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MMFSs Q2FY15 performance was slightly below our expectation as credit costs
remain elevated (200bps) and slower NII growth resulting in some pressure in
spreads. Asset quality was largely stable with no new customer additions while
collection efforts remained concerted on gradual movement in economic activity.
AUMgrowthhascertainlypickeduponhigherdisbursementsbutcleartrendsare
not visible asenvironmentremains volatile. We retain Reduce rating with TP of
Rs255asbelieverecoverywillbehardandgradualforanypickupinreturnratios.
October22,2014
PriteshBumb
priteshbumb@plindia.com
+912266322232
Rating
Price
TargetPrice
ImpliedUpside
Sensex
Nifty
Disbursementpickupinallsegments,butstilltofollowinAUM:Disbursements
wereflatYoYbuthascomeofffromnegativeterritory.Pickupindisbursements
wereledfromAuto,CV&usedvehiclesegment,butpickuphasnotfollowedin
AUM as (1) Most of the growth was in end of the quarter (2) Only certain
geographieshaveshowedimprovedactivityand(3)Discountsstillremainhigh
whichreflectinAUMdespitepickupinvolumes.Managementcommentarywas
optimisticbutstillarenotclearifgrowthtrendsweretosustain,butstillhopeto
dowellasitpenetratesdeeperintoruralwithdiverseproducts.
Reduce
Rs277
Rs255
7.9%
26,787
7,996
(PricesasonOctober22,2014)
Tradingdata
MarketCap.(Rsbn)
Shareso/s(m)
3MAvg.Dailyvalue(Rsm)
Majorshareholders
Promoters
Foreign
DomesticInst.
Public&Other
StockPerformance
(%)
1M
6M
Absolute
(1.5)
13.0
Relative
0.0
(4.7)
HowwedifferfromConsensus
EPS(Rs)
PL
Cons.
2015
16.0
16.7
2016
19.6
20.9
156.0
563.5
916.4
52.06%
41.52%
1.09%
5.33%
12M
2.6
(25.8)
%Diff.
4.6
5.9
PricePerformance(RIC:MMFS.BO,BB:MMFSIN)
(Rs)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
KeyFinancials(Y/eMarch)
Netinterestincome(Rsm)
Growth(%)
Noninterestincome(Rsm)
OperatingProfit(Rsm)
PAT(Rsm)
EPS(Rs)
Growth(%)
NetDPS(Rs)
2013
20,234
30.1
380
15,340
8,541
15.2
25.6
3.6
2014
25,014
23.6
314
18,516
8,872
15.7
3.8
3.8
2015E
28,605
14.4
361
20,590
8,995
16.0
1.4
3.6
2016E
34,229
19.7
415
24,742
11,061
19.6
23.0
4.4
2013
10.1
23.1
4.2
18.2
3.5
3.7
1.3
2014
9.5
18.6
3.4
17.6
3.1
3.5
1.4
2015E
9.2
16.6
2.9
17.3
2.7
3.2
1.3
2016E
9.4
17.9
3.0
14.1
2.4
2.8
1.6
Oct14
Aug14
Jun14
Apr14
Feb14
Dec13
Oct13
Source:Bloomberg
Profitability&valuation
Spreads/Margins(%)
RoAE(%)
RoAA(%)
P/E(x)
P/BV(x)
P/ABV(x)
Netdividendyield(%)
Source:CompanyData;PLResearch
PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.and/oritsassociates(the'Firm')doesand/orseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresultinvestorsshouldbeawarethat
theFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthereport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Pleaserefertoimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimersattheendofthereport
Q2FY15ResultUpdate
Sanityinperformancebutenvironmentremainsvolatile
Mahindra&MahindraFinancialServices
Exhibit1: MMFSQ2FY15:Steadyquarter
(Rsm)
Q2FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
YoY
QoQ
IncomefromOperations
12,031
12,752
13,537
12.5%
6.2%
InterestIncome
12,031
12,752
13,537
12.5%
6.2%
InterestExpenses
5,253
5,949
6,168
17.4%
3.7%
NetInterestIncome
6,779
6,803
7,369
8.7%
8.3%
OtherIncome
96
79
150
56.8%
91.0%
TotalIncome
6,875
6,881
7,519
9.4%
9.3%
TotalOperatingExpenses
2,249
2,269
2,521
12.1%
11.1%
OperatingProfit(PPP)
4,625
4,612
4,998
8.1%
8.4%
Provisions&WriteOffs
1,262
2,250
1,842
45.9%
18.1%
PBT
3,363
2,362
3,156
6.2%
33.6%
ReportedProfit
2,212
1,554
2,069
6.5%
33.2%
311,465
342,710
356,942
14.6%
4.2%
OffBalanceSheetAUM
16,794
20,092
9,287
155.3%
146.2%
NIM
8.94%
7.96%
8.43%
0.51%
0.47%
297,655
325,066
340,033
14.2%
4.6%
Auto/Utilityvehicles
80,367
97,520
98,040
22.0%
0.5%
Tractors
56,554
61,763
60,852
7.6%
1.5%
Cars/Others
71,437
74,765
77,756
8.8%
4.0%
CommercialVehicles
47,625
45,509
47,330
0.6%
4.0%
Usedvehicles&Others
41,672
45,509
54,091
29.8%
18.9%
AssetsUnderManagement
AUM(Rsm)
AssetQuality
GrossNPAs
12,223
20,278
21,314
74.4%
5.1%
NetNPAs
5,541
9,324
10,126
82.7%
8.6%
GrossNPA(%)
4.25%
6.42%
5.91%
1.7%
0.5%
NetNPA(%)
1.97%
3.06%
2.90%
0.9%
0.2%
Coverage(%)
53.6%
52.4%
51.0%
2.6%
1.4%
CreditcostsCalculated
1.62%
2.63%
2.07%
0.45%
0.56%
TotalBorrowedFunds
222,755
243,388
286,957
28.8%
17.9%
Loans&Advances&others
280,861
304,974
349,320
24.4%
14.5%
TotalAssets
294,671
322,618
366,229
24.3%
13.5%
InsuranceBrokersPAT
89
85
90
1.1%
5.9%
RuralHousingPAT
65
52
98
50.8%
88.5%
BalancesheetDetails
SubsidiaryPerformance
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
October22,2014
Mahindra&MahindraFinancialServices
Q2FY15ConcallHighlights:
Outlook&commentary:
Pickup in growth still not started on ground, some geographies have been
gettingintoproblems
UsedvehiclesdisbursementsarepickingupgraduallyforMMFSL
Have tied up with large manufacturers for whole India financing, which is
alreadyhappeninginvolumes
TractorsgrowthbetterinH2ofeveryyearasutilizationinH1islow.
IfunderlyinggrowthcontinuesandstablemarketshareMMFSLwillstillgrowat
decentrates.
Balancesheet:
Rs20bno/ssecuritizedbook.
LTVsat7072%andCV/CELTVs(includingprojectcost)at6065%
Collections:
Stilllargelyemployeesbeingdeployedforcollectionsefforts.
Collectionsarestillslowaslotofcustomersaredaytodayearnerswhichhave
gradualpaymentpattern
Assetquality:
NPArecognitionnormsof90daysor120daysfrom180dayscurrentlywillbenot
aproblemasregulatorwillgivesometimeforimplementingnewnormwitha
timeline. Will enhance collection effort and repossession if norms change or
startacceleratingprovisionsonlatestbookofNPA.
Bad debt writtenoff Rs720mn v/s Rs520mn in Q2FY14 and Loss from
repossessedsalewrittenoffatRs920mnv/sRs520mn
October22,2014
Mahindra&MahindraFinancialServices
Exhibit2: AUM growth seems to be now flattening and should Exhibit3: Disbursement growth picked up mostly in end of the
pickupasdisbursementweregoodinQ2FY5
quarter
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
Q4FY11
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
Q4FY11
20.0%
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Exhibit4: Marginstoremainvolatileforsometimeaheadasmixgetsadjusted
12.00%
11.00%
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
Q4FY11
6.00%
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Exhibit5: Opex/assetshasmovedupasMMFSgearsupforimprovinglendingprospects
5.0%
Op.Cost/Assets(%)
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
Q4FY11
2.0%
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
October22,2014
Mahindra&MahindraFinancialServices
Exhibit6: Assetqualitydoesnotseeanylargeslippages
GrossNPA(%)
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Exhibit7: CreditcostonAUMcomeoffonlargelystableassetquality
3.00%
NetNPA(%)
Creditcosts PL(AUM)
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
Q4FY11
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
Q4FY11
0.00%
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Exhibit8: Quarterly change in GNPAs YoY GNPAs growth has been sharp in past few
quarters
GNPA QoQchange
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
Q4FY11
20%
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
Exhibit9: ROEstomoveto20%onstabilityinassetqualityandmargins
ROEDecomposition(onAUM)
NetInterestIncome/Assets
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14 FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
10.14%
9.20%
8.72%
8.58%
Fees/Assets
0.30%
0.15%
0.10%
0.09%
Investmentprofits/Assets
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Netrevenues/Assets
10.44%
9.35%
8.82%
8.67%
OperatingExpense/Assets
3.78%
3.31%
3.00%
3.00%
Provisions/Assets
1.23%
0.88%
1.99%
1.70%
Taxes/Assets
1.85%
1.70%
1.23%
1.27%
TotalCosts/Assets
6.86%
5.89%
6.22%
5.97%
ROA
3.57%
3.46%
2.60%
2.70%
Equity/Assets
19.2%
16.5%
15.5%
14.7%
ROE
22.0%
22.8%
18.0%
19.7%
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch
October22,2014
Mahindra&MahindraFinancialServices
Exhibit10: WeretainReducewithSep16PTatRs255pershare
Riskfreerate
8.0%
EquityRiskPremium
6.0%
Beta
1.10
CostofEquity
14.6%
Terminalgrowth
5.0%
NormalisedROE
19.4%
Stage2growth
18.0%
Sep15PT
255
Subsidiaryvaluation
23
ImpliedSep16P/BLendingBiz
2.33
ImpliedSep16P/ELendingBiz
11.8
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch,Bloomberg
October22,2014
Mahindra&MahindraFinancialServices
IncomeStatement(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
Int.Inc./Opt.Inc.
InterestExpenses
Netinterestincome
Growth(%)
Noninterestincome
Growth(%)
Netoperatingincome
Expenditure
Employees
Otherexpenses
Depreciation
Totalexpenditure
PPP
Growth(%)
Provision
Otherincome
ExchangeGain/(Loss)
Profitbeforetax
Tax
Effectivetaxrate(%)
PAT
Growth(%)
2013
2014
36,422
16,188
20,234
30.1
380
41.2
22,759
3,616
511
222
4,350
15,340
41.7
2,833
12,506
3,965
31.7
8,541
37.7
46,894
21,880
25,014
23.6
314
(17.4)
27,650
4,729
511
243
5,483
18,516
20.7
5,058
13,458
4,586
34.1
8,872
3.9
2015E
53,850
25,244
28,605
14.4
361
15.0
31,379
5,674
511
245
6,430
20,590
11.2
7,363
13,227
4,233
32.0
8,995
1.4
2016E
62,848
28,620
34,229
19.7
415
15.0
37,538
6,809
511
143
7,463
24,742
20.2
8,476
16,266
5,205
32.0
11,061
23.0
BalanceSheet(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
2013
2014
Sourcesoffunds
Equity
1,126
Reserves&Surplus
43,420
Networth
44,546
Growth(%)
51.0
Loanfunds
188,723
Growth(%)
Others
MinorityInterest
DeferredTaxLiability
Total
233,269
Applicationoffunds
Netfixedassets
1,068
Advances
240,384
Growth(%)
37.4
Netcurrentassets
(13,792)
Investments
5,610
Growth(%)
11.6
OtherAssets
Total
233,269
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.
1,127
49,815
50,942
14.4
242,977
28.7
293,919
1,195
296,170
23.2
(12,138)
8,692
54.9
293,919
2015E
2016E
1,127
56,446
57,573
13.0
272,213
12.0
329,787
1,127
64,601
65,728
14.2
330,305
21.3
396,033
1,426
333,650
12.7
(13,630)
8,341
(4.0)
329,786
1,853
399,275
19.7
(15,146)
9,982
19.7
395,964
QuarterlyFinancials(Rsm)
Y/eMarch
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
12,658
5,891
6,767
20.6
53
6,820
20.4
2,528
4,292
13.2
1,796
2,496
854
34.2
1,641
(18.0)
13,602
5,975
7,627
15.0
104
7,732
14.0
2,293
5,439
16.4
748
4,691
1,584
33.8
3,107
(6.9)
12,752
5,949
6,803
10.4
79
6,881
10.6
2,269
4,612
10.9
2,250
2,362
809
34.2
1,554
(18.7)
13,537
6,168
7,369
8.7
150
7,519
9.4
2,521
4,998
8.1
1,842
3,156
1,087
34.4
2,069
(6.5)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
277
563
155,872
66.8
15.2
79.1
74.5
18.2
3.5
3.7
3.6
1.3
277
564
156,005
53.1
15.7
90.4
80.2
17.6
3.1
3.5
3.8
1.4
277
564
156,005
47.3
16.0
102.2
87.2
17.3
2.7
3.2
3.6
1.3
277
564
156,005
39.4
19.6
116.6
99.5
14.1
2.4
2.8
4.4
1.6
Int.Inc./OperatingInc.
Incomefromsecuritization
InterestExpenses
NetInterestIncome
Growth
Noninterestincome
Netoperatingincome
Growth
Operatingexpenditure
PPP
Growth
Provision
ExchangeGain/(Loss)
Profitbeforetax
Tax
Prov.fordeferredtaxliability
Effectivetaxrate(%)
PAT
Growth
KeyRatios
Y/eMarch
CMP(Rs)
Eq.Shrs.O/s.(m)
MarketCap(Rsm)
MarketCaptoAUM(%)
EPS(Rs)
BookValue(Rs)
AdjustedBookValue(Rs)
P/E(x)
P/BV(x)
P/ABV(x)
DPS(Rs)
DividendYield(%)
AssetQuality
Y/eMarch
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
GrossNPAs(Rsm)
NetNPAs(Rsm)
GrossNPAstoGrossAdv.(%)
NetNPAstoNetAdv.(%)
NPACoverage(%)
7,630
2,600
3.2
1.1
65.9
14,057
5,756
4.7
1.9
59.1
18,806
8,463
5.6
2.5
55.0
24,156
9,662
6.0
2.4
60.0
Profitability(%)
Y/eMarch
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
NIM
10.1
RoAA
4.2
RoAE
23.1
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.
9.5
3.4
18.6
9.2
2.9
16.6
9.4
3.0
17.9
October22,2014
Mahindra&MahindraFinancialServices
PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.
3rdFloor,SadhanaHouse,570,P.B.Marg,Worli,Mumbai400018,India
Tel:(9122)66322222Fax:(9122)66322209
RatingDistributionofResearchCoverage
%ofTotalCoverage
60%
51.9%
50%
40%
31.7%
30%
16.3%
20%
10%
0.0%
0%
BUY
Accumulate
Reduce
Sell
PLsRecommendationNomenclature
BUY
Over15%OutperformancetoSensexover12months
Accumulate
: OutperformancetoSensexover12months
Reduce
UnderperformancetoSensexover12months
Sell
: Over15%underperformancetoSensexover12months
TradingBuy
Over10%absoluteupsidein1month
TradingSell
: Over10%absolutedeclinein1month
NotRated(NR)
Nospecificcallonthestock
UnderReview(UR)
: Ratinglikelytochangeshortly
This document has been prepared by the Research Division of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India (PL) and is meant for use by the recipient only as
informationandisnotforcirculation.ThisdocumentisnottobereportedorcopiedormadeavailabletootherswithoutpriorpermissionofPL.Itshouldnotbe
consideredortakenasanoffertosellorasolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurity.
Theinformationcontainedinthisreporthasbeenobtainedfromsourcesthatareconsideredtobereliable.However,PLhasnotindependentlyverifiedtheaccuracy
orcompletenessofthesame.NeitherPLnoranyofitsaffiliates,itsdirectorsoritsemployeesacceptanyresponsibilityofwhatsoevernaturefortheinformation,
statementsandopiniongiven,madeavailableorexpressedhereinorforanyomissiontherein.
Recipientsofthisreportshouldbeawarethatpastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformanceandvalueofinvestmentscangodownaswell.The
suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an
independentexpert/advisor.
EitherPLoritsaffiliatesoritsdirectorsoritsemployeesoritsrepresentativesoritsclientsortheirrelativesmayhaveposition(s),makemarket,actasprincipalor
engageintransactionsofsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportandtheymayhaveusedtheresearchmaterialpriortopublication.
Wemayfromtimetotimesolicitorperforminvestmentbankingorotherservicesforanycompanymentionedinthisdocument.
October22,2014