Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INDICE
1.
PREMISAS...................................................................................................................................2
2.
OBJETIVO ...................................................................................................................................4
3.
4.
5.
4.1.
4.2.
ROAD MAPPING...................................................................................................................... 10
5.1.
5.2.
6.
7.
CONCLUSIONES Y RECOMENDACIONES.......................................................................... 24
8.
ANEXOS ................................................................................................................................... 24
Pgina 1
1. PREMISAS
El curso se desarrollara bajo un nuevo enfoque, dicho enfoque fue explicado el da 13/12/13 y tendr
como base la siguiente relacin de tres variables, ver la figura:
Adems tambin se seal la otra relacin que ampla el desarrollo del curso:
Esta fue explicada con ejemplos claros relacionados a la vida real y ejemplos de proyectos de
construccin.
Como apoyo al curso se ha completado informacin de consulta o de lectura que ser motivo de
control de lectura y como referencia bibliografa para el desarrollo del curso a continuacin se
muestran las pantallas del DROPBOX ver imgenes.
Pgina 2
Pgina 3
3. DOCUMENTACION APLICABLE
3.1. Presentacin del curso
3.2. Material complementario de lectura alojado en el DROPBOX
Pgina 4
Los equipos de trabajo debern desarrollar los siguientes talleres que complementaran el
desarrollo del curso para lo cual emplearan los medios actuales de comunicacin: Facebook,
Skype, correos electrnico y dems herramientas TIC, los talleres que debern hacer sern los
siguientes y las fechas de subidas al grupo: CAMPAA DE PROYECTOS CONSTRUCCION
EXITOSOS, FACEBOOK link: https://www.facebook.com/groups/PROYECTOSEXITOSOS/
Taller 04, aplicacin de concepto de calidad segn la norma ISO 9000:2005, el
equipo de trabajo analizara como mnimo tres insumos de la construccin, ser necesario
Pgina 5
Imagen
del
insumo
CARACTERISTICAS
REQUISITOS
Pgina 6
Para esto los equipos debern identificar por lo menos treinta (30) riesgos como parte de
la RBS (estructura de descomposicin de riesgos), estos riesgos sern distribuidos dentro
de los factores de riesgo ver figura:
Factores de
riesgos
Para poder identificar riesgos debern seguir los ejemplos mostrados a continuacin:
Pgina 7
Pgina 8
Estos son ejemplos de riesgos y de hechos evidentes, estos ltimos no son motivo de gestin de
riesgos.
La probabilidad ser definida como el equipo considere apropiado, ejemplo cual es la probabilidad
de lluvias en Arequipa en el mes de febrero: muy probable 0.95.
Pgina 9
Cmo afectara ms o cul sera el impacto del riesgo de suceder, en que lnea base afectara ms,
ejemplo siguiendo el caso de las lluvias afectara ms en el costo quiz generando incrementos de
costos que superen el 4% del monto del contrato; por lo tanto, el impacto ser de 0.8
Con la probabilidad y el impacto definido el equipo deber completar lo que corresponda en la
matriz Excel de riesgos.
Culminado el taller 05 los equipos de trabajo debern completar todos los campos de la
matriz
Excel.
Link
de
archivo:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B49Tsv7N82EOUlVzbEhxdlJtczQ/view?usp=sha
ring
Taller 07, Taller de uso del software Riskyproject
5. ROAD MAPPING
5.1. Base terica de la TRM
El Per como pas no puede ni debe darse el lujo de perder ms tiempo en orientar sus
esfuerzos de investigacin y desarrollo hacia la consolidacin de su desarrollo; por lo que, la
aplicacin de la TRM (Technology roadmap) se plantea como crtica.
Pgina 10
Vista 01: identificacin de las necesidades para un determinado sector o rea de inters.
35
Time
Uncertain /
high impact
Germany
liberalised
Regulator
action?
Home shopping
EU
takes off
liberalised
Market
trends
Existing products
& services
Grow express
business
European reach
Global reach
(Europe & NA)
E capability
E-business fulfilment
Research
activity
Materials handling
Track & trace
GAPS
?
Network
integration
Supply chain
E-access
Environmental
Key:
Requires investment
Colours relate to
existing subthemes
Vista 02: obsrvese un aplicacin de la TRM concluida se observan las brechas y acciones en el tiempo.
Vista 03: obsrvese la secuencia de pasos a seguir y la obtencin del entregable de la TRM: 1) Plan de
Pgina 11
En el artculo: Science and Technology Roadmaps. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management. Vol. 48. No. 2. Mayo, 2002 pp.135
137.; Ronald N. Kostoff y Robert R. Scahller explican que en los procedimientos de mapeo tecnolgico basados en expertos, un grupo o grupos
de expertos apropiados se convocan para identificar y desarrollar atributos para los nodos y ligas del mapa por lo tanto, se requiere de un
proceso iterativo de consulta. Para una organizacin en la que la mayora de los componentes del mapa se ejercen dentro de la misma, se
pueden convocar a los actores con conocimiento relevante para elaborar el mapa, de lo contrario, se requiere de asistencia externa. En
cualquiera de los casos, se puede realizar unos anlisis retrospectivos, prospectivos o ambos, de la evolucin de procesos cientficos,
tecnolgicos o de aplicaciones (desarrollo de productos). La propuesta basada en el uso de metodologas de computacin, se utilizan anlisis de
bases de datos, de citaciones y lingsticos para identificar tecnologas y reas de productos; se estima y cuantifica su importancia relativa y se
hacen relaciones con otras reas previamente identificadas y evaluadas. Una vez que se tienen todos los atributos, se procede a generar una
red. Debido a que este procedimiento carece de interaccin con expertos; se considera conveniente un proceso hbrido basado en consulta a
expertos y uso de bases de datos, en caso de que stas existan.
Pgina 12
EIRMA document en 1998 un proceso de uso general para el mapeo tecnolgico en ocho
etapas, basado en la experiencia de mapeo tecnolgico realizado por veinticinco
compaas europeas.
Las etapas consideradas son:
1. Fase de preparacin del proyecto general de mapeo tecnolgico15
2. Establecimiento del equipo de trabajo
3. Plan preliminar para el proceso de mapeo tecnolgico
4. Procesamiento de las variables e informacin necesaria
5. Elaboracin del documento de trabajo (mapa tecnolgico)
6. Verificacin, consulta y comunicacin del mapa tecnolgico
7. Elaboracin de un documento opcional de toma de decisiones
8. Actualizacin del mapa tecnolgico
EIRMA enfatiza que el desarrollo de un proceso efectivo de mapeo tecnolgico dentro de
un negocio depende de una visin y compromiso para llevar a cabo un proceso
exploratorio e iterativo.
La propuesta de Battelle (Placet y Clarke, 1999) para la elaboracin de mapas
tecnolgicos de tecnologas emergentes est dirigida al desarrollo de un marco para tratar
y revisar un proceso de investigacin y desarrollo dinmico y complejo necesario para
lograr objetivos futuros para los negocios y el gobierno. Estos mapas, muestran
grficamente la manera en que se dirigen las actividades e investigacin hacia objetivos
que apoyan especficamente objetivos a futuro de mercado (negocio) o poltica (gobierno).
El proceso permite explorar rutas que va desde descubrimientos cientficos potenciales
hasta el sistema de aplicacin, con el propsito de cubrir las brechas entre el desarrollo de
capacidades tcnicas bsicas requeridas para actividades de investigacin y desarrollo
exitoso y la satisfaccin de los objetivos estratgicos del negocio que exige el cliente.
En su informe Placet y Clarke especifican claramente que existen diversos principios clave
para llevar a cabo el proceso de mapeo tecnolgico de tecnologas emergentes. Sin
embargo, ambos consideran etapas siguientes como bsicas en ste proceso:
1. Eleccin de destinos tecnolgicos. Se recomienda establecer objetivos estratgicos de
largo plazo, con los cuales pueden enfocarse esfuerzos hacia la estrategia del
negocio, a las tendencias de desarrollo y grado de avance cientfico y tecnolgico.
Esta etapa requiere de la formacin de un equipo de trabajo que involucre actores,
quienes conozcan la industria la que pertenezca la empresa y que puedan proyectar y
evaluar e identificarla importancia de varias unidades estratgicas de negocios; as
como factores tecnolgicos que probablemente afecten el futuro.
En esta etapa es necesario realizar un anlisis de la industria, las tendencias de
mercado y la evolucin de aspectos cientficos y tecnolgicos ajenos y propios,
generalmente de la empresa de base tecnolgica. Finalmente, se identifican los
diferentes destinos tecnolgicos ligando la visin de la empresa con factores de xito
El propsito de este trabajo no es entrar en una examinacin meticulosa de los procedimientos detectados, sino proporcionar al lector un
panorama general del proceso y de las fases consideradas en cada una de las tres propuestas. Para obtener mayor detalle de cada etapa puede
consultarse la bibliografa correspondiente (EIRMA, 1998, Placet y Clarke, 1999, Phaal, Farrukh, y Probert, 2001).
Pgina 13
El concepto de factores de xito y sus ligas (identificacin de destinos tecnolgicos) con la visin del negocio puede
consultarse en Barrer, Derek; Smith, David. Technology Foresight Using roadmaps. Long Range Planning, Vol. 28. No.2, 1995. pp. 21 28.
En este contexto se entiende por sistema productivo a los medios por los cuales se transforman determinados recursos de entrada a un
proceso de conversin o transformacin, para crear bienes y servicios.
6
El proceso de iniciacin rpida es citado en la literatura en ingls como: Start up process for technology roadmapping (TRM).
Pgina 14
El primer taller introduce el proceso a los participantes y se enfoca a temas asociados con
la capa de mercado; se identifican los controladores externos (mercado) e internos
(negocio). Estos impulsores definen la motivacin para desarrollar productos y servicios y
proporcionan un medio para dar prioridad a la importancia de conceptos del producto o
servicio futuros. Adems, se determinan y evalan los elementos de desempeo del
producto (elementos de funcionales y de desempeo del producto que son o pueden ser
importantes para el cliente o negocio, que pueden ser entregados por la tecnologa), se
puede realizar un anlisis SWOT del rea en estudio y se identifican brechas de
conocimiento y mecanismos para reducirlas.
En el segundo taller se tratan aspectos que sern incluidos en la capa de producto,
incluyendo aspectos de servicios. Deben identificarse caractersticas del producto o
conceptos del servicio con potencial para cumplir con los controladores de mercado y
negocio. El objetivo es desarrollar una visin a futuro del desarrollo del producto, desde la
perspectiva del cliente (estrategia de producto). Se evala el impacto de los controladores
respecto a cada caracterstica del producto, utilizando la prioridad de cada impulsor por el
impacto que ste ejerce sobre cada caracterstica del producto. Finalmente, se normalizan
los resultados.
En el tercer taller se analizan alternativas para la capa de tecnologa del mapa. Se
identifican las alternativas con potencial para desarrollar las caractersticas del producto
definidas en el segundo taller. Tales alternativas o soluciones tecnolgicas se evalan en
trminos del impacto en las caractersticas del producto.
Al igual que en el segundo taller, se debe construir una matriz con las caractersticas del
producto en el eje horizontal y con las reas tecnolgicas agrupadas en el eje vertical.
Para cada rea tecnolgica se asigna un impacto en cada caracterstica del producto y en
trminos del potencial para poder entregarlas. Una vez que la matriz est completa, se
evalan las reas tecnolgicas haciendo uso de los valores obtenidos en la evaluacin de
Profesor del curso Rubn Gmez Snchez S.
Pgina 15
Pgina 16
Pgina 17
Pgina 18
Pgina 19
Pgina 20
Pgina 21
Pgina 22
Pgina 23
7. CONCLUSIONES Y RECOMENDACIONES
7.1. El curso tiene una nueva orientacin hacia la relacin entre riesgos, calidad y gestin de
proyectos, como parte de este aspecto en las dos sesiones desarrolladas el da 13/12/14 se
trabaj la relacin incertidumbre, riesgos y calidad.
7.2. El trabajo a desarrollar por cada una de los equipos de trabajo generara una enorme inquietud
en cuanto a la mejora en los resultados de los proyectos.
7.3. En la reunin del da 13/12/14 se trabaj la matriz de riesgos desarrollada por la Cmara
Colombiana de la Infraestructura la cual podra ser motivo de tema de tesis de maestra, es
asunto de las decisiones de los participantes de la maestra.
7.4. La entrega y sustentacin de los trabajos ser el da 04/01/15.
8. ANEXOS
8.1.
8.2.
8.3.
8.4.
Modelo de informe tcnico modelo para el desarrollo del trabajo por equipo.
Presentacin 01 PowerPoint sobre TRM
Presentacin 02 PowerPoint sobre TRM
Presentacin 03 PowerPoint sobre TRM
Pgina 24
Pgina 25
INFORME TCNICO
BASE DE DATOS GPS
Juan Carlos Espinoza Guerra
Csar De La Jara Snchez
LISN
Junio, 2009
RESUMEN
En el presente reporte se presentan los avances realizados en el desarrollo de la base de datos GPS
del proyecto LISN. La estructura de la base de datos, as como los scripts, programas y herramientas
utilizadas sern descritos.
NDICE
1.
INTRODUCCIN .............................................................................................................3
2.
DESARROLLO..................................................................................................................3
2.1
2.2
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
Base de datos........................................................................................................................5
Estructura .............................................................................................................................5
Tipos de archivo...................................................................................................................5
Programas y scripts utilizados .............................................................................................6
2.3
2.3.1
2.3.2
3.
RESULTADOS ...................................................................................................................9
4.
INTRODUCCIN
El proyecto LISN (Low-Latitud Ionospheric Senson Netwok) cuenta actualmente con 40 estaciones
GPS que continuamente (cada 15 minutos) envan datos al servidor central, estos datos son almacenados en
carpetas temporales sin seguir una estructura y con distintos formato de nombre, por lo que el acceso a los
datos era una tarea tediosa.
Para realizar de manera adecuada el procesamiento y la distribucin de los datos a la comunidad
cientfica es necesario crear una base de datos con una estructura definida y siguiendo un estndar para los
nombres de los archivos.
Junto con la base de datos tambin es necesario contar con una interfase web que permita de una
manera sencilla realizar la descarga, visualizacin y monitoreo de los datos. A continuacin se detallan los
avances realizados en el desarrollo de estas tareas.
2.
DESARROLLO
2.1
Las mayor parte de estaciones GPS utilizan como programa de adquisicin GPS-SCINDA,
desarrollado por la AFRL (Air Force Research Laboratory). Este es un programa en real-time que genera y
guarda diferentes tipos de archivos dependiendo del receptor GPS que se este usando: Novatel o Ashtech.
Cada archivo contiene datos de una hora aproximadamente y es guardado localmente con el siguiente
formato YYMMDD_hhmmss.xxx, los tipos de datos generados son diferenciados por la extensin del
nombre del archivo.
Tabla 1: Formato del nombre de archivos horarios generados por GPS-SCINDA
YY
MM
Mes (01-12)
DD
hh
mm
ss
xxx
*.scn
*.pos
*.msg
*gps.dat
*pos.dat
*.obs
*.uz, *.z12, *.nvd Datos binarios (la extensin esta basada en el tipo de receptor)
Cuatro de las estaciones LISN (Iquitos, Bogota, Leticia y Popayan) cuentan con receptores de la
marca LEICA para los cuales se utiliza un segundo programa de adquisicin: Leica S4, el cual genera y
guarda dos tipos de archivo:
Tabla 3: Tipos de archivo generados por Leica S4
Extensin
*.lb2
Datos binarios
*.txt
Dependiendo del tipo de receptor se envan diferentes tipos de archivos al servidor central (los
archivos llegan primero a un firewall donde se almacenan temporalmente, luego los archivos son ledos por
el servidor central), estos archivos son enviados cada 15 minutos y contienen datos de la ltimos 30
minutos, Los archivos que son enviados al servidor central tienen el siguiente formato NNN.xxx donde
NNN son tres caracteres que identifican a la estacin y xxx la extensin que indica el tipo de archivo.
Tabla 4: Archivos enviados al firewall del servidor central
Tipo de receptor
Novatel
Ashtech
Leica
Extensin
*.nvd
Datos binarios
*gps.dat
*pos.dat
*.obs
*gps.dat
*.lb2
Datos binarios
*.txt
Adicionalmente las estaciones que cuentan con la ltima versin de GPS-SCINDA (1.75) envan un
archivo en formato COMPACT RINEX que contiene datos de las ultimas 24 horas, este archivo se enva
una vez al da, con el siguiente formato NNN_YYMMDD.YYd.tar.gz.
2.2
Base de datos
2.2.1
Estructura
En la base de datos GPS, creada en el servidor central (capacidad actual de 4.7 TB), se estn
almacenado archivos diarios (con datos de 24 horas), por lo que estos solo se encuentran disponibles al final
del da.
En la estructura utilizada para el almacenamiento de los archivos se ha considerado informacin de
la estacin, la fecha y el tipo de datos que contiene el archivo.
Estacin
Ao
Mes
Mes (01-12)
binary: Datos binarios (Novatel y Leica)
rinex: Datos observables en formato COMPACT RINEX
Tipo de Dato
2.2.2
Tipos de archivo
Los tipos de archivo disponibles en la base de datos dependen del tipo de receptor de la estacin,
como se mencion antes cada archivo contiene datos de 24 horas y se ha usado el siguiente formato:
NNNN_YYMMDD.xxx.Z para el nombre.
YY
MM
Mes (01-12)
DD
xxx
2.2.3
*.YYd.tar.gz
*.scn.gz
*.pos.gz
*nvd.gz
*lb2.gz
*.obs.gz
Como se mencion anteriormente, las estaciones GPS envan datos cada 15 minutos, por lo que ha
sido necesario el desarrollo de scripts que realicen el copiado, la concatenacin y cambio de nombre de los
archivos, que finalmente se almacenan en la base de datos. El lenguaje de programacin utilizado ha sido
PYTHON, un lenguaje fcil de aprender y comprender con la ventaja de ser gratuito.
"
get_gps.py.- Se encarga de leer los archivos que llegan al firewall y copiarlos en carpetas
temporales en el servidor, adicionalmente se agrega al nombre del archivo: la fecha y hora. Este
script se ejecuta cada 15 minutos.
"
create_daily.py.- Este script lee los archivos que guarda el script get_gps.py en las carpetas
temporales y realiza la concatenacin para obtener archivos diarios, durante la concatenacin se
elimina la duplicidad de datos que se genera al concatenar los archivos de 15 minutos que contienen
datos de 30 minutos.
"
daylynvd.- Este programa escrito en C, ha sido desarrollado por el Boston College, y es llamado
por el script create_daily.py para realizar la concatenacin de los archivos binarios de receptores
novatel (*.nvd).
"
nvd2rinex.- Programa en C, desarrollado tambin por el Boston College se utiliza para la creacin
de archivos en formato RINEX a partir de archivos nvd. Este programa es llamado por el script
create_daily.py.
"
"
get_rinex.py.- Se encarga de copiar los archivos en formato RINEX que llegan al firewall a la
base de datos del servidor. El copiado se realiza siempre y cuando este contenga mas datos que el
archivo RINEX creado en el servidor (el archivo RINEX creado en el servidor puede estar
incompleto ya que no todos los archivos de 15 minutos logran llegan al firewall). Este script se
ejecuta una vez al da.
El control de la ejecucin de los scripts se realiza con el crontab del sistema operativo (Red Hat), y
cada uno de los scripts guarda un log para el control de errores.
2.3
Interfase web
Para el acceso a los datos se ha desarrollado una pgina web, desde la cual es posible descargar y
graficar los datos de los diferentes tipos de archivos (diarios). Tambin existe la posibilidad de descargar
todos los archivos correspondientes a determinado mes.
Para la navegacin de la base de datos la interfase web cuenta con combo boxes para seleccionar:
el pas, la estacin, el ao y el mes. Al seleccionar el mes se muestra el respectivo calendario con links (solo
en los das que cuentan con datos) que finalmente muestran los tipos de datos disponibles.
El acceso a la descarga de archivos solo ser posible si el usuario cuenta con una cuenta de ingreso (username y
password)
En la figura 5 se muestra una vista de la interfase web mostrando los datos disponibles, una vez
seleccionada una estacion y una fecha.
2.3.1
los datos:
"
plot_s4.py .- Este script se utiliza para generar grficos de cintilaciones, es posible generar dos
tipos de grficos el primero grafica el ndice de cintilacin S4 junto con el ngulo de elevacin
contra el tiempo, y el segundo grafica el ndice de cintilacin en una vista skymap
(Azimuth/Elevacin).
plot_pos.py .- Se utiliza para graficar la posicin X,Y,Z del receptor respecto a una referencia que es este caso
es el promedio de X,Y,Z.
2.3.2
Adicionalmente la pgina web muestra grficos histricos del estado de las estaciones, as como
estadsticas de su funcionamiento. Estos grficos se actualizan cada 15 minutos, los posibles estados de una
estacin son los siguientes (en el grafico cada estado tiene un color especifico):
"
"
Azul: la estacin no ha enviado datos, posibles causas pueden ser una mala conexin a Internet,
cortes de luz mal funcionamiento de la PC.
"
Verde: La estacin ha enviado datos del mismo tamao durante la ultima hora, esto ocurre cuando el
programa de adquisicin ha dejado de funcionar (se cuelga).
"
Amarillo: La estacin ha enviado datos pero de tamao pequeo o cero, ocurre cuando el disco duro
de la computadora esta lleno o cuando el tiempo de envo de datos tarda mas de lo debido.
"
3.
RESULTADOS
El objetivo principal del proyecto se ha cumplido ya que ahora se cuenta con una interfase web,
desde la cual es posible acceder a la descarga, visualizacin y monitoreo de los datos GPS de todas las
estaciones LISN.
4.
TAREAS PENDIENTES
"
"
Tambin se esta trabajando en el programa que calcule el TEC a partir de los archivos rinex de la
base de datos, y que ser utilizado para mostrar los plots en la pgina web.
BIBLIOGRAFA
CARRANO, Charles S. GPS-SCINDA: A Real Time GPS Data Acquisition and Ionospheric
Analysis System for SCINDA. Scientific Report N X. Miami, US, AFRL, Atmospheric and
Environmental Research, Inc. 2008.
Fast-start technology
roadmapping
Prague
Thursday 9th October 2003, 09:00 - 13:00
Dr Robert Phaal
Workshop aim
To provide:
An introduction to the theory and practice
of technology roadmapping
Agenda
09:00
Overview
09:10
10:30
Break
11:00
11:20
12:30
13:00
M1
Market
M2
P1
Product
P2
P3
P4
T1
T2
Technology
T3
R&D
programmes
Resources
RD 1
RD 2
T4
RD 4
RD 3
RD 6
RD 5
Uncertainty / risk of
prediction / investment
Operations
What to manufacture?
How many of each model?
What materials to order?
quantitative focus
Medium term
Long term
New (?):
- Markets
- Products
- Technologies
- Capabilities
- Organisational structures
- Distribution channels
- Competition
Innovation
Which products?
Which markets?
What cost?
Strategy
Which technologies?
qualitative focus
Time
Performance
Technology
discontinuity
Current
dominant
technology
Emerging
Pacing
Technology S curves
Base
Key
Turbulence
Time
Strategic Postures
Time
Performance
Time
Time
1980
Motorola develops
technology
roadmapping
approach
Co-evolution
Policy
1990
Take up in
electronics
sector
2000
Semiconductor
Technology Roadmap
Take up in
other sectors
- companies
- consortia
- government
Foresight
Forecasting
Science fiction
2010
Roadmapping
approach
supports
integrated
strategic
planning
Technology roadmapping
Relationship to the strategic planning process
Market Information
Product-Market analysis
Product-Technology
Options Evaluation
Roadmap
Creation
Defined
Targets
Project
Proposals
Technology Assessment
Identification of Technology
Available / Feasible / Possible
Technology roadmapping
Two extremes
1. Market pull
2. Technology push
Planning
Market focus
Assumes product market opportunity
Deterministic
Convergent
Customer driven
Technology focus
Looking for opportunities
Open ended
Divergent
Project
management
Synchronise
2
Forecasting
Persuade
1
Understand
Simplification
Competitive
analysis
Fast-Start
Resource
allocation
Measure:
Accuracy
and clarity
Product
planning
Portfolio
management
Measure:
Measure:
Aligned
priorities &
decisions
Ongoing
co-ordination
Roadmapping
influence
Corporate
planning
Kappel, 2001
(Lucent Technologies)
Flexibility of roadmapping
Flexibility is a key strength (and challenge) of the roadmapping
approach, in terms of:
The wide range of aims that roadmapping can contribute towards
The timeframe covered by the roadmap (past and future)
The structure of the roadmap (layers and sub-layers), which can be adapted to
fit the particular application
The process that is followed to develop and maintain the roadmap/s
The graphical format that is selected to present information and communicate
the roadmap
The set of existing processes, tools and information sources in the firm, which
the roadmap and roadmapping process need to integrate with
Format
Product
planning
Bars
Multiple layers
Table
Strategic
planning
Single layer
Long range
planning
Generic TRM
Knowledge asset
planning
Graph
Text
Pictorial
Programme
planning
Flow
Process
planning
Integration
planning
Now
Plans
Future
Vision
Time
(know-when)
purpose
(know-why)
delivery
(know-what)
resources
(know-how)
Technology roadmaps
Examples of applications
Motorola
- To encourage business managers to give proper attention to the technological future
- To provide a vehicle for organising the forecasting process
- To communicate to design & development engineers and marketing personnel which
technologies will be required in future products
Lucas
- To provide integrated project planning for engineering systems
- To supply sound technological inputs to the budget process
1982
1983
Push button
Display
1985
1986
1988
LEDs
1991
Voice actuated
Data
Maps
3u CMOS
1u CMOS
Liquid crystal
Vehicular LAN
Fluorescence
Single wire
Digital modulation
PRODUCTS
1990
Paging
5u CMOS
1989
SAWs
Stereo
Linear
1987
Ceramic resonators
Subcarrier function
IC technology
1984
Glass fibre
500 kHz bandwidth
RECEIVER 1
RECEIVER 2
RECEIVER 3
Stereo
Plus:
Plus:
Scan
Personal
paging
Seek
NEXT GENERATION
FUTURE GENERATION
Plus:
A NEW SERVICE
Stock market
Road information
Remote
amplifiers
Remote controls
Super Hi Fi
Local maps
External
Influences
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
External influences
4
1.
2.
System
Demonstrator
3.
4.
.
Component /
Sub-system
Market Trends
a)
b)
c)
Technology
Project
d)
.
.
Activity Description
Principal Participants/Collaborators
Project Status
Time Window
External :
Markets
Competitors
Technologies
...
GapAnalysis
Analysis
Gap
Gap
Analysis
Benchmarking
Benchmarking
Benchmarking
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Acquisition
Planning
Make
Technology
Technology
Technology
Audit
Audit
Audit
Technology Base
R&D
Projects
Buy
Acquisitions
JVs
Licensing
Triggers /
issues
Uncertain /
high impact
Germany
liberalised
Regulator
action?
Home shopping
takes off
Market
trends
Existing products
& services
Best practice
European reach
Global reach
(Europe & NA)
Grow express
business
Cost reduction & efficiency improvements
EU
liberalised
Evolve
E capability
Capabilities
E-business fulfilment
Evolve
Research
activity
Materials handling
Environmental
Requires investment
GAPS ?
Supply chain
E-access
Key:
Network integration
Colours relate to
existing sub-themes
12% reduction
in emissions
Economic
Environmental
Political
Infrastructural
Technological
Market /
Industry
drivers
+10 years
+15 years
Now
S
T
E
E
P
I
+20 years
Vision
Performance
measures
and targets
Technical
Group areas
Time
Planning
(Oct 01)
Market
and
industry
trends
and
drivers
Road
transport
system
performance
measures
and targets
Consultation
Synthesis
Advanced structures
and materials (FASMAT)
Design and manufacturing
Processes (DMaP)
10 month duration
10 workshops
Reporting
(Sept 02)
2007
2012
80-85% of journeys
by car 39,40,103
75% of all journeys
are under 5 miles
and 45% are less
than 2 miles 31
Increasing
complexity of
lives ?
Trend towards
career
downsizing for
improved
lifestyle ?
UK car-centric
culture
1999: UK leads
world in vehicle
theft (twice global
average at
2.5%); cost of
vehicle-related
crime 6bn 46,47
2000:
3,500 road traffic
deaths and 40,000
serious injuries in
UK, at an estimated
cost of 13.3bn
(40,000 deaths and
1.7 million injuries in
EU, representing a
cost of 2% of GDP)
8,37,39,40
Key:
Individual
time
budget for
travel
remains
constant ?
Between 8 and
20% of carowning
households
experience
vehicle-related
crime each year,
depending on
region 41
Increasing
concern about
crime, security
and safety
journeys 30
2010: 50%
increase in rail
passenger miles 30
Increasing
mobile
working
2010: 25% of UK
workforce
teleworking at
least two days per
week 57
Shift in social
attitudes to
speeding
Younger
generation more
IT-literate
New working /
living patterns
Social
attitudes
towards road
transport and
the
environment?
2022
2031: 57% increase in
UK road traffic,
compared to 1996 80,103
2012: Bicycle
2010: 20-50%
journeys
increase in European
31
road passenger and double
13,80
haulage traffic
Frustration with congestion and public
2010: 10% increase transport continues ?
(journey time no longer predictable)
in bus passenger
Increasing
leisure time 39,40
Demographics
2015: 150%
increase in
international air
traffic; 100%
increase in
domestic,
compared to
1995 1
2010: Passenger
numbers through
UK airports
increase by 50% 30
2017
2030: population
in the UK is
forecast to
increase by
3.3%, to 61
million 1,39,40,67,
after which it will
decline to 57
million by 2050 73
2030: 22- 27% of
UK population
over retirement
age, compared to
19% in 1998;
pension costs rise
from 4.5-5.5% of
GDP 1,25,39,40
2021: Households
in South-east
forecast to grow by
19% on 2001
levels 41
Vision
Cheap,
safe,
reliable,
clean
convenient,
comfortable
transport
for all
2007
2012
2017
2022
Society
Ageing population
Continued growth of
South East
Consumer demand for greater variety, quality and performance of products and services
Increasing concern for health, safety and security
Cheap, safe,
convenient,
comfortable,
clean and
secure
transport
for all
Society
2002
Aim for
equitable
mobility
(same price
for same
journey for
all groups
in society)
2007
2005: 70% user
satisfaction with
all transport
modes (measure
of convenience)
2012
2010: 80% user
satisfaction with
all transport
modes
2017
2022
2020: 85%
user
satisfaction
with all
transport
modes
Vehicle
adaptability
Urban people
transport
Effective
selling and
customer
support
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology development, leading to new fuel and power systems,
such as hydrogen and fuel cells, which satisfy future social, economic and environmental goals
Increasing
variety and
use of hybrid,
electric,
multi-fuel and
alternatively
fuelled
vehicle
technologies,
and
development
of fuels and
infrastructure
Hydrogen fuel
cell
technology
and
infrastructure
becoming
viable on a
large scale
?
Sustainable
vehicle fuel
and engine
systems, that
meet the
needs of
society,
industry and
the
environment
Past
Trends &
drivers
Process
Plans
Future
1a
2a
2a
3
Applications
2b
Technology
1b
Vision
2b
Phase 2
Potential TRM modes
Detailed TRM
Summary TRM
Planning
1 day
Workshop
(knowledge
mapping &
strategic
review)
Review
meeting
Strategic TRM
Thematic TRM
Template TRM
Project TRM
Roll-out
Useful references
Willyard and McClees (1987), Motorola's Technology Roadmap process, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19
EIRMA (1997) Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision, Working Group Report No 52
Groenveld (1997) Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55
Kostoff, R.N. (1997), Science and Technology Roadmaps, Defense Technical Information Center,
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/kostoff/index.html
Garcia & Bray (1997) Fundamentals of technology roadmapping, Sandia National Lab, http://www.sandia/gov SAND97-0665
Schaller(1999) master roadmap bibliography: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rschalle/master.html
Kappel (2001) Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future, Journal of Product Innovation Management,
Vol 18, pp39-50
Research Technology Management - special edition on technology roadmapping, Vol 42, No. 2, March 2003 (5 papers, including
Domino Printing Sciences, Lucent Technologies, Roche and Rockwell Automation experience)
OEM Roadmaps - lots of links to (mainly) sector roadmaps: http://www.oemroadmaps.com
US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50,
July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/links.html
Australian guide to developing technology roadmaps - technology planning for business competitiveness, August 2001:
http://industry.gov.au/library/content_library/ 13_technology_road_mapping.pdf
Industry Canada - Technology roadmapping - a strategy for success, including a guide for government employees:
http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/intrm-crt.nsf/vwGeneratedInterE/Home
Roadmapping challenges
50
Response (%)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Starting up
the TRM
process
Developing a
robust TRM
process
Roll-out of
the TRM
process
Keeping the
TRM process
'alive' on an
ongoing
basis
Other
T-Plan aims
To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes
To establish key linkages between technology resources and
business drivers
To identify important gaps in market, product and technology
intelligence
To develop a first-cut technology roadmap
To support technology strategy and planning initiatives in the firm
To support communication between technical and commercial
functions
http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/pubs/TPlan/index.htm
T-Plan Applications
Sector / product
Aims
Product planning
Integration of R&D into business; business planning
Product planning
Product planning
New product development process
Business reconfiguration
Service development & planning
Business opportunities of new technology
Capital investment planning and technology insertion
Research programme planning
New product / service opportunity; business reconfiguration
Defining the national research agenda for the sector
New product / service development, strategy
Corporate co-operation and synergy
Strategic planning
Research priorities / network development
Research priorities / network development
Research priorities / network development
Innovation strategy
Research priorities
Innovation opportunities
Business and product strategy
Global production strategy
Planning
Integrated
product-technology
strategic planning
Roll-out
Customised process
General strategic
planning
Workshop 2
Product
Product feature
concepts
Grouping
Impact ranking
Product strategy
Gaps
Workshop 3
Technology
Workshop 4
Roadmapping
Technology
solutions
Grouping
Impact ranking
Gaps
Linking
technology
resources to
future market
opportunities
Gaps
Following on
from the process
Technology solutions
Technology /
Resources
Product features
Analysis
Grids
Product features
Business /
Market
Product /
Service /
Production
time
Softco
Ranking:
2
4
6
7
5
7
10
=1
= -1
8.3
4.9
4. Services
5.0
4.1
3.8
5. Data management
10.0
10.0
3.0
6. Labelling
9.6
9.9
9.5
5.9
5.8
2.5
8. Flexible implementation
6.8
7.5
10.0
9. Softco requirements
0.7
0.8
2.7
3.2
4.2
5.2
7. Global solution
C. Time to market
8.7
3. Compliance
B. No. 1
1.1
A. Reusability
4.2
8. Future proof
4.7
7. Connectivity
2. Validated software
6. Ease of use
4.5
5. Leading edge
4.8
4. Globalisation
5.5
3. Cost of trial
1. Security
Product
Feature
Concepts
2. Integrity of trial
Softco
1
8
CRO
6
2
Major
Pharmaceutical
7
10
10
10
Market /
Business
Drivers
9
9
D. Motivation of staff
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
Prioritisation:
(scale of 10)
**
0.7
0.8
2.7
3.2
4.2
5.2
Ranking:
=1
= -1
CRO
Softco
6.8
7.5
10.0
Major
Pharmaceutical
5.9
5.8
2.5
9.6
9.9
9.5
9. Softco requirements
10.0
10.0
3.0
8. Flexible implementation
5.0
4.1
3.8
6. Labelling
Technology
Areas
1. Security
Product
Feature
Concepts
8.7
8.3
4.9
5. Data management
*
4.7
4.2
1.1
4. Services
*
5.5
4.8
4.5
3. Compliance
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
Sofco
2. Validated software
Prioritisation:
- from Grid 1
(scale of 10)
7. Global solution
1. Alliances
7.8
7.6
7.2
2. System architecture
10.0
10.0
10.0
3. Design
7.1
7.2
7.1
4. Soft technologies
6.9
6.8
6.5
5. Output technologies
6.4
6.4
6.3
6. Securing technologies
8.6
8.4
7.6
8.3
8.2
7.5
**
* must have
** -ve re-use past, + re-use future
Year 0
Market /
Business
1. Security
Year 1
Phase 1
Competitor
threat
Time out
security levels
User
rights
Digitally
signed labels TA6
Phase 4
Phase 5 Year 3
Version 1
release Price: 10
-15K/seat
Competitor
threat? Market
launch
Legislation?
Phase 3 Year 2
Phase 2
Audit
trail
Digital signatured
audit trail TA6
Watermarked
forms & reports
Product Features
TA5 TA6
2.Validated
Software
Protocol
Randomised
design module design package
3. Compliance
Validated protocol
design module
Multi-language
database
TA7
6. Labelling
Labelling
Printer
XML data
libraries independent format
TA2
7. Global
Solution
TA2
Software
protection
User
documentation
2. Sys. Arch.
3. Design
4. Soft Tech.
5. Output Tech.
Legal
expertise
Web
enabled
Database partners
(harmonised phrases
& legislation)
CH / JAVA / CORBA
component architecture
Platform inde- Modular design
A
UML / OOD
spec. pendent design
Develop
Validatable Build
Dev.
Mngmnt
Test
eChem
sales
Team
team GNP procedures from
plan
tech.
model
(FDA)
source
stability leader
Report
generation
Protocol
design wizards
Enhanced
network of
contacts
Appoint
distributors
outside UK
On-line
tutorials
ERP
link
TCP / IP
CGI / ISAPI
ISO 9000
TickIT
Internet
updates
24 hour
support
Enhanced
development
team stability
Enhanced
report generation
Write once
technology
6. Securing Tech.
Scanning &
storage of
hand-written forms
Rapid &
Pipe ++
7. Core Tech.
Other
Resources
TA1
TA2
10. User
Friendly
Network of
contacts
Global
support
Label set
libraries
Windows
platform
TA2
support
Customisable
Domain expert
partner
UNICODE
8. Flexible
Implementation
1. Alliances
Label
design
module
User group
& conference
Graphic
User formatrepresentation
ting tool
of R&S phrases for forms
Billing &
inventory
management
Statistical
analysis
Secure
archiving
Windows
Code 39 & 128 Blinded
printers:
PDF 417
labels
PS / PCLS / PDF
barcodes TA7
Enhanced
randomisation
Upgrade path
for existing
users
Multi-level
training
9. Company
Requirements
Technology Areas
Advanced
automation
Form TA5
printing
4. Services
5. Data
Management
Validated
Ver. 330
Validated
Ver. 2
Validated
Ver. 1
Database
escrow TA6
Biometric
passwords
Raise
x million
Recruitment
software &
management
New
building
Biko: Introduction
Biko, a small traditional but well regarded bicycle manufacturer
has just been taken over by a large sports equipment and
clothing manufacturer, Sportco
The new owner has requested a technology roadmap outlining
how Biko proposes to develop its market offering over the next
10 years, and if convinced by their business case is willing to
make significant investment
A preliminary market review and SWOT analysis have resulted
in two areas of potential interest being identified:
1. Power assisted bicycles
2. High performance lifestyle bicycles
Biko: Instructions
Read handout & follow step-by-step guidance
Step 1: Market & Business
Step 2: Product & Service
Step 3: Technology
Technology
Product
Drivers
Now
Business Market
(Internal) (external)
Resources /
Other
+2y
+5y
Time
+ 10 y
Feedback
What lessons have been learnt about roadmapping?
How would you take it forward from here?
Planning
(customisation checklist)
Context: scope, focus, aims and resources
Roadmap architecture
Process
Participants
Standard process:
- Follow the guide
Customised process:
- Creative and collaborative
design activity
Workshop scheduling
Integration: systems, processes & information
Preparatory work
Business need
Domain
knowledge
dialogue
Business
owner
Architecture
TRM process
owner
Process
Implementing roadmapping
Individual planning & discussion
See planning sheet:
Objectives, scope, stakeholders, architecture, process,
information sources, key issues, next steps
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Communication roadmaps
What is the message?
Who are you communicating to?
Information representation / graphic design challenge,
drawing on detailed TRM focus on the story and
big picture
Conclusions
Benefits of roadmapping:
A focus for integrated strategic planning
Can be applied in a wide range of contexts
Supports communication and network development
Challenges of roadmapping:
Not a magic bullet - initially more questions than answers likely
Maintaining the process - the real benefit lies in its ongoing use
The process and roadmap typically need to be customised
Review
Has the workshop met your expectations?
Will you give roadmapping a try?
Any questions?
Further support:
Contact us: Rob Phaal at rp108@eng.cam.ac.uk
TRM User Group: http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/trmug.htm
Close
Product
Style
Comfort
+2y
New owner
- Investment
Demonstrator
Designer look
Ergonomic
design
Technology
On-line design
Customised frame
Direct drive
design Materials /
mechanics
Chip-on-bike
Networked
factory
Automatic
mass customisation
Ergonomics
CADCAM
Visualisation
Security
Communications
Capital
+ 10 y
2nd Generation
Design your own bike
Moulded
seat
Networked
business
Time
New Range
Expand range
Electronics
Resources
/ Other
Competition
Technical
Internet
+5y
Sportco
500-1000
Super-bike
Business Market
(Int.)
(Ext.)
Drivers
Now
Technology Roadmapping
Two-Step Method
Technology Roadmapping
Technology roadmaps are quite useful for tying all the elements
of strategic technology planning together
New
Concept
Ideation
Technology
Roadmapping
Voice
of the
Customer
Stage Gate
Technology
Development
and Review
WUT - Spring, 2007
Intellectual
Property
Generation
Technology Roadmapping
Technology Roadmapping
Acme Trap
Co.
Large
Animal
Small
Animal
Kill Traps
Fur hunters
Households,
food industry
Live traps
Zoos,
naturalists
No channels
to market
Strategic
Areas of
Focus
WUT - Spring, 2007
Technology Roadmapping
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Useable Baits
5 Baits 10 Baits
Strategic
Kill Probability
90%
Release Force
1 Nt.
Set Force
.8 Nt.
Trap MTBF
30 Act.
Luring radius
10 Ft.
Etc
Large Animal Kill Traps
Etc
Q4
2006
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Areas of Focus
are primary growth
areas 95%
Identified by common
.75 Nt.
application/function
.5 Nt.
50 Act.
20 Ft.
Technology Roadmapping
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Useable Baits
5 Baits 10 Baits
Kill Probability
90%
Release Force
1 Nt.
.75 Nt.
Set Force
.8 Nt.
.5 Nt.
Trap MTBF
30 Act.
Luring radius
10 Ft.
Q2
Q3
Q4
95%
50 Act.
Note: Essential to
explicitly
20 Ft.to
tie Technology Roadmap
customer needs.
QFD for
Small
Animal
Kill Traps
These go directly to SAF
portion of Technology
Roadmap
Technology Roadmapping
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Useable Baits
5 Baits 10 Baits
Kill Probability
90%
Release Force
1 Nt.
.75 Nt.
Set Force
.8 Nt.
.5 Nt.
Trap MTBF
30 Act.
Luring radius
10 Ft.
95%
50 Act.
20 Ft.
Duration
3
impacted by
QFD Technical
Difficulty
Technology Roadmapping
QFD for
Small
Animal
Kill Traps
These go to SAF portion
of Technology Roadmap
Technology Roadmapping
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Useable Baits
5 Baits 10 Baits
Kill Probability
90%
Release Force
1 Nt.
.75 Nt.
Set Force
.8 Nt.
.5 Nt.
Trap MTBF
30 Act.
Luring radius
10 Ft.
Technology Roadmapping
95%
50 Act.
20 Ft.
10
QFD for
Small
Animal
Kill Traps
Where we need
Ideation session:
High Importance
and High Technical
Difficulty
Technology Roadmapping
11
1. Planning
2. Preparation
3. Ideation Event
4. Post-Processing
Project Proposals
Stage Gate Processes
WUT - Spring, 2007
Technology Roadmapping
12
Use priorities to
Step 1: Strategic Areas of Focusdevelop
Roadmap
IP Generation strategy
Strategic Areas of Focus Pri.
Small Animal Kill Traps
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
5 Baits 10 Baits
Kill Probability
90%
Release Force
1 Nt.
.75 Nt.
Set Force
.8 Nt.
.5 Nt.
Trap MTBF
30 Act.
Luring radius
10 Ft.
Am
Large Animal
KillI Traps
Q3
Q4
Useable Baits
developing
IP in these
areas?!
Q2
95%
50 Act.
20 Ft.
13
This is what
Step 1: Strategic Areas of Focus Roadmap
Strategic Areas of Focus Pri.
2005
Q1
we need
to do
2006
Q2
Useable Baits
5 Baits 10 Baits
Kill Probability
90%
Release Force
1 Nt.
Set Force
.8 Nt.
Trap MTBF
30 Act.
Luring radius
10 Ft.
3
OK! What next?!
Q3
Q4
95%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
But we can
.75
notNt.do this
.5today
Nt.
50 Act.
20 Ft.
So how
will we
do this?!
Technology Roadmapping
14
Technology Roadmapping
15
Functional Description
To create our technology roadmap, we start by identifying
functions common to all of our products/systems.
Many physical (non-software) systems can be described in terms
of these common functions:
Actuator
Sensor
Control
Power Source
User Interface
Technology Roadmapping
16
Actuator
Sensor
Technology Roadmapping
17
Technology
Power Source
Pri.
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Etc
Control
Etc
Technology Roadmapping
18
Technology
Pri.
Power Source
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
1
2
3
4
Sensing
Control
Q2
2006
Q1
Etc
2005
Q1
Etc
Technology Roadmapping
19
Technology
Pri.
Power Source
Small animal kill traps
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1
1
Composite spring
4
Sensing
2005
Q1
Motor-driven actuation
Etc
Control
Etc
Technology Roadmapping
Note: Technology
Roadmaps are not
Product Roadmaps!
20
This approach
explicitly
links technology
Step 2: Technology
Roadmap
- Example
Technology
Power Source
Small animal kill traps
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1
1
Composite spring
4
Sensing
Control
Motor-driven actuation
Technology Roadmapping
21
Technology
Power Source
Small animal kill traps
Pri.
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1
1
Composite spring
4
Sensing
Attraction
2005
Q1
Motor-driven actuation
Technology Roadmapping
22
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Useable Baits
5 Baits 10 Baits
Kill Probability
90%
Release Force
1 Nt.
.75 Nt.
Set Force
.8 Nt.
.5 Nt.
Trap MTBF
30 Act.
10 Ft.
Q2
Q3
Q4
50 Act.
20 Ft.
Technology Roadmapping
23
Technology
Power Source
Small varmint kill traps
Pri.
Control
Q2
Q3
Q3
Q4
1
1
Composite spring
4
Sensing
2005
Q1
Input to
IP Generation:
Where 2006
do we
Q4
Q1
need
IP? Q2
Motor-driven actuation
Projects:
Output from
Ideation
Technology Roadmapping
24
1. Planning
2. Preparation
3. Ideation Event
4. Post-Processing
To
Technology
Roadmap
Project Proposals
Stage Gate Processes
WUT - Spring, 2007
Technology Roadmapping
25
So What?!
What do I actually use the Strategic Areas of Focus
Roadmap and Technology Roadmap for?
You use them for:
Technology Roadmapping
26
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
2006
Q1
Q4
Q2
Useable Baits
5 Baits 10 Baits
Kill Probability
90%
Release Force
1 Nt.
.75 Nt.
Set Force
.8 Nt.
.5 Nt.
5 30 Act.
This is pretty
Luring radius
6 10 Ft.
important
Trap MTBF
Pri.
20 Ft.
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
What do I need
Attraction
to work on?
How we
will do it
50 Act.
can we
do this?
Actuation
Sensing
What we
must do.
95%
Gap Analysis:
Q4
No!!
Technology
Large Varmint Kill Traps
Q3
Composite spring
Motor-driven actuation
2 we have a
But
project to do this.
3
Technology Roadmapping
27
Technology
Pri.
Actuation
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q2
Q3
Composite spring
4
Sensing
Your
Boss: Why
Q4
are you working
on this?!
Motor-driven actuation
Q4
2006
Q1
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006
Q1
Useable Baits
5 Baits 10 Baits
Kill Probability
90%
Release Force
1 Nt.
.75 Nt.
Set Force
.8 Nt.
.5 Nt.
Trap MTBF
30 Act.
10 Ft.
Project Portfolio
Luring radius
Rationalization:
Small Varmint Live Traps
Large Varmint Kill Traps
Why am I working
on this?
Q2
Q3
Q4
95%
50 Act.
You: Because this
is
essential to meeting 20 Ft.
your growth target on
schedule.
Technology Roadmapping
28
Technology Roadmapping
29
This is a key cultural issue that supports stage gate process and
stimulates ideation.
Technology Roadmapping
30
Technology Roadmapping
31
Technology Roadmapping
32
Notes:
Strategic Areas of Focus Roadmaps and Technology Roadmaps should
also be used at:
Technology Roadmapping
33
2014.8
Byeongwon Park
Sccience
ience and
and T
Te
ecchnology
hnology Po
olliicy
cy I n
nstitute,
stitute, R
Rep.
ep. K
Korea
orea
[1st Day]
Topic
Morning
Lecture
Afternoon
Exercise
Content
[2nd Day]
Topic
Morning
Content
Afternoon
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jo"ufsnt"pg"bdupst-"
mfwfmt-"hpbmt"boe"
eftjhot"
Gpsftjhiu""
6"
"
Vision
Management Strategy
Strategy Domain
What-Business/Product
Technology
Strategy
Who-Market
How-Technology
Environmental
Analysis
Business
Needs
Capabilities
Focused
Scenarios of
the Future
Team
Formation
Charter
Technology
Alternatives
Technology
Assessment
Technology
Strategy
Roadmaps
(Strategy)
Action Plans
Threats and
Opportunities
Competitive
Intelligence
Ref: SRIC-BI
Example Tools:
Technology
Intelligence
Capabilities
Scenarios
Technology
Assessment
Scenario A
Scenario B
Technology
Roadmaps
Technologies
Single Point
Forecast
Scenario C
Scenario D
Envelope of Uncertainty
Products/
Markets
Ref: SRIC-BI
9
9
10
2004.9
airport
2014.8
54 min
49 min
37 min
Hotel
11
Place A
or, now
spot B
or, desirable
future
12
Vision
f
uf
fuf f rfrff ff
f
nsof
M1
Market
M2
P2
P1
Product
P3
P4
T1
f
ns of
T2
Technology
T3
R&D
programmes
RD 1
Resources
RD 2
T4
RD 4
RD 3
RD 6
f
RD 5
nsof
nsof
13
14
1982
Display
1984
Push button
1985
1987
LEDs
Maps
1u CMOS
Liquid crystal
Fluorescence
Single wire
Glass fibre
Tech.
ch. Forecast
F recast
Digital modulation
RECEIVER 1
RECEIVER 2
RECEIVER 3
Stereo
Plus:
Plus:
Scan
Personal
paging
Seek
Product Plan
1990
Voice actuated
Data
3u CMOS
Vehicular LAN
PRODUCTS
1989
Paging
5u CMOS
1988
SAWs
Stereo
Linear
1986
Ceramic resonators
Subcarrier function
tion
IC technology
1983
NEXT GENERATION
FUTURE GENERATION
N
Plus:
A NEW SERVICE
Stock market
Road information
Remote
amplifie
amplifiers
Remote controls
Super Hi Fi
Local maps
1991
18
19
Technology Roadmapping
Technology Roadmap
(TRM)
20
22
Boundary
of TRM ?
broad
Market Information
Product-Market Analysis
Product-Technology
Options Evaluation
narrow
Roadmap
Creation
Defined
Target
Project
Proposals
Technology Assessment
Identification of Technology
Available/Feasible
23
23
STEEPV
STE
EEP
EE
EPV
EPV
(Social, Technological,
Economic, Environmental,
Political, Value& Norm)
Brainstorming
Porters
Cross Impact Analysis Five Forces
For ideation
Delphi/Expert Panel
Technology Intelligence
(Bibliometrics, Scanning)
Vision
Trends/Driver
Scenario
Market
Business
Innovation
System
Structure
(taxonomy)
Scalable
(hierarchy)
Scenario A
Single Point
Forecast
Product
Service
System
Scenario C
Scenario D
Envelope of Uncertainty
Technology
Resources
Portfolio
Linking
grids
Scenario B
Familiarity
Valuation /
Balanced scorecard
Strategic
Importance
3. Technology development
strategy
Evaluation and prioritization of
technologies
Recommended technologies
6. Conclusion
Recommendations
Implement recommendations
7. Appendices
Roadmapping process
Participants
25
Koreas Experience
-National Technology Road Map
26
. Introduction
Motivation/Objective
History
Approach
. Conclusions
Expected Impact
27
A3 w v| 3
28
29
History
02. 4. 18: Reported to NSTC(National Science and Technology
Council) the plan for NTRM
02. 7. 22: Reported the results of the 1st phase NTRM to NSTC
02. 8. 21: Started 2nd phase NTRM with 800 scientists & engineers
02. 11. 28: Reported the results of the 2nd phase NTRM to NSTC
30
f
Analysis of Industrial Need
5 visions
13 Directions
49 Strategic Product/Functions
99 Key Technologies
NTRM
NSTC Office
Project Team
Vision I
Committe
e
TRM team A
31
KISTEP
Vision II
Committe
e
TRM team B
Vision III
Committe
e
TRM team C
Vision IV
Committe
e
..
Vision V
Committe
e
TRM team N
A3age`3u3H3i|| 3
32
33
Building an informationy
knowledge-intelligence society
Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia
Anytime, Anywhere,
Any-device Communication
34
Ambient Intelligence
ff
f
f f
f f
ff
Optical Internet Technology
High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology
Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology
New Semiconductor Device Technology
Anytime,
Anywhere,
Any-device
Communication
Digital Convergence
Intelligent Computing
Ubiquitous Network
InformationKnowledgeIntelligence
Society
Innovation in
Contents &
Service
Contents
E-Commerce
S/W Standard/Design/Reuse
E-Finance Technology
Business Service
Knowledge/Information
Security
Intelligent Man-Machine
Interface
Ambient
Intelligence
Intelligent Robot
Intelligent Building/Home
Intelligent Transport System
Intelligent Medical System
35
Bio-Diagnosis Technology
f
f
f f
nxtvyf fjffxvv{oof
s f
nx~t}f fjffxvwvof
f f
n}|{ffjffxvvzof
f f f
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f
f
f f
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f f
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s f
u f f
f f
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f
f
f uf
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f f
nw{}f fffxvwvof
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f
f f
nw}ffjffxvv{f
Low
f
f
f f
36
Middle
f f
ff
Potential
for success
Competitiveness of
domestic technology
f
ff
f
narrowband CDMA
modem
QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code
Technology
Fixed ATM/IP
fNetwork
interworking(GW)
fDO/GPRS
f
Product
ff
IP-based RAN
with smart antenna
High-speed adaptive
RAN
Homogeneous network
Integration
ff
DO/DV/GPRS enhancements
ff
Adhoc, Bluetooth
ff PAN
2007
2002
2G cellular system
HMI/Hot Spot system
Cdma20001x EV system
Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV
W-CDMA system/ HSDPA
Importance
37
IP-based RAN
high
low
R&D strategy
2012
4G mobile comm.
basic research
international collaboration
applied research Outsourcing
2. Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia
Building a society with a high quality of life from meeting the
increased demand for high-quality therapeutic agents and timely
supply of new
diagnosis, prevention & therapy
New Drug
Discovery &
Development
38
Innovation in Disease
Treatment, Diagnosis
& Prevention
ff
f
New Drug
Discovery &
Development
Aiming
at
BioHealthtopia
f ff
f
Cardiovascular
Anticancer Agent
CNS
CN
Focused
Pulmonary
P
u
Area
Metabolism
Me
Immune System
Vaccines
Diagnostics
Innovation
in Disease
Treatment,
Diagnosis &
Prevention
Rehabilitation System
Medical Imaging System
Cell Therapy
Gene Therapy
Prognostic System
39
ff
High-Throughput Screening
Target Identification
Target Validation
Drug-Likeness Evaluation
Eva
Drug Candidates Optimizatio
Optimization
Mass Production
Formulation
Drug Delivery System
Safety & Efficacy Evalua
Evaluation
Clinical Studies
Lead discovery
Bio-Signal Analysis
Bio imaging
Bio-imaging
Bio Robotics
Bio-Robotics
Bio-chip
Bio
chip & Sens
Sensor
Biomaterials
Stem Cell
Gene Deliver
Delivery System
Physiological Function M
Monitoring
Bioinformatics
Application of Bio
Bioinformation
f
f
fff of
ff
fff
Gene
nx
nxvwvf
f
zrvv
zr
zrvvvf
vvv
vv
v
f
ff
therapy
f f f f
Cardinxvw
nx
vwx
vw
x
nxvwxf
f
f
f fff oof
wrwz
wrwz
vascular
of
o
f ff
Anticancer
nxvwxf
f
Agent
vvf f f fof
nxvwxf
nxvwxf
f f f
Immune
f y{~f f
System
Economic
Impact
f
f
nxvwxf
f
nxvwxf
ff
fff
uf
u f f
Diagnostics
nxvwvf
f
wv}f f fof
f f f
Metabolism
f |v{f
fff of
fff of
fff f f
Pulmonary
f yz{f
f ffff
f System
fff
Medical
Imaging
nxvwvf
f yyt~f f fof
fff of
f f
Vaccines
f wz~f f fff of
f
ffff
ff fff ff
Rehabilitation
nxvwvf
f w{ytzf f fof
Sy
System
f fff
f ffff
Cell
therapyfff ff
nxvwvf
f ffff System
f fff
Prognostic
nxvwvf
f xzwf f f fof
f w{vf
fff of
f
f
f f
40
f f
ff
ff
f f
Pleasant and
Healthy Life
41
ff
f
f ff
f
ff
Air-Pollution Reduction Tech.
Reduction of
Environment
al Pollution
Pleasant and
Healthy Life
Advancing
Energy/
Environment
Frontier
Recycling
System
Harmonizing
with
Environment
Management
of
Sustainable
Ecosystem
Supplying
Efficient,
Stable
and Clean
Energy
Efficient Use
of Energy
Acquisition of
Future Energy
Source and
High Value
Added Energy
42
Very
High
High
Economic
Impact
Reduction of
Environmental Pollution
Middle
Recycling System
In Harmony
with Environment
High
Efficient Use
of Energy
Middle
Management of
Sustainable Ecosystem
Low
Potential
For success
Very
Low
Very Low
43
Low
Low
Middle
High
Very High
Strategic Importance
Transportation Vehicles
and Systems of the Futuref
Advancing residential
and social infrastructure
44
ff
f
f ff
f
ff
New Automotive System Technologies (Hybrid,
Intelligent, Fuel Cell)
Transportation Vehicles
and Systems of the Future
Upgrading
Current
Main
Industries
User-friendly advanced
construction
Sustainable natural resources and
effective development of national
land
Next Generation
Manufacturing
and Mechatronics
Clean Manufacturing
ManufacturingSystem
System Technology
Intelligent Robot Technology
Nano Materials
Highly Functional Metals/
Ceramics/ Polymers/ Textile
45
ff
f f
f ff
uf ufuf
f
f
f uf
f
f f
f f f
ff
ff
f
f f
User-friendly
advanced
construction
f ff
f f
Economic
Impact
High
ff f
nfof
f
f f f
Middle
Low
Potential
For success
f
f
ff\f ff f
f f
46
Strategic Importance
ff
47
ff
f
f ff
f
Development of
Satellite
Entering into
the Aerospace
Age
Improving
National
Strategy
and
Prestige
Development of
Launch Vehicle
Development of
UAV
Development of
Helicopter
ff
Establishment of
Food
Self-Sufficiency
Establishment of
Bio-resources
Self-sufficiency
48
ff
f
Establishment of
Food Self-Sufficiency
Development of
Satellite
Economic
Impact
High
Development of
Helicopter
Development of
UAV
Middle
Establishment of
Bio-resources Self-sufficiency f
Development of
Launch Vehicle
f
f
f f
49
Strategic Importance
ff
Low
Potential
For success
A3V v
50
| 3
Expected Impacts f
Enhance the national R&D investment with the optimal utilization
of limited R&D resources
Promote coordination and synergy among industry, academia,
and government in technology development
51
Implementation
52
53
54
55
56
gxv{ z3etw3`t | z3
gt| | z3cvx3
57
Vkog"
58
Describe the
desired future
when the vision
is achieved
ff
ff
f
Goal
(Discrete/
Audacious)
ff
ff
ff
ff
59
f
f
f
60
f
f
61
of
62
f
f
63
f
f
f
f
f
f
ff ff f
64
z ff
{ f
65
66
67
f f
f
f
f f
68
f f
f f
69
70
71
Template
Short term(+__ y)
Mid(+__ y)
Time
Long term(+ y)
Vision : :
Etkvkecn"
Hwpevkqpcnkv{"3"
Rgthqtocpeg"Kpfkecvqt1vctigv"
Etkvkecn"
Hwpevkqpcnkv{"3"
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3"
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Mg{"Vgej"
4"
Mg{"Vgej"5"
72
Many Thanks !!
Q&A
1.
Innovation Planning
Regional Promotion
Manpower Policy
Process Enhancement
TECH+ Forum
1.
Table of Contents
1960s~90s
1970s~90s
First phase
of
industrialization
Brand
development
Made in Korea
13
14
(%)
15
16
17
18
19
II
IV
III
20
21
22
23
24
25
Table of Contents
Target
Creative Economy Realization through Manufacturing Industry Innovation
Directions
- Create Value-added & Competitive Edge through Convergence with IT and S/W
- Create Business Environment for Manufacturing Industrys Innovation
3 Strategies
Building Core Capacity for Nations
Key Industries
6 Challenges
Sophisticating Material & Components
Strengthening Soft-power in Manufacturing
industry
Strengthening Manufacturing
Innovation Infrastructure
Strategy 1.
Building Core Capacity for Nations Key Industries
- Automatic Parking
- 360 Degree Sensor
Petrochmistry
Shipbuilding /
Marine Plant
Steel
General
Machine
Semiconductor
/ Display
Strategy 2.
Creating New Manufacturing Industries with
Convergence
3D Printing Manufacturing
- 6 Regional Manufacturing Innovation Center to Promote SMEs 3D Printing Use
- 3D Printing Education for Current Workers & Prospective Business Founder
11
Strategy 3.
Strengthening Manufacturing Innovation
Infrastructure
3D Printing Manufacturing
- 25 Outdated Industrial Complex Renovation
- Business-Academia Convergence Complex Establishment
13
14
Table of Contents
What is a Technopark?
Definition
Technopark refers to an
industrial and
technological complex
Personal, material and
technological resources
are gathered into a single
place, integrating
businesses / academic
institutions / research
facilities and
governments
Regional
Industry and
Policy
Planning
Fostering
Small-butStrong
Businesses
Nurturing Regional
Industries and
Strengthening National
Competitiveness
Stronger
Cooperation
among
Related
Parties
Technopark is aimed at providing multiple functions such as Biz Start-Up, R&D, R&D
Commercialization, Industrial Production and more
Regional Innovation System based on Technopark
Technopark-Leading Regional Development Concept
Integrated Support
Government
Policy, Information,
Resource, Coordination
Policy
Consultation
Input
Financial
Support
Policy Support
Industry
Growth
R&D
Regional
Development
+
Education & Training
Academy/Institute
Technopark
Private
Advanced HR supply,
R&D Innovation
Commercialization,
New Tech Dev.
Collaborative R&D
Technology Transfer
+
R&D Commercialization
+
Industrial Production
+
Test-Bed
R&D Funding
Technopark,
Innovation hub for Regional Development as well as
Regional Hub for Natioal & Global Innovation
Source: Deloitte Analysis
Private-led
Development
00~04
97~00
Public-driven
Development
Incubation
Established
ground for
industrial
development
Support via
both
legislation
and financing
Promoted
balanced
development
across region
Support via
financing
mostly
Reinforced
technical
support and
global window*
Stand-alone
TPs with less
public
facilitation
Gyunggi Daejin
Bioenergy, Media,
Fabric, LED, etc.
Gangwon
Bio, Medical Equip.,
Plasma, etc.
Seoul
Manufacturing Equip.,
Convergence, etc.
Chungbuk
Bio, Semiconductor,
Fuel cell, etc.
Songdo
Autoparts, Bio, Nano,
Digital design, etc.
Daegu
Nano, Bio, Mobile, IT
convergence, etc.
Gyunggi
Electronics, Bio,
Autoparts, Robot, etc.
Pohang
Nanoelectronics,
Metal, Energy, etc.
Chungnam
Electronics, Culture,
Autoparts, Bio, etc.
Gyoungbuk
Machinery, IT,
Life science, etc.
Daejeon
IT, Bio,
High-tech parts, etc.
Ulsan
Auto, Chemical,
Shipbuilding, etc.
Jeonbuk
Machinery, Bio,
Culture, Tourism, etc.
Gwangju
LED, Optical,
Autoparts, etc.
Busan
Marine, Video, IT,
High-tech Future, etc.
Jeonnam
New material, Bio,
Shipbuilding, etc.
Jeju
Bio, Beauty, Water,
MICE, etc.
Gyoungnam
Aerospace, Robot, IT
convergence, etc.
* In 2010, Korea Technopark Association was officially invited to Thailand Science Park for launching and co-operating Korea Technology Business Incubator
Source: Korea Technopark Association
TPs cover current major, next generation and soft industries, and experts with higher
academic backgrounds are leading their development
Current State of Korean Technopark
Industry Coverage of Korean TPs
Skillful Manpower
Headcount
TP
Industry
Automobile
Shipbuilding
ICT
Electronics
Fiber
Chemical
Energy
Machinery
Honda
LED Display
IT convergence
Bio
Nano
Robot
New Material
Contents
755
Current
Driving
Force
Industry
541
52.2% of
Total
321
Workforce
99
Next
Gen.
Industry
Soft
Bachelor
Master
Ph.D
Other
1,716
Total
Korean TPs have successfully contributed to regional / national economic growth via
expansive support to participating SMEs
CAGR (06~09)
Total Revenue
63.3%
68.5%
126,000
30,000
952
2006
61.3%
29
4,142
Outcome
Employee #
Tril. KRW
2009
2006
2009
2006
2009
Infrastructural Aid
Technology
Commercialization
Network Development
Other Supports
Tech. Transferred
Forums Held
Participant Companies #
44.0%
80.3%
31.7%
52.6%
Pillars
322,300,000
1,303
570
107,900,000
2006
217
402
37
2009
2006
2009
2006
Note: Data after 2009 is not collected and/or published by the responsible entity (Korea Technopark Association)
Source: Korea Technopark Association
1,429
2009
2006
2009
Furthermore, Korea can be the best role model for Peru by setting an integration of
technopark model and Industrial Complex model
Koreas Integrated Experiences in Industrial Complex and Technopark
Petrochemical, Textile Complex
Ulsan, Guro
1960
1970
1980
1990
Export-Centric Industrialization
By Industrial Complex
1995~
High
Reinforcement
for regional
Hub function
Level of Innovation
Phase 2:
S/W focused
Innovation
Key Project 2:
Low
Phase 1:
H/W focused
Innovation
Low
High
Level of Convergence
Tech-based
company
incubating
47
2. Technology Support
Technology Transfer
Technical Services to Firms
Pilot Production
4. Cooperation Networking
Biz to Biz Cooperation
Technical Cooperation
1.
The key of strategy and policy planning targeting of industry, product and technology
Industry
Industry
value chain
Enterprise
Plan
Do
See
Technology
Technology
Roadmap
50
Technology forecast /
potential technology
exploration
Forecast of future
society/market
Industry value chain
Patent, paper analysis
Portfolio analysis
Resource analysis
Technology acquisition
strategy
Budget allocation
Technology roadmap
R&D Project
Management
Technology
development strategy
Technology
development
management
Team leadership
Human resource
management
Information collection
management
Intellectual property (IP)
management
Commercializ
ation
-
Business model
Entrepreneurship
Technology
acquisition/integration
Technology evaluation
Technology finance
Production
management
Technology marketing
management
Industry-academicresearch cooperation
M&A, foundation, care
Business model
including service
innovation, reflecting
recent trend of
servitization
51
Patriot Missile
Customized
research
Expert based
Information based
Picture: Dr.
Tool based
P analysis tools
52
$ 1 trillion
Million USD
Million USD
Multi-polarization
5 R&D
powerhouses
USA
Japan
China
Germany
Korea
A company should choose technology to challenge, and clearly set the application area
Company should investigate and summarize a wide range of target
technologies to be innovated
More than 7,300 future technologies were announced in the last 5
years KISTI (2012.12), White paper on future technologies 2013
- Introducing 500 future technologies
55
Success
Fail
Reference
(unwritten)
1.7 Launches
57
problem of Japan
World s 2nd science and technology power, but continuous decrease in industrial power for last 10 years
- Low rank in contribution rate of TFP (Total Factor Productivity) among major countries
- Decrease of private enterprises R&D profit rate
- The power of basic science technology is not effectively transferred to new product and market
development
The competitiveness of science and technology is not related to industry, leading to a failure
The fall of Japanese companies in the rapid growth stage of the market
- Dominant status of Japanese companies in the initial stage of product development falls
in the global mass distribution stage
Share
DVD
player
Liquid crystal
panel
DRAM
Memory
Japan s
manufacturing
industry has
inherent structural
problem
Car
navigation
Solar
power
panel
Year
58
1.
Planning Environments
Vision
Goals / Objectives
Strategy
Tactics
Required Resources
Budget
Idea review
Market analysis
Not watching
customers
carefully
Not
suggestin
g good
ideas
Evaluation,
decision
Determining
improperly
Planning
Research,
development
Having
weak
developmen
t capability
Prototype, test
Mass
production
Easily modifying
customer
evaluation
Development
Failure
61
check
Technology
seeds
marketing
62
specification
Usual
case
Future research
Procedure
of R&D
planning
and
roadmap
planning
Macro
environment
analysis
Global
industry
and
competition
analysis
Target vision
derivation
Top Brand
derivation
Tech Tree
design
Capability,
strategy
analysis
Target
product
derivation
Concept Shaping
Future Study
Portfolio analysis
Patent analysis
Target
technology
derivation
Technology
acquisition
strategy
R&D Planning New Business and New Technology Exec. Process (Case of S company)
Business
opportunity
navigation
Business domain
derivation/Entity
determination
6 months
Month 1
Month 6
Macro environment
analysis (every 3 years)
Strategic
themes
derivation
Commercializ
ation projects
6 months
New business/
promoting
subject
determination
Business
strategy
establishment
Launch
deliberation
Management/e
valuation
3 months
Month 12
Strategy
execution type
Month 15
Technology
acquisition
subject
determination
Necessary
technology
acquisition
strategy
GTO
(Global Tech Outlook)
Business task
performance
Project
planning
Task
performance
Launch
deliberation
Strategy lead
type
Pioneer Research
Opportunity Research
Creative Individual Research
Transfer
Transfer
Complete
evaluation/
transfer
evaluation
66
Concept/Vision
Shaping
Information
Portfolio
selection
67
3P analysis
Business
- Integrated platform
- Competitive Intelligence
Making information collection & analyzing system, process,
and method intelligent
- Intelligent decision making
Korea reached the level of developed countries in terms of R&D investment and
technology level. However, there are difficulties resulting from waste of R&D funding in
the early stage of the planning.
69
1.
Table of Contents
72
73
74
75
76
Table of Contents
Background
World Class Green & Advanced Country
27 Focused Technologies
Focused
Area
75
Candidates
3 Contributive Factors
- Economic Growth
- Environmental Sustainability
- Strategic Importance
Energy
sources
Energy
Efficiency
Environmental Protection,,
Resource Circulation
Non-siliconized,
Solar Battery,
Improved Lightwater Reactor
Lighting LED,
Green IT,
Secondary Cell
Battery
Low-polluting
vehicle, Ecology
Space
Substitute Water
Resource, Climate
Predict, CCS
27 Key Technologies
Nonpolluting
Economic
Activities
Virtual Reality
Challenges
Energy
Fossil Fuel Exhaustion, Mass Energy Import
Solution
Energy Self-reliance
(Solar Battery, Atomic Energy, Lighting LED,
Smart Grid, etc.)
Environment Protection
(Climate Predict, CCS, Water Management,
Toxic Material Management)
4 / 27
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 ~ 2020
Improved light-water
Reactor
Commercialization
Demonstration
& Supply
Silicon Solar
Battery
Commercialization
2021 ~ 2030
APR+(1500 Mwe)
Base Technology
Fuel Commercial
Production
(450,000~1,800,000 TOE)
Home system
(1 kW)
Atomic Fusion
Demonstrator Set-up
(>1 GW )
Crystalline Silicon,
Silicon Film
Solar Battery Module
Base Technology /
International Cooperation
Energy
Source
Technology
Base Technology
Original Technology
/ Platform Set-up
Base
Technology
Base Technology
11 / 27
1.
Future study
Procedure
of R&D
planning
and
roadmap
planning
Macro
environment
analysis
Global
industry
and
competition
analysis
Target vision
derivation
Top Brand
derivation
Tech Tree
design
Target
product
derivation
Capability,
strategy
analysis
Concept Shaping
Future Study
Portfolio analysis
Patent analysis
Target
technology
derivation
Technology
acquisition
strategy
www.millennium-project.org
Year
country
1st
11
Britain
2nd
1
Britain
15
rd
3 Britain / USA
Germany
Bubble prosperity
TURNING
POINT
Canal mania
Railway mania
173 7
14 50
Infrastructure bubbles
of first globalisation 10 5
4th
10
USA
5th
11
USA
Internet mania
and financial casino
Europe
12 33
USA
12 43
2000 &
2007/
-????
DEPLOYMENT PERIOD
Golden Age prosperity
Maturity
The Great
British leap
The Victorian Boom
Global Sustainable
Golden Age ?
Source : Carlota Perez(2002), Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages
Understanding the essence of future innovation by comprehending the big flow of the world
The resource productivity should be increased more than four times to respond to population growth
Innovation in ecosystem is
needed
Source : Carlota Perez(2002), Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages
12/14/2014
91
5. Scenario Planning
Developed by RAND corporation in 10s. Originating from famous future
researcher/military strategist Herman Kahn s future-now thinking
technique.
- RAND(Research and Development): Institute established by US military after WWII.
- Both scenarios and Delphi are from Defense area
- Nonprofit corporation
- Studying on 1,000 topics per year
SRI(Stanford Research Institute): introducing Long-Range Planning around the same time
- Creating scenarios with various methods
- Naming selected desirable future as official future
In the early 10s, world top-level Fortune 100 companies adopted scenario planning after
oil shock but it was confused with storytelling and could not give the answer for the
future short lived
After mid 10s, Porter (15) suggested Five Forces theory in planning Consulting
firms developed specific methods for scenarios
Reference: T. J. Chermack(011), Scenario Planning in Organizations How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios
93
Single point
forecast
Today
Range of
uncertainties
Trends
time
2. Gather information
Advanced work
Deriving driving
forces
Cross-analyzing
driving forces
Scenario planning
95
source: Chermack(011)
96
announced in 2004
announced in 200
announced in 2012
A Transformed World
pp.
Addition: Technology
Breakthroughs by 05
98
A Transformed World
Megatrends
Game-Changers
Potential Worlds
100
6. Technology Foresight
Technology Foresight
Future study is a
duty of the
government in
Europe and
America
Technology Foresight
First Round of Foresight (14 - 1)
Technology Foresight
Current Projects
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Ageing society
Environments for health
Exploiting the quanta
Intelligent buildings
Learning for life
Open-source creativity
Personal environmental impacts
Resilience managing future shocks
Resource depletion
Sustainable energy management
Water management
1.
From Macro to Micro How To Take Mega Trends from Information to Analysing New Opportunities
Foreign Organization
Deloitte
AT Kearney
Roland Berger
Investment Bank
/ Infomediaries
Research
Institute
KISTI (Korea)
KISTEP (Korea)
KIET (Korea)
Global
Company
DuPont
BASF
Alcatel-Lucent
10
UN
NIC(U.S.)
IMEMO(Russia)
METI(Japan)
NISTEP(Japna)
CSIRO(Austrailia)
Credit Suisse
Morgan Stanley
ROBECO
Economist
Economist Intelligence
Unit
Frost & Sullivan
PEST
Framework
PESTLE Framework
Political
Economic
Social
Technological
Legal
Economic
Leveling
/Regrouping
Considering Characteristics
of Organizations
Mega Trend Derivation
Level & Units of Trend
Analysis Framework
Identifying Influence on
Industries & Regrouping by
Technology Identification
Purpose
Regrouping by Technology
Development Driving
Factors
Strategic
vision
Combining extrapolation
and retropolation
Business
plan
Extrapolation
(roadmap based)
Strategy
Customer
Current
business
Competition
-product
-technology
-Consumer
demand
Retropolation
(scenario based)
-New product
-technology
-New customer
demand
Resource
Energy
Power Generation/Transmission
Power Distribution/
Compression, Expansion &
Ventilation/
Mechanical Drives/Services
Industry
Automation/
Building Technologies/
Drive Technology/
Lighting (OSRAM)/Mobility
Scenario
(future
image)
Mid-term
Population
change
Technology
development
Economics
Climate
change
Healthcare Infra
Healthcare IT
Medical Imaging
Therapy System
Short-term
Society
Environment
Health/med
ical
Capability
Current
Important
component/driving
force/mega trend
Policy
Long-term
Germany
in
2050
Energy
system
111
short but
2012 Outlook
(15 pp.)
Systems of People
Outcome-based Business
Resilient Business and Services
The Future of Analytics
The Future Watson
113
http://www.technologyreview.com/
116
MITs
10
Emergi
ng
Techno
logies
04
06
08
10
12
Diffusion Tensor
Imaging
Surprise Modeling
Cloud Programming
3D Transistors
Microfluidic
Optical Fibers
Cognitive Radio
Probabilistic Chips
Social TV
Facebooks Timeline
IT
BT
NT
Conv.*
Distributed Storage
Pervasive Wireless
Reality Mining
Faster Fourier
Transform
Universal Translation
Universal
Authentication
Offline Web
Applications
Bayesian Machine
Learning
Stretchable Silicon
Atomic
Magnetometers
Crowd Funding
RNA Therapy
Nuclear Reprograming
Cellulolytic
Enzymes
Mobile 3D
Nanopore
Sequencing
Personal Genomics
Epigenetics
Connectomics
Implantable Electronics
Ultra-efficient
Solar
Nanowires
Comparative
Interactomics
Wireless Power
Green Concrete
Lightfield Photography
T-Rays
Nanomedicine
Graphene Transistor
Solar Fuel
Solar Microgrids
Synthetic Biology
Nano-Bio
Mechanics
Nanoradio
Light-trapping
Photovoltaics
High-Speed Materials
Discovery
Others
117
Social values
User & Audience Behaviour
Social Media
User & Audience Interfaces
Media Content
Gaming
Media Companies & Their
Features
Media Technology
Professional Journalism
118
Reports of
international public
organizations are
important sources
for future research
119
13.
Building an
Energy
management
System
120
15. Korea begins future outlook on technology 10 potential technologies after 10 years
Bio Plactic
4G+
Superconducting Power
Transmission
Digital Holography
Natural Agrichemical
Investigation by 41 experts,
KISTEP, March 01.
Samsung SDS, ICT Mega trend, every year
Spin Transistor
Wrap up
continuously
1.
Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
125
Mega Trends
Contents
S1 : Demographic Change
S : Aging Society
S : Urbanization
S4 : New Consumer
T1 : Digitization
T4 : Energy Efficiency
T5 : Robo Slaves
E1 : More Globalizing
E4 : Peak Oil
En : Ecosystem at Risk
En : Natural Disaster
P1 : Resource Nationalism
P : Global Regulation
S: Urbanization
Growing Needs for Mega Buildings
T5 : Robot Slaves
Growing Needs for Robots
S4 : New Consumer
Growing Needs for Energy, Water, Food,
Basic Material
E4 : Peak Oil
E5 : Other Commodity Challenge
Development
of Efficient
Energy Use
T4 : Energy Efficiency
Weaponization of
Natural Resources
T : ICT Convergence/smart
Digitalization of
Manufacturing Sector
T1 : Digitization
P1 : Resource Nationalism
P : Global Regulation
T :Bio Technology
126
Framework(STEEP)
S1 : Demographic Change
Social
S : Aging Society
S : Urbanization
T1 : Digitization
textiles
Environmental
En : Ecosystem at Risk
En : Natural Disaster
P1 : Resource Nationalism
Political
shipbuilding
plant/engineering
T4 : Energy Efficiency
Economic
automotive
S4 : New Consumer
T : ICT Convergence / Smart
Technological
15 Industries*
Production system
Production
Metal / materials
Chemical process
robotics
bio
Medical device
RFID/USN
Knowledge service
Nano convergence
IT convergence
* Compared with other industries, IT convergence industries and nano fusion industries are industrial zones that could affect technology Trend.
127
CO2
Type
,
Trend
Industries
Influenced by
Mega Trend
EN
Ecosystem at
Risk
Le/Re
Global
Environment
Regulation
EN
Peak Oil
Chemical
Processing
Automotive
Vehicle CO
Emission Cut
Electronic
Vehicle
CO Emission
Free Vehicle
Existing
Internalcombustion
Emission Cut
Fuel Efficiency
Improvement
Hybrid
Engine
Exterior Material
Change
Carbon
Fiber
High-toughness
Steel Sheet
Weight
Reduction
Nonferrous
Metals
Substitute
Engine Block
Material Change
Steel
Casting
Aluminum
Casting
128
Industries
Indirectly
Influenced by
Mega Trend
Metal Material
Industry
Wellness
1.
of
Uncertainty
Knowledge gaps
Complexity
(~170s)
Motorola
Introducing roadmap concept to academia in 1987
(but already made in 1982)
Introducing On-Line TRM named Vision Synergy, in
the early 2000s
Paper based TRM Digitalization TRM
Evolution to On-line Creation TRM
Albright Group
Suggesting various methodologies regarding TRM in
business perspective
Reporting the effect of TRM which connects technology
planning and business strategy in the late 1990s
Suggesting various concepts of TRM with Motorola
case
- Global platform based product roadmap
- Source science/technology roadmap
- Convergence technology roadmap
134
Tuning
Selectivity
12
13
Push button
Display
15
16
10
5u CMOS
11
Data
Maps
3u CMOS
1u CMOS
Liquid crystal
Designing
human dream
Fluorescence
Single wire
Digital modulation
PRODUCTS
Voice actuated
Paging
LEDs
Vehicular LAN
SAWs
Stereo
Linear
17
Ceramic resonators
Subcarrier function
IC technology
14
Glass fibre
500 kHz bandwidth
RECEIVER 1
RECEIVER 2
RECEIVER 3
Stereo
Plus
Plus
Scan
Personal
paging
Seek
NEXT GENERATION
FUTURE GENERATION
Plus
A NEW SERVICE
Stock market
Road information
Remote
amplifiers
Remote controls
Super Hi Fi
Local maps
136
Richey, J. and Grinnel, M.(004), Evolution of Roadmapping at Motorola, Research Technology Management, 47(), -41.
137
Portfolio Analysis
Selection
138
Meaning of market-driven
Focus moving from R&D planning
to R&BD planning
Portfolio analysis
meaning of selection
140
Recent roadmaps
Developing in order of Future insight
project
market
product
technology
142
T-Plan aims
To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes
Product
Technology - Charting
001
144
145
Workshop 1
Market
Performance
dimensions
Market / business
drivers
Prioritisation
SWOT
Gaps
Setting up
the process
Workshop 2
Product
Product feature
concepts
Grouping
Impact ranking
Product strategy
Gaps
Workshop 3
Technology
Technology
solutions
Grouping
Impact ranking
Gaps
Workshop 4
Roadmapping
Linking
technology
resources to
future market
opportunities
Gaps
Following on
from the process
Cambridge Univ.
Center for Tech Mgt
146
Product
Technology
M2
P2
P1
Product
P3
P4
T1
Technology
Resources
M1
Market
R&D
programmes
R&D layer
T2
T3
RD 1
RD 2
T4
RD 4
RD 3
RD 6
RD 5
147
planning your route to success, p.60 Univ. of Cambridge, Institute for Manufacturing,
148
Search fields for innovations and future markets linking megatrends to technological developments and application potential
Participation of dedicated industry experts and high-ranking
decision-makers
Broadening the technological perspective participation of users
and external experts
Generating knowledge from different perspectives
How should uncertainties be dealt with? Visions of the future and
wildcards
Taking account of possible side-effects and risks
Using various forms of visualization as communication tools
Opening up to social stakeholders
The active, target-group oriented transfer of results
Integrated Technology Roadmapping, Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment, 00
149
Using color
notes
Standing
Conference
Bar
Table
Flow chart
Graph
Graphic(image)
151
Innovation
System
Structure
(taxonomy)
Scaleable
(hierarchy)
Porter s
Five Forces
Market
Business
Foresight
Technology Intelligence
Scenario
Product
Service
System
Technology
Resources
Portfolio
Patent
&
Value Chain
Analysis
Valuation /
Balanced scorecard
Cambridge Univ.
Center for Tech Mgt
152
Market analysis
Trend analysis
Competition analysis
Value Chain analysis
SWOT analysis
Patent analysis
Phase
Addressable
40%
Product C
0%
Product B
Product A
0
1 1 1 000 001 00
Phase 1, 2
close link
50%
Phase
Phase
Market Share
1st Function
2nd Function
Product A
Product B
0%
10%
Product C
0%
1 1 1 000 001 00
Draw
Phase 3, 4
close link
Patent analysis
includes two times
of
macro, micro
analysis
Phase
Fold
In
13.TRM construction
time
Triggers
Drivers
Capability
gap
Technology
Industry Analysis
..
156
Social
Economic
Environmental
Political
Infrastructural
Technological
Cambridge Univ.
Center for Tech Mgt
157
Macroenvironment analysis
S
Society perspective
case of automobile
Policy perspective
of
environmental
internal
combustion
Eco-friendly,
Highly safe/highly emotional,
Highly convenient,
Low CO2
T
Technology perspective
Intensified competition on low
cost car technology
development for entering
emerging markets
Technology convergence for
high value added car
development to respond to
environmental regulation
Economy perspective
engine
Low-emission car
Zero-Emission car
Planning capability>
How earlier was this
forecast made than the
competitor?
Case Impact analysis of social changes (Mega trend) on the car industry
Step4 Extracting functional requirements in technical perspective which satisfies the needs resulting
from the change factors
[ Example of functional requirements from changing factors ]
Mega trend
Future
Population change
Functional requirements
Enhancing stability
tural family
Emphasis on
well-being, welfare
and safety
Reducing CO2,enhancing
fuel efficiency
and
Customized design
2. Market analysis
Lecture 11
Because the concept of market can be defined in many ways, the stat
market size also can be defined in diverse forms.
Professor Hermann Simon (author of Hidden Champion , 2007)
- It is quite difficult to classify market and to estimate the market size
- The definitions of market are usually multidimensional, not onedimensional.
- Especially, for new markets, it is more difficult to get accurate
information about the market size.
- To overcome the limitation of objective and quantified market
information, one should take a step nearer the market and the
customer
160
CAGR
Current size
1/
n
Initial size
n = years
Organization structure
Number of employees and subsidiaries
Key financial information
Flow, history, pro forma financial information
Market position
Market share, geographic market, target customer segmentation
Product portfolio
Main product, price layer
Data source>
Annual report
Analyst s report
Website
Online survey
International firm DB
Interview
Trade association
Industry review
Journals
Industry Expert
latest news
4.
M. Porter
163
Porter, M.E. (17) How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy, Harvard business Review, March/April 17.
Porter, M.E. (10) Competitive Strategy, Free Press, New York, 10.
Porter, M.E. (200) The Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy, Harvard business Review, January 200
164
5. SWOT analysis
SWOT analysis is one of the first methods of strategic analysis, developed by Learned,
Christensen, Andrews, Guth at Harvard University in the 160s (origin of SWOT varies
some say that SWOT was developed by Humphrey at Stanford University)
Basic competitive position and strategy are decided by looking inside for strengths and
weaknesses and looking outside for threats and opportunities
Looking inside
Looking outside
weakness
strength
opportunity
threat
Strategic
decision
165
Internal
analysis
External
analysis
Credibility
Reputation, Image
Economy of Scale
Patent (Original Technology)
Cost-competitiveness, Quality
Strength
Opportunities
Harmful to Objective
SWOT
Analysis
Strategic Absence
Junk Patent, Poor R&D Investment
Limited Distribution Network
High Prime Cost
Obsolete Products
Production Ability Lacking
Weakness
Threats
Is considered after
reviewing ,
Finding critical factor
166
Generally, in Korean TRM, there is one stage for organizing and presenting technology trend.
Technology
trend
Product
trend
Market
trend
Competition
trend 167
Born in 14,
Professor of
Harvard university
Subdividing and analyzing corporate(organizational) activity into a series of valuecreating activities
168
SUPPORT
ACTIVITIES
PRIMARY
ACTIVITIES
Inbound
Logistics
Operations
Outbound
Logistics
Sales &
Marketing
Service and
Support
169
Part
Channel value
chains
Buyer value
chains
Organisation s
value chain
Material
Equipment
Rear industry
Industry Value Chain
Front
industry
170
Analysis form
- When combined with patent analysis, this can create new planning techniques
- Value Chain + Patent Analysis + Player Analysis
- Utilizied in comparative analysis of global business, international competitiveness of
global companies
171
1. Tech Tree
Selecting main products(top brand, theme) through environment analysis and strategy analysis
tech tree construction constructing realistic micro TRM
2 step Process
(1) area/product theme
purpose(definition)
function component technology derivation
(2) Grouping component technologies
core technologies, grouping
target product selection
172
Objective function
Basic function
Secondary function
3 primary functions
Secondary function
3 primary functions
Element
technology
1
3 primary functions
Secondary function
Analysis
target
3 primary functions
3 primary functions
Basic function
Secondary function
3 primary functions
Element
technology
2
n primary function
n primary function
n primary function
3 primary functions
Target
product
1
Element
technology
5
Target
product
2
Basic function
Objective function
)
173
Theme
highly
Integrated
Semiconductor
Mass Information
Storage
Mass Information
Management
Secondary function
3 Primary function
Thin-film Cap
Rerroelectricity Use
Retention Increase
Exchange Bias Soupling Increase
Element technology
Target
product
Interface ThinFilmization
Technology
High Capacity
Semiconductor
Aerosol
Evaporation
Technology
Phase Transition
Material Use
Quantum Dot Use
Mass Information
Reproduction
Ultra
Fast Information
High Speed
Storage
Interface Control
Signal Control
Technology
High Precision
174
Selecting immediately measurable indicators in the laboratory, not quantitative comparison like
5% compared to developed countries
Evaluating current level of competitor or world top level company, and comparing it with the level of
its own
175
Technical lev
el
Emergency
Investment s
cale/level
Lifecycle sta
ge
Technical im
portance
Internal developm
ent
High
Low
Big
Early stage
Core
Low
High
small
Later stage
Peripheral
Co-development
Entrust developme
nt
Outsourcing
176
177
2. Patent Analysis
Data Mining technique and visualization technology enabling patent mapping in 2-3
days (took 6- months before)
Time-series analysis
Quantitative analysis using
bibliometric information
Patent
Mining
Concept Mapping
Concept Clustering
Citation Analysis
178
Effort
Cost
State-of-the-Art Search
Identifying state-of-the-art technology
trends, trends of competitive
technology and R&D theme, analysis
on industry/company, investigating
research institute/researchers
Infringement Search
Patentability Search
Right-to-Make Search
Searching for patents near
expiration date
Continuing Search
Validity Search
Licensee Search
R&D planning
R&D
Patent application
Business
Licensing
Patent litigation
180
Star
Balance of cash
flow
Market growth
Cash Cows
Generate cash
Low
Dilemma
Starting point of
most businesses
Demand high
investment
Dogs
barely generate
cash, or generate
loss
High
Low
Flow of strategy
Flow of cash
181
3-2.
Technology Portfolio Matrix suggested by Booze & Allen. Application of BCG s Product Portfolio Matrix
Bet
Draw
Techni
cal
import
ance
Fold
Cash In
low
Technical maturity
high
1.
2.
3.
4.
Main category
Discovery and application
of Aptamer
Sub category
SELEX
Aptamer Conjugation
Diagnosis-body fluid analysis
Post Translational Modification, protein
complex
5. Metabolite and harmful materials
6. Membrane proteins
7. Point-of care
. Imaging
. Aptamer drug
10. Building block, enzyme production
Technology portfolio analysis
high
4
4
Market
growth
Technology
importance
6
1
2
10
10
low
high
low
Technology maturity
high
183
184
Description
TRL 1
This is the lowest "level" of technology maturation. At this level, scientific research begins to be translated into appl
ied research and development.
TRL 2
Once basic physical principles are observed, then at the next level of maturation, practical applications of those ch
aracteristics can be 'invented' or identified. At this level, the application is still speculative: there is not experimenta
l proof or detailed analysis to support the conjecture.
TRL 3
At this step in the maturation process, active research and development (R&D) is initiated. This must include both
analytical studies to set the technology into an appropriate context and laboratory-based studies to physically valid
ate that the analytical predictions are correct. These studies and experiments should constitute "proof-of-concept"
validation of the applications/concepts formulated at TRL 2.
TRL 4
Following successful "proof-of-concept" work, basic technological elements must be integrated to establish that the
"pieces" will work together to achieve concept-enabling levels of performance for a component and/or breadboard.
This validation must be devised to support the concept that was formulated earlier, and should also be consistent
with the requirements of potential system applications. The validation is "low-fidelity" compared to the eventual sys
tem: it could be composed of ad hoc discrete components in a laboratory.
TRL 5
At this level, the fidelity of the component and/or breadboard being tested has to increase significantly. The basic t
echnological elements must be integrated with reasonably realistic supporting elements so that the total applicatio
ns (component-level, sub-system level, or system-level) can be tested in a 'simulated' or somewhat realistic enviro
nment.
TRL 6
A major step in the level of fidelity of the technology demonstration follows the completion of TRL 5. At TRL 6, a re
presentative model or prototype system or system - which would go well beyond ad hoc, 'patch-cord' or discrete co
mponent level breadboarding - would be tested in a relevant environment. At this level, if the only 'relevant environ
ment' is the environment of space, then the model/prototype must be demonstrated in space.
TRL 7
TRL 7 is a significant step beyond TRL 6, requiring an actual system prototype demonstration in a space environm
ent. The prototype should be near or at the scale of the planned operational system and the demonstration must ta
ke place in space.
TRL 8
In almost all cases, this level is the end of true 'system development' for most technology elements. This might incl
ude integration of new technology into an existing system.
TRL 9
In almost all cases, the end of last 'bug fixing' aspects of true 'system development'. This might include integration
of new technology into an existing system. This TRL does not include planned product improvement of ongoing or
reusable systems.
185
Source: Mankins(1995) TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVELS A White Paper, Office of Space Access and Technology, NASA
1.
1. Roadmapping in Korea
Sep. 200
Jan. 200
Jul. 2007
May. 2007
Aug. 2006
Jul. 2006
Jul. 2006
Nov. 2011
Oct. 2010
Oct. 200
Aug. 200
May. 2006
Oct. 2005
Jan. 2005
Oct. 2004
Sep. 2004
Aug. 2003
Jun. 2003
Aug. 2002
Jul. 2001
Sep. 2000
Growth Stage
( 05 onwards )
1st
Initial Stage
( 00~ 04)0
Why ITB?
8
will lead to R&D projects that are strategic, provide continuity and
achieve competitive advantage
SCOPE
A systematic approach to be utilized as a guideline for planning, evaluating and funding R&D projects for the next 10 years
APPLICATION
Integrated Technology
Blueprint
Technology Roadmap
for R&D programs
Prog.#1
PATENT
STANDARD
INFRA
R&D project #1
Prog.#2
R&D project #2
Prog.#3
R&D project #3
Development Technology
Process
10
Analysis
Analyze megatrends for the 14 strategic areas and derive a core technology
system
(A joint effort involving 4 individuals using a bottom up approach, resulting in the formulation of
,1 core technologies)
Propose annual core technology R&D goals for the next 10 years (through 2017)
Linkage
Link the system with ongoing projects and major roadmaps (Review R&D projects
for the last 7 years)
Link patent analysis results with those of U.S., Japan and the EU
Classification
Integration
Result
R&D Strategies of Core Technologies
11
Technologies By Industries
Core Technologies
Category
High
class
Middle
class
Low
class
Robot
22
Bio
Medical Device
Industry
Shortterm
R&D
Mid-term
R&D
Longterm
R&D
Intl
Cooperation
Total
67
11
177
35
223
11
37
23
76
31
131
13
55
36
100
18
154
Automobile
29
73
51
198
49
299
Shipbuilding
15
41
21
115
31
167
10
40
120
124
222
53
404
28
139
77
370
38
488
Display
75
57
243
37
345
Semi-conductor
27
96
59
215
13
295
ICT Media
11
47
164
102
606
65
773
37
79
449
46
574
Communication Network
BcN
19
72
27
331
32
395
Robot
BioMed Appliance
Delivery System
New Renewable energy
Electric & Atomic Power
Electric Power
Nuclear Power
E-info Device
Result
R&D Strategies of Core Technologies
12
Technologies By 6 functions
Core Technologies
Category
High
class
Middle
class
Low
class
Metal
56
Chemistry
Textile
Industry
Industrial Material
Shortterm
R&D
Mid-term
R&D
Longterm
R&D
Intl
Cooperation
Total
77
69
208
44
326
23
101
29
214
43
287
13
39
59
137
20
216
IndustryTechnology Convergence
40
139
68
340
234
646
Knowledge Service
Knowledge-based Service
41
129
75
382
25
482
Production base
17
63
130
466
196
794
Production System
27
104
16
278
41
335
Green Manufacturing
13
41
25
133
14
172
Information Security
19
99
38
282
15
337
S/W
40
179
128
459
29
10
626
U-Computing
14
79
29
210
31
270
Energy Efficiency
31
97
21
273
16
311
Greenhouse Gases
10
27
59
24
86
Natural Resources
13
41
15
138
27
180
136
621
2,191
1,372
6,681
1,207
56
9.316
S/W
Computing
EnergyResource
Application
Apply to Design Long & Mid term R&D Portfolio
13
Material Generic
Technology
Fundamentality of
Technology
Fundamentality of
Technology
Next Generation
After
R&D Program
R&D Program
Materials &
Components
Technology
Regional
Technology Cluster
R&D Program
Industrial Generic
Technology
Impact
R&D Program
R&D Program
Regional
Technology Cluster
R&D Program
R&D Program
Intra
Industry
Material Generic
Technology
Inter
Industry
Intra
Industry
Impact
Materials &
Components
Technology
R&D Program
Inter
Industry
Application
14
Semi Conductor
Display
Low-resistance transparent
Conductive Oxide Material
Technology
Chemistry
High optical absorption
low-price Si material
technology
High efficiency
photoelectric conversion
technology
Si material technology by
gas reaction method
New &
Renewable
Energy
Nano Thin Film Silicon
Solar Cell(14% efficiency)
Manufacturing
Base
High efficiency
multilayer film coating
technology
Silicon coating
technology
Antireflection film
coating technology
Beyond Opportunities
Preliminary work
Policy
Mid-long
term plan
Project
planning
Evaluation,
management
Post work
Performance
diffusion
R&D strategy
establishment,
demand survey
and project
planning
Operating project
bank
Contents
Agency
MOTIE
KEIT, KETEP,
KIAT
KEIT, KETEP,
KIAT
KIAT
technology
roadmap
KIAT
Technology
Bottom-Up
Project
planning
KEIT
demand survey
planning
KEIT
-
1.
Programs
Contents
Development
Materials & Components Technology
Development
Others
SMEs Globalization
203
Demand Oriented
204
204
205
2. IT
206
207
208
Purpose
209
1.
Technology Transfer
Tech.
commercialization
Technology Business
Incubation
Technology Commercialization fund
Commercialization
investment
Tech. market
Construct technology
market data
Technology Registration
Management System
TV
Verification
Idea evaluation
TS
Tech. supply N/W
Technology transfer
agent
TM
Issue TBS
TI
Technology transfer
institutions
Support technology
transfer expenses
Support technology
evaluation expenses
Support
commercialization
loans
Training Technology
Transfer/evaluation
professionals
Research &
Business Development
Open Innovation
R&D
Our new
market
Internal
technology base
Internal/external
venture handling
External technology insourcing
External technology base
Our current
market
Purpose
External
Technology
Scope
Existing
Technology
R&D
Process
R&D
Technology
resources
Commercial
ization
process
Product
Commercialization
Business
process
Market
Growth
Current state
R&D/GDP
Canada31.1% > korea 26.0% > USA 25.% > EU 22.% (2011)
Budget
R&D
Investment
R&D
Commercialization
Global cooperative
Network construction
Excellent technique
development
Support for
global consulting
Excellent coperation
Overseas expansion
[R&D]
Research
Development
Government
R&D funding
Technology
development
Prototyping
Market
test
Commercialization
Death Valley
Production
[Growth]
Marketing
Corporate
growth
Venture-Capital funding
Cash Flow
(Time)
Business
Expansion
Dynamic force
for creative
economy
Investment Theme
High-tech Convergence
Green Technology
Bio Technology
R&BD
GP
Established time
STIC
00. June
KTB-Meritz
00. Aug
Lindeman Asia
011. Oct
100
IBK-AUCTUS
00. Aug
15
KDB-Daewoo
00. Dec
100.1
Hanwha-OBP
010. Dec
KDBC
011. Nov
50
L&S
011. Oct
40.
Total
27.6
Name
Size
Term
Operation Purpose
MKE
Target for
support
BANK
60% deposit
R&D
supporting
institute
IBK
Guarantee
about 10billion
won loan/year
Guarantee rate
(5% 0%)
Operating
profit
Prime rate
Professional
consulting
Woori
40% deposit
about 120billion
won loan/year
SMEs
(success in
technology
development)
Guarantee fee
0.3%p reduction
Korea
technology
finance
corperation
Overview
Support system : Performing through 4 institutes
Object : Venture, Public research institute
Increase EVA
by 12% every year
Create jobs
64
(KRW Trillion)
37
144
222
'0
350
(10,000 persons)
'13
'1
'0
'13
230
'1
230 1
Alternative Energy
Low-Emission Energy
LED Applications
High Temperature
Water Treatment
Green Transportation
System
High-Tech Green City
IT Convergence
Broadcasting-Telecom
Convergence
Robotics
Materials & Nano Tech
Convergence
Biotech Medicine &
Medical Devices
High Value Added
Food Industry
Global Healthcare
(medical) Service
Global Education
Service
Green Financial
Service
Digital Contents &
Software
MICE &
Tourism Service
MICE (corporate Meeting, Incentive travel, international Convention, Exhibition related industry)
Alternative energy
treatment
(ocean bio-fuel)
Low-emission energy
LED applications
Robot applications
Broadcasting-telecom
convergence
IT convergence
R&D
Lack of Capital
Needed Capital
Available Capital
Capital Gap
Death valley
(New Growth Engine
Fund)
Research
Development
Start-up
Pilot
Growth
Expansion
IPO
Time
Globalization
4,266 Large-size
Companies(0.1%)
Opportunity
4,13 SME-size.
Companies (3.1%)
Area
Succession Issue
2,23,64 Small
size companies
Corporate Restructuring
(6.7%)
Source Small and Medium Business Association ( SMBA )
(200, n 3,022,053)
235
High-Tech
Convergence Fund
Knowledge-based
Service Fund
Entity Type
Fund structure
Management Fee
* After Commitment Period One of the following two options Maximum 2.5% of the invested amount (quarterly average balance)
An incremental decrease in the fee rate over the life of funds
maximum 2.5%
Investment Period
- 4 years (for an -year term), 5 years (for a 10-year term)
Fund structure
Distributions
Each investor will receive an amount equal to all capital contributions they
made.
Hurdle Rate (IRR) Minimum 5%
Carried interest for fund managers 20% of the amount in excess of the
hurdle rate
The option to acquire the shares held by the Korean government , within
the commitment period, is offered to both GPs and LPs.
(Minimum rate of 5year treasury bond +1%)
Keyman Clause
The designated keymen are prohibited from making any further new
investments or raising a new fund until 70% of the total fund has been
invested out.
Geographic Focus
10
Deal Sourcing
Value Add
Globalization
Exit
Global Green
Company
11
Consortium
Deal Sourcing
(SK Energy, LG,
Samsung etc.)
12
Local Investors
Global Investors
Korean Government
(KIAT)
Financial/Strategic
Investors
Pension Fund
Local Bank
Large Corporates
Parallel Fund
STIC
IT Convergence
Fund
(Local Fund)
STIC
Asia Mid Market
PE Fund II
(Global Fund)
Financial Institutions/
FoF/HNWI
Europe
North America
Asia
Middle East
High-Tech
Convergence Fund
(approx. $ 10 million)
IT convergence, broadcasting/telecom convergence, robotics,
materials/nanotechnology convergence, biotechnology medicine
and medical devices, etc.
13
Advisory
Council
General Partner
(Joint Venture)
Limited
Partners
Offshore
Investment
Fund
Fund
Management
Company
Company B
Company C
Company D
14
Co-Fund Management
KB INVESTMENT
BIO Fund
(approx. $ 80 million)
15
ROADMAP
Pgina 1
tambin pueden apoyar a una base de datos corporativa comn de las tecnologas
disponibles o necesarios.
9. Roadmapping comunica negocios, la tecnologa y el producto previsto, los miembros
del equipo de gestin, clientes y proveedores. Con una hoja de ruta, un equipo puede
explicar claramente a los clientes y proveedores en los que se van. Una hoja de ruta
ofrece a los clientes la informacin que pueden utilizar en su propia planificacin, y se
puede utilizar para solicitar su reaccin y orientacin. Con los proveedores, una hoja
de ruta es un marco para el establecimiento de la asociacin y las direcciones. La hoja
de ruta tambin le dice al mayor equipo de desarrollo, la gestin empresarial, y otros
equipos de desarrollo donde se dirige la lnea de productos.
10. Por ltimo, las hojas de ruta se basa el equipo de desarrollo. El proceso roadmapping
construye un entendimiento comn y la propiedad compartida del plan, incorporando
ideas y puntos de vista de los miembros del equipo que representan las muchas
funciones que intervienen en un proceso de desarrollo exitoso.
ROADMAP
Pgina 2
ROADMAP
Pgina 3
ROADMAP
Pgina 4
Pgina 5
ROADMAP
Pgina 6
ROADMAP
Pgina 7
ROADMAP
Pgina 8
Pgina 9
2. Utilice siempre nombres de cdigo en sus documentos de hoja de ruta hasta que hayan
sido aprobados por el equipo de alta direccin para su divulgacin al pblico en general.
Usted no puede estar seguro de que sus documentos la hoja de ruta no se filtraron, incluso
por los altos directivos. Usted puede revisar los nombres en clave a producto final y
nombre de los proyectos cuando son aprobados.
3. comunicados de menores y, comunicados internacionales localizadas a veces no se
muestran en las hojas de ruta de productos o de ingeniera, y que se deben incluir, ya que
con frecuencia entran en el seguimiento de las conversaciones.
4. Crear documentos de hoja de ruta para un pblico interno que son muy especficos en la
informacin y las fechas; documentos hoja de ruta destinada a un pblico externo deben
redactarse en un lenguaje ms vago y terminologa.
5. Presente sus documentos hoja de ruta como documentos editables de adobe pdf - esto
evitar que otras partes internas de su empresa de tomar los documentos de hoja de ruta y
la alteracin de ellos - estas alteraciones pueden aparecer desagradablemente tarde
durante el proyecto (s) como un compromiso hecho a un cliente o cliente por un alto
directivo o ejecutivo, as que tenga cuidado para evitar este escenario.
ROADMAP
Pgina 10
Una hoja de ruta plataforma se utiliza para mostrar lo que ser n las obras de la
plataforma o PaaS (Platform as a Service) que una empresa en particular tiene en fase de
desarrollo. Se utilizan para comunicar la estrategia de plataforma global de esa empresa y
la disponibilidad de APIs (Interfaces de programacin de aplicaciones, bsicamente, los
plug-ins de AMD de plataforma de software de la compaa) y herramientas de desarrollo
para la plataforma de la empresa o PaaS.
Si una empresa ha desarrollado y est apoyando una plataforma en el mercado
actualmente, usted puede estar seguro de que tienen una estrategia de plataforma que se
apoya en socios y clientes que trabajan de cerca con ellos. La necesidad de comunicar la
estrategia de la plataforma de una manera clara y enfocada es muy importante. Ejemplos
de plataformas incluyen Salesforce.com (Force.com), Windoes (Windows Azure Nube),
Amazon S3 y EC2, Google, Apple Mac OS X, Apple iOS, HP webOS, y muchos otros.
Planes de trabajo Visin
Un ejemplo de visin hoja de ruta
Hay momentos en que en el inicio de una demostracin o presentacin, es necesario
destacar para su pblico cmo su producto o productos encajan en un movimiento o
tendencia dentro de la sociedad en general o inductry de su empresa en particular. Esta es
una fantstica manera en la que usted puede construir la emocin y el impulso del
mercado de los productos o servicios de su empresa al demostrar visualmente cmo
encajan en el cuadro grande.
Planes de trabajo de Marketing
Hoja de ruta de Microsoft Windows OS
Una hoja de ruta de marketing comunica a sus grupos de inters internos y externos lo que
el mercado segmenta sus productos y servicios se dirigen, y cmo va a entrar en
cualquiera de los mercados en los que actualmente no est compitiendo. Como tal, este
tipo de planes de trabajo incluyen informacin sobre la demografa y la oportunidad
tamao de cada mercado, y la informacin sobre cmo se va a desarrollar productos y
servicios para hacer frente a cada mercado. La escala de tiempo involucrada en planes de
trabajo de marketing puede abarcar aos.
ROADMAP
Pgina 11
Es muy comn que una organizacin de desarrollo de software para crear y mantener
varias hojas de ruta de ingeniera, adecuados para mostrar a diversas audiencias
segmentadas de las partes interesadas internas y externas y los individuos directamente
responsables. Estos planes de trabajo de ingeniera son sper herramientas para la
actualizacin de los principales clientes y los clientes de su ciclo de lanzamiento y de gran
ayuda en el proceso de gestin del cambio.
Pgina 12
roadmap_template1
Microsoft Visio Plantilla Hoja de ruta simple producto
Plantilla de Microsoft Excel Hoja de ruta del producto
Microsoft Visio Plantilla Hoja de Ruta Complejo Producto
Artculos relacionados
SVN Flashback: hojas de ruta de los productos son peligrosos (37signals.com)
El Start-Up Drive: Startups necesita planificacin. (dannedelko.com)
++++++++++++++++++++++++
ROADMAP
Pgina 13
Planificacin 1. Producto
Descripcin: Este es de lejos el tipo ms comn de la tecnologa de hoja
de ruta, con respecto a la insercin de tecnologa en productos
manufacturados, a menudo incluyendo ms de una generacin de
producto.
Ejemplo: Una hoja de ruta Philips, donde el enfoque ha sido
ampliamente adoptado (Groenveld, 1997). El ejemplo muestra cmo se
utilizan las hojas de ruta para enlazar tecnologa y productos desarrollos
planificados.
2. Servicio / planificacin de capacidades
Descripcin: Similar al tipo 1 (producto la planificacin), pero ms
adecuado para servicio basado en empresas, centrndose en cmo la
tecnologa apoya las capacidades organizativas.
Ejemplo: Una hoja de ruta oficina de correos / aplicacin T-Plan7
(Brown, 2001), que se utiliza para investigar la impacto de los
desarrollos tecnolgicos en el negocio. Esta hoja de ruta se centra en la
organizacin capacidades como el puente entre la tecnologa y el
negocio, en lugar de productos. 2. Servicio / planificacin de
capacidades Descripcin: Similar al tipo 1 (producto la planificacin),
pero ms adecuado para servicio basado en empresas, centrndose en
cmo la tecnologa apoya las capacidades organizativas.
Ejemplo: Una hoja de ruta oficina de correos / aplicacin T-Plan7
(Brown, 2001), que se utiliza para investigar la impacto de los
ROADMAP
Pgina 14
ROADMAP
Pgina 15
ROADMAP
Pgina 16
Proceso de planificacin 7.
Descripcin: Apoya la gestin de conocimiento, centrndose en un rea
de proceso especial (por ejemplo, desarrollo de nuevos productos).
Ejemplo: Un tipo de tecnologa de hoja de ruta, desarrollado usando TPlan para apoyar el producto planificacin, centrndose en el
conocimiento fluye que son necesarios para facilitar nuevo producto
eficaz desarrollo y la introduccin, incorporando tanto tcnico como
comercial perspectivas.
Planificacin 8. Integracin
Descripcin: Integracin y / o evolucin de la tecnologa, en trminos de
cmo las diferentes tecnologas se combinan dentro de los productos y
sistemas, o para formar nuevas tecnologas (a menudo sin mostrar el
tiempo dimensin explcitamente).
Ejemplo: Un roadmap7 NASA (Programa Orgenes - ver # 6), relativa a
la gestin de la programa de desarrollo para el NGST, centrndose el
'flujo de la tecnologa', que muestra cmo la tecnologa se introduce en
la prueba y demostracin sistemas de apoyo a las misiones cientficas.
ROADMAP
Pgina 17