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INTRODUCTION
Thus major natural greenhouse gases are: water vapor, which causes about 36-70% of
the greenhouse effect on Earth (not including clouds); carbon dioxide, which causes
between 9-26%; and ozone, which causes between 3-7% .Other greenhouse gases
include, but are not limited to: methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, and
chlorofluorocarbons. Increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases lead to
a warming of the Earth's surface and the lower atmosphere. The resulting changes in
climate and their impacts (e.g. on sea level, agriculture and forestry) can be estimated
without associating the origin of the warming to anyone of these gases specifically.
Nitrous Oxide is only present in the atmosphere in very small amounts, but causes 20300
times as much warming as the same amount of CO 2. It occurs naturally when tiny
creatures called micro-organisms remove nitrogen from soil and release it into
atmosphere as Nitrous Oxide. It is also released from the oceans. This natural Nitrous
Oxide is used up by plants to produce the ammonia, which they need to live.
Unfortunately humans have unbalanced this cycle by extensive use of nitrate fertilizers,
burning wood and Fossil Fuels and even sewage treatment plants, so the amount of
Nitrous Oxide in the atmosphere is increasing. Nitrous Oxide can remain in the
atmosphere for as long as 150 years.
Ozone is created and destroyed quite rapidly in the atmosphere by radiation from the sun.
Sunlight converts Oxygen into Ozone in the upper atmosphere and ultraviolet rays break
it down again. The importance of Ozone in climate change is not fully understood, but the
Ozone Layer is known to shield animals and plants from the harmful effects of the suns
ultraviolet rays. As well as causing serious health problems, such as skin cancer, these
rays can also have a destructive effect on crops and important creatures called
Phytoplankton, which live, in the sea, so the reduction in the Ozone layer may indirectly
affect our climate. Ozone is being destroyed by humans releasing Halocarbons, such as
CFCs, into the atmosphere.
Halocarbons are gases which do not usually occur naturally. The most well-known
Halocarbons are the CFCs, although there are others such as HFCs and HCFCs. These
gases were used as coolants, spray-can propellants and solvents until we realized that
they can remain in the atmosphere for up to 400 years, and that some have a warming
effect of up to 13,000 times that of CO2! CFCs are also thought to be the main cause of
the destruction of the Ozone Layer. The use of Halocarbons is now greatly restricted, but
their levels are still slowly increasing and they will remain in the atmosphere for a very
long time to come.
Water Vapour is the gas, which naturally produces the greatest Greenhouse Effect. Its
concentration in the atmosphere varies over the cold, dry, polar regions, the air holds
less Water Vapour than over the hot, humid Tropical regions. Consequently, if the general
air temperature increases due to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect, the amount of Water
Vapour in the atmosphere increases, which produces even more warming!
CHAPTER -2
GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
The Earth has a natural temperature control system. Certain atmospheric gases are critical
to this system and are known as greenhouse gases. On average, about one third of the
solar radiation that hits the earth is reflected back to space. Of the remainder, the
atmosphere absorbs some but the land and oceans absorb most. The Earth's surface
becomes warm and as a result emits infrared radiation. The greenhouse gases trap the
infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases
include water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane and nitrous oxide, and together
create a natural greenhouse effect. However, human activities are causing greenhouse gas
levels in the atmosphere to increase. Note: Greenhouse gases are mixed throughout in the
atmosphere. For pedagogical reasons they are depicted here as a layer
dramatically, due in large part to increased usage of automobiles worldwide, and the
substitution of mechanized farm machinery for animal power. "Mankind is in the process
of conducting a major, unintentional experiment, that of feeding back into the atmosphere
in a short space of geological time the fossils fuels that have slowly accumulated over the
past 500 million years.
livestock and paddy rice farming, land use and wetland changes, pipeline losses,
and covered vented landfill emissions leading to higher methane atmospheric
concentrations, many of the newer style fully vented septic systems that enhance
and target the fermentation process also are major sources of atmospheric
methane.
Nitrous oxide comes from both natural sources and human activities. Fossil fuel
combustion, industrial practices, and agricultural practices including the use of
chemical fertilizers all increase atmospheric nitrous oxide.
The industrial production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other halocarbons used in refrigeration, air conditioning, and as solvents - have added other
greenhouse gas.
10
Ozone in the troposphere (the lower part of the atmosphere) result from industrial
activities. It is created naturally, but is also produced by atmospheric reactions
caused by smog precursors such as nitrogen oxide from motor vehicles and power
plants.
11
Current
(1998) Radiative
Amount by volume
(W/m2)
CFC-11
268 ppt
0.07
CFC-12
533 ppt
0.17
CFC-113
84 ppt
0.03
Carbon tetrachloride
102 ppt
0.01
forcing
HCFC-22
69 ppt
0.03
(Source: IPCC radiative forcing report 1994 updated (to 1998) by IPCC TAR table 6.1)
12
as a consequence of chemical reactions within the atmosphere. This is the case for
methane. It is oxidized by reaction with naturally occurring hydroxyl radical, OH
and degraded to CO2 and water vapor at the end of a chain of reactions. This also
includes solution and solid phase chemistry occurring in atmospheric aerosols.
13
and
are
caused
by
both
natural
and
human
factors.
Now, scientists are concerned that the Earth is warming up, and there is evidence that
most of the change that has taken place in the last 50 years or so has been caused by
human activities.
This warming is affecting the Earths climate and the rate at which the warming is taking
place is increasing, making the risk to life and our environment even greater.
14
Some of the climate changes we are likely to see because of this are:
Average temperatures could rise by 5C or more
Natural processes like volcanic eruptions, changes in the suns intensity, or very
slow changes in ocean circulation or land surfaces that occur on time scales of
decades, centuries or longer are factors in influencing climate change.
Key natural factors include changes in the intensity of sunlight reaching the earth
and in the concentration of volcanic dust.
Humans can also cause climates to change by releasing greenhouse gases and
aerosols into the atmosphere, by changing land surfaces, and by depleting the
stratospheric ozone layer. An increase in greenhouse gases enhances the natural
surface temperature
The high sea levels which accompany storms will become higher and occur more
frequently, increasing costal flooding
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which brings together 2,500 of
the worlds climate experts, projected in its Third Assessment Report in 2001 that the
globally averaged surface temperature would increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees
Celsius from 1990 to 2100, under a business-as-usual scenario.
As global temperatures rise, sea levels also will rise by between nine and 88 centimeters
over the same period, the IPCC projects.
The IPCCs findings were reinforced by a report by the European Environment Agency
issued in August 2004, which concluded that Europe is warming faster than the global
average. The temperature in Europe is projected to climb by a further 2.0 to 6.3 degrees
15
Celsius this century as emissions of greenhouse gases continue building up. Roughly two
out of every three catastrophic events since 1980 have been directly attributable to floods,
storms, droughts or heat waves.
16
17
CHAPTER 3
GLOBAL WARMING
18
3.1Global warming
Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air
and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.
Global average air temperature near the Earth's surface rose 0.74 0.18 C (1.33
0.32 F) during the twentieth century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) concludes, "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations," which leads to warming of the surface and lower
atmosphere by increasing the greenhouse effect. Natural phenomena such as solar
variation combined with volcanoes have probably had a small warming effect from preindustrial times to 1950, but a small cooling effect since 1950. These basic conclusions
have been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science, including
all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.
19
Climate models referenced by the IPCC project that global surface temperatures are
likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 C (2.0 to 11.5 F) between 1990 and 2100. The range of
values results from the use of differing scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions as
well as models with differing climate sensitivity. Although most studies focus on the
period up to 2100, warming and sea level rise are expected to continue for more than a
millennium even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized. This reflects the large heat
capacity of the oceans.
An increase in global temperatures is expected to cause other changes, including sea level
rise, increased intensity of extreme weather events, and changes in the amount and
pattern of precipitation. Other effects include changes in agricultural yields, glacier
retreat, species extinctions and increases in the ranges of disease vectors.
Remaining scientific uncertainties include the exact degree of climate change expected in
the future, and how changes will vary from region to region around the globe. There is
ongoing political and public debate on a world scale regarding what, if any, action should
be taken to reduce or reverse future warming or to adapt to its expected consequences.
Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol, aimed at
reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Terminology
The term "global warming" is a specific example of the broader term climate change,
which can also refer to global cooling. In common usage the term refers to recent
warming and implies a human influence. The United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) uses the term "climate change" for human-caused change,
and "climate variability" for other changes. The term "anthropogenic climate change" is
sometimes used when focusing on human-induced changes.
20
Mean surface temperature anomalies during the period 1995 to 2004 with respect to the
average temperatures from 1940 to 1980
21
Carbon dioxide during the last 400,000 years and (inset above) the rapid rise since the
Industrial Revolution; changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, known as
Milankovitch cycles, are believed to be the pacemaker of the 100,000 year ice age cycle.
22
warming. For example, according to the E.P.A's 2000 Fuel Economy Guide, a new Dodge
Durango sports utility vehicle (with a 5.9 liter engine) that gets 12 miles per gallon in the
city will emit an estimated 800 pounds of carbon dioxide over a distance of 500 city
miles. In other words for each gallon of gas a vehicle consumes, 19.6 pounds of carbon
dioxide are emitted into the air. A new Honda Insight that gets 61 miles to the gallon
will only emit about 161 pounds of carbon dioxide over the same distance of 500 city
miles. Sports utility vehicles were built for rough terrain, off road driving in mountains
and deserts. When they are used for city driving, they are so much overkill to the
environment. If one has to have a large vehicle for their family, station wagons are an
intelligent choice for city driving, especially since their price is about half that of a sports
utility. Inasmuch as SUV's have a narrow wheel base in respect to their higher silhouette,
they are four times as likely as cars to rollover in an accident.
The United States is the largest consumer of oil, using 20.4 million barrels per day. In his
debate with former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, during the 2000 Presidential
campaign, Senator Joseph Lieberman said, "If we can get 3 miles more per gallon from
our cars, we'll save 1 million barrels of oil a day, which is exactly what the (Arctic
National Wildlife) Refuge at its best in Alaska would produce."
If car manufacturers were to increase their fleets' average gas mileage about 3 miles per
gallon, this country could save a million barrels of oil every day, while US drivers would
save $25 billion in fuel costs annually.
23
Methane
While carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas, methane is second most important.
According
to
the
IPCC,
Methane
is
more
than
20
times
as
effective as CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere Levels of atmospheric methane have
risen 145% in the last 100 years. Methane is derived from sources such as rice paddies,
bovine flatulence, bacteria in bogs and fossil fuel production. Most of the worlds rice,
and all of the rice in the United States, is grown on flooded fields. When fields are
flooded, anaerobic conditions develop and the organic matter in the soil decomposes,
releasing CH4 to the atmosphere, primarily through the rice plants.
Nitrous oxide
Another greenhouse gas is Nitrous oxide (N2O), a colourless, non-flammable gas with a
sweetish odour, commonly known as "laughing gas", and sometimes used as an
anaesthetic. Nitrous oxide is naturally produced by oceans and rainforests. Man-made
sources of nitrous oxide include nylon and nitric acid production, the use of fertilizers in
agriculture, cars with catalytic converters and the burning of organic matter. Nitrous
oxide is broken down in the atmosphere by chemical reactions that involve sunlight.
Deforestation
After carbon emissions caused by humans, deforestation is the second principle cause of
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Deforestation is responsible for 25% of all carbon emissions
entering the atmosphere, by the burning and cutting of about 34 million acres of trees
each year. We are losing millions of acres of rainforests each year, the equivalent in area
to the size of Italy. The destroying of tropical forests alone is throwing hundreds of
millions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year. We are also losing
temperate forests. The temperate forests of the world account for an absorption rate of 2
billion tons of carbon annually. In the temperate forests of Siberia alone, the earth is
losing 10 million acres per year.
24
3.3 Feedbacks
The effects of forcing agents on the climate are complicated by various feedback
processes. One of the most pronounced feedback effects relates to the evaporation of
water. In the case of warming by the addition of long-lived greenhouse gases such as
CO2, the initial warming will cause more water to be evaporated into the atmosphere.
Since water vapor itself acts as a greenhouse gas, this causes still more warming; the
warming causes more water vapor to be evaporated, and so forth until a new dynamic
equilibrium concentration of water vapor is reached with a much larger greenhouse effect
than that due to CO2 alone. (Although this feedback process involves an increase in the
absolute moisture content of the air, the relative humidity stays nearly constant or even
decreases slightly because the air is warmer.) This feedback effect can only be reversed
slowly as CO2 has a long average atmospheric lifetime.
Feedback effects due to clouds are an area of ongoing research. Seen from below, clouds
emit infrared radiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect. Seen from
above, the same clouds reflect sunlight and emit infrared radiation to space, and so exert
a cooling effect. Whether the net effect is warming or cooling depends on details such as
the type and altitude of the cloud. These details are difficult to represent in climate
models, in part because clouds are much smaller than the spacing between points on the
computational grids of climate models (about 125 to 500 km for models used in the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report). Nevertheless, cloud feedback is second only to water vapor
feedback and is positive in all the models that were used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report.
Another important feedback process is ice-albedo feedback. When global temperatures
increase, ice near the poles melts at an increasing rate. As the ice melts, land or open
water takes its place. Both land and open water are on average less reflective than ice,
25
and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more warming, which in turn causes
more melting, and this cycle continues.
Positive feedback due to release of CO2 and CH4 from thawing permafrost is an
additional mechanism contributing to warming. Possible positive feedback due to CH 4
release from melting seabed ices is a further mechanism to be considered.
The ocean's ability to sequester carbon is expected to decline as it warms, because the
resulting low nutrient levels of the mesopelagic zone limits the growth of diatoms in
favour of smaller phytoplankton that are poorer biological pumps of carbon.
Solar variation
A few recent papers have suggested that the Sun's contribution may have been
underestimated. Two researchers at Duke University have estimated that the Sun may
have contributed about 4050% of the global surface temperature warming over the
period 19002000, and about 2535% between 1980 and 2000. Stott and coauthors
suggest that climate models overestimate the relative effect of greenhouse gases
compared to solar forcing; they also suggest that the cooling effects of volcanic dust and
sulfate aerosols have been underestimated. Nevertheless, they conclude that even with an
enhanced climate sensitivity to solar forcing, most of the warming during the latest
decades is attributable to the increases in greenhouse gases.
In 2006, a team of scientists from the United States, Germany, and Switzerland found no
net increase of solar brightness over the last thousand years. Solar cycles lead to a small
increase of 0.07% in brightness over the last 30 years. This effect is far too minute to
contribute significantly to global warming. A 2007 paper by Lockwood and Frhlich
further confirms the lack of a correlation between solar output and global warming for the
time since 1985.
Temperature changes
27
Recent
Global temperatures on both land and sea have increased by 0.75 C (1.35 F) relative to
the period 18601900, according to the instrumental temperature record. This
measured temperature increase is not significantly affected by the urban heat
island. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean
temperatures (0.25 C per decade against 0.13 C per decade). Temperatures in
the lower troposphere have increased between 0.12 and 0.22 C (0.22 and 0.4 F)
per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements.
Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two
thousand years before 1850, with possibly regional fluctuations such as the
Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age.
Sea temperatures increase more slowly than those on land both because of the larger
effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean can lose heat by evaporation
more readily than the land . Since the northern hemisphere has more land mass than the
southern it warms faster; also there are extensive areas of seasonal snow cover subject to
the snow-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the northern
than southern hemisphere this does not contribute to the asymmetry of warming as the
major gases are essentially well-mixed between hemispheres.
Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the
warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in
the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a
degree. Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic
Research Unit concluded that 2005 was the second warmest year, behind 1998.
28
Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the
1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to
the WGMS and the NSIDC.
Though it is difficult to connect specific weather events to global warming, an increase in
global temperatures may in turn cause other changes, including glacial retreat and
worldwide sea level rise. Changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation may result in
flooding and drought. There may also be changes in the frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events. Other effects may include changes in agricultural yields, reduced
summer streamflows, species extinctions and increases in the range of disease vectors.
Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already
being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier
retreat, ice shelf disruption such as the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall
patterns, increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, are being
attributed in part to global warming. While changes are expected for overall patterns,
intensity, and frequencies, it is difficult to attribute specific events to global warming.
Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation
29
in others, changes in mountain snowpack, and adverse health effects from warmer
temperatures.
Increasing deaths, displacements, and economic losses projected due to extreme weather
attributed to global warming may be exacerbated by growing population densities in
affected areas, although temperate regions are projected to experience some minor
benefits, such as fewer deaths due to cold exposure. A summary of probable effects and
recent understanding can be found in the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment
Report by Working Group II.The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary
reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone
activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in
sea surface temperature, but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the
quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that
there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.
Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 millimeters (0.36 to
2.5 ft) between 1990 and 2100, repercussions to agriculture, possible slowing of the
thermohaline circulation, reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity and frequency
of hurricanes and extreme weather events, lowering of ocean pH, and the spread of
diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of
1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate
projections. Two populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly are being threatened by
changes in precipitation, though few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions
due to recent climate change.
30
and simply adapt to the new climatic circumstances. We focus here on sea level change,
the impact of which is likely to be on such a scale that adaptation cannot be presented as
a preferred option.
This recently observed behaviour has shown clearly that ice-sheets are not relatively inert
masses responding sluggishly to temperature change. Rather they are now perceived in
much more dynamic terms, showing strong and potentially dangerous responses to
small changes in external conditions. This would accord with geological evidence
indicating past ice-sheet collapses, releasing iceberg armadas and causing sea level rises
of several meters in a decade.
32
shelves has precipitated increased streaming of ice from much farther inland, which
potentially represents the initiation of a phase of much more serious ice-sheet collapse.
3.6 Economics
Some economists have tried to estimate the aggregate net economic costs of damages
from climate change across the globe. Such estimates have so far failed to reach
conclusive findings; in a survey of 100 estimates, the values ran from US$-10 per tonne
of carbon (tC) (US$-3 per tonne of carbon dioxide) up to US$350/tC (US$95 per tonne of
carbon dioxide), with a mean of US$43 per tonne of carbon (US$12 per tonne of carbon
dioxide). One widely-publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern
Review; it suggests that extreme weather might reduce global gross domestic product by
up to 1%, and that in a worst case scenario global per capita consumption could fall
20%.The report's methodology, advocacy and conclusions have been criticized by many
economists, primarily around the Review's assumptions of discounting and its choices of
scenarios, while others have supported the general attempt to quantify economic risk,
even if not the specific numbers. In a summary of economic cost associated with climate
change, the United Nations Environment Programme emphasizes the risks to insurers,
reinsurers, and banks of increasingly traumatic and costly weather events. Other
economic sectors likely to face difficulties related to climate change include agriculture
and transport. Developing countries, rather than the developed world, are at greatest
economic risk.
33
CHAPTER 4
KYOTO PROTOCOL
34
4.1 INTRODUCTION
The greenhouse effect is very simple. We are increasing emissions of greenhouse gases
and thus their concentrations in the atmosphere are going up. As these concentrations
increase, the temperature of the Earth rises. This, in turn, leads to changes in the patterns
of precipitation and to sea level rise. And as temperatures, precipitation and sea level
change, there is reason to worry about adverse effects on ecological and socio-economic
systems, and on human health.
There is now a discernible human influence on the Earth's climate system. If there is no
global agreement to try and limit greenhouse-gas emissions, the temperature of the Earth
is expected to increase between 1.0 and 3.5oC over the next century. Such a rate of
change has not been experienced at any time during the past 10,000 years. Therefore,
since last more than 60 years efforts are being made to reach an agreement, involving all
countries of the world, so as to control the level of green house gases in the atmosphere at
an acceptable level.
35
AMIDST growing concern & increasing awareness on the need for pollution control, the
concept of carbon credit came into vogue as part of an international agreement popularly
known as KYOTO PROTOCOL . Carbon credits are certificates issued to countries that
reduce their emissions of green house gaseswhich causes global warming. Some GHG
gases like hydro fluoro carbons , methane & nitrous oxide are released as by-products of
certain industrial process , which adversely affect the ozone layer , leading to global
warming.
The Kyoto accord, which aims to curb the air pollution blamed for global warming, has
come into force seven years after it was agreed.
The accord requires countries to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases.
Some 141 countries, accounting for 55% of greenhouse gas emissions, have ratified the
treaty, which pledges to cut these emissions by 5.2% by 2012. However, the U.S, which
accounts for one-third of the total GHG emission, is yet to sign this treaty. The
preliminary phase of the Kyoto Protocol is to start in 07 while the second phase starts
from 08.
36
37
Former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and former Norwegian prime minister Gro
Harlem Bruntland hosted one of the world's first major scientific conferences on climate
change. It called for a 20% cut to 1988 greenhouse gas emissions by 2005 and called the
effect of climate change, "second only to global nuclear war."
1990 - The first report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Two years after its formation, the IPCC released its first report. It said it had reason to
believe two things. One that the planet was warming. Two that human activity was
causing it. It also said given existing models and science, it would need more time to be
certain.
1992 - 2nd Earth Summit, Riode Janeiro, Brazil
The largest gathering of world leaders ever, the Earth Summit created the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change, also known as the Rio Convention. This
convention called on the world to stabilize 1990 greenhouse gas emissions by 2000.
Both Canada and the United States signed and ratified this convention. Importantly,
former U.S. president George Bush negotiated an agreement to allow developing nations
to increase emissions, the reason they are not included in the Kyoto Protocol. The treaty
is legally binding on countries that ratified it.
1995-Conference of Parties I in Berlin, Germany
Each year, the countries that ratified the Rio Convention held a Conference of Parties
(COP). The first of these happened in 1995 and reviewed the adequacy of the Rio
Convention's goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions.
1995 The second report of the International Panel on Climate Change
Five years after saying it needed more science to be certain, the IPCC released its second
report saying "the balance of evidence" pointed to a "discernable human influence on the
global climate system".
1996-Conference of Parties II (COP II) in Geneva, Switzerland
38
In the first meeting after the IPCC's second report, the countries belonging to the Rio
Convention said, "climate change represented a danger to humanity."
due to an inability to agree on "carbon sinks," a key demand of both Canada and the
United States. In the aftermath of the failure, a subsequent meeting was held in Ottawa in
the hopes the failure was due to misunderstanding, rather than a deep policy gap. The
Ottawa meeting also failed.
39
2001 - COP VII in Bonn, Germany: Just before dawn on July 29 2001, the world
reached the agreement that had eluded them in The Hague. 180 countries (that is, the
whole world except for the United States and Australia) agreed to the rules for
implementing the Kyoto Protocol.
2002-December:Canada ratifies the Kyoto Protocol
Canada ratified the Kyoto protocol, committing to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to
6 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-2012.
2004-November: Russia Ratifies the Kyoto Protocol
For the protocol to go into effect; it must be ratified by the countries that together are
responsible for at least 55% of 1990 global greenhouse gas emissions. This milestone was
reached once Russia ratified the agreement on November 18.
2005 - February: the Kyoto Protocol goes into effect
The Kyoto Protocol automatically goes into effect 90 days after enough countries have
signed, making February 16, 2005 the first day the agreement comes into effect.
40
4.3 DETAILS
AGREEMENT
OF
THE
on
Climate
Change
Kyoto Protocol
protocol
Opened
signature
commit
to
reduce
their
Nations
Environment
Entered
force
Programme:
"The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce
their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but
note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the
Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut). The goal is to lower overall emissions of six
greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs,
and PFCs - calculated as an average over the five-year period of 2008-12. National
targets range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others to 7% for the
US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10%
for Iceland."
It is an agreement negotiated as an amendment to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, which was adopted at the Earth Summit in
41
Rio de Janeiro in 1992). All parties to the UNFCCC can sign or ratify the Kyoto Protocol,
while non-parties to the UNFCCC cannot. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the third
session of the Conference of Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan.
This agreement is (supposed to be) legally binding. This means that states that have
agreed to its terms and then fail to live up to their commitments will be sanctioned
including by having to reduce their emissions even more in a subsequent period. But
states that withdraw from the entire agreement cannot be sanctioned.
The 5% reduction in emissions required by the Protocol is an average: some countries are
required to reduce more, and others less. The quotas and targets assigned to each country
were arrived at through many rounds of tough negotiations. This figure shows how
different countries must reduce their emissions compared with 1990.
TARGETS: In the Kyoto Protocol, the developed countries agreed to limit their
emissions of greenhouse gases. The graphic above shows how many percent
each countrys emissions must be reduced (or is allowed to increase) in the
years 2008-2012 compared to 1990. Source: IEA, illustration: CICERO
Most provisions of the Kyoto Protocol apply to developed countries, listed in Annex I to
the UNFCCC.
42
The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay, and supply
technology to, other countries for climate-related studies and projects. This was originally
agreed in the UNFCCC.
4.6 REVISIONS
The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the Conference of Parties
(COP). COP6 attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in the Hague in late 2000,
but was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between the European Union on the
43
one hand (which favoured a tougher agreement) and the United States, Canada, Japan and
Australia on the other (which wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more
flexible).
In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held in Bonn where the
required decisions were adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol
(led by the European Union) managed to get Japan and Russia in as well by allowing
more use of carbon dioxide sinks.
COP7 was held from 29 October 2001 9 November 2001 in Marrakech to establish the
final details of the protocol.
The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in Montreal from
November 28 to December 9, 2005, along with the 11th conference of the Parties to the
UNFCCC (COP11).
4.7 OBJECTIVES
The objective of the Kyoto Protocol is to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, mitigate climate change, and promote sustainable development. The Protocol
is historic in that it is the first attempt to achieve international agreements to mitigate
global climate change through reduction in Green House Gases, and the first to employ
the flexibility of the global market place for global environmental management. The
Protocol emerged first as a framework agreement, but through international negotiations
it is progressing into sets of legal articles. These impose obligations on all signatories, but
they also identify opportunities for improved environmental land management at local,
national and international levels.
The Kyoto Protocol recognizes the overwhelming importance of controlling and reducing
GHG emissions (sources) which currently come primarily from industrial and
transportation sources, but it also recognizes the corresponding opportunities to be gained
through better management of carbon (C) reservoirs and enhancement of C sinks
(sequestration) in forestry and agriculture. These latter aspects are achieved through
better management of land use change (conversions) and improved local land
management. Thus, the Protocol is an excellent opportunity to promote local, national
44
and global soil conservation, and develop networks and partnerships for global
environmental management. It is a classic win-win situation.
CHAPTER 5
IMPLEMENTION OF KYOTO PROTOCOL
45
Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, where dark green indicates countries that have signed
and ratified the treaty and yellow indicates states that have signed and hope to ratify the
treaty. Notably, Australia and the United States have signed but, currently, decline to
ratify it.
The treaty was negotiated in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997, opened for signature on
March 16, 1998, and closed on March 15, 1999. The agreement came into force on
February 16, 2005 following ratification by Russia on November 18, 2004. As of April
2006, a total of 163 countries have ratified the agreement (representing over 61.6% of
emissions from Annex I countries) UNFCCC.int Duwe, Matthias. Notable exceptions
include the United States and Australia. Other countries, like India and China, which
46
have ratified the protocol, are not required to reduce carbon emissions under the present
agreement.
According to terms of the protocol, it enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date
on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in
Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55 per cent of the total carbon dioxide
emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in Annex I, have deposited their instruments of
ratification, acceptance, approval or accession." Of the two conditions, the "55 parties"
clause was reached on May 23, 2002 when Iceland ratified. The ratification by Russia on
18 November 2004 satisfied the "55 percent" clause and brought the treaty into force,
effective February 16, 2005.
national.
While the Kyoto Protocol contains provisions for assessing performance, a fundamental
issue is what sanctions, if any, might be taken if a country was found not to be in
compliance with its ratification commitment. As with most forms of international law, the
protocol itself contains no sanctions in the event of noncompliance, and relies on
cooperation between parties. While the idea of sanctions for Kyoto Protocol noncompliance has been suggested, there is no agreement of what those sanctions might be,
or how they might be implemented.
47
international
trade
in
emissions
rights.
While developing countries are not currently subject to timetables and targets, they are
expected to take measures to limit the growth rate of their emissions and to report on
48
actions being taken to address climate change. There are also further specific incentives
for developing countries via technology transfer and the Clean Development Mechanism
CHAPTER 6
ACCEPTABILITY OF PROTOCOL
49
50
President Putin had earlier decided in favour of the protocol in September 2004, along
with the Russian cabinet Mosnews.com. As anticipated after this, ratification by the lower
(22 October 2004) and upper house of parliament did not encounter any obstacles.
The Kyoto Protocol limits emissions to a percentage increase or decrease from their 1990
levels. Since 1990 the economies of most countries in the former Soviet Union have
collapsed, as have their greenhouse gas emissions. Because of this, Russia should have no
problem meeting its commitments under Kyoto, as its current emission levels are
substantially below its targets
It is debatable whether Russia will benefit from selling emissions credits to other
countries in the Kyoto Protocol
51
The EU countries agreed to a common target for the whole of EU. In between themselves,
they agreed to splitting up the target as shown above. Source: IEA, illustration: CICERO
The position of the EU is not without controversy in Protocol negotiations, however.
Emission levels of former Warsaw Pact countries who now are members of the EU have
already been reduced as a result of their economic restructuring. This may mean that the
region's 1990 baseline level is inflated compared to that of other developed countries,
thus giving European economies a potential competitive advantage over the U.S.
52
be acted upon in the Senate until there was participation by the developing nations CNN.
The Clinton Administration never submitted the protocol to the Senate for ratification.
The Clinton Administration released an economic analysis in July 1998, prepared by the
Council of Economic Advisors, which concluded that with emissions trading among the
Annex B/Annex I countries, and participation of key developing countries in the "Clean
Development Mechanism" which grants the latter business-as-usual emissions rates
through 2012 the costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol could be reduced as much
as 60% from many estimates. Other economic analyses, however, prepared by the
Congressional Budget Office and the Department of Energy Information Administration
(EIA), and others, demonstrated a potentially large decline in GDP from implementing
the Protocol.
The current President, George W. Bush, has indicated that he does not intend to submit
the treaty for ratification, not because he does not support the general idea, but because of
the strain he believes the treaty would put on the economy; he emphasizes the
uncertainties he asserts are present in the climate change issue Corn, David (2001).
Furthermore, he is not happy with the details of the treaty. For example, he does not
support the split between Annex I countries and others. Bush said of the treaty:
This is a challenge that requires a 100 percent effort; ours, and the rest of the world's.
The world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is China. Yet, China was entirely
exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. India and Germany are among
the top emitters. Yet, India was also exempt from Kyoto. . . . America's unwillingness to
embrace a flawed treaty should not be read by our friends and allies as any abdication of
responsibility. To the contrary, my administration is committed to a leadership role on the
issue of climate change. . . . . Our approach must be consistent with the long-term goal of
stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Whitehouse.gov President
Bush Discusses Global Climate Change.
In June 2002, the American Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the
"Climate Action Report 2002". Some observers have interpreted this report as being
supportive of the protocol, although the report itself does not explicitly endorse the
protocol. Later that year, Congressional researchers who examined the legal status of the
Protocol advised that signature of the UNFCCC imposes an obligation to refrain from
53
undermining the Protocol's object and purpose, and that while the President probably
cannot implement the Protocol alone, Congress can create compatible laws on its own
initiative.Opencrs.com
The White House has come under criticism for downplaying reports that link human
activity and greenhouse gas emissions to climate change and that a White House official
and former oil industry advocate, Philip Cooney, adjusted descriptions of climate
research that had already been approved by government scientists. The White House has
denied that Philip Cooney watered down reports. BBC (2005) In June 2005, State
Department papers showed the administration thanking Exxon executives for the
company's "active involvement" in helping to determine climate change policy, including
the US stance on Kyoto. Input from the business lobby group Global Climate Coalition
was also a factor. Guardian
At the G-8 meeting in June 2005 administration officials expressed a desire for "practical
commitments industrialized countries can meet without damaging their economies".
According to those same officials, the United States is on track to fulfill its pledge to
reduce its carbon intensity 18 percent by 2012. Washington Post Paul Krugman notes that
the use of "carbon intensity" means the target reduction of 18 percent is still actually an
increase in overall emissions.NY Times. The position Bush has taken on climate change
has shifted with a gradual increasing acceptance that global warming is a problem, and
that it is partly caused by human activity. The United States has signed the Asia Pacific
Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, a pact that allows those countries to set
their goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions individually, but with no enforcement
mechanism. Supporters of the pact see it as complementing the Kyoto Protocol whilst
being more flexible whilst critics have said the pact will be ineffective without any
enforcement measures. Nine north-eastern states and in California, Republican Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger, along with 187 mayors from US towns and cities, have pledged
to adopt Kyoto style legal limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Steve Hounslow, Roger
Harrabin (2005)
54
On December 17, 2002, Canada ratified the treaty. While numerous polls have shown
support for the Kyoto protocol around 70% IPSOS-NA Graves, Boucher (2002) , there is
still some opposition, particularly by some business groups, non-governmental climate
scientists and energy concerns, using arguments similar to those being used in the US.
There is also a fear that since US companies will not be affected by the Kyoto Protocol
that Canadian companies will be at a disadvantage in terms of trade.
In 2005, the result was limited to an ongoing "war of words", primarily between the
government of Alberta (Canada's primary oil and gas producer) and the federal
government. There are even fears that Kyoto could threaten national unity, especially in
Alberta.
After January 2006, the Liberal Party government was replaced by a Conservative Party
minority govenment under Stephen Harper, who previously has expressed opposition to
Kyoto. During the election campaign, Harper stated he wanted to move beyond the Kyoto
debate by establishing different environmental controls. Rona Ambrose, who considers
the emission trading concept to be flawed, replaced Stephane Dion as the environment
minister and the chief overseer of the protocol in the United Nations.
On April 25th, 2006, Ambrose announced that Canada would have no chance of meeting
its targets under Kyoto, and would instead look to participate in U.S. sponsored Asia
Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. "We've been looking at the Asia
Pacific Partnership for a number of months now because the key principles around are
very much in line with where our government wants to go," Ambrose told reporters.
55
The Australian government, along with the United States, agreed to sign the Asia Pacific
Partnership on Clean Development and Climate at the ASEAN regional forum on 28 July
2005.
On 3 January 2006, after the Montreal accords a group of people assembled a petition
with the goal to reach 50 million signatures supporting Kyoto Protocol and its goal by
January 2008 - the starting date set by the Kyoto Protocol to show average 5% reduction
in emissions. This petition was set out to give civil support and ratification to the
international fight against Global Warming on a base of world wide active cooperation.
Many US and Australian citizens are signing the petition and thus criticise their leaders'
choices on this matter.
from
non-Annex
nations,
57
even
with
Annex
compliance.
The sensitivity to this issue was illustrated at the Third Conference of Parties (COP3) in
Kyoto when China blocked a proposal to allow developing countries to voluntarily take
on emission caps. With the expressed desire of several developing countries to make that
move (Argentina, Kazakhstan and Bolivia), this is an area that will require resolution.
However, the more important debate concerns the conditions and types of caps that
developing countries may be pressured to implement in the future, as the climate change
hypothesis gains further credence.
A second major area of debate is the role of carbon sinks. Here, the United States, Brazil
and other nations with large forests and substantial land mass support credits for carbon
sinks, while China and nations with small forests and land mass oppose this proposal.
A third major area of disagreement regards the amount of emissions trading that should
be permitted under the Kyoto Protocol. The European Union and many developing
countries advocate a limit on the percentage of emissions reductions that are permitted to
be achieved though the flexibility mechanisms, preferring domestic reductions. The
United States lead Umbrella Group insists on no restrictions.This debate over such
restrictions is often referred to as the question over supplementarity, in that the Kyoto
Protocol states that emissions trading is supposed to be only supplemental to domestic
emission reduction activities. However, the Protocol makes no mention of whether such
restrictions are to be qualitative (in terms of ensuring that there countries do adopt
domestic emission policies) or quantitative (in terms that those domestic policies must
achieve a certain portion of the target).
58
land-use
change.
The European Union (plus eleven East European countries) continues to be cautious
about emissions trading and the use of forestry sequestration. It seeks quantitative
restriction on the amount of emissions trading along the strict interpretation of
supplementarity.
The G-77 plus China, representing developing nations, is no longer a coherent bloc,
particularly in regards to the issues revolving around the Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM). Certain G-77 countries have now concluded that their best chance of gaining
benefit from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC
or the Convention) is through joining Annex I. Argentina, Bolivia and Kazakhstan (all
considered developing countries under the Kyoto Protocol) announced that they would
adopt voluntary limits on their greenhouse gas emission growth. Latin American nations
have participated actively in emissions reduction efforts and have generally become
ardent supporters of the Clean Development Mechanism. There are now also substantial
splits in this bloc in regards to forestry and supplementarity.
availability of accredited tonnes for purchase through 2012. Money raised by the sale of
these tons would then be invested in carbon abatement projects worldwide. Another
recent proposal suggested at the end of the first commitment period there should be a
short period (3 months) to allow for a final tally of emissions and last minute attempts to
reach emissions targets.
60
might have equally devastating effect in terms of poverty and environment, making the
precautionary argument irrelevant. One problem in attempting to measure the "absolute"
costs and benefits of different policies to global warming is choosing a proper discount
rate. Over a long time horizon such as that in which benefits accrue under Kyoto, small
changes in the discount rate create very large discrepancies between net benefits in
various studies. However, this difficulty is generally not applicable to "relative"
comparison of alternative policies under a long time horizon. This is because changes in
discount rate tend to equally adjust the net cost/benefit of different policies unless there
are significant discrepancies of cost and benefit over time horizon.
While it has been difficult to arrive at a scenario under which the net benefits of Kyoto
are positive using traditional discounting methods such as the Shadow Price of Capital
approach, some have argued that a much lower discount rate should be utilized; arguing
that high rates are biased toward the current generation. In part this is philosophical value
judgement which is outside the realm of economics.
Below is a list of the change in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2004 for some
countries that are part of the Climate Change Convention as reported by the United
Nations.
Country
Change in greenhouse EU
gas
Objective
Emissions (1990-2004) for 2012
Germany
Canada
Australia
Spain
United States
Norway
New Zealand
France
Greece
Ireland
Japan
-17%
+27%
+25%
+49%
+16%
+10%
+21%
-0.8%
+27%
+23%
+6.5%
-21%
N/A
N/A
+15%
N/A
N/A
N/A
0%
+25%
+13%
N/A
61
Assigned
United
Kingdom
-14%
-12.5%
-8%
Portugal
EU-15
+41%
-0.8%
+27%
N/A
-8%
-8%
Below is a table of the changes in CO2 emission of some other countries which are large
contributors, but are not required to meet numerical limitations.
Country
China
India
Comparing total greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 to 1990 levels, the US emissions were
up by 16%, with irregular fluctuations from one year to another but a general trend to
increase. At the same time, the EU group of 23 (EU-23) Nations had reduced their
emissions by 5%. In addition, the EU-15 group of nations (a large subset of EU-23)
reduced their emissions by 0.8% between 1990 and 2004, while emission rose 2.5% from
1999 to 2004. Part of the increases for some of the European Union countries are still
inline with the treaty, being part of the cluster of countries implementation (see objectives
in the list above).
Further complicating the debate over the Kyoto Protocol is the fact that CO2 emissions
growth in the US was far ahead of that of the EU-15 from 1990-2000, but from 20002004, America's rate of growth in CO2 emissions was eight percentage points lower than
from 1995-2000, while the EU-15 saw an increase of 2.3 points. From 2000-2004, the
62
United States' CO2 emissions growth rate was 2.1%, compared to the EU-15's 4.5%. That
happened while the US economy was expanding 38% faster than the economies of the
EU-15 while experiencing population growth at twice the rate of the EU-15. This
naturally has led to questions and debate about the merits of a mandatory emissions cap
approach (as currently adopted under Kyoto) versus a voluntary approach to emissions
reduction (as adopted by the United States.
As of year-end 2006, the United Kingdom and Sweden were the only EU countries on
pace to meet their Kyoto emissions commitments by 2010. While UN statistics indicate
that, as a group, the 36 Kyoto signatory countries can meet the 5% reduction target by
2012, most of the progress in greenhouse gas reduction has come from the stark decline
in Eastern European countries' emissions after the fall of communism in the 1990s.
63
The Kyoto Protocol broke new ground by defining three innovative flexibility
mechanisms to lower the overall costs of achieving its emissions targets. These
mechanisms enable Parties to access cost-effective opportunities to reduce emissions, or
to remove carbon from the atmosphere, in other countries. While the cost of limiting
emissions varies considerably from region to region, the effect for the atmosphere of
limiting emissions is the same, irrespective of where the action is taken.
Much of the negotiations on the mechanisms has been concerned with ensuring their
integrity. There was concern that the mechanisms do not confer a right to emit on
Annex I Parties or lead to exchanges of fictitious credits which would undermine the
Protocols environmental goals. The negotiators of the Protocol and the Marrakesh
Accords therefore sought to design a system that fulfilled the cost-effectiveness promise
of the mechanisms, while addressing concerns about environmental integrity and equity.
All three mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol are based on the Protocols system for
the accounting of targets. Under this system, the amount to which an Annex I Party must
reduce its emissions over the five year commitment period (known as its assigned
amount) is divided into units each equal to one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent.
These assigned amount units (AAUs), and other units defined by the Protocol, contribute
the basis for the Kyoto mechanisms by providing for a Party to gain credit from action
taken in other Parties that may be counted towards it own emissions target.
NATIONS
Annex I countries are the 36 industrialized countries and economies in transition listed in
Annex I of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or
the Convention). Their responsibilities under the Convention are various, and include a
non-binding commitment to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by
the year 2000. Annex B countries are the 39 emissions-capped industrialized countries
and economies in transition listed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol. Legally-binding
emission reduction obligations for Annex B countries range from an 8% decrease (e.g.,
64
various European nations) to a 10% increase (Iceland) in relation to 1990 levels during
the first commitment period from
2008 to 2012.
65
66
has a GWP of 1
67
The units which may be transferred under Article 17 emissions trading, each equal to one
metric tonne of emissions (in CO2-equivalent terms), may be in the form of:
An assigned amount unit (AAU) issued by an Annex I Party on the basis of its
assigned amount pursuant to Articles 3.7 and 3.8 of the Protocol.
A removal unit (RMU) issued by an Annex I Party on the basis of land use, landuse change and forestry (LULUCF) activities under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the
Kyoto Protocol.
Transfers and acquisitions of these units are to be tracked and recorded through the
registry systems under the Kyoto Protocol. These include a national registry to be
established and maintained by each Annex I Party. Parties may also authorize legal
entities (e.g. businesses, non-governmental organizations and other entities) to
participate, under their responsibility, in Article 17 emissions trading. Accounts may be
created in national registries to provide for such participation by legal entities.
68
CHAPTER 7
CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM(CDM)
69
7.1 INTRODUCTION
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows industrialized countries to finance
projects in developing countries and receive credit for emission reduction.In a CDM/JI
project both the buyer and seller of CO 2 allowances are interested in attaining the highest
level of CO2 reductions to be pulled out of a project. The certifying company which will
verify the amount of the quota will also be very interested in signing contracts with the
buyer and seller, and in practice, all of these three parties are on the same side of the table
in carbon trading. An independent managing body or court must therefore be given the
authority to decide if a CDM project does what it promises. The CDM has been defined
under Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol. It performs a three-fold function
to
the
ultimate
goal
of
the
convention
i.e.,
stabilization
of
GHG
70
The CDM has been designed to be innovative, and market-based so that developed
countries may invest in bankable projects in the developing ones. Emissions resulting
from the project should be lower than what would have occurred had the prevalent
technology been used. Emission reductions are expected to be real, measurable, and long
term.
Establishment of emissions additionality (reduction in emissions) is a prerequisite under
the CDM. However, in order to establish additionality of projects it becomes necessary to
define a baseline against which the additionalities can be assessed and carbon credits for
the project determined. Baselines can be project-specific or standardized
Consistent with the objective of the Convention, the CDM has to contribute to sustainable
development in developing countries. The Bonn Agreement states that the governments
of developing countries have the prerogative to judge how the projects will meet their
sustainable development goals
72
73
projects in India for the MNES. It has also developed case studies of potential CDM
projects in India and Asia relating to renewable energy, conventional power, and
industrial energy efficiency under studies funded by the Canadian International
Development Agency and the UK Foreign Commonwealth Office
Strategic overview of CDM opportunities for India and international demand for
GHG offsets
- Capacity building
TERI has organized training programmes and workshops for officials of MNES, Indian
Forest Service, National Thermal Power Corporation, various corporate, and nongovernmental organizations.
- Project development
Many companies seek TERI's advice to identify projects for CDM finance, estimate GHG
offsets and abatement costs, and develop projects that meet the mandatory requirements
of the CDM. TERI's activities include developing baseline studies, project idea notes, and
project design documents for renewable energy, fuel switching, and energy efficiency
projects.
74
CHAPTER 8
PROGRESS OF KYOTO PROTOCOL
75
76
The BEA said decisions made in the next 25 years would be critical. We are running out
of road on decision-making -- unless we dramatically change the use of fossil fuels we
will be committing future generations to the most severe impacts of climate change, said
Barbara Young, head of the agency.
The US National Aeronautics and Space Agency has said that 2005 was the warmest
year on the earths surface since records were kept in the 1860s. Another recent study
shows that concentrations of greenhouse gases were at their highest in 650,000 years.
Countries are not on track to reach even their modest Kyoto targets, despite growing
recognition that we are already facing dramatic consequences as a result of climate
change, said Catherine Pearce of the UK-based environmental group Friends of the
Earth.
Washington agreed at UN talks in Montreal, Canada, in December 2005 to take part in a
non-binding world dialogue about new ways to combat climate change. And Kyotos
backers agreed to talks about further action after the first phase of the treaty ends in 2012.
Meanwhile, the UN Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn, Germany, has said that the 34
industrialised countries and the European Union governed by the protocol could reach the
targeted cut in greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5% below 1990 levels. This target
must be met between 2008 and 2012, the protocols first phase.
Many of these countries are on their way to lowering their emission levels by at least
3.5% below 1990 levels during the first commitment period, Richard Kinley, head of the
secretariat said. By using additional measures and Kyoto market-based mechanisms, he
said they would reach their reduction targets as a group.
Reports submitted by industrialised countries to the UN Climate Change Secretariat at the
beginning of 2006 show the progress being made in setting policies and enacting
legislation and regulatory frameworks to accomplish the Kyoto emissions reduction
targets.
New policies put in place by the 15 countries that were European Union members when
the Kyoto treaty was adopted in 1997 have cut emissions by 1.7% compared to 1990
levels. This amount is equal to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of Denmark or
Bulgaria, the Secretariat said.
77
CHAPTER 9
LIMITATIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
78
Kyoto Protocol i.e. a roadmap to bring-back the level of Greenhouse gases to the level of
1990s or even to reduce that level has its own limitations. Full participation of all major
emitting countries is required. However, countries such as the United States, the worlds
leading economy, but also the worlds leading polluter, is not a signatory to the Protocol.
The British Environmental Agency (BEA) said decisions made in the next 25 years
would be critical. We are running out of road on decision-making -- unless we
dramatically change the use of fossil fuels we will be committing future generations to
the most severe impacts of climate change, said Barbara Young, head of the agency.
The US pulled out of Kyoto in 2001 saying it was too costly to implement and wrongly
excluded developing countries from the first round of targets. Large developing nations
such as India and China are exempt from the treatys emission targets because they said
their economies would take a serious hit if they were to change their energy policies.
The United States has also questioned scientific opinion that mankind is responsible for
global warming, saying there was not enough evidence to warrant Kyoto-style curbs.
It is questionable whether carbon emissions trading will bring a certifiable reduction. As
now embodied in the EU emissions trading scheme, fossil-fuel-burning companies such
as power utilities, steelworks or cement factories are granted substantial carbon credits
that they can sell - on the basis that they have emitted less than expected. That may
provide some incentive to look to more efficient technologies, but the assumption is that
79
someone elsewhere, even in another country, is going to buy that credit in order to
pollute.
In addition, the use of tradeable carbon units combined with the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) - whereby the Kyoto signatories from industrialised nations can
invest in emission-reduction projects in developing countries - has huge potential for
environmental damage and fraud.
The US National Aeronautics and Space Agency has said that 2005 was the warmest
year on the earths surface since records were kept in the 1860s. Another recent study
shows that concentrations of greenhouse gases were at their highest in 650,000 years.
Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States, which is not a Kyoto signatory, were
about 16% above 1990 levels in 2004. But Kyoto signatories Spain, Portugal, Greece,
Ireland and Canada are all doing even worse.
Countries are not on track to reach even their modest Kyoto targets, despite growing
recognition that we are already facing dramatic consequences as a result of climate
change, said Catherine Pearce of the UK-based environmental group Friends of the
Earth. Meanwhile, the UN Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn, Germany, has said that
the 34 industrialized countries and the European Union governed by the protocol could
reach the targeted cut in greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5% below 1990 levels. This
target must be met between 2008 and 2012, the protocols first phase.
Reports submitted by industrialized countries to the UN Climate Change Secretariat at
the beginning of 2006 show the progress being made in setting policies and enacting
legislation and regulatory frameworks to accomplish the Kyoto emissions reduction
targets.
We can only wish that all countries including USA and Australia should join the Protocol
and sincerely make efforts to lower the level of GHGs in the atmosphere. Besides,
regularly monitoring of the efforts made by all the countries in implementing the treaty is
80
required, so that our future generations should not blame us for irrational climatic and
other conditions on the earth.
CHAPTER 10
CONCLUSION
81
The gases in the atmosphere that help retain heat are called greenhouse gases(GHGs).
Major green House Gases are CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, Halocarbons, Water
vapours etc. These gases, absorb heat instead of allowing it to escape into space. This
"greenhouse effect" makes the planet a hospitable place. Over the past 10,000 years, the
amount of these greenhouse gases in our atmosphere has been relatively stable. But since
last 150 years , concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere began to increase. The level of
Green house gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere impact human life and the environment
in a number of ways. Climatic changes in weather, temperature, rainfall, humidity and
various other ecological features of our biosphere are caused by level of GHGs in the
atmosphere.
The main cause of increase in the level of GHGs in the atmosphere are following
factors.
(i)Energy caused by industrialization and rising populations, and
(ii) To changing land use and human settlement patterns.
Some of the climate changes we are likely to see if such trend continues are:
Natural processes like volcanic eruptions, changes in the suns intensity etc.
82
The high sea levels which accompany storms will become higher and occur more
frequently, increasing coastal flooding
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
adopted by consensus at the third session of the Conference of the Parties n December
1997strengthens the international response to climate change. It contains legally binding
emissions targets for stated developed countries for the post-2000 period. The concept of
carbon credit came into vogue as part of an international agreement.
The objective of the Kyoto Protocol is to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, mitigate climate change, and promote sustainable development. The Protocol
is historic in that it is the first attempt to achieve international agreements to mitigate
global climate change through reduction in Green House Gases, and the first to employ
the flexibility of the global market place for global environmental management. It is a
classic win-win situation. In Simple words, it allows industrialized countries to buy or
sell parts of the national emissions quota allocated by the Kyoto Protocol. Trade is
limited to industrialized countries. The government of each country may allow companies
to buy and sell emissions permits. . Carbon credits are certificates issued to countries that
reduce their emissions of green house gases, which causes global warming.
The EU and its Member States ratified the Kyoto Protocol in late May 2002, The
agreement came into force on February 16, 2005 following ratification by Russia on
November 18, 2004. As of April 2006, a total of 163 countries have ratified the
agreement (representing over 61.6% of emissions). Notable exceptions include the United
States and Australia. Other countries, like India and China, which have ratified the
protocol, are not required to reduce carbon emissions under the present agreement.
83
Specific mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol compliance regime are still under
development and no clearly defined penalty regime exists
The preliminary phase of the Kyoto Protocol is to start in 07 while the second phase
starts from 08.
WE hope that in due course of time, the earlier level of GHGs in the atmosphere will be
restored and maintained, making the earth a good habitat.
ANNEXURE
Rank Country
CO2
emissions
Percentage
of
in thousands of total emissions
metric tons
1
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
World total
United
24,126,416
States 5,844,042
100 %
24.3 %
European Union
3,682,755
People's Republic of 3,513,103
China
Russia
1,432,513
India
1,220,926
Japan
1,203,535
Germany
804,701
United Kingdom 543,633
15.3 %
Canada
South Korea
Italy
2.1 %
1.8 %
1.8 %
517,157
446,190
433,018
84
14.5 %
5.9 %
5.1 %
5.0 %
3.3 %
2.3 %
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
Mexico
France
383,671
368,315
1.6 %
Iran
Australia
South Africa
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
Malaysia
Netherlands
360,223
356,342
345,382
340,555
313,757
150,630
150,877
1.5 %
1.5 %
1.4 %
1.4 %
1.3 %
<1%
North Korea
143,216
Czech Republic
114,563
Pakistan
108,677
United Arab Emirates 94,163
Greece
94,117
Iraq
79,471
Belgium
70,592
Israel
69,607
Kuwait
59,879
Singapore
57,471
Denmark
47,620
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Switzerland
Bangladesh
New
40,854
34,540
Zealand 33,964
<1%
<1%
30,118
12,452
10,361
7,628
7,212
3,847
3,114
1,654
618
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Oman
Zimbabwe
Sri Lanka
Myanmar
Kenya
Nepal
Mauritius
Uganda
Afghanistan
85
1.6 %
<1%
<1%
<1%
BIBLIOGRAPHY
NEWSPAPERS
Economic Times
LINKS
www.unfcc.int
www.ipcc.ch
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol
www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/kyoto/kyotorpt.html
ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/kyoto
www.ec.gc.ca/climate/kyoto
www.environment.about.com/
www.co2e.com
www.pewclimate.org
www.news.bbc.co.uk
www.eia.doe.gov/
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