Professional Documents
Culture Documents
LA ELEVADA DEUDA
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Vamos a ver:
La restriccin presupuestaria del sector pblico y sus
consecuencias.
Los factores que determinan la evolucin dinmica- del
coeficiente entre la deuda y el PIB y los determinantes de la
acumulacin de la deuda.
Teora poltica de la deuda
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
(21.1)
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
(21.1)
Por ltimo,
(21.3)
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.11
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.12
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.13
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.14
1
=0
1
=0
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
(T2 G2 ) = 1+ r
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.16
Perodo 3
Qu le tendra que pasar al dficit primario si deseramos
eliminar la deuda en el perodo 3?
B2 = (1+ r )
(1+r )
(T3 G3 ) = (1+ r )2
Perodo 5
Qu le tendra que pasar al dficit primario si deseramos
eliminar la deuda en el perodo 5?
Slide
21.17
B2 = (1+ r )
B3 = (1+ r ) B2 + (G3 T3 )
(1+r )
B4 = (1+ r ) B3 + (G4 T4 )
(1+r )2
B3 = (1+ r )2
B4 = (1+ r )3
(1+r )3
(T5 G5 ) = (1+ r ) 4
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.18
B1 = (1 + r ) B0 + 0 = 1 + r
Donde la segunda igualdad se deriva de nuestra
hiptesis inicial segn la cual Bo=1
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.19
B2 = (1 + r ) B1 + 0 = (1 + r )(1 + r ) = (1 + r ) 2
Mientras el gobierno mantenga un dficit primario igual a
cero, la deuda crece a una tasa igual al tipo de inters y
por tanto la deuda existente al final del ao t-1 viene
dada por:
Slide
21.20
Ejemplo 1:
La deuda se elimina en el perodo 2
Ejemplo 3:
La deuda se elimina en el perodo 5
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.21
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.22
Bt 1 == (1 + r )t 1
Tenemos que
0 = (1 + r )(1 + r )t 1 + (Gt Tt )
Reordenando trminos tenemos
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.23
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.24
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.25
Supuestos
Los impuestos solo se reducen (el gasto aumenta) en el
perodo 1
Generalizando al perodo t:
Si los impuestos se reducen en el perodo 1 y se desea
eliminar la deuda en el perodo t, en ese ao el
supervit debe ser:
Tt Gt = (1 + r ) t 1
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.26
CONCLUSIONES
Si el gobierno no modifica el gasto, una cada de impuestos
en un perodo debe ser compensada con aumentos de
impuestos futuros.
Cuanto mayor sea el perodo que el gobierno espere a
subir los impuestos, o ms elevado sea r, mayor ser la
subida de impuestos futura.
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.27
Slide
21.28
1 = (1 + r ) + (G1 T1 )
Reordenando
T1 G1 = (1 + r ) 1 = r
Para evitar un nuevo aumento de la deuda en el ao 1, el
sector pblico debe experimentar un supervit primario
igual a los intereses reales pagados por la deuda
existente.
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.29
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
B2 = (1+ r ) B1 + (G2 T2 )
(T2 G2 ) = r
B3 = (1+ r ) B2 + (G3 T3 )
(T3 G3 ) = r
Slide
21.31
CONCLUSIONES
Para estabilizar la deuda, el gobierno debe eliminar el
dficit
Para eliminar el dficit, el gobierno debe generar un
supervit igual a los pagos de intereses de la deuda
existente
Esto requiere elevar lo impuestos de forma permanente
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.32
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.34
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.35
yt = yt 1 + A
donde yt es la tasa de endeudamiento, el parmetro es 1 r g y
la variable exgena A es (Gt Tt)/Yt.
Suponemos que el Estado incurre en dficit (o supervit) primarios
en relacin con el PIB que se mantienen constantes a lo largo del
tiempo, a saber, que (Gt Tt)/Yt es constante. Tambin suponemos
que r y g son constantes.
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Deuda Bt
=
PIB
Yt
En las estadsticas:
En trminos Nominales:
Bt
Bt 1 (Gt Tt )
= (1 + r )
+
Yt
Yt
Yt
Con lgebra:
(1 + r )
; 1+ r gy
(1 + g y )
g y = gYN
r = i
r g y = i gYN
Bt
Y B
(G Tt )
= (1+ r ) t 1 t 1 + t
Yt
Yt Yt 1
Yt
1/(1+g y )
Bt
Bt 1 (Gt Tt )
= (1 + r g y )
+
Yt
Yt 1
Yt
YNt 1
YNt
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Bt
B
(G Tt )
= (1 + r g y ) t 1 + t
Yt
Yt 1
Yt
Bt Bt 1
Bt 1 (Gt Tt )
= (r g y )
+
Yt Yt 1
Yt 1
Yt
r g y = (i ) (g yN ) = i g yN = i (g y + )
Bt Bt 1
Bt 1 (Gt Tt )
= (r g y )
+
Yt Yt 1
Yt 1
Yt
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Bt Bt 1
Bt 1 (Gt Tt )
= (r g y )
+
Yt Yt 1
Yt 1
Yt
Por tanto, esta ecuacin implica que el crecimiento del
ratio de deuda en trminos del PIB ser tanto mayor
cuanto:
Mayor sea el tipo de inters real
Menor sea la tasa de crecimiento del output real
Mayor sea el ratio inicial de deuda
Mayor sea el ratio de dficit primario
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.42
Bt
Yt
Supuestos
r y gy constantes
(Gt-Tt)/Yt constante
Gt Tt
Yt
4 casos:
(1 + r g y )
gy < r y G T >0
gy < r y G T <0
gy > r y G T <0
gy > r y G T <0
Bt Bt 1
=
Yt Yt 1
Bt 1
Yt 1
Bt
Bt 1 (Gt Tt )
= (1 + r g y )
+
Yt
Yt 1
Yt
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
CASO 1
Bt
B
(G Tt )
= (1 + r g y ) t 1 + t
Yt
Yt 1
Yt
gy < r
Pendiente >1 (bisectriz)
G T >0
B0 / Y0 > 0
CASO 2
Bt
B
(G Tt )
= (1 + r g y ) t 1 + t
Yt
Yt 1
Yt
gy < r
Pendiente >1 (bisectriz)
G T < 0
B0 / Y0 > 0
Bt
Yt
CASO 3
Bt
B
(G Tt )
= (1 + r g y ) t 1 + t
Yt
Yt 1
Yt
Gt Tt
Yt
gy > r
Pendiente <1 (bisectriz)
G T > 0
B0 / Y0 > 0
B0
Y0
B
Y
Bt 1
Yt 1
CASO 4
Bt
B
(G Tt )
= (1 + r g y ) t 1 + t
Yt
Yt 1
Yt
gy > r
Pendiente <1 (bisectriz)
G T < 0
B0 / Y0 > 0
Bt Bt 1
B
(G Tt )
= (r g y ) t 1 + t
Yt 1
Yt Yt 1
Yt
i gYN =i (gY + )
CASO 1
Bt
B
(G Tt )
= (1+ r g y ) t 1 + t
Yt Yt 1
Yt
1+i gYN
Slide
21.48
Bt Bt 1
B
(G Tt )
= (r g y ) t 1 + t
Yt 1
Yt Yt 1
Yt
i gYN =i (gY + )
Bt
B
(G Tt )
= (1+ r g y ) t 1 + t
Yt Yt 1
Yt
1+i gYN
Slide
21.49
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
2009
2010
2011
2012 1T
2012 2T
-3,7
-0,3
0,4
-0,6
-1,3
2,73
4,64
4,63
5,32
6,59
Inflacin ()
-0,2
2,0
3,1
1,9
1,9
2,93
2,64
1,53
3,42
4,62
6,63
2,94
1,93
4,02
5,92
53,3
61,2
68,5
80
11,2
9,3
8,5
6,7
Slide
21.50
r-g >0
2012: 6,3;
2013: 4,5;
2014: 2,8;
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.51
(T-G)/PIB
Deuda/PIB
90
80
70
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
60
-2
50
-4
40
-6
30
-8
20
-10
10
-12
0
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.52
(T-G)/PIB
4
2
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
UEM
Espaa
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.53
DEUDA/PIB (%)
100
90
80
70
LMITE 60%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
UEM
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ESP
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.62
Figura 21.5b
Slide
21.63
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.64
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.65
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.66
Durante la crisis de
20072010, el uso de
la poltica fiscal
produjo un efecto
espectacular en la
deuda y en los dficit.
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.67
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Slide
21.70
Slide
21.71
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
Trminos clave
Slide
21.72
Presupuesto equilibrado
Dficit presupuestario
Pagos de intereses nominales y reales
Financiacin del dficit
Dficit primario
Supervit primario
Estabilizacin de la deuda
Cociente entre la deuda y el PIB o tasa de endeudamiento
Suspensin del pago de la deuda
Teora poltica de la deuda pblica
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010