1he

AnLhropocene
and
laneLary
8oundarles
edro Walpole, hu
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 2
Can we susLaln economlc growLh?
1he worlds ablllLy Lo comblne long-Lerm
economlc growLh wlLh envlronmenLal
susLalnablllLy ls Lhe sub[ecL of wlde debaLe
Cne Lhlng ls cerLaln: Lhe currenL Lra[ecLory of
human acuvlLy ls unsusLalnable
lf we conunue on Lhe currenL paLh, Lhe
envlronmenLal foundauons of global well-belng
wlll collapse
need Lo channel resources and knowledge lnLo
hlgh susLalnablllLy Lechnologles
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 3
LcosysLem servlces
Puman hlsLory ls marked by pauerns of mlgrauon
and populauon growLh
1he mosL deeply lngralned pauern however ls Lhe
approprlauon of Lhe LarLhs naLural sysLems for
human use. (!erey Sachs)
naLure provldes us wlLh Lhe raw maLerlals Lo supporL llfe -
food, waLer, fuels, ber
Puman socleLy harnesses Lhese servlces Lo supporL
populauon growLh and rlslng levels of consumpuon,
unaware of Lhe long-Lerm consequences
1he consequences have so far been manageable: unul
recenLly: lncreaslng populauon and lncreaslng hlgh-
lnLenslLy acuvlLy
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 4
1he AnLhropocene
1he AnLhropocene (aul CruLzen). 1he Lerm
AnLhropocene - from ootbtopo, for man
and ceoe for new - descrlbes a new
geologlcal epoch ln whlch humanlLy lLself
consuLuLes Lhe largesL drlvlng force of change
on LarLh.
AnLhropocene has become an envlronmenLal
key concepL lnLegraung dlerenL sclenuc
dlsclpllnes and ndlngs.
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD S
1he AnLhropocene
AgrlculLure - one of Lhe breakLhroughs ln
human hlsLory
1he shl Lo agrlculLure represenLed a quallLauve
change ln Lhe naLural order, consequences of Lhls
are sull belng played ouL
Puman populauon soared wlLh Lhe onseL of
agrlculLure
Puman socleLy able Lo lncrease denslLy wherever lL was
locaLed
Cpened Lhe opporLunlLy Lo expand Lhe range of human
hablLaLs on a masslve scale
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 6
1he AnLhropocene
lndusLrlal 8evoluuon
1he ablllLy Lo Lap lnLo Lhe coal, oll and naLural gas allowed
human socleues Lo surpass Lhe Lradluonal llmlLs on food,
waLer, LransporL and shelLer
Paber-8osch process (for synLheslzlng nlLrogen-based
chemlcal ferullzers) made a masslve expanslon ln
agrlculLure posslble
1he resulL of Lhese Lechnologlcal advances?
uramauc lncrease ln populauon
1he rapld rlse of human producuvlLy
1he comblnauon of Lhese Lwo facLors resulLed ln an
exploslon of LoLal economlc acuvlLy
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 7
1he AnLhropocene
1wo cenLurles aer Lhe lndusLrlal 8evoluuon, we are
confronung Lhe beneLs, buL also Lhe rlsks of our
Lechnologlcal success
A Lenfold lncrease ln human populauon slnce 1730 plus a
slmllar lncrease ln producuon per person on Lhe planeL = a
hundred fold lncrease ln economlc acuvlLy compared Lo
Lhe sLarL of Lhe lndusLrlal era
1hls hundred fold lncrease corresponds Lo Lhe
human acuvlues relaLed Lo our use of Lhe LarLhs
resources and physlcal processes for human
consumpuon
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 8
1he AnLhropocene
1he pasL 10,000 years, Lhe Polocene perlod, was a
perlod of sLablllLy. 1hls sLablllLy may now be under
LhreaL.
1he scale of human acuvlues ls Lhrowlng
fundamenLal, llfe-susLalnlng sysLems of Lhe LarLh o
balance
1he work of eLer vlLousek eL al. shows Lhe exLenL Lo
whlch humans now domlnaLe Lhe LarLhs sysLems
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 9
Puman domlnance or alLerauon of of
several componenLs of Lhe LarLh sysLem
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 10
Puman domlnance of LarLh sysLems
1. Land Lransformauon - clearlng for agrlculLure, up Lo
30 of Lhe LarLhs phoLosynLheuc poLenual ls
dlrecLly approprlaLed for human use
2. Carbon uloxlde concenLrauon - fossll fuels
lncreaslng Lhe level of CC
2
ln Lhe aLmosphere
3. WaLer use - human lnLerference ln Lhe hydrologlcal
cycle (prlmarlly Lo ensure waLer for food producuon)
4. nlLrogen xauon - Paber-8osch process Lo lncrease
Lhe nlLrogen xauon process
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 11
Puman domlnance of LarLh sysLems
3. lanL lnvaslons - lnLroducuon of forelgn specles (can
have unpredlcLable consequences)
6. 8lrd exuncuons - x of all blrd specles have been
drlven Lo exuncuon by human acuvlues
7. Marlne sherles - 2/3 of Lhe worlds ma[or marlne
sherles are fully explolLed, overexplolLed or
depleLed)
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 12
1he shl
uurlng Lhe Polocene, envlronmenLal change was a
naLural process, and Lhe planeLs regulaLory
capaclLy was able Lo malnLaln Lhe condluons
necessary for human developmenL
uue Lo a growlng rellance on fossll fuels and on
lndusLrlal agrlculLure, Lhe sysLems LhaL keep LarLh
ln a deslrable Polocene sLaLe are damaged
8esulLs could be lrreverslble
ln some cases, abrupL envlronmenLal change could lead
Lo a sLaLe less conduclve Lo developmenL
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 13
1hresholds vs 8oundarles
1hresholds are dened as non-llnear Lransluons ln
Lhe funcuonlng of coupled human- envlronmenLal
sysLems
Lxample: reLreaL of Arcuc sea lce due Lo anLhropogenlc
global warmlng
lnLrlnslc feaLure of Lhe sysLem
8oundarles are human deLermlned values of Lhe
conLrol varlable seL aL a safe dlsLance from a
dangerous level or from Lhe global Lhreshold
ueLermlnlng Lhe safe dlsLance lnvolves normauve
[udgemenLs of how we choose Lo deal wlLh rlsk and
uncerLalnLy
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 14
Puman conLrol varlables and LarLh
response varlables glves boundary
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Contro| var|ab|e (e.g. ppm CC
2
) Land use change (e.g.
ecosystem to crop|and)
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 1S
laneLary 8oundarles
ConcepL developed Lo ouLllne a safe operaung
space for humanlLy (8ocksLrom eL al 2009)
WlLhln Lhls safe operaung space, low
llkellhood of harmlng Lhe LarLhs llfe supporL
sysLems, such LhaL Lhey are able Lo conunue Lo
supporL growLh & human developmenL
LorL ls noL Lo place a cap on developmenL
8aLher, Lhe boundarles provlde a safe space
for lnnovauon, growLh and developmenL ln
Lhe pursulL of human prosperlLy
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 16
9 boundarles, 3 forms/caLegorles
CaLegorles
1. 8oundarles denlng a safe global level of
depleung non-renewable fossll resources, such
as energy and groundwaLer
2. 8oundarles denlng a safe global level of uslng
Lhe llvlng blosphere, lncludlng explolLauon of
ecosysLems, proLecuon of blodlverslLy and
consumlng renewable resources
3. 8oundarles provldlng a safe global level of
LarLhs capaclLy Lo absorb and dlsslpaLe human
wasLe ows
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 17
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 18
1he boundarles
AlLhough Lhe boundarles are descrlbed as lndlvldual
boundarles and separaLe processes, Lhey are ughLly
llnked
8esponses Lherefore cannoL be concenLraLed on
one boundary ln lsolauon
1he approach resLs on 3 branches of sclenuc
enqulry
1. scale of human acuon ln relauon Lo Lhe capaclLy of
LarLh Lo susLaln lL
2. Lhe essenual LarLh processes and human acuon
3. 8eslllence
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 19
Caps
AlLhough Lhe sclenusLs presenL evldence LhaL 3 of
Lhe boundarles have already been Lransgressed,
Lhere are sull uncerLalnues
1he seven boundarles are sull LenLauvely quanued: Lhe
gures are sull besL guesses
8ecause Lhe boundarles are llnked, exceedlng one wlll
have lmpllcauons on oLhers - relauonshlps LhaL are noL
yeL compleLely undersLood
uncerLalnLy, ln Lerms of how long lL Lakes Lo cause
dangerous envlronmenLal change or Lrlgger oLher
feedback loops LhaL reduce LarLhs ablllLy Lo reLurn Lo
safe levels
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 20
8ocksLrom eL al: proposal for lnLegraung SusLalnable uevelopmenL Coals
wlLh laneLary 8oundarles
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 21
WhaL have l goL Lo say?...
we oeeJ o oew woy of tblokloq, o ptofoooJ mloJ-
sblf. we otqeotly oeeJ to tecoqolze tbot oot
socleues ote loumotely coooecteJ to plooet ottb.
we coooot wove o moqlc wooJ to ocbleve o sblf lo
bomoo voloes.
Awokeoloq people to oot coooecuoos wltb plooet
ottb wlll tepolte e[otts ftom scleoce, coltote,
pbllosopby, ooJ tellqloo, qolJeJ by o motol composs
of lotet-qeoetouoool tespooslblllty ooJ tespect fot
ootote.
!ohan 8ocksLrm, 2013 1be nomoo Ooest wlLh phoLographer Mamas klum, Max
SLrom, SLockholm
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 22
"Sull our besL frlend, Lhe planeL ls
dolng all lL can Lo remaln ln Lhe
sLable equlllbrlum of Lhe Polocene.
And we should supporL lL.
We can drlve us lnLo a good
AnLhropocene - an era where we
use our growlng educauonal,
sclenuc, and Lechnologlcal
capaclLy Lo sLay ln Polocene-llke
condluons. ln all aspecLs of llfe,
socleLy, and economy, we need Lo
cooperaLe and co-acL wlLh naLure.
!"#$%&' )&$*+%$", -&'./ 01"1'.%$
23$ .4% 5"61$3"7%". 89%#%"
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 23
Pow do we reach safer llvlng space".?
A ttoosfotmouve oqeoJo most stott wltb
Jeepet loslqbts.
we belleve tbot scleoce, wblle lmpottoot, ls
ooly ooe omooq mooy compooeots tepolteJ to
tecollbtote oot voloes fot tbe Aotbtopoceoe.
we oeeJ to combloe tbe lotest scleoufc
evlJeoce, ooolyses, ooJ obsetvouoos wltb
emouoool, coltotol, tellqloos, ooJ etblcol
Jlmeosloos of oot expetleoce.
!ohan 8ocksLrm, 2013 1be nomoo Ooest wlLh phoLographer
Mamas klum, Max SLrom, SLockholm
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 24
8eferences
Common WealLh: Lconomlcs for a Crowded laneL by !erey
Sachs
A Safe Cperaung Space for PumanlLy by !ohan 8ocksLrom eL
al., naLure vol 461|24 SepLember 2009
SupplemenLary lnformauon Lo: SusLalnable developmenL
goals for people and planeL by uavld Crlggs, Mark SLaord-
SmlLh, Cwen Caney, !ohan 8ocksLrm, Marcus C. Chman,
rlya Shyamsundar, Wlll SLeen, ClsberL Claser, norlchlka
kanle, lan noble. lobllsbeJ lo naLure :;<, J05-J07 (201J),
bup.//Jx.Jol.otq/10.10J8/495J05o.
laneLary 8oundarles: Lxplorlng Lhe safe operaung space for
humanlLy by !ohan 8ocksLrom eL al. Lcology and SocleLy
14(2): 32 hup://www.ecologyandsocleLy.org/vol14/lss2/
arL32/
2S-Mar-13 .WALCLL hD 2S
SusLalnable uevelopmenL and laneLary 8oundarles:
8ackground aper by !ohan 8ocksLrom and !erey
Sachs wlLh Marcs C. Chman and Culdo SchmldL-
1raub, May 2013
hup://www.posL2013hlp.org/wp-conLenL/uploads/
2013/06/8ocksLroem-Sachs-Cehman-SchmldL-
1raub_SusLalnable-uevelopmenL-and-laneLary-
8oundarles.pdf