Reliability Example

Advances in Maintenance
Engineering

Reliability Block
Diagrams

!
!

Suppose 100 components were put to test.

After a given period of time, and under
specified conditions, 10 of these
components have failed.
What is the reliability R?
R = 90% or 0.9

Dr. Chakib KARA-ZAITRI

Objectives

Cumulative probability of failure

F; Example

! To

define Reliability as a constant.

understand the concept and
practices of Reliability Block
Diagrams (RBD).

! To

!
!

Suppose 100 components were put to test. After

a given period of time, and under specified
conditions, 10 of these components have failed.
What is the probability of failure F?
F = 10% or 0.1

Probability Law

Agenda
!
!
!
!
!

The sum of the probability of success (R)

and the probability of failure (F) is equal to
1.
R = Probability of success
F = Probability of failure

R
Series systems
Parallel system
Series-Parallel systems
MooN Systems

R+F=1

Reliability definition

Reliability Block
Diagrams

Reliability is the probability (proportion or

percentage) that a component fulfils its
required function for a specified period of
time and under specified conditions.

Reliability Block Diagrams.doc

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Reliability Block Diagrams

Series System: Success Logic

In practice, a system can be represented as a

network in which the system components are
connected in:
! Series
! Parallel
! Combination of series and parallel

R1

R2

Which component(s) need to

work for the system to work?

It is very important that the relationship between the system and its network
model be thoroughly understood before considering the analytical techniques

that can be used to evaluate the reliability of these networks

13

Series System: Success

Logic

Success or Failure Logic

! Success Logic
the combination of components which
must work for the system to work

R1

R2

Only one scenario.

Component 1 working

! Failure Logic
the combination of components which
must fail for the system to fail

and
Component 2 working

So what is the probability of success

R?
10

14

Series System: Success

Logic

Series Systems
Components are said to be in series if they
all have to work successfully for the
system to work successfully.
R1

R1

R2

Only one way.

R2

Component 1 working
and

R1: Reliability of component 1

R2: Reliability of component 2.

Component 2 working

R = R1 ....
11

Series System: Success

Logic

15

Series System: Success

Logic
R1

R2

! In

success logic, the probability

of success is calculated,

!i.e.

Only one way.

Component 1 working

and
Component 2 working

R = R1 x ....
12

Reliability Block Diagrams.doc

16

22

Series System: Success

Logic

Series System: Failure Logic

Scenario 2:

R1

Component 1 failed

R2
and

Component 2 working

Only one way.

Component 1 working
and
Component 2 working

F1

R2

R = R1 x R2
17

Series System: Failure

Logic

21

Series System: Failure Logic

Scenario 2:
Component 1 failed
and

In failure logic, the

probability of failure F is
calculated

Component 2 working

F1

R2

Probability of Scenario 2:
P2 = F1 x R2
18

Series System: Failure

Logic

22

Series System: Failure Logic

Scenario 3:
Component 1 failed

Scenario 1:

and
Component 2 failed

Component 1 working
and
Component 2 failed
R1

F2

F1

F2

19

Series System: Failure

Logic

23

Series System: Failure Logic

Scenario 3:
Component 1 failed

Scenario 1:

and
Component 2 failed

Component 1 working
and
Component 2 failed

F1
R1

F2

F2

Probability of scenario 3:
P3 = F1 x F2

Probability of scenario 1 = P1
P1 = R1 x F2
20

Reliability Block Diagrams.doc

24

23

Series System: Failure

Logic
R1

Series System: Example (1)

Solution:

R2

R = 0.9510 = 0.5987
Probabilities of the 3 scenarios:
P1: R1 and F2
P2: F1 and R2
P3: F1 and F2
So:
F = P1 + P2 + P3 Or;
F = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (F1 x F2)

The system reliability decreases very rapidly

as the number of series components
increases.

25

Series System: Failure Logic

29

Series System: Example (2)

F = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (F1 x F2)

So;
F = R1 x (1 - R2) + (1 - R1) x R2 + (1 - R1) x (1 - R2)
Or;

A system requires 200 identical components

in series. If the overall reliability must not be
less than 0.99, what is the minimum
component reliability ?

F = R1 - (R1 x R2) + R2 - (R1 x R2) + 1 - R1 - R2 +

(R1 x R2)
So;
F = 1 - (R1 x R2)

R = R1 x R2

Or

26

Series System: Hint

Best to use

30

Series System: Example (2)

Solution:

success logic.

0.99 = R200
R = 0.991/200 = 0.99995 !

General Formula for n components in series

is:

R = R1 x R2 x R3 x .... Rn

27

Series System: Example (1)

31

Parallel System
Components are said to be in parallel if
only one component has to work
successfully for the system to work
successfully.

A system consists of 10 identical

components all of which must work
for the system to work.
What is the system reliability if each
component has reliability 0.95.

R1
R2

R1: Reliability of component 1

R2: Reliability of component 2.
28

Reliability Block Diagrams.doc

32

24

Parallel System: Success

Logic

Parallel System
R1

scenario 2:

R2

Component 1 failed
and Component 2 working
F1

Is it best to use success or

failure logic ?

R2
Probability of scenario 2:
P2 = F1 x R2

33

Parallel System: Success

Logic

37

Parallel System: Success

Logic

scenario 1:

scenario 3:

Component 1 working
and Component 2 failed

Component 1 working
and Component 2 working

R1

R1

F2

R2
Probability of scenario 3:
P3 = R1 x R2

34

38

Parallel System: Success

Logic

Parallel System: Success

Logic
scenario 1:

scenarios (3) :
P1: R1 and F2
P2: F1 and R2
P3: R1 and R2
So:
R = P1 + P2 + P3 Or;
F = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (R1 x R2)

Component 1 working
and Component 2 failed
R1
F2
Probability of scenario 1 = P1
P1 = R1 x .....
35

Parallel System: Success

Logic

39

Parallel System: Success

Logic (7)

scenario 1:

R = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (R1 x R2)

So;
R = R1 x (1 - R2) + (1 - R1) x R2 + (R1 x R2)
Or;
R = R1 - (R1 x R2) + R2 - (R1 x R2) + (R1 x R2)
So;

Component 1 working
and Component 2 failed
R1
F2

R = R1 + R2 - (R1 x R2)

Probability of scenario 1:
P1 = R1 x F2
36

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40

25

Parallel System: Failure

Logic

Parallel System: Example (1)

Cont.
It is much easier to use the following
formula:

F1

R1

F2

R2

scenarios ( 1 only) :
F1 and F2
So:
F = F1 x F2
R=1-F

R3

R = 1 - (1 - R1) x (1 - R2) x (1 - R3)

41

Parallel System: Failure

Logic

45

Parallel system: Example (2)

F = F1 x F2
F = (1 - R1) x (1 - R2)
F = 1 - R1 - R2 + (R1 x R2)
But;
R=1-F
So;
R = R1 + R2 - (R1 x R2)

A system is designed to have a reliability

of 0.999 using components having an
individual reliability of 0.7.
What is the minimum number of
components required ?

42

Parallel System: Hint

Best to use

46

Parallel system: Example (2)

Solution:

failure logic.

0.999
= 1 - (1 - 0.7)n
0.999 -1 = - (0.3)n
ln(0.001) = n.{ln(0.3)}
n = 5.74

General Formula for n components in

parallel is:

Caution:

F = F1 x F2 x F3 x .... Fn
and
R = 1- F

R(5 components) = 0.9975

R(6 components) = 0.9993
43

Parallel System: Example

(1)

47

Parallel system: Example (3)

Consider 3 components in parallel;

R1
R2

R3

Suppose a system is made of a number of

components in parallel, and that the single
component reliability is 0.8.
Evaluate the effect on the overall system
reliability by increasing the number of
components in parallel.

F = F1 x F2 x F3
R = R1 + R2 + R3 - R1.R2 - R1.R3 - R2.R3 +
R1.R2.R3
44

Reliability Block Diagrams.doc

48

26

Parallel system: Example (3)

Cont.

Series - Parallel; A
A

No. Of Components System reliability

1

0.8

0.96

0.992

0.9984

0.99968

0.99994

RA = R2
49

Increasing the number of

components in parallel

53

Series - Parallel; B
B

1.05

1
0.95

0.9
0.85

RB = 1 - (1 - R)2 = 2R - R2

0.8
0.75
1

N u m b er o f co m p o n en ts in p arallel

50

Series - Parallel Example

54

Series - Parallel; ABC

A

3
1

2
C

RAB = R2 (2R - R2)

RAB = 2R3 - R4
RS = 1 - {1- R}{1 - (2R3 - R4)}
RS = 0.92288

Component Reliability = 0.8

51

55

Partially redundant systems

MooN Configuration

Series - Parallel Example

B

3
1

MooN: M out of N

2
4

Or;
At least M components out of N components
must work successfully for the system to
work successfully

Component Reliability = 0.8

52

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56

27

2oo3 system: State

enumeration

Reliability of a MooN system

A
2oo3

N
= N R iF N i
MooN
i
i= M
So for 2oo3 system;
2 1
3 0
= 3 R F + 3R F
R
2oo3 2
3

Success or failure
logic ?

57

2oo3 system:
State enumeration
A
2oo3

1. A B C
2. A B C
3. A B C
4. A B C
5. A B C
6. A B C
7. A B C
8. A B C

61

2oo5 System
RA RB RC
FA RB RC
RA FB RC
RA RB FC
FA FB RC
FA RB FC
RA FB FC
FA FB FC

Calculate the reliability of a 2oo5 system; i.e.

at least two components must work
successfully for the system to work
successfully.
Suppose component reliability is 0.8.

58

2oo3 system:
State enumeration

62

2oo5 system: Success

Logic

Possible states
A
2oo3

1. A B C
2. A B C
3. A B C
4. A B C
5. A B C
6. A B C
7. A B C
8. A B C

RA RB RC
FA RB RC
RA FB RC
RA RB FC
FA FB RC
FA RB FC
RA FB FC
FA FB FC

In success logic, this is equivalent to:

2 work, or 3 work, or 4 work or 5 work.
( a total of 4 ways)

59

5 2 3 5 3 2 5 4 1 5 5 0
R
R F + R F + R F + RF
2oo5 = 2
3
4
5
R
10R2F 3+10R3F 2 +5R4F1+ R5
=
2oo5
R
099328
.
2oo5 =

Reliability of a 2oo3 system

2oo5 system: Failure Logic

R = RA RB RC + FA RB RC + RA FB RC + RA RB FC

In Failure logic, this is equivalent to:

4 fail or 5 fail (a total of 2 ways only)

If
RA = RB = RC = R
then FA = FB = FC = F
So;

R2oo3 = R3 + 3 R2F
R2oo3 = 3R2 - 2R3

60

Reliability Block Diagrams.doc

63

5 4 1 5 5 0
F
F R + F R
4oo5 = 4
5
F
5F 4R1+ F5
=
4oo5
.
F
000672
4oo5 =
R
099328
.
=
2oo5

64

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