Professional Documents
Culture Documents
The below are simply the impressions I get from my surroundings here,
although obviously viewed through the prism of my past experience. Of
course you don't know me and thus can't really judge my
qualifications or experience, and I had therefore intended to also
attach my CV, just in case. Unfortunately your website does not allow
me to attach material, but in case it's of interest, you can find my
CV on LinkedIn.
And on that note, hope the below will be useful / of interest. Please
feel free to circulate this, if you believe that this could be of
interest to your wider audience (which I hope), and/or to use this or
parts thereof for your own analysis, as you see fit. In this context
please note that the below does not in any way reflect the views of my
employer, and that I of course would prefer to remain anonymous, just
in case you decide to circulate or use (some of) this.
Best regards and keep up the good work,
Michael Niedermayr
Administration Manager
METKA Damascus, Syria
mobile: +963-(0)993-107013
email: michael.niedermayr@metka.gr
skype: michael.niedermayr
--------------------------------While the overall picture remains somewhat murky, it would appear that
the unrest in Syria unfolded in a number of distinct stages, as
follows:
- Initial demonstrations in Deraa in mid-March, when a number of
families in the area demanded the release of a group of teenagers, who
had reportedly been detained by the local authorities for spraying
graffiti, presumably inspired by the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings.
- A rather heavy-handed crackdown by the local authorities, which
reportedly also led to a number of casualties. This was probably at
least partly due to the fact that the authorities were apparently
genuinely surprised by and thus not accustomed to this kind of public
dissent, something that was also alluded to in the president's two
speeches (and more so in the second one), following the uprising.
- Tough talk by the government, nevertheless followed by a partial
withdrawal of security forces from the areas immediately affected, and
hints at possible reforms.
- A series of Friday demonstrations (always following prayers - the
only time Syrians can congregate in larger numbers under the then
emergency regulations), spreading to neighboring villages, and at
times leading to further confrontations with the security forces,
followed by funeral processions and more demonstrations, interspersed
with reform promises from the government, more often than not
conveniently announced on a Thursday.
- Despite these promises, culminating in the abrogation of the
'emergency law' (a key demand of the initial protests), these
'concessions' were summarily dismissed by the 'opposition' as
merely symbolic, and by end of March the demonstrations (unrest?) had
spread further, first to the coastal areas and specifically Latakia
and Banyas, a number of Damascus suburbs, the Kurdish areas, Homs and
the border areas to Lebanon. And while the initial call in Deraa was
simply for the release of their relatives, for the (related)
abrogation of the emergency law, against corruption and for reform in
general, this slowly gave way to 'calls to topple the regime'.
that certain individuals and groups were well prepared for just such
an eventuality, in the wake of the wider regional unrest, ready to use
the occasion as a pretext to push their own agendas. The recent
proliferation of self-proclaimed and here thereto unheard of Syrian
'human rights' activists and organizations is in this context
equally noteworthy, as is the fact that during the initial month of
the unrest thousands of unlicensed buildings went up almost over
night, across the country, or reports of significantly
increased/increasing petty criminality, with the authorities
preoccupied elsewhere. The latter two issues, while clearly unrelated
to the protests themselves, nevertheless nicely illustrate that others
are more than willing to take advantage of the situation.
Speaking of which, since the beginning of the uprising, the Syrian
regime has not only blamed outside forces for instigating the unrest,
it has also warned that this would invariably lead to chaos, sectarian
strive, and ultimately civil war. But while it is clearly in the
regime's interest to paint the picture as stark as possible in order
to scare both the protesters and everybody else off the streets, and
to justify it's own rather heavy-handed crackdown, this does not in
itself mean that the prediction is incorrect, nor that the government
would not be compelled to counter this perceived threat. This is not
to say that the opposition currently is widespread enough to endanger
the regime, it clearly isn't, but should the regime indeed fall,
then it would certainly be everybody fending for him/herself, which in
this region invariably means Sunnis pitted against Christians, Shias
and Alawites, and Kurds against Arabs, similar to what we have
recently seen in Iraq, albeit without the foreign occupation. But
while some outside forces are probably willing to take this risk (with
some like the Egyptian Islamic theologian Yusuf al-Qaradawi even
accepting the possibility of civil war publicly as a necessary evil in
order to topple what he sees as a heretic regime), since it anyway
won't be them paying the price while nevertheless reaping the gains,
or at least so they hope, both the international community at large
and the local demonstrators themselves appear largely oblivious to the
dangers.
The exact numbers of demonstrators to date are impossible to verify,
however they seldom appear to exceed a few thousand for a particular
event, are more often than not in the hundreds, and thus probably
represent less than a percent of the population. But whereas in most
countries this would simply be taken as evidence that the vast
majority does not sympathize or agree with the protesters' demands,
at least not to the extend that they would join them, in Syria's
case the 'Western' assumption, and aptly supported by the
opposition's narrative, seems to be that nobody can be happy living
under such a regime and that thus people that don't protest, other
than the 'few' linked directly to (and presumably corruptly
benefiting from) the regime, don't do so only out of fear. This is
not to say that there may not be people too afraid to protest
(although the vast majority of Syrians certainly don't seem to go
about their daily business constantly looking over the shoulder,
worried that the security forces might be creeping up on them), but
even if they were to come out, it is doubtful that they would raise
the number of demonstrators to anywhere near significant. And in the
meantime, the mere assumption that the silent majority would otherwise
also protest is at best patronizing, if not outright undemocratic in
itself. Similar arguments were used to discredit the few pro-regime
demonstrations to date, which nevertheless drew vast superior numbers,
but again the mere fact that these were (of course) encouraged and
facilitated by the regime, does not mean that the people did not join
them willingly, driving around and waiving flags, and that in support
of the president, and equally important, against what they see as
others meddling in and endangering their country. A similar argument,
by the way, can also be made about the recent Palestinian protesters
crossing into the Israeli occupied Golan, who although probably
encouraged (or at the very least not hindered) by the Syrian regime,
nevertheless did so willingly and out of their own conviction,
motivated by their desire to exercise their right to return.
The international community's response has at first been muted, but
the rhetoric has since changed, with increasing condemnation of the
regime, accompanied by widening sanctions, although what exactly this
is meant to achieve remains far from clear. Whatever their intentions
- out of conviction or lack thereof, out of a desire to change
Syria's stance vis-A -vis Iran and/or Israel, out of ignorance or
mere animosity towards the regime, or simply because they had
previously painted themselves into a corner, from which they now
can't get themselves out - combined with what appears to be a
concerted media campaign, and that in the wake of Iraq and Libya, it
is not surprising, that the Syrian regime and the population at large
believe that they are at the receiving end of one big conspiracy. Be
that as it may, current international action is unlikely to benefit
either side, neither is it going to tilt the scales in favor of the
opposition to the extent that they will be able to unseat the present
regime, nor will it entice the regime to speed up reforms, which,
pushed into a corner and under additional financial constrains, will
be even less inclined and able to do so, even if they wanted to. In
the meantime, these measures will only serve to polarize the situation
further, and the end result will in all likelihood be a hardening of
fronts on all sides, which given the current state of affairs, can't
really be in anybody's interest, including the international
community's, and certainly not in the short to medium term.
The main question here would not seem to be whether people are (still)
being killed (however sad or shocking this in itself may be), or
whether the government's crackdown is ruthless, they are and it
probably is, but rather whether it is innocent and peaceful protesters
that are (still) being targeted (and killed) by the security forces.
Not an easy question to answer, not least because of the media ban and
the conflicting narratives, but judging from recent opposition and
media reports, demonstrations have continued despite the army's
crackdown, even if in somewhat smaller numbers, and casualty numbers
have not only dropped significantly, they are now also mostly
constrained to areas where even opposition activist are claiming that
the army is being confronted by armed resistance. The mere fact that
demonstrations do continue, even in areas that have just seen the
army's crackdown, and that now reportedly mostly (even if not
completely) incident free, could also be taken as a sign that the
government's crackdown is not that heavy-handed after all, and that
they have thus learned from their earlier mistakes.
Whatever the case, both the government and increasingly also
opposition activists (again judging from their own statements to the
international media) seem to concur that the regime may have managed
to dodge the proverbial bullet, at least this time around, and even if
the latter would wish it was different. Probably the best indicator
that the tide may be turning is however the mood in Damascus itself,
where people and traffic have been back out in force for the last two
weeks (and especially weekends), whereas previously, although largely