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Executive Summary
The case is about Dow Chemicals bid for the privatization of Petroquimica
Bahia Blanca (PBB). PBB, a producer of both Ethylene and Polyethylene in
Argentina, is being privatized by the local government. Dow holds a leading
market position in Ethylene and Polyethylene, and wants to utilize this
opportunity to expand into Argentina. Dow has developed a three-stage
operational strategy for expansion of its polyethylene operations in
Argentina. The acquisition of PBB represents the first stage of the strategy
and provides a gateway to the second and third stage. The cash flows from
each stage of the project have been valued using the discounted cash flow
(DCF) approach. The discount rate for the valuation has been adjusted for
the country risk premium, and a modified version of CAPM has been used to
calculate a best case and a worst case estimate of the discount rate. This
gives us a range of possible acquisition values for PBB. Given that the
acquisition also enables Dow to benefit from the from the high cash flows of
the second and third stage of the project and that other parties are also
interested in the acquisition, it is recommended that Dow bids a relatively
high price of $280 million for PBB.
Introduction
Dow had been interested in the Argentina market since the 50s when it
asked the Argentine government to develop a petrochemical complex. The
government developed the complex in the late 70s and this led to the
creation of PBB. In a bid to become more open and attract foreign direct
investment, the government decided to privatize PBB in 1995. The expected
growth of Argentina and the high forecasted demand for Polyethylene made
PBB an attractive acquisition. Dow was a multinational company with 94
plants across 30 countries. Dow had a presence in several countries of Latin
Analysis
As far as polyethylene market is concerned, Dow Chemical lacks a strong
footing in Argentina. If Dow Chemical decides against operating in a strong
growth region like Argentina, it might be risking its leading position in
polyethylene. On the other hand, Dow has sufficient operating experience in
Argentina through Dow Quimica. The PBB project fits Dow Chemicals
strategy to be a cost leader through horizontal/vertical integration,
technological leadership, and global presence. PBB is large Argentinean
Company which represents 25% of the total Mercosur production. Due to its
12. The dotted line in exhibit 12 is the estimate of the bond yield spread over
the stated period. The spread becomes insanely high during periods of crisis,
but for the majority of the period between 1991 and 1994, the spread
remains between 5% and 7%. The spread can be seen to be returning to this
level at the end of 1995, after the stabilizing measures taken by the
government. It is believed that a bond yield spread of 6% will be an
appropriate measure to use on a long-term basis. The recent country ratings
for Argentina by Moodys rating agency confirm this assumption. The bond
yield spread of 6% needs to be adjusted for the equity market volatility
factor. The equity markets are more volatile than the bond market and the
volatility factor, therefore, accounts for the added risk. The volatility factor
can be calculated by dividing the standard deviation in equity market by the
standard deviation in bond market. The equity market volatility factor has
been found to be averaging around 1.5 times in the developing markets
(Damodaran, 2012). It is assumed that Argentinean market has the same
volatility. Using the bond yield spread and the equity market volatility, a
country risk premium of 9% has been calculated for Argentina (calculations
shown in attached spreadsheet).
while the cash flows with 19% discount rate are termed the worst case cash
flows. They will give us a range of possible acquisition values for PBB.
Conclusion
The minimum bid, as required by the privatization rules, is $150 million. The
intrinsic value of PBB, as calculated by DCF approach is between $384
million and $545 million. However, only 51% of the total value of PBB is
being sold, while the remaining 49% will be retained by the government. For
a 51% stake, the range of intrinsic values is between around $200 million
and $280 million. However, this is only the intrinsic value for the stage 1 of
the project alone, Besides giving a 51% claim on the stage 1 cash flows, the
acquisition of PBB will also provide Dow with an option to proceed with stage
2 and stage 3 of the project. The value of such an option should also be
taken into consideration when deciding on a bid price for PBB.
Although there are significant uncertainties attached with the second and
third stage, their cash values translate into significant value for Dow. The
cash flows from stage 2 are valued between $200 million and $280 million,
but Dow will also need to acquire Ipako to realize them. Similarly, the cash
flows from are valued between $130 million and $430 million, but Dow will
have to reach a deal with YPF. These contingencies and uncertainties will
take a considerable tool out of the cash flows from the later stages, but they
will still add value to Dow Chemicals. Therefore, Dow Chemicals needs to
make sure that it acquires PBB so that it can realize the cash flows from the
later stages. We recommend that Dow bids a value for PBB that is close to
the upper bound of $280 million.
References
Fernandez, P and Baonza, J (2010) Market Risk Premium Used in 2010 by Analysts
and Companies: A Survey with 2,400 Answers, Working Paper
Damodaran, A (2012) Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums, New York
University (Stern)