MOTI

Michaelmas Term 2014

DECISION ANALYSIS
Lecturer: Dr Alberto Feduzi
Objectives
The objectives of this module are:

To review standard decision-making models under risk and uncertainty.

To show how and why decision-makers often act in ways contrary to what
these models recommend.

To present cognitive repairs that can be used to de-bias individuals and

organizations.

To explain how individuals and organizations can reduce their exposure to

Black Swans.

To show how traditional risk management methods can be adapted to

manage projects exposed to unforeseeable uncertainty or unknown
unknowns.

Learning Outcomes
By the end of this module students should be able to:

Understand the economic and behavioural views of decision-making under

uncertainty.

Appreciate how de-biasing techniques can be used to improve individuals

and organizations decision outcomes.

Understand how to deal with choice situations with unknown unknowns.

Understand how to manage projects in highly uncertain settings and reduce

their exposure to Black Swans.

Recommended readings
Bazerman, M.,
and Moore, D. A.
(2013)
Feduzi, A. and
Runde, J. (2014)

Judgment in Managerial Decision

Making. 8th ed. New York: Wiley

Uncovering Unknown Unknowns:

Towards a Baconian Approach to
Management Decision-Making.
Organizational Behavior and Human
Decision Processes, 124(2): pp. 268283
Heath, C., Larrick, Cognitive Repairs: How Organizational
R. P. and
Practices Can Compensate for
Klayman, J. (1998) Individual Shortcomings. Research in
Organizational Behavior, 20: pp. 1-37

Printed book at:

HD30.23.B39 2013
E-article via
ScienceDirect

E-article via
CiteSeerx

MOTI
Michaelmas Term 2014

Larrick, R. P.
(2004)

Lenfle, S. and
Loch, C. H. (2010)

Loch, C. H., De
Meyer, A. and
Pich, M. T. (2006)

Debiasing. In D. J. Koehler and N.

Harvey (Eds.) Blackwell Handbook of
Judgment and Decision Making. Oxford:
Blackwell (pp. 316-337)
"Lost Roots: How Project Management
Came to Emphasize Control Over
Flexibility and Novelty." California
Management Review, 53(1): pp. 32-55
Managing the Unknown: A New
Approach to Managing High Uncertainty
and Risk in Projects. Hoboken, NJ: John
Wiley & Sons

Taleb, N. N.
(2008)

An Introduction to Decision Theory.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
The Psychology of Judgment and
Decision Making. London: McGraw-Hill
The Black Swan: The Impact of the
Highly Improbable. London: Penguin

Tversky, A. and
Kahneman, D.
(1974)

Judgment Under Uncertainty:

Heuristics and Biases. Science,
185(4157): pp. 1124-1131

Peterson, M.
(2009)
Plous, S. (1993)

E-book via
LibrarySearch
Printed book at:
BF448.K63 2004
E-article via
Business Source
Complete
E-book via
LibrarySearch
Printed book at:
HD69.P75 L623
Printed book at:
QA279.4.P47 2009
Printed book at:
ON ORDER
Printed book at:
Q375.T34 2010
(Pop Biz)
E-article via
JSTOR