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system model (ESM) of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology7 (MPI-ESM), which combines
general circulation models of the atmosphere and the ocean. The ocean model comprises a
biogeochemical module13 that includes a parameterization of the marine sulphur
cycle14, 15(Methods). The global pattern of present-day simulated DMS concentration of MPIESM agrees quite well with an observation-based climatology16 (Supplementary Fig. S1). Note
that in the MPI-ESM, DMS emissions do not have an impact on climate. To quantify the potential
climate impact of altered marine sulphur fluxes, we carried out simulations with a standalone
version of the atmospheric circulation model that includes sulphur chemistry and aerosol
microphysics17, 18(Methods).
With the MPI-ESM we run simulations with anthropogenic forcing following the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES)
A1B scenario19 for the period from 1860 to 2100. Model experiments consist of a set of runs
including pH-sensitive DMS production and one reference run with no pH-change implications
on the marine sulphur cycle (Supplementary Information).
The key function here is the dependence of DMS concentration on seawater pH. In various
mesocosm and laboratory microcosm experiments a tendency for decreasing DMS
concentrations with decreasing pH has been observed20. In contrast to these findings, one
study showed a DMS increase with decreasing pH, which was attributed to an enhanced grazing
pressure due to a community shift20. Recent data from a large mesocosm experiment in 2010 in
polar waters of Svalbard, Norway, support a DMS decrease in acidified water21. To establish
functions describing the dependency of the DMS production on pH we average these Svalbard
data for the mid-phase after nutrient addition and for the whole period of the experiment
(Fig. 1; for details see ref. 21). The DMS concentrations for the mid-phase show, to first order, a
linear decrease with lower concentrations of approximately 35(11%) between a pH range of
8.3 and 7.7 (pCO2 of 190750parts per million by volume)21. Averaged values for the whole
experiment are still 12(13%) lower for the same pH range. Furthermore, results from
mesocosm studies carried out in temperate water of a Norwegian fjord in the years 2003, 2005
and 2006 imply a much stronger sensitivity of DMS concentration on decreasing pH
(Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table S1). By basing our approach on the results from mesocosm
experiments our intention is to encompass the variety of biological processes that govern net
DMS production. Nonetheless, we note that the level of understanding of the processes behind
the response of DMS to ocean acidification is hitherto very poor4, 21, 22. Furthermore,
establishing a consistent response among mesocosm studies is confounded by considerable
differences in the experimental set-ups that have been used, including: volumes of seawater
enclosed; method used to alter acidity of the sea water; and the stability of the pH values over
time (Supplementary Information).
From Fig. 1 we derive a relationship, F, to modify the DMS production rate (Supplementary
Equation S2) with F=1+(pHactpHpre). The monthly mean climatological surface pH value,
pHpre, was obtained from the first ten years of the reference run (18601869) and pHact is the
present in situ pH value. The multiplicative factor denotes the gradient of the linear fit for each
data set: the whole Svalbard experiment with a low =0.25; the mid-phase with a
medium =0.58; the three years measurements in a Norwegian fjord with a high =0.87
gradient (Fig. 1). We carry out three studies applying the low, medium and high sensitivity of
DMS on pH changes to evaluate the uncertainties underlying our assumption. In the following
we focus our discussion on the results for the medium-pH-sensitive experiment.
Annual mean pHact decreases during the simulation following the increase of anthropogenic
CO2storage in the ocean. The annual mean pH reduction varies regionally between 0.25 and 0.4
units in 2100 as compared with the 1860s (Fig. 2a). Higher latitudes, known to absorb significant
amounts of anthropogenic CO2, show a stronger pH reduction up to 0.5 units.
Besides a potential pH sensitivity, the main drivers of the marine DMS cycle are the net primary
production, or more precisely the decay of organic matter, and the plankton composition
(Supplementary Information). Any change to these quantities will directly affect the DMS
concentration. We find that the global net primary production and export production of detritus
decrease globally by about 16% from 1860 to 2100 (Table 1 and Fig. 2d). These changes are
attributed to an increased stratification of the water column due to climate warming, which
leads to a reduction in nutrient supply to surface layers23. In almost all ocean regions a
decrease in biological production is projected; only in polar regions does the retreat of sea ice
lead to an increased phytoplankton growth and a small increase in net primary and export
production (Fig. 2d). The increased water-column stratification also reduces the supply of
silicate to the surface layers, which causes a plankton community shift towards calcifiers, that is,
towards high-DMS-producing plankton species, in some areas (Supplementary Fig. S2). Globally,
the DMS production is decreased by 12% in 2100 in the reference run (Fig. 2b). The reference
run and the pH-sensitive runs produce basically the same global patterns and global annual
mean fluxes for net primary and export production and result in similar plankton composition
because the physical circulation fields are identical (Table 1). In contrast, we find a substantial
decrease by 26% in DMS production in the medium-pH-sensitive run by 2100 (Fig. 2e). Even
regions in which biological production is projected to increase, such as the Southern Ocean at
60S, show a reduction in the DMS production due to the significant decrease of seawater pH
(Fig. 2a).
Changes in the DMS production are not uniformly transferred to changes in the DMS sea-to-air
flux (Fig. 2c,f). The global annual DMS emissions in the reference run decrease from 29 TgS to
27 TgS from 1860 to 2100 representing only a 7% reduction. For the medium-pH-sensitive run
the global annual DMS emissions drop from 29 TgS to 23.8 TgS (17%). The low-pH-sensitive
experiment results in a 12% and the high one in a 24% decrease in DMS emission; thus, we find
a linear response of DMS emission to the change of the multiplicative factor (Table 1). The
relatively smaller reduction of the DMS emission compared with the DMS production in all
experiments can be explained by a shift of high-DMS-producing areas into ocean regions with
higher wind speeds, which allows for a more effective DMS gas transfer to the atmosphere.
Incorporating the pH-induced decrease in DMS emissions in a standalone atmospheric
circulation model that includes sulphur chemistry and aerosol-cloud mircophysics18 (Methods)
leads to a positive global mean top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing (Table 1). In the
reference run the global radiative forcing is small (0.08Wm2). For the medium-pH-sensitive
run a global radiative forcing of 0.48Wm2 is simulated. Subtracting the contribution owing to
climate change as deduced from the reference run, we get an additional radiative forcing of
0.40Wm2 from the impact of pH on DMS. The low- and high-pH-sensitive runs project an
additional global radiative forcing of 0.18 and 0.64Wm2, respectively. The strongest positive
radiative forcing is located in the latitudinal bands around 40 in both hemispheres in areas in
which DMS emissions were reduced significantly (Fig. 3 and Supplementary Fig. S3).
Consistently, areas with increased DMS emission such as the remote polar oceans show a
negative radiative forcing. The subtropical gyre in the South Pacific is also an area with increased
DMS emission, but there is no detectable signal in the radiative forcing pattern (Supplementary
Fig. S3). This apparent contradiction emphazises that nonlinear processes associated with
aerosol chemistry, cloud microphysics and cloud-dynamical adjustments may play an important
role in regulating the climate response to regional DMS emission changes as shown by other
model studies24, 25.
It is interesting to note that the impact of the pH-induced DMS emission changes on radiative
forcing varies little when different anthropogenic background aerosol emissions are applied. We
carried out a set of additional runs with a medium pH sensitivity and anthropogenic aerosol
emissions, representative of the year 2000 or a Representative Concentration Pathway
projection26 for the year 2100. We found a mean radiative forcing of 0.500.03Wm2 for this
set of experiments (Supplementary Information).
Our result of an additional radiative forcing of 0.40Wm2 for the medium-pH-sensitive run can
be compared with the radiative forcing of 3.71Wm2 that is estimated for a CO2 doubling19.
The significance of our result might become clearer if we convert the signal into a temperature
response: by applying an equilibrium climate sensitivity given for a CO2 doubling of 2.14.4K
(ref. 19) we diagnose an additional equilibrium temperature response between +0.23 and
+0.48K for the medium-pH-sensitive run (from +0.1 to +0.76K including low and high runs).
To our knowledge we are the first to highlight the potential climate impact due to changes in the
global sulphur cycle triggered by ocean acidification. We find that even in a future CO2 emission
scenario as moderate as the IPCC SRES A1B, pH changes in sea water are large enough to
significantly reduce marine DMS emissions by the end of the twenty-first century, causing an
additional radiative forcing of 0.40Wm2. This would be tantamount to a 10% additional
increase of the radiative forcing estimated for a doubling of CO2. Our result emphasizes that
this potential climate impact mechanism of ocean acidification should be considered in
projections of future climate change . Additional sensitivity experiments show this result varies
little with regard to the anthropogenic aerosol background emission. However, a fully coupled
transient climate run would be necessary to account for possible feedbacks between ocean
acidification and aerosol emissions. Owing to the nonlinear atmospheric response to changes
in DMS emissions the projected temperature increase could be amplified if the Earth system
faces a higher CO2 emission scenario or a higher sensitivity of DMS on pH changes.
Furthermore, ocean acidification might additionally have other impacts on marine biota that
may provoke further reductions in marine DMS emission27. Progress in understanding the
sensitivity of pelagic plankton communities to ocean acidification is required to reduce
uncertainties in the effects of non-CO2 climate-relevant gases in future climate projections.
the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, a non-profit research institute based in Woods
Hole, Mass.
"Greater acidity slows the growth or even dissolves ocean plant and animal shells built from
calcium carbonate," Doney told representatives in the House Committee on Energy and the
Environment. "Acidification thus threatens a wide range of marine organisms, from microscopic
plankton and shellfish to massive coral reefs."
If small organisms, like phytoplankton, are knocked out by acidity, the ripples would be farreaching, said David Adamec, head of ocean sciences at the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration.
"If the amount of phytoplankton is reduced, you reduce the amount of photosynthesis going
on in the ocean," Adamec told United Press International. "Those little guys are responsible for
half of the oxygen you're breathing right now."
A hit to microscopic organisms can also bring down a whole food chain. For instance, several
years ago, an El Nino event wiped out the phytoplankton near the Galapagos Islands. That year,
juvenile bird and seal populations almost disappeared. If ocean acidity stunted phytoplankton
populations like the El Nino did that year, a similar result would occur -- but it would last for
much longer than one year, potentially leading to extinction for some species, Adamec said.
2014, http://www.climate.org/topics/climate-change/ocean-uptake-climate-change.html,
Accessed 7/21/14 //CM)
The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the ocean changes the chemistry of the oceans and can
potentially have significant impacts on the biological systems in the upper oceans. In June
2005, The Royal Society (the United Kingdom's National Academy of Science) released a report
analyzing the impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide on ocean acidification. Surface
oceans have an average pH globally of about 8.2 units. Carbon emissions in the atmosphere
have lowered the ocean pH, increasing the acidity of the ocean by 30 percent in the last 100
years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA also
projects that, by the end of the century, current levels of carbon dioxide emissions could result
in the lowest levels of ocean pH in 20 million years. A balanced pH is vital in order to maintain
water quality favorable to marine life and in order to keep the ocean serving as a "carbon
reservoir." If the oceans become too acidic, the shells of animals such as scallops, clams,
crabs, plankton and corals are immediately threatened. Although studies into the impacts of
high concentrations of CO2 in the oceans are still in their infancy, evidence indicates that
reduced ocean carbon uptake is starting to occur and that this poses a serious hazard
because this is likely to speed up global warming , as occurred when this type of feedback was
initiated during the early warming stages of previous interglacials On October 16th 2007, the
US Senate passed a provision proposed by Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) to Protect Oceans
from Acidification. The legislation, co-sponsored by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) would focus more
research attention on ocean acidification, which threatens marine life and the fishing industry.
Both the trends in ocean acidification and CO2 absorption will have very large implications,
perhaps comparable to the potential impacts of more rapid melting of the Greenland Ice
Sheet. Moreover, reduced CO2 absorption by the oceans could accelerate warming greatly,
pushing the climate toward a more precipitous melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The recent
developments give heightened urgency to our having a grasp of the ocean acidification and
CO2 absorption trends. Although research and resources aiming at monitoring oceans should be
drastically enhanced to fully understand the various consequences that will bring about
anthropogenic Co2 emissions, there is cause for great concern over the threat carbon dioxide
poses for the health of our oceans.
Addressing positive feedback loops is the key internal link to warming they
contribute to temperature increases and warming solutions wont work
without addressing them first
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2006
(Feedback Loops in Global Cimate Change Point to a Very Hot 21st Century, Published in
Science Daily, online: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/05/060522151248.htm)
Using as a source the Vostok ice core, which provides information about glacial-interglacial
cycles over hundreds of thousands of years, the researchers were able to estimate the amounts
of carbon dioxide and methane, two of the principal greenhouse gases, that were released
into the atmosphere in response to past global warming trends. Combining their estimates
with standard climate model assumptions, they calculated how much these rising concentration
levels caused global temperatures to climb, further increasing carbon dioxide and methane
emissions, and so on.
The results indicate a future that is going to be hotter than we think, said Margaret Torn,
who heads the Climate Change and Carbon Management program for Berkeley Labs Earth
Sciences Division, and is an Associate Adjunct Professor in UC Berkeleys Energy and Resources
Group. She and John Harte, a UC Berkeley professor in the Energy and Resources Group and in
the Ecosystem Sciences Division of the College of Natural Resources, have co-authored a paper
entitled: Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future
warming, which appears in the May, 2006 issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters
(GRL).
In their GRL paper, Torn and Harte make the case that the current climate change models,
which are predicting a global temperature increase of as much as 5.8 degrees Celsius by the
end of the century, may be off by nearly 2.0 degrees Celsius because they only take into
consideration the increased greenhouse gas concentrations that result from anthropogenic
(human) activities.
If the past is any guide, then when our anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions cause global
warming, it will alter earth system processes, resulting in additional atmospheric greenhouse
gas loading and additional warming, said Torn.
Torn is an authority on carbon and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, and on the
impacts of anthropogenic activities on terrestrial ecosystem processes. Harte has been a leading
figure for the past two decades on climate-ecosystem interactions, and has authored or coauthored numerous books on environmental sciences, including the highly praised Consider a
Spherical Cow: A Course in Environmental Problem Solving.
In their GRL paper, Torn and Harte provide an answer to those who have argued that
uncertainties in climate change models make it equally possible that future temperature
increases could as be smaller or larger than what is feared. This argument has been based on
assumptions about the uncertainties in climate prediction.
However, in their GRL paper, Torn and Harte conclude that: A rigorous investigation of the
uncertainties in climate change prediction reveals that there is a higher risk that we will
experience more severe, not less severe, climate change than is currently forecast.
Serious scientific debate about global warming has ended, but the process of refining and
improving climate models called general circulation models or GCMs - is ongoing. Current
GCMs project temperature increases at the end of this century based on greenhouse gas
emissions scenarios due to anthropogenic activities. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, for
example, has already climbed from a pre-industrial 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm
today, causing a rise in global temperature of 0.6 degrees Celsius. The expectations are for
atmospheric carbon dioxide to soar beyond 550 ppm by 2100 unless major changes in energy
supply and demand are implemented.
Concerning as these projection are, they do not take into account additional amounts of
carbon dioxide and methane released when rising temperatures trigger ecological and
chemical responses, such as warmer oceans giving off more carbon dioxide, or warmer soils
decomposing faster, liberating ever increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. The
problem has been an inability to quantify the impact of Natures responses in the face of
overwhelming anthropogenic input. Torn and Harte were able to provide this critical
information by examining the paleo data stored in ancient ice cores.
Paleo data can provide us with an estimate of the greenhouse gas increases that are a natural
consequence of global warming, said Torn. In the absence of human activity, these
greenhouse gas increases are the dominant feedback mechanism.
In examining data recorded in the Vostok ice core, scientists have known that cyclic variations in
the amount of sunlight reaching the earth trigger glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the
magnitude of warming and cooling temperatures cannot be explained by variations in sunlight
alone. Instead, large rises in temperatures are more the result of strong upsurges in
atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations set-off by the initial warming.
Using deuterium-corrected temperature records for the ice cores, which yield hemispheric
rather than local temperature conditions, GCM climate sensitivity, and a mathematical formula
for quantifying feedback effects, Torn and Harte calculated the magnitude of the greenhouse
gas-temperature feedback on temperature.
Our results reinforce the fact that every bit of greenhouse gas we put into the atmosphere
now is committing us to higher global temperatures in the future and we are already near the
highest temperatures of the past 700,000 years, Torn said. At this point, mitigation of
greenhouse gas emissions is absolutely critical.
The feedback loop from greenhouse gas concentrations also has a reverse effect, the authors
state, in that reduced atmospheric levels can enhance the cooling of global temperatures. This
presents at least the possibility of extra rewards if greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere
could be rolled back, but the challenge is great as Harte explained.
If we reduce emissions so much that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide actually
starts to come down and the global temperature also starts to decrease, then the feedback
would work for us and speed the recovery, Harte said. However, if we reduce emissions by an
amount that greatly reduces the rate at which the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere
increases, but don't cut emissions back to the point where the carbon dioxide level actually
decreases, then the positive feedback still works against us.
These feedback loops have a meaningful effect even a 2 degree rise in global
temperatures causes catastrophic changes
Parry, LiveScience writer, 2011
(Wynne, 2 degrees of warming a recipe for disaster, NASA scientist says, online:
http://www.livescience.com/17340-agu-climate-sensitivity-nasa-hansen.html)
SAN FRANCISCO The target set by nations in global warming talks won't prevent the
devastating effects of global warming, according to climate scientist James Hansen, director of
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
The history of ancient climate changes, which occurred over millions of years in the planet's
history as it moved in and out of ice ages, offers the best insight into how humans' greenhouse
gas emissions will alter the planet, Hansen said here today (Dec. 6) at the annual American
Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting. And his research suggests the climate is more sensitive to
greenhouse gas emissions than had been suspected.
"What the paleoclimate record tells us is that the dangerous level of global warming is less than
what we thought a few years ago," Hansen said. "The target that has been talked about in
international negotiations for 2 degrees of warming is actually a prescription for long-term
disaster."
Hansen is referring to the goal set by climate negotiators in Copenhagen in 2009 to keep the
increase in the average global temperature below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius).
That cap was put in place as a means to avoid the most devastating effects of global warming.
[How 2 Degrees Will Change Earth]
However, signs of changes that will exacerbate the situation, such as the loss of ice sheets that
will raise sea level and change how much sunlight is reflected off the planet's surface, are
already appearing, according to Hansen.
Two degrees of warming will lead to an ice-free Arctic and sea-level rise in the tens of meters,
Hansen told LiveScience. "We can't say how long that will take, *but+its clear it's a different
planet."
Climate negotiators, currently gathered in Durban, South Africa, are working with that 2-degree
goal, trying to figure out ways to meet it.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated, the Earth's temperature is expected to
increase by about 5.4 degrees F (3 degrees C) thanks to short-term effects, such as an increase
in water vapor in the atmosphere and changes in cloud cover , which will amplify or weaken
the temperature increase. But this is only a small piece of the warming that is expected,
according to Hansen's research.
Some fast-feedback effects show up within decades, and some of these show up only when
other parts of the system , particularly the oceans, which warm slowly, catch up with
atmospheric warming. This can take centuries.
There are also slow-feedback effects that are expected to amplify global warming, particularly,
the melting of ice sheets. The darker ground beneath the ice and the meltwater that pools on
top of it absorbs more sunlight, warming the planet even more.
Warming will cause extinction a single feedback loop could be the difference
between life and death for the entire planet
Ahmed, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and
Development at Brunel University, 2010
(Nafeez Ahmed, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development,
professor of International Relations and globalization at Brunel University and the University of
Sussex, Spring/Summer 2010, Globalizing Insecurity: The Convergence of Interdependent
Ecological, Energy, and Economic Crises, Spotlight on Security, Volume 5, Issue 2, online)
Perhaps the most notorious indicator is anthropogenic global warming. The landmark 2007
Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
which warned that at then-current rates of increase of fossil fuel emissions, the earths global
average temperature would likely rise by 6C by the end of the 21st century creating a largely
uninhabitable planet was a wake-up call to the international community.[v] Despite the
pretensions of climate sceptics, the peer-reviewed scientific literature has continued to
produce evidence that the IPCCs original scenarios were wrong not because they were too
alarmist, but on the contrary, because they were far too conservative. According to a paper in
the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, current CO2 emissions are worse than all
six scenarios contemplated by the IPCC. This implies that the IPCCs worst-case six-degree
scenario severely underestimates the most probable climate trajectory under current rates of
emissions.[vi] It is often presumed that a 2C rise in global average temperatures under an
atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses at 400 parts per million (ppm) constitutes a
safe upper limit beyond which further global warming could trigger rapid and abrupt climate
changes that, in turn, could tip the whole earth climate system into a process of irreversible,
runaway warming.[vii] Unfortunately, we are already well past this limit, with the level of
greenhouse gasses as of mid-2005 constituting 445 ppm.[viii] Worse still, cutting-edge scientific
data suggests that the safe upper limit is in fact far lower. James Hansen, director of the NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, argues that the absolute upper limit for CO2 emissions is
350 ppm: If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of
seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.*ix+ A wealth of scientific studies has attempted to
explore the role of positive-feedback mechanisms between different climate sub-systems, the
operation of which could intensify the warming process. Emissions beyond 350 ppm over
decades are likely to lead to the total loss of Arctic sea-ice in the summer triggering magnified
absorption of sun radiation, accelerating warming; the melting of Arctic permafrost triggering
massive methane injections into the atmosphere, accelerating warming; the loss of half the
Amazon rainforest triggering the momentous release of billions of tonnes of stored carbon,
accelerating warming; and increased microbial activity in the earths soil leading to further huge
releases of stored carbon, accelerating warming; to name just a few. Each of these feedback
sub-systems alone is sufficient by itself to lead to irreversible, catastrophic effects that could
tip the whole earth climate system over the edge.[x] Recent studies now estimate that the
continuation of business-as-usual would lead to global warming of three to four degrees
Celsius before 2060 with multiple irreversible, catastrophic impacts; and six, even as high as
eight, degrees by the end of the century a situation endangering the survival of all life on
earth .[xi]
support systems on which humans and other species depend. And these impacts are arriving
faster than many climate scientists predicted. Recent studies have revealed changes in the
breeding and migratory patterns of animals worldwide, from sea turtles to polar bears.
Mountain glaciers are shrinking at ever-faster rates, threatening water supplies for millions of
people and plant and animal species. Average global sea level has risen 20-25 centimeters (8-10
inches) since 1901, due mainly to thermal expansion; more than 2.5 centimeters (one inch) of
this rise occurred over the past decade. A recent report by the International Climate Change
Taskforce, co-chaired by Republican U.S. Senator Olympia Snowe, concludes that climate change
is the "single most important long term issue that the planet faces." It warns that if average
global temperatures increase more than two degrees Celsiuswhich will likely occur in a
matter of decades if we continue with business-as-usualthe world will reach the "point of no
return," where societies may be unable to cope with the accelerating rates of change. Existing
threats to security will be amplified as climate change has increasing impacts on regional
water supplies, agricultural productivity, human and ecosystem health, infrastructure,
financial flows and economies, and patterns of international migration. Specific threats to
human welfare and global security include: Climate change will undermine efforts to
mitigate world poverty, directly threatening people's homes and livelihoods through
increased storms, droughts, disease, and other stressors. Not only could this impede
development, it might also increase national and regional instability and intensify income
disparities between rich and poor. This, in turn, could lead to military confrontations over
distribution of the world's wealth, or could feed terrorism or transnational crime. Rising
temperatures, droughts, and floods, and the increasing acidity of ocean waters, coupled with
an expanding human population, could further stress an already limited global food supply,
dramatically increasing food prices and potentially triggering internal unrest or the use of food
as a weapon. Even the modest warming experienced to date has affected fisheries and
agricultural productivity, with a 10 percent decrease in corn yields across the U.S. Midwest seen
per degree of warming. Altered rainfall patterns could heighten tensions over the use of
shared water bodies and increase the likelihood of violent conflict over water resources. It is
estimated that about 1.4 billion people already live in areas that are water-stressed. Up to 5
billion people (most of the world's current population) could be living in such regions by 2025.
Widespread impacts of climate change could lead to waves of migration, threatening
international stability. One study estimates that by 2050, as many as 150 million people may
have fled coastlines vulnerable to rising sea levels, storms or floods, or agricultural land too arid
to cultivate. Historically, migration to urban areas has stressed limited services and
infrastructure, inciting crime or insurgency movements, while migration across borders has
frequently led to violent clashes over land and resources.
Scenario B is Biodiversity
Ocean acidification undermines biodiversity creates algae blooms that release
toxins, crushing entire ecosystems
Moore, PhD and research scientist, 2013
(Stephanie Moore [earned her Ph.D. from the University of New South Wales, Australia, in 2005.
She then completed her post-doctoral training with the University of Washingtons Climate
Impacts Group and the School of Oceanography (2005-2008). She is currently a research
scientist with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and visiting scientist with the
Northwest Fisheries Science Center.+, Impacts of Climate Change on the Occurrence of Harmful
Algal Blooms, May 2013, Online:
http://www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/documents/climatehabs.pdf)
Climate change is predicted to change many environmental conditions that could affect the
natural properties of fresh and marine waters both in the US and worldwide. Changes in these
factors could favor the growth of harmful algal blooms and habitat changes such that marine
HABs can invade and occur in freshwater. An increase in the occurrence and intensity of
harmful algal blooms may negatively impact the environment, human health, and the
economy for communities across the US and around the world. The purpose of this fact sheet is
to provide climate change researchers and decisionmakers a summary of the potential impacts
of climate change on harmful algal blooms in freshwater and marine ecosystems. Although
much of the evidence presented in this fact sheet suggests that the problem of harmful algal
blooms may worsen under future climate scenarios, further research is needed to better
understand the association between climate change and harmful algae. Algae occur naturally in
marine and fresh waters.
Under favorable conditions that include adequate light availability, warm waters, and high nutrient levels, algae can rapidly grow and multiply causing
blooms. Blooms
of algae can cause damage to aquatic environments by blocking sunlight and depleting
oxygen required by other aquatic organisms, restricting their growth and survival. Some species of algae, including golden and red algae and
certain types of cyanobacteria, can produce potent toxins that can cause adverse health effects to wildlife
and humans, such as damage to the liver and nervous system. When algal blooms impair aquatic ecosystems or
have the potential to affect human health, they are known as harmful algal blooms (HABs). In recent decades, scientists have observed
an increase in the frequency, severity and geographic distribution of HABs worldwide. Recent
research suggests that the impacts of climate change may promote the growth and dominance of harmful
algal blooms through a variety of mechanisms including: Warmer water temperatures Changes in salinity Increases in
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations Changes in rainfall patterns Intensifying of coastal upwelling Sea level rise.
Climate change may cause summer droughts to increase in intensity and duration worldwide. During a drought, the amount of water flowing into lakes
and reservoirs decreases. Combined with warmer temperatures that cause more evaporation, water levels of fresh water bodies decrease. This causes
the salinity, or concentration of salt in the water body, to increase. Although certain toxin-producing cyanobacteria are quite salt tolerant, temporary
increases in salinity can also cause salt stress leading to leakage of cells and the release of toxins. Increases in salinity during
drought conditions can also create favorable conditions for the invasion of marine algae into what are usually
freshwater ecosystems. This is currently occurring in our southwestern and south central US lakes
where marine alga, Prymnesium parvum, or golden algae, has been increasing since 2000, causing significant fish kills in inland
waters. All algae, including harmful species, require carbon dioxide (CO2) for photosynthesis. Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide will
increase the levels of dissolved carbon dioxide in marine and freshwater ecosystems, favoring those
algae that can grow faster in elevated dissolved carbon dioxide conditions. In addition, cyanobacteria that can float to the surface have a distinct
advantage over other competing algae because they can directly utilize carbon dioxide from the atmosphere . As atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations increase due to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, cyanobacteria
that can float to the surface will have greater access to carbon dioxide for growth, increasing the
occurrence of harmful algal blooms. This also could lead to changes in the chemistry of ambient
waters. Higher photosynthesis converts carbon dioxide into living algal biomass, some of which dies and settles to the
bottom. The eventual decomposition of this surplus organic material is analogous to our own
breathing activity because it consumes oxygen and increases carbon dioxide in areas with poor
circulation. This can contribute to increases in acidity (i.e., lower pH). This ecological source of
acidification is added to the direct acidifying effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide, commonly known as ocean acidification.
Like temperature, these changes in water chemistry can change the competitive relationships between HABs and other algae, and can also change the
ability of zooplankton to control HABs through their grazing activity.
(PBS NewsHour, interviewing Wysocki owner of Chelsea Farms, Feely National Oceanic and
Atmopheric Marine Environment Laboratory, Ocean Acidifications Impact on Oysters and
Other Shellfish, transcript available online:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification's+impact+on+oysters+and+other+sh
ellfish)
SHINA WYSOCKI: Ocean acidification is a huge problem. And there are so many things. It's the
currents, it's the carbon dioxide, it's the aragonite. And it's most of which, I understand a tiny
fraction of, but what I do understand is when the nursery calls on the phone and says there's no
oyster seed to ship, we don't have any.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Seed production in the Northwest plummeted by as much as 80 percent
between 2005 and 2009.
RICHARD FEELY, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Marine
Environmental Laboratory: And what we found was just very dramatic. When the waters were
highly corrosive, the organisms died within two days. The oyster larvae just simply died. When
the water was high pH, they did just fine. It was just like a switch.
HARI SREENIVASAN: That switch is happening around the world as oceans take in large
amounts of carbon dioxide, or CO2, says Dick Feely, a senior scientist at the National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.
RICHARD FEELY: Over the last 200 years or so, we have released about two trillion tons of
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. And about a quarter of that, or 550 billion tons of carbon
dioxide, have been absorbed by the oceans.
HARI SREENIVASAN: All that CO2 changes the chemistry of the water by making it more acidic,
30 percent more since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Because of natural tide and wave
patterns, the Pacific Northwest Coast has been hit hardest, with corrosive water being brought
up from the deep ocean to the surface, where shellfish live. That's why Washington's shellfish
industry, worth $270 million a year and responsible for thousands of jobs, is the first to feel the
effects of this global phenomenon, says Bill Dewey of Taylor Shellfish, the largest producer of
farmed shellfish in the country. In a single night, Taylor's growers will bring in about 50,000
oysters.
BILL DEWEY, Taylor Shellfish Farms: This is the first place these deep corrosive waters are
coming to the surface. And we're an industry that relies on calcifiers, so we're the first to see the
effects and to scream about it.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Ocean acidification acts a lot like osteoporosis, the condition that causes
bones to become brittle in humans. For oysters, scallops and other shellfish, lower pH means
less carbonate, which they rely on to build their essential shells. As acidity increases, shells
become thinner, growth slows down and death rates rise.
prevent outbreaks brown tides caused by planktonic algae that cloud the water and prevent
light from reaching seagrasses growing in the bay. As these algae die, sink to the bottom and
decay, they also rob the Bay of oxygen (Kassner 1993; Cerrato et al 2004). The uptake of
nutrients and localized impacts on water quality documented for blue mussels, Mytilus edulis,
using flume experiments (Asmus and Asmus 1991) and field observations in European estuaries
suggest that robust populations of mussels are capable of consuming a considerable fraction of
the phytoplankton from overlying waters (Haamer and Rodhe 2000).
Ecosystem modeling and mesocosm studies have indicated that restoring shellfish populations
to even a modest fraction of their historic abundance could improve water quality and aid in
the recovery of seagrasses (Newell and Koch 2004; Ulanowicz and Tuttle 1992). Field studies
have also revealed positive feedback mechanisms from shellfish populations that promote
greater seagrass productivity (Peterson and Heck 1999).
The Habitat Provider
In addition to their impacts as filter feeders, some species of bivalve shellfish such as oysters
and mussels form reefs or complex structures that provide refuge or hard substrate for other
species of marine plants and animals to colonize. For example, the eastern oyster Crassostrea
virginica, forms three-dimensional reefs as generations of oysters settle and grow attached to
one another (Zimmerman et al 1989; Hargis and Haven 1999; Steimle and Zetlin 2000). Reefs
can occur subtidally, often associated with edges of channels, as well as in intertidal habitats,
keeping pace with sea-level rise (DeAlteris 1988; McCormick-Ray 1998 and 2005; Hargis and
Haven 1999). These reefs represent a temperate analog to coral reefs that occur in more
tropical environments. Both kinds of reefs are biogenic, being formed by the accumulation of
colonial animals, and both provide complex physical structure and surface area used by scores
of other species as a temporary or permanent habitat. A single square meter of oyster reef ay
provide 50 square meters of surface area in its cracks, crevices, and convolutions, providing
attachment points and shelter for an array of plants and animals (Bahr and Lanier 1981). Given
the variety of species and complex interactions of species associated with oyster reefs, they
have been suggested as essential fish habitat, which is an important distinction for fisheries
management in the U.S. (Coen et al. 1999). Unfortunately, many of the reefs that were once so
prevalent have been mined away through fishing and dredging activities, and their remnant
footprints have been silted over in the past century (Rothschild et al. 1994, Hargis and Haven
1999). The Shoreline Protector In some regions, intertidal oyster reefs and, likely, mussel beds
serve as natural breakwaters that can stabilize shore- lines and reduce the amount of
suspended sediment in the adjacent waters. This reduction in suspended sediment improves
water clarity and protects shellfish, seagrasses and other species. Shellfish restoration,
therefore, offers a way to recapture this important ecosystem service (Meyer et al 1997) in
some locations. Given the increased understanding of the various roles that shellfish play in
nearshore ecosystems, there is increasing interest in re-establishing robust and self-sustaining
native shellfish populations as a component of coastal ecosystems. Indeed, the restoration of
shellfish is increasingly invoked as a key strategy for rehabilitating and conserving marine and
estuarine systems because of these anticipated ecosystem services. However, surprisingly little
effort has been made to document the degree to which these ecosystem services are provided
through restoration activities in actual practice.
Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist,
just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems, but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised
in political debates. For example, besides significant tourism values - the most economically
valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide, worldwide - coral reefs protect against storms
and dampen other environmental fluctuations, services worth more than ten times the reefs'
value for food production. n856 Waste treatment is another significant, non-extractive
ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. n857 More generally, "ocean
ecosystems play a major role in the global geochemical cycling of all the elements that
represent the basic building blocks of living organisms, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus,
and sulfur, as well as other less abundant but necessary elements." n858 In a very real and
direct sense, therefore, human degradation of marine ecosystems impairs the planet's ability
to support life.
Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems.
Current evidence shows that, in general, an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face
of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity , "indicating that more diverse
ecosystems are more stable." n859 Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their
biodiversity. [*265] Most ecologists agree that the complexity of interactions and degree of
interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any other marine
environment. This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued
components is also complex and that many otherwise insignificant species have strong effects
on sustaining the rest of the reef system. n860 Thus, maintaining and restoring the biodiversity
of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and restoring the ecosystem services that they
provide. Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of
marine disasters, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. n861 Similar calculations could derive
preservation values for marine wilderness. However, economic value, or economic value
equivalents, should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean
ecosystems. Ethical arguments also have considerable force and merit." n862 At the forefront of
such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea - and about the
actual effect of human activities on marine ecosystems. The United States has traditionally
failed to protect marine ecosystems because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the
oceans, but we now know that such harm is occurring - even though we are not completely sure
about causation or about how to fix every problem. Ecosystems like the NWHI coral reef
ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really
do not know what we are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness
whenever we can - especially when the United States has within its territory relatively pristine
marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world. We may not know much about the sea, but
we do know this much: if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves, and we will take most of the
biosphere with us. The Black Sea is almost dead, n863 its once-complex and productive
ecosystem almost entirely replaced by a monoculture of comb jellies, "starving out fish and
dolphins, emptying fishermen's nets, and converting the web of life into brainless, wraith-like
blobs of jelly." n864 More importantly, the Black Sea is not necessarily unique. The Black Sea is
a microcosm of what is happening to the ocean systems at large. The stresses piled up:
overfishing, oil spills, industrial discharges, nutrient pollution, wetlands destruction, the
introduction of an alien species. The sea weakened, slowly at first, then collapsed with [*266]
shocking suddenness . The lessons of this tragedy should not be lost to the rest of us, because
much of what happened here is being repeated all over the world. The ecological stresses
imposed on the Black Sea were not unique to communism. Nor, sadly, was the failure of
governments to respond to the emerging crisis. n865 Oxygen-starved "dead zones" appear
with increasing frequency off the coasts of major cities and major rivers, forcing marine
animals to flee and killing all that cannot. n866 Ethics as well as enlightened self-interest thus
suggest that the United States should protect fully-functioning marine ecosystems wherever
possible - even if a few fishers go out of business as a result.
oxygen from the water. A report by the United Nations Environment Programme found that
such coastal dead zones have doubled in number since 1995, with some extending over 27,000
square miles, about the size of the Republic of Ireland. Among the worst affected are the Baltic
Sea, the Black Sea, and parts of the Mediterranean. Perhaps the biggest of all is found in the
Gulf of Mexico, where the Mississippi carries thousands of tons of agrochemicals into the sea
every year. Recent research has revealed that about 250m years ago average oxygen levels in
oceans fell almost to zero a reduction associated with dramatic changes in climate that
resulted in the extinction of 95% of the worlds species.
return. Also unlike in the nineteenth century, today the density of trade, investment, and
production networks across international borders raises even more the costs of war. A
Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to take one of the most plausible cases of a future interstate war,
would pose for the Chinese communist regime daunting economic costs, both domestic and
international. Taken together, these changes in the economy of violence mean that the
international system is far more primed for peace than the autocratic revivalists acknowledge.
The autocratic revival thesis neglects other key features of the international system as well. In
the nineteenth century, rising states faced an international environment in which they could
reasonably expect to translate their growing clout into geopolitical changes that would benefit
themselves. But in the twenty-first century, the status quo is much more difficult to overturn.
Simple comparisons between China and the United States with regard to aggregate economic
size and capability do not reflect the fact that the United States does not stand alone but
rather is the head of a coalition of liberal capitalist states in Europe and East Asia whose
aggregate assets far exceed those of China or even of a coalition of autocratic states. Moreover,
potentially revisionist autocratic states, most notably China and Russia, are already substantial
players and stakeholders in an ensemble of global institutions that make up the status quo,
not least the UN Security Council (in which they have permanent seats and veto power). Many
other global institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, are
configured in such a way that rising states can increase their voice only by buying into the
institutions. The pathway to modernity for rising states is not outside and against the status
quo but rather inside and through the flexible and accommodating institutions of the liberal
international order. The fact that these autocracies are capitalist has profound implications for
the nature of their international interests that point toward integration and accommodation in
the future. The domestic viability of these regimes hinges on their ability to sustain high
economic growth rates, which in turn is crucially dependent on international trade and
investment; today's autocracies may be illiberal, but they remain fundamentally dependent on a
liberal international capitalist system. It is not surprising that China made major domestic
changes in order to join the WTO or that Russia is seeking to do so now. The dependence of
autocratic capitalist states on foreign trade and investment means that they have a
fundamental interest in maintaining an open, rulebased economic system. (Although these
autocratic states do pursue bilateral trade and investment deals, particularly in energy and raw
materials, this does not obviate their more basic dependence on and commitment to the WTO
order.) In the case of China, because of its extensive dependence on industrial exports, the
WTO may act as a vital bulwark against protectionist tendencies in importing states. Given
their position in this system, which so serves their interests, the autocratic states are unlikely to
become champions of an alternative global or regional economic order, let alone spoilers intent
on seriously damaging the existing one. The prospects for revisionist behavior on the part of the
capitalist autocracies are further reduced by the large and growing social networks across
international borders. Not only have these states joined the world economy, but their people
particularly upwardly mobile and educated elites have increasingly joined the world
community. In large and growing numbers, citizens of autocratic capitalist states are
participating in a sprawling array of transnational educational, business, and avocational
networks. As individuals are socialized into the values and orientations of these networks,
stark: "us versus them" cleavages become more difficult to generate and sustain. As the
Harvard political scientist Alastair Iain Johnston has argued, China's ruling elite has also been
socialized, as its foreign policy establishment has internalized the norms and practices of the
international diplomatic community. China, far from cultivating causes for territorial dispute
with its neighbors, has instead sought to resolve numerous historically inherited border
conflicts, acting like a satisfied status quo state. These social and diplomatic processes and
developments suggest that there are strong tendencies toward normalization operating here.
Finally, there is an emerging set of global problems stemming from industrialism and
economic globalization that will create common interests across states regardless of regime
type. Autocratic China is as dependent on imported oil as are democratic Europe, India, Japan,
and the United States, suggesting an alignment of interests against petroleum-exporting
autocracies, such as Iran and Russia. These states share a common interest in price stability and
supply security that could form the basis for a revitalization of the International Energy Agency,
the consumer association created during the oil turmoil of the 1970s. The emergence of global
warming and climate change as significant problems also suggests possibilities for alignments
and cooperative ventures cutting across the autocratic-democratic divide. Like the United
States, China is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gas accumulation but also likely to
be a major victim of climate-induced desertification and coastal flooding. Its rapid
industrialization and consequent pollution means that China, like other developed countries, will
increasingly need to import technologies and innovative solutions for environmental
management. Resource scarcity and environmental deterioration pose global threats that no
state will be able to solve alone, thus placing a further premium on political integration and
cooperative institution building. Analogies between the nineteenth century and the twentyfirst are based on a severe mischaracterization of the actual conditions of the new era. The
declining utility of war, the thickening of international transactions and institutions, and
emerging resource and environmental interdependencies together undercut scenarios of
international conflict and instability based on autocratic-democratic rivalry and autocratic
revisionism. In fact, the conditions of the twenty-first century point to the renewed value of
international integration and cooperation.
Plan
Plan: The United States Federal Government should develop a National
Program Office for monitoring ocean acidification.
The existing observing networks are inadequate for the task of monitoring ocean
acidification and its effects. However, these networks can be used as the backbone of a
broader monitoring network.
RECOMMENDATION: The National Ocean Acidification Program should review existing and emergent
observing networks to identify existing measurements, chemical and biological, that could
become part of a comprehensive ocean acidification observing network and to identify any
critical spatial or temporal gaps in the current capacity to monitor ocean acidification. The Program
should work to fill these gaps by ensuring that existing coastal and oceanic carbon observing sites adequately measure the seawater carbonate system
and a range of bio logical parameters; identifying and leveraging other long-term ocean monitoring programs by adding relevant chemical and
biological measurements at existing and new sites; adding additional time-series sites, repeat transects, and in situ sensors in key areas that are
currently undersampled. These should be prioritized based on ecological and societal vulnerabilities; deploying and field testing new remote sensing
and in situ technologies for observing ocean acidification and its impacts; and supporting the development and application of new data analysis and
modeling techniques for integrating satellite, ship-based, and in situ observations.
RECOMMENDATION: The National Ocean Acidification Program should plan for the long-term sustainability of an integrated ocean acidification
observation network.
Ocean acidification research is still in its infancy. A great deal of research has
been conducted and new information gathered in the past several years, and it is clear from
this research that ocean acidification may threaten marine ecosystems and the services they
provide. However, much more information is needed in order to fully understand and address
these changes. Most previous research on the biological effects of ocean acidification has
dealt with acute responses in a few species , and very little is known about the impacts of
acidification on many ecologically or economically important organisms, their populations,
and communities; the effects on a variety of physiological and biogeochemical processes; and
the capacity of organisms to adapt to projected changes in ocean chemistry (Boyd et al., 2008). There
is a need for research that provides a mechanistic understanding of physiological effects,
elucidates the acclimation and adaptation potential of organisms, and allows scaling up to
ecosystem effects, taking into account the role and response of humans in those systems and
how best to support decision making in affected systems. There is also a need to understand
these effects in light of multiple and potentially compounding environmental stressors, such
as increasing temperature, pollution, and overfishing. The committee identifies eight broad research areas that address
these critical information gaps; detailed research recommendations on specific regions and topics are contained in other community-based reports
(i.e., Raven et al., 2005; Kleypas et al., 2006; Fabry et al., 2008a; Orr et al., 2009; Joint et al., 2009). CONCLUSION: Present
knowledge is
insufficient to guide federal and state agencies in evaluating potential impacts for
management purposes.
(Elizabeth Jewett, Mary Boatman (BOEM), Phillip Taylor and Priscilla Viana (formerly with NSF),
Todd Capson (formerly with DOS), Katherine Nixon (formerly with U.S. Navy) and Fredric
Lipshultz (formerly with NASA), Strategic Plan for Federal Research and Monitoring of Ocean
Acidification, Online:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/iwgoa_strategic_plan_march_2014.pdf)
Beyond linking to existing education and outreach initiatives, the National Ocean Acidification
Program Office will have to forge new partnerships. The need for new partnerships will
become clear after an assessment of current efforts has highlighted successful strategies and
important gaps. New partnerships and initiatives will be streamlined with ongoing efforts as to
avoid redundancy and will target education and outreach messages and key audiences where
gaps have been identified.
The National Ocean Acidification Program Office can play a pivotal role in uniting key partners
by promoting working relationships between other National Science and Technology Council
Interagency Working Groups such as the Interagency Working Group on Aquaculture, U.S.
agencies, NGOs, academia, and private businesses throughout the world at ongoing and
developing venues. New partnerships may take the form of public-private partnerships, which
have proven successful at uniting public, private, and philanthropic partners to address complex,
cross-cutting issues.
International partnerships may form via new initiatives that address emerging cross-cutting
issues while striving to promote sustainable development on bilateral, regional, and global
levels. As previously mentioned, formal science and technology agreements can unite
governments in research partnerships, which may serve education and outreach needs. Science
and technology cooperation, in addition to grants for international cooperation, supports the
establishment of science-based industries, encourages investment in national science
infrastructure, education, and application of scientific standards, and it promotes
international dialogue. Additionally, the National Ocean Acidification Program Office can form
new international partnerships by leveraging existing relationships established through U.S.
embassies, consulates, and missions. By building off of existing relationships, an international
engagement strategy will have more relevant and achievable goals.
Absent the plan, agency overlap will prevent solutions to ocean acidification
Ekstrom, Sea Grant California, 2008
(Julia A. Ekstrom, Sea Grant California, Navigating Fragmented Ocean Law in the California
Current: Tools to Identify and Measure Gaps and Overlaps for Ecosystem-Based Management,
site: http://www.opc.ca.gov)
Despite institutional challenges, confronting ocean acidification is not a lost cause. To move
forward, it is crucial to recognize that no institution can be created as if it exists or will exist in
a vacuum. As such, we can work within the context of the existing governance by either
proposing to modify what exists or to develop entirely new institutions. It is critical that a new
institution be created as a productive partner in the existing web of institutions and not cause
unintended interplay among overlapping jurisdictions (Ebbin 2002). Thus, baseline data about
existing institutions provides policymakers and stakeholders with a blue print of the regulatory
environment in regard to ocean acidification, so they can determine the most effective
strategies toward realistic resolution of the issue. For example, there are numerous laws
pertaining to the regulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, a causal factor in the problem of
ocean acidification. Similarly, there are monitoring systems and regulations in place that pertain
to pH balance of water. Although these laws were not written to address ocean acidification,
they can still play a role in the institutional environment where, if reasonable, a new institution
that directly tackles ocean acidification could be developed. The amount of governing law as a
whole that inherently, though peripherally, relates to ocean acidification is enormous as a
consequence of sector-based management. Historically, in the United States and many other
developed countries, management of the oceans has been conducted within sectors or
industries, such as fishing, mining, shipping, and recreation (USCOP 2004, Elliott et al. 2006,
Cao and Wong 2007). Government agencies, along with other ocean-related stakeholders,
recognize that this approach is no longer effective. With the increases in coastal populations
(and its associated development), ocean pollution, and technological advances, the human
footprint left on the oceans and coasts is visible everywhere on earth (Halpern et al. 2008). With
industry priorities leading regulation, marine and coastal uses (and abuses) were developed in a
piecemeal manner within the sectors. As a result, sector-based management has created a
governance system riddled with gaps and overlaps in ocean law and regulation (Knecht et al.
1988, USCOP 2004, Crowder et al. 2006). Fragmented decision-making is fraught with
problems. One problem is the negative consequences that result from overlapping
jurisdictions, such as when one institutions regulation conflicts with the actions or objectives
of another. Some of these overlaps can be mitigated through improved coordination or
collaboration. Another common problem associated with fragmented management is the
mismatch of institutions in the context of the ecosystem. This is referred to as the problem of
fit, which calls attention to the potentially harmful ecological implications of developing
institutions without adequate consideration of the relevant ecosystems properties (Young
2002, Folke et al. 2007). Clearly the fragmented nature of sector- based policy-making is no
longer adequate for the complexity of modern ocean uses and the severity of poor
management consequences (Pew Oceans Commission 2003, USCOP 2004). New methods for
effective management call for a broader perspective and better use of information about the
institutional environment (Sutinen et al. 2000, Juda and Hennessey 2001).
Mitigation and adaptation strategies are already being developed plan is key
to ensure their effectiveness
NRC (National Research Council), 2010
(National Research Council, Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet The Challenges of
a Changing Ocean, Online:
http://books.google.com/books?id=gVt0AAAAQBAJ&pg=PT17&lpg=PT17&dq=ocean+acidificatio
n+monitoring+current+techniques+insufficiency&source=bl&ots=WoOjp7Dtq4&sig=MXo9hu3OPR5hJFD4jj14jP0OCI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=RVfQU_mIEYvgsATHmYHABw&ved=0CCkQ6AEwA
Q#v=onepage&q=ocean%20acidification%20monitoring%20current%20techniques%20insufficie
ncy&f=false)
The FOARAM Act of 2009 charges an interagency working group with overseeing the
development of impacts assessments and adaptation and mitigation strategies, and with
facilitating communication and outreach with stakeholders. Because ocean acidification is a
relatively new concern and research results are just emerging, it will be challenging to move
from science to decision support. Nonetheless, ocean acidification is occurring now and will
continue for some time. Resource managers will need information in order to adapt to
changes in ocean chemistry and biology. In view of the limited current knowledge about the
impacts of ocean acidification, the first step for the National Ocean Acidification Program will
be to clearly define the problem and the stakeholders (i.e., for whom is this a problem and at
what time scales), and build a process for decision support. It must be noted that a one-time
identification of stakeholders and their concerns will not be adequate in the long term, and it
should be considered an iterative process. As research is performed and the effects of ocean
acidification are better defined, additional stakeholders may be identified, and the results of
the socioeconomic analysis may change. For climate change decision support, there have been
pilot programs within some federal agencies and there is growing interest within the federal
government for developing a national climate service to further develop climate-related
decision support. Similarly, new approaches for ecosystem-based management and marine
spatial planning are also being developed . The National Ocean Acidification Program could
leverage the expertise of these existing and future programs.
Case
Inherency
National Program Office for ocean acidification does not exist
Levison, National Marine Sanctuary Foundation, 2012
(Lara, Federal Policy and Funding Relating to Ocean Acidification,
http://www.nmsfocean.org/files/OA_Report.pdf)
The Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring (FOARAM) Act, passed in 2009,
provides another estimate of funding needs. The bill authorizes $8 million for NOAA in FY09,
ramping up to $20 million in FY12. It authorizes $6 million for NSF in FY09, ramping up to $15
million in 2012, for a FY12 total of $35 million for two agencies. The bill clearly indicates that
other federal agencies should be involved as well, even though specific funding
authorizations are not provided .15
Through discussions with several federal agency officials, we learned that some efforts have
been made to estimate needed investments, over the next ten years, for crosscutting activities
such as a national program office, as well as for funding within agencies. Funding information
collected through these discussions, also displayed in the graph below, should be viewed as a
broad estimate of the need for ocean acidification (OA) funding.
Since significant cuts in the federal budget are likely for FY12 and beyond, flat fund- ing may be
the best-case result, with reductions in agency research budgets a more likely outcome.
The draft Strategic Plan for Research and Monitoring on Ocean Acidification, prepared by the
federal Interagency Working Group on Ocean Acidification (IWG-OA), does not es- timate
budget needs but does outline a number of activities, to be carried out by various federal
agencies, that would require additional investment. The draft Strategic Plan also proposes a
National Program Office and funding for cross-cutting national activities on data management,
technology development and standardization of measurements, and education and outreach.
These interagency activities are important to the success of the Strategic Plan. At this time, only
NOAA has a program office dedicated to ocean acidifica- tion, and cross-cutting activities are
coordinated by the IWG-OA with a minimal amount of staff and funding resources.
There are large information gaps in current oceanic data management. Improved
monitoring is key to an informed public and environmental policy.
maintaining current capabilities, and few new time-series are being established in different
ocean environments. In a similar vein, satellite measurements provide an unprecedented view
of the temporal variations in ocean ecology. The ocean is vast, and the limited number of
research ships move at about the speed of a bicycle, too slow to map the ocean routinely on
ocean basin to global scales. By contrast, a satellite can observe the entire globe, at least the
cloud free areas, in a few days. The detection of gradual trends such as those due to ocean
acidification is challenging. Currently remote sensing can be used to estimate a number of
biological and chemical properties of the ocean (e.g., particulate calcite, pCO2) relevant to
understanding the impacts of an acidifying ocean on ocean ecology and chemistry. Finding
trends in these records requires long, coherent and internally consistent, high-quality global
time series. Potential gaps in data coverage between satellite missions are particular
worrisome; each sensor has its own unique calibration issues, and without overlap of missions
in orbit, it is often impossible to construct a climate quality time record the extends over
multiple missions. At present, the on-going availability of high-quality, climate data records is
not assured during the transition of many satellite ocean measurements from NASA research
to the NOAA/DOD operational NPOESS program. For example, the present NASA satellite ocean
color sensors, needed to determine ocean plankto, are nearing the end of their service life,
and the replacement sensors on NPOESS may not be adequate for the climate community.
Further, refocusing of NASA priorities away from earth science may dramatically limit or full
preclude new ocean satellite missions need to characterize ocean biological dynamics. US ocean
acidification research is also limited, at present, by the size and scope of potential field
research projects. In particular, the current funding environment does not encourage the next
generation of mesocosm (large enclosed tanks or floating bags of water) and ecosystem-scale
field experiments where scientists manipulate environmental conditions (e.g., CO2, pH) and
then examine how ocean biology changes. Many of the major unresolved questions
concerning ocean acidification involve impacts on scales too large to test in the laboratory and
on communities of organisms and species. The infrastructure and logistics for manipulative
experiments is costly, but the scientific payoff can be substantial, and for some problems
manipulation of the ecosystem provides new scientific insights that are not easily attained in
other ways. Deliberate ocean iron release experiments are one such example. European
scientists have made considerable headway on ocean acidification using a dedicated mesocosm
facility for water-column plankton studies, and design studies are underway for manipulative
coral reef acidification experiments, similar in concept to terrestrial Free Air Carbon Experiment
(FACE) system used to study CO2 fertilization effects on terrestrial grasses, shrubs and trees. The
University of Washington is moving forward, with state and private foundation support, on plans
for an ocean mesocosm system, which could be expanded into a facility broadly available to the
US research community. There are also a number of issues with the coordination and
management across science agencies. Interagency coordination on US ocean acidification
research occurs via several related pathways involving both program managers from the federal
science agencies and federal and university scientists. The US Carbon Cycle Science Program
(CCSP) is an interagency partnership (http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/) focused broadly on
the global carbon cycle in the ocean, on land, and in the atmosphere and the interactions with
climate. The CCSP is part of the US Climate Change Science Program, and it has an Interagency
Working Group (agency representatives from NOAA, NASA, NSF, DOC, USGS and a number of
other, more terrestrially oriented agencies) and a Scientific Steering Group. The Carbon Cycle
Science Program initiated an ocean research program, the Ocean Carbon and Climate Change
(OCCC) Program, focused on monitoring the ocean carbon system and predicting its future
behavior. A key issue with regards to ocean acidification is that the Carbon Cycle Science
Program covers only a portion of the ocean acidification problem, namely the controls on the
oceanic uptake of CO2, resulting changes in seawater chemistry and ocean mechanisms that
could damp or accelerate climate change by altering atmospheric CO2levels. Key aspects of the
acidification problem on ecological and socio-economic impacts extend well beyond the purview
of the Carbon Cycle Science Program, however. While there are elements of the US Climate
Change Science Program that could address ecological research and coordination needs on
ocean acidification, the interactions have been minimal and disjoint to date reflecting the
conflicting demands of a program covering such a wide research domain and not focused
specifically on the ocean. There is also an existing, informal interagency effort on ocean
biogeochemistry and ocean acidification, the Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) Program
(http://us-ocb.org/), which is supported by federal program managers at the NSF, NASA, and
NOAA and assisted by input from a scientific steering committee consisting of academic and
government scientists. The OCB Program encompasses the scientific direction of the OCCC
program and also expands into ocean ecology to the degree that it interactions with
biogeochemical cycling. The OCB and OCCC scientific steering groups overlap in membership
and meet jointly. The OCB has taken the lead on organizing a recent major US ocean
acidification workshop last Fall in La Jolla CA (Kleypas et al., 2008b), and is also working to
ensure the appropriate international linkages with emerging and existing ocean acidification
programs supported by the European Union, Australia and Japan. The informal interactions
facilitated by OCB are working well but do not cover the full scope of acidification research, for
example the more fisheries and coral reef oriented work currently supported internally within
NOAA or socioeconomic components of the problem.
These two examples highlight the urgent need for information on not only the consequences
of acidification, but also how affected groups can adapt to these changes. Like climate change,
ocean acidification potentially affects governments, private organizations, and individuals
many of whom have insufficient information to consider fully the options for adaptation,
mitigation, or policy development concerning the potentially far-reaching consequences of
ocean acidification. While human activities have caused changes in the chemistry of the ocean
in the past, none of those changes have been as fundamental, as widespread, and as longlasting as those caused by ocean acidification. The resulting biological and ecological effects may
not be as rapid and dramatic as those caused by other human activities (such as fishing and
coastal pollution) but they will steadily increase over many years to come. Such long and gradual
changes in ocean chemistry and biologypossibly punctuated by sudden ecological
disruptionsundermines the foundation of existing empirical knowledge based on long-term
studies of marine systems. Like climate change, ocean acidification renders past experience an
undependable guide to decision making in the future. To deal effectively with ocean
acidification, decision makers will require new and different kinds of information and will
need to develop new ways of thinking. For some, ocean acidification will be one more reason
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; for others, the priority will be coping with the ecological
effects. But in all circumstances, more information to clarify, inform, and support choices will
be needed. As is the case for climate change, decision support for ocean acidification will
include organized efforts to produce, disseminate, and facilitate the use of data and
information in order to improve the quality and efficacy of (climate- related) decisions
(National Research Council, 2009a). The fundamental issue for ocean acidification decision
support is the quality and timing of relevant information. Although the ongoing changes in
ocean chemistry are well understood, the biological consequences are just now being
elucidated. The problem is complicated because acidification is only one of a collection of
stressful changes occurring in the worlds oceans. It is also fundamentally difficult to
understand how biological effects will cascade through food webs, and modify the structure and
function of marine ecosystems. It may never be possible to predict with precision how and when
acidification will affect a particular ecosystem. Ultimately, the information needed is related to
social and economic impacts and pertain to human dimensions as has been noted in previous
reports (e.g., National Research Council, 2008, 2009a). It is not only important to identify what
user groups will be affected and when, but also to understand how resilient these groups are to
the consequences of acidification and how capable they are of adapting to the changing
circumstances. To begin to address these societal concerns, the report tries to answer the
questions of what to measure and why by identifying high-priority research and monitoring
needs. It also addresses the process by identifying elements of an effective national strategy to
help federal agencies provide the information needed by resource managers facing the impacts
of ocean acidification in the marine environment.
The status quo has no unified parameters for monitoring which are necessary
for data management.
National Research Council, 2010
(National Research Council, By Committee on the Development of an Integrated Science
Strategy for Ocean Acidification Monitoring, Research, and Impacts Assessment, Ocean Studies
Board, Division on Earth and Life Studies. Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet The
Challenges of a Changing Ocean, National Academy of Sciences.
http://books.google.com/books?id=gVt0AAAAQBAJ&pg=PT17&lpg=PT17&dq=ocean+acidificatio
n+monitoring+current+techniques+insufficiency&source=bl&ots=WoOjp7Dtq4&sig=MXo9hu3OPR5hJFD4jj14jP0OCI&hl=en&sa=X&ei=RVfQU_mIEYvgsATHmYHABw&ved=0CCkQ6AEwA
Q#v=onepage&q=ocean%20acidification%20monitoring%20current%20techniques%20insufficie
ncy&f=false)
Many publications have noted the critical need for long-term monitoring of ocean and climate
to document and quantify changes, including ocean acidification, and that the current
observation systems for monitoring these changes are insufficient. A global network of robust
and sustained chemical and biological observations will be necessary to establish a baseline and
to detect and predict changes attributable to acidification. The first step in developing the
observing network will be identification of the appropriate chemical and biological
parameters to be measured by the network and ensuring data quality and consistency across
space and time. There is widespread agreement on the chemical parameters (and methods
and tools for measurement) for monitoring ocean acidification. Unlike the chemical
parameters, there are no agreed upon metrics for biological variables. In part, this is because
the field is young and in part because the biological effects of ocean acidification, from the
cellular to the ecosystem level, are very complex. To account for this complexity, the program
will need to monitor parameters that cover a range of organisms and ecosystems and support
both laboratory-based and field research. The development of new tools and techniques,
including novel autonomous sensors, would greatly improve the ability to make relevant
chemical and biological measurements over space and time and will be necessary to identify and
characterize essential biological indicators concerning the ecosystem consequences of ocean
acidification. As critical biological indicators and metrics are identified, the Program will need
to incorporate those measurements into the research plan, and thus, adaptability in response
to developments in the field is a critical element of the monitoring program. The next step in
developing the observing network will be consideration of available resources. A number of
existing sites and surveys could serve as a backbone for an ocean acidification observational
network, but these existing sites were not designed to observe ocean acidification and thus do
not provide adequate coverage or measurements of key parameters. The current system of
observations would be improved by adding sites and measurements in ecosystems projected
to be vulnerable to ocean acidification (e.g., coral reefs and polar regions) and areas of high
variability (e.g.. coastal regions). Two community-based reports (Fabry et al., 2008a; Feely et aL,
2010) identify vulnerable ecosystems, measurement requirements, and other details for
developing an ocean acidification observational network. Another important consideration is
the sustainability of long-term observations, which remains a perpetual challenge but is
critical given the gradual, cumulative, and long-lasting pressure of ocean acidification.
Integrating the network of ocean acidification observations with other ocean observing
systems will help to ensure sustainability of the acidification-specific observations.
CONCLUSION: The chemical parameters that should be measured as part of an ocean
acidification observational network and the methods to make those measurements are well
established. RECOMMENDATION: The National Program should support a chemical monitoring
program that includes measurements of temperature, salinity, oxygen, nutrients critical to
primary production, and at least two of the following four carbon parameters: dissolved
inorganic carbon, pCO,, total alkalinity, and pH. To account for variability in these values with
depth, measurements should be made not just in the surface layer, but with consideration for
different depth zones of interest, such as the deep sea, the oxygen minimum zone, or in coastal
areas that experience periodic or seasonal hypoxia. CONCLUSION: Standardized, appropriate
parameters for monitoring the biological effects of ocean acidification cannot be determined
until more is known concerning the physiological responses and population consequences of
ocean acidification across a wide range of taxa.
The existing observing networks are inadequate for the task of monitoring ocean
acidification and its effects. However, these networks can be used as the backbone of a
broader monitoring network.
RECOMMENDATION: The National Ocean Acidification Program should review existing and emergent
observing networks to identify existing measurements, chemical and biological, that could
become part of a comprehensive ocean acidification observing network and to identify any
critical spatial or temporal gaps in the current capacity to monitor ocean acidification. The Program
should work to fill these gaps by ensuring that existing coastal and oceanic carbon observing sites adequately measure the seawater carbonate system
and a range of bio logical parameters; identifying and leveraging other long-term ocean monitoring programs by adding relevant chemical and
biological measurements at existing and new sites; adding additional time-series sites, repeat transects, and in situ sensors in key areas that are
currently undersampled. These should be prioritized based on ecological and societal vulnerabilities; deploying and field testing new remote sensing
and in situ technologies for observing ocean acidification and its impacts; and supporting the development and application of new data analysis and
modeling techniques for integrating satellite, ship-based, and in situ observations.
RECOMMENDATION: The National Ocean Acidification Program should plan for the long-term sustainability of an integrated ocean acidification
observation network.
Ocean acidification research is still in its infancy. A great deal of research has
been conducted and new information gathered in the past several years, and it is clear from this
research that ocean acidification may threaten marine ecosystems and the services they
provide. However, much more information is needed in order to fully understand and address
these changes. Most previous research on the biological effects of ocean acidification has
dealt with acute responses in a few species, and very little is known about the impacts of
acidification on many ecologically or economically important organisms, their populations,
and communities; the effects on a variety of physiological and biogeochemical processes; and
the capacity of organisms to adapt to projected changes in ocean chemistry (Boyd et al., 2008). There
is a need for research that provides a mechanistic understanding of physiological effects,
elucidates the acclimation and adaptation potential of organisms, and allows scaling up to
ecosystem effects, taking into account the role and response of humans in those systems and
how best to support decision making in affected systems. There is also a need to understand
these effects in light of multiple and potentially compounding environmental stressors, such
as increasing temperature, pollution, and overfishing. The committee identifies eight broad research areas that
address these critical information gaps; detailed research recommendations on specific regions and topics are contained in other community-based
reports (i.e., Raven et al., 2005; Kleypas et al., 2006; Fabry et al., 2008a; Orr et al., 2009; Joint et al., 2009). CONCLUSION: Present
knowledge is insufficient to guide federal and state agencies in evaluating potential impacts
for management purposes
Solvency
PPIC. Her research interests include water and land use policy, infrastructure finance, and
climate change, September 23, 2010, Adaptation to Climate Change, Journal of the American
Planning Association, 76:4, 477-495)
Uncertainties about the extent and nature of some climate-related impacts pose a significant
barrier to deci- sions on appropriate adaptation measures. For example, scientific projections
of the pace of sea-level rise differ because of uncertainties in the role of melting ice sheets.8 The
fourth IPCC report estimated a sea-level rise of from 7 to 23 inches by 2100, depending on
future emissions and the sensitivity of the climate to them (IPCC, 2007a). Soon afterward, a
model taking into account recent ob- served trends projected a significantly higher range of
from 20 to 55 inches for the same time frame (Rahmstorf, 2007). Even using this latest
projection, it is unclear what portion of the range to plan for. Planning for the upper end is more
conservative, but also implies higher costs, either in foregone use of coastal property or higher
invest- ments in protective structures, which also have environ- mental costs. For instance,
Neumann and Hudgens (2006) find that the costs of shoreline protection would increase fivefold if sea-level rise were assumed to be 40 inches rather than 20 inches. A second example
concerns precipitation changes and adaptation in the water sector. While there is considerable
certainty that temperature increases will shift winter and spring runoff patterns by reducing
the share of total precipitation that falls as snow, climate models are in disagreement about
whether the future will be wetter or dryer in this region (Luers & Mastrandrea, 2008). The
value of one costly adaptation tool, building new surface reservoirs to replace the lost storage
in the snowpack, depends critically on the answer ; in a drier future, there will be few occasions
when this storage can be put to use (Tanaka et al., 2006). Some windows of planning
uncertainty can be re- duced through more focused analysis using currently available climate
models. For instance, more refined, local impact assessments can help translate global and
regional climate model results to scales better suited for local adaptation planning. Similarly,
additional air quality modeling and analysis can help ascertain whether new emission controls
would be appropriate to address the regional impacts of higher temperatures on air quality. But
in other cases, such as the effects of climate change on precipitation levels, better information
will only come with time, either as analytical tools improve or as the actual changes become
more apparent. Since one of the predicted outcomes of climate models is more variability, we
are unlikely to have a clear sense of the scale of some changes until we are in the midst of them.
supply; the health and distribution of plant and animal species; and land-use patterns for food,
fiber, and energy production. Unfortunately, we are not adequately monitoring trends in many
of these areas and therefore do not have the data necessary to identify emerging problems or
to evaluate our efforts to respond. As threats to human health, food production,
environmental quality, and ecological well-being emerge, the nations leaders will be
handicapped by major blind spots in their efforts to design effective policies. In a world in
which global environmental stressors are increasingly interactive and human actions are
having a more powerful effect, the need for detailed, reliable, and timely information is
essential. Yet environmental monitoring continues to be undervalued as an investment in
environmental protection. We tolerated inadequate data in the past, when problems were
relatively simple and geographically limited, such as air or water pollution from a single plant.
But it is unacceptable today, as we try to grapple with far more extensive changes caused by a
changing climate. The effects of climate change will be felt across the globe, and at the regional
level they are likely to present unique and hard-to-predict outcomes. For example, a small
change in temperature in the Pacific Northwest has allowed bark beetles to survive the winter,
breed prolifically, and devastate millions of acres of forest Although scientists are working to
improve forecasts of the future and anticipate such tipping points, observation of what is
actually happening remains the cornerstone of an adequate response. Society needs consistent
and reliable information to establish baselines, make projections and validate them against
observed changes, and identify potential surprises as early as possible.
Increasing monitoring capability is a top priority and first step to any other
action on acidification
Fabry, Oceanographer and professor of Biological Science, 2007
(Victoria J., professor of Biological Science at CSU San Marcos and visiting scientists at Scripps
Institution of Oceanography. Present and Future Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine
Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycles Report of the Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry
Centralization Key
The observation network of a national program would drastically improve
ocean acidification monitoring and research.
National Research Council 2010
(Committee on the Development of an Integrated Science Strategy for Ocean Acidification
Monitoring, Research, and Impacts Assessment; National Research Council, Ocean
Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean, National
Academy of Sciences. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12904)
CONCLUSION: given that ocean acidification is an emerging field of research, the committee
finds that the federal government has taken initial steps to respond to the nations long-term
needs and that the national ocean acidification program currently in development is a positive move toward coordinating these efforts. An ocean acidification program will require
coordination at the inter- national, national, regional, state, and local levels. Within the U.S.
federal government, it will involve many of the greater than 20 agencies that are engaged in
ocean science and resource management. To address the full scope of potential impacts, strong
interactions among scientists in mul- tiple fields and from various organizations will be required
and two-way communication with stakeholders will be necessary. Ultimately, a suc- cessful
program will have an approach that integrates basic science with decision support. The
growing concern over ocean acidification is demonstrated in the several workshops that have
been convened on the subject, as well as scientific reviews and community statements (e.g.,
Raven et al., 2005; Doney et al., 2009; Kleypas et al., 2006; Fabry et al., 2008a; Orr et al., 2009;
European Science Foundation, 2009). These reviews and reports present a community-based
statement on the science of ocean acidification as well as steps needed to better understand
and address it; they provide the groundwork for the committees analysis. CONCLUSION: The
development of a National Ocean Acidification Program will be a complex undertaking, but
legislation has laid the foundation, and a path forward has been articulated in numerous
reports that provide a strong basis for identifying future needs and priorities for
understanding and responding to ocean acidification. The committees recommendations,
presented below, include six key elements of a successful national ocean acidification program:
(1) a robust observing network, (2) research to fulfill critical information needs, (3) assessments
and support to provide relevant information to decision makers, (4) data management, (5)
facilities and training of ocean acidifica- tion researchers, and (6) effective program planning and
management. Many publications have noted the critical need for long-term moni- toring of
ocean and climate to document and quantify changes, including ocean acidification, and that
the current observation systems for monitor- ing these changes are insufficient. A global
network of robust and sus- tained chemical and biological observations will be necessary to
establish a baseline and to detect and predict changes attributable to acidification. The first step
in developing the observing network will be iden- tification of the appropriate chemical and
biological parameters to be measured by the network and ensuring data quality and consistency
across space and time. There is widespread agreement on the chemical parameters (and
methods and tools for measurement) for monitoring ocean acidification. Unlike the chemical
parameters, there are no agreed upon metrics for biological variables. In part, this is because
the field is young and in part because the biological effects of ocean acidification, from the
cellular to the ecosystem level, are very complex. To account for this complexity, the program
will need to monitor parameters that cover a range of organisms and ecosystems and support
both laboratory-based and field research. The development of new tools and techniques, including novel autonomous sensors, would greatly improve the ability to make relevant chemical and
biological measurements over space and time and will be necessary to identify and characterize
essential biological indica- tors concerning the ecosystem consequences of ocean acidification.
As critical biological indicators and metrics are identified, the Program will need to
incorporate those measurements into the research plan, and thus, adaptability in response to
developments in the field is a critical element of the monitoring program. The next step in
developing the observing network will be consider- ation of available resources. A number of
existing sites and surveys could serve as a backbone for an ocean acidification observational
network, but these existing sites were not designed to observe ocean acidification and thus do
not provide adequate coverage or measurements of key parameters. The current system of
observations would be improved by adding sites and measurements in ecosystems projected
to be vulnerable to ocean acidification (e.g., coral reefs and polar regions) and areas of high
variability (e.g., coastal regions). Two community based reports (Fabry et al., 2008a; Feely et al.,
2010) identify vulnerable ecosystems, measurement requirements, and other details for
developing an ocean acidification observational network. Another important consideration is
the sustainability of long term observations, which remains a perpetual challenge but is critical
given the gradual, cumulative, and longlasting pressure of ocean acidification. Integrating the
network of ocean acidification observations with other ocean observing systems will help to
ensure sustainability of the acidification specific observations. CONCLUSION: The chemical
parameters that should be measured as part of an ocean acidification observational network
and the methods to make those measurements are well established. RECOMMENDATION: The
National Program should support a chemical monitoring program that includes measurements
of temperature, salinity, oxygen, nutrients critical to primary production, and at least two of the
following four carbon parameters: dissolved inorganic carbon, pCO2, total alkalinity, and pH. To
account for variability in these values with depth, measurements should be made not just in the
surface layer, but with consideration for different depth zones of interest, such as the deep sea,
the oxygen minimum zone, or in coastal areas that experience periodic or seasonal hypoxia.
CONCLUSION: Standardized, appropriate parameters for monitoring the biological effects of
ocean acidification cannot be determined until more is known concerning the physiological
responses and population consequences of ocean acidification across a wide range of taxa.
RECOMMENDATION: To incorporate findings from future research, the National Program
should support an adaptive monitoring program to identify biological response variables
specific to ocean acidification. In the meantime, measurements of general indicators of
ecosystem change, such as primary productivity, should be supported as part of a program for
assessing the effects of acidification. These measurements will also have value in assessing the
effects of other long-term environmental stressors. RECOMMENDATION: To ensure long-term
continuity of data sets across investigators, locations, and time, the National Ocean Acidifica
tion Program should support inter-calibration, standards development, and efforts to make
methods of acquiring chemical and biological data clear and consistent. The Program should
support the development of satellite, ship-based, and autonomous sensors, as well as other
methods and technologies, as part of a network for observing ocean acidification and its
impacts. As the field advances and a consensus emerges, the Program should support the
identification and standardization of biological parameters for monitoring ocean acidification
and its effects. CONCLUSION: The existing observing networks are inadequate for the task of
monitoring ocean acidification and its effects. However, these networks can be used as the
backbone of a broader monitoring network.
The establishment of a National Ocean Acidification Program integrates datamanagement and is a prerequisite to international cooperation
Interagency Working Group on Ocean Acidification, 2014
(Strategic Plan for Federal Research and Monitoring of Ocean
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/iwgoa_strategic_plan_march_2014.pdf)
Acidification
Oceans provide vital resources and services for sustaining humankind including food, recreation,
transportation, energy, nutrient-cycling, and climate moderation, and they substantially
contribute to the economy. However, the chemistry of the oceans is changing in ways that will
have impacts on these services and resources. Several federal agencies are working towards
developing a collective approach to understand and address this rapidly emerging problem,
commonly referred to as ocean acidification. Recognizing the need for a comprehensive
interagency plan to address the increasing impacts of ocean acidification, Congress passed the
Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Act of 2009 (FOARAM Act), which defines
ocean acidification as the decrease in pH of the Earths oceans and changes in ocean chemistry
caused by chemical inputs from the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide. Coastal and
estuarine acidification, to the extent that the cause of the acidification can be traced back to
anthropogenic atmospheric inputs to the ocean, are assumed to be covered by this Strategic
Plan for Federal Research and Monitoring of Ocean Acidification (Strategic Plan) wherever ocean
acidification is referenced. To further clarify, anthropogenic effects on land-based runoff can
drive respiration-induced acidification that likely exacerbates chemical changes caused by
atmospheric CO2 loading. The FOARAM Act calls on the Subcommittee on Ocean Science and
Technology (SOST) to establish an Interagency Working Group on Ocean Acidification (IWG-OA).
The Act also explicitly calls for developing a strategic research plan to guide Federal research
and monitoring on ocean acidification that will provide for an assessment of the impacts of
ocean acidification on marine organisms and marine ecosystems and the development of
adaption and mitigation strategies to conserve marine organisms and marine ecosystems.
The IWG-OA was chartered in October 2009 and comprises representatives from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Science Foundation (NSF), Bureau of
Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), U.S. Department of State (DOS), U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS),
and the U.S. Navy. The IWG-OA is chaired by NOAA and co-vice chaired by NSF and NASA. The
IWG-OA is guided by the following vision: A nation, globally engaged and guided by science,
sustaining healthy marine and coastal ecosystems, communities, and economies through
informed responses to ocean acidification. This vision reflects the intention that U.S. oceanacidification efforts be societally relevant and to be based on the best available information
and science. In preparing this Strategic Plan, the IWG-OA focused on seven priority themes
identified in the FOARAM Act. The themes include the five Program Elements set forth as the
minimum requirements for the plan and two additional elements required for successful
implementation. Although activities are separated into themes, most of the work conducted will
bridge themes to create a unified whole. Throughout the Strategic Plan, cross-referencing of
themes clearly emphasizes these connections. The seven themes address: (1) monitoring; (2)
research; (3) modeling; (4) technology development; (5) socioeconomic impacts; (6) education,
outreach, and engagement strategies; and (7) data management and integration. These themes
lay out recommendations and short-term (3- to 5-year) and long-term (10-year) goals. Research
Goals Highlighted Improve existing observing systems and develop new technology and
systems that monitor chemical and biological impacts of ocean acidification worldwide,
document trends, and develop early warning systems. Undertake laboratory, mesocosm, and
in situ research to examine species-specific and multi-species physiological responses including
behavioral and evolutionary adaptive capacities. Also, examine interactions with other stressors,
effects on biogeochemical processes affecting the cycling of elements and chemical species,
impacts to marine food webs and ecosystems, the ability of ecological processes to reduce
ocean acidification or its negative effects, and mechanisms necessary to develop indices to track
marine-ecosystem responses. Develop comprehensive models to predict changes in the ocean
carbon cycle, oceanic carbonate-buffer systems, and impacts on marine ecosystems and
organisms. Ensure the ability to measure all required parameters with adequate data quality
through technology development and standardization of measurements. Undertake
investigations that translate and reconcile laboratory results with real-world situations.
Develop vulnerability assessments for various CO2 emissions scenarios. Foster a coordinated
Federal approach to technology development and standardization efforts. Assess the cultural,
subsistence, and economic impacts of ocean acidification. Identify and engage stakeholders
and local communities in developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for responsible
stewardship of marine and Great Lakes organisms and ecosystems. Design and coordinate
activities that foster ocean-acidification literacy through educational resources and public
outreach. Develop and implement domestic and international engagement strategies and
facilitating partnerships. Ensure that results and assessments of monitoring and research
efforts are accessible to and understandable by managers, policy makers, and the general
public. Ensure that ocean-acidification data are properly managed and integrated across
disciplinary, organizational, cultural, societal, and data-management technology boundaries.
As ocean-acidification monitoring, research, modeling, and outreach programs are developed,
priorities will likely need to be adjusted to ensure coverage of all present and future needs.
Allowing for the periodic evaluation and adjustment of the Strategic Plan is a vital part of the
planning effort. Areas that are of high interest with respect to ocean acidification in the nearterm include high-latitude open-oceans, coral reefs, and coastal and estuarine regions. These
regions, and the living marine resources they contain, will receive special emphasis and are
incorporated into the short-term and/or long-term goals of each theme. As ocean acidification
is a global phenomenon, international coordination and cooperation is essential. The
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) established the Ocean Acidification International
Coordination Centre to address the growing concern of ocean acidification. Operated by the
Agencys Monaco Environmental Laboratories, the International Coordination Centre will serve
the scientific community as well as policymakers, universities, media, and the general public by
facilitating, promoting, and communicating global actions on ocean acidification. The United
States will be represented on the Ocean Acidification Advisory Board. The establishment of a
National Ocean Acidification Program and an associated National Program Office is
recommended to serve the vital role of developing and executing an implementation plan
that aligns with the goals outlined in this Strategic Plan. The location and leadership model for
the National Ocean Acidification Program Office should be determined by the participating
agencies once the National Ocean Acidification Program is confirmed. The National Ocean
Acidification Program Office will report directly to the IWG-OA and will be tasked with
developing an ocean-acidification implementation plan, coordinating federal and federally
funded ocean-acidification research and monitoring, establishing an ocean-acidification
information exchange, and producing reports and documentation as required by the FOARAM
Act and other statutes and interagency mandates. Both the IWG-OA and National Ocean
Acidification Program must ensure that federal ocean acidification monitoring, research, funding
programs, and outreach efforts effectively address short- and long-term priorities while
remaining proactive and adaptive as ocean acidification impacts and effective mitigation
measures become better understood. Also, the National Ocean Acidification Program and
Program Office will facilitate U.S. representation on the International Coordination Centre of the
IAEA.
The plan resolves both lab-based and field research and a sustainable program
National Research Council, 2010
(National Research Council, Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of
a Changing Ocean (2010), Online: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12904)
OBSERVING NETWORK: Many publications have noted the critical need for long-term monitoring
of ocean and climate to document and quantify changes, including ocean acidification, and that
the current observation systems for monitoring these changes are insufficient. A global network
of robust and sustained chemical and biological observations will be necessary to establish a
baseline and to detect and predict changes attributable to acidification. The first step in
developing the observing network will be identification of the appropriate chemical and
biological parameters to be measured by the network and ensuring data quality and consistency
across space and time. There is widespread agreement on the chemical parameters (and
methods and tools for measurement) for monitoring ocean acidification. Unlike the chemical
parameters, there are no agreed upon metrics for biological variables. In part, this is because
the field is young and in part because the biological effects of ocean acidification, from the
cellular to the ecosystem level, are very complex. To account for this complexity, the program
will need to monitor parameters that cover a range of organisms and ecosystems and support
both laboratory-based and field research. The development of new tools and techniques,
including novel autonomous sensors, would greatly improve the ability to make relevant
chemical and biological measurements over space and time and will be necessary to identify and
characterize essential biological indicators concerning the ecosystem consequences of ocean
acidification. As critical biological indicators and metrics are identified, the Program will need
to incorporate those measurements into the research plan, and thus, adaptability in response
to developments in the field is a critical element of the monitoring program. The next step in
developing the observing network will be consideration of available resources. A number of
existing sites and surveys could serve as a backbone for an ocean acidification observational
network, but these existing sites were not designed to observe ocean acidification and thus do
not provide adequate coverage or measurements of key parameters. The current system of
observations would be improved by adding sites and measurements in ecosystems projected
to be vulnerable to ocean acidification (e.g.. coral reefs and polar regions) and areas of high
variability (e.g., coastal regions). Two community-based reports (Fabry et al.. 2008a; Feely et
al., 2010) identify vulnerable ecosystems, measurement requirements, and other details for
developing an ocean acidification observational network. Another important consideration is
the sustainability of long-term observations, which remains a perpetual challenge but is
critical given the gradual, cumulative, and long-lasting pressure of ocean acidification.
Integrating the network of ocean acidification observations with other ocean observing
systems will help to ensure sustainability of the acidification-specific observations.
CONCLUSION: The chemical parameters that should be measured as part of an ocean
acidification observational network and the methods to make those measurements are wellestablished. RECOMMENDATION: The National Program should support a chemical monitoring
program that includes measurements of temperature, salinity, oxygen, nutrients critical to
primary production, and at least two of the following four carbon parameters: dissolved
inorganic carbon, pCO2, total alkalinity, and pH. To account for variability in these values with
depth, measurements should he made not just in the surface layer, but with consideration for
different depth zones of interest, such as the deep sea, the oxygen minimum zone, or in
coastal areas that experience periodic or seasonal hypoxia. CONCLUSION: Standardized,
appropriate parameters for monitoring the biological effects of ocean acidification cannot be
determined until more is known concerning the physiological responses and population
consequences of ocean acidification across a wide range of taxa. RECOMMENDATION: To
incorporate findings front future research, the National Program should support an adaptive
monitoring program to identify biological response variables specific to ocean acidification. In
the meantime, measurements of general indicators of ecosystem change, such as primary
productivity, should be supported as part of a program for assessing the effects of acidification.
These measurements will also have value in assessing the effects of other long-term
environmental stressors.
Establishment of a US national program on ocean acidification is key coordinates federal agencies and is a prerequisite to international cooperation
Fabry, Oceanographer and professor of Biological Science, 2007
(Victoria J., professor of Biological Science at CSU San Marcos and visiting scientists at Scripps
Institution of Oceanography. Present and Future Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine
Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycles Report of the Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry
Scoping Workshop on Ocean Acidification Research Authors: V. J. Fabry, C. Langdon, W. M.
Balch, A. G. Dickson, R. A. Feely, B. Hales, D. A. Hutchins, J. A. Kleypas, and C. L. Sabine)
Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is altering the seawater chemistry of the worlds oceans
with consequences for marine biota, ecosystems, and biogeochemistry. Understanding these
impacts requires integrative approaches to understand the linkages among ecosystem
components and feedbacks to climate. The Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) program,
a scientific community-driven coordinating body that promotes U.S. research and
international cooperation to investigate the oceans role in the global Earth system, sponsored
a Scoping Workshop on Ocean Acidification Research. With support from the National Science
Foundation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, and U.S. Geological Survey, a multidisciplinary assemblage of 93 scientists
participated in the 3-day workshop, held at the UCSD Scripps Institution of Oceanography on 9
11 October 2007. The goals of this Scoping Workshop on Ocean Acidification Research were to:
1. Develop coordinated research implementation strategies to address present and future ocean
acidification impacts; and 2. Identify specific activities and timelines needed to advance research
priorities. Previous meetings and reports on the impacts of ocean acidification emphasized
substantial knowledge gaps at the ecosystem level. Therefore, this workshop focused on
developing comprehensive research strategies for four critical ecosystems: Warm-water coral
reefs; Coastal margins; Subtropical/tropical pelagic regions; and High latitude regions. Four
individual focus groups (one for each of these ecosystems) were asked to address each of the
two goals noted above. Plenary discussions identified common approaches as well as
ecosystem-specific differences. These discussions highlighted the need to integrate modeling
into the design, execution, and interpretation of manipulative experiments, as well as
recognizing the possibility for interactions between the effects of increasing p(CO2) and effects
due to climate-induced changes in variables such as temperature and nutrients. Participants
strongly endorsed the establishment of an interdisciplinary U.S. national program on ocean
acidification that would coordinate research activities among different U.S. Federal agencies .
They also stressed the need for continuing international cooperation to develop a coordinated,
global network of ocean observations and process studies that could leverage existing
infrastructure and programs as far as possible, while noting the need for additional sites for
monitoring and process studies aimed explicitly at ocean acidification. Key recommendations
include: Establish a national program on ocean acidification research; Develop new
instrumentation for the autonomous measurement of CO2 system parameters, particulate
inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and physiological stress markers;
translates into a 30 percent surge in acidity.Scientists predict that pH will go down another 0.14
to 0.35 units by the end of this century.Accompanying the lower pH are lower saturation points
of minerals such as calcium car- bonate,the primary skeletal material of marine organisms
that form the basis of ocean food webs,such as phytoplank- ton and coral reefs.As the ocean
be- comes more acidic,calcium carbonate begins to dissolve.The shift in ocean chemistry is so
profound that the shells will literally dissolve offthe backs of some organisms under the ocean
con- ditions predicted for 2100,according to experiments conducted by Victoria
Fabry,ofCalifornia State University in San Marcos. The rapid change in seawater acidity is almost
unprecedented.At a Senate Oceans,Atmosphere,Fisheries,and Coast Guard Subcommittee
hearing on ocean acidification,Scott Doney,of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute,
testified,Marine life has survived large climate and acidification variations in the past, but the
projected rates ofcli- mate change and ocean acidification over the next century are much faster
than experienced by the planet in the past, except for rare,catastrophic events in the geological
record.Thomas Love- joy,president ofthe Heinz Center for Science,Economics and the Environment, shares Doneys concern.Lovejoy has described ocean acidification as the most profound
environmental change I have observed in my entire professional career. Unlike the situation
with other as- pects of climate change,there is no con- troversy over ocean acidification.At the
Senate hearing on ocean acidification, the panelists universally painted a grim picture.Not only
will species have to adapt to a changing thermal environ- ment, but they will also have to cope
with increased acidity ofseawater. David Conover,dean and director of the Marine Science
Research Center at Stony Brook University,warned the subcommittee that the combination of
stresses will make commercial species less resilient to harvesting:We may need to reduce *the+
harvest [of] some species in certain areas to enable them to withstand the additional stress.
Further complicating matters are potential shifts in marine community structure.David
Hutchins,a professor at the University ofSouthern Califor- nia, has conducted experiments in
open ocean areas to determine how plankton communities will react to the higher temperature
and greater acidity of oceans ofthe future.His teams results suggest a shift in marine food webs
that will make the ocean much less productive ofresources like fish that a hungry human
population depends on. Scientists concede there are many unknowns regarding ocean
acidifica- tion. As with other aspects ofclimate change,scientists need to refine models of the
physical environment. But even with improved physical models,Doney says,significant
knowledge gaps in ocean biology will hinder the creation of the skillful forecasts needed to
guide ocean management decisions. Despite the knowledge gaps, there is no dedicated
federal funding for ocean acidification research. Some members of Congress want to change
that. Sena- tors Frank Lautenberg (DNJ) and Maria Cantwell (DWA) have intro- duced
S.1581,the Federal Ocean Acidi- fication Research and Monitoring Act of 2007,to create an
interagency task force for ocean acidification,as well as a research program to be housed at
NOAA.Lautenberg says the bills time has come:Congress has been hearing from our Nation*s+
experts on ocean acidification since 2004.Now is the time for national investment in a coordinated program of research and monitoring. Although ocean acidification is rela- tively new
on the policy radar screen, do not be surprised to see it jump the queue to the top ofmarine
conserva- tion issues. Cantwell,who chairs the Senate subcommittee with jurisdiction over
ocean issues,sees acidification as a must addressissue:Ifwe fail to ad- dress the potential
impact ofglobal cli- mate change and ocean acidification, we may be jeopardizing all ofour hardfought ocean conservation gains.
critical to better coordinating and avoiding duplication between the various agencies (see
previous bullet). Second, such an office would serve an additional important function by
facilitating direct, constructive dialog between the US academic OA community and funding
agency representatives, since academic scientists and presumably colleagues from foundations,
NGOs and industry would be members of the OA program Scientific Steering Committee.
Finally, a national OA program office would fill a major gap by providing a badly needed
united forum to represent US OA researchers in communications with the international ocean
science community, with any participating foundations (see Section 3), and with related marine
industries (see Section 3). OA research in the United States has historically lagged behind the
more organized and coordinated efforts developed through organized programs, such as those
from the European Union. A formal US OA program office would provide us with a stronger,
more united voice in international OA issues instead of the many small voices which are all
we now have as individual OA researchers.
the public at large is a challenge confronting our society. Indeed, there is growing evidence that
the interest in, and appreciation for, science in the United States is extremely low. If we expect
our federal legislators to provide substantive long-term support, the IWGOA will need to
consider how they can effectively improve communication about Ocean Acidification research
and its relevance to society. 6. Science Needs: For many decades ocean science has been
impeded by the lack of dependable in situ sensing systems. Sensor development has been
perennially underfunded and substantial investments on the order of tens of millions a year are
needed to develop and then sustainably deploy dependable new sensing systems for physical,
chemical and biological variables and this should be integral to the decade-long effort the
IWGOA is developing. In addition to National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP)
funding, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and Homeland Security
Advanced Research Projects Agency (HSARPA) should be approached to partner in the sensor
development effort. An important goal of the observational, experimental and modeling studies
being formulated by the IWGOA should include entire food webs and the biogeochemical cycles
that support them. 7. Management Actions and Multiple Stressors: A host of important
management decisions will be made in response to the scientific insights developed during the
decade-long investigations involving Ocean Acidification. The Task Force recognizes the
particular challenges presented by the action of multiple stressors in the marine environment
but contends they should be made an integral part of management strategies. 8. Socioeconomic
Recommendations: Social sciences need to be incorporated into the assessment of the impacts
of ocean acidification on lives and livelihoods. This could build on existing models NOAA
Climate and Societal Interactions program (CSI) and The US Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) and should include econometric approaches. Risk assessments of ocean acidification,
that incorporate low-probability, high-impact events as well as high-probability, low-to-mid
impacts need to be considered. Given the global nature of OA, socio-economic impacts must
be considered with regard to global security. 9. National Ocean Acidification Data Management
Plan: There needs to be effective interagency coordination and data sharing. Information
about OA and relevant data are scattered; there needs to be a permanent, national,
interagency cyberinfrastructure system that ties together or stores in a few places all relevant
data archives relevant to ocean acidification. The IWGOA should also identify opportunities to
integrate OA data into the eventual IOOS (Integrated Ocean Observing System) data
management scheme. 10. Federal, Regional, State and Local Interactions: Local, regional, and
state governments can combat the causes of acidification in parallel with the federal
government. Environmental laws currently in effect provide a network of pathways for
intergovernmental cooperation and coordination. Below we list some of the environmental laws
relevant for mitigating ocean acidification, and the governmental interactions that these laws
trigger.
c.)ocean Acidification Monitoring, Research, and impacts Assessment was assembled by the NRC
to provide recommendations to the federal agencies on an interagency strategic plan for ocean
acidification. The committee is charged with reviewing the current state of knowledge and
identifying key gaps in information to ultimately help guide federal agencies with efforts to
better understand and address the consequences of ocean acidification (see Box S.l for full
statement of task). The committee recognizes that many thorough scientific reviews have
already been published on the topic of ocean acidification (e.g., Raven et al., 2005; Fabry et al.,
2008b; Doney et al., 2009). Rather than duplicate the previous work, the committee chose to
focus on the issues most relevant to the interagency working group: the high priority
information needs of decision makers and the key elements of an effective interagency
program . The committee relied heavily on peer-reviewed literature, but also considered
workshop reports, presentations at scientific meetings, and other community statements
(e.g., Kleypas et al., 2006; Fabry et al., 2008a; Orr et al., 2009), as well as presentations at
committee meetings and their own expert judgment as key inputs for establishing the
community consensus on the current state of the science, research and monitoring priorities,
and elements of an effective national program. 1.4
Federal government key current agencies fail to adequately collect data but
are a necessary backbone for a national ocean acidification office that can
collect data with standardized data and facilitate communication between
scientists, government agencies, and the public
Morel et al, Committee on the development of an integrated science strategy
for ocean acidification monitoring, research, and impact assessment 2010
(Francois M.M. Morel, Chair, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey David Archer,
University of Chicago, Illinois James P. Barry, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute,
California Garry D. Brewer, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut Jorge E. CORREDOR,
University of Puerto Rico, Mayagez SCOTT C. Doney, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
Massachusetts Victoria J. Fabby, California State University, San Marcos Gretchen E. Hofman,
University of California, Santa Barbara Daniel S. Holland, Gulf of Maine Research Institute,
Portland Joan A. Kelypas, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Frank J.
Millero, University of Miami, Florida Ulf Riebesell, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel,
Germany, Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing
Ocean)
An ocean acidification program will be a complex undertaking for the nation. Like climate change, ocean
acidification is being driven by the integrated global behavior of humans and is occurring at a global scale, but its impacts are likely to be felt at the
regional and local level. It is a problem that cuts across disciplines and affects a diverse group of stake- holders .
Assessment, research,
and development of potential adaptation measures will require coordination at the
international, national, regional, state, and local levels. It will involve many of the greater
than 20 federal agencies that are engaged in ocean science and resource management. Investigating
and understanding the problem will necessitate the close collaboration of ocean chemists, biologists,
modelers, engineers, economists, social scientists, resource managers, and others from
academic institutions, government labs and agencies, and non-governmental organizations. It
will also involve two-way communicationboth outreach to and input fromstakeholders interested in
network need not be entirely built from scratch, and the program should
leverage existing and developing observing systems. Even if anthropogenic CO2 emissions remained constant at todays
levels, the average pH of the ocean would continue to decrease for some period of time, and research in the area would benefit from continuous
time-series data. Thus the program should consider mechanisms to sustain the long- term continuity of the observational network.
inconsistent with the paradigm of new governance. 339 But we cannot know if
experimentation and adaptation are successful if we cannot monitor whether management
choices have improved outcomes or not. The new governance literature has argued that
whatever we may lose in terms of accountability with more flexible legal standards, we can gain
back with greater monitoring that can provide a foundation by which we can judge whether
regulatory and management programs are succeeding.340 Yet that literature has paid little
attention to how this monitoring will occur, whether it will be successful, and whether it can fill
the accountability gap that would otherwise be created by the legal flexibility that the new,
dynamic, experimentalist forms of governance demand.341 The analysis in this Article makes
clear that the answers to these questions are not given, that monitoring may well not fill the
breach caused by the retreat of law in new governance systems. Every substantive regulatory
area will have its own unique features that will make solving the problem of environmental
monitoring different. But all have this in common: Addressing monitoring is a necessary feature
of successful governance, whether of the old or new variety, and policymakers will need to
thoughtfully consider how to answer what is an essentially political question as they make
important legal and institutional design choices. To do otherwise is to court failure.
speculations in the literature (Wayman 2008; Freestone and Rayfuse 2008) that ocean iron
fertilization could help to mitigate anthropogenic ocean acidification, a process referring to
the increase in ocean acidity as a result of the oceans absorption of anthropogenic CO2
(Caldeira and Wickett 2003). Ocean acidification would affect marine organisms and ecosystems
in a variety of ways (Raven et al. 2005). For example, a decrease in the saturation state of
seawater with respect to carbonate minerals (including both calcite and aragonite) would
weaken the ability of corals and some other calcifying organisms to build their skeletons and
reefs, posing a risk to their ecological sustainability. A decrease in ocean pH would also impact
the growth, respiration, and reproduction of some marine organisms, altering the biodiversity of
marine ecosystems. In this study we investigate the effect of large-scale ocean iron fertilization
on ocean acidification. To our knowledge, except for a few speculations (Wayman 2008;
Freestone and Rayfuse 2008) no scientific study has addressed this issue. In a recently released
report on ocean acidification, Monaco Declaration (Monaco Declaration 2009), it states that
Mitigation strategies that aim to transfer CO2 to the ocean, for example by direct deep-sea
disposal of CO2 or by fertilising the ocean to stimulate biological productivity, would enhance
ocean acidification in some areas while reducing it in others. But no quantitative estimates of
this issue have appeared in the peer-reviewed literature. Here, from simulations by a global
ocean carbon cycle model, we provide the first quantitative results that bound the effect of iron
fertilization on ocean acidification.
Iron fertilization successfully sequesters carbon and increases marine life experiments prove
Waller, professor of Marine Sciences at Darling Marine Center, 2012
(Rhian, professor of Marine Sciences at the Darling Marine Center (University of Maine, USA)
and specializes in the ecology of deep-sea and cold-water organisms, particularly corals. Iron
Fertilization: Savior to Climate Change or Ocean Dumping? October 18, 2012 National
Geographic. http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/10/18/iron-fertilization-savior-toclimate-change-or-ocean-dumping/)
Unbeknownst to most scientists until a few days ago, two hundred thousand pounds of iron
sulphate were dumped into North Pacific Ocean in July, with the aim to trigger a large
plankton bloom. This experiment was conducted by the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation,
under the direction of businessman Russ George. Why dump this dirty brown powder into the
ocean and why to trigger a plankton bloom? All in the name of reversing man-made climate
change. Phytoplankton is photosynthetic, needing sunlight and nutrients to grow, taking up
carbon dioxide in the process and producing oxygen as a by-product. This phytoplankton then
dies, falling to the bottom of the ocean, and taking that sequestered carbon dioxide with it,
trapping it at the bottom of the ocean. One of the major nutrients phytoplankton needs to
grow is iron, an insoluble nutrient and often found in limited quantities, inhibiting large
plankton blooms from occurring. So by adding iron to the ocean, we can increase the numbers
of phytoplankton photosynthesizing, using up more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and
locking it up, deep in our oceans. Or at least thats the theory. Geoengineering is the term
coined for deliberately modifying our environment to tackle man-made climatic changes on a
global scale. It all sounds so simple an easy route to solving our carbon emission crisis. The
controversy comes that we dont fully understand the consequences of manipulating our
environment on a global scale, and we have to weigh up whether those consequences are
better, or worse, than the problem we are trying to fix. Weve seen whats happened time after
time when weve modified the food chain fisheries collapses, extinction of species we know
well that connections that seem small can have drastic consequences we didnt even consider.
In addition, as that large bloom dies, decay will use up oxygen, potentially creating large anoxic
zones, smothering important bottom habitats in the deep ocean.
Warming
species. In this context it is important to note that organisms forming CaCO3 plates, such as
the coccolithophores, are major producers of DMS
OA Causes Coccolithophores
Ocean Acidification kills Coccolithophores
NIPCC 2013 (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Effects of Ocean
Acidification on Marine Coccolithophores, January 1 2013,
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2013/jan/1jan2013a4.html, Accessed 7/22/14)
About one-third of the carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere as a result of human
activity has been absorbed by the oceans1, where it partitions into the constituent ions of
carbonic acid. This leads to ocean acidification, one of the major threats to marine
ecosystems2 and particularly to calcifying organisms such as corals3, 4, foraminifera5, 6, 7 and
coccolithophores8. Coccolithophores are abundant phytoplankton that are responsible for a
large part of modern oceanic carbonate production. Culture experiments investigating the
physiological response of coccolithophore calcification to increased CO2 have yielded
contradictory results between and even within species8, 9, 10, 11. Here we quantified the
calcite mass of dominant coccolithophores in the present ocean and over the past forty
thousand years, and found a marked pattern of decreasing calcification with increasing partial
pressure of CO2 and concomitant decreasing concentrations of CO32. Our analyses revealed
that differentially calcified species and morphotypes are distributed in the ocean according to
carbonate chemistry. A substantial impact on the marine carbon cycle might be expected upon
extrapolation of this correlation to predicted ocean acidification in the future. However, our
discovery of a heavily calcified Emiliania huxleyi morphotype in modern waters with low pH
highlights the complexity of assemblage-level responses to environmental forcing factors.
been possible to analyse a large number of plankton and sediment samples that document the
changes in the calcification of coccolithophores in the present-day ocean as well as over the past
40,000 years. The results show that coccolithophores form less lime when the water contains
less carbonate ions, i.e. when it has a lower pH value (is "acidic"). " The reactions in the
natural system are much more pronounced than assumed up to now ," reports Dr. Bjrn Rost
from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz
Association, who is involved in the study. Laboratory experiments have already shown that the
degree of calcification decreases, as water gets more acidic, i.e. the algae form a thinner
skeleton. In the marine ecosystem, however, there is a shift in species composition from
strongly to weakly calcified species and strains. "Even small physiological differences in their
reactions to environmental changes may have great ecological consequences if this influences
their competitiveness," explains Rost. As ocean acidification increases, species that have to
invest more energy to form their calcite skeleton may be displaced. Consequently the group of
coccolithophores might take up less carbon in future -- with uncertain consequences for the
global carbon cycle.
However, the study also shows that there may be exceptions to this general trend. In the
coastal zone of Chile, where the "most acidic" conditions in the present-day oceans prevail
(pH values of 7.6 to 7.9 instead of 8.1 on average), scientists found extremely calcified
coccolithophores. Genetic analysis showed that a distinct strain of the coccolithophore species
Emiliania huxleyi has evolved here. This strain has evidently succeeded in adapting to
environmental conditions that are unfavourable for calcification. In view of the currently rapid
pace of climate change, however, it is extremely questionable whether other representatives
of the coccolithophores are able to adjust to this pace.
Coccolithophore blooms reflect sunlight back out into space they are a key
planetary insulator from further warming
Barnard, Senior Programme Officer at UNEP-WCMC, and Hain, Head of the
UNEP Coral Reef Unit, 2008 (Nicola, The United Nations Environment Programme's World
Conservation Monitoring Centre, Stefan, The United Nations Environment Programme,
SCIENTIFIC SYNTHESIS OF THE IMPACTS OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION ON MARINE BIODIVERSITY,
November 28 2008,
http://coralreef.noaa.gov/education/oa/resources/cbd_ts46_oceanacidification-web.pdf,
Accessed 7/21/14)
Significant feedback systems also stand to be influenced. Coccolithophore blooms have an
albedo effect, reflecting significant amounts of sunlight back into space, which cannot then
contribute to global warming. The loss of blooms could reduce the global albedo effect by up
to 0.13%. Additionally, coccolithophores are major producers of Dimethylsulphide (DMS),
which, on release to the atmosphere, is oxidized to SO4, an important component of aerosols,
thought to influence the lifetimes and optical properties of clouds. DMS is supersaturated in
surface waters, and emissions to the atmosphere by marine phytoplankton have been
proposed to reduce the radiative flux to the Earths surface. The complex logistics of monitoring DMS cycling
have prevented its effective characterization335, however, it is clear that changes in the composition of the phytoplankton
community would affect the size of this feedback to the global climate336. A shipboard incubation experiment was conducted to
investigate the effects of increased temperature and pCO2 on the algal community structure of the North Atlantic spring bloom, one
of the largest annually occurring phytoplankton blooms in the world ocean, and their subsequent impact on particulate (DMSPp) and
dissolved (DMSPd) DMSP concentrations. Under elevated pCO2 (690 ppm) and elevated temperature (ambient + 4C),
coccolithophorid and pelagophyte abundances were significantly higher than under control conditions (390 ppm CO2 and ambient
temperature). This shift in phytoplankton community structure also resulted in an increase in DMSPp concentrations337.
guess which estimate came closest to the truth, the researchers ran their simulations with high,
medium, and low estimates.
One simulation left the link between acidification and sulfur out completely, providing a
baseline for a comparison of warming by the end of the century with a middle-of-the-road
emissions scenario. Then the model was run with the three estimates of acidifications effect on
sulfur.
In the baseline model, the flow of biologically created sulfur from the ocean to the atmosphere
still decreased by seven percent because of climate change. Warming the surface ocean cuts
down on mixing with deeper, nutrient-rich water, so phytoplankton productivity drops.
But in the simulations that included the impact of acidification, that sulfur contribution to the
atmosphere decreased by 12 to 24 percent. The effect this has on cloud formation in the
model is measured in terms of the additional energy from the Sun reaching the Earths
surface0.08 Watts per square meter due to warming the waters the phytoplankton live in and
0.18 to 0.64 Watts per square meter due to acidification. Allowing for uncertainty in exactly
how sensitive the climate is to change, that equates to 0.1 to 0.76 C of additional warming
caused by ocean acidification at the end of the century. Keeping in mind that this
emissions scenario projects around 2.8 C of warming by 2100, that could potentially be a
significant addition.
While climate change and ocean acidification are parallel phenomena, there are also some
cross-links enabling the twins to interact. Rising temperatures and changing seawater chemistry
will have impacts on marine life, and some of those impacts could, in turn, affect rising
temperatures. Thats why its called the climate systemwhen you tug on one thing, many
things move.
been suggested that CaCO3 acts as a mineral ballast for the export of organic carbon, such as
plankton cells and other particulate matter, in the biological pump (Section 3.2.1) (Klaas &
Archer 2002). Any reduction in CaCO3 production will reduce the amount of ballast available
to the biological pump and may therefore diminish the flow of carbon to the deep oceans.
However, because any link between the flow of this mineral ballast and the flow of organic
matter is unknown, the significance of this effect remains uncertain (Passow 2004).
increases at the end of this century based on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios due to
anthropogenic activities. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, for example, has already climbed
from a pre-industrial 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm today, causing a rise in global
temperature of 0.6 degrees Celsius. The expectations are for atmospheric carbon dioxide to
soar beyond 550 ppm by 2100 unless major changes in energy supply and demand are
implemented. Concerning as these projection are, they do not take into account additional
amounts of carbon dioxide and methane released when rising temperatures trigger ecological
and chemical responses, such as warmer oceans giving off more carbon dioxide, or warmer
soils decomposing faster, liberating ever increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and methane.
The problem has been an inability to quantify the impact of Natures responses in the face of
overwhelming anthropogenic input. Torn and Harte were able to provide this critical
information by examining the paleo data stored in ancient ice cores. Paleo data can provide us
with an estimate of the greenhouse gas increases that are a natural consequence of global
warming, said Torn. In the absence of human activity, these greenhouse gas increases are
the dominant feedback mechanism. In examining data recorded in the Vostok ice core,
scientists have known that cyclic variations in the amount of sunlight reaching the earth trigger
glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the magnitude of warming and cooling temperatures cannot
be explained by variations in sunlight alone. Instead, large rises in temperatures are more the
result of strong upsurges in atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations set-off by
the initial warming.
Biodiversity
Impact Calc
Outweighs the any disad
Richard Tobin, 1990 (President and Chief Executive Officer of CNH, The Expendable Future,
1990, p. 22)
Norman Meyers observes, no other form of environmental degradation is anywhere so
significant as the fallout of species. Harvard biologist Edward O. Wilson is less modest in
assessing the relative consequences of human-caused extinctions. To Wilson, the worst thing
that will happen to earth is not economic collapse, the depletion of energy supplies, or even
nuclear war. As frightful as these events might be, Wilson reasons that they can be repaired
within a few generations. The one process ongoingthat will take millions of years to correct
is the loss of genetic and species diversity by destruction of natural habitats.
latitudes as temperatures rise due to climate change [39]. Indirect impacts of climate change
may also cause incidents of ciguatera fish poisoning to become more frequent and more
geographically widespread. For example, perturbations to coral reefs, such as hurricanes or
bleaching events caused by increased water temperatures, free up space for macroalgae to
colonize. Climate change impacts are predicted to increase the intensity of hurricanes and water
temperatures [40], and may therefore increase habitat for G. toxicus. The period of time that
HABs occur annually may also expand as a result of climate change. For example, the planktonic
dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella is associated with paralytic shellfish poisoning [41]. Water
temperatures greater than 13C have been found to promote A. catenella blooms [42], and in
Puget Sound (Washington State), shellfish toxicity from this species occurs primarily in the late
summer and early fall when the water temperatures reach their seasonal maxima [43]. By the
year 2100, surface air temperatures in the Puget Sound region are predicted to increase by up
to 6C [44]. Given the close correspondence between Puget Sound air and water temperatures
[45], the annual window of warm water temperatures exceeding 13C will expand greatly
(Figure (Figure1).1). Optimal growth periods for freshwater HA may also expand as a result of
warmer temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios, potentially favoring the growth
of harmful cyanobacteria over other phytoplankton species [46]. Predicted rising water
temperature may therefore promote earlier and longer lasting HABs [43]; however, it is
important to acknowledge that interactions with other physical and biological aspects of the
marine ecosystem will also influence the ultimate growth responses of HA species. Changes in
seawater CO2 concentrations and ocean acidity are also likely to influence phytoplankton
species assemblages . The accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic
activities has increased concentrations of seawater CO2 and bicarbonate (HCO3-); both of
which are inorganic carbon sources that can be utilized by phytoplankton for photosynthesis
and growth. However, intrinsically linked with this change in seawater carbon chemistry is a
decrease in ocean pH; a drop of roughly 0.1 units from pre-industrial levels has already been
observed [2,47-49]. If anthropogenic CO2 emissions continue unabated, ocean pH could drop
by an additional 0.6 units to a level lower than has occurred in the past 300 million years
[40,49], with tropical regions and the Northern and Southern Oceans predicted to be impacted
most severely [47,50]. Changes in phytoplankton species assemblages in response to
increased dissolved CO2 and HCO3- concentrations may result from enhanced growth of
certain species [51], and/or from the inhibited growth of calcifying phytoplankton due to the
dissolution of their biogenic calcium carbonate (CaCO3) shells [52], among other contributing
factors [e.g., [48]]. How these changes will interact with other effects of climate change (such as
warmer temperatures) to influence phytoplankton growth and species assemblages, including
the growth and relative abundances of HA species, remains unknown [48,53]. Furthermore,
experimental studies of HA species have largely focused on the effects of elevated pH levels.
These studies, which include laboratory, field, and marine enclosure experiments, generally find
positive relationships between pH and growth or toxin production of these species [54-56].
However, it is uncertain if these relationships will hold at the lower end of the pH scale in a
more acidic ocean. Looking ahead several hundreds of years is obviously speculative, but there
is general agreement that a warmer Earth will be associated with climatic conditions similar to
those characterized by the Mesozoic era [57], when the geological record indicates that
dinoflagellates and coccolithophorids were favored among the eukaryotic phytoplankton [36].
Coccolithophorids are not a harmful algal species. However, the fact that they secrete calcium
carbonate tests will make their survival problematic if the pH of aquatic systems drops by 0.7
units or more [3]. By making the environment more challenging for coccolithophorid survival,
Acidification destroys coral reefs - those are the biggest internal link to
biodiversity
Fabry, Oceanographer and professor of Biological Science, 2007
(Victoria J., professor of Biological Science at CSU San Marcos and visiting scientists at Scripps
(Cheryl A. Logan is an assistant professor in the Division of Science and Environmental Policy
(SEP) at Cal State Monterey Bay, A Review of Ocean Acidification and Americas response,
November 2010)
Community assemblages are expected to change in response to ocean acidification because of
relative shifts in abundance between ecological winners and losers (Fabry et al. 2008). For
example, a recent study in the eastern Pacific found a correlation between an eight- year
decrease in pH in a rocky reef community and an increase in the abundance of noncalcifying
invertebrates and algae, along with a decrease in the abundance of calcifying species (Wootton
et al. 2008). Naturally low-pH environments have provided some understanding of how
ecosystems might change with increased acidity. Near shallow seafloor CO2 vents off the coast
of Italy, where mean pH values range from those predicted for the end of this century to more
extreme levels, the ecosystem experiences greatly reduced species richness and lacks
calcifying organisms (Hall-Spencer et al. 2008). In another case study, an eastern tropical Pacific
coral reef in naturally low-pH waters hosts reef structures that are less cemented and more
prone to bioerosion (Manzello et al. 2008). Additional ecosystem-level effects could ensue if
habitat- forming animals, such as corals, were no longer able to form and cement calcium
carbonate structures that serve as habitat for a variety of invertebrates and fish (Kleypas et al.
2005). Theoretical concerns and preliminary research have identified coastal margins, deep-sea
ecosystems, high-latitude regions (Kleypas et al. 2005, Raven et al. 2005, Fabry et al. 2008,
Guinotte and Fabry 2008), and especially tropical coral reefs ecosystems (Kleypas et al. 2005,
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007) as areas of particular concern. Although coral reefs cover less than
1% of the ocean floor, they may support up to 25% of marine biodiversity. They also provide
sources of income, food, and coastal protection for more than 100 countries around the world
(UNEP-WCMC 2006). Rising temperatures over the past 50 years already challenge the thermal
limits of reef-building corals (Hoegh-Guldberg 2007). In addition, evidence shows that for some
species of corals and crustose coralline algae, higher water tem- peratures in concert with ocean
acidification could have interactive negative effects on calcification rates (Reynaud et al. 2003,
Anthony et al. 2008, Cooper et al. 2008, Doney et al. 2009). Under the IPCCs BAU scenario,
tropical coral reefs could rapidly contract and experience an increase in the frequency and
severity of bleaching, disease, and mor- tality by 2050 as a result of the combined effects of
rising temperature and carbonate saturation levels too low to maintain reef growth (HoeghGuldberg et al. 2007).
and Hawaii."We all understand that acidification is changing ocean conditions. Learning how to
deal with it will be a steep learning curve. Things are changing faster than we thought they
would." So far, the Hog Island Oyster Farm has not had to wrangle with the problems
experienced by farms and hatcheries in the Northwest. "Though it's hard to admit, at this point
we can't do anything to protect an entire estuary or bay. But maybe we can do something on
the hatchery level, like control the water being pumped in," said Finger. "Because ocean pH can
be different at different times of the day, maybe we can regulate intake to avoid periods of
more acidic water. The more we know about what's going on, the more easily we can adapt to
itwhich is one reason we participate in C-CAN," he said.
Their evidence is empirically false: millions of shellfish are dying in the Pacific
Northwest
Kroh, 14 (Kiley Kroh [Kiley Kroh is Co-Editor of Climate Progress. Prior to joining Think
Progress, she worked on the Energy policy team at the Center for American Progress as the
Associate Director for Ocean Communications+, Acidic Waters Kill 10 Million Scallops Off
Vancouver, Online: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/26/3332141/ocean-acidificationkills-scallops/)
A mass die-off of scallops near Qualicum Beach on Vancouver Island is being linked to the
increasingly acidic waters that are threatening marine life and aquatic industries along the West
Coast. Rob Saunders, CEO of Island Scallops, estimates his company has lost three years worth
of scallops and $10 million dollars forcing him to lay off approximately one-third of his staff.
Im not sure we are going to stay alive and Im not sure the oyster industry is going to stay
alive, Saunders told The Parksville Qualicum Beach NEWS. Its that dramatic. Ocean
acidification, often referred to as global warmings evil twin, threatens to upend the
delicate balance of marine life across the globe. As we pump increasing amounts of carbon
pollution into the atmosphere, its not just wreaking havoc on air quality. The oceans are the
worlds largest carbon sinks, absorbing one-quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted every year.
The more carbon dioxide absorbed, the more acidic the water becomes and as a result,
organisms like shellfish no longer have the calcium carbonate they need to build their shells.
The Pacific Northwest is a hot spot for ocean acidification and the declining levels of pH hits
baby scallops particularly hard as they struggle to build a protective shell, theyre forced to
expend more energy and are vulnerable to predators and infection. The rising rate of carbon
dioxide emissions may have pushed local waters through a tipping point of acidity beyond
which shellfish cannot survive, Chris Harley, marine ecologist at the University of B.C, told
the Vancouver Sun. Saunders guesses that he lost 95 percent of his scallop crop as of July. And
Island Scallops isnt alone. Cape Mudge lost 2.5 million animals and some other small growers
lost 300,000, Saunders said. And the oceans arent just taking in carbon dioxide. The ocean
absorbs more than 90 percent of global warming the energy equivalent of about 12
Hiroshima bombs per second in 2013 alone. As climate change steadily drives up both the
temperature and acidity of the oceans, shellfish wont be the only victims. Researchers believe
coral reefs are being driven to the brink of extinction and several species of fish are already
disappearing at an alarming rate. Its a phenomena thats happening worldwide, Island
Scallops Rob Saunders told the NEWS. Theres very little hope for us.
Studies show some fisheries are improving and threats are overblown
Barringer, New York Times, 2011
(Felicity, One Fish, Two Fish, Flase-ish, True-ish, online:
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/01/one-fish-two-fish-false-ish-trueish/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0)
Two University of Washington scientists have just published a study in the journal
Conservation Biology in collaboration with colleagues from Rutgers University and Dalhousie
University arguing that the gloomiest predictions about the worlds fisheries are significantly
exaggerated.
The new study takes issue with a recent estimate that 70 percent of all stocks have been
harvested to the point where their numbers have peaked and are now declining, and that 30
percent of all stocks have collapsed to less than one-tenth of their former numbers. Instead, it
finds that at most 33 percent of all stocks are over-exploited and up to 13 percent of all stocks
have collapsed.
Its not that fisheries are in great shape, said Trevor Branch, the lead author of the new study;
its just that they are not as badly off as has been widely believed. In 2006, a study in the
journal Science predicted a general collapse in global fisheries by 2048 if nothing were done to
stem the decline.
The work led by Dr. Branch is another salvo in a scientific dispute feud might be a better word
that pits Dr. Branch and his co-author Ray Hilborn at the University of Washingtons School of
Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences and their allies against scientists at the University of British
Columbia and their partisans.
The latest paper argues that the methodology resulting in the most dire estimates, derived
from records of the amount of fish caught, is not as accurate as data from the more broadly
based United Nations assessment, based on the estimated biomass of available stocks of
individual species.
When the catch-based approach was applied to data on 234 global fish stocks from 1950 to
2006, it showed that 68 percent of all fisheries were either over-exploited (46 percent) or
collapsed (22 percent) by the end of that period, while none were increasing.
By contrast, when an assessment is based on an estimate of biomass, it showed that 28 percent
of fisheries were either over-exploited (15 percent) or collapsed (13 percent). The second
method also indicated 24 percent of the stocks were increasing .
No War
However, one need not be convinced about the potential for ideas to transform international politics to believe that major
war
is extremely unlikely to recur. Mueller, Mandelbaum, Ray, and others may give primary credit for the end of major war
to ideational evolution akin to that which made slavery and dueling obsolete, but others have interpreted the causal chain quite
differently. Neoliberal institutionalists have long argued that complex economic interdependence
can have a
pacifying effect upon state behavior (Keohane and Nye 1977, 1987). Richard Rosecrance (1986, 1999) has contended
that evolution in socio-economic organization has altered the shortest, most rational route to state
prosperity in ways that make war unlikely. Finally, many others have argued that credit for great power peace can
be given to the existence of nuclear weapons, which make aggression irrational ( Jervis 1989; Kagan et al. 1999).
With so many overlapping and mutually reinforcing explanations, at times the end of major war may seem to be overdetermined (
Jervis 2002:89). For purposes of the present discussion, successful identication of the exact cause of this fundamental change in
state behavior is probably not as important as belief in its existence. In other words, the outcome is far more important than the
mechanism. The importance of Muellers argument for the eld of IR is ultimately not dependent upon why major war has become
obsolete, only that it has. Almost as significant, all
human endeavor, from science and medicine to philosophy and religion. In such an atmosphere, it is not difcult to imagine that
attitudes toward the venerable institution of war may also have experienced rapid evolution and that its
obsolescence could become plausible, perhaps even probable, in spite of thousands of years of violent precedent. The burden
of proof would seem to be on those who maintain that the rules of the game of international politics,
including the rules of war, are the lone area of human interaction immune to fundamental
evolution and that, due to these immutable and eternal rules, war will always be with us. Rather than ask how major war could
have grown obsolete, perhaps scholars should ask why anyone should believe that it could not.
would result in anything resembling a valid theory in the Popperian sense. We suggest that the
nature, goals and criteria for judging social science theory should be rethought, if theory is to be
more helpful in understanding the real world. We begin by justifying our pessimism, both
conceptually and empirically, and argue that the quest for predictive theory rests on a
mistaken analogy between physical and social phenomena. Evolutionary biology is a more
productive analogy for social science. We explore the value of this analogy in its 'hard' and 'soft'
versions, and examine the implications of both for theory and research in international
relations.' We develop the case for forward `tracking' of international relations on the basis of
local and general knowledge as an alternative to backward-looking attempts to build deductive,
nomothetic theory. We then apply this strategy to some emerging trends in international
relations. This article is not a nihilistic diatribe against 'modern' conceptions of social science.
Rather, it is a plea for constructive humility in the current context of attraction to deductive
logic, falsifiable hypothesis and large- n statistical 'tests' of narrow propositions. We propose a
practical alternative for social scientists to pursue in addition, and in a complementary fashion,
to `scientific' theory-testing. Physical and chemical laws make two kinds of predictions. Some
phenomena the trajectories of individual planets can be predicted with a reasonable
degree of certainty. Only a few variables need to be taken into account and they can be
measured with precision. Other mechanical problems, like the break of balls on a pool table,
while subject to deterministic laws, are inherently unpredictable because of their complexity.
Small differences in the lay of the table, the nap of the felt, the curvature of each ball and where
they make contact, amplify the variance of each collision and lead to what appears as a near
random distribution of balls. Most predictions in science are probabilistic, like the freezing point
of liquids, the expansion rate of gases and all chemical reactions. Point predictions appear
possible only because of the large numbers of units involved in interactions. In the case of
nuclear decay or the expansion of gases, we are talking about trillions of atoms and molecules.
In international relations, even more than in other domains of social science, it is often
impossible to assign metrics to what we think are relevant variables (Coleman, 1964: especially
Chapter 2). The concepts of polarity, relative power and the balance of power are among the
most widely used independent variables, but there are no commonly accepted definitions or
measures for them. Yet without consensus on definition and measurement, almost every
statement or hypothesis will have too much wiggle room to be `tested' decisively against
evidence. What we take to be dependent variables fare little better. Unresolved controversies
rage over the definition and evaluation of deterrence outcomes, and about the criteria for
democratic governance and their application to specific countries at different points in their
history. Differences in coding for even a few cases have significant implications for tests of
theories of deterrence or of the democratic peace (Lebow and Stein, 1990; Chan, 1997). The
lack of consensus about terms and their measurement is not merely the result of intellectual
anarchy or sloppiness although the latter cannot entirely be dismissed. Fundamentally, it has
more to do with the arbitrary nature of the concepts themselves. Key terms in physics, like
mass, temperature and velocity, refer to aspects of the physical universe that we cannot directly
observe. However, they are embedded in theories with deductive implications that have been
verified through empirical research. Propositions containing these terms are legitimate
assertions about reality because their truth-value can be assessed. Social science theories are
for the most part built on 'idealizations', that is, on concepts that cannot be anchored to
observable phenomena through rules of correspondence. Most of these terms (e.g. rational
actor, balance of power) are not descriptions of reality but implicit 'theories' about actors and
contexts that do not exist (Hempel, 1952; Rudner, 1966; Gunnell, 1975; Moe, 1979; Searle,
1995: 68-72). The inevitable differences in interpretation of these concepts lead to different
predictions in some contexts, and these outcomes may eventually produce widely varying
futures (Taylor, 1985: 55). If problems of definition, measurement and coding could be
resolved, we would still find it difficult, if not impossible, to construct large enough samples of
comparable cases to permit statistical analysis. It is now almost generally accepted that in the
analysis of the causes of wars, the variation across time and the complexity of the interaction
among putative causes make the likelihood of a general theory extraordinarily low.
Multivariate theories run into the problem of negative degrees of freedom, yet international
relations rarely generates data sets in the high double digits. Where larger samples do exist,
they often group together cases that differ from one another in theoretically important ways.'
Complexity in the form of multiple causation and equifinality can also make simple statistical
comparisons misleading. But it is hard to elaborate more sophisticated statistical tests until one
has a deeper baseline understanding of the nature of the phenomenon under investigation, as
well as the categories and variables that make up candidate causes (Geddes, 1990: 131-50;
Lustick, 1996: 505-18; Jervis, 1997). Wars to continue with the same example are similar to
chemical and nuclear reactions in that they have underlying and immediate causes. Even when
all the underlying conditions are present, these processes generally require a catalyst to begin.
Chain reactions are triggered by the decay of atomic nuclei. Some of the neutrons they emit
strike other nuclei prompting them to fission and emit more neutrons, which strike still more
nuclei. Physicists can calculate how many kilograms of Uranium 235 or Plutonium at given
pressures are necessary to produce a chain reaction. They can take it for granted that if a
'critical mass' is achieved, a chain reaction will follow. This is because trillions of atoms are
present, and at any given moment enough of them will decay to provide the neutrons needed to
start the reaction. In a large enough sample, catalysts will be present in a statistical sense. Wars
involve relatively few actors. Unlike the weak force responsible for nuclear decay, their catalysts
are probably not inherent properties of the units. Catalysts may or may not be present, and
their potentially random distribution relative to underlying causes makes it difficult to predict
when or if an appropriate catalyst will occur. If in the course of time underlying conditions
change, reducing basic incentives for one or more parties to use force, catalysts that would have
triggered war will no longer do so. This uncertain and evolving relationship between
underlying and immediate causes makes point prediction extraordinarily difficult. It also
makes more general statements about the causation of war problematic, since we have no
way of knowing what wars would have occurred in the presence of appropriate catalysts. It is
probably impossible to define the universe of would-be wars or to construct a representative
sample of them. Statistical inference requires knowledge about the state of independence of
cases, but in a practical sense that knowledge is often impossible to obtain in the analysis of
international relations. Molecules do not learn from experience. People do, or think they do.
Relationships among cases exist in the minds of decision-makers, which makes it very hard to
access that information reliably and for more than just a very small number of cases. We know
that expectations and behavior are influenced by experience, one's own and others. The
deterrence strategies pursued by the United States throughout much of the Cold War were
one kind of response to the failure of appeasement to prevent World War II. Appeasement
was at least in part a reaction to the belief of British leaders that the deterrent policies
pursued by the continental powers earlier in the century had helped to provoke World War I.
Neither appeasement nor deterrence can be explained without understanding the context in
which they were formulated; that context is ultimately a set of mental constructs. We have
descriptive terms like 'chain reaction' or 'contagion effect' to describe these patterns, and
hazard analysis among other techniques in statistics to measure their strength. But neither
explains how and why these patterns emerge and persist. The broader point is that the
relationship between human beings and their environment is not nearly so reactive as with
inanimate objects. Social relations are not clock-like because the values and behavioral
repertories of actors are not fixed; people have memories, learn from experience and undergo
shifts in the vocabulary they use to construct reality. Law-like relationships even if they
existed could not explain the most interesting social outcomes, since these are precisely the
outcomes about which actors have the most incentive to learn and adapt their behavior. Any
regularities would be `soft'; they would be the outcome of processes that are embedded in
history and have a short half-life. They would decay quickly because of the memories, creative
searching and learning by political leaders. Ironically, the`findings' of social science contribute to
this decay (Weber, 1969; Almond and Genco, 1977: 496-522; Gunnell, 1982: Ch. 2; Ball, 1987:
Ch. 4; Kratochwil, 1989; Rorty, 1989; Hollis, 1994: Ch. 9). Beyond these conceptual and empirical
difficulties lies a familiar but fundamental difference of purpose. Boyle's Law, half-lives, or any
other scientific principle based on probability, says nothing about the behavior of single units
such as molecules. For many theoretical and practical purposes this is adequate. But social
science ultimately aspires or should aspire to provide insight into practical world
problems that are generally part of a small or very small n. In international relations, the
dynamics and outcomes of single cases are often much more important than any statistical
regularities. The conception of causality on which deductive-nomological models are based, in
classical physics as well as social science, requires empirical invariance under specified
boundary conditions. The standard form of such a statement is this given A, B and C, if X
then (not) Y.4 This kind of bounded invariance can be found in closed systems. Open systems
can be influenced by external stimuli, and their structure and causal mechanisms evolve as a
result. Rules that describe the functioning of an open system at time T do not necessarilydo so
at T + 1 or T + 2. The boundary conditions may have changed, rendering the statement
irrelevant. Another axiomatic condition may have been added, and the outcome subject to
multiple conjunctural causation. There is no way to know this a priori from the causal statement
itself. Nor will complete knowledge (if it were possible) about the system at time T necessarily
allow us to project its future course ofdevelopment. In a practical sense, all social systems (and
many physical and biological systems) are open. Empirical invariance does not exist in such
systems, and seemingly probabilistic invariances may be causally unrelated (Harre and Secord,
1973; Bhaskar, 1979; Collier, 1994; Patomaki, 1996; Jervis, 1997). As physicists readily admit,
prediction in open systems, especially non-linear ones, is difficult, and often impossible. The risk
in saying that social scientists can 'predict' the value of variables in past history is that the
value of these variables is already known to us, and thus we are not really making predictions.
Rather, we are trying to convince each other of the logic that connects a statement of theory
to an expectation about the value of a variable that derives from that theory. As long as we
can establish the parameters within which the theoretical statement is valid, which is a
prerequisite of generating expectations in any case, this 'theory-testing' or 'evaluating' activity is
not different in a logical sense when done in past or future time.5
instance, very different leaders all came to the same safe conclusion. Take the mother of all
nuclear standoffs: the Cuban missile crisis. For 13 days in October 1962, the United States and
the Soviet Union each threatened the other with destruction. But both countries soon stepped
back from the brink when they recognized that a war would have meant curtains for everyone.
As important as the fact that they did is the reason why: Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev's aide
Fyodor Burlatsky said later on, "It is impossible to win a nuclear war, and both sides realized
that, maybe for the first time." The record since then shows the same pattern repeating:
nuclear-armed enemies slide toward war, then pull back, always for the same reasons. The best
recent example is India and Pakistan, which fought three bloody wars after independence
before acquiring their own nukes in 1998. Getting their hands on weapons of mass destruction
didn't do anything to lessen their animosity. But it did dramatically mellow their behavior. Since
acquiring atomic weapons, the two sides have never fought another war, despite severe
provocations (like Pakistani-based terrorist attacks on India in 2001 and 2008). They have
skirmished once. But during that flare-up, in Kashmir in 1999, both countries were careful to
keep the fighting limited and to avoid threatening the other's vital interests. Sumit Ganguly, an
Indiana University professor and coauthor of the forthcoming India, Pakistan, and the Bomb, has
found that on both sides, officials' thinking was strikingly similar to that of the Russians and
Americans in 1962. The prospect of war brought Delhi and Islamabad face to face with a nuclear
holocaust, and leaders in each country did what they had to do to avoid it. Nuclear pessimists
and there are manyinsist that even if this pattern has held in the past, it's crazy to rely on it in
the future, for several reasons. The first is that today's nuclear wannabes are so completely
unhinged, you'd be mad to trust them with a bomb. Take the sybaritic Kim Jong Il, who's never
missed a chance to demonstrate his battiness, or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has denied the
Holocaust and promised the destruction of Israel, and who, according to some respected Middle
East scholars, runs a messianic martyrdom cult that would welcome nuclear obliteration. These
regimes are the ultimate rogues, the thinking goesand there's no deterring rogues. But are
Kim and Ahmadinejad really scarier and crazier than were Stalin and Mao? It might look that
way from Seoul or Tel Aviv, but history says otherwise. Khrushchev, remember, threatened to
"bury" the United States, and in 1957, Mao blithely declared that a nuclear war with America
wouldn't be so bad because even "if half of mankind died the whole world would become
socialist." Pyongyang and Tehran support terrorismbut so did Moscow and Beijing. And as for
seeming suicidal, Michael Desch of the University of Notre Dame points out that Stalin and Mao
are the real record holders here: both were responsible for the deaths of some 20 million of
their own citizens. Yet when push came to shove, their regimes balked at nuclear suicide, and
so would today's international bogeymen. For all of Ahmadinejad's antics, his power is limited,
and the clerical regime has always proved rational and pragmatic when its life is on the line.
Revolutionary Iran has never started a war, has done deals with both Washington and
Jerusalem, and sued for peace in its war with Iraq (which Saddam started) once it realized it
couldn't win. North Korea, meanwhile, is a tiny, impoverished, family-run country with a history
of being invaded; its overwhelming preoccupation is survival, and every time it becomes more
belligerent it reverses itself a few months later (witness last week, when Pyongyang told Seoul
and Washington it was ready to return to the bargaining table). These countries may be brutally
oppressive, but nothing in their behavior suggests they have a death wish.
"(TTAPS is) an absolutely atrocious piece of science, but I quite despair of setting the public
record straight... Who wants to be accused of being in favor of nuclear war?"
AT: Escalation
Nuclear war would never escalate decisionmakers on both sides would limit
conflict as quickly as possible
Quinlan, Consulting Senior Fellow for South Asia at the International Institute
for Strategic Studies, former British Under-Secretary of Defense, 2009
(Michael, Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects, p. 63-64)
There are good reasons for fearing escalation. These include the confusion of war; its stresses,
anger, haired, and the desire for revenge; reluctance to accept the humiliation of backing down;
the desire to get further blows in first. Given all this, the risks of escalation are grave in any
conflict between advanced powers, and Western leaders during the cold war were rightly wont
to emphasize them in the interests of deterrence. But this is not to say that they are virtually
certain, or even necessarily odds-on; still less that they are so for all the assorted circumstances
in which the situation might arise, in a nuclear world to which past experience is only a limited
guide. It is entirely possible, for example, that the initial use of nuclear weapons, breaching a
barrier that has held since 1945, might so horrify both sides in a conflict that they recognized
an overwhelming common interest in composing their differences. The human pressures in
that direction would be very great.
Even if initial nuclear use did not quickly end the fighting, the supposition of inexorable
momentum in a developing exchange, with each side rushing to overreaction amid confusion
and uncertainty, is implausible . It fails to consider what the situation of the decisionmakers
would really be. Neither side could want escalation. Both would be appalled at what was going
on. Both would be desperately looking for signs that the other was ready to call a halt. Both,
given the capacity for evasion or concealment which modern delivery platforms and vehicles can
possess, could have in reserve significant forces invulnerable enough not to entail use-or-lose
pressures. (It may be more open to question, as noted earlier, whether newer nuclear-weapon
possessors can be immediately in that position; but it is within reach of any substantial state
with advanced technological capabilities, and attaining it is certain to be a high priority in the
development of forces.) As a result, neither side can have any predisposition to suppose, in an
ambiguous situation of fearful risk, that the right course when in doubt is to go on copiously
launching weapons. And none of this analysis rests on any presumption of highly subtle or preconcerted rationality. The rationality required is plain.
AT: Miscalculation
No risk of miscalc
Mueller, Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester, 1988
(John, International Security, Fall)
The argument thus far leads to the conclusion that stability is overdeterminedthat the
postwar situation contains redundant sources of stability. The United States and the Soviet
Union have been essentially satisfied with their lot and, fearing escalation to another costly war,
have been quite willing to keep their conflicts limited. Nuclear weapons may well have
enhanced this stabilitythey are certainly dramatic reminders of how horrible a big war could
be. But it seems highly unlikely that, in their absence, the leaders of the major powers would be
so unimaginative as to need such reminding. Wars are not begun out of casual caprice or idle
fancy, but because one country or another decides that it can profit from (not simply win) the
warthe combination of risk, gain, and cost appears preferable to peace. Even allowing
considerably for stupidity, ineptness, miscalculation, and selfdeception in these
considerations, it does not appear that a large war, nuclear or otherwise, has been remotely in
the interest of the essentiallycontented, riskaverse, escalationanticipating powers that
have dominated world affairs since 1945. It is conceivable of course that the leadership of a
major power could be seized by a lucky, clever, riskacceptant, aggressive fanatic like Hitler; or
that an unprecedentedly monumental crisis could break out in an area, like Central Europe, that
is of vital importance to both sides; or that a major power could be compelled toward war
because it is consumed by desperate fears that it is on the verge of catastrophically losing the
arms race. It is not obvious that any of these circumstances would necessarily escalate to a
major war, but the existence of nuclear weapons probably does make such an escalation less
likely; thus there are imaginable circumstances under which it might be useful to have nuclear
weapons around. In the world weve actually lived in, however, those extreme conditions
havent come about, and they havent ever really even been in the cards. This enhancement of
stability is, therefore, purely theoreticalextra insurance against unlikely calamity.
Add-Ons
Coral Reef
Why do these physiological effects on corals matter to the reef ecosystem, or to human society?
Corals constitute the primary three dimensional structures of most reef systems; any negative
effect to their health will detrimentally affect the health of the reef . A study by HoeghGuldberg et al.published in 2007 demonstrated the effect increasing ocean acidification will
have on coral reef ecosystems. The use of field studies and experimental simulations produced a
model that showed as global ocean temperatures rise and pH levels fall due to increasing
atmospheric CO2, it is expected that coral dominated communities will be replaced by
macroalgae and non-coral dominated communities. The basic cause behind this is decreased
coral calcification: if it becomes harder for the corals to produce their calcium carbonate
skeletons, their structures will become weaker, their growth decreases, they may be eroded or
damaged, and they will be outcompeted by other species, specifically macroalgae. The stress
induced by ocean acidification may also cause reduced coral reproduction, yet another factor
leading to decreased coral dominated reefs. Without corals, the biodiversity of a reef system
greatly decreases as there is no longer a viable habitat for many fish species . For humans, this
means significant potential damage to both fishing and tourism industries that rely on coral
reefs and the fish they support. Without tourism and fishing, many countries would not only
lose a significant source of income, but a significant food source for their growing populations.
Coral reefs also provide protection from wave action and storms, reducing coastal erosion. The
study indicates that the model takes into account atmospheric CO2 increases at the lower end
of predictions for the coming century. The authors astutely note that it is sobering to realize
these serious effects on coral reefs are based on the most optimistic outcomes of
atmospheric CO2 and global temperature changes.
all drugs currently in use, including many of the anti-tumor and anti-infective agents introduced
during the 1980s and 1990s, have their origins in natural products. Most of these were derived
from terrestrial plants, animals, and microorganisms, but marine biotechnology is rapidly
expanding. After all, 80 percent of all life forms on Earth are present only in the oceans. Unique
medicinal properties of coral reef organisms were recognized by Eastern cultures as early as the
14th century, and some species continue to be in high demand for traditional medicines. In
China, Japan, and Taiwan, tonics and medicines derived from seahorse extracts are used to treat
a wide range of ailments, including sexual disorders, respiratory and circulatory problems,
kidney and liver diseases, throat infections, skin ailments, and pain. In recent decades, scientists
using new methods and techniques have intensified the search for valuable chemical
compounds and genetic material found in wild marine organisms for the development of new
commercial products. Until recently, however, the technology needed to reach remote and
deepwater reefs and to commercially develop marine biotechnology products from organisms
occurring in these environments was largely inadequate. The prospect of finding a new drug in
the sea, especially among coral reef species, may be 300 to 400 times more likely than
isolating one from a terrestrial ecosystem. Although terrestrial organisms exhibit great species
diversity, marine organisms have greater phylogenetic diversity, including several phyla and
thousands of species found nowhere else. Coral reefs are home to sessile plants and fungi
similar to those found on land, but coral reefs also contain a diverse assemblage of
invertebrates such as corals, tunicates, molluscs, bryozoans, sponges, and echinoderms that are
absent from terrestrial ecosystems. These animals spend most of their time firmly attached to
the reef and cannot escape environmental perturbations, predators, or other stressors. Many
engage in a form of chemical warfare, using bioactive compounds to deter predation, fight
disease, and prevent overgrowth by fouling and competing organisms. In some animals, toxins
are also used to catch their prey. These compounds may be synthesized by the organism or by
the endosymbiotic microorganisms that inhabit its tissues, or they are sequestered from food
that they eat. Because of their unique structures or properties, these compounds may yield
life-saving medicines or other important industrial and agricultural products.
Antibiotic-resistant super bugs will cause extinction new medicines are key
Keating, Foreign Policy web editor, 9
(Joshua, The End of the World, 11-13-09,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/13/the_end_of_the_world?page=full, ldg)
How it could happen: Throughout history, plagues have brought civilizations to their knees. The
Black Death killed more off more than half of Europe's population in the Middle Ages. In 1918, a
flu pandemic killed an estimated 50 million people, nearly 3 percent of the world's population, a
far greater impact than the just-concluded World War I. Because of globalization, diseases
today spread even faster - witness the rapid worldwide spread of H1N1 currently unfolding. A
global outbreak of a disease such as ebola virus -- which has had a 90 percent fatality rate during
its flare-ups in rural Africa -- or a mutated drug-resistant form of the flu virus on a global scale
could have a devastating, even civilization-ending impact. How likely is it? Treatment of
deadly diseases has improved since 1918, but so have the diseases. Modern industrial farming
techniques have been blamed for the outbreak of diseases, such as swine flu, and as the worlds
population grows and humans move into previously unoccupied areas, the risk of exposure to
previously unknown pathogens increases. More than 40 new viruses have emerged since the
1970s, including ebola and HIV. Biological weapons experimentation has added a new and just
as troubling complication.
Climate Migrants
Equitys estimates are more dire than the U.N.-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), which estimates that 22 million people in Bangladesh will be forced from their
homes by 2050 because of climate change.
A migration of such magnitude can have real-life implications for national budgets,
international law and immigration policies.
Sudden onset migration increasingly likely and triggers resource wars which are
highly likely to escalate
Bahati, Policy Analyst at Africa Faith and Social Justice Network, 2010
(Jacques, Originally published in the Jan-Feb edition of Around Africa, Climate Change: What
About the Displaced?, February 9, 2010, Bahati Ntama Jacques, Policy Analyst,
http://afjn.org/focus-campaigns/other/other-continental-issues/82-general/792-climatechange-what-about-the-displaced.html)
Already, as a result of climate change, at least 18 islands have been submerged worldwide.
These include Lohachara Island in India, Bedford, Kabasgadi and Suparibhanga Island near India.
Other islands are at risk of being submerged. They include Bangladeshs Bhola Island, half of
which is permanently flooded, Kutubdia in southeastern Bangladesh with thousands of people
already displaced and more to be displaced, in Shishmaref and Kivalini of Alaska, and Maldives,
a state island in the Indian Ocean whose President wishes to relocate the entire country.
Climate change-related disasters not only affect ecosystems, but cause people to relocate
either by choice or by force. Some will be displaced within the boundaries of their affected
countries (Internal Displacement or ID) and others will cross state borders. Some will be
displaced because of sudden-onset hydro-meteorological disasters, such as flooding,
hurricanes, landslides, etc. Others will be affected by slow-onset disasters, like desertification,
rising sea levels and droughts. Sea level rise will, in some cases, lead to permanent loss of small
state islands, Maldives being an example, which means permanent displacement of the
inhabitants of the island. In high-risk zones authorities have to choose between the cost of
rebuilding every time a disaster hits or of just displacing the people permanently. Furthermore,
as a result of displacement, disputes over resources such as water and land will cause
violence. It is more than likely that some of the violence will end up in armed conflict.
except for the fact that considerable evidence attests to its likelihood. The notion that resource
scarcity often leads to increased competition is certainly well founded. This is general true
among non-human animals, among which competition for diminishing resources typically leads
to aggressive behaviour.
disrupt the breeding grounds of economically important fish species. Slowing, or adapting to,
global warming is becoming an essential task to reduce the risks of conflict. n123
Meanwhile, the Pacific has China's focused attention. China's diplomatic battle with Taiwan is
only a short- to medium-term issue. If Taiwan remains outside Chinese mainland control, it is
likely that the situation will eventually normalize as the two countries1 economies become even
more symbiotic. Under Taiwan's current China-friendly government, elected in 2008, policies
have already softened. There has been a de facto ceasefire on trying to lure away countries from
each other's sphere of influence and, in an apparent move to avoid annoying China, Taiwan
canceled a summit with its six Pacific-friendly nations.28
Conversely, the more serious China is about invading Taiwan, the less important it is for China to
secure official government-to-government relationships in the Pacific as, if there were a
successful Chinese attack on Taiwan, die small Pacific countries recognizing Taiwan would
quickly change allegiances in order not to be on the losing side of future aid packages. Either
way, the China-Taiwan tug-of-war in the Pacific should be over within a generation or two.
Meanwhile, China's long-term, nationalistic capitalist strategy is to get people on the ground,
owning shops and businesses, and gaining local influence. Economic reasons alone make this
sound policy for China. The strategic and political reasons make it an obvious course to follow.
China is creating a firm buffer of its own design around Taiwan (and perhaps even Japan and
South Korea), making it difficult for the United States to get in and protect its allies. The more
entrenched China becomes in the Pacific, the farther afield it can base submarines and
missiles, and the harder it is for the United States to defend Taiwan, except by remotely
bombing the Chinese mainland. That in itself is unlikely, as China has made it clear that it is
willing to retaliate (or even preempt) with a nuclear attack on the United Statessomething
that few American presidents can risk.29
US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American
cities. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. A Chinese military officer
disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle regarding
nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for
Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in
Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong
pressures from the military to drop it. He said military leaders considered the use of nuclear
weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention.
Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilisation.
There would be no victors in such a war. While the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over
Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty
above everything else.
Space/NASA
Science Diplomacy
information on weather and climate as well as ocean biology, and the cables would be used to
transmit information from sensors on fixed nodes about volcanic and tectonic activity of the
seafloor, earthquakes, and life on or below the seafloor. Also, a fleet of new manned and
unmanned deep-diving vehicles would round out this research infrastructure. Education and
outreach should be an integral part of new ocean science efforts by bringing discoveries to the
public, informing government officials, and fostering collaborations between educators and
the program's scientists, the reports say. These activities will expand previous international
programs. For example, the observatory network will build on current attempts to understand
the weather, climate, and seafloor, such as the Hawaii-2 Observatory -- which consists of marine
telephone cables running between Oahu and Hawaii and the California coast -- and the Tropical
Atmosphere Ocean Array, which contains about 70 moorings in the Pacific and was key to
predicting interannual climate events such as El Nio.
the natural and human world. Values integral to science such as transparency, vigorous inquiry
and informed debate also support effective international relation practices. Furthermore, given
the long-established global trade of scientific information and results, many important
international links are already in place at a scientific level. These links can lead to coalitionbuilding, trust and cooperation on sensitive scientific issues which, when supported at a
political level, can provide a soft politics route to other policy dialogues. That is, if nations are
already working together on global science issues, they may be more likely to be open to
collaboration on other global issues such as trade and security.
companies attempts to gain political influence that they believe is commensurate with their
economic weight, demonstrating the possible emergence of a new political context where
science and technology (S&T) may be augmenting companies audiences and constituencies. To
demonstrate the concept of Curves, Wilson brought up the previous nights question about the
disaggregation of science. As with science, conflict can be subdivided into different categories,
many of which require different tools to achieve lasting and successful resolution. Conflict
cannot be modeled as a steady state, but rather as a bell-shaped curve. On the left side,
conflict is either non-existent or in a pre-conflict state. Accelerators act to raise the level of
conflict to a peak or plateau, and on the right side of the curve, conflict declines. It is
subsequently important to understand at which points on the curve science and technology can
intervene. On the left side, S&T can help prevent conflict, whereas at the peak it can help
reduce it. On the right side, the question remains of how exactly S&T can help sustain the
reduction in conflict.
Philippines
But the peace talks, which are expected to resume in the coming weeks after a two-year hiatus,
are no guarantee that the Moro problem will be resolved or that terrorism will be kept at bay
permanently.
Twenty-eight so-called high value targets have been killed or captured in the region since
2002, and many of the remaining wanted individuals have been confined to the remote
provinces of Sulu and Basilan. But both still see regular outbreaks of violence.
During our stay, the local newspapers carried daily multiple reports of fire fights and
kidnappings in Mindanao. And last year saw only the second-ever attack on American troops in
the southern Philippines since their return to the region. Two U.S. soldiers and one Philippines
marine died when their vehicle ran over a landmine last September en route to a school
development project.
In part, the challenge lies not only in the regions geography (a collection of small islands, some
no larger than a couple of square miles) but also in the local communities, which retain an
entrenched antipathy to any officialdom representing Manila.
Sulu has always been the place of, we say, seasoned warriors, observed Col Aminkadra Undug,
commander of airborne special forces for the AFP. Some of these people have always been
very proud people. They claim they do not succumb to influence from the outside, even though
its their own government.
Where the road ends, terrorism starts
Poverty also is a big factor.
On Jolo island, for instance, where fishing and fruit farming are the main industries, the
average fisherman might bring home about $3 or $4 a day, a fruit farmer even less.
A person actually living in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao area of southern
Mindanao will probably die 10 years earlier than someone in metro Manila, said Gloria Steele,
director of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) mission in the Philippines.
All of which adds up to persistent conditions ripe for terrorist recruitment or an insurgency that
promises better governance for its people. The international terrorist links fed on the feeling of
dissatisfaction of some fundamentalist groups in that area, said Dr. Jennifer Santiago Oreta,
who teaches in the department of political science at Ateneo de Manila University.
To counteract this phenomenon, Filipino and American troops have shifted their strategy,
focusing even more on community and development.
Even if we kill all the high-value targets, thats not going to solve the problem, said U.S.
Army Special Forces Major Varman Chhoeung, the Commander of Task Force Sulu. The bigger
part of the problem is denying safe havens. How do you deny safe havens? You only do that
through good governance and through economic growth in the area.
The major showed us around Jolo, where hes stationed with 130 U.S. troops. In line with the
idea that where the road ends, terrorism starts, modest infrastructural improvements have
been made across Jolo.
Roads have been built or repaired. An airstrip was recently refurbished with the assistance of
U.S. troops, enabling the first commercial flight to land in Jolo. There are projects to build
schools and ongoing plans to establish more health clinics.
In addition to the American troops contributions, USAID has funneled more than $500 million in
assistance to Mindanao since 2002. Our programs have focused primarily in the areas of
health, education, energy, good governance, rule of law as well as infrastructure and economic
growth, said Steele.
In Panamao Municipality, which saw recent skirmishes with what the Philippines military call
rogue MILF elements, there is one hospital with 10 to 15 beds serving an estimated 44,000
villagers in the community.
There is only one doctor, one dentist, said Dr. Silak Lakkian, the chief of the hospital in
Panamao. We have four midwives, and we have five nurses.
The doctor said her hospital had received a lot of what she called disposables medicine and
some basic medical supplies from the Americans. But that was four years ago, she said.
*L+ately we havent received any.
Defense, diplomacy, development
Were at a critical juncture thanks to the efforts of our military operation with USAID and the
Armed Forces of the Philippines, said Harry Thomas, Jr., the U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines.
We are near eliminating the terrorist threat, but we have to sustain it. Thats why were still
trying to do the three tenets: defense, diplomacy, and development.
Impact LNG
Terrorists in the Philippines will attack LNG tankers
Sittnick, Attorney, 2005
(Tammy M., State Responsibility and Maritime Terrorism in the Strait of Malacca: Persuading
Indonesia and Malaysia to Take Additional Steps to Secure the Strait 14 Pac. Rim L. & Poly
743, Lexis)
Several possible maritime terrorist scenarios exist. As the 1985 hijacking of the Italian cruise
ship Achille Lauro and the recent attacks on the Philippine ferry indicate, passenger ships,
especially ferries and cruise ships, are vulnerable targets. Such ships could either be blown up
or used as weapons against other ships or a seaport. Either scenario would likely result in a
large number of civilian casualties. Other possible attacks include the use of shipping containers
to smuggle weapons of mass destruction into a country and the use of a ship to launch an attack
on a port city. Additionally, attacks similar to those perpetuated against the U.S.S. Cole or the
French supertanker Limburg remain possible.
Another serious concern is the maritime equivalent of the September 11th attacks. If
terrorists hijacked a ship, especially one carrying flammable materials such as oil or liquefied
natural gas, they would have the potential to blow the ship up at one of the narrow point in
the Strait of Malacca, or ram the ship into another ship or port. The September 1992 collision
in the Strait of Malacca between the tanker Nagaski Spirit and the container ship Ocean Blessing
illustrates how easily terrorists could conduct a similar, but more disastrous operation.
LNG is less than half as dense as water, so a cubic meter of LNG (the usual unit of measure)
weighs just over half a ton. 1 LNG contains about thirty percent less energy per cubic meter than
oil, but is potentially far more hazardous. 2 Burning oil cannot spread very far on land or water,
but a cubic meter of spilled LNG rapidly boils into about six hundred twenty cubic meters of
pure natural gas, which in turn mixes with surrounding air. Mixtures of between about five and
fourteen percent natural gas in air are flammable. Thus a single cubic meter of spilled LNG can
make up to twelve thousand four hundred cubic meters of flammable gas-air mixture. A single
modern LNG tanker typically holds one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters of LNG,
equivalent to twenty-seven hundred million cubic feet of natural gas. That gas can form
between about twenty and fifty billion cubic feet of flammable gas-air mixtureseveral
hundred times the volume of the Great Pyramid of Cheops. About nine percent of such a
tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto water, boil to gas in about five minutes. 3 (It does
not matter how cold the water is; it will be at least two hundred twenty-eight Fahrenheit
degrees hotter than the LNG, which it will therefore cause to boil violently.) The resulting gas,
however, will be so cold that it will still be denser than air. It will therefore flow in a cloud or
plume along the surface until it reaches an ignition source. Such a plume might extend at least
three miles downwind from a large tanker spill within ten to twenty minutes. 4 It might
ultimately reach much fartherperhaps six to twelve miles. 5 If not ignited, the gas is
asphyxiating. If ignited, it will burn to completion with a turbulent diffusion flame reminiscent of
the 1937 Hindenberg disaster but about a hundred times as big. Such a fireball would burn
everything within it, and by its radiant heat would cause third-degree burns and start fires a mile
or two away. 6 An LNG fireball can blow through a city, creating a very large number of
ignitions and explosions across a wide area. No present or foreseeable equipment can put out
a very large [LNG]...fire. 7 The energy content of a single standard LNG tanker (one hundred
twenty-five thousand cubic meters) is equivalent to seven-tenths of a megaton of TNT, or about
fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.
Impact Spratlys
Fighting insurgency trades off with deterrence cant prevent Spratlys
intrusion
Lohman and De Castro, 2010
(Walter, Director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation, and Renato C. De,
Professor in the International Studies Department of De La Salle University (Manila) and holds
the Dr. Aurelio Calderon Professorial Chair of PhilippineAmerican Relations. Empowering a
New Era in the United States-Philippines Security Alliance. Heritage Foundation. June 28,
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/06/empowering-a-new-era-in-the-unitedstates-philippines-security-alliance)
It has also been observed that the AFPs focus on internal security has forced it to use its
existing military materiel continuously under adverse combat conditions, causing excessive
wear and tear that has reduced their effectiveness and reliability.[36] For example,
deployment of PN patrol crafts in the counterinsurgency/counterterrorism operations in
southern Philippines has reduced patrol visibility in other critical areas. This has led to increased
intrusion by foreign vessels into Philippine territorial waters.[37] Thus, in terms of overall AFP
territorial defense capabilities, the 2007 assessment pessimistically and candidly admits:
[T]he AFPs overall capability to defend the country against external threats in maritime and
air environment remains inadequate. This situation is nowhere more manifest than in the
Kalayaan Island Group (Spratlys) wherein the AFP is unable to prevent and respond to
intrusion into our EEZ or show our resolve in defending areas we are claiming.[38]
Impact Malacca
Insurgency will disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Malacca collapses the
Chinese, Japanese and South Korean economies
Luft and Korin, 2004
(Gal Luft Executive Director of the Institute for Analysis of Global security, Anne Korin
Director of Policy and Strategic Planning, IAGS, terrorism goes to sea,
http://www.southchinasea.org/docs/Foreign%20Affairs%20%20Terrorism%20Goes%20to%20Sea%20-%20Gal%20Luft%20and%20Anne%20.htm]
Pirates and Islamist terrorist groups have long operated in the same areas, including the
Arabian Sea, the South China Sea, and in waters off the coast of western Africa. Now, in the face
of massive international efforts to freeze their finances, terrorist groups have come to view
piracy as a potentially rich source of funding. This appeal is particularly apparent in the Strait
of Malacca, the 500-mile corridor separating Indonesia and Malaysia, where 42 percent of
pirate attacks took place in 2003. According to Indonesia's state intelligence agency, detained
senior members of Jemaah Islamiyah, the al Qaeda-linked Indonesian terrorist group, have
admitted that the group has considered launching attacks on Malacca shipping. And uniformed
members of the Free Aceh Movement, an Indonesian separatist group that is also one of the
most radical Islamist movements in the world, have been hijacking vessels and taking their
crews hostage at an increasing rate. The protracted ransom negotiations yield considerable
sums-the going rate is approximately $100,000 per ship-later used to procure weapons for
sustained operations against the Indonesian government. In some cases, the Free Aceh
Movement has demanded the release of members detained by the government in exchange for
hostages.
The string of maritime attacks perpetrated in recent years demonstrates that terror has
indeed gone to sea. In January 2000, al Qaeda attempted to ram a boat loaded with explosives
into the USS The Sullivans in Yemen. (The attack failed only because the boat sank under the
weight of its lethal payload.) After this initial failure, al Qaeda suicide bombers in a speedboat
packed with explosives blew a hole in the USS Cole, killing 17 sailors, in October 2000. In
October 2002, an explosives-laden boat hit the French oil tanker Limburg off the coast of
Yemen. In February 2004, the southern Philippines-based Abu Sayyaf claimed responsibility for
an explosion on a large ferry that killed at least 100 people. And according to FBI Director Robert
Mueller, "any number of attacks on ships have been thwarted." In June 2002, for example, the
Moroccan government arrested a group of al Qaeda operatives suspected of plotting raids on
British and U.S. tankers passing through the Strait of Gibraltar.
Terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Jemaah Islamiyah , the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine-General Command, and Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers have long sought to develop a
maritime capability. Intelligence agencies estimate that al Qaeda and its affiliates now own
dozens of phantom ships-hijacked vessels that have been repainted and renamed and operate
under false documentation, manned by crews with fake passports and forged competency
certificates. Security experts have long warned that terrorists might try to ram a ship loaded
with explosive cargo, perhaps even a weapon of mass destruction, into a major port or
terminal. Such an attack could bring international trade to a halt, inflicting multi-billion-dollar
damage on the world economy.
BLACK GOLD
Following the attack on the Limburg, Osama bin Laden released an audio tape warning of
attacks on economic targets in the West: "By God, the youths of God are preparing for you
things that would fill your hearts with terror and target your economic lifeline until you stop
your oppression and aggression." It is no secret that one of the most effective ways for terrorists
to disrupt the global economy is to attack oil supplies-in the words of al Qaeda spokesmen, "the
provision line and the feeding artery of the life of the crusader nation."
With global oil consumption at 80 million barrels per day and spare production capacity
gradually eroding, the oil market has little wiggle room. As a result, supply disruptions can have
a devastating impact on oil prices-as terrorists well know. U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer
Abraham has repeatedly warned that "terrorists are looking for opportunities to impact the
world economy" by targeting energy infrastructure. In recent years, terrorists have targeted
pipelines, refineries, pumping stations, and tankers in some of the world's most important
energy reservoirs, including Iraq, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.
In fact, since September 11, 2001, strikes on oil targets have become almost routine. In October
2001, Tamil Tiger separatists carried out a coordinated suicide attack by five boats on an oil
tanker off northern Sri Lanka. Oil facilities in Nigeria, the United States' fifth-largest oil supplier,
have undergone numerous attacks. In Colombia, leftist rebels have blown so many holes in the
480-mile Ca-o Lim -- n-Cove-as pipeline that it has become known as "the flute." And in Iraq,
more than 150 attacks on the country's 4,000-mile pipeline system have hindered the effort to
resume oil production, denying Iraqis funds necessary for the reconstruction effort. In April
2004, suicide bombers in three boats blew themselves up in and around the Basra terminal
zone, one of the most heavily guarded facilities of its kind in the world.
Particularly vulnerable to oil terrorism is Saudi Arabia, which holds a quarter of the globe's oil
reserves and, as the world's leading exporter, accounts for one-tenth of daily oil production. Al
Qaeda is well aware that a successful attack on one of the kingdom's major oil facilities would
rattle the world and send oil prices through the ceiling. In the summer of 2002, a group of Saudis
was arrested for plotting to sabotage the world's largest offshore oil-loading facility, Ras Tanura,
through which up to a third of Saudi oil flows. More recently, in May 2004, jihadist gunmen
opened fire on foreign workers in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia's petrochemical complex on the Red Sea,
killing five foreign nationals. Later in the same month, Islamic extremists seized and killed 22
foreign oil workers in the Saudi city of Khobar. All of these attacks caused major disruptions in
the oil market and a spike in insurance premiums, bringing oil prices to their highest level since
1990.
Whereas land targets are relatively well protected, the super-extended energy umbilical cord
that extends by sea to connect the West and the Asian economies with the Middle East is more
vulnerable than ever. Sixty percent of the world's oil is shipped by approximately 4,000 slow and
cumbersome tankers. These vessels have little protection, and when attacked, they have
nowhere to hide. (Except on Russian and Israeli ships, the only weapons crewmembers have
today to ward off attackers are high-powered fire hoses and spotlights.)
If a single tanker were attacked on the high seas, the impact on the energy market would be
marginal. But geography forces the tankers to pass through strategic chokepoints, many of
which are located in areas where terrorists with maritime capabilities are active. These
channels-major points of vulnerability for the world economy-are so narrow at points that a
single burning supertanker and its spreading oil slick could block the route for other vessels.
Were terrorist pirates to hijack a large bulk carrier or oil tanker, sail it into one of the
chokepoints, and scuttle it to block the sea-lane, the consequences for the global economy
would be severe: a spike in oil prices, an increase in the cost of shipping due to the need to use
alternate routes, congestion in sea-lanes and ports, more expensive maritime insurance, and
probable environmental disaster. Worse yet would be several such attacks happening
simultaneously in multiple locations worldwide.
The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, is only 1.5 miles wide at
its narrowest point. Roughly 15 million barrels of oil are shipped through it daily. Between 1984
and 1987, when tankers were frequently attacked in the strait, shipping in the gulf dropped by
25 percent, causing the United States to intervene militarily. Since then, the strait has been
relatively safe, but the war on terrorism has brought new threats. In his 2003 State of the Union
address, President George W. Bush revealed that U.S. forces had already prevented terrorist
attacks on ships there. Bab el Mandeb, the entrance to the Red Sea and a conduit for 3.3 million
barrels per day, also is only 1.5 miles wide at its narrowest point. The Bosporus, linking the Black
Sea to the Mediterranean, is less than a mile wide in some areas; ten percent of the 50,000
ships that pass through it each year are tankers carrying Russian and Caspian oil.
According to the IMB, however, the most dangerous passage of all is the Strait of Malacca.
Every day, a quarter of world trade, including half of all sea shipments of oil bound for eastern
Asia and two-thirds of global shipments of liquefied natural gas, passes through this strait.
Roughly 600 freighters loaded with everything from Japanese nuclear waste bound for
reprocessing facilities in Europe to raw materials for China's booming economy traverse this
chokepoint daily. Roughly half of all piracy attacks today occur in Southeast Asia, mostly in
Indonesian waters. Singapore's defense minister, Teo Chee Hean, has said that security along
the strait is "not adequate" and that "no single state has the resources to deal effectively with
this threat." Any disruption of shipping in the South China Sea would harm not only the
economies of China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, but that of the United States
as well.
only essential for the long-term health of the global economy, it is also needed as a counterweight to the growing power of China. A collapse in the Japanese economy, which looks ever
more likely, would have profound ramifications; some experts believe it could even unleash a
wave of extreme nationalism that would push the country into conflict with its bigger (and
nuclear) neighbour.
investment also suppress business growth: the Philippines' investment-to-GDP ratio currently
stands at 19.7 percent. By comparison, the investment rate is 33 percent in Indonesia, 27
percent in Thailand, and 24 percent in Malaysia. For the select few Filipinos who live in beach
towns and other popular tourism areas, however, the recent influx of foreign tourists to the
previously overlooked country has meant new business opportunities. Celso Serran, 38, a
rickshaw driver in the growing tourist town of El Nido, said that the economic impact of tourism
has had a significant impact on his income. "Today, a driver can reasonably expect to make 500
Philippine Pesos ($12.16) per day," said Serran. "Before the tourists started coming, he might
make 200 PHP ($4.86) on a good day." For some, the tourism industry is so clearly the only
option that it even pulls them away from their hometowns towards more tourist-friendly cities.
Dorina Genturo, 20, moved from Puerto Princesa, the capital of Palawan, to El Nido for the
better job opportunities there. "There are definitely a lot more jobs in tourism, in hotels and
tour companies," she said. "But it's not like this in other towns." Meanwhile, other huge
sectors of Filipino industry (such as banking, telecommunications, and property development)
are almost entirely monopolized by a few elite political families, most of whom have been in
power since the Spanish colonial era. And despite wide-reaching government reforms from the
1980s, those industries remain effective oligarchies or cartels that vastly outperform small
businesses. According to a paper released by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies,
small and medium enterprises (SMEs) account for roughly 99 percent of Filipino firms.
However, those SMEs only account for 35 percent of national output--a sharp contrast with
Japan and Korea, where the same ratio of SMEs accounts for roughly half of total output. This
translates into far fewer high-paying jobs on the local level for Filipino employees and
exacerbates the huge income disparity across the country. "Is the economy growing here?"
said Josefa Ramirez, 31, who earns roughly 123 pesos ($3) a day selling bottles of water and
soda from a cart in Manila. "I didn't know that. For me, things feel the same as they always did."
to affect the economy. According to the authorities, the DAP has not been activated in 2014 so
there should not be significant implications in terms of spending and growth in 2014 unless the
DAP ruling leads to a generalized slowdown in spending execution, he said. The IMF sees
Philippine economic growth hitting 6.5% this year and the next. The projections were bared at
the end of an Article IV consultation in March, as well as in the World Economic Outlook (WEO)
report that was released early April. Last month, Mr. Peiris said the lenders 2014 forecast could
be revised downwards with the release of the Article IV report and the next WEO revision this
month following the worse-than-expected first quarter. From this years 6.5-7.5%, the
government is targeting an even higher 7-8% expansion for 2015. In 2013, GDP growth beat
the 6-7% goal by coming in at 7.2%.
Topicality
1AR: T Explore
Exploration is collecting information
Binus 9 Binus University Thesis, CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY, 4-21,
http://thesis.binus.ac.id/doc/Bab3/Bab%203_09-52.pdf
The type of research for this study is the 'exploratory study'. The term exploration means: the
process of collecting information to formulate or refine management, research, investigative,
or measurement questions: loosely structured studies that discover future research tasks,
including developing concepts, establishing priorities, developing operational definitions, and
improving research design : a phase of a research project where the researcher expands
understanding of the management dilemma. Looks for ways others have addressed and solved
problems similar to the management dilemma or management question, and gathers
background information on the topic to refine the research questions. (Cooper. Donald R.
Schindler. Pamela S.) I found that this method suits the aim to study and find out the consumer
behavior in the mall.
national strategy for ocean exploration. The report was commissioned by the White House on
the bicentennial of the Lewis and Clark expedition, and was intended to expand exploration of
our planet to the portions that lie under the sea.
The panel embraced the charge with relish, and recommended that the nation implement a
program of ocean exploration with 4 elements:
1. Voyages of discovery.
2. Platform and instrumentation development.
3. Data management and dissemination.
4. Formal and informal educational outreach.
usual and customary meaning , that is, something of real worth and importance; of considerable
value; valuable, something worthwhile as distinguished from something without value or merely nominal
Disadvantages
2AC: Agenda DA
Non unique link - Obama recently made public statements in favor of
acidification policy
Gray, 2014
(FACT SHEET: Leading at Home and Internationally to Protect Our Ocean and Coasts
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/17/fact-sheet-leading-home-andinternationally-protect-our-ocean-and-coasts)
Weve already shown that when we work together, we can protect our oceans for future
generations. So lets redouble our efforts. Lets make sure that years from now we can look our
children in the eye and tell them that, yes, we did our part, we took action, and we led the way
toward a safer, more stable world. President Barack Obama, June 17, 2014 President Obama
is committed to protecting the ocean and its marine ecosystems. Americans all over the
country depend on the ocean for food, jobs, and recreation. But the health of our ocean is
under threat on multiple fronts, from overfishing to carbon pollution. The recently released
National Climate Assessment confirms that climate change is causing sea levels and ocean
temperatures to rise. Changing temperatures can harm coral reefs and force certain species to
migrate. In addition, carbon pollution is being absorbed by the oceans, causing them to acidify,
which can damage coastal shellfish beds and reefs, altering entire marine ecosystems. In fact,
the acidity of our ocean is changing 50 times faster than any known change in millions of years.
And black market fishingfishing that is illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU)continues
to pose a major threat to the sustainability of our worlds fisheries, economies and to global
security. Recognizing these significant challenges, President Obama launched the National
Ocean Policy early in his first term. The National Ocean Policy seeks to streamline more than
100 laws that govern our oceans and create a coordinated, science-based approach to managing
the many resources and uses of our coasts and oceans. National Ocean Policy initiatives range
from voluntary marine planning to releasing more federal data to supporting offshore
renewable energy projects to making our ports more resilient to sea level rise. This week, the
State Department is hosting the Our Ocean conference, an international conference on
sustainable fisheries, marine pollution, and ocean acidification that concludes today. Secretary
Kerry has also issued a global call to action to protect the oceans. As part of the conference, the
President is announcing several steps that the United States is taking to answer that call. During
the closing events of the conference, the State Department will announce additional steps and
commitments it has secured to protect our oceans.
variability and change at global and regional scales. James Bradbury, Ph.D., has worked since
2006 as a Legislative Aide to Rep. Jay Inslee (WA-1) where he focuses on U.S. national energy
and climate policy, as well as environmental issues relating to fisheries and agriculture. James
holds a Ph.D. in Geosciences from the University of Massachusetts-Amherst and a Masters
Degree in Hydrology from the University of New Hampshire
To U.S. policymakers currently focused on solutions to global warming, the issue of ocean
acidification adds another important reason why fast policy actions are necessary to abate
CO2 emissions, protect our economy, and preserve the health of our global ecosystems. With
rising sea levels, shrinking glaciers, and sea-ice disappearing rapidly in the Arctic, a sense of
urgency is already palpable to many policymakers, particularly those committed to achieving
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (UNFCCC, 1992). On
the research side, in the 109th Congress, Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA) successfully passed an
amendment to the Magnuson- Stevens reauthorization bill requiring that the National Research
Council study the effects of ocean acidification; however, without Congressional
appropriations, this will remain an unfunded request. The 110th Congress made significant
progress toward passing into law a comprehensive bill (the Federal Ocean Acidification
Research and Monitoring Act; the FOARAM Act) that would authorize greater funding levels
and establish a more coordinated national effort to research, monitor, model, and assess the
impacts of ocean acidification. Due to a combination of unfortunate timing and unfavorable
election-year politics, this bill never passed in the 110th Congress. THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS
FOR THE FOARAM ACT Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), introduced with Senator Maria
Cantwell (D-WA), in June, 2007, S. 1581 (the FOARAM Act), a few weeks after the Senate
Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard held a hearing on the effects
of climate change and ocean acidification on living marine resources. The bill subsequently
earned bipartisan support and passed by voice vote out of the Committee on Commerce,
Science, and Transportation in December 2007. In November 2007, Rep. Tom Allen (D-ME)
introduced with bipartisan support the House companion to the FOARAM Act (H.R. 4174). In
June 2008, the bill moved quickly through committee and to the Floor, where it passed by voice
vote on July 9th. Through this process, the House Committee on Science and Technology gave
the FOARAM Act significant vetting, beginning with a hearing on June 5th in the Subcommittee
on Energy and Environment. Testifying at the June hearing was a panel of expert witnesses. To
reflect recommendations made in the hearing, Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) and Rep. Bob Inglis (RSC) together with the Committee on Science and Technology produced the amended version of
H.R. 4174 that later passed on the House Floor. The bill would establish an Executive Branch
interagency program, coordinated by the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology
(JSOST), to develop and manage a comprehensive plan to better understand and address ocean
acidification issues. The program would provide for assessment of ecosystem and
socioeconomic impacts, monitor and model chemical and biological changes, research
adaptation strategies to conserve marine ecosystems, and technology development for
improved carbonate chemistry measurements. The bill would also require JSOST to actively
involve a broad range of ocean community stakeholders in the development of the plan,
including universities, states, industry, and environmental groups. Finally, the bill would
authorize ocean acidification activities at the National Science Foundation and the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration and authorize funding for these activities over a four-year
period. Despite having cleared most other hurdles to final passage, legislative progress in 2008
on FOARAM stalled in the Senate when U.S. Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) put a hold on S. 1581,
along with a raft of other bills that would increase authorized government spending levels.
Putting bills on hold prevents Senate leadership from expediting their passage by requiring first
that they be subject to debate and votes on the Senate Floor. Since Senate Floor time is a
premium commodity, the act of placing a bill on hold is practically tantamount to killing it,
especially in the final days of a legislative year. A partisan debate over energy policy in the
summer and a financial crisis in the fall prevented any other legislative progress in 2008. NEXT
STEPS Public outreach and education efforts could be increased so that Americans better
understand the link between global warming and ocean acidification. For example, in May 2008,
Senator Cantwell held a Congressional field hearing in Washington State to examine the impacts
of climate change on ocean and coastal ecosystems in the region. Witnesses testified on the
effects of climate change and ocean acidification on marine ecosystems in Puget Sound and
coastal Washington, including the economic impacts on coastal communities. The development
and legislative progress of the FOARAM Act represents a significant step forward for federal
ocean research, policy, and governance. Environmental policy leaders in the House and Senate
will likely take it up again early in the 111th Congress. Once passed and signed into law,
additional funding plus the process of establishing a plan for research, monitoring, and
impacts assessment will further engage a variety of national and international stakeholders,
particularly the fishing industry and coastal communities, who have a significant economic stake
in sustainable ocean ecosystem management. Though the issue of ocean acidification has come
somewhat late to the climate policy debate, most energy and land-use policy solutions are well
suited to addressing both global warming and ocean acidification. Thus, further research into
the ocean acidification phenomenon will help inform policy decisions regarding the mitigation
and adaptation solutions to this and other climate change impacts. Meanwhile, efforts to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions through meaningful national and international policy action will
remain an urgent matter, if we are to prevent catastrophic climate change and the most severe
consequences of ocean acidification.
species which form the foundation of the marine food web*and+ we cannot risk placing them
in jeopardy.
Testimony included a wide range of interests from the fishing and marine recreational
industry to scientists and Hollywood.
Despite victories on specific issues, however, the overall trend for ocean conservation cannot be
considered positive, as the final Pew Oceans Commission report makes clear. The influence and
effectiveness of those who oppose critical conservation measures, including many commercial
and recreational fishermen and their organizations, have grown in recent years, both as a
result of the prevailing federal and state political climates and because of their improved
efforts at organizing, lobbying, and flexing their political muscle . The short-term economic
evaluations of proposed conservation measures continue to drive most marine policy debates.
Thus, while the threats to the ocean and its wildlife continue to mount, efforts to achieve real
and lasting conservation are encountering powerful opposition . Unfortunately, the ocean
conservation community has had trouble countering this resistance, and finds itself increasingly
on the defensive.
This week the White House announced a new Climate Data Initiative that is intended to
combine private sector innovation and resources with the power of federal data from NOAA,
NASA, the US Geological Survey and other federal agencies on key issues like coastal flooding and sea
level rise. Thats sound science and wise use of scarce federal resources worth noting.
The idea is that providing this information will help communities develop data-driven
planning and resilience tools for local communities. This is precisely the type of government
effort that should receive support from both Democrats and Republicans. Indeed, its a direct
outgrowth of efforts undertaken in the Bush Administration through the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program.
Even partisan Republicans can congratulate this Administration for carrying those
efforts forward .
2AC: Midterms DA
The public wont perceive the plan
Logan, PhD in ecological physiology at Hopkins Marine Station of Stanford
University, 2010
(A Review of Ocean Acidification and America's Response
http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/60/10/819.full)
Climate change is a complex concept, difficult for the public to conceptualize and relate to at a
personal level (Lorenzoni and Pidgeon 2006). As a subtopic of global change, ocean acidification
is even more difficult to understand because of confusion over basic chemistry and
misunderstandings of pH (Kleypas et al. 2005). Overall, public awareness of ocean
acidification appears relatively low compared with the recent attention it has gained within
the scientific community and the government. Public awareness. To date, no surveys have
examined public awareness of ocean acidification. Examination of popular magazine and news
articles provides some idea of the level of public awareness. Three longer pieces about ocean
acidification have appeared in high-circulation popular magazines (in The New Yorker, Kolbert
2006; in Scientific American, Doney 2006; in New Scientist, Henderson 2006), but these
magazines reach only a limited audience. During 20072009, 12 articles on ocean acidification
appeared in the New York Times (as found by a search on the engine LexisNexis). Over the same
time frame, nine articles on ocean acidification appeared in other high-circulation regional
newspapers (e.g., by rank, Miami Herald [8], Honolulu Star-Bulletin [6], The Washington Post [5],
San Francisco Chronicle [4], Seattle Times [4], San Diego Union-Tribune [4], Los Angeles Times
[2]; LexisNexis). In a Washington Post article published 7 July 2008, science writer Andrew
Freedman called ocean acidification the sleeper issue of climate change : If I were to
rank climate change impacts in terms of sexiness or pizzazz, ocean acidification would rank
near the bottom of the list. The relatively slow, unseen process would be well behind the
drama of highly visible shifts such as more intense hurricanes, severe droughts, and melting
sea and glacial ice (Freedman 2008). Social-networking sites, films, and the blogosphere are
other media we can use to gauge public awareness of ocean acidification. The World Ocean
Observatory presented an online, interactive Webcast on ocean acidification in 2006 (WOO
2009). The Webcast included some of the top researchers in the field, but attracted only 170
attendees worldwide. On the social-networking Web site Facebook, there are two common
interest groups related to ocean acidification; the largest has 187 members and is called Stop
the acidification of the oceanshelp fight rising CO2 levels. This group's size is small compared
with the largest climate change interest group, Slow climate change, with 54,400 members.
At least three blogs are specifically dedicated to ocean acidification, one sponsored by the 27institute research consortium European Project of Ocean Acidification (EPOCA 2009); another by
the Alaska Marine and Conservation Council (AMCC 2009); and one published by an
independent environmental blogger, Rhett A. Butler (Ocean Acidification News,
http://news.mongabay.com/news-index/ocean_acidification1.html). In 2009, two full-length US
documentary films on ocean acidification were released, A Sea Change (Niijii Films) and Acid
Test (see NRDC 2009). Oceans-related nongovernmental organizations and marine educators
have also attempted to stimulate public interest (e.g., Oceana report, Harrould-Kolieb and Savitz
2008; special issue of Current: Journal of Marine Education, NMEA 2009). A detailed comparison
of public awareness in the United States and other countries may be revealing, though no such
survey information is currently available. European public awareness may be greater than in the
United States (see the Dissemination and Media Center on the EPOCA Web site).
have appeared in high-circulation popular magazines (in The New Yorker, Kolbert 2006; in Scientific American,
Doney 2006; in New Scientist, Henderson 2006), but these magazines reach only a limited audience . During
20072009, 12 articles on ocean acidification appeared in the New York Times (as found by a search
on the engine LexisNexis). Over the same time frame, nine articles on ocean acidification appeared in
other high-circulation regional newspapers (e.g., by rank, Miami Herald [8], Honolulu Star-Bulletin [6], The
Washington Post [5], San Francisco Chronicle [4], Seattle Times [4], San Diego Union-Tribune [4], Los Angeles Times [2]; LexisNexis).
In a Washington Post article published 7 July 2008, science writer Andrew Freedman called ocean acidification the sleeper issue of
climate change: If
acidification would rank near the bottom of the list . The relatively slow, unseen process would be well behind
the drama of highly visible shifts such as more intense hurricanes, severe droughts, and melting sea and glacial ice (Freedman
2008). Social-networking sites, films, and the blogosphere are other media we can use to gauge public awareness of ocean
acidification. The
should DoD decide to stop fielding weather satellites, the WMO standard would not be met in
the AM orbitunless some other nation were to field an AM satellite.
The operational impact of a gap in orbital coverage is difficult to assess, and few studies are
available in the open literature that address the issue. One recent study by EUMETSAT,
however, concluded that a loss of data from any single polar orbit would affect forecasts
significantly less than loss of data from all of the orbits; for example, loss of data from a single
orbit was estimated to reduce the accuracy of five- day forecasts in the European region by
only about two percent , whereas the loss of data from all orbits would reduce the accuracy
of those forecasts by about 12 percent .18
(Sec. Hagel Spotlights U.S. military readiness crisis, Nov. 18, online:
http://armedservices.house.gov/index.cfm/defense-drumbeatblog?ContentRecord_id=76851964-c8fb-43e1-a0d454571a409461&ContentType_id=3656d01d-1920-44b6-a520385c45d19f4e&Group_id=01c27866-262f-49c1-ac395242779de598&MonthDisplay=3&YearDisplay=2013)
WASHINGTON Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel spoke on the dire condition of military
readiness at the Reagan National Defense Forum Saturday in Simi Valley, CA. Selected excerpts
from Sec. Hagels speech below spotlight specific and serious vulnerabilities to American
national security caused by significant defense cuts made since 2011.
Building on themes discussed at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Rep. Rob Wittman will be
speaking at a Foreign Policy Initiative meeting this week on The Impact of Defense Cuts on
Military Readiness Thursday, November 21 from 12:30 1:30 PM in 562 Dirksen Senate Office
Building. Along with other distinguished guests, Chairman Wittman will brief Congressional staff
on the readiness challenges the military faces today.
Secretary Hagel:
Read the full remarks
While our people today are strong and resilient after 12 years of war, they are under
tremendous stress from years of repeated deployments, and so are the institutions that
support them, train them, and equip them. As you all know, the department is currently facing
sequester-level cuts on the order of $500 billion over the next 10 years. This is in addition in
addition to the 10-year $487 billion reduction in DoDs budget that is already underway. That
means we are looking at nearly $1 trillion in DoD cuts over this 10-year period, unless there is
a new budget agreement.
Consider that since sequestration began, just a couple of examples.
The Navys average global presence is now down more than 10 percent, with
particularly sharp reductions in regions like South America.
The Army has had to cancel final training rotations for seven brigade combat
teams. Thats more than 15 percent of the entire force, and it now has just two of the 43 activeduty brigade combat teams fully ready and available to execute a major combat operation.
Air Force units lost 25 percent of the annual training events that keep them qualified for
their assigned missions, and
Marine Corps units not going to Afghanistan are getting 30 percent less funding just as
the service is facing more demands for more embassy security and more Marines around the
world.
These are all current readiness realities, and they have all occurred since the imposition of
sequestration in March. But the effects will be felt for a long period of time to come . By
continuing to cancel training for non-deploying personnel, we will create a backlog of training
requirements that could take years to recover from. And inevitably, we are shrinking the size of
the force that is ready and available to meet new contingencies or respond to crises across the
globe.
operations. A 2001 Navy study concluded that an ice-free Arctic will require an increased
scope of naval operations *35+. That increased scope of operations will require the Navy to
consider weapon system effectiveness and various other factors associated with operating in
this environment. Additionally, an Arctic with less sea ice could bring more competition for
resources, as well as more commercial and military activity that could further threaten an
already fragile ecosystem. Department of Defense energy supplies are vulnerable to extreme
weather The DoD is almost completely dependent on electricity from the national grid to
power critical missions at fixed installations and on petroleum to sustain combat training and
operations. Both sources of energy and their distribution systems are susceptible to damage
from extreme weather. The national electric grid is fragile and can be easily disrupted. Witness
the Northeast Blackout of 2003, which was caused by trees falling onto power lines in Ohio. It
affected 50 million people in eight states and Canada, took days to restore, and caused a
financial loss in the United States estimated to be between $4 billion and $10 billion [36]. People
lost water supplies, transportation systems, and communications systems (including Internet
and cell phones). Factories shut down, and looting occurred. As extreme weather events
becomes more common, so do the threats to our national electricity supply.
But we have not seen anything close to the kinds of scenarios outlined by Yoran, Ergma,
Toffler, and others. Terrorists did not use cyberattack against the World Trade Center; they
used hijacked aircraft. And the attack of 9/11 did not lead to the long-term collapse of the U.S.
economy; we would have to wait for the impacts of years of bad mortgages for a financial
meltdown. Nor did the cyberattacks on Estonia approximate what happened on 9/11 as Yoran
has claimed, and certainly not nuclear warfare as Ergma has claimed. In fact, a scientist at the
NATO Co-operative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, which was established in Tallinn,
Estonia in response to the 2007 cyberattacks, has written that the immediate impacts of those
attacks were minimal or nonexistent, and that the no critical services were permanently
affected (Ottis, 2010: 72).
Nonetheless, many cybersecurity proponents continue to offer up cyber-doom scenarios that
not only make analogies to weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and the terrorist attacks of
9/11, but also hold out economic, social, and even civilizational collapse as possible impacts of
cyberattacks. A report from the Hoover Institution has warned of so-called eWMDs (Kelly &
Almann, 2008); the FBI has warned that a cyberattack could have the same impact as a
wellplaced bomb (FOXNews.com, 2010b); and official DoD documents refer to weapons of
mass disruption, implying that cyberattacks might have impacts comparable to the use of
WMD (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff 2004, 2006). John Arquilla, one of the first to
theorize cyberwar in the 1990s (Arquilla & Ronfeldt, 1997), has spoken of a grave and growing
capacity for crippling our tech-dependent society and has said that a cyber 9/11 is a matter
of if, not when (Arquilla, 2009). Mike McConnell, who has claimed that we are already in an
ongoing cyberwar (McConnell, 2010), has even predicted that a cyberattack could surpass the
impacts of 9/11 by an order of magnitude (The Atlantic, 2010). Finally, some have even
compared the impacts of prospective cyberattacks to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that killed
roughly a quarter million people and caused widespread physical destruction in five countries
(Meyer, 2010); suggested that cyberattack could pose an existential threat to the United
States (FOXNews.com 2010b); and offered the possibility that cyberattack threatens not only
the continued existence of the United States, but all of global civilization (Adhikari, 2009).
In response, critics have noted that not only has the story about who threatens what, how,
and with what potential impact shifted over time, but it has done so with very little evidence
provided to support the claims being made (Bendrath, 2001, 2003; Walt, 2010). Others have
noted that the cyber-doom scenarios offered for years by cybersecurity proponents have yet
to come to pass and question whether they are possible at all (Stohl, 2007). Some have also
questioned the motives of cybersecurity proponents. Various think tanks, security firms,
defense contractors, and business leaders who trumpet the problem of cyber attacks are
portrayed as selfinterested ideologues who promote unrealistic portrayals of cyber-threats
(Greenwald, 2010).
It will only be loss of the afternoon data can function without NOAA satellites
Yehle, E&E Reporter, 2014
(Emily, Greenwire, July 14, NOAA: With Satellite on death watch, forecasts face uncertain
future, online: http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060002814)
The possibility of a "gap" in weather data is well-known on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers have chided
NOAA for years over delays in its satellite programs, with Senate appropriators once threatening
to hand over all construction responsibility to NASA.
Today, the polar satellite program -- and its geostationary counterpart -- are among the few
budget requests that Congress plans to fully fund in fiscal 2015. Lawmakers from both parties
don't want to risk the weather forecasts their constituents rely upon.
Indeed, the loss of so much data sounds catastrophic. But is it?
" All is not lost if we lose all of them ," said Jeff Masters, founder of the website Weather
Underground. "But we're not going to lose all of them. We're going to lose a few."
NOAA now relies on a hodgepodge of polar satellites in an attempt to ensure data for every
region of the Earth is no more than six hours old.
Only one "operational," or primary, satellite comes from a NOAA program; it covers the
afternoon orbit. Two satellites built through Department of Defense programs and controlled
by NOAA cover the early morning and midafternoon orbits, and NOAA also gathers data from a
European satellite. A few of NOAA's older satellites provide additional data.
Experts say NOAA's primary satellite is the one most likely to fail, leaving the agency without a
fully functioning polar satellite for an afternoon snapshot. But it would still have data from
other polar-orbiting satellites -- just not as much and not as frequently. A loss could limit
measurements that allow hurricane paths to be predicted earlier and would especially affect
forecasts in northern regions, dealing a particular blow to Alaska.
2AC: Spending DA
Plan doesnt require new spending
Jewett et al., the first director of NOAA's Ocean Acidification Program, 2014
(Elizabeth Jewett, Mary Boatman (BOEM), Phillip Taylor and Priscilla Viana (formerly with NSF),
Todd Capson (formerly with DOS), Katherine Nixon (formerly with U.S. Navy) and Fredric
Lipshultz (formerly with NASA), Strategic Plan for Federal Research and Monitoring of Ocean
Acidification, Online:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/iwgoa_strategic_plan_march_2014.pdf)
Early establishment of an Ocean Acidification Data Management Office under the National
Program Office would be highly desirable in order to oversee the many complex connections
between institutions and data systems that will be contributing to the Program (NRC 2010a;
refer to Box 12 for examples). If ocean acidification data management functions must be
embedded within an existing federally supported data management activity due to resource
limitations, then it remains essential to employ staff members dedicated to a curatorship role
for the ocean acidification data collection. To this end, the National Oceanographic Data Center
has been designated to serve as the long-term archive for NOAA-funded ocean acidification
data. Where possible, the National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) will also serve the
broader ocean acidification community through partnerships and leveraging of resources. The
model for integration, in order to respect the independence of data systems developed by the
contributors, must be a system-of-systems outlook, such as has been articulated in numerous
plans, including the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Data Management and
Communications (IOOS-DMAC) Plan (Hankin and the DMAC Steering Committee 2005), NOAAs
Global Earth Observation-Integrated Data Environment (GEO-IDE) plan (U.S. Department of
Commerce 2006), the European Unions SeaDataNet (Schaap 2009), the Global Earth
Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) framework (Group on Earth Observations [GEO] 2005)
and the emerging Federal data architecture being developed within the SOST ad hoc Biodiversity
Working Group (Fornwall 2012). The Ocean Acidification Data Management Office must also
manage a shared data analysis environment to support community data synthesis and
integration activities and a framework for model intercomparison.
reefs may erode faster than they can be rebuilt. Coral reefs are an ecosystem all unto
dependent of the reef for life will be affected by the reefs
demise. Recent findings suggest that the calcium carbonate cementation process that serves to bind the reef framework together may
be eroded by thermal stress, diseases, storms, and rising sea level. In CO2 enriched waters around the Galapagos Islands, reef
themselves, as many species of fish and aquatic life
structures were completely eroded to rubble and sand in less than 10 years following the 198283 El Nio event. This
acidic sea water is affecting fish and shellfish and their food sources as well. Commercially important fish and shellfish have
extremely high mortality rates when exposed to CO2 enriched waters. King crab, squid, silver
seabream, sea urchins and mussels, all show ill effects and an inability to maintain their internal acid balance because
of the increased acid of the sea water. It puts these commercially valuable marine species in jeopardy for
extinction.
economic impact from this happening is one that could resonate throughout the entire commercial
United States is the third largest consumer of seafood in the world
with total consumer spending for fish and shellfish at around $70 billion per year. Coastal and marine commercial fishing
generates over $35 billion per year and employ almost 70,000 people. Dr. Richard Feely, PHD,
Senior Scientist at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in his testimony
before Congress, Healthy coral reefs are the foundation of many viable fisheries, as well as the source
of jobs and businesses related to tourism and recreation. Increased ocean acidification may directly or indirectly influence the fish
stocks because of large-scale changes in the local ecosystem dynamics. adding, It may also cause the dissolution of the newly
discovered deepwater corals in the West Coast and Alaskan Aleutian Island regions, where many
commercially important fish species in this region depend on this particular habitat for their
survival. In the Florida Keys alone, coral reefs attract more than $1.2 billion in tourism
annually. In Hawaii, reef-related tourism and fishing generate $360 million per year, and their
overall worth has been estimated at close to $10 billion. In addition to sustaining commercial fisheries, tourism, and
The potential
recreation, coral reefs also provide vital protection to coastal areas that are vulnerable to storm surges and tsunamis.
Counterplans
domoic acid. Moreover, they are contradicted by the facts: there is no denying that it is
primarily plankton that brought down the atmospheric concentration of CO2 by about 50% to
75% from what it was around 250,000 years ago and that it did so without destroying marine
life. So the growth of plankton in the sea is nothing new or that hasn't been occurring for
millions of years. Therefore, dusting the surface of the oceans with iron oxides today would
amount to nothing more than restoring a natural process in which, for millions of years, winds
from the deserts spread iron oxides over the oceans causing plankton to grow. All we would
need to do is to proceed cautiously by means of selecting the right kinds of plankton and where
and to what extent to fertilize their growth. Are there other uncertainties? Yes, of course, but
inaction is no longer an option at a time when we are already speeding into unknown territory
where the only certainty is that life as we know it might become unsustainable within 50 to 100
years. Let us not forget that about 9% of CO2 emissions are from humans as they breathe and
about 75% as they burn fossil fuels. Yet, CO2 emissions from power plants represent at most
about 5% of the total CO2 emissions. However, it is only this 5% of CO2emissions from power
plants that we are talking about limiting by means of sequestration - an exercise in futility ! It's
time to wake up to the facts: attempting to limit CO2 emissions is a senseless waste of time
and money given that we are past the point when cutting our CO2 emissions by 5% could
make a dent - we cannot LIMIT the other 95% as its emission is so widespread that it is
impossible to capture. But we sure can and absolutely must EXTRACT the excess CO2 from the
atmosphere. There is no other conceivable way to slow, let alone, reverse global warming.
Links to politics
Arnold, NPR, 2014
(June 3, Chris, GOP Demonizes Once Favored Cap-And-Trade Policy, online:
http://www.npr.org/2014/06/03/318414868/gop-demonizes-once-favored-cap-and-tradepolicy)
Republicans say the Environmental Protection Agency will kill jobs and raise electricity prices
with new carbon emissions limits. But their tactics in fighting the proposed rules are targeting a
policy that their own party championed during GOP presidencies.
Republicans are touting a letter signed by 41 GOP senators asking President Obama to
withdraw what they call his "cap-and-trade rule."
Cap and trade is one of the policy tools that would be allowed under the EPA proposal for states
to achieve the new emissions standards.
In recent years, the term "cap and trade" has become a dirty word for many Republicans. But
Republicans used to be the big advocates of cap and trade. It was originally a conservative idea
because it's a market-based approach to environmental regulation.
For those who make money off of the market of trading carbon allowances, it has made for a
difficult year. But the bigger problem is that the cost of buying allowances is so low that they
are cheap for any company that wants to continue polluting, defeating the purpose of the
system. When the price of carbon allowances was high, companies scrambled to invest in
renewable energy like wind and solar. That is no longer the case now that prices are low.
that it is widely accepted that UK power generators are likely to make substantial windfall
profits from the EU ETS amounting to 500 million a year or more.
These profits were mainly enjoyed by energy companies based on how they account for the
costs of the EU ETS. The costs that are indirectly passed on to consumers through an increase
in wholesale energy prices do not reflect what carbon credits actually cost, but rather what
the companies assume they could cost. This leaves considerable scope for overestimates.
The same fundamental problems of over-allocated permits and windfall profits for polluters are
occurring in the second phase of the EU scheme, which runs from 2008-2012. Research by
market analysts Point Carbon, for example, has calculated that the likely profits made by power
companies in phase two could be between 23 billion and 71 billion (and between 6 and 15
billion for UK power producers alone).
They put the cart before the horse were WAY behind in science like the plan
and currently cant determine the best adaptation strategy
Ruhl, Matthews & Hawkins Professor of Property at The Florida State University
College of Law, 2010
(J.B., CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND THE STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION OF
ENVIRONMENTAL LAW, <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1517374)
The period during which adaptation policy was in the doghouse, however, stunted progress on
forging its theory, design, and implementation. The accruing adaptation deficit19 has grown
large, putting us far behind the European Union, Australia, and many other nations in this
respect.20 In short, the United States . . . lacks sufficient investment in the sciences required
for moving beyond climate science to define impacts and vulnerabilities.21 Domestic law and
policy are in no better shape. To be sure, legal scholarship on climate change policy is sharply on
the rise.22 Most of it, however, focuses on the configuration of instruments and institutions to
accomplish mitigation, as in the debates over the efficacy of carbon taxes versus cap-andtrade23 and the advantages of federal top-down versus local bottom-up initiatives.24 Although
discussion of climate change adaptation, especially more recently, is often included in those
scholarly contributions,25 it is seldom included as a significant focus and almost never with
concrete domestic policy proposals offered.26 Indeed, the vast majority of legal scholarship
touching on climate change adaptation explores not domestic preparedness, but rather the
scope of responsibility developed nations have to assist the adaptation efforts of the least
developed nations most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.27 The latter is an important
policy concern, but the former deserves urgent and focused attention as well.
Links to politics
Boncour, Head of the International Dialogue on Migration, 2009
(Philippe, The Moment Of Truth Adapting to Climate Change, Head, International Dialogue on
Migration, IOM, 12-11-2009, http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/media/featurestories/featureArticleEU/cache/offonce?entryId=26621)
Therefore, the international community's response must also adapt to this new paradigm. It
may be easier to raise funds to respond to natural disasters because of the emergency nature of
such events and because of the media coverage and the political credit such assistance can
bring. However, it is much more difficult to convince donors to invest in tackling the long-term
effects of climate change and to support adaptation as the effects of such investments are not
evident for many years. They are less "saleable" to the public. This is particularly true in the
current difficult economic climate, where voters are more concerned about keeping their jobs
and maintaining their standard of living.
2AC: RPS CP
RPS wont solve warming targets too low
Grinzo, Energy Researcher at the University of Rochester, 2010
(Lou, A national RPS for the US?, September 28,
http://theenergycollective.com/lougrinzo/44270/national-rps-us)
My big objection is to the 15% RPS for years 2021 through 2039. Thats too low for 2021,
considering the urgency of decarbonizing our electricity infrastructure, and absurdly low for
2039. If the US electricity generation is still 85% non-renewable, and therefore carbon emitting
at the same percentage or very nearly so, then we are in immense trouble. If we have any shot
whatsoever of hitting an 80% reduction from 1990 levels by 2050, then we need much quicker
change than this bill would trigger. And keep in mind that our transportation energy
consumption will begin to shift from oil to the electricity sector literally in a matter of months as
the first EVs and PHEVs hit the mass market. By the years 2021 to 2039 well see a very sizable
portion of our transportation fueled by electrons, which will make cleaning up the electricity
sector even more critical.[2]
Links to politics
Johnson, RES advocate with a background in energy financial and policy issues,
2010
(Taylor, Is the U.S. Wind Industry Losing Ground?,
http://www.windpowerengineering.com/category/renewable-portfolio-standard/)
One key factor in the U.S. decline is the failure of congress to provide any form of certainty to
the market. Youve no doubt heard that the pleas for a national Renewable Energy Standard
(RES) have fallen on deaf ears as senators and representatives shy away from legislation that
may negatively impact their re-election chances in November. Several pieces of pro-renewable
energy legislation have been proposed and brought before Congress, but in the spirit of
partisan behavior our beloved congress has failed to produce any results. As such, the tax
credits and cash grants that have led to a booming renewable energy economy over the last
four years are coming to an end, and no legislation is in place to support the industry afterward.
On top of this (and a bit of a side note) the Bush Tax Cuts are coming to an end as 2010
concludes. Although this is not directly related to renewable energy, increasing tax rates also
increases the level of investment uncertainty in our country. So why is Congress having such a
hard time passing a bill that will both improve our economic future and decrease our
dependence on foreign energy? In a word: Money. It all boils down to money, cold hard cash.
Businesses and their lobbyists are working away on Capitol Hill, whispering in the ears of our
representatives, planting the idea that if the federal government supports renewable energy
development than energy prices will jump to a level that is too high for businesses to maintain
their global competitive advantage. Unfortunately this is just not the case. In fact, the U.S. has
by far the lowest energy costs in the world. Our national average (commercial) price is under
$0.05/kWh whereas our nearest competitor, China, spends roughly $0.11/kWh. Though, even if
we were to put that point out of the way, there is still enough evidence to refute these anti-
renewable energy lobbyists in just one point. The implementation of a national 15% Renewable
Energy Standard will only increase our energy costs by a fraction of one cent per kilowatt-hour.
2AC: Geo-Engineering CP
(Note the aff may result in some geo-engineering)
Geo-engineering strategies focus on warming but ignore acidification
continued existence of the negative feedback loop cancels the effect
Somero, Chair of the Committee on the Review of the National Ocean
Acidification, et al. 2013 (GEORGE N. SOMERO, Stanford University, California, JAMES P.
BARRY, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California, ANDREW G. DICKSON, Scripps
Institution of Oceanography, California, JEAN-PIERRE GATTUSO, CNRS-Pierre and Marie Curie
University, France, MARION GEHLEN, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de LEnvironnement,
France, JOAN (JOANIE) A. KLEYPAS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, CHRIS
LANGDON, University of Miami, RSMAS, Florida CINDY LEE, Stony Brook University, New York
EDWARD L. MILES, University of Washington, JAMES SANCHIRICO, University of California, Davis,
REVIEW OF THE FEDERAL OCEAN ACIDIFICATION RESEARCH AND MONITORING PLAN, National
academies press, Accessed 7/20/14)
Furthermore, the social sciences could provide valuable information on not only the economic,
ecological, and social benefits and costs of ocean acidification, but also the risks of different
mitigation techniques. There are multiple geo-engineering methods being considered, but
presently they do not offer an adaptive response to ocean acidification (Matthews et al.,
2009). That is, geo-engineering strategies commonly focus only on reducing global warming
and fail to take acidification into account. The only mitigation techniques discussed in this
section of the Strategic Plan are reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and policies that
improve the overall health of ecosystems by reducing other stressors (e.g., reduction in fishing
catch, habitat restoration, and improvement in water quality).
2AC: International CP
The plan increases effectiveness of international solutions creating a national
office results in a cohesive U.S. contribution to global research a unilateral
move by another country cant solve
Newton, et. Al, 2012
(JA Newton University of Washington, RA Freely - NOAA, EB Jewett -NOAA, D Gledhill -NOAA,
Toward a Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network,
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/GOA_ON/GOA-ON_Interim_Report_July2013.pdf
In order to coordinate international efforts to document the status and progress of ocean
acidification in open-ocean and coastal environments, and to understand its drivers and
impacts on marine ecosystems, it will be necessary to develop a coordinated multidisciplinary
multinational approach for observations and modeling that will be fundamental to
establishing a successful monitoring and research strategy for ocean acidification. This will
facilitate the development of our capability to assess present-day and predict future
biogeochemistry, and climate change feedbacks and the responses of marine biota, ecosystem
processes, and socioeconomic consequences. Required research elements include regional and
global networks of observations collected in concert with process studies, manipulative
experiments, field studies, and modeling. Global and regional observation networks will
provide the necessary data required to firmly establish impacts attributed to ocean
acidification.
fluorescence data from the MODIS and MERIS sensors have the potential of providing better
estimates of bloom extent (Hu et al., 2005; Zhao et al., 2010).
B. Coral
Robinson, Institute for Oceanographic Studies, 2010
(Ian, Discovering the Ocean from Space [electronic resource] The unique applications of satellite
oceanography / by Ian S. Robinson., BA and MA Mechanical Sciences, Cambridge University, PhD
Engineering Magneto-hydrodynamics, University of Warwick, 1973, Higher and Senior Scientific
Officer, Institute of Oceanographic Sciences, Bidston, Lecturer, senior lecturer and reader,
University of Southampton Department of Oceanography, Head of Department of
Oceanography, Professor, University of Southampton School of Ocean and Earth Science,
Professorial Fellow, Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton)
However, there is one aspect of reef biology in which the wider overview provided by satellite
oceanography techniques has become essential , and important enough to require this
subsection to itself. This is the issue of coral bleaching, and the role that satellite monitoring
of sea surface temperature (SST) plays in identifying regions where reefs are at risk of
bleaching. Corals are underwater animals that attach themselves to stony substrates. The order
of corals known as stony corals, or scleractinians, are found as large colonies of individual coral
polyps, each of which produces limestone deposits. Over the years these deposits have created
the large reef systems found in shallow tropical and temperate seas, which provide a unique
habitat for rich and complex ecosystems (see, e.g., pp. 117141 in Barnes and Hughes, 1999).
Corals thrive by hosting within their cells symbiotic algae called Zooxanthellae, which provide
the coral with oxygen and organic compounds resulting from photosynthesis, while themselves
obtaining from the coral carbon dioxide and other chemical compounds needed for
photosynthesis. The algae give coral reefs their rich coloration and the symbiotic relationship is
essential for the health of the whole reef ecosystem. Coral bleaching is the name given to the
situation when corals are subject to physiological stress and respond by ejecting the
zooxanthellae. The departure of the algae is visually evident because corals lose the pigments
that give them their yellow or brown coloration. In this case the white limestone substrate that
the corals have deposited shows through the translucent cells of the polyps which then appear
pale or even white. If the stress is quickly removed the algae return within a few weeks and the
corals recover, but if the stress is prolonged for many weeks the corals will die and continue to
appear stark white. The loss of live corals eventually causes damage to the whole reef
ecosystem. Consequently coral-bleaching events pose a serious threat that is taken seriously by
marine environmental managers.
Critiques
2AC: Capitalism
Science reveals ecological destruction that exposes the contradictions of
capitalism
Oreskes 2014
(Scaling Up Our Vision Author(s): Naomi Oreskes Source: Isis, Vol. 105, No. 2 (June 2014), pp.
379-391 Published by: The University of Chicago Press on behalf of The History of Science
Society Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/676574)
Environmental historians have taken issue with the term environment in part because, when
one views the world from the perspective of human societies, it seems clear that there is no
environment separate and apart from the people in it. But when one considers the deep
ocean, the argument becomes murkier, as until extremely recently almost no human spent any
time at all in the deep ocean and most human rubbish that was dumped was dropped in
shallow, near-coastal seas. Today technology has changed that situation, yet the total number
of humans who have spent even a modicum of time in the deep ocean remains very small.
What has changed is that human investigations have led to a radical revision in scientific views
of the ocean, while human activities have substantially altered the ocean itself. Environmental
historians also struggle with the notion of natural agency, in part because their work
demonstrates that the construct of an environment separate and apart from humans is
difficult to sustain, as is the idea of a culturally independent nonhuman nature. Perhaps this is
one reason environmental historians have not paid more attention to the oceanit has tended
to defy these conclusions. Our ideas of the ocean are quite evidently culturally constructed,
but the ocean itself has seemed to stand apart. For centuries, it seemed to be distinct from
those aspects of geography that men and women had so evidently transformed. It was scarcely
affected by those who sailed across it; the ocean transformed them far more than they
transformed it. But this seems no longer to be true. By the middle of the twentieth century, it
was clear that earlier views of the deep-ocean environment were incorrect. Scientists came to
understand that the deep ocean does sustain life, it does sustain currents, and while it is vast
and has been used for disposal of the diverse products of industrial life, including various
forms of nuclear waste, garbage, and wreckage, its capacity to absorb those wastes is not
infinite. By the end of the century, scientists also concluded that human activities were
changing the ocean, not merely in the shallow regions close to where people lived, but in its
entirety. As we move into the twenty-first century, and both atmospheric and oceanic warming
have become measurable (with the former characterized by scientists as unequivocal), it has
become clear that the oceans capacity to serve as a sink for the waste heat of industrial
civilization is not infinite, as at least the surface layers of the ocean are, indeed, warming. This
shift in understandingfrom the ocean as deep, dark, vast, and mostly inaccessible and not
(except to mariners and fishermen) terribly important to the ocean as a vast abode of life, both
familiar and strange, and a place on which all life, both marine and terrestrial, dependsis one
of the most important cultural and scientific shifts of the twentieth century. It is a shift from
the ocean as a world not only without us but without much of anything to a world of profound
significance and import.16 It is a shift from a void to a plenum. It is a shift from something
viewed as static to something now seen as highly dynamic, a driving force in diverse physical,
biological, and social systems. This is one of the important reasons to pay attention to the
ocean, for it provides us with one of the clearest, and perhaps most alarming, consequences of
human global environmental reach. For not only is the ocean measurably warming in response
to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it is also acidifying as it responds to
and equilibrates with those greenhouse gases. As far as scientific evidence is able to indicate,
this is affecting life at the very base of the food chain. Surely a shift of this magnitude and
import is worthy of serious and sustained study. It is the job of scientists to study the thing in
itself, but it is our job, as historians of science, to understand the scientific activities that
describe and document it, as well as the cultural responses to scientists conclusions. This is
what is suggested by Dipesh Chakrabarty in his recent essay The Climate of History: Four
Theses, in which he turns his attention to global climate change. Chakrabarty suggests that we
are at a turning point in history as a discipline. Regardless of how we have viewed the matter in
the past, it is now clear that we can no longer sustain a demarcation between natural history
and human history. What scientists have said about climate change challenges not only the
ideas about the human that usually sustain the discipline of history but also the analytic
strategies that postcolonial and postimperial historians have deployed in the last two decades
in response to the postwar scenario of decolonization and globalization. He suggests that our
historical training has left most of us ill equipped to understand these changes, acknowledging
even that his own extensive readings in theories of globalization, Marxist analysis of capital,
sub-altern studies and post-colonial criticism had not prepared him for making sense of this
planetary conjuncture within which humanities finds itself today.17 While most
environmental historians would probably argue that every aspect of human life has always
depended, to some degree or another, on the natural world in which we live, and that humans
have always interacted with their natural environments in ways that altered it, two things stand
out as new. The first is that every aspect of the natural world is touched by human fingerprints.
While one may argue about the reality versus the idea(l) of untrammeled nature, something
existed before the genus Homo evolved, and the evidence is strong that for quite a while most
of that something was not very much altered by the presence of that new genus. This has now
changed. The second is that historians recognize this fact in a way that they have not until now
generally done. It becomes increasingly clear that the development of human societies and
cultures can no longer be properly analyzed without attention to the rapidly shifting character
of global, regional, and local environments. Whether or not the environment was ever an
effectively static (or very slowly changing) backdrop, it surely is no longer that. The physical and
biological environment in and with which we live is now changing on human timescales. Perhaps
ironically, Marxist analysis (which has not played a very major role in the thinking of most
historians of science post Boris Hessen) now comes back to the fore, as we think about the
problem of climate change, the relationship of scientific communities to sources of political and
economic power, and the capacity of scientists to speak truth to that power.18 I am referring
here to the essential fact that climate change (indeedall environmental change, to the extent
that such changes may be viewed as harmful, hurtful, or damaging) is a market failure.19 As
Erik Conway and I argued in Merchants of Doubt, what climate change denial had in common
with the other areas of science that faced organized doubt-mongering campaigns was that it
highlighted a failure of capitalism: its failure to account adequately for external (or social)
costs.20 It is one of the ironies of recent history that it was not economists, doing economic
research, who identified these market failures but, rather, scientists, doing science. We have
argued that this explains why scientists not otherwise politically engaged found themselves
facing harsh scrutiny, corrosive skepticism, and even Congressional subpoenas and direct
political attack. It also explains how and why new doubt-mongering campaigns continue to
emerge, denying the scientific evidence of the harms of endocrine-disrupting chemicals, for
example, and suppressing possible evidence of harms related to cellular telephones, gun
violence, shale gas development, and the excessive use of road salt.21 Scientists have found
themselves unprepared and ill equipped to deal with these challenges for many reasons,
including their training and personalities, but above all because they have been trained to
believe something that is clearly no longer true in the modern world, if it ever was. It is the
Baconian conceit that knowledge is power. Power is power, and those who have it may use
scientific knowledge if they see advantage in doing sowhich, as Michael Reidy and Helen
Rozwadowski note in their contribution to this Focus section, and many historians have stressed,
imperial powers often did. But they may equally ignore, deny, or attempt to discredit that
knowledge if they do not. Knowledge alone, without power, means little and does less.
Scientists have assumed that those in power generally welcome what scientists have to offer.
Recent history defies this generalization. If scientific knowledge produces information that is
not merely inconvenient but strikes at the heart of prevailing economic systemsas the
evidence of anthropogenic climate change doesthen the best scientists can hope for is that it
is simply ignored. But this is not what has happened of late. One credible estimate suggests that
the fossil fuel industry has spent as much as $1.5 billion challenging the scientific evidence of
global climate change, and lobbying against political action based on it, in the United States
alone. If this number is correct, it suggests that the amount of money spent on challenging
climate science competes with the amount of money spent in creating it.22 One factor that
contributes to the vulnerability of scientific knowledgeand the ease with which it is often
deconstructedis its uncertainty. Climate science is rife with uncertaintiesthat is one of the
few denialist claims that is surely truebut there is more to be said about the matter than
simply agreeing that climate science is uncertain, for all science is ultimately uncertain. The issue
for us is the character and nature of scientific uncertainty and the ways in which scientists try to
stabilize knowledge in the face of persistent uncertainty, topics that fall well within our brief as
historians of science. One of the main sources of epistemic uncertainty in climate science
involves the ocean. The response of the oceans is one of the most important variables
determining the rate of observable climate change and sea-level rise, and this has also been one
of its most scientifically uncertain aspects. Data and materials on heat and material transfer into
the deep ocean have been scant, and even now they remain insufficient to answer many
important scientific questions with confidence.
carbon emissions continue unchecked. At this level, the effects of ocean acidification will
account for a small fraction (likely less than 1%) of the estimated total cost of future climate
change; however, it is important to better quantify these ecological and economic impacts,
both to inform marine resource management planning and adaptive measures, and to
contribute to a more accurate global damage function for climate change and carbon tax
policies. OCEAN ACIDIFICATIONA GLOBAL THREAT TO THE WORLDS OCEANS The acidification
of the worlds oceans is a direct consequence of higher concentrations of CO2 in the Earths
atmosphere. By absorbing CO2 from the air, the oceans have taken up between 30% and 50% of
post-industrial anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al. 2004; IPCC 2007), which has reduced
average ocean surface pH from the preindustrial level of 8.2 to 8.1 (Caldeira and Wickett 2003).
Over the next 50 years, rising atmospheric CO2 is expected to decrease average ocean surface
pH to 7.9 or 7.8, and to decrease the saturation states of calcite and aragonite by about 25%
(Guinotte and Fabry, this edition). One of the known consequences of ocean acidification is a
slowing or reversal of the growth of the calcium carbonate shells of marine plants and animals,
including commercially valuable shellfish and crustaceans and corals. Over time, marine
ecosystems will respond to the combined pressures of changes in temperature, pH, and other
environmental factors (including fishing effort and anthropogenic pollution inputs) with shifts in
the geographic range of species and with other adaptations. This process may include the partial
or complete loss of some commercially valuable species. In this paper, I consider the potential
consequences of ocean acidification, and efforts to mitigate these consequences, from a global
economic perspective. While we can project the physical consequences of ocean acidification,
such as changes in seawater chemistry, with some confidence, anticipating the biological and
economic effects is more difficult, because biological organisms (including people) will adapt to
changes in ocean chemistry in ways that we may not yet know about. Ocean acidification is a
direct consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and there is no obvious way to
prevent ocean acidification on a large scale, other than to reduce atmospheric CO2. While ocean
acidification and its effects are a rationale for policies to limit CO2 in the atmosphere, they are
best considered as part of the larger set of effects that follow from climate change. GLOBAL
ECONOMIC VALUE OF FISHERIES AND CORAL REEFS The economic consequences of ocean
acidification will depend on the combined adaptations of marine ecosystems and human
resource management to the changes outlined above. Although these consequences are
difficult to predict, it is possible to say something about the general scale of economic value
generated by fisheries and coral reefs, to suggest the order of magnitude of economic value
that might be affected by acidification, and to place these values in the broader context of the
economics of climate change. The estimates of economic value I will discuss in the following
sections are order of magnitude approximations; however, economic losses from ocean
acidification, like many other effects of climate change, may well fall disproportionately on
relatively poor and under-resourced people; for example, residents of developing countries
who depend on reef fisheries or wild shellfish for subsistence (Figure 1). It is a general feature
of climate change that the populations most severely affected are often those who have
contributed the least, historically, to the problem of carbon emissions. This is an argument for
international aid from developed industrial nations to poor countries likely to be hard hit by
climate change effects.