Mizuho Corporate Bank

Weekly Technical Commentary 03 August 2009

Links: http://www.mizuho-sc.com/ Bloomberg Page: MIZH Website: http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/

GBP/USD Chart Levels: Support 1.6700..1.6500..1.6300..1.6000. Resistance 1.6850..1.7000..1.7100..1.7500.

GBP=D3, Last Quote [Candle], Last Quote [Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly
21Jun08 - 06Feb10 This week This month
Pr

GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Candle 2

09Aug09 1.6708 1.6851 1.6696 1.6830
GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Tenkan Sen 9
09Aug09 1.6327 1.95
GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Kijun Sen 26
09Aug09 1.5253
GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Senkou Span(a) 52 1.9
After ten weeks of ‘triangle’ consolidation, at
last! A weekly close higher than anything since
31Jan10 1.5790
GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Senkou Span(b) 52
31Jan10 1.6378
October so that we have now retraced 50% of
1.85
GBP=D3 , Last Quote, Chikou Span 26
15Feb09 1.6830

1.8 the losses since last summer. The measured

1.75
targets from this breakout are 1.7100 and then
1.7500, part of the ultra-long term trend to
1.7
generalised US dollar weakness. This may have
1.65 come as a surprise to some but other currencies
1.6
are also gaining against the US dollar so it’s a
dollar problem rather than sterling in vogue.
1.55
Futures volume has been good and though
1.5 running about half of the 2007/2008 peak open
interest is picking up. Note record volume in
Canadian dollar futures suggest the US investor
1.45

1.4 has grasped the threat of devaluation, at least

1.35
against its northern neighbour.
Jul08 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan10 Feb

EUR/GBP Chart Levels: Support 0.8400..0.8250..0.8200..0.8000. Resistance 0.8535..0.8600..0.8700..0.8750.

EURGBP=D3, Last Quote [Candle] EURGBP=R, Bid [Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly
27Aug07 - 07Feb10 This week This month
Pr
0.98

0.96

After consolidating in a neat tiny range under

0.94

0.92
0.8700 for six weeks the large weekly Ichimoku
0.9 ‘cloud’ looks set to push the cross lower. A re-
0.88 test of this year’s low at 0.8400 looks imminent
0.86
and a weekly close below here should add to
0.84
current strong bearish momentum. A monthly
close below it completes a massive long term
top, so that sterling would be unlikely to move
0.82

0.8
above this area for many years to come. This
0.78 pivotal area for the currency pair, two standard
EURGBP=D3 , Last Quote, Candle 0.76 deviations from the very long term mean is so
important that we may hover around here for a
09Aug09 0.85350 0.85350 0.84620 0.84770
EURGBP=R, Bid, Tenkan Sen 9
0.74
09Aug09 0.8596
EURGBP=R, Bid, Kijun Sen 26
09Aug09 0.8946 0.72
whole month or more before we see a decisive
EURGBP=R, Bid, Senkou Span(a) 52
31Jan10 0.8771 downside break. Until then rallies, which will
probably struggle to move significantly above
EURGBP=R, Bid, Senkou Span(b) 52 0.7
31Jan10 0.8747
EURGBP=R, Bid, Chikou Span 26
15Feb09 0.8473 0.68
0.8600, are therefore selling opportunities.
Sep07 Oct Nov Dec Jan08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan10 Feb

Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott +44-20-7786-2509 (email: Nicole.Elliott@mhcb.co.uk)

The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or
warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared
solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading
strategy.

Charts provided by Reuters.