Rs/$

exchange rate
exch

year/qtr
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12

3-month forward premium

fr3
48.5
48.9
48.6
48.2
47.7
47.0
46.0
45.5
45.2
44.8
46.1
44.8
43.6
43.6
43.7
45.3
44.3
45.4
46.3
44.9
44.0
41.0
40.4
39.4
39.7
41.6
43.7
48.6
49.7
48.7
48.3
46.6
45.9
45.6
46.4
44.8
45.2
44.7
45.8
50.8
50.2
54.0
55.1
54.2

5.98
5.91
4.14
3.60
3.52
1.98
1.81
-0.13
0.54
-0.25
2.43
2.35
2.10
1.64
0.96
0.94
2.85
0.97
1.12
2.31
4.15
4.69
1.39
1.39
1.19
2.94
4.37
3.31
3.26
3.35
2.68
2.63
3.00
3.34
5.29
6.68
6.92
6.94
5.02
5.60
8.22
7.27
7.16
6.65

Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

54.2
55.8
62.1
62.0
61.8
27.1447280521

7.60
6.90
8.97
8.94
8.86

Operating Exposure
R-square
TCS has the maximum operating exposure
R-square is significant only in HCL and TCS case.So Regression

3-month forward rate

infys
49.28
49.65
49.08
48.66
48.16
47.26
46.18
45.46
45.25
44.79
46.39
45.11
43.87
43.75
43.76
45.45
44.61
45.46
46.41
45.12
44.45
41.51
40.52
39.50
39.84
41.87
44.21
48.98
50.08
49.10
48.62
46.87
46.20
45.98
47.04
45.56
45.99
45.48
46.39
51.53
51.26
54.99
56.12
55.06

infosys
Gain/Loss
2551.4
2573.3
2720.1
3057.9
3117.5
3223.8
3624.9
3903.7
3991.3
4438.5
5110.0
5650.0
6520.0
5980.0
6820.0
7510.0
7980.0
9020.0
10060.0
10870.0
12570.0
11620.0
12070.0
13240.0
13240.0
14170.0
15510.0
17670.0
17780.0
16650.0
16450.0
16760.0
16240.0
16110.0
18280.0
18250.0
19190.0
18450.0
20230.0
24330.0
29630.0
24180.0
25800.0
25130.0

739.2
735.4
512.2
441.4
428.0
236.9
211.4
-15.4
62.5
-28.9
285.1
268.2
233.6
182.2
106.3
108.8
321.6
111.9
131.9
264.1
464.3
490.1
142.5
138.9
119.9
310.9
485.9
408.8
411.7
415.1
328.9
312.0
349.7
387.9
624.5
761.3
795.7
789.8
584.9
723.7
1050.9
999.5
1004.6
916.1

55.21
56.79
63.48
63.38
63.12

25610.0
25000.0
25830.0
30200.0
31920.0
27629.308813861
1017.851744945
0.396

TCS case.So Regression might not be a good idea

1047.8
980.2
1417.2
1410.8
1391.8
-27629.3

hcl

HCL
Gain/Loss
1103.7
1016.7
848.4
790.6
837.3
1141.5
1038.0
949.9
1113.7
724.4
1061.0
929.8
942.3
1035.2
1083.5
3286.3
1690.5
1711.5
2438.7
3101.8
2849.6
4409.9
3142.1
3196.8
3188.1
458.3
3162.1
4586.6
2149.7
2593.6
3692.0
3228.4
3273.0
3112.5
2683.1
3581.2
4013.5
4618.4
4796.3
5802.3
4899.9
7536.4
8004.0
8285.6

mphs
438.3
436.1
303.7
261.7
253.8
140.5
125.3
-9.1
37.1
-17.1
169.1
159.0
138.5
108.1
63.0
64.5
190.7
66.4
78.2
156.6
275.3
290.6
84.5
82.4
71.1
184.4
288.1
242.4
244.1
246.1
195.1
185.0
207.4
230.1
370.4
451.4
471.8
468.4
346.8
429.1
623.2
592.7
595.7
543.2

mphasis
Gain/Loss
170.0
132.0
152.1
194.0
199.8
224.4
283.0
220.5
180.0
128.0
61.7
121.3
226.7
170.1
248.6
195.7
205.9
367.5
424.3
414.4
616.0
658.3
701.5
893.0
824.4
1059.0
1437.7
2187.0
2306.6
2613.6
2631.8
2750.1
2905.2
2700.1
2771.3
2345.1
2413.1
2493.7
1634.3
1778.0
1743.3
1839.4
1893.5
1743.6

31.0
30.9
21.5
18.5
18.0
9.9
8.9
-0.6
2.6
-1.2
12.0
11.3
9.8
7.6
4.5
4.6
13.5
4.7
5.5
11.1
19.5
20.6
6.0
5.8
5.0
13.1
20.4
17.2
17.3
17.4
13.8
13.1
14.7
16.3
26.2
32.0
33.4
33.2
24.6
30.4
44.1
42.0
42.2
38.5

9358.0
15818.7
14152.8
14179.8
15315.8
16384.514538546
603.5984043425
0.661

621.3
1586.1
581.3
1468.0
840.4
1396.0
836.6
1510.3
825.4
914.9
-16384.5 1159.728754313
42.7239039598
0.056

44.0
41.1
59.5
59.2
58.4
-1159.7

orcl

Oracle
Gain/Loss
406.8
471.8
482.9
561.0
358.0
422.5
550.7
389.3
474.1
422.3
438.0
551.7
831.0
167.8
619.3
673.3
1335.6
483.4
1146.0
1052.6
1430.0
724.7
933.9
1274.3
1778.9
1027.4
1218.2
2095.0
3044.9
1619.7
1819.2
2003.5
1540.1
1824.2
2192.9
2552.0
3447.2
1811.9
1737.9
2634.5
5109.2
3401.8
1964.4
2699.9

tcs
86.4
86.0
59.9
51.6
50.0
27.7
24.7
-1.8
7.3
-3.4
33.3
31.4
27.3
21.3
12.4
12.7
37.6
13.1
15.4
30.9
54.3
57.3
16.7
16.2
14.0
36.4
56.8
47.8
48.1
48.5
38.5
36.5
40.9
45.4
73.0
89.0
93.0
92.3
68.4
84.6
122.9
116.9
117.5
107.1

TCS
Gain/Loss

4489.4
3729.2
6734.4
4693.4
6254.7
6766.5
7429.0
8254.7
8653.9
10082.4
10377.1
11893.6
11746.4
12549.2
12969.7
12410.1
12858.7
12759.0
13264.1
12254.9
13896.4
14665.7
16726.1
15590.4
16710.1
19388.2
21909.8
23070.0
22196.9
33609.8
33409.2
27425.6
29948.2
39318.6
34330.8

-69.9
689.7
648.8
565.1
440.8
257.1
263.3
778.0
270.8
319.1
638.9
1123.2
1185.6
344.7
336.1
290.2
752.3
1175.5
988.9
996.0
1004.2
795.8
754.8
846.0
938.6
1510.9
1841.8
1925.0
1910.8
1415.0
1750.8
2542.6
2418.2
2430.4
2216.2

2812.6
3023.0
3273.0
2876.3
2954.8
3230.592071816
119.013609774
0.321

122.5
32294.1
114.6
37031.3
165.7
58694.9
165.0
50571.2
162.7
49257.3
-3230.6 66844.011607371
2462.504375771
0.741

2534.9
2371.5
3428.6
3413.3
3367.2
-66844.0

Wipro
wpr

Gain/Loss
2586.0 486.20567
1986.0 483.73723
2403.0 336.87545
2567.0 290.32247
2556.0 281.51735
2280.0 155.83397
2517.0 139.02918
2839.0 -10.14841
3031.0 41.098527
3640.0 -19.00331
4127.0 187.52275
4263.0 176.39496
4778.0 153.62973
4612.0 119.85229
5115.0 69.898847
5655.0 71.585626
7746.0 211.52478
7002.0 73.629006
7541.0 86.761057
8504.0 173.71066
9163.0 305.372
7787.0 322.33666
8698.0 93.722073
9165.0 91.365401
10299.0 78.888543
6708.0 204.52785
9836.0 319.59368
8681.0 268.86128
9848.0 270.78561
13343.0 273.00907
13901.0 216.36658
13763.0 205.22511
13770.0 229.99888
12461.0 255.17564
13115.0 410.78665
13780.0 500.73392
15082.0 523.36198
13933.0 519.50484
12418.0 384.71659
12514.0 476.00073
15447.0 691.2678
12577.0 657.46346
18167.0 660.77379
15629.0 602.54815

16547.0 689.17974
15148.0 644.74805
18110.0 932.15107
22513.0 927.99615
25471.0 915.46541
18173.446399102 -18173.45
669.5018776476
0.37

Model Summary
Model
R
R Square
1 .813a
0.661
a Predictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate
ANOVAa
Model

Sum of Squ
1 Regression
903311
Residual
334263
Total
3237574
a Dependent Variable: HCL
b Predictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate
Coefficientsa
Model

Unstandardized Coeffic
B
1 (Constant) -24752.51
ExchangeRa 603.687
a Dependent Variable: HCL

CF= -24752

Regression is significan

year/qtr

Adjusted R Std. Error of the Estimate

0.654 2298.6317
ExchangeRate

df
1
47
48

Mean SquarF
903311
5283708

Sig.
91.773 .000b

ExchangeRate

nstandardized CoefficStandardizet
Std. Error Beta
3012.772
63.016
0.813

Sig.
-8.216
9.58

CF= -24752.5 + 603.687X

egression is significant

0
0

exchange r
exch
Mar-02
48.5
Jun-02
48.9
Sep-02
48.6
Dec-02
48.2
Mar-03
47.7
Jun-03
47.0
Sep-03
46.0
Dec-03
45.5
Mar-04
45.2
Jun-04
44.8
Sep-04
46.1
Dec-04
44.8
Mar-05
43.6
Jun-05
43.6
Sep-05
43.7
Dec-05
45.3
Mar-06
44.3
Jun-06
45.4
Sep-06
46.3
Dec-06
44.9
Mar-07
44.0
Jun-07
41.0
Sep-07
40.4
Dec-07
39.4
Mar-08
39.7
Jun-08
41.6
Sep-08
43.7
Dec-08
48.6
Mar-09
49.7
Jun-09
48.7
Sep-09
48.3
Dec-09
46.6
Mar-10
45.9
Jun-10
45.6
Sep-10
46.4
Dec-10
44.8
Mar-11
45.2
Jun-11
44.7
Sep-11
45.8
Dec-11
50.8
Mar-12
50.2
Jun-12
54.0
Sep-12
55.1

Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

54.2
54.2
55.8
62.1
62.0
61.8

3-month
3-month foinfosys
forward Gain loss from Hedging
rate
fr3
infys
5.98
2551.4 49.275751 739.18433
5.91
2573.3 49.652533 735.43152
4.14
2720.1 49.07984 512.15579
3.60
3057.9 48.660458 441.38074
3.52
3117.5 48.157988 427.99421
1.98
3223.8 47.2552 236.91626
1.81
3624.9 46.184176 211.36774
-0.13
3903.7 45.459387 -15.42874
0.54
3991.3 45.254094 62.482584
-0.25
4438.5 44.788923 -28.89097
2.43
5110.0 46.385926 285.09309
2.35
5650.0 45.10976 268.17538
2.10
6520.0 43.868531 233.56512
1.64
5980.0 43.753171 182.21288
0.96
6820.0 43.757738 106.26806
0.94
7510.0 45.445616 108.83249
2.85
7980.0 44.607097 321.58367
0.97
9020.0 45.460822 111.93906
1.12 10060.0 46.411898 131.90388
2.31 10870.0 45.123309 264.0944
4.15 12570.0 44.454657 464.26072
4.69 11620.0 41.514765 490.0523
1.39 12070.0 40.521065 142.48679
1.39 13240.0 39.50215 138.90392
1.19 13240.0 39.83637 119.9352
2.94 14170.0 41.869108 310.94615
4.37 15510.0 44.205027 485.88211
3.31 17670.0 48.980296 408.75304
3.26 17780.0 50.082036 411.67861
3.35 16650.0 49.097856 415.05897
2.68 16450.0 48.618383 328.94472
2.63 16760.0 46.86867 312.00619
3.00 16240.0 46.199459 349.67006
3.34 16110.0 45.98145 387.94659
5.29 18280.0 47.037571 624.52388
6.68 18250.0 45.555913 761.27179
6.92 19190.0 45.989531 795.6735
6.94 18450.0 45.47825 789.80944
5.02 20230.0 46.392389 584.88925
5.60 24330.0 51.525324 723.66962
8.22 29630.0 51.255972 1050.9427
7.27 24180.0 54.988557 999.5496
7.16 25800.0 56.124579 1004.5823

6.65
7.60
6.90
8.97
8.94
8.86

25130.0 55.062161 916.06119

25610.0 55.207907 1047.7682
25000.0 56.79065 980.2182
25830.0 63.479502 1417.1605
30200.0 63.380857 1410.8437
31920.0 63.123477 1391.7931

Model Summary
Model
R
R Square
1 .629a
0.396
a Predictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate

ANOVAa
Model

Sum of Squ
1 Regression
+009
Residual
+009
Total
+009
a Dependent Variable: Infosys
b Predictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate

Coefficientsa
Model

Unstandardized Coeffic
B
1 (Constant) -34519.13
ExchangeRa 1018.71
a Dependent Variable: Infosys

Adjusted R Std. Error of the Estimate

0.383 6690.4297
ExchangeRate

df

Mean SquarF
1
+009
47 44761850
48

Sig.
30.848 .000b

ExchangeRate

nstandardized CoefficStandardizet
Std. Error Beta
8769.017
183.416
0.629

Sig.
-3.936
5.554

0
0

CF= -34519.131 + 1018.71X

Regression is insignificant

Model Summary
Model
R
R Square
Adjusted R SqStd. Error of the Estimate
1 .236a
0.056
0.036 937.59051
a Predictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate
ANOVAa
Model

Sum of Squardf
1 Regression
2441606.15
Residual
41316570.4
Total
43758176.5
a Dependent Variable: MPhasis
b Predictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate

Mean Square F
1 2441606.15
47 879075.966
48

2.777

Coefficientsa
Model

Unstandardized CoefficientStandardized t
B
Std. Error
Beta
1 (Constant)
-890.211
1228.882
ExchangeRat
42.837
25.704
0.236
a Dependent Variable: MPhasis

CF= -890.211 + 42.837X

Regression is insignificant

-0.724
1.667

Sig.
.102b

Sig.
0.472
0.102

Model Summary
Model
1
a Predictors: (Constant), Exchange

ANOVAa
Model
1

a Dependent Variable: Oracle

b Predictors: (Constant), Exchange
Coefficientsa
Model
1
a Dependent Variable: Oracle

del Summary
R
R Square
Adjusted R SqStd. Error of the Estimate
.566a
0.321
0.306 921.48795
redictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate

Sum of Squardf
Regression
18852780.1
Residual
39909582.4
Total
58762362.5
ependent Variable: Oracle
redictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate

Mean Square F
1 18852780.1
47 849140.051
48

Sig.
22.202 .000b

Unstandardized CoefficientStandardized t
B
Std. Error
Beta
(Constant)
-4092.482
1207.776
ExchangeRat
119.034
25.262
0.566
ependent Variable: Oracle

CF= -4092.482 + 119.0347X

Regression is insignificant

Sig.
-3.388
4.712

0.001
0

Model Summary
Model
1
a Predictors: (Constant), Exchange
ANOVAa
Model
1

a Dependent Variable: TCS

b Predictors: (Constant), Exchange
Coefficientsa
Model
1
a Dependent Variable: TCS

del Summary
R
R Square
Adjusted R SqStd. Error of the Estimate
.861a
0.741
0.734
7072.886
redictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate

Sum of Squardf
Regression 5441508032
Residual
1900977332
Total
7342485364
ependent Variable: TCS
redictors: (Constant), ExchangeRate

Mean Square F
1 5441508032
38 50025719.3
39

Unstandardized CoefficientStandardized t
B
Std. Error
Beta
(Constant)
-77319.825
9350.906
ExchangeRat
2035.105
195.13
0.861
ependent Variable: TCS

Sig.
108.774 .000b

Sig.
-8.269
10.429

CF= -77319.825 + 2035.105X

Regression is significant

0
0