Understanding Trends

Analyzing Trends Spring 2015

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how would you

define a trend?

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what words
come to mind?

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first tip: always consult a good dictionary

words are important to how we frame things
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trendspotting vs.
trend analysis
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is there a
difference?

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trendspotting leads to fads

a skimming the surface to capitalize on culture
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intelligent analysis of culture is the

foundation of trend analysis
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Culture

trends are about why more than what

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time

language

patterns

the mechanics of culture

key elements for understanding change
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past

future

present
patterns

patterns

trends evolve over time

they are about human behavior (how can we analyze that?)
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not
cool

cool

not
cool

past

present

future

patterns

patterns

trend analysis leverages this dynamic view

they are about human behavior (how can we analyze that?)
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analyzing beards
why have beards trended over the last five years?
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beards

1950

1970

1990

2015

analyzing beards over time

does the meaning change? why?
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beards and existential themes

analyzing the state of the human condition
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beards as cultural signifier

men working out concepts of masculinity
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do we drink more coffee today

than in 1945?
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we actually drank more coffee in

1945 (bad coffeebut coffee)
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plus/minuses of tracking by numbers

Google Trends track occurrences of search terms
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language and trends

to understand trends we need a more nuanced

understanding of language
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coee

coee

past

coee

future

present
patterns

patterns

analyzing coffee over time

what other words become associated with coee?
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values

rituals

symbols

analyzing coffee over time

how has the culture of coee evolved recently?
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patterns emerge as cultural systems

systems that create and propel language
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visualizing culture as a dynamic system

how meaning migrates through culture
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collective culture
collective

identity

zeitgeist

spreading the message

cultural saturation
migration

analytical

expressive

patterns

action

symbol

wiring the behavior

counter

establishing the language

counter culture

visualizing culture as a dynamic system

how meaning migrates through culture
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visualizing innovation
the diusion of innovation seeks to structure how ideas evolve
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zeitgeist

influencers

easy to join in

trend conditions give status

expressive

innovators

kinship breeding adoption

counter

the early innovators

community

action

symbolic

analytical

identity

collective

mass market

product innovation as intervention in existing

cultural systems of language and meaning
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analyzing kale
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kale

kale

kale

past

present

future

patterns

patterns

analyzing kale
trends dont appear. they evolve
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values

rituals

symbols

the cultural system of kale

cultural trends represent reappropriation of existing language
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values

rituals

symbols

analyzing the culture of kale

the language of products we consume provide clues
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collective

New Urbanism
Mass Retail

Labeled

Localized Chains

FOOD ZEITGEIST

migration
FOOD AS SYMBOL

Organic Farming

patterns

counter

analytical

Politics

FOOD AS BADGE
expressive

FOOD AS RITUAL

Community Food Co-Ops

Diets

the cultural system of organic

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cronuts

past

future

present
patterns

patterns

analyzing cronuts

the language within cronuts reveals the real story

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values

rituals

symbols

boulangeries rising
what is the language? what does it tell us?
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values

rituals

symbols

food trucks rising

what is the language? what does it tell us?
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analyzing fast food

what foods do we see emerging in culture? what shapes this?
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fast
food

fast
food

fast
food

past

present

future

patterns

patterns

analyzing fast food

how does the context shape the meaning of fast food?
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the ideology of fast food

why do you think McDonalds is advertising like this?
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values

rituals

symbols

analyzing the sharing economy"

is the sharing economy really about just sharing?
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analyzing the sharing economy"

what are the dynamics that make this work in culture?
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Google announces Uber competition

how can we analyze this to predict potential outcomes?
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own

rent

past

present
patterns

future
patterns

analyzing the sharing economy"

what helps sharing evolve as a trend?
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case: cannondale
the meaning of bicycles was not so clear in 2007
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what is a bicycle?
the category was defined by assumptions of behavior
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COLLECTIVE

ANALYTIC

EXPRESSIVE

COUNTER

culture mapping the behavioral

framework for each brand
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underwater bikers
parkour bikers
mountain bikers
snow bikers
cliff riders

COLLECTIVE

pop culture

marathon
cyclists
road racers
track racers
cyclo-crossers
For the
tri-athletes
its about privilege and
reinforcement.

Traditionalists,

Strivers

Freestylers

Pop Mavericks

For
, its about
individuality and instant gratification.

ANALYTICAL

EXPRESSIVE
sensorial

bike messengers
rocket bikers
Bolivias Death Road
bikers
fixed gear urban bike
pirates

bike activists
bike commuters
bike packers/touring
utility bikers
fitness bikers

Realizers

sub culture
COUNTER

Fearless

behavioral archetypes give us the

system of bicycle trends in culture
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the cultures that shape the

meaning of bicycles
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Freestyler
Culture

Striver
Culture

Fearless
Culture

Realizer
Culture

perception drives meaning in the

interpretation of everyday things
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measles outbreak in 2015

why is there a measles outbreak in Southern California?
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anti-vaccination as ideology
does the location of these outbreak tell us anything?
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values

rituals

symbols

that ideology frames how we consume

raw milk has its roots in concepts of governments role
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values

rituals

symbols

the how of food is ideological

the emergence of pot politics has broader cultural implications
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patterns

politics as ideological pattern

the language of debates reflects cultural tensions
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visualizing political signifiers

visualizing the language of the state of the union
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science fiction and the future

sci-fi is less about a precise framing of the future as it is
a struggle to deal with our present state of being
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projecting possible futures

2001 A Space Odyssey was released in 1968.
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imagining the shape of progress

Interstellar frames artificial intelligence with
TARS in a unique way
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imagining the shape of progress

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framing the future as a system of codes

Director Steven Spielbergs Minority Report
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Futurist designer Jenny Lee has

created a series of "digital skins"
that she imagines might grace our
lowly, animal mugs in the year 2060.

the value of privacy in a post-digital world

is this our face in the future?
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framing the future of relationships

What does Her reveal about our present state?
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how does technology shape relationships?

is tech driving the shape of romance and relationships?
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framing the future of class

What does The Hunger Games reveal about our present state?
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framing the future of class

the growing tension in urban centers
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our design shapes our future

are we seeing unexpected outcomes from the Highline?
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our design shapes our future

are we seeing unexpected outcomes from the Highline?
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The Future of_____

developing a strategy for the future

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developing a strategy for the future

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signals

people

brand

innovation is a mating game

we need to synchronize with cultural signals
and conspire in future stories
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INNOVATION

signals

stories
BRAND
ARCHITECTURE

innovation is a mating game

from signal to story... synchronizing brands for
purpose and sustainability
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see you in 2 weeks

assignments are on Canvas

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