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John Gray
An illusionwith afuture
at the
the idea of progress
v_/uestioning
a
start of the twenty-first
is
bit
century
on
of the
the existence
like casting doubt
in Victorian
times. The stock reac
Deity
tion is one of incredulity,
followed by
It
is not so
then
moral
anger,
panic.
is unshak
that belief in progress
much
able as that we
are terrified
of losing it.
the
embodies
to be inevita
imagines progress
ble, but to deny that it is possible seems
tantamount
to snuffing out all hope. In
idea of progress
for it is a faith, not the result of
faith
that the
kind
of empirical
any
inquiry
in science can
advance that has occurred
No
mans,
worst
The
we know more
dalus
Summer
Academy
of Arts
terms of mass
killing of humans by hu
the twentieth
century was the
in history
itwill be
but
;
surely
- we must
that
such
believe
objected
can
in
future.
avoided
the
horrors
be
go on ?
To reject the very idea of progress
must appear extreme,
if not willfully
is
Yet
the
idea
found in none
perverse.
How
else can we
and was
the world's
of
unknown
religions
For
among the ancient philosophers.
was
a
series
of
Aristotle,
process
history
no more mean
es of
growth and decline
we observe
in the lives
ingful than those
of plants and animals. Early modern
and some
thinkers such as Machiavelli
thinkers
of the Enlightenment
Hume believed
shared
that his
the oscillation
between
2004
civiliza
was
coeval with
hu
in ethical
and political
history;
terms the future was bound to be much
like the past. The same view is found in
and even Voltaire was at times
Hobbes,
to it.
inclined
in the fu
be times of peace and freedom
as
in
been
the
there
had
ture,
past; but
was
that what
gained in
they believed
one generation would
surely be lost in
another. They believed
that in ethics and
no progress,
is
there
politics
only recur
ring gain and loss.
This seems to me
to be the lesson
of
that is
any view of the human prospect
not
hopes. Prog
befogged
by groundless
ress is an illusion - a view of human
life
and history that answers to the needs of
the heart, not reason. In his book The
Future of an Illusion, published
in 1927,
Freud argued that religion is an illusion.
Illusions need not be all false ; they may
contain grains of truth. Even so, they are
believed
not because
Believers
fundamental
in progress
have
identified
life
its continuous
transformation
by sci
ence ;but
un
have
invested
this
they
doubted
fact with hopes and values in
herited
from religion.
idea of progress what
the idea of providence
progress
progress
it isworth
insupportable,
this state of affairs has come
asking how
about. Most human beings who have
ever lived lacked any such
hope, and yet
a great many of them had
happy lives.
are we so different?
Why
lies in our history. The
is the offspring
modern
faith in progress
of amarriage
between
seeming rivals
the lingering
influence of Christian
faith
and the growing power of science
in
From
Europe.
early-nineteenth-century
The
it
where
deny the fact of improvement,
it could
existed; but they never imagined
be continuous.
They knew there would
seems
answer
the eschatological
hopes of Christianity
we inherit the belief that
and
meaning
even salvation can be found in the flux of
advance
history. From the accelerating
we acquire the
of scientific knowledge
belief in a similar advance by humanity
itself.
From one angle, the idea of progress
is
a secular version of Christian
eschatol
ogy. In Christianity,
history cannot be
: it is amoral drama,
senseless
beginning
with a rebellion against God and ending
with the Last Judgment. Christians
therefore
think of salvation as a histori
on
For Hindus
and Buddhists,
the other hand, itmeans
liberation from
time. Itmeant
the same inMithraism
amystery
cult that for a time among the
Romans
rivaled Christianity.
Thus the
cal event.
mystical
entered
vision
of liberation
from
time
dalus
Summer
2004
11
An
illusion
with a
future
John Gray
on
progress
of the Christian
A world
salvation.
of
promise
without
such transcendent
suffered
still have
gious violence
not have been
of perfecting
humanity.
The role of eschatological
modern
political movements
been much
in
beliefs
has not
studied.
Amongst
analytical
a
ignorance of religion is
philosophers,
social
while
of
honor,
point
professional
to be dominated
science continues
by
that were falsi
theories of secularization
fied generations
ago. Yet the connection
and
between
Christian
eschatology
movements
has
revolutionary
not gone entirely unnoticed.
It is the
Cohn's book,
central theme of Norman
:Revolution
The Pursuit of theMillennium
and Mystical Anarchists of
aryMillenarians
in 1957,
theMiddle Ages. First published
modern
Cohn's
study
masterly
to understanding
Christian
eschatology:
to an
coming
movements
Cohn
to a radical version
held
end,
and
of the
was
one
was
Cohn's
believed
mystical
that God would bring about this trans
in human affairs. Bakunin
formation
- even more
incredi
and Marx believed
so
unaid
that humankind
could do
bly
ed. A similar
12 D
fantasy
dalus
Summer
animated
announcement
absurd
history.
It is no accident
Fukuya
of the end of
of Marxism,
birthplace
Neither
neoliberalism.
could have aris
outside
en, or even be fully understood,
a culture
the
belief
that sal
pervaded
by
vation is an event in history. Modern
are
projects of universal
emancipation
earthly
of the Christian
renditions
of salvation.
promise
In contrast,
the pagan world was
markable
for the extreme modesty
re
of its
and Epicu
hopes. For Marcus Aurelius
the
life
would
rus,
always remain
good
a
The
notion
the privilege
of
that
few.
- or
mass
the
of humanity
could be saved
was worth
was unknown.
saving
Only
with Christianity
did the notion enter
that all humankind
European
antiquity
- or
all of it that accepted
the Christian
could be saved. In holding out
message
in the
the prospect
of an improvement
human condition,
secular humanists
are
the vast hopes kindled by
renewing
in
the ancient world.
Christianity
-
xiithough
Fukuyama
of history,
and
Bakunin, Marx,
an end
don't
they
proclaim
most of our secular humanists
unlike
do look forward
twentieth-century
politics.
The late medieval
describes
is indispensable
ma's
to a better world
than
The method
engineering
or Bakunin
may be piecemeal
- as in
rather than
trans
revolutionary
most
of history,
is now
knowledge
and accelerating.
Short of a
throughout
of human
2004
greater
catastrophe
realistically
science is unstoppable.
This
second source of the modern
fact is the
faith in
progress.
The
reality
demonstrated
power.
today
is
progress
by increasing human
are more humans alive
of scientific
There
face of Earth
is
by human
species of flora
transformed
expansion.
being
and fauna
Unnumbered
are
and the
being driven into extinction,
root
is
The
of
climate
global
changing.
this increase in human power is the
Philoso
growth of human knowledge.
the validity of scien
phers may dispute
tific knowledge
cultural
;
anthropologists
science as one belief sys
may represent
tem among others - yet, faced with the
fact of growing human
cism about the validity
is pointless.
knowledge
as gain in the
is no built-in
human well-being
of knowledge.
The most
of scientific
predictable
by-product
an increase in
for
is
instance,
progress,
im
the intensity of war. The long-term
pact could be to make
able to humans. Even
deny
scientific
Earth uninhabit
so, it is frivolous
-
progress
modernist
thinkers seem
The error in the dominant
as
some
to want
to
post
to do.
modern
worldview
life. Human
man
needs
knowledge
stay much
changes, but hu
the same. Humans
whose
The notion
that one way of life
is like saying
could be best for everybody
that one style of art could be better than
absurd,
every other. That is obviously
but it does not mean we cannot judge
and eras. No way of
for everybody,
but some are
bad for everyone.
as for other animals there
For humans
are
species-wide
goods and evils. Draw
a
not
is
list
easy, but fortunately
ing up
that is not necessary. As soon as we find
a value that looks universal, we see that
different
cultures
life is best
between
harmony
and the growth
to evaluate history
in terms of progress
- or
decline. Ethics would be like art, in
can be made
which
judgments
regarding
progress and decline within
particular
traditions
traditions, but not between
ethics.
power, skepti
of scientific
An
actually occurred. Nor does it entail
illusion
with a
rejecting the reality of universal human
values. There are postmodernist
thinkers
future
who maintain
that we cannot pass moral
:
on other cultures and
judgments
epochs
there are only different
forms of life,
each with its own ideals and standards.
If this were so, it would make no sense
have
it clashes with
Justice
cultural
quest,
high
gross
inequalities.
harmony
life.
among
on
achievement
There is no natural
the goods
of human
use their
to satisfy
growing knowledge
their conflicting
needs. As they do, they
remain as prone to frailty and folly as
ever been.
they have
Conflicts
among basic human values
do not arise only in extreme situations.
In good times
but
they may be masked,
To question
to cast doubt
conflicts of
they flow from the endemic
human needs, and they are permanent.
is not
that
dalus
Summer
2004
13
John Gray
on
progress
Ethics
that humans
these conflicts.
Unlike
scientific
knowl
are
edge, the skills of ethics and politics
not easily transmitted.
They have to be
learnt afresh with each new generation,
and they are easily lost.
are
jLlumans
curious, but
intensely
fear
the
truth
;
they
they long for peace,
but they are excited by violence
; they
dream of a world of harmony,
but they
are at war with
less efforts
here in a
themselves.
to show
Despite
that their values
tire
co
of ingrained
it is also found in Hin
delusion,
It forms part of
duism and Buddhism.
what may be called a human orthodoxy,
that the human animal
which
recognizes
human
is incorrigibly
flawed.
In contrast,
secular humanists
believe
can some
that the growth of knowledge
how make humans more rational. From
Comte and John Stuart Mill to
Auguste
it has
and Bertrand Russell,
John Dewey
in science
that progress
been believed
in socie
would be matched
by progress
that if intel
ty. These thinkers accepted
were
to falter or stop,
lectual progress
cease too. Yet
in society would
progress
none of them ever
that while
imagined
to
continued
the growth of knowledge
life could
ethical and political
accelerate,
was
Yet
that
the
regress.
reality during
most of the last century, and there is no
14 D
dalus
Summer
of the
;but it is also a by-product
diffusion
of scientific knowledge.
Sci
ence has enabled
to be
standards
living
raised in advanced
societies
industrial
;
but worldwide
is trig
industrialization
a
gering
struggle for the control of scarce
It is the practical
natural resources.
ap
of science that has made
the
plication
flicts
present
possible;
population
of population
industrialization
advancing
cause of climate
change.
growth with
is the human
Science
but knowl
brings knowledge,
can be
an
unmixed
edge is not
good. It
as much
a curse as a
blessing.
JLhis is a thought that goes very much
against the grain of Western
philosophy,
in the faith
after all, was founded
which,
that knowledge
and virtue go together.
Socrates was able to affirm that the un
examined
life is not worth
living be
cause
in Plato's
at any
account,
rate
emancipation.
The myth of Genesis
In the biblical
message.
Man follows his eating
has a different
story, the Fall of
from
the fruit of
2004
Simon
debris
This
onstrated
in the history
ity, science
al civilization
which
has known.
suc
propagandists
progress were the French positivists
Henri de Saint-Simon
and Auguste
salvation
through science.
is a complex
body of ideas,
but the tenet of the positivist
creed that
Positivism
to my present
theme is the
belief that the growth of scientific
con
enables the intractable
knowledge
flicts of history to be left behind.
Saint
is relevant
the conflicts
that it answered
They recognized
to enduring human needs, and
they set
a new faith :a bizarre but,
about devising
for a time, hugely successful
cult, with
its own priesthood
and liturgy, daily ob
servances based on the 'science' of
phre
a
nology, and even
special sort of cos
sewn up
tume fashioned
with buttons
the back so that dressing
and undressing
without
world.
century.
history
cessful
Applying
could bring
is the truth
the
of metaphysics
be formulated.
we must somehow
cope
knowledge
with the consequences.
The core of the idea of progress
is the
illusion that knowledge
enhances hu
mere
man freedom. The
reality is that it
can
increases
Science
human
power.
ly
not end history;
it can only add another,
to history's
extremely potent
ingredient
conflicts.
that with
to the proclamations
go back. Contrary
of Rousseau
and some Green thinkers
we cannot revert to a
today,
simple life.
Once we have eaten from the tree of
in the biblical
believed
of knowledge,
ethics and poli
tics could become
sciences. Once the
is one
ing fire from the gods. Knowledge
the
life
another.
thing,
good
comes
The power of these myths
cannot
from the insight that humanity
continuing
intimated
and Comte
advance
lous confection,
but the central ideas of
the positivists
have had an enormous
influence.
and Her
J. S.Mill, Karl Marx,
bert Spencer are only a few of the nine
thinkers who absorbed
teenth-century
the positivist
belief
enable the abolition
century,
that the diffusion
positivist
ence and
technology
universal
civilization
neoliberal
of sci
a
engender
in the
resurfaced
would
dalus
the
Summer
free market.
2004
15
An
illusion
with a
future
John Gray
on
progress
In the
of cultures.
and the singularity
race
Nazis
the
exalted
twentieth
century,
and instinct. Today religious fundamen
talists seek to resist the advance of sci
con
ence
to a prelapsarian
by returning
Such
innocence.
dition of doubt-free
claim to reject the modern
that
and the faith in progress
a
shows
examination
but
little
it,
movements
world
drives
this to be self-deception.
The Nazis certainly rejected Enlight
enment values of human equality, per
of criminal anthropology,
an element
in Nazi
entific
sci
of
conception
much of humanity
condemned
progress
to slavery or extermination
; itwas not
it
the worst
that
produced
by accident
in history. Even so, the Nazis
genocide
shared with
science
the goal of
the positivists
to develop a new human
using
- a
project. With
ity
peculiarly modern
modern
faith
the
shared
Nietzsche
they
that human
life can be transformed
by
an act of will.
is evident in radical
as a
its inception
body of
in
the
mid-twentieth
century,
thought
radical Islam has seen itself- and been
anti
seen by others - as a profoundly
in
movement.
But
fact
Western
many of
from
its themes have been borrowed
A similar belief
Islam. From
radical Western
thought. The idea that
the world can be regenerated
by spectac
l6 D
dalus
Summer
the ortho
century
Move
chism, and Lenin's Bolshevism.
ments
and radical Islam
such as Nazism
to the modern
do not offer an alternative
faith
in progress
but an exacerbation
of
it.
and the Re
progress
are illusions. But
the illusions
whereas
of older
faiths
the
realities,
embody enduring
on
faith in progress depends
suppressing
the conflicts
of human
them. It represses
moral
needs and denies the unalterable
human
of human
ismore
knowledge.
than
commonplace
that what we do with sci
is up to us. But we
entific knowledge
thinkers, friends of reason
enlightened
- are
few and feeble, and
and humanity
as the rest of the
no doubt as deluded
Nothing
the insistence
doxy
echoes
nineteenth
Jacobinism,
anar
Russian
and
European
of French
ambiguity
more
so. The hopes to
species, if not
are
in progress
which believers
cling
time
their
and
values
of
the
place,
only
current of
shifting eddies in the shallow
conventional
opinion. Today bien-pensant
are adamant
that human
economists
a uni
can
be
secured
by
prosperity
only
a
versal regime of free markets
; genera
tion ago they believed
managed
only
could do the trick. A generation
markets
before
that, many
were missionaries
Current
for
about
planning.
are
and globalization
free markets
just
fash
the latest in a series of intellectual
central
beliefs
of ideas
is a
Still, giving up the idea of progress
an
drastic step. Itmay be
illusion, but it
been a benign one.
has sometimes
of
Would we have seen the abolition
or the
of
torture,
prohibition
slavery,
2004
obscures
without
There
ress more
are alternative
attractive
perception
of prog
than the discredited
is
everywhere.
not the terminus of history; different
countries with varying histories
and
may
present circumstances
ent economic
arrangements.
follow Marxists
need
differ
neo
Again,
in thinking of
in terms of
development
increasing human power over the natu
- as
the former
ral environment;
but
economic
Western
Rather
vision
that respected
the lim
of progress
its of Earth. In other writings,
I have
tried to sketch some such view. Yet I
have come
hu
tal necessities
appear threatened,
:
mans will act as
have
done
they
always
- even
secure
now
to
will
them
try
They
if the result iswar, and the ruin of all.
Belief
in progress
Far more
than
our
it clouds
condition.
is harmful
because
musical
brocade
of
progressive
hope?
the liberating power
in
into modern
encrypted
some of
Europe's
is
of knowledge
on
life. Drawing
most
ancient
tradi
with
overcome.
from human
sustained
and consoled
religions
of people over many centuries,
to vanish almost without
trace. Yet
millions
only
those who
to the possibility
of
progress need not fear. The illusion that
can remake the
through science humans
is an integral part of the modern
world
condition.
the eschatological
Renewing
hold
is an illusion
it
D
dalus
Summer
2004
An
illusion
with a
future
visions
liberals
realities.
of the past,
of the human
the religions
these
Y]