tion of all meadows that are occupied after 20 years (this pro-
portion is henceforth referred to as occupancy) is recorded.
Each simulation is repeated 100 times to account for the sto-
chasticity in the ecological dynamics and an average occu-
pancy is determined.
Fig. 3 shows the occupancy of the meadows as a function
of the applied mowing regime. Eggs and larvae are especially
abundant on the plants in the weeks 69 (second week of June
till rst week of July). Thus, mowing in these weeks is very
detrimental irrespective of the mowing frequency which is
indicated by the black colour in Fig. 3 for these weeks. Fur-
thermore in mowing scenarios with two cuts, mowing in ear-
lier weeks is detrimental, too, if the second cut falls into the
weeks of high larvae abundance and thus causes severe lar-
vae mortality. Therefore, the occupancy of scenarios with
two cuts is very sensitive both to the time of rst mowing
and the time between the cuts. The highest occupancy (white
colour) is achieved by mowing twice every year with the sec-
ond cut 8 weeks after the rst cut (frequency 18) and the rst
cut in the third week of June (week 3). By this choice the rst
cut is early enough so plants will have recovered when the
eclosion periods starts and the second cut takes place after
the eclosion period. Relatively benecial mowing regimes
are also to mow once every year (frequency 10) early enough
before the eclosion period. In these mowing regimes the
mowing frequency is high enough to ensure sufciently high
plant and ant nest abundance and at the same time larvae
mortality due to mowing is sufciently low. Mowing only
every second year (frequency 2-. . .) is often more benecial
than mowing every year (frequency 1-. . .), because this means
that larvae and eggs are killed only every second year. In some
cases it is, however, less benecial, because it also reduces the
abundance of ant nests, so there is a trade-off (Section 4.1
c.f.). The results of Fig. 3 are very robust against variations
in the dispersal survival (a range of 0.1. . . 0.9 was tested)
and the total number of meadows, as long as the latter was
larger than about 40.
An interesting observation is that the occupancy is very
sensitive to the applied mowing regime and ranges from zero
(for the worst) to one (for the best mowing regimes). In com-
parison, the proportion of meadow area with promoted mow-
ing regime varies much less (only by a factor of about 2) from
the cheapest to the most expensive mowing regimes (Fig. 2).
This indicates that the cost-effectiveness of a promoted mow-
ing regime depends more on its ecological suitability than the
proportion of meadow area on which it is applied (i.e. on the
cost structure).
The motivation for this ecological model analysis within
the ecological-economic analysis of this paper was that the
economics has two effects in our system: rst the cost of
a mowing regime determines the proportion of meadow area
in the landscape that adopts this mowing regime (Fig. 2), and
second the choices of the individual farmers (which depend
on costs and payments) affect the spatial arrangement of
the promoted meadows. In the analysis of this section we
have considered only the rst effect of economics: the total
promoted meadow area. In the following Section 5 we will,
among other, focus on the second effect: the spatial distribu-
tion of promoted meadows.
5. The ecological-economic model
5.1. The cost-effective land-use measure
We now turn to the ecological-economic model to identify
the cost-effective mowing regime, i.e. the mowing regime
that achieves the highest ecological benet for a given
Fig. 3 The occupancy as obtained from the ecological
model component as a function of the mowing regime. The
occupancy is given by the colour on a linear scale where
white colour represents a value of one and black colour a
value of zero. Other details as in Fig. 2.
180 B I O L O G I C A L C O N S E R VAT I O N 1 4 0 ( 2 0 0 7 ) 1 7 4 1 8 6
Author's personal copy
conservation budget. The analysis considers the cost assess-
ment and the ecological model component as well as the
structure of the landscape with the different sizes and loca-
tions of the meadows.
The optimisation is carried out for 20 different budget
sizes. In order to have a higher resolution at low budget sizes
we increase the budgets in a quadratic manner as B = 1000 n
2