Professional Documents
Culture Documents
In the late 1980's, the real estate market in the Southwestern part of the US collapsed. As many
of my friends and business associates were experiencing the inevitable catastrophic aftermath of
one of the greatest real estate booms in the history of mankind, we collectively decided to record
a log of lessons each of us learned.
We had made scores of millions in the preceding 6-7 years and subsequently had successfully
lost every last penny we had, and then some. We truly had unmanageable debt loads, no cash or
cash flow and personal liability which far exceeded the market value of our assets.
Of even greater significance was the hit our egos had taken. We had our identity wrapped up in
our financial success. When the success vaporized, so did our sense of who we were and what
our place was.
We were anxious to get this phase of our careers behind us, lick our wounds and get on with our
lives, but we instinctively knew that if we weren't careful, we would repeat the errors which
caused the problem to begin with. We wanted to make sure that we accumulated twenty years of
experience and not one year's worth of experience twenty times. Without learning the lessons,
we would be doomed to repeat them, which was an unacceptable outcome given the pain we
were in.
Historians will tell you that history may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. The economic
reality of 2008-09 has many of the same characteristics of 1989-1991. Imagine over 3,500 banks
disappearing in a four year time period, which is what happened in the late 1980's verses fewer
than 100 banks in the current meltdown. Imagine commercial property being sold for 20% of
replacement cost and rents for Class A office buildings being less than the taxes/insurance and
Common Area Maintenance fees. This was our reality in 1989.
We wanted to be certain that we NEVER had to experience this kind of disaster again. The
thinking was NOT that we could somehow control the economy or interest rates.... We can't. But
what we could control was the thinking and strategies that allowed us to get caught in the
tsunami in the first place.
As you read the lessons collected twenty years ago, you might be tempted to say this doesn't
apply to me because I'm not in the real estate business. I can assure you the lessons are
applicable regardless of the industry. You might be tempted to think these lessons don't apply
because you didn't really have any debt or investments during this current crisis. The best time to
learn the lessons is prior to making the mistakes.
Interestingly, most of us avoided repeating these mistakes in the ensuing 20 years.... Not because
we were smart, but because the pain of the lessons twenty years ago was severe enough that we
disciplined ourselves to avoid using our emotions to make what should be intellectual decisions.
We established a set of rules and followed them maniacally.
Herewith are a few of my favorite lessons on Financing as collected during the week of May 23,
1989....
Strategy
Emotions, when mixed with unbridled greed, produce economic disasters.
Land eats three meals per day.
A good market tends to hide mistakes. Nothing takes the place of being actively engaged in
the running of your business and being thoughtful as well as skeptical about the future.
Doing a marginal deal to keep the staff busy is stupid. Do not do marginal deals.
Last week's marketing report has absolutely nothing to do with where the market is headed,
what the economy is doing or what the demand will be next year.
How you run your business during the good times is the only true predictor of how well your
business will cope with the bad times.
You must keep a conservative strategy during the good times because you generally don't
know you're in a bad time until it's too late.
No team has ever won the game with an 'offense only' strategy. Great teams, the ones who win
championship rings, all have fantastic defenses.
Not all progress is measured by ground gained.... Sometimes progress is measured by losses
avoided.
True wealth is built slowly. Speed and greed necessitate aggressive leverage and increase the
odds of catastrophe.
It is better to go slower and avoid the do-over's.
The successful people we admire are not the ones who made it.... We admire the ones who
kept it.
Partners MUST be hands on and involved in every aspect of the business.
Do not be afraid to say, "NO!". Too many deals got done because it was easier to say yes.
It is a mistake to believe the quality of our people and the quality of our projects can overcome
a bad market. Our occupancy is 30% above market, our rental rates are 50% above market and
we are still 75% below pro-forma.
Litigation is expensive, time consuming and to be avoided.
The best way to avoid losses and to stay financially healthy is to "sell too soon." The old real
estate maxim of, "In the history of the world, the seller is always wrong" is outrageously stupid!
Don't fall into the trap of believing you can get more for it tomorrow. Regardless of which
direction the market is moving, never hesitate to sell for a fair price today.
Never buy something because you think you might need it someday. Have a definite purpose
or use in mind TODAY!
Keep working all your alternatives until something closes.
Putting all your energy and focus on one lender or one buyer or one tenant is a disaster if the
one you were focused on disappears.
Success does not make you invincible or bullet proof.
What success does best is it makes you complacent and egotistical, which by themselves are
sufficient to create disaster.
The euphoria of a hot market usually results in ignoring marketplace fundamentals.
Prudently gathering and evaluating market based economic information is the only
prescription for avoiding smoking your own exhaust.
Never delay taking corrective action once the problem has been recognized. Hoping for better
conditions in the future so the problem will solve itself is a fool's game.
Failure to recognize reality is delusional. You might be smarter and better than your
competition, but when the market shifts, you're still broke. Don't confuse ability with economic
reality.
Never rely on only your consultant's recommendations....
Do the study and analysis yourself based on your familiarity with the market.... If you don't
have the familiarity, don't do the deal.
A lack of rules and discipline caused every mistake we made.
We did not run our business as a business, but rather as a series of discrete events which we
assumed had little bearing on each other. We did not pay attention to the aggregate fundamentals
of the business.
We did not narrow our focus when we knew times were getting worse. This was due to two
things: 1. The distraction of our prior track record and 2. A lack of maturity necessary to
drawback and review the situation with a discerning eye and thus gain control of our direction.
A small percentage of a large number is a large number.
Deals
Just because rents have gone up 5% per year for the last 5 years doesn't mean they can't go
down 25% in one year.
Lease first, then build.
Control your inventory.
The easiest sale is to another salesman.
Have an ongoing asset disposition program in good markets. Sell something.... Not every asset
or building can be a core holding.
Sell when the market is good because when the market is bad, there are NO buyers... at any
price.
Holding off on selling based on last year's prices or what your pro-forma said is stupid.
Do not follow the market down.... Lead the market. Make cuts quickly.
Work renewals hard and early.
Beware of tenants with good stories.... Be skeptical.
Don't let what your competition is doing influence your decisions.
Do what you think is right based on the facts. You can't erect a fence to keep the competition
out.
It's better to start a building two months late and miss a deal than to start it two months early
and face a shrinking market.
Secondary locations can sit empty no matter how low rates go.
No credit, no deal.
New projects must be based on current rooftops and existing infrastructure, not future
population growth.
Do not inventory land at retail prices for future projects. A 20% increase in land price is only a
2-3% increase in total project cost.
Do fewer deals and do them better. You can be more profitable by having more time to focus
on the few and you get the added benefit of keeping overhead low.
Too many deals dilute time and attention away from the good ones.
It takes 5 good deals to make up for one bad deal.
When a bad deal surfaces, 90% of management's time is siphoned off from the rest of the
business to deal with the problems of the bad deal. The result: The bad one is still bad and the
good ones are now mediocre or troubled as a result of a lack of attention. 90% of management's
time should be spent on nurturing the good ones. Easy to say, hard to do.
The first markdown in price is the smallest. The mistake is to hold off on selling at today's
prices in the belief the market will come back.
Financing
Debt gives the illusion of wealth. True wealth is assets, cash flow and no debt.
Doing a marginal deal just because the money is available is stupid.
Take your personal guarantee seriously.... You only bring two things to the table.... Cash and
your guarantee, neither of which has an unlimited supply.
Don't rely on inflation to make a deal work.
Never finance long-term assets with short-term debt.
We covered a lot of mistakes with access to easy money and credit.
Easy credit, lots of liquidity and too much money makes you stupid.
A knack for innovative financing, a little bit of money and unbridled greed will produce truly
crippling debt.
Personnel
Bench strength is critical. Hiring weak people begets weak results. Find the best people and
compensate them VERY well. It saves money in the long run.
The tougher the times, the better the people you need. There is no way to survive a bad market
with weak people.
Mediocre people are easy to hire and difficult to fire.
Always be upgrading your talent and never be afraid to pay them what they need to make.
Any fool can make money in the good times.
One superstar is of greater value than an unlimited number of mediocre performers.
Never wait to address personnel issues or mediocre performance.
Either they are doing a great job, or they arent. If they arent, take action. My job isnt to
babysit or beg people to do their jobs.
The cost of being long suffering with an incapable or misplaced employee is far greater than
the discomfort of having a tough evaluation and speedy termination.
A culture rooted in past successes, growth at all costs and aggressive bonus structures will
produce employees who dont think, who arent skeptical and who ignore risks.
Overhead
Stay lean even if you can afford to get fat. Keep overhead low!
Watch your cash VERY closely. Ask yourself, Do I really need this?... Will this help me
make more money? Once you spend it, the cash is gone.
Each line item of your financials should be scrutinized on a continuous basis to make.
Conserve cash, especially during the good times. Spending money to look like a big deal is not
the same as being a big deal.
When youre out of cash, youre out of business. Cash is truly KING.
When the market shifts, you cant cut overhead fast enough.
It is easy to over pay or beef up when the world is viewed from only an upside perspective.
Cut overhead early and hard. Pride and hubris kept us from cutting our overhead in a timely
manner.
Fancy offices, hot cars, lots of staff and high overhead are signs of significance, not success.
Knowing your numbers, what it costs to run each aspect of your business and having timely
information, is critical to success.
Focus on the costs of doing business and not just the revenue potential.
Bringing consultants/outside services in house (architects, land planners, engineers etc) is a
bad idea. The temptation is to look for busy work to justify the overhead and when the market
shifts, they are expensive to cut. Contract out as much of the work as possible
Mann Gulch
This is a great story with a terrific message for each of us.
In 1949, thirteen of sixteen men died battling a relatively small blaze that turned deadly in Mann
Gulch. Upon investigating the circumstances of why most of the smoke jumpers died while three
lived, Norman Maclean wrote a book entitled Young Men and Fire, which is the true story of the
smoke jumpers, (firefighters who parachute into the back country to fight fires in Montana).
Maclean found some startling facts. Mann Gulch is surrounded by steep canyon walls with the
northern slope at a 75% incline. When the wind turned on the smoke jumpers, they were in a race
with the fire up those steep walls. Also, most forest fires feed off dry grass, but the north slope of
Mann Gulch was mostly tall grass. Unexpectedly, the fire started to spread much faster than
anticipated.
One of the amazing things the author discovered was that the thirteen who died had carried their
tools heavy poleaxes, saws, shovels, as well as very heavy back packs while attempting to
out run the fire up those steep walls. In other words, the thirteen had run as far as they could with
all their equipment, even though that equipment was worse than useless in a race with the fire.
Their inability to drop their heavy tools and packs ultimately prevented them from outrunning
the fire. To these firefighters, their tools were more than simple objects, they represented who
they were, why they were there and what they were trained to do. Dropping their tools meant
abandoning their existing knowledge, training and experience.
This might not seem like a hard choice to make, but because they hadnt been trained for such a
moment, they had no alternative models for behavior. In moments of uncertainty and danger,
clinging to the old right way might seem like a good idea, but it is usually deadly.
The three survivors of the blaze were forced to think outside the box and use alternative methods
of escaping the fire. Once they figured out they were no longer fighting the fire and instead
trying to escape from it, they realized they had to drop all of their useless equipment. One
survivor used a technique called the escape fire where he took a match and lit a ring around
him so that the fire would "jump" over him. When he tried to suggest it to the other men they
continued running up the steep slope because the 'escape fire' technique had not been part of their
training. It was their inability to drop the tools and equipment that werent working and seek new
methods to help them escape that lead to the fire fatally engulfing them.
The question is this: What are the poleaxes, shovels and backpacks youre running with? What
are the tired, worn out strategies and tools which you are lugging around with you? What
existing models of behavior do you need to drop? What existing knowledge, training or
experience needs to be abandoned?
A worldwide financial fire is raging and what got you here wont get you there. The people who
learn the critical business skills and tools necessary to survive and even thrive will be the
winners in all this. But, this has always been true. Survivors and successful people are always
learning and practicing to improve their game. New circumstances always require new skills and
tools. The alternative is suffering and death.
Core Competence
It is so easy to make money when times are good, the wind is at your back and the tide is rising.
In fact, for most people, the more they make the smarter they seem to become, venturing into all
kinds of investments and side businesses which have nothing to do with what made them
successful in the first place. As one of my teachers told me years ago, Success breeds
complacency and never has this degree of complacency been more evident than the perfect
storm we are witnessing in our credit markets today.
I was reading about Citigroups recent meltdown. Now here is a HUGE financial institution (the
largest in the United States) who somehow took all their expertise and financial acumen and
turned it into a mind numbing loss of $18.1 Billion of write-downs for the 4th quarter 2007 and
an additional $15.2 Billion of write downs in the first quarter of 2008. The real damage was to
the shareholders, who have lost a total of $530 Billion in shareholder value in less than a year! I
dont care who you are, that is serious money!
Citi has the good fortune to be able to raise money when things dont turn out as expected, so
they have tapped a couple of Saudi princes and the Singapore government for $30 billion or so.
Forty thousand people are expected to lose their jobs before this carnage is finished, including
the former CEO who got them into this mess by not paying attention to the risks they were
taking. Apparently, the thinking was that if it made money today, who cares about the risks or
what could go wrong let the good times roll, baby! And roll they did, until they stopped.
In a recent interview, the new CEO of Citi, Vikram Pandit made a startling announcement. He
said Citi would divest themselves of businesses that did not fit with the rest of the group. Were
getting out of all our hobbies and focusing on our core competence.
This is without a doubt one of the smartest things Ive heard a Fortune 500 executive say in 25
years! The reality is sticking your nose or your pocketbook into things you know very little about
is a prescription for disaster.
As Warren Buffett has said:
The greatest personal fortunes in this country werent built on a portfolio of 50 companies.
Thats the Noahs Ark way of investing. They were built on one wonderful business. Almost
without exception, when they strayed from that wonderful business that made them rich, they
ended up losing money.
Too often I see great plans and solutions which never get executed, and thus the goals never
reached, because they are based on the elegance of the strategy and not on the reality of skills
and time needed to execute the strategy selected.
Prior to selecting any solution to a situation in need of improvement, check out your assumptions
about what you are really capable of doing and then design a solution that is consistent with your
skills.
The only solution worth implementing is the one which is sustainable!
not, why wait to do it perfectly "someday?" Why not start today and do it imperfectly and see
what results you start getting? Anything worth doing is worth doing POORLY!
To start a business based on the desire to become financially free is a huge mistake and a
prescription for disaster. The wealthiest people on the planet did not start out saying their goal
was financial freedom or retirement because if they had, they would have stopped long ago. The
10 wealthiest people on the planet are all still working not just 40 hours per week, either. Bill
Gates, Michael Dell, Warren Buffett, Larry Ellison etc are all still regularly logging 60/70/80
hour weeks. Not one of them is concerned with financial freedom or retirement.
You see, retirement is simply doing what you want, when you want to do it. Each of the Forbes
400 is doing that. They have all retired INTO their jobs and companies. They have all fallen
in love with the CAUSE. They are passionate not because of what they are doing, but because of
how they are doing it. They are growing and contributing and focused on solutions, which means
they are excited and excitement comes not from what you do, but rather how you do it.
Remember, its never about what you do, but rather how you do it.
If the pursuit of financial freedom seems difficult or if the sole reason you are pursuing it is
because of a desire to "do something else", why not start doing some of that something else
today? Why not fall in love with what you are doing and retire into your job or company and
give yourself to it 100% and see what it gives back to you.
But, most importantly, remember to keep your life in perspective. This lifetime is not solely
about getting to financial freedom but rather to live it so that at the end you can say, "This was
my life. I am proud of it and I would gladly live it again if given the chance!"
cannot be passive and expect the merry-go-round to keep going. If you ever decide to completely
stop pushing the handle bars, the merry-go-round will stop.
The distinction I`m making is this: passive anything is a bad goal and a bad thought because it
requires us to fall into the trap of thinking that by doing nothing we can get what we want. A
much better thought is "Leveraged Income." Now, that is a word I can get excited about. If I am
focused on leveraged income, then I am focused on having my money make money; I am
focused on using OPM (Other People`s Money); I am focused on OPB (Other People`s Brains); I
am focused on OPN (Other People`s Networks). I am active and involved when I am leveraging.
I`m playing smart. I`m using my brain to achieve my goals. I am active in the process of
leveraging. I am not focused on doing nothing, on being passive. Instead, I`m focused on how do
I take the resources I have and grow them most efficiently and effectively.
When you stop to really look at the most financially successful people on the planet Bill
Gates, Warren Buffett, Michael Dell, Richard Branson, Larry Ellison you will not find any of
them doing passive. They are all active, but they are leveraged. Furthermore, none of them
started their businesses because they were looking for passive income or financial freedom. If
they had, they wouldn`t be the success they are today.
Success in any endeavor requires you to be active. Nothing you want is attained by being
passive, including wealth and income. The seductive siren`s song of "passive" income is one of
the reasons so few people have the wealth they want. Rethink your goal and how you can
achieve it. Start looking for ways to leverage yourself and your money. You will be stunned by
the difference it makes in your life and in the obtainment of your goals.
Obviously, at some point in the development of the child, babysitters, grandparents and nannies
can enter the picture and later the child can begin to become more self sustaining. But, at the
beginning, neither the parent nor the entrepreneur will have more time.
Recently I was talking to a very powerful and prominent business tycoon about the struggles
many entrepreneurs seem to have with the mindset it takes to be successful in business. He told
me that he was recently speaking at a conference for about 500 MBA students at the local
university about his success and one student asked him this question: "You have so much money
($20 Billion) and you have the ability to do whatever you want with your life, why not just quit,
buy a boat and spend the rest of your life sailing around the Caribbean and enjoying your self
and your wealth and your life?" My very rich friend said he told the student, "I have tried sailing
and do you know how boring that can be? What could be more fun than running a Fortune 500
company?"
The reason this man has the wealth he does is because he is NOT looking for Financial Freedom,
he is NOT enamored with the idea of Passive Income and he is NOT trying to figure out how to
get More Time. As I said in the first installment in this series, the most successful people I know
have all retired into their businesses and jobs.
I had a student last year who told me, "If I ever make $5 million, I`d call it quits." I told her,
"That`s why you will never make $5 million."
People who are successful in life do not wake up one day and call it quits. The ones who are
wanting to call it quits are the ones who will never have anything to quit in the first place.
The hardest part of achieving abundance in any aspect of your life, including money or
relationships or health or spirituality, is getting your mind right going into it and doing it for the
right reasons. Daydreaming about Financial Freedom, Passive Income and More Time is a
fantasy and a prescription for disaster! Success does not come to those who look for the easiest
way or who want to quit.
I will close this article with a quote from Douglas MacArthur, "Age wrinkles the skin. Quitting
wrinkles the soul."
Successful people tend to fall in love with pleasing results, while unsuccessful people tend to fall
in love with pleasing methods. If you dont fall in love with the Cause, you will wake up every
morning dreading doing the things that will result in the Effects you desire, and I dont know
anyone who can sustain themselves doing what they hate for more than a couple of weeks. If you
do decide to fall in love with the Causes that will produce the Effects you want, you will achieve
your goals much faster because we all perform better when we enjoy what were doing.
Re-look at your goals and resolutions from the viewpoint of Cause and Effect. Are you slowing
down because you are not seeing instantaneous results? Are you waking up in the morning
dreading doing the things that will produce the results you want? If so, ask yourself these
questions:
Do I believe I can make this goal come true?
Do I believe it is worth the effort?
How can I enjoy the things I will have to do today in order to move closer to
my goal?
How would the person I want to be do the thing I am about to do?
I love what General MacArthur said: "Age wrinkles your skin. Quitting wrinkles your soul!"
A commitment you make to yourself should be no less sacred than a commitment you make to
others!
You are in control of your destiny! Live the life you dream!
I am so proud of you and your commitment to excellence and SPECTACULAR!
How are you different? What is your niche? What will keep your competition from duplicating
your idea and crushing you?
What are the risks? What could go wrong?
What are the rewards? This is where you talk about the numbers/projections.
What do you want? What is the deal? You should propose a deal and an amount of
moneyenough to get you to the next significant milestone. Good = we need $3 million to reach
our next milestone. Bad = whatever you give us is fine.
What is the exit? How does an investor cash out of this deal?
It is not at all uncommon to spend six months researching and preparing a business plan.
Remember, your goal in raising capital is to get funded. You will not even receive a return
telephone call, much less get a face to face meeting, if you havent done your homework. The
key to raising money is to prepare a first class well thought out succinct business plan. As
American Express would tell you Dont leave home without it.
getting to an optimum agreement. Equally important is knowing what it is that you want in a
negotiation and why you want it. You must know what is motivating you and you must be
willing to tell the other side what that is. How in the whole world can you expect the other side
to meet your needs if you dont tell them what they are? And yet, too many times I have seen
people not disclose what they really want because they think that it will dilute their bargaining
position or make them less powerful.
My final thought for this article is that too often we negotiate as if we will never see this person
again. My experience is just the opposite. More leases are renewed than are written from scratch.
More shipments go to old customers than to new ones. There are a limited number of bankers in
my town and my reputation precedes me, no matter what that reputation is. Life is short, and it
does tend to come full circle. How you conduct yourself and how you handle your emotions will
be part of your legacy. Negotiation is not a war. It isnt about getting the other side to wave a
flag and surrender. Dont think hurt. Think help. Dont demand. Listen. Dont say my way or the
highway. Be flexible. Be creative. Spend some time working on increasing your power by
creating great alternatives.
Next time you negotiate, try asking lots of questions, practice really listening to the answers and
tell the other side why something is important to you. You will be amazed at the results
Not one of these companies is average. They all have developed a niche, a message, a value-add
that separates them from the pack. In your business, choose not to be average.
on the investors wavelengththey dont know what an investor is looking for or even how to
talk to him.