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Equity Research

December 21, 2009 United States of America


Technology
Intel Corp. (INTC - US$ 19.07) 1-Overweight Semiconductors
Recommendation Change Tim Luke
1.212.526.4993
Valuation Low, Ests Up, Move to 1-OW timothy.luke@barcap.com
BCI, New York
Investment Conclusion
‰ Following a period of sig underperf. relative to both
EPS (US$) (FY Dec)
the NASDAQ & Semi Group, we blv it may be time
to revisit INTC given solid end mkt, upward bias to 2008 2009 2010 % Change
est & intriguing val. at just 12x CY10 EPS of $1.60 Actual Old New St. Est. Old New St. Est. 2009 2010
vs 5 yr avg 16x and trough 11x. We edge ests for 1Q 0.25A 0.11A 0.11A 0.11A 0.34E 0.35E 0.33E -56% 218%
4Q09 & CY10 up & move rating to 1-OW. We see 2Q 0.28A 0.18A 0.18A -0.07A 0.35E 0.35E 0.32E -36% 94%
upside to at least $24 or just 15x CY10 est $1.60 3Q 0.35A 0.33A 0.33A 0.33A 0.41E 0.42E 0.39E -6% 27%
w/support at $18. Sector view remains 2-Neutral. 4Q 0.04A 0.44E 0.45E 0.37E 0.47E 0.48E 0.45E 1025% 7%
Year 0.92A 1.07E 1.08E 0.72E 1.58E 1.60E 1.46E 17% 48%
P/E 17.7 11.9
Summary
‰ Expanding Mkt, Enterprise May Bal Margin,
FTC, AMD Concerns; NB mkt grwth encouraging Market Data Financial Summary
& potential Enterprise refresh spurred by Nehalem
may support Server outlook & GM into CY10. Market Cap (Mil.) 111758 Revenue TTM (Mil.) 32784.0
‰ Higher End Est Edge Up; Look for solid 4Q09 w/ Dividend Yield 3.52
ests edging to rev +8.5%, 62.5% GM & EPS $0.45 52 Week Range 21.27 - 12.05
vs cons rev +7.8% & 62% GM. Our seasonal 1Q
rev -8.6% & EPS $0.35 may prove conserv. CY10
rev and EPS move to $39.3B and $1.60 from
$38.8B/ $1.58. Introduce new FY11 EPS of $1.73.
‰ New Products, CES Likely Positive; Blv new
releases of Pinetrail for Atom this wk, Arrandale & Stock Overview
Clarksdake at CES on Jan 7 & results/ guide on Reuters
INTEL CORP. - 12 / 1 8 / 2 00 9 INTC
Jan 14 may support sentiment. Bloomberg INTC
‰ FTC Issues; Consider recent FTC case 20
ADR
highlighting GPU mkt may be lengthy but blv
monetary payment unlikely.
16

Stock Rating Target Price


New: 1-Overweight New: US$ 24.00 12

Volum e
Old: 2-Equal Weight Old: US$ 24.00
100M

Sector View: 2-Neutral


Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Lehm anLive

Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) ON PAGE 11 AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING


ON PAGE 12
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Equity Research
Summary; Valuation Low; Ests Up, Move to 1-OW

Time to Revisit; Following a period of significant underperformance relative to both the NASDAQ and the Semi Group, we believe it may
be time to revisit the shares of MPU giant Intel given seemingly solid end market conditions, an upward bias to estimates and an intriguing
valuation at just 12x our CY10 EPS estimate of $1.60 versus a 5-year average of 16x and trough of 11x. We edge our 4Q09 and CY10
estimate upwards and move our rating to 1-OW from 2-EW. We see upside to a target price of at least $24 or just 15x CY10 of $1.60 with
support at $18. Our sector view remains 2-Neutral.

While we recognize end market sell thru may remain a key area of focus for investors, we believe recent weakness in Intel’s shares on
concerns of peaking gross margins and FTC investigations in the graphics arena may be overdone just as core business trends appear to
be improving with potential for a corporate recovery cycle in 2010 to further support end markets. We see an improved overall PC
enviroment, strong product roadmap with Westmere product refresh in 2010, and solid execution positioning Intel to outperform in coming
months after a period of underperformance. We highlight that in the last three months, Intel shares have traded down around 2.7% vs.
th th
NASDAQ composite up around 10.1% in the same period (September 18 – December 18 ).

Expanding Market, Enterprise Cycle May Balance Margin, FTC, AMD Concerns; We recognize that Intel's gross margins are at the
upper end of the cyclical range, and acknowledge a changing competitive landscape with the AMD settlement, the FTC probing the graphics
arena and ARM based offerings targeting the notebook area, however, we consider notebook market growth appears encouraging (recent
checks, reseller, OEM and disti updates) and a potential Enterprise refresh spurred by Nehalem (as suggested by reseller and CIO checks)
may support the server outlook and margins into CY10.

Higher End Estimates Edge Upwards; Near-term, based on recent checks we look for a solid 4Q09 with our estimates edging to +8.5%
$10.2B sales and 62.5% GM and EPS of $0.45 vs consensus of +7.8% or $10.1B and 62% GM and we believe our broadly seasonal -8.6%
1Q revenues and $0.35 EPS vs consensus EPS of $0.33 may still prove conservative depending on holiday sell-thru.

New Products, CES Likely Positive; We believe new releases of Pinetrail for Atom this week, Arrandale and Clarksdake at CES on Jan
7th for notebooks and desktops, (along with Nehalem EX ramp in servers) and results and guidance on Jan 14th may support sentiment.

FTC Issues/Modest SoC Expectations; We consider that the recent FTC case highlighting the Graphics market, may be a lengthy process
and lead to NVIDIA receieving a new license but we believe monetary payments are unlikely. In addition, we consider that SoC progress in
consumer and wireless handsets may be modest in the near to medium term but with encouraging CPU market conditions, generally solid
execution and a valuation at just 12x CY10 and 11x our new CY11 initial estimate of $1.73 we believe the shares may move upwards from
current ranges.

Selective View For Semis For CY10/Product Cycle/Sales Growth Focus; As we look at our Semi group heading into CY10, we consider
that after the dramatic group wide beta move up in CY09 where companies starting the year with weakest margins and balance sheets
offered the most incremental upside, investors may be more selective focusing on companies with strong product cycles and competitive
positioning offering incremental sales growth. With Nehalem and Arrandale, we place Intel in this group along with names such as
Broadcom (1-OW), Cavium (1-OW) and Qualcomm (1-OW). In addition, at just 12x CY10 we consider that Intel offers some more defensive
support should the broader market prove challenging. We see strong support likely around the $18 level, with upside to the $24 to $25
range or 15x to 16x CY10 estimates in line with the 5-year average multiple of 16x.

Laterals, Stay With AMD, MU; In terms of laterals across semis, we have retained our positive view on MPU and graphics challenger AMD
while recognizing upside potential post the recent sharp move upwards may be more limited. We consider AMD may now be poised to see
the structural benefits of the Globalfoundries deconsolidation coupled with the fundamental lift from improved products and solid near term
sales and margin progress. We are using a $10 price target for AMD or around 1.1x CY10 Sales of $5.8B. For Micron (1-OW) in memory we
believe buoyant PC growth coupled with tight supply should underpin a favorable backdrop with improved earnings likely this week on
Tuesday (12/22). For NVIDIA in graphics we clearly see sentiment boosted by the FTC process against Intel. In addition, capacity remains
constrained with Tegra and Tesla offering longer term opportunities, however, at present given limited visibility on Tegra's potential ramp we
maintain our 2-EW rating.

REVISITING INTEL

Improved PC End Market, Semi Vendors Highlight Solid Order Trends to Date in 4Q with Potential Firmer 1Q2010
We believe general trends to date for microprocessor giant Intel remains encouraging for 4Q09 and believe outlook for core computing
remains solid with new Westmere offerings gaining solid interest with around 40 - 60 design wins currently in the mobile space.
During two days of presentations at Barclays Capital Global Technology Conference December 8th and 9th, leading semiconductor players
highlighted solid order trends to date in 4Q09 and some potential for firmer than seasonal 1Q2010 trends given what appears to be

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moderate inventory levels. While 4Q09 sell thru remains key, we remain encouraged by strong consumption data by third party research
firm NPD suggesting solid PC sales through November with total PC units up +51% y/y in November (versus +20% y/y in October) helped
by strong demand for Windows 7. OEM, distributor & semiconductor players continue to describe channel inventory levels as modest.

Expect 4Q Ahead; Margin a Key Focus


Intel guided solid December revenues of $10.1B at the midpoint (+/-$400M) up +7.6% QoQ in line with its 10 year average historical
seasonal increase. Intel expects to see a significant improvement in gross margin in Q4 to 62% at the mid point (+/- 3%) from 57.8% in
September attributed to a 3 percentage point positive impact from qualification of 32nm products & previously written off products (split
evenly between the two factors we believe), 1 percentage point impact from higher CPU sales, and 1 percentage point impact from lower
under utilization capacity charges. Management commented that it is currently running utilizations at around the 80-90% range and expects
to see lower costs, improved thru put times, and better yields as they ramp 32nm products.

While risks remain with AMD likely to gain slight share in the notebook arena and gross margins at the upper end of historical range, we
believe our new higher end estimates are achievable. We have edged our estimates for Intel’s 4Q09 to sales of +8.5% at $10.2 billion and
gross margin edging to 62.5% with EPS of at least $0.45 vs. prior EPS of $0.44. Street estimates $0.37 including the payment to AMD of
$1.25 billion.

Expect Seasonal 1Q2010; Margin Could be Conservative


For 1Q2010 we look for broadly seasonal trends with sales of $9.3 billion (-8.6% QoQ), gross margins of 59%, and EPS of $0.35. Our
CY2010 estimates edge up with revenues of $39.3 billion vs $38.8 billion prior, gross margins of 60.1% and EPS of $1.60 vs $1.58 prior.

Barclays Capital Estimates vs. Consensus


Revenues 4Q09E 1Q10E FY09 FY10 FY11
Barclays Capital (Old) $10,100 $9,191 $34,658 $38,829 NA
Barclays Capital (New) $10,187 $9,311 $34,745 $39,298 $42,087
Consensus $10,146 $9,246 $34,699 $38,726 $40,867
GM
Barclays Capital (Old) 62.0% 59.0% 54.8% 60.1% NA
Barclays Capital (New) 62.5% 59.0% 55.0% 60.1% 59.3%
Consensus 62.1% 58.6% 54.8% 59.6% 59.2%
Operating Margins
Barclays Capital (Old) 32.7% 28.1% 23.0% 30.2% NA
Barclays Capital (New) 33.4% 28.4% 23.3% 30.3% 30.5%
Consensus 27.4% 27.5% 16.7% 28.9% 33.3%
EPS (excl Options)
Barclays Capital (Old) $0.48 $0.39 $1.24 $1.76 NA
Barclays Capital (New) $0.50 $0.40 $1.25 $1.78 $1.92
Consensus NA NA NA NA NA
EPS (incl Options)
Barclays Capital (Old) $0.44 $0.34 $1.07 $1.58 NA
Barclays Capital (New) $0.45 $0.35 $1.08 $1.60 $1.73
Consensus $0.37 $0.33 $0.71 $1.47 $1.59
Source: Thomson, Barclays Capital
Note: Consensus EPS may include the impact of 1x payment of $1.25 billion to AMD for F4Q

Solid Execution on 32nm ramp, Nehalem and Improving Enterprise May Potentially Extend Gross Margins
Intel posted solid 3Q results and guided robust 4Q guidance that featured a substantial increase in gross margins to 62% - a level not
reached since 4Q03. While we recognize some investor unease around potentially peaking gross margins with management endorsing a
50% to 60% normal range, solid execution on 32nm ramp with lower costs and improved thru-put, strong traction of Nehalem servers and
potentially improving Enterprise and low inventory levels may extend improved margins.

Intel has delivered solid execution on the “tock-tock” cadence with predictable continued development with 2 year product cycles. Intel is on
track to deliver the next "tick" 32nm Westmere products in 4Q09 and "tock" Sandy Bridge on 32nm in 2010 then on 22nm in 2011.
Management has highlighted that they expect a rapid ramp of 32nm at 1.5x the rate of 45nm production. We believe Intel may benefit from

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lower costs as Intel refreshes it product portfolio with Westmere on 32nm. We see a richer product mix with Westmere which should help
ASPs marginally as Intel launches microprocessors with integrated graphics Arrandale in notebooks and Clarkdale in desktops in 4Q09.

Intel's currently low inventory (at 57 days vs.10 yr historical average of 74 days) should allow Intel to run fabs at least at their current
utilization rates of 80-90% as they aim to build inventory in 4Q supporting margins. We believe 1Q margin may also have the potential to
exceed conservative expectations of 58.6% should sell through remain solid. Costs should also come down as they ramp on 32nm and see
yields and thru put times improve. Intel has indicated that thru-put times have been cut in half transitioning from 45nm to 32nm.

We believe that microprocessor leader Intel is likely to be a key beneficiary of a recovery in enterprise spending as we believe the server
market is likely to favor Intel on solid interest of Intel's Nehalem server offering. While we see solid traction of Nehalem EP, this should be
followed by Westmere EP in the fastest growing 2-socket space in early 2010 and Nehalem EX in the high end in 4Q09. We believe Intel’s
ability to post strong margins at the higher end of historical range despite the lack of Enterprise SKUs is somewhat encouraging. We note
that financial institutions account for about 15% to 20% of server revenues for Intel in our estimates.

Intel Days of Inventory vs. Average

110

100

90
Days of Inventory

80 5 year avg 74 days

70
10 year avg 69 days
60

50

40
3Q93

3Q94
1Q95

3Q96
1Q97
3Q97

1Q98
3Q98
1Q99
3Q99
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03

1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07

1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q94

3Q95
1Q96

Source: Company reports & Barclays Capital

Intel Gross Margins and Operating Margins

70%
Ests
-->
60%
Gross
Margins
50%
Average GM

40%
Operating
Margins
30% Average OM

20%

10%

0%
1Q10E

3Q10E
1Q00

3Q00

1Q01

3Q01

1Q02

3Q02

1Q03

3Q03

1Q04

3Q04

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

1Q07

3Q07

1Q08

3Q08

1Q09

3Q09

Source: Company reports & Barclays Capital

Expect Flattish Capex in 2010 & Tight Opex Control


While high levels of capital spending have been a key area of concern, Intel has guided capital expenditures at around $4.5B plus/minus
$100M for the full year 2009 down from prior guidance of $4.7B due to improved factory efficiencies. We would continue to look for flattish to

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slightly higher capex for CY2010. Management has highlighted the high level of tool re-use moving from 45nm to 32nm with 50-70% of tools
re-used.

Separately, Intel has done an impressive job in managing opex in our view. While further cuts in spending are not expected, spending as a
percent of revenue is expected to continue to decline as revenue grows. Intel's R&D + MGA combined declined from 35.2% in Q109 to
31.8% in Q209 to 29% in Q309 and this is despite the shift of some engineers from cogs into the R&D line during the qualification process.
Intel guided operating expenses (MG&A and R&D) in 4Q to $2.9B (+5% QoQ) due to higher revenue and profit dependant spending
resulting in full year opex of $10.7B. We are encouraged by management’s tight opex control and see MG&A and R&D combined declining
as a percentage of revenue to 29% in 3Q vs. 32% in 2Q despite the Wind River acquisition and expect spending to remain flat as a
percentage of revenue in 4Q. Intel’s operating leverage has resulted in significant improvements in operating margins from 18% in 2Q09 to
27.5% in 3Q. We believe operating margins in the low 30% range in 4Q is achievable.

SoC development will leverage CPU Technologies; Expect Progress at CES


We remain encouraged by Intel's technology leadership and ability to scale down Moore's law by applying unconventional technologies
such as high-k metal gate to deliver the performance, power, and economics behind System-on-Chip design. Management has highlighted
a view that the company's two year manufacturing leadership vs. rivals is poised to extend with 32nm, 22nm and then 15nm. As the market
continues to shift towards mobility, Intel is increasing its focus on the SoC market taking advantage of its Atom architecture and we remain
impressed with Intel management's focus on expanding outside of the core PC market in growth areas of Embedded, Consumer
Electronics, and MIDs. Intel recently launched its 45nm SoC codenamed Sodaville for CE where Intel expects to penetrate the set top box
and digital TV market and where it currently has zero market share. We expect SoC to be a main focus for Intel at the Consumer Electronics
Show in Las Vegas Jan 7 – 10th 2010 where we expect to hear progress on Sodaville, Jasper Forest for Embedded and Lincroft 45nm SoC
for MIDs. We expect Intel to launch its 32nm SoC Medfield platform sometime in 2011 allowing Intel to penetrate the Handheld market
although highly competitive with slightly lower ASP and gross margin profile relative to core CPU business. We expect a potential
th th
announcement in wireless at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in February 15 to 18 2010.

Cautious Overall Expectations from SoCs in Consumer & Wireless Handheld in Near to Medium Term
In general, however, we retain relatively modest expectations for Intel’s SoC initiatives in the consumer and wireless handheld space in the
near to medium term. We recognize that developing products in areas that may require signal expertise with generally smaller volume runs
with lower average selling prices and lower margins may be somewhat challenging. We do not look for SoCs in the wireless and consumer
to marginally add to lift Intel’s sales and its multiple in the near to medium term.

Intel Product Roadmap

2007 2008 2009


2010 & Beyond
1H07 2H07 1H08 2H08 1H09 2H09
Yorkfield (3Q07) Lynnfield (45nm) 3Q09
Desktops Bloomfield (4Q08) Gulftown (32nm) 2010
Wolfdale (3Q07) Clarkdale (32nm) 4Q09
Pinetrail/ Pineview (45nm) 1Q10
Santa Rosa Refresh (1Q08) Montevina (3Q08) Clarksfield (45nm) 3Q09
Stealey (3Q07) Moorestown/Lincroft SoC (45nm)
Notebooks Santa Rosa (2Q07) Montevina Refresh (2Q) Arrandale (32nm) 4Q09
Gilo (4Q07) "Atom"/ Menlow (2Q08) 2010 Medfield /Saltwell SoC (32nm)
Calpella NB platform
2011
Caneland (3Q07) Westmere 1P (1Q10)
Xeon (1Q07) Dunnington (3Q08) Nehalem EX (4Q09)
Servers Penryn (4Q07) Harpertown (MP, 1H08) Nehalem EP (1Q09) Westmere EP, EX (2010)
Core 2 Quad & Duo 1P Nehalem (4Q08)
Harpertown (UP, DP, 4Q07) Sandy Bridge (2010)

Source: Company reports & Barclays Capital

Notebooks; Strong Interest with 40-60 Design wins in Mobile


In general, Intel’s execution has continued to be impressive in terms of releases and performance metrics. Given Intel’s dominance in the
notebook space with around 88% unit share for CY09 in our estimate, we consider AMD is likely to gain some share supported by an
improved product roadmap in the value or “mainstream” segment. However, we believe outlook for core computing remains solid for Intel
with new Westmere offerings gaining solid interest with around 40 - 60 design wins currently in the mobile space. Intel recently introduced at
IDF its 45nm core i7 processor called Clarksfield for mobile (4 cores / 8 threads). Intel expects to bring this technology to the masses next
year in form of Arrandale 32nm Westmere CPU with 45nm graphics chipset & integrated memory controller on its Calpella notebook
platform.

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Solid Traction on Nehalem Improves Server Outlook
In the Enterprise Server segment, we expect Intel to see uplift from a refresh opportunity. Intel estimates over 12 million servers are over
four years old and the latest Xeon servers with lower power consumption and higher performance may enable IT managers to have recoup
their investments in as little as nine months in some cases. We believe Intel should benefit in terms of both ASPs as well as gross margins
as the Enterprise reinitiates spending on IT in the back half of 2010. We note that rival AMD aims to increase its focus on the fastest
growing 2-socket server market with less competitive positioning in the 4-socket space. At the same time, we would expect Nehalem to
expand its profile in the higher end of the market expanding its share over Sun and IBM in high end systems.

With respect to the Enterprise roadmap, in the high-end Mission Critical market (9000 series), Intel is shipping the 9100 Itanium family
series with the new Tukwila processor based on Boxboro chipset on track for 2010. Beyond that, Tukwila is to be followed by Poulson and
Kittson processor later in 2010/2011.

For the Xeon 7000 series core enterprise space, the 45nm 6 core Dunnington is shipping and the Nehalem EX using the Boxboro chipset
should launch in 1Q2010 aiming to compete at the high end with the likes of Sun and IBM. A 32nm Westmere EX should follow Nehalem
EX. Nehalem EX is a 4 socket platform with 8 cores per processor using 64 threads (2 threads per core), Intel’s scalable memory
interconnect with buffers up to 1 TB memory support, scalable up to 8+ sockets.

In the Efficient performance mid tier area, Tylersberg EP a 45nm Xeon 5500 is shipping with Nehalem EP displaying a very fast ramp with
cross over a month earlier than targeted in July vs. August. We note Intel has seen strength in its dual core Nehalem server processer in 3Q
as reflected in Mercury Research MPU data which shows Intel’s server units up 16% QoQ to gain slight share of 0.6% to 90.6%. Nehalem
EP should transition to the Westmere EP processor in 2010 (refresh of two socket platform with 6 cores and double threading). We highlight
that the Westmere EP is socket compatible.

Atom to Follow Tick Tock Model; Pine Trail Adds Graphics


Intel is on track to launch Menlow's predecessor Moorestown on 45nm in mid 2010 and Medfield in 2011 enabling penetration into smaller
devices such as handhelds. Intel expects to deliver a 50x improvement in Moorestown over Menlow with a highly integrated SoC Lincroft
microprocessor. Within the same power envelop, Moorestown delivers significantly better performance. Meanwhile, next generation Atom
platform for netbooks to be launched today, Pine Trail, is expected to deliver lower overall bill-of-materials, further reduction in power, and
improvement in overall performance by further integration from a three-chip to a two-chip solution. Pine Trail consists of next generation
Atom codenamed Pineview and Tiger Point chipset connected over a DMI. Continuing the two year tick tock cadence, Intel expects to
launch 45nm SoC Lincroft core codenamed Bonnell then 32nm SoC Saltwell.

Graphics; Larrabee Version 1 Scrapped, but Focus Continues on Multi-core Processing


Separately, Intel has decided to scrap plans to launch its first discrete graphics chip based on Larrabee. Instead of launching Intel's first
stand-alone discrete graphics chip, Intel's Larrabee graphics processor will initially appear as a software development platform. While the
timeline of Larrabee's launch has not yet been outlined, Intel demoed Larrabee at its recent Intel Developer Forum in San Francisco in
September 2009. Larrabee, originally expected to appear in 2008, has experienced some significant delays and was expected to eventually
launch sometime in 2010. Larrabee was slated to compete in the stand-alone discrete graphics market with the likes of Nvidia and AMD.
While we believe the setback may negatively impact sentiment, Intel sees Larrabee as a strategic opportunity to position it as Intel's
integrated graphics product for its future generation CPU + GPU core. We believe Intel is likely to continue investments in graphics and
multi core parallel processing. Our checks suggests Intel's first chip with graphics integrated onto the CPU remain on track to be released in
4Q09 with Arrandale in Notebooks and Clarkdale in Desktops.

FTC Process; Graphics Dispute with NVIDIA and AMD


In the last week Intel’s shares have been pressured by the FTC’s allegations of Intel abusing a dominant position in the graphics market as
well as CPU. Our broad view here is that ultimately Intel may grant NVIDIA a license to manufacture chips that are interoperable with Intel’s
CPUs. In addition, as with AMD a revised set of business practices may be established and the agencies may closely monitor Intel’s pricing
practices. However, it does not appear that the FTC is asking Intel to pay a fine. In addition, we do not expect meaningful impact on Intel’s
market share in the integrated graphics arena. Meanwhile over time, despite the Larrabee setback, we would expect Intel to continue to
invest in the discrete graphics and 4P GPU.

AMD May Edge Some Share in Notebooks; Aim to Monitor Fusion


As per our earlier reports, we would expect AMD to make some progress in market share in the mainstream notebooks segment. We also
believe that recent AMD settlement and the establishment of new business practices with quarterly reviews and arbitration may lead to

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some lift in AMD’s overall share. However, at current multiples given solid near term trends for Intel and a steady expansion of the CPU
TAM, we believe concerns are reflected.

MPU Share Data Suggests Intel Server Traction Remains Solid;


We highlight that based on recent MPU market share data reported in 3Q by Mercury, Intel gained overall MPU market share due to traction
in desktop and server offerings. Data reported by Mercury suggests that Intel’s market share in desktops increased to 73.6% in 3Q09 from
71.9% in the prior quarter. In servers, data reported by Mercury suggests that Intel’s market share increased to 90.6%, up .6% from the
prior quarter. We believe Intel gained share due to its Nehalem EP offering, and we expect its higher-end 4P Nehalem offering (EX) to gain
traction as enterprise IT spending activity picks up in the back half of 2010.

In looking at the overall MPU market for CY10, we forecast microprocessor unit shipments to grow 14% year-over-year to 385 million units
led by notebooks up 26% year-over-year to 215 million units. We now model server MPU shipments +14% year-over-year to 14 million units
as we expect some recovery of corporate spending to help in the back half of 2010. We highlight that this is still below 2008 levels of 14.4
million units. We expect desktop MPUs to increase 1% year-over-year to 157 million units in CY10. Excluding Atom, total MPUs are likely to
grow 13% year-over-year in CY10. In terms of market share, we expect Intel’s MPU market share to increase by .8% to 82%, led by
strength in Notebooks and Servers, where we expect market share to increase by .2% and 1% to 88.5% and 91.2%, respectively.

GPU Share Data Suggests Share Gains in Integrated Graphics Led by Chipsets
We highlight that in graphics, Intel dominates this arena with integrated graphics offerings. The integrated graphics market was up 19%
quarter-over-quarter increasing from 73.3 million units to 86.9 million units. On a year-over-year basis, integrated graphics shipments grew
13% as consumer buying trends favored lower-end desktops and notebooks with integrated graphics chips. NVDA lost share in this
segment from 18.6% in 2Q to 13.5% in 3Q. Intel gained the majority of NVDA's market share loss with their market share climbing 3.7% to
72.3% due to strong mobile and desktop shipments of chipsets. We note that Intel reported a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase in chipset
sales in 3Q while units increased 25% quarter-over-quarter per Mercury Research estimates.

GPU Market Trends


Total GPU (M) Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309
DT Discrete 20.6 21.5 24.9 26.1 24.2 18.6 21.9 15.2 16.3 17.7 20.0
NB Discrete 5.3 6.5 8.2 9.8 8.8 9.1 13.6 8.7 6.8 9.5 12.1
DT Integrated 32.6 36.3 43.9 41.4 38.1 40.0 40.3 22.1 26.9 40.0 45.4
NB Integrated 18.2 19.8 24.8 26.8 24.7 26.4 36.6 26.3 24.7 33.2 41.5
Total (NB+DT) Integrated 50.8 56.1 68.7 68.2 62.7 66.5 76.9 48.4 51.6 73.3 86.9
Total (NB+DT) Discrete 25.9 28.0 33.1 35.9 33.0 27.7 35.5 23.9 23.0 27.2 32.1
Total Desktop (Discrete+ Integ 53.2 57.8 68.7 67.5 62.3 58.6 62.2 37.3 43.1 57.7 65.4
Total Notebook (Discrete+ Inte 23.5 26.3 33.0 36.6 33.5 35.5 50.3 35.0 31.5 42.7 53.6
Total 76.7 84.1 101.8 104.1 95.7 94.1 112.4 72.3 74.6 100.4 118.9

Market Share Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309
DT Discrete 27% 26% 24% 25% 25% 20% 19% 21% 22% 18% 17%
NB Discrete 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 12% 12% 9% 9% 10%
DT Integrated 42% 43% 43% 40% 40% 43% 36% 31% 36% 40% 38%
NB Integrated 24% 24% 24% 26% 26% 28% 33% 36% 33% 33% 35%
Total (NB+DT) Integrated 66% 67% 68% 66% 66% 71% 68% 67% 69% 73% 73%
Total (NB+DT) Discrete 34% 33% 32% 34% 34% 29% 32% 33% 31% 27% 27%
Total Desktop (Discrete+ Integ 69% 69% 68% 65% 65% 62% 55% 52% 58% 57% 55%
Total Notebook (Discrete+ Inte 31% 31% 32% 35% 35% 38% 45% 48% 42% 43% 45%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Source: Mercury Research, Barclays Capital estimates

PCs; Expect Stronger Overall Growth in CY2010, Corporate Refresh Cycle in 2H2010
Looking at end-markets, Barclays Capital IT Hardware analyst, Ben Reitzes, expects overall PC unit growth of 11% year-over-year for CY10
(excluding servers), which includes notebook growth of 21%, a desktop decline of 1%, and 38 million netbooks. Momentum in CY10 is
likely to be driven by Windows 7 upgrades in the corporate sector, but likely not until 2H10. Our IT Hardware analyst expects to see more
corporate upgrades in 2010 driven by an aging installed base, offset by some adverse impacts from desktop virtualization, which will likely
be more impactful on PC shipments in CY11 but with some momentum starting in CY10.

7
Equity Research
Our IT Hardware team forecasts growth for the server market of around +8% YoY in CY2010. From a semiconductor perspective, an
improved server market is likely to be viewed as constructive for microprocessor leader Intel given the current Nehalem based upgrade
cycle as well as for AMD to some extent. In CY2010, our forecast calls for a 14% YoY increase in server unit shipments to 14 million units.
We highlight that this is off a lower base with CY09 down approximately 15% in our estimates. We expect corporate sentiment to improve in
the back half of 2010 and believe Intel is well positioned to benefit from pent up demand for Nehalem Servers.

Barclays Capital PC Estimates Barclays Capital MPU Estimates


PC Shipment 2007 2008 2009E 2010E Microprocessors 2007 2008 2009E 2010E
Atom Netbook 0 11 30 38 Atom MPUs 0 13 36 46
YoY Growth NM NM 181% 29% YoY Growth NM NM 179% 27%
Notebooks (ex Atom) 107 133 136 163 Notebooks (ex Atom) 109 134 134 169
YoY Growth 34% 23% 3% 20% YoY Growth 33% 23% 0% 26%
Overall Notebooks 107 143 166 201 Overall Notebooks 109 147 170 215
YoY Growth 34% 33% 16% 21% YoY Growth 33% 35% 16% 26%
Desktops 152 145 127 126 Desktops 161 158 154 157
YoY Growth 5% -5% -12% -1% YoY Growth 5% -2% -2% 1%
Servers 8 8 6 7 Servers 14 14 12.2 14
YoY Growth 9% 3% -20% 8% YoY Growth 9% 4% -15% 14%
Total PC 267 296 299 333 Total MPU 284 319 337 385
YoY Growth 15% 11% 1% 11% YoY Growth 15% 12% 6% 14%
Total PC (ex Atom) 267 285 270 295 Total MPU (ex Atom) 284 306 300 339
YoY Growth 15% 7% -5% 10% YoY Growth 15% 8% -2% 13%

Source: Barclays Capital (IT Hardware Analyst, Ben Reitzes) and Mercury Research

Estimates and Valuation


Based on recent checks we look for a solid 4Q09 with our estimates edging to +8.5% $10.2 sales and 62.5% GM and EPS of $0.45 vs
consensus of +7.8% or $10.1 and 62% GM and we believe our broadly seasonal -8.6% 1Q10 revenues and $0.35 EPS vs. consensus
$0.33 may still prove conservative depending on holiday sell-thru. For CY10, we model revenues and EPS of $39.3B and $1.60,
respectively. We also take this opportunity to introduce our CY11 estimates, where we model revenues and EPS of $42.1B and $1.73,
respectively.

Our price target of $24 is based on 15x our CY10 EPS estimate of $1.60. We highlight that on a 5-year average basis, Intel has historically
traded at around 16x, with a trough of 11x and peak of 21x. We see strong support likely around the $18 level.

Intel 5-Yr Historical Fwd P/E Chart (based on consensus) Intel 5-Yr Historical EV/Sales Chart
INTC P/ E Ratio Min Max Average INTC EV/ Sales Min Max Average

6.0x
20x 5.5x

5.0x
18x
4.5x

4.0x
16x
3.5x

3.0x
14x
2.5x

2.0x
12x
1.5x

10x 1.0x
12/ 17/ 04
02/ 25/ 05

05/ 06/ 05
07/ 15/ 05
09/ 23/ 05
12/ 02/ 05

02/ 10/ 06
04/ 21/ 06

06/ 30/ 06
09/ 08/ 06
11/ 17/ 06

01/ 26/ 07
04/ 06/ 07

06/ 15/ 07
08/ 24/ 07
11/ 02/ 07
01/ 11/ 08

03/ 21/ 08
05/ 30/ 08

08/ 08/ 08
10/ 17/ 08

12/ 26/ 08
03/ 06/ 09
05/ 15/ 09
07/ 24/ 09

10/ 02/ 09
12/ 11/ 09
12/ 17/ 04

02/ 25/ 05
05/ 06/ 05

07/ 15/ 05
09/ 23/ 05
12/ 02/ 05

02/ 10/ 06
04/ 21/ 06

06/ 30/ 06
09/ 08/ 06

11/ 17/ 06
01/ 26/ 07
04/ 06/ 07

06/ 15/ 07
08/ 24/ 07

11/ 02/ 07
01/ 11/ 08
03/ 21/ 08

05/ 30/ 08
08/ 08/ 08

10/ 17/ 08
12/ 26/ 08

03/ 06/ 09
05/ 15/ 09
07/ 24/ 09

10/ 02/ 09
12/ 11/ 09

Source: FactSet

8
Equity Research

Intel Financial Model ($ in Millions, except per share data)


Fiscal 2008 Fiscal 2009E Fiscal 2010E Fiscal 2011E Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal
Fiscal Year-End: December Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

Revenues $9,673 $9,470 $10,217 $8,226 $7,145 $8,024 $9,389 $10,187 $9,311 $9,255 $9,977 $10,755 $10,002 $9,902 $10,675 $11,507 $37,586 $34,745 $39,298 $42,087
Q/Q -9.7% -2.1% 7.9% -19.5% -13.1% 12.3% 17.0% 8.5% -8.6% -0.6% 7.8% 7.8% -7.0% -1.0% 7.8% 7.8%
Y/Y 9.3% 9.1% 1.3% -23.2% -26.1% -15.3% -8.1% 23.8% 30.3% 15.3% 6.3% 5.6% 7.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% -2.0% -7.6% 13.1% 7.1%
Cost of Goods 4,466 4,221 4,198 3,857 3,884 3,945 3,985 3,820 3,818 3,795 3,941 4,141 4,201 4,159 4,270 4,488 16,742 15,634 15,694 17,118
Gross Profit $5,207 $5,249 $6,019 $4,369 $3,261 $4,079 $5,404 $6,367 $5,493 $5,461 $6,036 $6,614 $5,801 $5,743 $6,405 $7,019 $20,844 $19,111 $23,605 $24,969

R&D $1,467 $1,468 $1,471 $1,316 $1,317 $1,303 $1,430 $1,500 $1,470 $1,470 $1,520 $1,570 $1,540 $1,530 $1,580 $1,630 $5,722 $5,550 $6,030 $6,280
SG&A $1,349 $1,430 $1,416 $1,263 $1,200 $1,250 $1,320 $1,400 $1,340 $1,340 $1,390 $1,445 $1,385 $1,385 $1,435 $1,490 $5,458 $5,170 $5,515 $5,695
Restructuring & asset impairment $329 $96 $34 $251 $74 $91 $63 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $710 $268 $160 $160
Amortization of Acq. $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $12 $20 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $32 $0 $0
Operating Income $2,062 $2,255 $3,098 $1,539 $670 $1,435 $2,579 $3,407 $2,643 $2,611 $3,086 $3,559 $2,836 $2,788 $3,350 $3,859 $8,954 $8,091 $11,900 $12,834
Gain On Investments ($59) ($109) ($396) ($1,192) ($113) ($69) ($79) ($25) ($15) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($10) ($1,756) ($286) ($45) ($40)
Interest & Other $168.0 $167.0 $131.0 $22.0 $95.0 $31.0 $32.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 $40.0 $45.0 $40.0 $40.0 $45.0 $45.0 $488 $183 $150 $170
Profit Before Taxes $2,171 $2,313 $2,833 $369 $652 $1,397 $2,532 $3,407 $2,658 $2,636 $3,116 $3,594 $2,866 $2,818 $3,385 $3,894 $7,686 $7,988 $12,005 $12,964
Taxes $728 $712 $819 $135 $5 $348 $676 $886 $691 $685 $810 $935 $745 $733 $880 $1,013 $2,394 $1,915 $3,121 $3,371
Net Income $1,443 $1,601 $2,014 $234 $647 $1,049 $1,856 $2,521 $1,967 $1,950 $2,306 $2,660 $2,121 $2,086 $2,505 $2,882 $5,292 $6,073 $8,883 $9,593
Net Income-Ex Options $1,662 $1,844 $2,252 $403 $860 $1,307 $2,111 $2,775 $2,221 $2,203 $2,558 $2,912 $2,373 $2,337 $2,756 $3,133 $6,160 $7,053 $9,895 $10,599
Diluted Common & Equiv Sh (M) 5,879 5,800 5,692 5,623 5,634 5,678 5,616 5,586 5,576 5,566 5,556 5,556 5,546 5,536 5,526 5,526 5,749 5,629 5,564 5,534
EPS - Cont Ops $0.25 $0.28 $0.35 $0.04 $0.11 $0.18 $0.33 $0.45 $0.35 $0.35 $0.42 $0.48 $0.38 $0.38 $0.45 $0.52 $0.92 $1.08 $1.60 $1.73
EPS- Ex Options $0.28 $0.32 $0.40 $0.07 $0.15 $0.23 $0.38 $0.50 $0.40 $0.40 $0.46 $0.52 $0.43 $0.42 $0.50 $0.57 $1.07 $1.25 $1.78 $1.92

Percent of Sales
Gross Margin 53.8% 55.4% 58.9% 53.1% 45.6% 50.8% 57.6% 62.5% 59.0% 59.0% 60.5% 61.5% 58.0% 58.0% 60.0% 61.0% 55.5% 55.0% 60.1% 59.3%
R&D 15.2% 15.5% 14.4% 16.0% 18.4% 16.2% 15.2% 14.7% 15.8% 15.9% 15.2% 14.6% 15.4% 15.5% 14.8% 14.2% 15.2% 16.0% 15.3% 14.9%
SG&A 13.9% 15.1% 13.9% 15.4% 16.8% 15.6% 14.1% 13.7% 14.4% 14.5% 13.9% 13.4% 13.8% 14.0% 13.4% 12.9% 14.5% 14.9% 14.0% 13.5%
Operating Income 21.3% 23.8% 30.3% 18.7% 9.4% 17.9% 27.5% 33.4% 28.4% 28.2% 30.9% 33.1% 28.4% 28.2% 31.4% 33.5% 23.8% 23.3% 30.3% 30.5%
Depreciation 11.4% 11.0% 10.8% 13.4% 15.4% 15.1% 12.8% 12.7% 11.8% 11.9% 11.0% 10.2% 11.0% 11.1% 10.3% 9.6% 11.6% 13.8% 11.2% 10.5%
Net Income 14.9% 16.9% 19.7% 2.8% 9.1% 13.1% 19.8% 24.7% 21.1% 21.1% 23.1% 24.7% 21.2% 21.1% 23.5% 25.0% 14.1% 17.5% 22.6% 22.8%
Tax Rate 33.5% 30.8% 28.9% 36.6% 0.8% 24.9% 26.7% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 31.1% 24.0% 26.0% 26.0%

Source: Company Data and Barclays Capital estimates

9
Equity Research

Intel Segment Model ($ in Millions, except per share data)


Revenue by Segment Fiscal 2008 Fiscal 2009E Fiscal 2010E Fiscal 2010E Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2E Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E 2008 2009E 2010E 2010E
Digital Enterprise $5,441 $5,373 $5,318 $4,500 $4,009 $4,304 $4,913 $5,145 $4,514 $4,508 $4,835 $5,097 $16,067 $4,824 $4,993 $5,479 $20,632 $18,371 $18,953 $31,363
Microprocessor $4,236 $4,108 $4,069 $3,665 $3,258 $3,418 $3,873 $4,053 $3,531 $3,614 $3,923 $4,130 $15,197 $4,032 $4,185 $4,623 $16,078 $14,602 $15,197 $28,037
Desktop $2,782 $2,524 $2,621 $2,467 $2,200 $2,242 $2,513 $2,600 $2,227 $2,262 $2,441 $2,526 $9,456 $2,497 $2,567 $2,860 $10,394 $9,554 $9,456 $17,380
Server $1,454 $1,584 $1,448 $1,198 $1,058 $1,176 $1,360 $1,454 $1,304 $1,351 $1,482 $1,604 $5,741 $1,535 $1,618 $1,763 $5,684 $5,049 $5,741 $10,658
Chipset, motherboard, other $1,205 $1,265 $1,249 $835 $751 $886 $1,040 $1,092 $983 $894 $912 $967 $870 $792 $808 $856 $4,554 $3,769 $3,756 $3,326

Mobility $3,669 $3,797 $4,681 $3,501 $2,914 $3,481 $4,131 $4,552 $3,935 $4,173 $4,798 $5,284 $14,682 $5,325 $5,688 $6,439 $15,648 $15,078 $18,190 $32,134
Microprocessor $2,726 $2,742 $3,387 $2,584 $2,188 $2,554 $2,924 $3,249 $2,762 $3,082 $3,674 $4,082 $13,599 $4,319 $4,652 $5,330 $11,439 $10,915 $13,599 $27,899
Chipset & other $943 $1,055 $1,294 $917 $726 $927 $1,207 $1,304 $1,173 $1,091 $1,124 $1,202 $1,082 $1,006 $1,037 $1,109 $4,209 $4,164 $4,591 $4,235

Flash memory $497 $245 $170 $150 $150 $170 $235 $250 $290 $250 $225 $230 $290 $250 $225 $230 $1,062 $805 $995 $995
Other $66 $55 $48 $75 $72 $70 $110 $239 $572 $325 $119 $144 -$21,037 -$497 -$231 -$641 $244 $491 $1,160 -$22,406
TOTAL $9,673 $9,470 $10,217 $8,226 $7,145 $8,024 $9,389 $10,187 $9,311 $9,255 $9,977 $10,755 $10,002 $9,902 $10,675 $11,507 $37,586 $34,745 $39,298 $42,087

Revenue QoQ

Digital Enterprise -9% -1% -1% -15% -11% 7% 14% 5% -12% 0% 7% 5% 215% -70% 3% 10%
Microprocessor -6% -3% -1% -10% -11% 5% 13% 5% -13% 2% 9% 5% 268% -73% 4% 10%
Desktop -9% -9% 4% -6% -11% 2% 12% 3% -14% 2% 8% 4% 274% -74% 3% 11%
Server 1% 9% -9% -17% -12% 11% 16% 7% -10% 4% 10% 8% 258% -73% 5% 9%
Chipset, motherboard, other -18% 5% -1% -33% -10% 18% 17% 5% -10% -9% 2% 6% -10% -9% 2% 6%
Mobility -11% 3% 23% -25% -17% 19% 19% 10% -14% 6% 15% 10% 178% -64% 7% 13%
Microprocessor -9% 1% 24% -24% -15% 17% 15% 11% -15% 12% 19% 11% 233% -68% 8% 15%
Chipset & other -16% 12% 23% -29% -21% 28% 30% 8% -10% -7% 3% 7% -10% -7% 3% 7%
Flash memory -15% -51% -31% -12% 0% 13% 38% 6% 16% -14% -10% 2% 26% -14% -10% 2%
All Other 14% -17% -13% 56% -4% -3% 58% 118% 139% -43% -63% 22% -14680% -98% -53% 177%
TOTAL -9.7% -2% 8% -19% -13% 12% 17% 9% -9% -1% 8% 8% -7% -1% 8% 8%

Revenue YoY

Digital Enterprise 9% 11% -4% -25% -26% -20% -8% 14% 13% 5% -2% -1% 256% 7% 3% 8% -3% -11% 3% 65%
Microprocessor 13% 14% -1% -18% -23% -17% -5% 11% 8% 6% 1% 2% 330% 12% 7% 12% 1% -9% 4% 84%
Desktop 4% 7% -7% -19% -21% -11% -4% 5% 1% 1% -3% -3% 325% 10% 5% 13% -5% -8% -1% 84%
Server 37% 26% 13% -17% -27% -26% -6% 21% 23% 15% 9% 10% 340% 14% 9% 10% 13% -11% 14% 86%
Chipset, motherboard, other -4% 3% -11% -43% -38% -30% -17% 31% 31% 1% -12% -11% -11% -11% -11% -11% -15% -17% 0% -11%

Mobility 11% 15% 18% -15% -21% -8% -12% 30% 35% 20% 16% 16% 273% 28% 19% 22% 7% -4% 21% 77%
Microprocessor 12% 14% 20% -14% -20% -7% -14% 26% 26% 21% 26% 26% 392% 40% 27% 31% 7% -5% 25% 105%
Chipset & other 9% 17% 14% -18% -23% -12% -7% 42% 62% 18% -7% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% 5% -1% 10% -8%
Flash memory 6% -50% -69% -74% -70% -31% 38% 67% 93% 47% -4% -8% 0% 0% 0% 0% -49% -24% 24% 0%
All Other -20% 4% -11% 29% 9% 26% 129% 219% 695% 367% 8% -40% -3776% -253% -295% -544% -1% 101% 136% -2032%

TOTAL 9% 9% 1% -23% -26% -15% -8% 24% 30% 15% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% -2% -8% 13% 7%

Rev Breakdown from Total (%)

Digital Enterprise 56% 57% 52% 55% 56% 54% 52% 51% 48% 49% 48% 47% 161% 49% 47% 48% 55% 53% 48% 80%
Microprocessor 44% 43% 40% 45% 46% 43% 41% 40% 38% 39% 39% 38% 152% 41% 39% 40% 43% 42% 39% 71%
Desktop 29% 27% 26% 30% 31% 28% 27% 26% 24% 24% 24% 23% 95% 25% 24% 25% 28% 27% 24% 44%
Server 15% 17% 14% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 57% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 27%
Chipset, motherboard, other 12% 13% 12% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 12% 11% 10% 8%

Mobility 38% 40% 46% 43% 41% 43% 44% 45% 42% 45% 48% 49% 147% 54% 53% 56% 42% 43% 46% 82%
Microprocessor 28% 29% 33% 31% 31% 32% 31% 32% 30% 33% 37% 38% 136% 44% 44% 46% 30% 31% 35% 71%
Chipset & other 10% 11% 13% 11% 10% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12% 11%
Flash memory 5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3%
All Other 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 6% 4% 1% 1% -210% -5% -2% -6% 1% 1% 3% -57%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 107%

Source: Company Data and Barclays Capital estimates

10
Equity Research

Intel Segment Model ($ in Millions, except per share data)


Fiscal 2008 Fiscal 2009E Fiscal 2010E Fiscal 2011E Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal
Fiscal Year-End: December Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

ASSETS
Cash & Securities 13,692 11,961 12,204 11,843 10,599 11,624 12,930 13,142 13,060 13,114 13,251 13,548 13,866 14,070 14,379 14,870 11,843 13,142 13,548 14,870
Accounts Receivable 2,725 2,399 2,782 1,712 2,086 1,938 2,025 2,289 2,724 2,576 2,624 2,593 2,927 2,756 2,808 2,774 1,712 2,289 2,593 2,774
Inventory - Raw Material 545 580 583 608 380 385 398
Inventory - WIP 1,361 1,355 1,427 1,577 1,448 1,209 1,072
Inventory - Finished Goods 1,366 1,330 1,388 1,559 1,217 1,211 1,020
Total Inventories 3,272 3,265 3,398 3,744 3,045 2,805 2,490 3,274 3,482 3,253 3,291 3,640 3,832 3,565 3,566 3,945 3,744 3,274 3,640 3,945
Other Current Assets 2,375 2,153 3,039 2,572 2,407 2,100 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 2,572 1,802 1,802 1,802
Total Current Assets 22,064 19,778 21,423 19,871 18,137 18,467 19,247 20,507 21,068 20,744 20,968 21,583 22,426 22,193 22,555 23,392 19,871 20,507 21,583 23,392
Net PP&E 16,667 16,723 17,026 17,544 17,815 17,515 17,354 17,220 17,020 16,820 16,620 16,420 16,220 16,020 15,820 15,620 17,544 17,220 16,420 15,620
Mktable Strategic Equity Sec. 530 644 401 352 412 513 766 766 766 766 766 766 766 766 766 766 352 766 766 766
Other LT Investments 4,473 4,651 3,820 2,924 2,513 3,002 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 3,611 2,924 3,611 3,611 3,611
Goodwill and Other Acq. Intang 3,916 3,915 3,924 3,932 3,932 3,932 4,421 4,360 4,296 4,237 4,174 4,113 4,049 3,990 3,927 3,866 3,932 4,360 4,113 3,866
Other Assets 5,737 6,681 6,125 6,092 5,615 5,632 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 5,597 6,092 5,597 5,597 5,597
------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
Total Assets 53,387 52,392 52,719 50,715 48,424 49,061 50,996 52,061 52,358 51,775 51,736 52,090 52,669 52,177 52,276 52,852 50,715 52,061 52,090 52,852
================================ ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
LIAB. & SHRHLDRS' EQUITY
Short-Term Debt 189 175 467 102 31 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 102 23 23 23
Accounts Payable & Accrued Liab. 4,422 4,824 5,247 4,405 3,541 3,856 4,428 3,988 4,615 4,378 4,331 4,323 5,078 4,799 4,692 4,685 4,405 3,988 4,323 4,685
Deferred inc. on disti shipments 643 665 656 463 468 480 602 602 602 602 602 602 602 602 602 602 463 602 602 602
Other Current Liabilities 3,414 2,368 3,698 2,848 2,253 2,719 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,696 2,848 2,696 2,696 2,696
Total Current Liabilities 8,668 8,032 10,068 7,818 6,293 7,079 7,749 7,309 7,936 7,699 7,652 7,644 8,399 8,120 8,013 8,006 7,818 7,309 7,644 8,006
Long-Term Debt 1,990 1,892 1,889 1,886 1,170 1,174 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 2,201 1,886 2,201 2,201 2,201
Other Liabilities 2,069 2,107 1,851 1,923 1,879 1,761 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 1,923 2,013 2,013 2,013
Total Liabilities 12,727 12,031 13,808 11,627 9,342 10,014 11,963 11,523 12,150 11,913 11,866 11,858 12,613 12,334 12,227 12,220 11,627 11,523 11,858 12,220
Shareholders' Equity 40,660 40,361 38,911 39,088 39,082 39,047 39,033 40,538 40,209 39,862 39,870 40,233 40,056 39,843 40,049 40,632 39,088 40,538 40,233 40,632
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
Total Liab. and Equity 53,387 52,392 52,719 50,715 48,424 49,061 50,996 52,061 52,358 51,775 51,736 52,090 52,669 52,177 52,276 52,852 50,715 52,061 52,090 52,852
================================ ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========

Source: Company Data and Barclays Capital estimates

Analyst Certification:
I, Tim Luke, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the
subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

Other Team Members:


Chung, Jennifer (BCI, New York) 1.212.526.3828 jen.chung@barcap.com
Mahtani, Aniel, CFA (BCI, New York) 1.212.526.2021 aniel.mahtani@barcap.com
Keller, Franklin (BCI, New York) 1.212.526.0866 franklin.keller@barcap.com

Company Description:
Intel is the largest manufacturer of semiconductor devices in the world. Its principal products are microprocessors that serve as the CPUs of
personal computers.

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Equity Research

On September 20, 2008, Barclays Capital acquired Lehman Brothers' North American investment banking, capital markets, and private investment
management businesses. All ratings and price targets prior to this date relate to coverage under Lehman Brothers Inc.

Important Disclosures:
Intel Corp. (INTC) US$ 19.07 (17-Dec-2009) 1-Overweight / 2-Neutral
Rating and Price Target Chart:
INTEL CORP.
As of 06-Oct-2009
Currency = USD
32.00

30.00

28.00

26.00

24.00

22.00

20.00

18.00

16.00

14.00

12.00

10.00
10-06 1-07 4-07 7-07 10-07 1-08 4-08 7-08 10-08 1-09 4-09 7-09 10-09
Closing Price Price Target
Recommendation Change Drop Coverage
Source: FactSet
Currency=US$
Date Closing Price Rating Price Target Date Closing Price Rating Price Target
28-Aug-09 20.25 22.00 29-Sep-08 17.27 21.00
15-Jul-09 18.05 19.00 29-Sep-08 17.27 2 -Equal weight
13-May-09 15.13 18.00 08-Sep-08 20.97 24.00
06-Apr-09 15.86 17.00 15-May-08 24.97 26.00
25-Feb-09 13.03 16.00 07-Apr-08 21.75 24.00
16-Jan-09 13.74 15.00 16-Jan-08 19.88 23.00
05-Dec-08 13.29 14.00 17-Oct-07 26.72 30.00
11-Nov-08 13.93 16.00 18-Jul-07 25.06 28.00
13-Oct-08 16.99 20.00 21-Feb-07 20.88 24.00
FOR EXPLANATIONS OF RATINGS REFER TO THE STOCK RATING KEYS LOCATED ON THE PAGE FOLLOWING THE LAST PRICE CHART.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by Intel Corp. or one of its affiliates.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Intel Corp. in the past 12 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Intel Corp.
within the next 3 months.
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the shares of Intel Corp..
Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from Intel Corp. within the past 12
months.
Intel Corp. is or during the past 12 months has been an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
Intel Corp. is or during the last 12 months has been a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC
and/or an affiliate.
Valuation Methodology: PT is $24 or 15x our CY10 EPS estimate of $1.60
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Intel is heavily dependent to PC sales. If the number of PCs sold
declines, Intel's processor opportunity will directly be affected by the units. Intel's average selling prices are also impacted by supply and
demand conditions of PCs. Although the company typically reduces processor prices once a quarter, the company may increase the

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Equity Research
severity of the price cut to drive sell through demand. Also the competitive position of AMD products and any market share gains could
adversely affect Intel. Intel's Architecture group, which includes the processor revenue, generates about 85% of total revenue and over
100% of operating profit.

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Equity Research
FOR CURRENT IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES REGARDING COMPANIES THAT ARE
THE SUBJECT OF THIS RESEARCH REPORT, PLEASE SEND A WRITTEN REQUEST TO:
BARCLAYS CAPITAL RESEARCH COMPLIANCE
745 SEVENTH AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK, NY 10019
OR
REFER TO www.lehman.com/disclosures or call 1-212-526-1072

Important Disclosures Continued:


The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.

Company Name Ticker Price Price Date Stock / Sector Rating


Intel Corp. INTC US$ 19.07 17-Dec-2009 1-Overweight / 2-Neutral

Mentioned Company Ticker Price Price Date Stock / Sector Rating


Advanced Micro Devices AMD US$ 9.12 17 Dec 2009 1-Overweight / 2-Neutral
Broadcom Corp. BRCM US$ 31.16 17 Dec 2009 1-Overweight / 2-Neutral
Cavium Networks Inc. CAVM US$ 21.62 17 Dec 2009 1-Overweight / 2-Neutral
Micron Technology, Inc. MU US$ 8.73 17 Dec 2009 1-Overweight / 2-Neutral
NVIDIA Corp. NVDA US$ 16.83 17 Dec 2009 2-Equal Weight / 2-Neutral
QUALCOMM, Inc. QCOM US$ 44.31 17 Dec 2009 1-Overweight / 2-Neutral

Barclays Capital produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative
analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types
of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.
Guide to the Barclays Capital Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:
Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2-Equal Weight or 3-Underweight (see
definitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry
sector (the “sector coverage universe”). Below is the list of companies that constitute the sector coverage universe:

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Altera Corp. (ALTR)


Analog Devices (ADI) Atheros Communications, Inc. (ATHR)
AuthenTec Inc. (AUTH) Avago Technologies Ltd. (AVGO)
Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) Cavium Networks Inc. (CAVM)
Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (CY) Entropic Communications Inc. (ENTR)
Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS) Hittite Microwave Corp. (HITT)
Integrated Device Technology, Inc. (IDTI) Intel Corp. (INTC)
Intersil Corporation (ISIL) Linear Technology (LLTC)
LSI (LSI) Marvell Technology Group, Ltd. (MRVL)
Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Microsemi Corporation (MSCC)
National Semiconductor (NSM) Netlogic Microsystems (NETL)
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) ON Semiconductor (ONNN)
PMC-Sierra (PMCS) QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM)
RF Micro Devices (RFMD) Silicon Laboratories (SLAB)
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) Smart Modular Technologies (SMOD)
Texas Instruments, Inc. (TXN) Triquint Semiconductor (TQNT)
Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX)

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Equity Research
In addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or
3-Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system.
Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.

Stock Rating
1-Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
2-Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a
12- month investment horizon.
3-Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a
12- month investment horizon.
RS-Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage
impracticable or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Barclays Capital is acting
in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

Sector View
1-Positive - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.
2-Neutral - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.
3-Negative - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.

Distribution of Ratings:
Barclays Capital Equity Research has 1399 companies under coverage.
40% have been assigned a 1-Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 43%
of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
45% have been assigned a 2-Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating;
38% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
13% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 32%
of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

Barclays Capital offices involved in the production of Equity Research:


London
Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays Capital, London)
New York
Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, New York)
Tokyo
Barclays Capital Japan Limited (BCJL, Tokyo)
São Paulo
Banco Barclays S.A. (BBSA, São Paulo)
Hong Kong
Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (BB, Hong Kong)

Toronto
Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCC, Toronto)

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Equity Research
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