Anexo I 3

PLAN DE EXPANSIN 2011-2025
PROYECCIONES DE DEMANDA
ANEXO I- 3
CUADROS SOPORTE Y DETALLE DE CLCULOS
TITULO
No.
1
INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO A LOS TRABAJOS DE AMPLICACION DEL

CANAL
INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO AL TURISMO RESIDENCIAL
EDIFICIOS EN CONSTRUCCIN
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA: IMPACTO POBLACIONAL POR AMPLIACION DEL CANAL +

TURISMO RESIDENCIAL
INFLACIN, 1970-2006
PRONSTICO DEL PIB 2009, TENDENCIAL HISTRICO- (Millones de B/. 1996)
PIB ESTIMADO AL 2010, SEGN ESCENARIO, DIVISION Y ACTIVIDAD ECONOMICA

(Millones de B/. 1996)
ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES DEL PRODUCTO INTERNO

BRUTO AOS 2010-2024
9
EMPALME DE BASES 1996
=> 1982
PIB 2010-2024
10
ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO

DE LA ACTIVIDAD DE MANUFACTURA AOS 2010-2024
11
ESCENARIO BASE
MODERADO
ESCENARIO ALTO
OPTIMISTA
12
13
ESCENARIO BAJO
PESIMISTA
14
RESUMEN DE TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB, SEGN ESCENARIOS
15
ANLISIS DEL FACTOR DE CARGA Y PROYECCIN LINEAL
16
PREMISAS DE PROYECCIN DE PRDIDAS DE ENERGA
17
PRECIOS EE - HISTORICOS
18
EVOLUCIN DE PRECIOS DE LA ELECTRICIDAD
19
PROYECCION REAL DEL PRETOT
20
DEMANDA DE LA PROVINCIA DE BOCAS DEL TORO (CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN)

Aos 2009 -2024
21
DEMANDA CONSOLIDADA DEL SEGMENTO BLOQUE (CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN)
22
RESUMEN DE PRONOSTICOS DE DEMANDA
23
PARTICIPACION POR SECTOR - ESCENARIO MEDIO
24
PARTICIPACION POR SECTOR - ESCENARIO ALTO
25
PARTICIPACION POR SECTOR - ESCENARIO BAJO
26
DEMANDA MAXIMA DE GENERACION , POR PARTICIPANTE CONSUMIDOR Y POR

BARRA. 2010-2024 (MW)
CUADRO No. 1
INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO A LOS TRABAJOS DE AMPLICACION DEL CANAL
CASO: ESCENARIO MODERADO
SUPUESTO: 3 INMIGRANTE INDIRECTO POR EMPLEADO EXTRANJERO
EMPLEADOS ADICIONALES X AMPLIACION
TOTAL
NACIONALES
EXTRANJEROS INDIRECTOS
3.00
2007
746
746
2008
2,237
2,115
122
366
2009
4,405
4,257
148
444
2010
5,630
5,338
292
876
2011
2,929
2,674
255
765
2012
1,559
1,371
188
564
2013
1,324
1,116
208
624
2014
667
429
238
714
2008 - 2009
3,321
3,186
135
405
2010 - 2014
2,422
2,186
236
709
2 Familiares y 1 de otra
actividad conexa
CASO ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA

SUPUESTO: 5 INMIGRANTES INDIRECTOS POR EMPLEADO EXTRANJERO
EMPLEADOS ADICIONALES X AMPLIACION
TOTAL
NACIONALES
EXTRANJEROS INDIRECTOS
5.00
2007
746
746
2008
2,237
2,115
122
610
2009
4,405
4,257
148
740
2010
5,630
5,338
292
1,460
2011
2,929
2,674
255
1,275
2012
1,559
1,371
188
940
2013
1,324
1,116
208
1,040
2014
667
429
238
1,190
2008 - 2009
3,321
3,186
135
675
2010 - 2014
2,422
2,186
236
1,181
2 Familiares y 3 de otra
actividad conexa
256838157.xls.ms_office
1-Inmigracin x Ampliacin
INMIGRANTES
TOTALES
488
592
1,168
1,020
752
832
952
540
945
INMIGRANTES
TOTALES
732
888
1,752
1,530
1,128
1,248
1,428
810
1,417
1/9/2015
CUADRO No. 2
INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO AL TURISMO RESIDENCIAL
CASO DE IMPACTO MODERADO
SUPUESTO: OCUPACIN DE EDIFICIOS POR EXTRANJEROS AUMENTADO
TOTAL
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Ocupacin
23,947
35,921
47,895
59,869
71,842
83,816
95,790
107,764
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
Dueo
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Acompaantes
1.00
7,982
11,974
15,965
19,956
23,947
27,939
31,930
35,921
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
7,982
11,974
15,965
19,956
23,947
27,939
31,930
35,921
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
10.00%
INMIGRANTES
TOTALES
15,965
23,947
31,930
39,912
47,895
55,877
63,860
71,842
79,825
79,825
79,825
79,825
79,825
CASO DE IMPACTO OPTIMISTA

SUPUESTO: OCUPACIN DE EDIFICIOS POR EXTRANJEROS AUMENTADO
TOTAL
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2y3-InmigrTurismo Residenci
55,877
125,724
195,571
265,418
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
279,387
Ocupacin
20%
45%
70%
95%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Dueo
Acompaantes
3.00
7,982
17,961
27,939
37,917
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
39,912
23,947
53,882
83,816
113,751
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
119,737
25.00%
INMIGRANTES
TOTALES
31,930
71,842
111,755
151,667
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
159,650
1/9/2015
CUADRO No. 3
EDIFICIOS EN CONSTRUCCIN
GRUPO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 - 10
11 - 25
26 -176
Chiriqu
1
2
3
4
5
Cocl
Bocas del
Toro
EDIFICIO
# PISOS
Olloqui de Espaa
El Palacio de la
BahaThe Trump Organization, y el Trump Ocean Club
Grupo K de Panam
International Hotel
And Tower
Ice Tower
Grupo Mall
Los Faros de Panam1
Los Faros de Panam2
Los Faros de Panam3
4
ms segn Informe del MEF
15
edificios en preventa a dic/2006
150
edificios de menor envergadura
Sin informacin cuantitativa, estimado asumiendo
Boquete
1000
residencias
Potrerillos
por lugar
Las Lajas
Volcn
Cerro Punta
1000
A febrero/2006 se conoce de 500 a 700 casas en
construccin
#
APARTAMENTOS
RESIDENCIALES
97
333
65
223
Apartamentos
por Piso
3.43
104
84
70
70
82
50
30
1,716
7.66
5.55
1,819
4,160
24,961
5,000
1,000
700
39,912
RESIDENCIAS TOTALES
metros altura
Altura media
Ms alto
2y3-InmigrTurismo Residenci
290
346
1/9/2015
CUADRO No. 4
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA: IMPACTO POBLACIONAL POR AMPLIACION DEL CANAL + TURISMO RESIDENCIAL
POBRUR
POBRUX
POBRUY
POBTOT
POBURB
POBURX
POBURY
Poblacin rural
Poblacin rural masculinaPoblacin rural femenina
Poblacin total
Poblacin urbana
Poblacin urbana masculina

Poblacin urbana femenina
Miles de habitantes
Miles de habitantes
Miles de habitantes
Miles de habitantes
Miles de habitantes
Frmula
CELADE 1950-1999 & CGR

CELADE
2000 1950-1999 & CGR 2000
Frmula
Frmula
CELADE 1950-1999 & CGR

CELADE
20001950-1999 & CGR 2000
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
R^2
Miles de habitantes
Miles de habitantes
789.5
419.8
369.7
1506.3
716.8
349.1
367.7
807.6
429.5
378.1
1547.3
739.7
360.0
379.6
826.2
439.4
386.8
1589.5
763.3
371.3
391.9
845.2
449.6
395.6
1632.8
787.6
383.0
404.6
864.7
460.0
404.7
1677.4
812.7
395.0
417.7
884.6
470.6
414.0
1723.2
838.6
407.4
431.2
902.9
480.3
422.5
1766.2
863.3
419.2
444.2
921.5
490.3
431.2
1810.3
888.8
431.3
457.5
940.6
500.5
440.1
1855.6
915.0
443.8
471.2
960.1
510.8
449.2
1902.0
942.0
456.7
485.3
979.9
521.4
458.5
1949.7
969.8
469.9
499.9
992.8
528.2
464.6
1991.1
998.4
483.9
514.5
1005.8
535.0
470.8
2033.6
1027.8
498.3
529.5
1019.0
541.9
477.1
2077.1
1058.1
513.1
545.0
1032.4
548.9
483.5
2121.7
1089.3
528.4
560.9
1046.0
556.0
490.0
2167.4
1121.4
544.1
577.3
1058.3
562.4
495.9
2211.3
1153.0
559.5
593.5
1070.7
568.9
501.8
2256.2
1185.5
575.4
610.2
1083.3
575.4
507.8
2302.2
1219.0
591.7
627.3
1096.0
582.1
513.9
2349.3
1253.3
608.5
644.9
1108.9
588.8
520.1
2397.5
1288.7
625.7
663.0
1119.9
594.5
525.4
2442.2
1322.3
642.2
680.1
1131.1
600.3
530.8
2487.9
1356.8
659.0
697.8
1142.4
606.1
536.3
2534.5
1392.2
676.3
715.9
1153.8
611.9
541.8
2582.2
1428.5
694.1
734.4
1165.3
617.9
547.4
2631.0
1465.8
712.3
753.5
1154.8
611.7
543.1
2687.8
1533.0
746.5
786.4
1144.4
605.6
538.7
2747.7
1603.3
782.4
820.9
1134.1
599.6
534.5
2810.9
1676.8
820.1
856.8
1123.9
593.7
530.2
2877.7
1753.8
859.5
894.3
1113.8
587.8
526.0
2948.0
1834.2
900.8
933.4
1126.4
593.6
532.8
3004.0
1877.6
923.0
954.6
1139.2
599.6
539.6
3060.1
1920.9
945.1
975.8
1152.0
605.5
546.5
3116.3
1964.2
967.3
996.9
1164.8
611.4
553.4
3172.4
2007.6
989.5
1018.1
1177.2
617.0
560.2
3228.2
2051.0
1011.7
1039.3
1189.8
622.7
567.1
3281.5
2091.7
1032.4
1059.3
36%
1.07%
1.65%
64%
1.98%
0.921
0.907
0.994
0.993
0.934
0.995
Pronstico de Poblacin Rural y Urbana, con base en la correlacin de dichas poblaciones, respecto a la evolucin de poblacin total
RURAL
NACIONALES AMPLIACION
F:
CELADE&Contr
alora
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
1,249
1,260
1,278
1,297
1,316
1,335
1,347
1,359
1,369
1,379
1,390
1,401
1,411
1,421
1,431
31.93
34%
Tasa anual acumulativa
2007-2010
1.27%
2011-2015
1.00%
2016-2021
0.74%
2007-2021
0.98%
4-Poblacin-Optimista
1,249
1,260
1,272
1,282
1,293
1,304
1,315
1,327
1,337
1,347
1,358
1,369
1,380
1,389
1,399
0.89%
0.83%
0.75%
0.81%
TURIS.RESID
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
URBANO
20%
6.4
14.4
22.4
30.3
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
Nacionales
AMPLIACION TURIS.RESID
F:
CELADE&Contr
alora
100%
Remanente
20%
3,336
3,392
3,480
3,572
3,664
3,757
3,819
3,874
3,922
3,973
4,024
4,075
4,128
4,175
4,222.3
159.94
2,087
2,131
2,201
2,275
2,348
2,422
2,471
2,515
2,553
2,593
2,634
2,675
2,716
2,754
2,791
128.01
66%
2,087
2,131
2,175
2,216
2,257
2,300
2,342
2,386
2,425
2,465
2,506
2,547
2,588
2,626
2,663
2.31%
1.72%
1.23%
1.70%
2.92%
2.11%
1.48%
2.10%
2.02%
1.81%
1.56%
1.76%
0.73
0.89
1.75
1.53
1.13
1.25
1.43
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
80%
25.5
57.5
89.4
121.3
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
127.7
TASAS
OTIMISTAS
1.65%
1.67%
2.60%
2.65%
2.58%
2.53%
1.65%
1.44%
1.25%
1.28%
1.29%
1.29%
1.29%
1.14%
1.14%
1/9/2015
PROYECCION DE POBLACION TOTAL POR AO CALENDARIO,
VARIACION DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION TOTAL

POR AO CALENDARIO,
SEGN CUATRO HIPOTESIS DE CRECIMIENTO
SEGN CUATRO HIPOTESIS DE CRECIMIENTO
PERIODO 2010 2010- 20
PERIODO 2010 2010- 20
HIPOTESIS
CONSTANTE
AO
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TASA
Nota.
HIPOTESIS ALTA
HIPOTESIS MEDIA
RECOMENDADA
HIPOTESIS BAJA
3,416,857
3,476,769
3,537,001
3,597,531
3,658,350
3,719,492
3,780,990
3,842,879
3,905,202
3,967,938
4,031,019
4,094,830
4,157,955
4,221,696
4,285,646
4,349,878
4,414,465
4,479,480
3,411,824
3,470,579
3,529,465
3,588,472
3,647,614
3,706,905
3,766,358
3,825,988
3,885,883
3,946,035
4,006,310
4,066,574
4,126,696
4,186,678
4,246,610
4,306,486
4,366,300
4,426,047
3,395,346
3,450,349
3,504,483
3,557,687
3,610,165
3,662,009
3,713,312
3,764,166
3,814,672
3,864,769
3,914,304
3,963,127
4,011,084
4,058,181
4,104,519
4,150,091
4,194,889
4,238,907
3,334,025
3,377,061
3,418,879
3,459,293
3,498,320
3,536,241
3,573,335
3,609,880
3,646,069
3,681,715
3,716,531
3,750,228
3,782,520
3,813,488
3,843,324
3,871,905
3,899,108
3,924,809
1.587%
1.521%
1.276%
0.924%
Extracto del proyeccion de Poblacion Total, Cuadro No. 19

ESTIMACIONES Y PROYECCIONES DE LA POBLACION TOTAL,
DEL PAIS, POR SEXO Y EDAD, AOS 1950 - 2050
INEC, BOLETIN No. 7
TASA(2010-2014)
TASA(2015-2020)
TASA(2021-2025)
1.682%
1.589%
1.493%
1.637%
1.525%
1.400%
1.458%
1.279%
1.095%
1.111%
0.939%
0.722%
AO
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TASA
HIPOTESIS
CONSTANTE
HIPOTESIS
ALTA
HIPOTESIS
MEDIA
RECOMENDA
DA
1.753%
1.732%
1.711%
1.691%
1.671%
1.653%
1.637%
1.622%
1.606%
1.590%
1.583%
1.542%
1.533%
1.515%
1.499%
1.485%
1.473%
1.722%
2.293%
1.672%
1.648%
1.625%
1.604%
1.583%
1.565%
1.548%
1.527%
1.504%
1.478%
1.454%
1.431%
1.410%
1.389%
1.368%
1.620%
1.569%
1.518%
1.475%
1.436%
1.401%
1.370%
1.342%
1.313%
1.282%
1.247%
1.210%
1.174%
1.142%
1.110%
1.079%
1.049%
-1.077%
-3.383%
-2.646%
HIPOTESIS
BAJA
1.291%
-0.912%
1.182%
1.128%
1.084%
1.049%
1.023%
1.002%
0.978%
0.946%
0.907%
0.861%
0.819%
0.782%
0.744%
0.703%
0.659%
#NUM!
CUADRO No. 5
INFLACIN, 1970-2006
IPCPAN
AOS
1987 = 100
Frmula
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 (P)
1990-2007
1990-2000
1997-2009
2002-2009
2005-2009
ARCHIVO: 256838157.xls.ms_office
HOJA: 5-Inflacin
INFPAN
IPC anual de Panam (1987 =

Inflacin de Panam
100)
42.2
43.0
45.4
48.5
56.9
60.0
62.4
65.4
68.3
73.8
84.3
90.6
94.5
96.6
98.2
99.1
99.1
100.0
100.5
100.6
101.4
102.7
104.5
105.0
106.4
107.4
108.8
110.1
110.8
112.4
114.1
114.4
115.8
117.7
119.4
122.8
125.8
134.0
145.7
149.3
154.3
%
COPE 1971-2002
2.0
5.6
6.9
17.3
5.5
4.0
4.8
4.4
8.0
14.2
7.5
4.3
2.2
1.7
0.9
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.1
0.8
1.3
1.8
0.5
1.3
0.9
1.3
1.2
0.6
1.4
1.5
0.3
1.2
1.6
1.4
2.9
2.5
6.5
8.7
2.5
3.4
2.1%
1.2%
2.6%
3.7%
4.6%
4.6
1/9/2015
PRONOSTICO DEL PIB TENDENCIAL HISTORICO

(Millones de balboas de 1996)
CUADRO No.
PRONSTICO DEL PIB 2008, TENDENCIAL HISTRICO- (Millones de B/. 1996)

ESTIMACIONES 2010
GRAN DIVISIN ECONMICA
2001
2002
2003
BASE HISTRICA
2004
2005
2006
Revision
2007
Preliminar
2008
2009
E1
E2
E3
2009
PROMEDIO
DE
CAMBIO DE ltimos 3
aos2006-08
PROMEDIO DE
CAMBIO DE ltimos 2
aos2007-08
TENDENCIAL 20012009
1. Agricultura, silvicultura y caza

2. Pesca
3. Explotacin de canteras
Subtotal Sector Primario
4. Industria Manufacturera
5. Electricidad, gas y agua
6. Construccin
7. Transporte, almacenamiento y comunicaciones
Subtotal Sector Secundario y de Infraestructura
8. Comercio al por mayor y al por menor
9. Hoteles y Restaurantes
10. Intermediacin Financiera
11. Actividades Inmobiliarias, empresariales y de alquiler
12. Enseanza Privada
Menos: Servicio de intermediacin financiera
Subtotal Sector Terciario (comercial y financiero)
13. Actividades de servicio sociales y de salud privada
14. Otras actividades comunitarias, sociales y personales
15. Productores de servicios gubernamentales
Construccin
Actividades Inmobiliarias, empresariales y de alquiler
Hogares privados con servicio domstico
16. Productores de servicios domsticos
Subtotal Sector Terciario (oficial y personal)
Ms: Derechos de importancia e ITBM
Ms: ITBM que graba las compras de los hogares
Ms: Otros impuestos a los productores
Menos: Subvenciones a los productos
Subtotal Impuestos y transferencias
Producto Interno Bruto Real
588.3
261.0
75.6
924.9
1,026.3
357.0
394.1
1,767.5
3544.9
1,703.5
259.2
1,090.4
690.5
82.4
-369.0
3457
111.9
368.9
1,128.9
25.8
1,103.9
84.3
1,214.0
2823.7
208.9
139.7
397.1
-60.0
685.7
11,436.2
TASA DE CRECIMIENTO ANUAL

FUENTE:
565.2
312.3
89.3
966.8
999.4
381.5
365.4
1,803.2
3549.5
1,668.1
277.4
1,011.9
717.5
84.8
-288.2
3471.5
118.7
388.4
1,171.3
24.6
1,150.0
93.1
1,267.7
2946.1
211.5
136.7
460.8
-51.8
757.2
11,691.1
581.1
377.8
120.9
1079.8
965.4
387.0
491.0
1,999.0
3,842.4
1,686.8
306.2
939.4
753.9
88.7
-300.2
3474.8
122.9
394.8
1,188.0
25.7
1,201.7
95.1
1,322.5
3028.2
198.2
139.2
465.6
-45.4
757.6
12,182.8
592.9
379.0
136.0
1107.9
985.5
410.6
561.6
2,296.3
4254.0
1,881.9
347.6
887.0
834.9
92.8
-262.5
3781.7
129.5
410.3
1,217.0
27.0
1,268.2
102.7
1,397.9
3154.7
207.9
170.7
500.0
-77.7
800.9
13,099.2
621.6
375.4
136.1
1133.1
1,026.9
433.4
566.8
2,567.9
4595.0
2,047.4
386.1
1,032.4
899.0
96.9
-289.0
4172.8
134.3
426.8
1,208.3
27.8
1,358.4
104.5
1,490.7
3260.1
228.7
191.8
539.5
-79.8
880.2
14,041.2
670.6
368.5
159.5
1198.6
1,066.7
447.6
671.2
2,920.9
5106.4
2,274.0
433.2
1,187.1
947.4
105.9
-374.3
4573.3
137.8
448.4
1231.8
32.8
1453.9
111.3
1598.0
3416
285.3
254.5
562.0
-157.5
944.3
15,238.6
688.8
356.2
197.8
1242.8
1,126.7
484.3
819.3
3,417.5
5847.8
2,517.7
494.9
1,414.7
1,039.8
113.4
-379.8
5200.7
155.6
513.1
1272.7
37.9
1568.0
112.6
1718.5
3659.9
349.4
302.4
639.5
-158.1
1,133.2
17,084.4
719.5
412.2
259.0
1390.7
1,170.9
502.9
1,075.0
3,945.8
6694.6
2,695.2
535.9
1,614.6
1,076.7
121.8
-403.9
5640.3
163.9
548.3
1321.0
45.3
1718.9
114.7
1878.9
3912.1
365.0
330.3
650.0
-170.0
1,175.3
18,812.9
653.3
397.0
270.4
1320.7
1,165.7
540.8
1,124.7
4,206.3
7037.5
2,737.4
549.7
1,604.6
1,045.7
134.7
-430.4
5641.7
168.8
571.9
1353.3
45.6
1874.3
113.6
2033.5
4127.5
346.2
356.6
672.2
-124.0
1,251.0
19,378.3
699.0
412.6
258.2
1,369.8
1,157.7
527.1
1,062.2
4,079.0
6,825.9
2,752.7
558.9
1,539.1
1,101.7
127.9
-401.7
5,678.6
167.3
556.7
1,334.5
43.9
1,791.3
118.6
1,953.8
4,012.3
359.4
348.6
681.5
-163.8
1,225.7
19,112.4
2.23%
4.21%
7.52%
7.19%
8.53%
12.11%
10.12%
3.01%
-1.37%
-1.5%
2.0%
0.7%
2.1%
1.5%
1.0%
-3.0%
4.2%
3.4%
4.0%
2.6%
4.3%
647.6
407.0
322.4
1,377
1,200.7
576.0
1,335.9
4,750.0
7,863
2,912.0
595.1
1,774.2
1,080.7
145.9
-450.9
6,057
180.6
620.2
1,396.4
50.9
2,039.9
114.4
2205.2
4402.4
369.3
399.0
713.5
-114.5
1,367.3
21,066
8.71%
-0.9%
2.5%
19.2%
4.3%
3.0%
6.5%
18.8%
12.9%
11.7%
6.4%
8.3%
10.6%
3.3%
8.3%
4.8%
7.4%
7.0%
8.4%
3.2%
11.6%
8.8%
0.7%
8.4%
6.7%
1.2%
20.8%
9.8%
-32.6%
9.3%
636.2
419.1
316.2
1,372
1,185.7
571.5
1,317.8
4,666.6
7,741
2,854.3
579.3
1,708.9
1,048.7
146.8
-458.2
5,880
175.8
603.8
1,395.5
50.0
2,049.2
114.1
2213.3
4,388
344.6
387.2
689.2
-109.8
1,311.2
20,692
6.78%
Direccin de Estadisticas y Censo, Panam en Cifras 2002-06
ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022 CCB
256838157.xls.ms_office/ 6-PIB 2010, tres metodologas
PRONOSTICO DEL PIB TENDENCIAL HISTORICO

(Millones de balboas de 1996)
010
E4
E5
AJUSTADO
estructuras base E2
AJUSTADO estructuras
base E2
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO
2007
2008
2009
Promedio
-2.6%
5.6%
16.9%
3.8%
1.7%
5.7%
17.2%
10.9%
10.0%
4.3%
5.4%
6.5%
0.3%
9.0%
6.5%
4.2%
4.2%
5.6%
3.1%
9.7%
9.3%
0.4%
8.8%
6.3%
-0.5%
8.6%
2.5%
-11.4%
4.8%
636.2
-2.6%
419.1
5.6%
316.2
16.9%
1,372
3.8%
1,191.1
2.2% 0.0046
571.5
5.7%
1,317.8
17.2%
4,483.2
6.6% -0.0393
7,563
7.5%
2,854.3
4.3%
579.3
5.4%
1,845.6
15.0%
1.08
1,048.7
0.3%
146.8
9.0%
-458.2
6.5%
6,017
6.6%
175.8
4.2%
597.7
4.5% 0.99
1,465.3
8.3% 1.05
50.0
9.7%
2,049.2
9.3%
114.1
0.4%
2,213.3
8.8%
4,452
7.9%
344.6
-0.5%
387.2
8.6%
689.2
2.5%
-109.8 -11.4%
1,311.2
4.8%
20,715.0
6.90%
4.90%
2.00%
625.2
411.8
310.7
1,348
1,170.4
561.6
1,294.9
4,405.3
7,432
2,804.8
569.3
1,813.6
1,030.5
144.3
450.2
5,912
172.8
587.4
1,439.8
49.1
2,013.6
112.1
2,174.9
4,375
338.6
380.5
677.2
-107.9
1,288.4
20,355.4
20,355.4
-3.9%
19.7%
18.1%
4.5%
-2.6%
6.9%
-7.3%
2.0%
0.1%
-2.1%
7.0%
-7.2%
3.9%
2.9%
-21.9%
0.4%
6.1%
5.3%
3.8%
-4.7%
4.2%
10.4%
4.4%
4.3%
1.2%
-2.1%
16.0%
-13.7%
10.4%
2.2%
2.8%
21.0%
35.4%
11.7%
-3.4%
1.4%
34.4%
10.9%
8.3%
1.1%
10.4%
-7.2%
5.1%
4.6%
4.2%
0.1%
3.5%
1.6%
1.4%
4.5%
4.5%
2.1%
4.3%
2.8%
-6.3%
1.8%
1.0%
-12.4%
0.1%
4.2%
2.0%
0.3%
12.5%
2.6%
2.1%
6.1%
14.4%
14.9%
10.7%
11.6%
13.5%
-5.6%
10.7%
4.6%
-12.6%
8.8%
5.4%
3.9%
2.4%
5.1%
5.5%
8.0%
5.7%
4.2%
4.9%
22.6%
7.4%
71.1%
5.7%
7.5%
4.8%
-0.9%
0.1%
2.3%
4.2%
5.6%
0.9%
11.8%
8.0%
8.8%
11.1%
16.4%
7.7%
4.4%
10.1%
10.3%
3.7%
4.0%
-0.7%
3.0%
7.1%
1.8%
6.6%
3.3%
10.0%
12.4%
7.9%
2.7%
9.9%
7.2%
7.9%
-1.8%
17.2%
5.8%
3.9%
3.3%
18.4%
13.7%
11.1%
11.1%
12.2%
15.0%
5.4%
9.3%
29.5%
9.6%
2.6%
5.1%
1.9%
18.0%
7.0%
6.5%
7.2%
4.8%
24.7%
32.7%
4.2%
97.4%
7.3%
8.5%
2.7%
-3.3%
22.7%
3.7%
5.6%
9.2%
20.5%
17.3%
14.5%
8.4%
14.0%
19.3%
7.2%
5.9%
1.4%
13.7%
12.9%
14.4%
3.3%
15.5%
7.8%
1.2%
7.5%
7.1%
22.5%
18.8%
13.8%
0.4%
20.0%
12.1%
4.5%
15.7%
30.9%
11.9%
3.9%
3.8%
31.2%
15.5%
14.5%
7.1%
8.3%
14.1%
3.5%
7.4%
6.3%
8.5%
5.3%
6.9%
3.8%
19.5%
9.6%
1.9%
9.3%
6.9%
4.5%
9.2%
1.6%
7.5%
3.7%
10.1%
-9.2%
-3.7%
4.4%
-5.0%
-0.4%
7.5%
4.6%
6.6%
5.1%
1.6%
2.6%
-0.6%
-2.9%
10.6%
6.6%
0.0%
3.0%
4.3%
2.4%
0.7%
9.0%
-1.0%
8.2%
5.5%
-5.2%
8.0%
3.4%
-27.1%
6.4%
3.0%
1.5%
6.2%
20.0%
5.2%
1.8%
6.1%
16.2%
13.2%
10.3%
7.0%
11.3%
5.7%
6.1%
7.3%
2.2%
7.2%
6.0%
6.5%
2.6%
8.5%
7.9%
4.4%
7.6%
5.6%
7.5%
14.3%
7.8%
10.9%
9.0%
7.8%
CAMBIO PROMEDIO
Promedio
Promedio
Promedio
ltimos 5
ltimos 4
ltimos 3
aos
aos
aos
2.0%
1.3%
-0.9%
0.9%
1.4%
2.5%
14.7%
18.7%
19.2%
3.6%
3.9%
3.3%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
5.7%
5.7%
6.5%
14.9%
18.7%
18.8%
12.9%
13.1%
12.9%
10.6%
11.2%
11.3%
7.8%
7.5%
6.4%
9.6%
9.2%
8.3%
12.6%
11.7%
10.6%
4.6%
3.9%
3.3%
7.7%
8.6%
8.3%
10.4%
10.5%
4.8%
8.3%
7.8%
7.2%
5.4%
5.9%
7.0%
6.9%
7.6%
8.4%
2.1%
2.9%
3.2%
11.1%
13.2%
11.6%
8.1%
8.4%
8.8%
2.0%
2.1%
0.7%
7.8%
8.1%
8.4%
5.5%
6.1%
6.5%
10.7%
10.9%
6.7%
15.9%
16.8%
11.9%
6.1%
5.7%
6.2%
9.8%
11.6%
-7.7%
9.3%
9.2%
9.8%
8.1%
8.4%
8.3%
Promedio
ltimos 2
aos
-2.6%
5.6%
16.9%
3.1%
1.7%
5.7%
17.2%
10.9%
9.7%
4.3%
5.4%
6.5%
0.3%
9.0%
6.5%
4.2%
4.2%
5.6%
3.1%
9.7%
9.3%
0.4%
8.8%
6.2%
-0.5%
8.6%
2.5%
-11.4%
5.1%
6.5%
5.04%
<--- Tasa promedio de consultas.
<--- Diferencia
256838157.xls.ms_office/ 6-PIB 2010, tres metodologas
ESCENARIOS DE VARIACION DEL PIB EN EL 2011

SEGN ACTIVIDAD ECONOMICA, DIVISION ECONOMICA y VARIACION ESTRUCTURAL HISTORICA
(En millones de dlares de 1996)
AO 2010
GRAN DIVISION ECONOMICA
1. Agricultura, silvicultura y caza

2. Pesca (2)
3. Explotacin de canteras
Subtotal Sector Primario
4. Industria Manufacturera
5. Electricidad, gas y agua
6. Construccin
7. Transporte, almacenamiento y comunicaciones
Subtotal Sector Secundario y de infraestructura
8. Comercio al por mayor y al por menor
9. Hoteles y Restaurantes
10. Intermediacin Financiera
11. Actividades Inmobiliarias, empresariales y de alquiler
12. Enseanza Privada
Menos: Servicio de intermediacin financiera
Subtotal Sector Terciario (comercial y financiero)
13. Actividades de servicio sociales y de salud privada
14. Otras actividades comunitarias, sociales y personales
15. Productores de servicios gubernamentales
Construccin
Actividades Inmobiliarias, empresariales y de alquiler
Hogares privados con servicio domstico
16. Productores de servicios domsticos
Subtotal Sector Terciario (oficial y personal)
Ms: Derechos de importancion e ITBM
Ms: ITBM que graba las compras de los hogares
Ms: Otros impuestos a los productores
Menos: Subvenciones a los productos
Subtotal Impuestos y transferencias
Producto Interno Bruto Real
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA
VARIACION ANUAL AO 2011 BASADA EN LA TASA ACUMULADA ANUAL DE REFERENCIA (1)

ESCENARIO MODERADO
MONTO
ESTRUCTURAL
MONTO
ESTRUCTURAL
AJUSTADO
3.18%
657.9
664.4
0.98%
Sostenido
652.6
-0.81%
Sostenido
643.1
-2.26%
Desaceleracion en 90%
1.58%
327.2
334.0
2.08%
Cambio de tendencia
333.8
2.02%
Desacelera
331.3
1.25%
Desacelerado en 90%
1.46%
6.2%
302.2
1,287.3
357.0
1,355.4
18.14%
5.3%
Crecimiento sostenido
357.0
1,343.4
18.12%
4.4%
Sostenido
340.7
1,315.0
12.73%
Desacelerado en 75%
5.65%
1169.5
1184.5
1.29%
1190.1
1.76%
Desacelera
1181.9
1.06%
TASA
AJUSTADA
Observacion
MONTO
ESTRUCTURAL
AJUSTADO
TASA
AJUSTADA
Observacion
MONTO
ESTRUCTURAL
AJUSTADO
ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
ESTRUCTURA
AJUSTADA (*)
AO 2010 (%)
TASA
AJUSTADA
Observacion
2.2%
2.77%
573.3
603.5
5.26%
Sostenido
604.1
5.37%
596.8
4.10%
5.89%
1219.3
1,397.3
14.60%
1,410.2
15.66%
1,376.7
12.91%
23.43%
37.7%
4847.9
7,810.0
5,421.6
8,606.9
11.83%
10.2%
5,369.4
8,573.8
10.76%
9.8%
5,242.5
8,398.0
8.14%
14.14%
2925.1
3,103.4
6.10%
3,057.1
4.51%
3,013.6
3.02%
7.5%
2.90%
599.1
659.7
10.12%
633.3
5.72%
622.3
3.88%
7.93%
1640.0
1,719.6
4.85%
1,753.3
6.91%
1,717.6
4.73%
5.34%
1105.6
1,163.7
5.26%
1,108.0
0.22%
1,105.2
-0.04%
0.69%
141.8
150.8
6.34%
155.4
9.58%
151.2
6.64%
-2.16%
28.8%
-447.6
5,963.9
-466.9
6,330.2
4.32%
6.1%
Sostenido
-468.5
6,238.5
4.68%
4.6%
Sostenido
-468.6
6,141.2
4.70%
181.7
179.1
0.84%
185.4
6.55%
2.96%
613.1
647.4
5.59%
6.68%
1381.9
174.0
1,409.8
2.02%
Sostenido
4.39%
649.4
5.91%
1,427.1
3.27%
Sostenido
0.23%
47.1
50.9
8.02%
51.9
10.34%
9.59%
1985.3
2,121.9
6.88%
2,182.9
0.57%
117.6
118.0
2.10%
10.39%
20.9%
2150.0
4,319.0
2290.7
4,533.3
6.54%
5.0%
1.86%
385.3
410.5
6.53%
1.79%
371.4
419.3
12.89%
3.46%
715.4
764.3
6.84%
-0.77%
6.3%
-159.9
1,312.2
-175.5
1,418.7
9.74%
8.1%
100.00%
20,692.5
22,244.4
7.50%
3.0%
2.93%
637.8
4.02%
1,411.5
2.14%
Sostenido
50.5
7.18%
9.95%
2,122.3
6.91%
118.1
0.39%
117.7
0.09%
2352.9
4,611.1
9.44%
6.8%
2290.5
4,518.9
6.54%
431.9
12.08%
417.8
8.42%
387.7
4.39%
382.3
2.93%
764.3
6.83%
748.9
4.68%
-209.7
1,374.2
31.09%
4.7%
-195.1
1,353.9
21.98%
3.17%
22,141.0
7.00%
21,727.1
5.00%
4.6%
NOTA : (1) Se utiliza la Variacin Estructural Promedio Histrica 2007-2009, con el fin de respetar la tendencia da las actividads economicas, para tener una bases sustentable que refleje el cambio en la tendencia
economica mas fielmente el comportamiento estructural del crecimiento sostenido de las diversas actividades economicas que componen la actividad econmica.
(2) Se incorporan los cambios porcentuales a cada actividad, como efecto desacelerador de la actividad, que refleje el estimado esperado para cada rubro, de manera que se alcancen los valores de
crecimiento anual estimado para cada escenario.
FUENTE: Elaboracin propia con base en la informacin editada por la Contralora general de la republica, Direccin de Estadsticas y Censo, Panam en Cifras 2000-08 y otras publicaciones pertinentes
Pagina 10 de 38
256838157.xls.ms_office/ 7-PIB Estructural 2011 Mod
ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES DEL PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO

DURANTE EL PERIODO DE EVALUACION DEL PESIN 2011-2025
EN CONSIDERACION AL PIB ESTIMADO DE 2010
A precios de 1996
Producto Interno Bruto 2010 de 6.78% (2)

ESCENARIO MODERADO
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
AOS
VAR. ANUAL
(En miles de Balboas)
14,041.2
15,238.6
17,084.4
18,812.8
19,378.5
20,692.5
22,141.0
23,554.3
24,779.1
26,210.1
27,938.5
29,126.1
30,419.2
32,436.0
34,162.2
35,882.1
36,820.8
38,236.8
39,900.2
42,312.7
44,486.9
PRONOSTICOS
2005
REAL
2006
2007
2008
2009 PREELIMINAR
2010
ESTIMADO
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
(En %)
VAR. ANUAL
8.53%
12.11%
10.12%
3.01%
6.78%
7.00%
6.38%
5.20%
5.78%
6.59%
4.25%
4.44%
6.63%
5.32%
5.03%
2.62%
3.85%
4.35%
6.05%
5.14%
15,238.6
17,084.4
18,812.8
19,378.5
20,692.5
22,244.4
24,246.4
25,943.7
27,733.8
29,835.6
31,650.3
33,387.4
35,861.6
38,088.4
40,322.9
41,833.8
43,990.4
46,573.7
49,847.6
53,148.7
(En %)
8.53%
12.11%
10.12%
3.01%
6.78%
7.50%
9.00%
7.00%
6.90%
7.58%
6.08%
5.49%
7.41%
6.21%
5.87%
3.75%
5.16%
5.87%
7.03%
6.62%
VAR. ANUAL
15,238.6
17,084.4
18,812.8
19,378.5
20,692.5
21,727.1
22,704.8
23,567.6
24,628.2
26,089.2
26,845.0
27,846.1
29,569.1
30,991.3
32,389.7
33,008.3
34,079.4
35,356.3
37,357.4
39,043.7
(En %)
8.53%
12.11%
10.12%
3.01%
6.78%
5.00%
4.50%
3.80%
4.50%
5.93%
2.90%
3.73%
6.19%
4.81%
4.51%
1.91%
3.25%
3.75%
5.66%
4.51%
Crecimiento Anual
Aos
19
Tipo
Estudio
4
15
4
6
5
11
Histrico
Pronostico
Corto Plazo
Medio Plazo
Largo Plazo
Periodo
NOTAS:
Periodo
(2006-2023)
5.96%
6.90%
5.27%
(2006-2009)
(2011-2025)
(2011-2014)
(2015-2020)
(2021-2025)
(2015-2025)
6.19%
6.19%
6.19%
5.33%
6.51%
4.48%
5.79%
7.63%
4.27%
5.13%
6.21%
4.42%
4.84%
6.17%
4.29%
4.93%
6.09%
4.28%
Escenarios a partir de un Producto Interno bruto al 2009 de 3.40%, estimado con base al comportamiento historico al segundo trimestre del PIB, en el periodo 2001-2008.
ajustados a partir de un Producto Interno bruto al 2010 de 6.78%, derivado del comportamiento real del PIB durante los dos primeros trimestres del ao, con respecto al promedio estru
'del mismo durante los ultimos tres aos. Boletin de la Direccin de Estadisticas y Censo,
(3) Escenario Moderado esta basado en el escenario "mas probable" definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal, incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 5.5 miles d
(4) Escenario Optimista esta basado en el "mejor escenario" , definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal , incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 4.7 miles de millo
(5) Escenario Pesimista esta basado en el "peor escenario" , definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal , incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 4.7 miles de millon
(6) Las tasas de crecimiento de los escenarios moderado, optimista y pesimista para el 2011 con respecto al ao precedente fueron estimadas en 7.75, 8.0 y 4.99 por ciento. Tasa derivadas de la sim
del PIB, desarrollado para el ao 2010. La Hoja EXCEL es PIB Estructural Estimado 2009.
(1)
(2) Escenarios
Fuente:
ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022

1/9/2015 7:51 PM
Desarrollo de ETESA basados en los escenarios elaborados por INTRACORP, por medio de un Modelo Matematico de Insumo- Producto, para mostrar los impactos directos,inducidos, paralelos
y del Conglomerado del canal en la economia nacional . "Estudio del Impacto Economico del Canal y el Proyecto de Ampliacion en el Ambito Nacional". Revision, Abril de 2006.
256838157.xls.ms_office/ 8-Estimacion PIB 2011-2025
EMPALME DE BASES 1996

PROYECCION 2011-2025
AOS
PRODUCTO
INTERNO BRUTO
TASAS
MODERADO
OPTIMISTA
PESIMISTA
1982
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
ESTUDIO DE LA DE DEMANDA 2009-2023

1/9/2015 7:51 PM
2.36%
6.81%
7.00%
6.38%
5.20%
5.78%
6.59%
4.25%
4.44%
6.63%
5.32%
5.03%
2.62%
3.85%
4.35%
6.05%
5.14%
2.36%
6.81%
8.00%
9.04%
7.03%
6.93%
7.62%
6.11%
5.52%
7.45%
6.24%
5.90%
3.77%
5.18%
5.90%
7.06%
6.66%
2.36%
6.81%
4.00%
4.48%
3.78%
4.48%
5.90%
2.88%
3.71%
6.16%
4.79%
4.49%
1.90%
3.23%
3.73%
5.63%
4.49%
256838157.xls.ms_office/ 9-Empalme de Bases 96-82 11-25
ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES DE LA ACTIVIDAD DE

MANUFACTURA EN EL PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO
DURANTE EL PERIODO DE EVALUACION DEL PLAN 2010-2024
EN CONSIDERACION AL PIB ESTIMADO DE 2010
A precios de 1996
Producto Interno Bruto 2010 de 6.78% (2)

ESCENARIO MODERADO
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
AOS
2004
2005
2006
REAL
2007
2008
2009 Preliminar
2010 Estimado
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
MONTOS
VAR. ANUAL
MONTOS
VAR. ANUAL
MONTOS
VAR. ANUAL
(En %)
(En %)
(En %)
PRONOSTICOS
1,026.9
1,066.7
1,126.7
1,170.9
1,165.7
1,190.1
1,204.9
1,208.3
1,204.9
1,252.3
1,351.2
1,395.2
1,446.9
1,507.1
1,565.0
1,630.5
1,690.7
1,748.6
1,801.6
1,895.4
1,960.4
3.88%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
2.09%
1.25%
0.28%
-0.28%
3.93%
7.90%
3.26%
3.70%
4.16%
3.84%
4.19%
3.70%
3.42%
3.04%
5.20%
3.43%
1,026.9
1,066.7
1,126.7
1,170.9
1,165.7
1,190.0
1,207.3
1,209.1
1,223.1
1,281.3
1,402.9
1,470.4
1,538.0
1,615.7
1,693.5
1,777.8
1,859.3
1,949.7
2,041.5
2,154.6
2,248.3
3.88%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
2.09%
1.45%
0.15%
1.16%
4.76%
9.49%
4.81%
4.59%
5.06%
4.81%
4.98%
4.58%
4.86%
4.71%
5.54%
4.35%
1,026.9
1,066.7
1,126.7
1,170.9
1,165.7
1,170.7
1,182.4
1,182.9
1,186.3
1,231.3
1,314.3
1,344.1
1,386.6
1,435.9
1,482.8
1,536.5
1,584.4
1,630.8
1,672.3
1,747.5
1,795.8
3.88%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
0.43%
1.00%
0.04%
0.29%
3.79%
6.74%
2.27%
3.16%
3.56%
3.27%
3.62%
3.12%
2.93%
2.55%
4.50%
2.77%
Crecimiento Anual
Aos
19
Tipo
Estudio
3
15
4
6
5
Histrico
Pronostico
Corto Plazo
Medio Plazo
Largo Plazo
NOTAS:
Periodo
(2006-2025)
3.30%
4.02%
2.85%
(2006-2010)
(2011-2025)
(2011-2014)
(2015-2020)
(2021-2025)
2.99%
2.99%
2.66%
3.54%
4.54%
3.03%
1.29%
2.00%
1.36%
3.83%
4.85%
3.17%
3.77%
4.86%
3.18%
Escenarios a partir de un Producto Interno bruto al 2008 de 8.3%, estimado previstoinicial del MEF para este ao.
Escenarios a partir de un Producto Interno bruto al 2008 de 8.71%, derivado del comportamiento real del PIB durante los dos primeros trimestres del ao, Boletin de la Direccin de ESTAdisticas y Censo,
' Evolucion Trimestral del PIB ( II Trimestre del 2008). Con un incremento de 9.5% del I semestre del ao con respecto al ao anterior. Ademas, el Indice Mensual de la actividad Econmica (IMAE)
(1)
(2)
de enero-agosto del 2008 muestra un incremento de 9.2 por ciento, con respecto al mismo periodo del ao anterior.
Escenario Moderado esta basado en el escenario "mas probable" definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal, incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 5.5 miles de millones
(4) Escenario Optimista esta basado en el "mejor escenario" , definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal , incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 4.7 miles de millones de $ U
(5) Escenario Pesimista esta basado en el "peor escenario" , definido por INTRACORP, Voumen III, xxiv .Con Expansion del Canal , incremento de 3.5% de peajes,e inversion de 4.7 miles de millones de $ US
(6) Las tasas de crecimiento de los escenarios moderado, optimista y pesimista para el 2009 con respecto al ao precedente fueron estimadas en 7.75, 8.0 y 4.99 por ciento. Tasa derivadas de la simulacion
del PIB, desarrollado para el ao 2009. La Hoja EXCEL es PIB Estructural Estimado 2009.
(3)
Fuente:
ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022
Desarrollo de ETESA basados en los escenarios elaborados por INTRACORP, por medio de un Modelo Matematico de Insumo- Producto, para mostrar los impactos directos,inducidos, paralelos
y del Conglomerado del canal en la economia nacional . "Estudio del Impacto Economico del Canal y el Proyecto de Ampliacion en el Ambito Nacional". Revision, Abril de 2006.
256838157.xls.ms_office/ 10Est. PIB MANUFACTURA ACP96-11
CUADRO No. 11
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO

ESCENARIO BASE
Millones de Balboas de 1982
AO
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TOTAL
2,725
2,978
3,153
3,323
3,460
3,542
3,613
3,693
3,980
4,206
4,142
4,523
4,765
4,551
4,674
4,905
5,080
4,988
4,321
4,388
4,744
5,190
5,616
5,923
6,091
6,198
6,372
6,658
6,947
7,170
7,346
7,365
7,496
7,759
8,359
8,972
9,771
10,982
12,111
12,396
13,240
14,167
15,071
15,855
16,771
17,876
18,636
19,464
20,754
21,859
22,959
23,560
24,466
25,530
27,074
28,465
VAR%
PIB (Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)
MODERADO
MODERADO
INDUSTRIA
9.3%
5.9%
5.4%
4.1%
2.4%
2.0%
2.2%
7.8%
5.7%
-1.5%
9.2%
5.3%
-4.5%
2.7%
4.9%
3.6%
-1.8%
-13.4%
1.6%
8.1%
9.4%
8.2%
5.5%
2.9%
1.8%
2.8%
4.5%
4.4%
3.2%
2.5%
0.3%
1.8%
3.5%
7.7%
7.3%
8.9%
12.4%
10.3%
2.4%
6.8%
7.0%
6.4%
5.2%
5.8%
6.6%
4.3%
4.4%
6.6%
5.3%
5.0%
2.6%
3.8%
4.4%
6.0%
5.1%
285.1
303.2
317.1
337.0
341.5
329.2
337.5
341.5
346.9
385.2
428.9
418.0
433.0
423.7
452.7
478.1
481.4
514.5
398.9
404.1
459.8
507.9
554.4
589.5
614.6
615.8
608.1
646.8
672.1
622.0
589.2
555.6
541.0
522.6
533.5
555.9
577.5
610.0
633.9
631.1
644.3
652.3
654.1
652.3
677.9
731.5
755.3
783.3
815.9
847.2
882.7
915.3
946.6
975.3
1,026.1
1,061.3
VAR%
6.3%
4.6%
6.3%
1.3%
-3.6%
2.5%
1.2%
1.6%
11.0%
11.3%
-2.5%
3.6%
-2.1%
6.8%
5.6%
0.7%
6.9%
-22.5%
1.3%
13.8%
10.5%
9.2%
6.3%
4.3%
0.2%
-1.3%
6.4%
3.9%
-7.5%
-5.3%
-5.7%
-2.6%
-3.4%
2.1%
4.2%
3.9%
5.6%
3.92%
-0.44%
2.09%
1.25%
0.28%
-0.28%
3.93%
7.90%
3.26%
3.70%
4.16%
3.84%
4.19%
3.70%
3.42%
3.04%
5.20%
3.43%
TOTAL
Poly. (TOTAL)
8,500
6,500
4,500
2,500
R = 0.9957
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
TOTAL
Linear (TOTAL)
PIB MANUFACTURERO
800.0
R = 0.8114
(Millones de Balboas a precios de 1982)

DATOS HISTRICOS 1970-2010
600.0
400.0
INDUSTRIA
Linear (INDUSTRIA)
200.0
PIB MANUFACTURERO
R = 0.9538

2003 - 2024
1,200.0
(Historia reciente + Proyeccin)
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
INDUSTRIA
Linear (INDUSTRIA)
400.0
20.0%
TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
2025
2022
2019
2016
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
0.0%
-5.0%
1983
4.1%
12,500
10,500
1980
3.4%
14,500
1977
3.3%
5.2%
10.5%
10.2%
10.1%
10.1%
9.9%
9.3%
9.3%
9.2%
8.7%
9.2%
10.4%
9.2%
9.1%
9.3%
9.7%
9.7%
9.5%
10.3%
9.2%
9.2%
9.7%
9.8%
9.9%
10.0%
10.1%
9.9%
9.5%
9.7%
9.7%
8.7%
8.0%
7.5%
7.2%
6.7%
6.4%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
5.2%
5.1%
4.9%
4.6%
4.3%
4.1%
4.0%
4.1%
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
3.9%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
3.7%
1974
5.3%
%/TOTAL
1971
PROMEDIO
TASA ACUMULADA ANUAL
R = 0.9467
DATOS HISTRICOS
-10.0%
PREMISAS
-15.0%
a) PIB TOTAL: Escenario conservador, con crecimiento

promedio anual de 4.4%, para todo el periodo del
horizonte de planeamiento.
-20.0%
TOTAL
INDUSTRIA
-25.0%
b) PIB MANUFACTURERO: Escenario conservador,

con crecimiento promedio inferior al PIB total,
manteniendo su participacin estructural, en 4.7% del
PIB Total. Promedio de los ultimos tres aos.
HOJA: 11-PIB-Moderado Base-1982
1/9/2015
15,000
5,000
-

Histrico reciente + proyeccin
45,000
25,000
800.0
400.0
INDUSTRIA
Linear (INDUSTRIA)
200.0
PIB MANUFACTURERO
2003 - 2025 (Historia reciente + proyeccin)
R2 = 0.9851
1,400.0
1,200.0
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
INDUSTRIA
Linear (INDUSTRIA)
2024
2025
2023
2022
2020
2021
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2025
2013
2022
2010
2005
400.0
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
2019
2016
-10.0%
2007
0.0%
TOTAL
INDUSTRIA
PREMISAS
-15.0%
a) PIB TOTAL: Escenario conservador, con

crecimiento promedio anual de 5.7%, para todo el
periodo del horizonte de planeamiento.
-20.0%
-25.0%
b) PIB MANUFACTURERO: crecimiento promedio, de

ms de un punto porcentual a la tasa de crecimiento
del PIB, manteniendo su participacin estructural, de
4.7% del PIB Total. Promedio de los ultimos tres aos.
HOJA: 12-PIB-Optimista Base-1982
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
600.0
2004
4.3%
R2 = 0.7725
PIB MANUFACTURERO
2001
6.6%
2003
5,000
2004
15,000
1998
3.9%
Linear (TOTAL)
1995
4.2%
TOTAL
R2 = 0.9924
35,000
1992
6.6%
Linear (TOTAL)
10,000
-5.0%
PROMEDIO
TOTAL
1989
10.5%
10.2%
10.1%
10.1%
9.9%
9.3%
9.3%
9.2%
8.7%
9.2%
10.4%
9.2%
9.1%
9.3%
9.7%
9.7%
9.5%
10.3%
9.2%
9.2%
9.7%
9.8%
9.9%
10.0%
10.1%
9.9%
9.5%
9.7%
9.7%
8.7%
8.0%
7.5%
7.2%
6.7%
6.4%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
5.2%
5.1%
4.9%
4.6%
4.2%
4.0%
3.9%
4.0%
3.9%
3.9%
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
1986
6.3%
4.6%
6.3%
1.3%
-3.6%
2.5%
1.2%
1.6%
11.0%
11.3%
-2.5%
3.6%
-2.1%
6.8%
5.6%
0.7%
6.9%
-22.5%
1.3%
13.8%
10.5%
9.2%
6.3%
4.3%
0.2%
-1.3%
6.4%
3.9%
-7.5%
-5.3%
-5.7%
-2.6%
-3.4%
2.1%
4.2%
3.9%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
2.09%
1.45%
0.15%
1.16%
4.76%
9.49%
4.81%
4.59%
5.06%
4.81%
4.98%
4.58%
4.86%
4.71%
5.54%
4.35%
R2 = 0.9444
DATOS HISTRICOS
1983
285.1
303.2
317.1
337.0
341.5
329.2
337.5
341.5
346.9
385.2
428.9
418.0
433.0
423.7
452.7
478.1
481.4
514.5
398.9
404.1
459.8
507.9
554.4
589.5
614.6
615.8
608.1
646.8
672.1
622.0
589.2
555.6
541.0
522.6
533.5
555.9
577.5
610.0
633.9
631.1
644.2
653.6
654.6
662.1
693.7
759.5
796.0
832.6
874.7
916.8
962.4
1,006.6
1,055.5
1,105.2
1,166.4
1,217.1

%/TOTAL
1980
9.3%
5.9%
5.4%
4.1%
2.4%
2.0%
2.2%
7.8%
5.7%
-1.5%
9.2%
5.3%
-4.5%
2.7%
4.9%
3.6%
-1.8%
-13.4%
1.6%
8.1%
9.4%
8.2%
5.5%
2.9%
1.8%
2.8%
4.5%
4.4%
3.2%
2.5%
0.3%
1.8%
3.5%
7.7%
7.3%
8.9%
12.39%
10.28%
2.36%
6.81%
8.00%
9.04%
7.03%
6.93%
7.62%
6.11%
5.52%
7.45%
6.24%
5.90%
3.77%
5.18%
5.90%
7.06%
6.66%
VAR%
1977
2,725
2,978
3,153
3,323
3,460
3,542
3,613
3,693
3,980
4,206
4,142
4,523
4,765
4,551
4,674
4,905
5,080
4,988
4,321
4,388
4,744
5,190
5,616
5,923
6,091
6,198
6,372
6,658
6,947
7,170
7,346
7,365
7,496
7,759
8,359
8,972
9,771
10,982
12,111
12,396
13,240
14,299
15,593
16,690
17,847
19,206
20,380
21,504
23,106
24,548
25,995
26,974
28,372
30,046
32,169
34,310
INDUSTRIA
1974
VAR%
1971
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TOTAL
2004
AO
OPTIMISTA
OPTIMISTA
2003
ESCENARIO ALTO
1/9/2015
15,000
5,000
-

Histrico reciente + proyeccin
30,000
20,000
15,000
800.0
400.0
INDUSTRIA
Linear (INDUSTRIA)
200.0
PIB MANUFACTURERO
2003 - 2025
(Historia reciente + proyeccin)
1,200.0
R2 = 0.9851
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Linear (INDUSTRIA)
2019
2018
2017
2016
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2015
INDUSTRIA
400.0
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
TOTAL
INDUSTRIA
-15.0%
a) PIB TOTAL: Escenario conservador, con

crecimiento promedio anual de 3.9%, para todo el
periodo del horizonte de planeamiento.
-20.0%
-25.0%
b) PIB MANUFACTURERO: crecimiento promedio, de

un punto porcentual inferior al PIB total, manteniendo
su participacin estructural, de 4.7% del PIB Total. En
concordancia con promedio de los ultimos tres aos.
1/9/2015
2025
2022
2019
2016
2013
2010
-10.0%
2007
0.0%
PREMISAS
HOJA: 13-PIB-PESIMISTA Base-1982
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
600.0
2004
2.9%
R2 = 0.7725
PIB MANUFACTURERO
2001
4.2%
2003
5,000
2004
10,000
1998
4.2%
Linear (TOTAL)
1995
2.8%
TOTAL
R2 = 0.9924
25,000
1992
4.4%
Linear (TOTAL)
10,000
-5.0%
PROMEDIO
TOTAL
1989
10.5%
10.2%
10.1%
10.1%
9.9%
9.3%
9.3%
9.2%
8.7%
9.2%
10.4%
9.2%
9.1%
9.3%
9.7%
9.7%
9.5%
10.3%
9.2%
9.2%
9.7%
9.8%
9.9%
10.0%
10.1%
9.9%
9.5%
9.7%
9.7%
8.7%
8.0%
7.5%
7.2%
6.7%
6.4%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
5.2%
5.1%
4.8%
4.6%
4.5%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
3.9%
1986
6.3%
4.6%
6.3%
1.3%
-3.6%
2.5%
1.2%
1.6%
11.0%
11.3%
-2.5%
3.6%
-2.1%
6.8%
5.6%
0.7%
6.9%
-22.5%
1.3%
13.8%
10.5%
9.2%
6.3%
4.3%
0.2%
-1.3%
6.4%
3.9%
-7.5%
-5.3%
-5.7%
-2.6%
-3.4%
2.1%
4.2%
3.9%
5.62%
3.92%
-0.44%
0.43%
1.00%
0.04%
0.29%
3.79%
6.74%
2.27%
3.16%
3.56%
3.27%
3.62%
3.12%
2.93%
2.55%
4.50%
2.77%
R2 = 0.9444
DATOS HISTRICOS
1983
285.1
303.2
317.1
337.0
341.5
329.2
337.5
341.5
346.9
385.2
428.9
418.0
433.0
423.7
452.7
478.1
481.4
514.5
398.9
404.1
459.8
507.9
554.4
589.5
614.6
615.8
608.1
646.8
672.1
622.0
589.2
555.6
541.0
522.6
533.5
555.9
577.5
610.0
633.9
631.1
633.8
640.1
640.4
642.2
666.6
711.5
727.6
750.6
777.3
802.7
831.8
857.7
882.8
905.3
946.0
972.2

%/TOTAL
1980
9.3%
5.9%
5.4%
4.1%
2.4%
2.0%
2.2%
7.8%
5.7%
-1.5%
9.2%
5.3%
-4.5%
2.7%
4.9%
3.6%
-1.8%
-13.4%
1.6%
8.1%
9.4%
8.2%
5.5%
2.9%
1.8%
2.8%
4.5%
4.4%
3.2%
2.5%
0.3%
1.8%
3.5%
7.7%
7.3%
8.9%
12.39%
10.28%
2.36%
6.81%
4.00%
4.48%
3.78%
4.48%
5.90%
2.88%
3.71%
6.16%
4.79%
4.49%
1.90%
3.23%
3.73%
5.63%
4.49%
VAR%
1977
2,725
2,978
3,153
3,323
3,460
3,542
3,613
3,693
3,980
4,206
4,142
4,523
4,765
4,551
4,674
4,905
5,080
4,988
4,321
4,388
4,744
5,190
5,616
5,923
6,091
6,198
6,372
6,658
6,947
7,170
7,346
7,365
7,496
7,759
8,359
8,972
9,771
10,982
12,111
12,396
13,240
13,770
14,387
14,931
15,599
16,520
16,996
17,627
18,712
19,607
20,488
20,877
21,551
22,354
23,613
24,674
INDUSTRIA
1974
VAR%
1971
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TOTAL
2004
AO
PESIMISTA
PESIMISTA
2003
ESCENARIO BAJO
CUADRO No. 14
RESUMEN DE TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB, SEGN
ESCENARIOS
2011-2025
PERIODOS
TOTAL
DIFERENCIAS
TASAS HISTRICAS (PIB- base 982)

1980-1990
1.29%
0.79%
1991-2000
4.50%
-1.83%
2001-2009
6.14%
-5.17%
Mximo
12.4%
Promedio
-2.07%
ESCENARIO MODERADO
2009
6.81%
2010-2011
7.00%
-5.75%
2011-2014
6.09%
-4.80%
2015-2025
4.93%
-0.77%
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA
2009
6.81%
2010-2011
8.00%
-6.55%
2011-2014
7.75%
-5.87%
2015-2025
6.13%
-0.87%
ESCENARIO PESISMISTA
2009
6.81%
2010-2011
4.00%
-3.00%
2011-2014
4.18%
-2.90%
2015-2025
4.26%
-0.77%
TASA
INDUSTRIAL
% /TOTAL
2.08%
2.67%
0.96%
13.8%
9.58%
9.53%
7.05%
10.4%
2.09%
1.25%
1.29%
4.17%
6.03%
5.91%
5.84%
5.82%
2.09%
1.45%
1.88%
5.25%
6.01%
5.87%
5.78%
5.60%
0.43%
1.00%
1.28%
3.50%
6.01%
5.87%
5.78%
5.60%
CUADRO No. 15
ANLISIS DEL FACTOR DE CARGA Y PROYECCIN LINEAL
EE
801.7
859.4
980.4
1139.9
1148.0
1214.3
1348.7
1450.3
1469.1
1724.0
1756.5
1863.5
2030.5
2193.5
2225.9
2412.9
2565.7
2748.3
2579.9
2624.7
2746.1
2896.6
3011.6
3199.1
3400.0
3619.4
3795.8
4254.4
4295.8
4474.5
4967.5
4999.9
5221.7
5342.6
5571.0
5711.0
5861.3
6208.8
6386.4
6753.7
7299.5
Estimado
65.3
65.4
65.5
65.6
65.8
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.3
66.4
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.9
67.0
67.1
67.2
67.3
67.5
67.6
67.7
67.8
67.9
68.1
68.2
68.3
68.4
68.5
68.7
68.8
68.9
69.0
69.1
69.3
69.4
69.5
69.6
69.8
69.9
70.0
70.1
Error
-0.31
-0.29
-0.27
-1.75
-2.13
-2.91
-0.19
-2.77
1.75
-2.13
0.99
0.11
2.83
0.05
1.28
2.20
-0.68
1.24
5.06
0.38
0.20
0.12
1.74
0.56
2.58
1.60
0.92
-0.16
1.16
1.09
-4.09
-0.89
-2.34
-1.50
-1.05
-1.10
-0.90
-1.03
-0.76
1.28
0.11
0%
0%
0%
-3%
-3%
-4%
0%
-4%
3%
-3%
2%
0%
4%
0%
2%
3%
-1%
2%
8%
1%
0%
0%
3%
1%
4%
2%
1%
0%
2%
2%
-6%
-1%
-3%
-2%
-1%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-1%
7%
7%
Factor de Carga y
Energa Electrica Disponible
R = 0.5248
8000.0
74.0
72.0
7000.0
70.0
6000.0
68.0
5000.0
66.0
4000.0
64.0
3000.0
62.0
EE
FC
Poly. (FC)
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
58.0
56.0
FC
y = 0.1207x + 65.165
R = 0.4055
Factor de Carga
Linear (FC)
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
67.7
0.21% Promedios---->
0.00 -71.9%
-0.2%
Estimados: Pronstico Lineal
2011
70.2
70.1 <--valores ideales a adopar por el modelo
2012
70.4
68.5 por mecanismo de clculo de variacin anual
2013
70.5
68.7
2014
70.6
68.9
2015
70.7
69.1
2016
70.9
69.3
2017
71.0
69.5
2018
71.1
69.7
2019
71.2
69.9
2020
71.3
70.1
2021
71.5
70.3
2022
71.6
70.5
2023
71.7
70.7
2024
71.8
70.9
2025
71.9
71.2
60.0
Energa Elctrica Disponible
(1970-2010)
(1970-1998)
(1999-2008)
(1999-2009)
(1999-2010)
(2000-2008)
(2000-2005)
(2006-2010)
PROMEDIO VARIACION ANUAL

67.7
0.16%
66.6
0.10%
70.6
0.47%
70.4
0.15%
70.4
0.30%
70.9
70.6
70.1
-0.41%
0.25%
-0.19%
FC (%)
0.2%
0.2%
2.4%
0.7%
1.3%
-3.8%
4.1%
-6.4%
6.2%
-4.4%
1.5%
-3.9%
4.5%
-1.6%
-1.2%
4.6%
-2.7%
-5.6%
7.7%
0.4%
0.3%
-2.2%
2.0%
-2.8%
1.7%
1.2%
1.8%
-1.7%
0.3%
7.8%
-4.2%
2.2%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.2%
-0.1%
0.4%
-0.2%
-2.7%
1.9%
Energa (GWh)
Var Anual
65.6
65.7
65.8
67.4
67.9
68.8
66.2
68.9
64.5
68.5
65.5
66.5
63.9
66.8
65.7
64.9
67.9
66.1
62.4
67.2
67.5
67.7
66.2
67.5
65.6
66.7
67.5
68.7
67.5
67.7
73.0
69.9
71.5
70.8
70.4
70.6
70.5
70.8
70.6
68.7
70.0
Factor de Carga
FC
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
16- PerdidasPremisasProy.Mod.251/9/2015
CUADRO N. 18
PREMISAS DE PROYECCIN DE PRDIDAS DE ENERGA
Ventas de
PERDIDAS
Energia
AO
Sectores
Total
Transmision
Basicos
2001
3,839
1,066
129.19
2002
4,015
1,109
186.80
2003
4,201
1,036
150.86
2004
4,476
976
184.22
2005
4,658
930
155.52
2006
4,813
928
114.90
2007
5,174
911
121.28
2008
5,320
924
149.67
2009
5,602
1,016
126.95
2010
6,132
1,027
150.98
Estructura respecto a Energa Disponible

Distribucin
Transm.
936.81
921.90
884.88
791.58
774.68
812.86
789.62
774.55
888.76
876.42
5,000
5,222
5,343
5,571
5,711
5,861
6,209
6,386
6,387
7,299
2.6%
3.6%
2.8%
3.3%
2.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
2.1%
Distrib.
18.7%
17.7%
16.6%
14.2%
13.6%
13.9%
12.7%
12.1%
13.9%
12.0%
PORECENTAJE DE PRDIDAS RESPECTO A VENTAS SECTORES BASICOS(Relacin requerida por el modelo)

Transmisin
Distribucin
Tcnicas
No Tcnicas
Total
Ao
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
PROMEDIO
2001-2009
2001-2005
2006-2010
2010
27.77%
27.62%
24.66%
21.80%
19.97%
19.27%
17.60%
17.37%
18.13%
16.76%
3.4%
4.7%
3.6%
4.1%
3.3%
2.4%
2.3%
2.8%
2.3%
2.5%
24.40%
22.96%
21.07%
17.69%
16.63%
16.89%
15.26%
14.6%
15.9%
14.29%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
8.00%
7.67%
7.66%
7.66%
7.64%
7.64%
16.40%
14.96%
13.07%
9.69%
8.63%
9.21%
7.60%
6.90%
8.23%
6.66%
21.58%
24.36%
17.83%
16.76%
3.21%
3.8%
2.5%
2.46%
18.37%
20.5%
15.4%
14.29%
8.0%
7.7%
7.64%
18.4%
12.5%
7.7%
6.66%
PREMISAS PROYECCION ESCENARIO MODERADO

Transmisin aumenta al 2014 % hasta no superar el
Al 2024 alcanza una tasa de
Tecnicas de Distribucin disminuyen en una tasa de
No tcnicas de Distribucin alcanzan en el 2014 la tasa menor
Transmisin
Total
2008
17.38%
2.81%
2009
18.13%
2.27%
2010
16.76%
2.46%
2011
17.28%
3.09%
2012
17.57%
3.48%
2013
17.75%
3.75%
2024
15.85%
2.95%
2025
15.78%
2.89%
Variacion periodo completo
Variacion Anual Promedio
-0.40%
0.4%
-2.15%
PREMISAS PROYECCION ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA

Transmisin aumenta % hasta no superar el
No tcnicas de Distribucin alcanzan en el 2014 la tasa menor
Transmisin
Total
2008
17.37%
2.81%
2009
18.13%
2.27%
2010
16.76%
2.46%
2011
16.73%
2.64%
2012
16.86%
2.97%
2013
16.90%
3.20%
2024
14.02%
2.52%
2025
13.78%
2.48%
-5.78%
0.3%
-1.58%
PREMISAS PROYECCION ESCENARIO PESIMISTA

Transmisin aumenta % hasta no superar el
No tcnicas de Distribucin permanecen aproximadamente en
Transmisin
Total
2008
17.37%
2.81%
2009
18.13%
2.27%
2010
16.68%
2.46%
2011
17.56%
3.39%
2012
17.94%
3.82%
2013
18.19%
4.12%
2024
16.76%
3.24%
2025
16.66%
3.19%
0.03%
0.9%
-1.58%
-0.005
-0.107
-0.116
-0.084
-0.035
-0.087
-0.013
0.044
-0.076
4.00%
2.50%
-0.05%
<6.5%
Distribucin
Tcnicas
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
No Tcnicas
14.6%
15.9%
14.3%
14.2%
14.1%
14.0%
12.9%
12.8%
7.66%
7.64%
7.64%
7.59%
7.54%
7.49%
6.94%
6.89%
6.90%
8.23%
6.66%
6.61%
6.56%
6.51%
5.96%
5.91%
5.1%
-0.74%
5.8%
-0.63%
-0.8%
-2.05%
2013-2024
2025-2024
3.50%
2.30%
-0.10%
<6.0%
Distribucin
Tcnicas
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
No Tcnicas
14.6%
15.9%
14.3%
14.1%
13.9%
13.7%
11.5%
11.3%
7.66%
7.64%
7.64%
7.54%
7.44%
7.34%
6.24%
6.14%
6.90%
8.23%
6.66%
6.56%
6.46%
6.36%
5.26%
5.16%
-2.8%
-1.58%
-1.4%
-1.34%
-1.4%
-2.94%
2013-2024
2025-2024
4.50%
3.20%
-0.025%
<6.5%
Distribucin
Tcnicas
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
No Tcnicas
14.6%
15.9%
14.2%
14.2%
14.1%
14.1%
13.5%
13.5%
7.66%
7.64%
7.56%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.21%
7.19%
6.90%
8.23%
6.66%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.31%
6.28%
-0.8%
-0.36%
-0.4%
-0.38%
-0.4%
-1.76%
2013-2024
2025-2024
19/ 38
EVOLUCIN DE PRECIOS DE LA ELECTRICIDAD

IPCPAN
INFPAN
IPC anual de Panam

(1987 = 100)
Facturacin
AO
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Millones B/.
20.8
24.4
28.4
31.6
45.6
56.4
63.0
83.7
92.5
111.1
143.4
164.3
191.7
230.3
228.4
235.1
242.0
255.2
238.3
231.8
238.8
254.0
263.8
281.7
304.2
324.3
333.9
362.9
377.3
362.8
429.4
460.0
450.4
499.3
544.3
643.3
735.9
Ventas
GWh
710.3
775.4
869.8
984.0
980.7
1041.0
1143.1
1260.1
1268.2
1480.9
1472.3
1554.3
1674.8
1850.6
1816.5
1944.1
2045.1
2191.1
2063.1
1983.6
2053.0
2185.9
2311.4
2486.2
2671.9
2869.6
2984.0
3302.1
3392.3
3578.0
3801.1
3933.9
4113.1
4306.8
4595.2
4780.8
4936.2
Precio
Centavos/
KWh
2.93
3.15
3.27
3.21
4.65
5.42
5.51
6.64
7.29
7.50
9.74
10.57
11.45
12.44
12.57
12.09
11.83
11.65
11.55
11.69
11.63
11.62
11.41
11.33
11.39
11.30
11.19
10.99
11.12
10.14
11.30
11.69
10.95
11.59
11.85
13.46
14.91
HOJA: 17- Precios EE- histrico
Inflacin de Panam
Frmula- Modelo
IPC-B-1987
42.20
43.00
45.40
48.50
56.90
60.00
62.40
65.40
68.30
73.80
84.30
90.60
94.50
96.60
98.20
99.10
99.10
100.00
100.50
100.60
101.40
102.70
104.50
105.00
106.40
107.40
108.80
110.10
110.80
112.40
114.10
114.40
115.80
117.70
119.40
122.80
125.90
COPE 1971-2002
IPC-B-1982
44.66
45.50
48.04
51.32
60.21
63.49
66.03
69.21
72.28
78.10
89.21
95.87
100.00
102.22
103.92
104.87
104.87
105.82
106.35
106.46
107.30
108.68
110.58
111.11
112.59
113.65
115.13
116.51
117.25
118.94
120.74
121.06
122.54
124.55
126.35
129.95
133.23
Frmula- Modelo
B/.de 1982
0.85
2.54
3.28
8.89
3.28
2.54
3.17
3.07
5.82
11.11
6.67
4.13
2.22
1.69
0.95
0.00
0.95
0.53
0.11
0.85
1.38
1.90
0.53
1.48
1.06
1.48
1.38
0.74
1.69
1.80
0.32
1.48
2.01
1.80
3.60
3.28
VARIACION % DE PRECIOS PROMEDIOS DE LA ENERGA

ELCTRICA EN PANAM Y DEL PETRLEO CRUDO
IMPORTADO EN USA, 1980-2006
Precio Electricidad
6.56
6.92
6.80
6.26
7.72
8.53
8.35
9.60
10.09
9.61
10.92
11.03
11.45
12.17
12.10
11.53
11.28
11.01
10.86
10.98
10.84
10.69
10.32
10.20
10.11
9.94
9.72
9.43
9.49
8.52
9.36
9.66
8.93
9.31
9.37
10.35
11.20
Var anual
B/.de 1982 Var.EEPma Var.Pet-EAI
0.36
-0.12
-0.54
1.47
0.81
-0.19
1.25
0.49
-0.49
1.31
0.11
0.42
0.73
-0.07
-0.57
-0.25
-0.28
-0.15
0.12
-0.14
-0.15
-0.37
-0.12
-0.09
-0.17
-0.22
-0.29
0.05
-0.96
0.83
0.30
-0.72
0.37
0.07
0.98
0.84
5.5%
-1.7%
-7.9%
23.4%
10.5%
-2.2%
15.0%
5.1%
-4.8%
13.7%
1.0%
3.8%
6.4%
-0.6%
-4.7%
-2.1%
-2.5%
-1.3%
1.1%
-1.2%
-1.4%
-3.5%
-1.2%
-0.8%
-1.7%
-2.3%
-2.9%
0.6%
-10.1%
9.8%
3.2%
-7.5%
4.2%
0.7%
10.5%
8.1%
Var-Pmadesfase 1 ao
60.0%
40.0%
Var.EEPma
Var.Pet-EAI
20.0%
0.0%
-20.0%
-3%
-15%
-15%
-5%
-10%
-50%
27%
-22%
20%
15%
-21%
-3%
-15%
-3%
7%
19%
-17%
-35%
54%
44%
-25%
14%
10%
28%
34%
21%
-40.0%
PETROLEUM PRICE EIA-DOE

-60.0%
VARIACIN % DE PRECIOS PROMEDIOS DE LA ENERGA

ELCTRICA EN PANAM Y DEL PETRLEO CRUDO
IMPORTADO EN USA, 1998-2006
-10%
10%
3%
-8%
4%
1%
10%
8%
-2%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
PETROLEUM PRICE
0%
EIA-DOE September
-10%
2006 STEO-20%
-30%
-40%
Var.Pet-EAI
Var.Pet-EAI
Var-Pma-desfase 1 ao
199 199
8
9
-35% 54%
Var-Pma-desfase 1 ao -10% 10%
200 200 200

0
1
2
44% -25% 14%
200
3
10%
200
4
28%
200
5
34%
200
6
21%
200
7
-2%
3%
1%
10%
8%
-2%
0%
-8%
4%
11.3%
1/9/2015
CUADRO No. 18
PRONOSTICO DE PRECIOS DE LA ENERGIA
HIPOTESIS Se considera la expectativa de precios de referencia para el crudo por el EIA-DOE como optimista,
La proyeccion de precios Alta del crudo del EIA-DOE como insumo par la Proyeccion Pesimista.
Para la proyeccion de precios Moderada se promedian la proyeccion de precios del crudo a la alta y
la proyeccion de Referencia de EIA-DOE
PRECIOS DE LA ENERGA, SEGN ESCENARIOS
IMPORTED LOW -SULFUR LIGHT CRUDE OIL1 PRICE -EIA
Crude Oil Prices (2006 dollars per barrel)
AO
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
PROMEDIO DE PRECIOS ALTOS - PROMEDIO DE PRECIOS ALTOS - PROMEDIO DE PRECIOS BAJOS- VARIACIN
ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA
ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
ESCENARIO MODERADO (High
PR0MEDIO _
(High Price Oil)
Price Oil+Reference)/2
(Reference)
ESCENARIO
MODERADO
PRECIO
VARIACION
PRECIO
VARIACION
PRECIO
VARIACION
33.99
44.26
58.59
71.34
68.86
69.07
69.89
71.44
73.37
74.99
77.09
79.68
82.13
84.56
86.41
88.21
90.14
92.00
93.17
93.91
1.30
1.32
1.22
0.97
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.02
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.01
1.01
33.99
44.26
58.59
71.34
68.86
67.62
66.38
65.38
64.73
64.19
64.35
65.46
66.81
67.95
69.42
70.57
71.88
72.86
73.80
74.54
1.30
1.32
1.22
0.97
0.98
0.98
0.99
0.99
0.99
1.00
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.01
1.01
1.01
33.99
44.26
58.59
71.34
68.86
66.16
62.87
59.33
56.08
53.38
51.60
51.24
51.48
51.35
52.44
52.93
53.63
53.72
54.43
55.16
1.30
1.32
1.22
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.95
0.95
0.97
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.02
1.01
1.01
1.00
1.01
1.01
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.99
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.01
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.01
1.01
1.01
1/ Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners.

Anual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2008-2030
Report #: DOE/EIA-0383(2007)
Release Date: May 2007
Next Release Date: May 2008
Table 12. Petroleum Product Prices
18-Proyeccin Precios
1/9/2015
CUADRO No. 19
PROYECCION REAL DE PRECIOS DE LA ELECTRICIDAD (PRETOT)
Real USA
AO
PRETOT
HISTORICO
Variaciones reales de Precios USA

Reference case
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
High macroeconomic Low macroeconomic

growth
growth
VARACIONE DE PRECIOS REALES DEL

PRETOT
Var. Reales de PRETOT/Precios USA
Reference case
AO

growth
growth
9.48
8.52
9.35
9.65
8.94
9.46
9.62
10.62
11.49
11.53
13.21
11.06
PRONOSTICOS DE PRECIOS REALES

DEL PRETOT
Basado en Var. Precios Reales USA
Reference case

growth
growth
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
10.70
10.21
10.72
10.89
10.96
11.10
11.35
11.57
11.73
11.87
12.12
12.37
12.60
12.86
13.11
13.28
10.71
10.35
10.93
11.09
11.16
11.34
11.62
11.82
12.04
12.27
12.56
12.84
13.05
13.31
13.69
14.05
10.69
10.11
10.55
10.63
10.69
10.80
11.00
11.13
11.26
11.34
11.56
11.75
11.97
12.20
12.53
12.87
0.9674
0.9546
1.0493
1.0162
1.0062
1.0127
1.0232
1.0195
1.0137
1.0115
1.0209
1.0210
1.0185
1.0209
1.0191
1.0128
0.9681
0.9671
1.0559
1.0146
1.0061
1.0165
1.0248
1.0171
1.0180
1.0194
1.0233
1.0224
1.0164
1.0197
1.0291
1.0259
0.9669
0.9452
1.0440
1.0079
1.0057
1.0098
1.0190
1.0111
1.0121
1.0069
1.0193
1.0170
1.0183
1.0192
1.0269
1.0274
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
10.6972
10.2118
10.7156
10.8889
10.9563
11.0955
11.3531
11.5743
11.7331
11.8682
12.1168
12.3709
12.5995
12.8632
13.1089
13.2771
10.7054
10.3535
10.9326
11.0920
11.1591
11.3437
11.6244
11.8237
12.0364
12.2700
12.5563
12.8379
13.0490
13.3054
13.6923
14.0464
10.6915
10.1055
10.5504
10.6336
10.6939
10.7983
11.0036
11.1254
11.2596
11.3377
11.5565
11.7535
11.9688
12.1984
12.5264
12.8702
CUADRO No. 20
DEMANDA DE LA PROVINCIA DE BOCAS DEL TORO (CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN) Aos 2011 -2025
Estimado 2010 y Proyeccciones 2011 - 2025
BOFCO
AO
Pronostico AES - BOFCO
MWH
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
ESC. MODERADO (a)
75,278.5
79,076.0
80,262.1
81,466.1
82,688.1
83,928.4
85,292.1
86,571.5
87,870.1
89,188.1
90,526.0
93,609.0
93,749.4
95,507.6
97,299.1
99,124.6
GWh
75.28
79.08
80.26
81.47
82.69
83.93
85.29
86.57
87.87
89.19
90.53
93.61
93.75
95.51
97.30
99.12
Tasa
Anual
Crecimiento del consumo
TASAS (%)
GWh
BOFCO
TASAS (%)
5.04%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.62%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
3.41%
0.15%
1.88%
1.88%
1.88%
75.3
79.1
80.3
81.5
82.7
83.9
85.3
86.6
87.9
89.2
90.5
93.6
93.7
95.5
97.3
99.1
5.04%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.62%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
3.41%
0.15%
1.88%
1.88%
1.88%
1.85%
31.7%
1.85%
31.7%
ESC. OPTIMISTA (b)
ESC. PESIMISTA (c)
Ajuste
Ajuste
BOFCO + 5%
GWh
TASAS (%)
BOFCO -2. 5%
75.3
79.1
80.3
81.5
82.7
88.1
89.6
90.9
92.3
93.6
95.1
98.3
98.4
100.3
102.2
104.1
38.26%
5.04%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
6.57%
1.62%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%
3.41%
0.15%
1.88%
1.88%
1.88%
2.18%
GWh
TASAS (%)
75.3
79.1
80.3
81.5
82.7
81.8 83.2
84.4
85.7
87.0
88.3
91.3
91.4
93.1
94.9
96.6
28.39%
38.3%
5.04
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.04
1.62
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
3.41
0.15
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.68%
28.4%
(a) Corresponde a la suma de la demanda previstas por BOFCO y AES (Jul. 2010) en el Informe Indicativo de Demanda 2011-2031, del CND.
(b) Se considera un crecimiento adicional de 5% para el consumo previsto por BOFCO, a partir del ao 2015, a efecto de una expansin econmica
de la regin Bocatorea en concordancia con in impulso adicional al desarrrollo del pais.
(c) Se considera una contraccin de 2.5% en el consumo pronosticado por BOFCO, a partir del ao 2015, consecuente con un probable retroceso
en la economa global y sus consecuentes efectos en la economia del Pas y especificamente en la region.
HOJA: 20-Bloque = Bocas256838157.xls.ms_office
1/9/2015
CUADRO No. 21
DEMANDA CONSOLIDADA DEL SEGMENTO BLOQUE
(CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN)
Aos 2011 -2025

AO
ESC. MODERADO (a)

GWh
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Tasa
Anual
78.9
80.4
81.7
139.7
190.5
193.0
200.4
208.0
216.4
225.3
298.2
315.0
321.9
330.8
339.2
343.5
329.9%
TASAS (%)
ESC. OPTIMISTA (b)

GWh
1.3
78.9
80.4
81.7
141.1
190.8
200.5
215.7
224.3
290.2
304.5
321.3
333.3
340.2
343.5
346.9
351.3
10.30%
345.2%
1.9
1.5
71.0
36.4
1.3
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.1
32.4
5.6
2.2
2.8
2.5
TASAS (%)
ESC. PESIMISTA (c)

GWh
1.3
78.9
80.4
81.7
139.7
190.5
190.9
198.2
205.9
214.2
223.0
296.0
312.7
319.5
328.4
336.8
341.0
10.47%
332.2%
1.9
1.5
72.7
35.3
5.1
7.5
4.0
29.4
4.9
5.5
3.7
2.1
1.0
1.0
TASAS (%)
1.9
1.5
71.0
36.4
0.2
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.1
32.7
5.6
2.2
2.8
2.6
1.3
10.25%
(a) Corresponde a la suma de la demanda previstas en el Escenario Moderado de la Provincia de Bocas del Toro
mas los consumos previstos para los megaproyectos de infraestructura de la Ciudad de Panama hasta el ao 2025
(b) Corresponde a la suma de la demanda previstas en el Escenario Optimista de la Provincia de Bocas del Toro
(c) Corresponde a la suma de la demanda previstas en el Escenario Pesismista de la Provincia de Bocas del Toro
HOJA: 21-Bloque Consolidado256838157.xls.ms_office
1/9/2015
Aos 2011 -2025
PRONOSTICOS DE DEMANDA
ESCENARIOS
AOS 2011 - 2025
AOS
ENERGIA TOTAL (GWH)

MODERADO OPTIMISTA PESISMISTA
EET- MOD
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
6,753.7
7,307.1
7,705.5
8,116.2
8,631.3
9,184.6
9,753.5
10,339.9
10,954.4
11,617.8
12,261.8
13,018.2
13,718.5
14,450.6
15,236.0
16,119.3
17,016.5
EET- OPT
6,753.7
7,307.1
7,713.1
8,142.9
8,685.8
9,258.6
9,860.4
10,488.7
11,130.4
11,879.7
12,555.4
13,284.1
14,010.4
14,784.6
15,616.6
16,542.5
17,497.7
EET- PES
6,753.7
7,307.1
7,684.3
8,079.3
8,583.9
9,123.6
9,675.7
10,242.7
10,843.9
11,493.0
12,122.9
12,864.5
13,550.1
14,266.8
15,035.0
15,897.6
16,772.5
DEMANDA (MW)
MODERADO OPTIMISTA PESISMISTA
DMG- MOD
1,122.0
1,190.4
1,256.6
1,323.6
1,405.8
1,494.0
1,584.6
1,677.7
1,775.1
1,880.3
1,982.0
2,101.6
2,211.8
2,326.9
2,450.3
2,589.0
2,729.7
DMG- OPT
1,122.0
1,190.4
1,257.9
1,327.9
1,413.0
1,502.5
1,596.2
1,693.7
1,792.9
1,908.9
2,012.6
2,124.1
2,234.8
2,352.5
2,478.7
2,619.2
2,763.7
DMG- PES
1,122.0
1,190.4
1,253.2
1,317.6
1,398.1
1,484.1
1,571.9
1,661.9
1,757.2
1,860.1
1,959.5
2,076.8
2,184.7
2,297.3
2,417.9
2,553.4
2,690.5
CUADRO No. 23
PARTICIPACION SECTORIAL EN EL PRONOSTICO DE ENERGIA ELECTRICA DE PANAMA
ESCENARIO MEDIO
AOS 2011 -2025
ESCENARIO MEDIO
AO
GWHRES
Residencial
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.261
0.296
0.307
0.296
0.299
0.298
0.292
0.278
0.281
0.258
0.260
0.255
0.246
0.241
0.234
0.232
0.237
0.241
0.254
0.234
0.232
0.232
0.238
0.234
0.232
0.234
0.227
0.220
0.234
0.233
0.225
0.232
0.241
0.251
0.258
0.262
0.262
0.262
0.258
0.267
0.264
0.261
GWHCOM
Comercial
0.278
0.286
0.279
0.270
0.297
0.290
0.270
0.273
0.285
0.258
0.273
0.267
0.262
0.259
0.258
0.253
0.252
0.247
0.235
0.233
0.231
0.243
0.250
0.262
0.269
0.277
0.274
0.278
0.312
0.324
0.316
0.324
0.332
0.365
0.371
0.382
0.364
0.377
0.387
0.368
0.369
0.374
GWHIND
Industrial
0.120
0.129
0.117
0.113
0.109
0.109
0.096
0.088
0.097
0.094
0.105
0.101
0.107
0.100
0.103
0.105
0.104
0.111
0.096
0.097
0.101
0.111
0.122
0.128
0.126
0.127
0.123
0.111
0.114
0.117
0.102
0.096
0.084
0.060
0.060
0.060
0.084
0.082
0.079
0.083
0.089
0.084
GWHOFI
Oficial
GWHALU
GWHAUT
Alumbrao publico Autoconsumo
0.087
0.092
0.106
0.094
0.105
0.117
0.132
0.135
0.152
0.145
0.160
0.154
0.153
0.154
0.147
0.145
0.141
0.138
0.141
0.136
0.129
0.121
0.122
0.123
0.122
0.128
0.129
0.119
0.111
0.109
0.109
0.116
0.111
0.110
0.114
0.112
0.112
0.112
0.109
0.108
0.106
0.106
0.017
0.019
0.019
0.016
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.018
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.014
0.013
0.015
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.011
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.019
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.011
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0.258
0.252
0.246
0.241
0.236
0.231
0.226
0.222
0.216
0.212
0.208
0.204
0.199
0.195
0.380
0.384
0.387
0.392
0.397
0.402
0.407
0.414
0.419
0.425
0.431
0.437
0.441
0.446
0.081
0.078
0.077
0.078
0.079
0.080
0.080
0.081
0.082
0.082
0.082
0.082
0.082
0.083
0.106
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
LECTRICA DE PANAMA
2011 -2025
ARIO MEDIO
GWHBLQ
Bloque
0.104
0.060
0.040
0.061
0.016
0.012
0.029
0.065
0.016
0.074
0.009
0.025
0.025
0.061
0.044
0.043
0.036
0.033
0.045
0.027
0.026
0.020
0.009
0.005
0.014
0.004
0.007
0.023
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.011
0.010
GWHOTR
Otros
0.009
0.009
0.010
0.006
0.010
0.012
0.011
0.010
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.000
0.001
0.001
GWHPER
Perdidas
0.114
0.098
0.113
0.137
0.146
0.143
0.152
0.131
0.137
0.141
0.162
0.166
0.175
0.156
0.184
0.194
0.203
0.203
0.200
0.244
0.252
0.245
0.233
0.223
0.214
0.207
0.214
0.224
0.210
0.200
0.235
0.213
0.212
0.194
0.175
0.163
0.158
0.147
0.145
0.150
0.141
0.143
GWH
D%GWH
Energia
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
MW
Carga
7.0%
14.1%
3.6%
7.2%
4.4%
15.8%
3.6%
7.0%
13.2%
7.0%
4.7%
13.2%
3.5%
2.9%
9.9%
5.2%
6.5%
-0.8%
-5.2%
4.1%
5.2%
6.0%
4.5%
9.3%
4.7%
3.3%
10.4%
2.8%
3.9%
3.0%
8.0%
2.2%
3.0%
4.8%
2.3%
2.6%
5.4%
3.9%
8.4%
5.9%
5.6%
0.010
0.016
0.021
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.018
0.023
0.023
0.022
0.022
0.021
0.020
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.143
0.143
0.142
0.143
0.142
0.142
0.142
0.137
0.134
0.131
0.129
0.128
0.129
0.128
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
5.3%
6.2%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
5.8%
5.9%
5.4%
6.0%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.7%
5.4%
CUADRO No. 24
ESCENARIO ALTO
AOS 2011 -2025
ESCENARIO ALTO
AO
GWHRES
Residencial
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.261
0.296
0.307
0.296
0.299
0.298
0.292
0.278
0.281
0.258
0.260
0.255
0.246
0.241
0.234
0.232
0.237
0.241
0.254
0.234
0.232
0.232
0.238
0.234
0.232
0.234
0.227
0.220
0.234
0.233
0.225
0.232
0.241
0.251
0.258
0.262
0.262
0.262
0.258
0.267
0.264
0.261
0.257
GWHCOM
Comercial
0.278
0.286
0.279
0.270
0.297
0.290
0.270
0.273
0.285
0.258
0.273
0.267
0.262
0.259
0.258
0.253
0.252
0.247
0.235
0.233
0.231
0.243
0.250
0.262
0.269
0.277
0.274
0.278
0.312
0.324
0.316
0.324
0.332
0.365
0.371
0.382
0.364
0.377
0.387
0.368
0.369
0.374
0.381
GWHIND
Industrial
0.120
0.129
0.117
0.113
0.109
0.109
0.096
0.088
0.097
0.094
0.105
0.101
0.107
0.100
0.103
0.105
0.104
0.111
0.096
0.097
0.101
0.111
0.122
0.128
0.126
0.127
0.123
0.111
0.114
0.117
0.102
0.096
0.084
0.060
0.060
0.060
0.084
0.082
0.079
0.083
0.089
0.085
0.082
GWHOFI
Oficial
GWHALU
GWHAUT
Alumbrao publico
Autoconsumo
0.087
0.092
0.106
0.094
0.105
0.117
0.132
0.135
0.152
0.145
0.160
0.154
0.153
0.154
0.147
0.145
0.141
0.138
0.141
0.136
0.129
0.121
0.122
0.123
0.122
0.128
0.129
0.119
0.111
0.109
0.109
0.116
0.111
0.110
0.114
0.112
0.112
0.112
0.109
0.108
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.017
0.019
0.019
0.016
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.018
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.014
0.013
0.015
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.011
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.019
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.011
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0.251
0.245
0.238
0.233
0.227
0.221
0.217
0.212
0.208
0.204
0.199
0.194
0.190
0.384
0.387
0.391
0.395
0.400
0.403
0.410
0.416
0.422
0.428
0.433
0.437
0.442
0.079
0.078
0.080
0.082
0.083
0.083
0.084
0.085
0.086
0.086
0.087
0.088
0.088
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.104
0.104
0.104
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
LECTRICA DE PANAMA
S 2011 -2025
NARIO ALTO
GWHBLQ
Bloque
GWHOTR
Otros
0.104
0.060
0.040
0.061
0.016
0.012
0.029
0.065
0.016
0.074
0.009
0.025
0.025
0.061
0.044
0.043
0.036
0.033
0.045
0.027
0.026
0.020
0.009
0.005
0.014
0.004
0.007
0.023
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.011
0.010
0.010
GWHPER
Perdidas
0.009
0.009
0.010
0.006
0.010
0.012
0.011
0.010
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
GWH
Energia
0.114
0.098
0.113
0.137
0.146
0.143
0.152
0.131
0.137
0.141
0.162
0.166
0.175
0.156
0.184
0.194
0.203
0.203
0.200
0.244
0.252
0.245
0.233
0.223
0.214
0.207
0.214
0.224
0.210
0.200
0.235
0.213
0.212
0.194
0.175
0.163
0.158
0.147
0.145
0.150
0.141
0.143
0.143
D%GWH
MW
Carga
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7.0%
14.1%
3.6%
7.2%
4.4%
15.8%
3.6%
7.0%
13.2%
7.0%
4.7%
13.2%
3.5%
2.9%
9.9%
5.2%
6.5%
-0.8%
-5.2%
4.1%
5.2%
6.0%
4.5%
9.3%
4.7%
3.3%
10.4%
2.8%
3.9%
3.0%
8.0%
2.2%
3.0%
4.8%
2.3%
2.6%
5.4%
3.9%
8.4%
5.9%
5.7%
5.6%
0.016
0.021
0.020
0.021
0.020
0.024
0.024
0.024
0.024
0.023
0.022
0.021
0.020
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.143
0.143
0.144
0.144
0.144
0.143
0.139
0.136
0.134
0.132
0.132
0.133
0.133
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
6.4%
6.3%
6.2%
6.1%
5.9%
6.5%
5.4%
5.5%
5.2%
5.3%
5.4%
5.7%
5.5%
CUADRO No. 25
ESCENARIO BAJO
AOS 2011 -2025
ESCENARIO BAJO
AO
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
GWHRES
GWHCOM
GWHIND
GWHOFI
Residencial
Comercial
Industrial
Oficial
0.261
0.296
0.307
0.296
0.299
0.298
0.292
0.278
0.281
0.258
0.260
0.255
0.246
0.241
0.234
0.232
0.237
0.241
0.254
0.234
0.232
0.232
0.238
0.234
0.232
0.234
0.227
0.220
0.234
0.233
0.225
0.232
0.241
0.251
0.258
0.262
0.262
0.262
0.258
0.267
0.264
0.262
0.259
0.278
0.286
0.279
0.270
0.297
0.290
0.270
0.273
0.285
0.258
0.273
0.267
0.262
0.259
0.258
0.253
0.252
0.247
0.235
0.233
0.231
0.243
0.250
0.262
0.269
0.277
0.274
0.278
0.312
0.324
0.316
0.324
0.332
0.365
0.371
0.382
0.364
0.377
0.387
0.368
0.369
0.374
0.380
0.120
0.129
0.117
0.113
0.109
0.109
0.096
0.088
0.097
0.094
0.105
0.101
0.107
0.100
0.103
0.105
0.104
0.111
0.096
0.097
0.101
0.111
0.122
0.128
0.126
0.127
0.123
0.111
0.114
0.117
0.102
0.096
0.084
0.060
0.060
0.060
0.084
0.082
0.079
0.083
0.089
0.084
0.081
GWHALU
GWHAUT
Alumbrao publico Autoconsumo
0.087
0.092
0.106
0.094
0.105
0.117
0.132
0.135
0.152
0.145
0.160
0.154
0.153
0.154
0.147
0.145
0.141
0.138
0.141
0.136
0.129
0.121
0.122
0.123
0.122
0.128
0.129
0.119
0.111
0.109
0.109
0.116
0.111
0.110
0.114
0.112
0.112
0.112
0.109
0.108
0.106
0.106
0.106
0.017
0.019
0.019
0.016
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.018
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.016
0.015
0.014
0.013
0.015
0.016
0.015
0.015
0.015
0.011
0.016
0.015
0.018
0.019
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.011
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0.253
0.248
0.243
0.238
0.233
0.228
0.224
0.218
0.214
0.210
0.206
0.201
0.197
0.383
0.387
0.392
0.397
0.402
0.408
0.415
0.419
0.426
0.432
0.437
0.442
0.448
0.077
0.076
0.077
0.078
0.078
0.078
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.079
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.105
0.106
0.106
0.105
0.106
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
LECTRICA DE PANAMA
S 2011 -2025
NARIO BAJO
GWHBLQ
GWHOTR
GWHPER
GWH
Bloque
Otros
Perdidas
Energia
0.104
0.060
0.040
0.061
0.016
0.012
0.029
0.065
0.016
0.074
0.009
0.025
0.025
0.061
0.044
0.043
0.036
0.033
0.045
0.027
0.026
0.020
0.009
0.005
0.014
0.004
0.007
0.023
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.011
0.010
0.010
0.009
0.009
0.010
0.006
0.010
0.012
0.011
0.010
0.011
0.009
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.008
0.007
0.006
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.114
0.098
0.113
0.137
0.146
0.143
0.152
0.131
0.137
0.141
0.162
0.166
0.175
0.156
0.184
0.194
0.203
0.203
0.200
0.244
0.252
0.245
0.233
0.223
0.214
0.207
0.214
0.224
0.210
0.200
0.235
0.213
0.212
0.194
0.175
0.163
0.158
0.147
0.145
0.150
0.141
0.143
0.143
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
D%GWH
MW
Carga
7.0%
14.1%
3.6%
7.2%
4.4%
15.8%
3.6%
7.0%
13.2%
7.0%
4.7%
13.2%
3.5%
2.9%
9.9%
5.2%
6.5%
-0.8%
-5.2%
4.1%
5.2%
6.0%
4.5%
9.3%
4.7%
3.3%
10.4%
2.8%
3.9%
3.0%
8.0%
2.2%
3.0%
4.8%
2.3%
2.6%
5.4%
3.9%
8.4%
5.9%
5.3%
5.1%
0.016
0.021
0.020
0.019
0.019
0.019
0.018
0.023
0.023
0.022
0.022
0.021
0.020
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.143
0.142
0.143
0.142
0.142
0.142
0.137
0.134
0.131
0.129
0.128
0.129
0.128
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
6.1%
6.2%
5.9%
5.7%
5.7%
5.9%
5.3%
6.0%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.6%
5.4%
Demanda MAXIMA DE GENERACION por Participante, Consumidor y Por Barra 2011-2025 (MW)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
ENSA
Santa Mara
BLM
France Field
Tocumen
Chilibre
Cerro Viento
Monte Oscuro
Geehan
Tinajitas
Total
77.17
49.03
55.89
47.56
47.17
83.63
50.93
14.02
35.83
461.23
79.96
50.80
57.91
49.28
48.87
86.65
52.77
14.53
37.12
477.90
82.35
52.32
59.64
50.75
50.33
89.24
54.35
14.96
38.23
492.17
88.33
56.12
63.98
54.44
53.99
95.73
58.30
16.05
41.01
527.94
94.14
59.81
68.18
58.02
57.54
102.02
62.13
17.11
43.71
562.64
99.04
62.92
71.73
61.03
60.53
107.32
65.36
17.99
45.98
591.90
105.09
66.77
76.11
64.76
64.23
113.89
69.35
19.10
48.79
628.08
111.43
70.79
80.70
68.67
68.10
120.76
73.54
20.25
51.73
665.97
118.63
75.37
85.92
73.10
72.50
128.56
78.29
21.55
55.07
708.99
125.24
79.57
90.71
77.18
76.54
135.72
82.65
22.76
58.14
748.51
133.34
84.71
96.57
82.17
81.49
144.50
88.00
24.23
61.90
796.91
140.58
89.31
101.82
86.63
85.92
152.35
92.77
25.54
65.27
840.20
148.14
94.12
107.29
91.29
90.54
160.54
97.76
26.92
68.78
885.37
156.24
99.26
113.16
96.28
95.49
169.31
103.11
28.39
72.53
933.77
164.78
104.69
119.34
101.55
100.71
178.57
108.74
29.94
76.50
984.81
173.78
110.41
125.87
107.10
106.21
188.33
114.69
31.58
80.68
1038.65
EDEMET
Locera
Maran
San Francisco
Centro Bancario
Llano Sanchez 115
Llano Sanchez 34
Las Guias
Chorrera 34
Miraflores 44
Balboa 44
Summit 44
Gamboa 44
Agua Clara 44
Total
95.61
109.09
98.06
78.45
106.56
0.25
20.54
64.60
17.98
16.19
1.78
2.70
2.70
614.49
99.06
113.03
101.60
81.28
110.41
0.25
21.28
66.94
18.63
16.78
1.84
2.79
2.79
636.70
102.02
116.41
104.64
83.71
113.71
0.26
21.92
68.94
19.19
17.28
1.90
2.88
2.88
655.71
109.44
124.87
112.24
89.79
121.97
0.28
23.51
73.95
20.58
18.53
2.03
3.09
3.09
703.38
116.63
133.08
119.62
95.70
129.99
0.30
25.06
78.81
21.94
19.75
2.17
3.29
3.29
749.61
122.69
140.00
125.84
100.67
136.75
0.31
26.36
82.91
23.08
20.78
2.28
3.46
3.46
788.58
130.19
148.55
133.53
106.83
145.11
0.33
27.97
87.98
24.49
22.05
2.42
3.67
3.67
836.79
138.05
157.52
141.59
113.27
153.86
0.35
29.66
93.28
25.96
23.38
2.57
3.89
3.89
887.27
146.96
167.69
150.73
120.59
163.80
0.38
31.57
99.31
27.64
24.89
2.73
4.15
4.15
944.58
155.16
177.04
159.13
127.31
172.93
0.40
33.33
104.84
29.18
26.28
2.88
4.38
4.38
997.23
165.19
188.49
169.43
135.54
184.11
0.42
35.49
111.62
31.07
27.98
3.07
4.66
4.66
1061.73
174.16
198.72
178.63
142.90
194.11
0.45
37.42
117.69
32.76
29.50
3.24
4.91
4.91
1119.39
183.53
209.41
188.23
150.59
204.55
0.47
39.43
124.02
34.52
31.08
3.41
5.18
5.18
1179.58
193.56
220.86
198.52
158.82
215.73
0.50
41.59
130.79
36.40
32.78
3.60
5.46
5.46
1244.06
204.14
232.93
209.37
167.50
227.52
0.52
43.86
137.94
38.39
34.57
3.79
5.76
5.76
1312.06
215.30
245.66
220.82
176.65
239.96
0.55
46.26
145.48
40.49
36.46
4.00
6.07
6.07
1383.79
EDECHI
Mata de Nance 34
Progreso
Total
67.98
13.48
81.46
70.44
13.97
84.41
72.54
14.39
86.93
77.81
15.43
93.24
82.93
16.45
99.37
87.24
17.30
104.54
92.57
18.36
110.93
98.15
19.47
117.62
104.49
20.73
125.22
110.32
21.88
132.20
117.45
23.30
140.75
123.83
24.56
148.40
130.49
25.88
156.37
137.63
27.30
164.92
145.15
28.79
173.94
153.08
30.36
183.44
1485.02
1575.81
1670.86
1778.78
1877.94
1999.39
2107.99
2221.33
2342.75
2480.44
2621.09
TOTAL DIST.
1157.18
1199.01
1234.81
1324.56
1411.63
CEMENTO PANAMA
8.05
8.23
8.23
8.23
8.23
8.23
8.26
8.26
8.26
8.26
8.26
8.26
8.26
8.26
8.26
8.26
PTP (Ch. Grande)
20.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37.00
37
37
37
CHANGUINOLA
11.00
12.86
13.39
13.95
14.54
15.15
15.80
16.48
17.20
17.95
18.75
19.56
20.40
21.28
21.28
21.28
TOTAL DEMANDA
Prdidas Trans. MW
Prdidas Trans. %
TOTAL GENERACIN
1,196.23
25.77
2.11%
1,222.00
1,257.10
31.70
2.46%
1,288.80
1,293.43
64.07
4.72%
1,357.50
1,383.74
59.16
4.10%
1,442.90
1,471.39
62.91
4.10%
1,534.30
1,545.41
83.39
5.12%
1,628.80
1,636.87
88.33
5.12%
1,725.20
1,732.60
93.50
5.12%
1,826.10
1,841.24
99.36
5.12%
1,940.60
1,941.15
104.75
5.12%
2,045.90
2,063.40
96.10
4.45%
2,159.50
2,172.81
101.19
4.45%
2,274.00
2,286.99
106.51
4.45%
2,393.50
2,409.29
112.21
4.45%
2,521.50
2,546.98
118.62
4.45%
2,665.60
2,687.63
125.17
4.45%
2,812.80

Anexo I 3

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Anexo I 3

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PLAN DE EXPANSIN 2011-2025

INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO A LOS TRABAJOS DE AMPLICACION DEL

INCREMENTO DE POBLACIN ASOCIADO AL TURISMO RESIDENCIAL

ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA: IMPACTO POBLACIONAL POR AMPLIACION DEL CANAL +

PRONSTICO DEL PIB 2009, TENDENCIAL HISTRICO- (Millones de B/. 1996)

PIB ESTIMADO AL 2010, SEGN ESCENARIO, DIVISION Y ACTIVIDAD ECONOMICA

ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES DEL PRODUCTO INTERNO

ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO

RESUMEN DE TASAS DE CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB, SEGN ESCENARIOS

ANLISIS DEL FACTOR DE CARGA Y PROYECCIN LINEAL

PREMISAS DE PROYECCIN DE PRDIDAS DE ENERGA

EVOLUCIN DE PRECIOS DE LA ELECTRICIDAD

PROYECCION REAL DEL PRETOT

DEMANDA DE LA PROVINCIA DE BOCAS DEL TORO (CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN)

DEMANDA CONSOLIDADA DEL SEGMENTO BLOQUE (CARGA INTEGRADA AL SIN)

RESUMEN DE PRONOSTICOS DE DEMANDA

PARTICIPACION POR SECTOR - ESCENARIO MEDIO

PARTICIPACION POR SECTOR - ESCENARIO ALTO

PARTICIPACION POR SECTOR - ESCENARIO BAJO

DEMANDA MAXIMA DE GENERACION , POR PARTICIPANTE CONSUMIDOR Y POR

CASO ESCENARIO OPTIMISTA

CASO DE IMPACTO OPTIMISTA

Poblacin rural masculinaPoblacin rural femenina

Poblacin urbana masculina

CELADE 1950-1999 & CGR

CELADE 1950-1999 & CGR

PROYECCION DE POBLACION TOTAL POR AO CALENDARIO,

VARIACION DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION TOTAL

SEGN CUATRO HIPOTESIS DE CRECIMIENTO

SEGN CUATRO HIPOTESIS DE CRECIMIENTO

PERIODO 2010 2010- 20

PERIODO 2010 2010- 20

Extracto del proyeccion de Poblacion Total, Cuadro No. 19

IPC anual de Panam (1987 =

PRONOSTICO DEL PIB TENDENCIAL HISTORICO

PRONSTICO DEL PIB 2008, TENDENCIAL HISTRICO- (Millones de B/. 1996)

1. Agricultura, silvicultura y caza

TASA DE CRECIMIENTO ANUAL

Direccin de Estadisticas y Censo, Panam en Cifras 2002-06

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022 CCB

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 6-PIB 2010, tres metodologas

PRONOSTICO DEL PIB TENDENCIAL HISTORICO

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022 CCB

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 6-PIB 2010, tres metodologas

ESCENARIOS DE VARIACION DEL PIB EN EL 2011

1. Agricultura, silvicultura y caza

VARIACION ANUAL AO 2011 BASADA EN LA TASA ACUMULADA ANUAL DE REFERENCIA (1)

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022 CCB

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 7-PIB Estructural 2011 Mod

ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES DEL PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO

Producto Interno Bruto 2010 de 6.78% (2)

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 8-Estimacion PIB 2011-2025

EMPALME DE BASES 1996

ESTUDIO DE LA DE DEMANDA 2009-2023

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 9-Empalme de Bases 96-82 11-25

ESTIMADOS DE MONTOS Y VARIACIONES ANUALES DE LA ACTIVIDAD DE

Producto Interno Bruto 2010 de 6.78% (2)

(En miles de Balboas)

(En miles de Balboas)

(En miles de Balboas)

ESTUDIO BASICO DE LA DEMANDA 2008-2022

256838157.xls.ms_office/ 10Est. PIB MANUFACTURA ACP96-11