Activity Duration Estimation - Time needed (work period) to complete individual task

activity (pmbok pg. 139)

Looking at chapter 6 of the PMBOK

What is elapsed time – Estimating the number of work periods required to complete a
schedule activity can consider an elapsed time as a requirement to a specific type of
work. Most PM software considers this and handles this situation by using a project
calendar and alternate work period resource. The schedule work activity would be
worked according to the project calendar and the schedule activity to which the
resources are assigned will also be worked as per the appropriate resource calendar.

Activity duration estimation is one of the parts of the project time management
(processes required to accomplish time component of a project)
1. Activity Definition – schedule activity to perform
2. Activity Sequencing - dependencies between each dependencies
3. Activity Resource Estimation – Type and the quantity of resources required
4. Activity Duration Estimation -
5. Schedule Development – (Combination of 1-4)
6. Schedule control – Controlling changes to the project schedule

Points 1 – 5 are done under planning process group and point 6 is M&C process group

Activity Duration estimation is progressively elaborated – e.g. As stated in PMBOK as

project engineering and design work evolves, more detail and data is available and the
accuracy of the duration estimation improves, so we can say and assume that duration
estimation is progressively more accurate and of better quality.
Ref pg 151-

Key Inputs:-

Enterprise Env. Factors. Org maintain databases of previous estimates. This data is
available commercially. This is useful when the duration is not driven by the actual work
e.g. availability of govt. officials

Org Process Assets :- Hist. info are available in many likely cases. Organizations involved
keep a tract and record of previous project result which can aid them in developing an
estimate. The org. process asset can be used in activity duration estimation such as
project calendar, what does it contain. Working days, shifts on which the schedule may
arrive, non working days

Activity List / Activity attributes – Activity list is a very comprehensive list consisting of
all schedule activity that are listed and it does not include any activity that is not a part
of the project scope. This list helps the team members to identify and understand what
work is to be completed.

Activity attributes are an extension to the activity list – things such as constraints, each
activity codes, relation ships between each activity, person responsible for the activity.

Point 8 Risk Register – Created during the planning phase, contains a list of all known
risk (identified) and the team considers this risk while estimating each duration.

One time Estimate – one activity per activity when received. For example this activity
will take 5 weeks to finish; now this is based on expert judgment by looking at the
historic data. E.g. I have been given a project, I don’t know how much time I may need,
what I would be asked for, so let me take my best estimate and double it.

Padding: - A pad is sometimes added to the project estimate. This is to mitigate some
unknown risk. This is a sign of poor project management.

Things to remember for the exam:-

a) Estimation should be based on WBS (for accuracy)
b) Estimation should be done by the person doing the job
c) Historic data is also an important key to improve estimates
d) The exam focuses on the role of a project manager in producing good estimates
and does not focuses on calculations.
e) Keeping the estimates realistic

Analogues Estimates – E.g. The last 5 similar projects took 3 months to complete with
the xyz resources. Now I don’t have much detail on a project so let me take this as my
estimate and when more details are known we will change it
Form of expert judgment.

Parametric Estimation – Based on a mathematical formulae, also refers to historical data

E.g. If I need to draw cables from Bur Dubai to karama, the distance is 2km. My each
engineer can draw 1km cable in 10 hours so; I will need 2 engineers for 10 hours to
complete the work.
Learning curve: - If I paint a room it took me 10 hours for the first time but now if I paint
another room maybe I will need 9 hours because of improved efficiency.
Heuristics: - Mean rule of thumb. Example of this is 80/20.

3 point estimation.
(PERT - Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
Optemestic – Minimum time
Most likely –
Pessimistic – Maximum Time
Expected time = (O + 4M + P) / 6

Reserve analysis

2 type – Contingency and management –

Contingency reserves are reserves for all the risk that may arise other than the known
risk.

Management reserves – Extra cash with the management to mitigate any unforeseen
risk

Contingency reserves are included in the cost base line.

Management reserves are included in the cost budget.