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National Purpose

• Syndicate defined National purpose as equality,


freedom and fraternity

• Article 2A of the constitution helps in defining


national purpose

1
National Interests
• Vital National Interests
– Sovereignty

– Territorial and Geographical Integrity

– Internal Security

– Economic Wellbeing of Citizens

– Important National Interests

– Peripheral National Interests


2
National Interests
– Rule of Law
– Democracy
– Armed Forces to Guard our Geographical Boundaries
– Adequate Nuclear Deterrence is Required
– Ensure Internal Stability
– Ensure Equal Opportunities to Everyone Irrespective of
Caste, Creed or Gender
– Build Infrastructures and Develop Industrial and
Agricultural Base
– Food, Water and Energy Security
3
Aims and Objectives

Strengthening the National Defence and

boosting National Economy to ensure equal

opportunities to all its Citizens in order to

achieve the objectives of Foreign Policy.

4
Economy of Pakistan
• Pakistan's economy has traditionally suffered
from inefficiencies.

• Export promotion policies at the cost of


domestic commerce, excessive fiscal leniency
for services sector, low priority to industrial
development and government's inability to
document the national economy are some of
the main failings in the country's economic
regime.
5
Economy of Pakistan

The political economy of Pakistan has


remained succumbed due to over-whelming
influence of vested and cartel interests,
twisting and bending laws for gains of few
groups, not only market distortions have
emerged, but also state efforts for equitable
redistribution of income have suffered.
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Economy of Pakistan
The average growth rate since independence
onwards is barely 5.2 percent. The current GDP is
US$ 170 billion, per capita income is about US$
1050, literacy rate is about 55 percent, population
growth rate is about 1.6 percent and urbanization
growth rate is over 3 percent. Pakistan has been
suffering from double deficit. Save two or three
years in its life, Pakistan has always experienced
trade deficit. The current trade deficit is over US$
20 billion.

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09, ADB Report 2008 7
Economy of Pakistan
• Pakistan is an agro-based country.
• Over 80 percent of Pakistan's exports are still
directly or indirectly dependent upon
agriculture.
• Pakistan has a narrow industrial base with
mostly conventional processes and low
productivity rate.
• Pakistan is under external debt of about US$
45 billion and internal debt of about US$ 65
billion
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09, World Bank Report 2008 8
Economy of Pakistan
• Over 40 percent population is estimated living
below poverty line but the official figure is less
than 25 per cent.

• Pakistan has not been able to reap the fruits of


globalization and is still standing at the
crossroads of multiple challenges of WTO

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09, UNDP Report 2008  9
Economy of Pakistan
• The overall foreign direct investment during the
first ten months has declined by 42.7 percent and
stood at US$ 2.2 billion as against US $ 3.9
billion in the comparable period of last year.

• Contrary to foreign direct investment, portfolio


investment, on the other, has shown a net outflow
of US$ 451.5 million as against net flow of US$
98.9 million during the same period of last year.
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09, UNDP Report 2008  10
Economy of Pakistan
• Per capita real income has risen from US$
1042 last year to US$ 1046 in 2008-09,
thereby showing marginal increase of 0.3
percent.

• Foreign remittances have also shown an


increase of 20 percent compared to the
corresponding period of last year.

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09 11
Economy of Pakistan
• Boosting and modernizing the textile sector,
new textile policy tends to enhance textiles by
US$ 25 billion in the next 5 years.

• As a whole, the on-going war on terror, global


financial and economic recession, and
structural weaknesses are badly hitting the
economy of Pakistan and there is a need to
address these issues.

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09 12
Economy of Pakistan
• If fully realized and exploited, Pakistan’s
economic potentials could convert the country
into prosperity.

• Pakistan faces the possibility of a prolonged


slowdown in economic activity of no more than
two percent a year.

• This will mean practically no increase in income


per head of the population.

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Economy of Pakistan
Owing to a number of domestic factors such as
the chronic energy shortage and deteriorating law
and order situation, and external factors,
principally the global recession, the overall
economic performance appears somewhat dismal
as the economic growth slow down to 2 percent
against 4.1 percent growth to last fiscal year and
this year’s target of 4.5 percent.
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Economy of Pakistan

Macro and micro-economic crises, trade shocks,

global recession, and domestic security challenges

were the main hurdles in the way to economic

growth during the current financial year.

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Economy of Pakistan
• The major issue being faced by Pakistan is
energy security.

• The project of Gas Pipeline from Iran is


getting delayed and exploitation of Thar Coal
is also not in view in foreseeable future.

• Pakistan has not been successful to enter into


civil nuclear agreement with US on the pattern
of Indo-US agreement 123.
Source: Ministry of Water and Power, Govt. of Pakistan 2009 16
Economy of Pakistan
• Without adequate energy resources, the dream
of industrialization and economic growth
cannot be materialized.

• Pakistan must accord top priority to ensure the


energy security, to trampoline the economic
growth, development and prosperity.

Source: Ministry of Water and Power, Govt. of Pakistan 2009 17
Economy of Pakistan

National wellbeing is direct linked with energy


security, national security and economic security.
For our economic prosperity Pakistan has to
improve incentives for investment in energy
sectors including petroleum exploration with a
target of 6.5% growth indigenous gas supply.

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Economy of Pakistan
• Conservation energy is a huge resource of
adding to energy supply.

• It aims at brining the existing energy into


efficient use by eliminating wastefully internal
use, minimizing loses and theft and reducing
the energy intensity.

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Economy of Pakistan
• By abroad estimate it could be added up to
40% to our energy consumption within the
present energy supply capacity.

• Some developed economies are considering


severe regulation to purse energy conservation:
make it immoral, illegal and punitively
expensive to use energy wastefully

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Internal Security Dynamics
• Acute internal security problems
– challenge to the writ of the State by the militant 
groups in several parts of the country
– In Baluchistan separatist elements are out to 
destroy government institutions ,property and  
commit genocide through bomb blasts
– Pakistan cannot re‐start its journey towards 
development unless writ of the state is restored 
and national integration is ensured

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Internal Security Dynamics
– Hardliner group of Islamic extremists including 
foreign elements operating in Pakhtoon Khaw and 
FATA, destroying fabric of society
– Talibanisation is spreading at galloping pace 
across Pakistan 
– More than 10000 Madrassas. The number is 
around 40,000 if mosques with Madrassa 
activities are included 
– Over 2 million students inclined to adopt the 
course of Jihad

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Internal Security Dynamics
– Hostile international forces are adamant on 
treating Pakistan as an epicenter of terrorism in 
the world 
– Pakistan must make efforts to regulate and 
mainstream Madrassa 
– There is a need for establishment of effective 
Madrassa Regulatory Authority at the Divisional 
level headed by Commissioner 

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Internal Security Dynamics
• The main tasks of the authority would be to 
carryout comprehensive survey of the 
Madrassa and mosques for the purpose of 
mandatory registration to mainstream the 
Madrassa 
• The Madrassa should be funded out of the 
education budget in proportion to the number 
of students enrolled, provided they meet the 
minimum prescribed standard

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Internal Security Dynamics
• Strict legal action shall be taken against 
Madrassa involved in anti state activity. Illegal 
use of loudspeaker and FM Radios shall not be 
allowed at any cost 
• Ulema of all sects be engaged through forums 
like Mutahida Ulema Board for restoring 
peace

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Internal Security Dynamics
• internal security crisis in urban areas, especially big cities
• the crime rate has generally increased
• attributable to the degradation of cultural values, absence of 
income generation opportunities and weaknesses of the law 
enforcing agencies.
• Pakistani society, especially urbanities is alleged to have 
weaponized over the passage of time. Holding and carrying of 
illegal arms is not an uncommon phenomenon.
• The rate of crime like murder, robbery, target killing is also not 
declining despite aggressive police reforms and reinforcement and 
skill development of law enforcing agencies. 
• Sixty years of Pakistan’s history compels us to learn lessons from 
the past. Law and order itself is not the primary issue as it always 
arises due to certain public policy failure on which there is, in 
general, lack of faith and consensus.

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Internal Security Dynamics

• Chalk out a clear roadmap for integration of FATA into national 
main stream 
• Change in laws and judicial reforms to deal with Militancy/ 
Terrorism
• Ensure national orientation towards non ‐ state militant actors 
• Consistent political and economic follow up of military operations
• Militarily Pakistan should be in effective control of FATA with 
enhanced influence, particularly in South Waziristan Agency / North 
Waziristan Agency
• Calibration of  policy and strategy with the changing regional 
environment, particularly with reference to Afghanistan
• We should be in a state of balance politically, economically, socially 
and militarily at the time when US executes its exit strategy

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NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS

• Sovereignty under threat – drone attacks
• Military & Intelligence Agencies accused of links 
with Taliban / al‐Qaeda
• Nuclear Assets under threat
• Taliban & foreign Jihadis presence
• Disputes with India ‐ Kashmir, water issues
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Contd…
• Madaris & Jihad ‐ foreign funding
• Afghan refugees
• Economy – Poverty, unemployment, etc
• Militancy, terrorism 
• Violence & law and order
• Growing US – India relations 
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PAKISTAN’S CONSTRAINTS
• USA & NATO in neighborhood, War on Terror
• Dwarfed by China & India – military & 
economic giants, competing regional interests
• Economic constraints
• Weak institutions – political focus
• Waning writ of state

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SCENARIO
PAKISTAN
• In its 62nd Year of life
• Plagued with
¾ Intolerance
¾ Militancy
¾ Sectarianism
¾ Terrorism
¾ Corruption
¾ Ethnic Strife
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CONSEQUENCES
THREATS

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REGIONAL DYNAMICS
INDIA
• Strained relations; blame game
• Volatile Eastern border
• Two major wars – 1965, 1971
• Pakistan dismembered
• Tense past from 1947 to Kargil to Mumbai 2008

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REGIONAL DYNAMICS
INDIA
• Nuclear explosions – 1998
• Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, Water issue
• Cross border terrorism
• Largest democracy, Second most populous
• Bilateral trade & SAFTA
• Cultural invasion
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REGIONAL DYNAMICS
AFGHANISTAN
• History, Culture & Geography
• Russian Invasion / Afghan Refugees
• Taliban, 9 /11, al-Qaeda
• US, NATO, ISAF
• Landlocked country – transit & bilateral trade
• Relations with Karzai regime
• Indian Involvement
• Drug / Weapons / Gun Running / Smuggling
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REGIONAL DYNAMICS
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
• Good relations during Shah’s era
• RCD
• Islamic Revolution
• Increasing Socio-economic influence in region
• ECO – ECOTA
• Sectarianism
• Gas pipeline to Pakistan – American reservations
• Nuclear dream – Uranium enrichment facility
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REGIONAL DYNAMICS
CHINA
• Historic links – trade route, new rail-road link
• Diplomatic support to Pakistan
• Defence Cooperation
• Economic cooperation
• Investment – Gwadar, Ormara ports, Saindak
Project
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GLOBAL DYNAMICS
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

• Roller coaster relationship


9 Three engagements

9 Sanctions

• Post 9/11 scenario

• War on terror/Impact on Pakistan

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GLOBAL DYNAMICS

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

• Economic Relations

¾ Largest importer of Pakistani goods

¾ Largest investor

¾ Economic Assistance to Pakistan

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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
¾ FATA Development Plan
¾ ROZs
¾New Non ‐Military aid  of US$1.5 Billion over 10 
years
• Strategic Dialogue
• Defense Cooperation
• USA’s concerns
¾Pakistan’s nuclear assets
¾Alleged links of Pakistan's intelligence agencies 
with militants
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GLOBAL DYNAMICS
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• Pak‐Iran relations
• Pakistan’s concerns
¾Sovereignty issue (attacks in Pakistan’s territory)
¾Post exit scenario
¾Increasing terrorism in Pakistan
¾India‐USA relations

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Foreign Policy

• Article 40 of the Constitution of Pakistan

• Quaid’s View

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Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics

• Precarious internal situation

• Unstable economy

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Strategic Analysis

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Policy Formulation Assumptions
• Domestic
– Weak political govt.
– Role of non stake actors
– Fragile economy
– Electronic Media
– Lack of institutional support
– Role of Army
• Regional
– Relation with India
– Unstable Afghanistan
– Iran ambition
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• Global
– Unipolar
– Economic factors determining foreign
Policy
– Image of the country
– Role international financial institution
– Nuclear proliferation

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