Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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National Interests
• Vital National Interests
– Sovereignty
– Internal Security
4
Economy of Pakistan
• Pakistan's economy has traditionally suffered
from inefficiencies.
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09, ADB Report 2008 7
Economy of Pakistan
• Pakistan is an agro-based country.
• Over 80 percent of Pakistan's exports are still
directly or indirectly dependent upon
agriculture.
• Pakistan has a narrow industrial base with
mostly conventional processes and low
productivity rate.
• Pakistan is under external debt of about US$
45 billion and internal debt of about US$ 65
billion
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09, World Bank Report 2008 8
Economy of Pakistan
• Over 40 percent population is estimated living
below poverty line but the official figure is less
than 25 per cent.
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09, UNDP Report 2008 9
Economy of Pakistan
• The overall foreign direct investment during the
first ten months has declined by 42.7 percent and
stood at US$ 2.2 billion as against US $ 3.9
billion in the comparable period of last year.
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09 11
Economy of Pakistan
• Boosting and modernizing the textile sector,
new textile policy tends to enhance textiles by
US$ 25 billion in the next 5 years.
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2008‐09 12
Economy of Pakistan
• If fully realized and exploited, Pakistan’s
economic potentials could convert the country
into prosperity.
13
Economy of Pakistan
Owing to a number of domestic factors such as
the chronic energy shortage and deteriorating law
and order situation, and external factors,
principally the global recession, the overall
economic performance appears somewhat dismal
as the economic growth slow down to 2 percent
against 4.1 percent growth to last fiscal year and
this year’s target of 4.5 percent.
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Economy of Pakistan
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Economy of Pakistan
• The major issue being faced by Pakistan is
energy security.
Source: Ministry of Water and Power, Govt. of Pakistan 2009 17
Economy of Pakistan
18
Economy of Pakistan
• Conservation energy is a huge resource of
adding to energy supply.
19
Economy of Pakistan
• By abroad estimate it could be added up to
40% to our energy consumption within the
present energy supply capacity.
20
Internal Security Dynamics
• Acute internal security problems
– challenge to the writ of the State by the militant
groups in several parts of the country
– In Baluchistan separatist elements are out to
destroy government institutions ,property and
commit genocide through bomb blasts
– Pakistan cannot re‐start its journey towards
development unless writ of the state is restored
and national integration is ensured
21
Internal Security Dynamics
– Hardliner group of Islamic extremists including
foreign elements operating in Pakhtoon Khaw and
FATA, destroying fabric of society
– Talibanisation is spreading at galloping pace
across Pakistan
– More than 10000 Madrassas. The number is
around 40,000 if mosques with Madrassa
activities are included
– Over 2 million students inclined to adopt the
course of Jihad
22
Internal Security Dynamics
– Hostile international forces are adamant on
treating Pakistan as an epicenter of terrorism in
the world
– Pakistan must make efforts to regulate and
mainstream Madrassa
– There is a need for establishment of effective
Madrassa Regulatory Authority at the Divisional
level headed by Commissioner
23
Internal Security Dynamics
• The main tasks of the authority would be to
carryout comprehensive survey of the
Madrassa and mosques for the purpose of
mandatory registration to mainstream the
Madrassa
• The Madrassa should be funded out of the
education budget in proportion to the number
of students enrolled, provided they meet the
minimum prescribed standard
24
Internal Security Dynamics
• Strict legal action shall be taken against
Madrassa involved in anti state activity. Illegal
use of loudspeaker and FM Radios shall not be
allowed at any cost
• Ulema of all sects be engaged through forums
like Mutahida Ulema Board for restoring
peace
25
Internal Security Dynamics
• internal security crisis in urban areas, especially big cities
• the crime rate has generally increased
• attributable to the degradation of cultural values, absence of
income generation opportunities and weaknesses of the law
enforcing agencies.
• Pakistani society, especially urbanities is alleged to have
weaponized over the passage of time. Holding and carrying of
illegal arms is not an uncommon phenomenon.
• The rate of crime like murder, robbery, target killing is also not
declining despite aggressive police reforms and reinforcement and
skill development of law enforcing agencies.
• Sixty years of Pakistan’s history compels us to learn lessons from
the past. Law and order itself is not the primary issue as it always
arises due to certain public policy failure on which there is, in
general, lack of faith and consensus.
26
Internal Security Dynamics
• Chalk out a clear roadmap for integration of FATA into national
main stream
• Change in laws and judicial reforms to deal with Militancy/
Terrorism
• Ensure national orientation towards non ‐ state militant actors
• Consistent political and economic follow up of military operations
• Militarily Pakistan should be in effective control of FATA with
enhanced influence, particularly in South Waziristan Agency / North
Waziristan Agency
• Calibration of policy and strategy with the changing regional
environment, particularly with reference to Afghanistan
• We should be in a state of balance politically, economically, socially
and militarily at the time when US executes its exit strategy
27
NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS
• Sovereignty under threat – drone attacks
• Military & Intelligence Agencies accused of links
with Taliban / al‐Qaeda
• Nuclear Assets under threat
• Taliban & foreign Jihadis presence
• Disputes with India ‐ Kashmir, water issues
28
Contd…
• Madaris & Jihad ‐ foreign funding
• Afghan refugees
• Economy – Poverty, unemployment, etc
• Militancy, terrorism
• Violence & law and order
• Growing US – India relations
29
PAKISTAN’S CONSTRAINTS
• USA & NATO in neighborhood, War on Terror
• Dwarfed by China & India – military &
economic giants, competing regional interests
• Economic constraints
• Weak institutions – political focus
• Waning writ of state
30
SCENARIO
PAKISTAN
• In its 62nd Year of life
• Plagued with
¾ Intolerance
¾ Militancy
¾ Sectarianism
¾ Terrorism
¾ Corruption
¾ Ethnic Strife
31 31
CONSEQUENCES
THREATS
32 32
REGIONAL DYNAMICS
INDIA
• Strained relations; blame game
• Volatile Eastern border
• Two major wars – 1965, 1971
• Pakistan dismembered
• Tense past from 1947 to Kargil to Mumbai 2008
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REGIONAL DYNAMICS
INDIA
• Nuclear explosions – 1998
• Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, Water issue
• Cross border terrorism
• Largest democracy, Second most populous
• Bilateral trade & SAFTA
• Cultural invasion
34
REGIONAL DYNAMICS
AFGHANISTAN
• History, Culture & Geography
• Russian Invasion / Afghan Refugees
• Taliban, 9 /11, al-Qaeda
• US, NATO, ISAF
• Landlocked country – transit & bilateral trade
• Relations with Karzai regime
• Indian Involvement
• Drug / Weapons / Gun Running / Smuggling
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REGIONAL DYNAMICS
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
• Good relations during Shah’s era
• RCD
• Islamic Revolution
• Increasing Socio-economic influence in region
• ECO – ECOTA
• Sectarianism
• Gas pipeline to Pakistan – American reservations
• Nuclear dream – Uranium enrichment facility
36
REGIONAL DYNAMICS
CHINA
• Historic links – trade route, new rail-road link
• Diplomatic support to Pakistan
• Defence Cooperation
• Economic cooperation
• Investment – Gwadar, Ormara ports, Saindak
Project
37
GLOBAL DYNAMICS
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
9 Sanctions
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GLOBAL DYNAMICS
• Economic Relations
¾ Largest investor
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
¾ FATA Development Plan
¾ ROZs
¾New Non ‐Military aid of US$1.5 Billion over 10
years
• Strategic Dialogue
• Defense Cooperation
• USA’s concerns
¾Pakistan’s nuclear assets
¾Alleged links of Pakistan's intelligence agencies
with militants
40
GLOBAL DYNAMICS
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• Pak‐Iran relations
• Pakistan’s concerns
¾Sovereignty issue (attacks in Pakistan’s territory)
¾Post exit scenario
¾Increasing terrorism in Pakistan
¾India‐USA relations
41
Foreign Policy
• Quaid’s View
42
Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics
• Unstable economy
43
Strategic Analysis
44
Policy Formulation Assumptions
• Domestic
– Weak political govt.
– Role of non stake actors
– Fragile economy
– Electronic Media
– Lack of institutional support
– Role of Army
• Regional
– Relation with India
– Unstable Afghanistan
– Iran ambition
45
• Global
– Unipolar
– Economic factors determining foreign
Policy
– Image of the country
– Role international financial institution
– Nuclear proliferation
46