1

Wind Turbine Build-outs and CO2 emissions in Ireland.

F. Udo
February 9, 2015

1. Introduction.
The Irish electricity distribution grid has seen a rapid evolution in the last 5 years.
During the 2010 to 2014 period, 1,4 billion euro was spent to erect 835 MW wind turbines and 0,6
billion on a 500MW high voltage link to England. This article tries to answer the question:
Is this 2 billion euro well spent?

There is much debate about the efficacy of wind energy in supplying electricity to existing distribution
grids. In principle it can be measured accurately by monitoring the fuel use of all the generators
involved.
The problem is, that this data is not available in the public domain, so one resorts to model calculations
using the static characteristics of the generators involved. Dynamic effects due to regulation of the
generators and spinning reserves are mostly neglected. The published data about the CO2 emissions in
the Irish electricity distribution grid is a case in point.
The Irish grid authority Eirgrid publishes every 15 minutes the total demand, the wind energy
produced and CO2 emission calculated in a way as mentioned above1).

Using this data2) it was possible to show, that in the absence of hydropower in April 2011 the efficacy
of insertion of wind power in the grid was less than 40%, or in other words: More than 60% of the
wind energy produced did not save any fuel. Wheatley3) showed by using detailed output data of
generators, that the CO2 reduction in all 2011 was only 70% of the expected value. This is confirmed in
the year report 2013 of the Sustainable Energy Authority (SEAI) 4).

Nevertheless the CO2 emissions in the year 2011 were at an all time low due to the commissioning of
two new CCGT gas power plants. Two questions remain:
A. How close are the results of the Eirgrid CO2 emission calculations to the actual emissions?
B. Did the investments lead to substantial fuel savings?
All numbers used in this article are taken from the websites of Eirgrid and SEAI.

2. The CO2 emission derived from fuel input data.
The Year Reports of the SEAI provide the total fuel input and the input fuel mix for the electricity
generation per year5). The calorific value of each fuel is expressed in a common unit: Kilo Tons Oil
Equivalent or ktoe. The electricity produced is given in the same units to enable a comparison of the
fuel input and the electricity output.
Appendix 1 presents the data also in this unit to enable a direct verification with the numbers given in
the yearly reports of the SEAI. One ktoe = 11,6 GWh.
Appendix 1 presents the calculation of the CO2 intensity for 2006 starting from the composition of the
input fuel mix. It is based upon the calorific values and specific CO2 emissions of the different
combustibles and on the ratio of total fuel input to total electricity output.

Renewables are always attributed zero emissions in the CO2 balance, but windmills and wood pellets
are far from CO2 free. Appendix 3 gives some data for wind turbines in order to show, that the results
given in this paper are still underestimates of the real emissions.

The CO2 emissions calculated in Appendix 1 are compared for each year in the period 2006 -2013 to
the SEAI numbers. The SEAI numbers given here are also corrected for imports & exports.
Figure 1 shows the comparison of the two sets of data.

CO2 emission in g/kWh

2 data sets

g/kWh

700
650
600
550
500

SEAI data

450
400
2005

SEAI Fuel inputs

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

The method of calculation of the SEAI numbers is not explicitly given, but the results of the two
methods are nearly identical, so both datasets are most probably obtained in the same way.
The gradual decline from 2006 to 2010 is explained by an increase of the contribution of gas to the fuel
mix. The dip in 2011 is explained by SEAI as due to the commissioning of two new gas plants, which
where under-used in subsequent years due to coal getting cheaper.
It is now possible to test the CO2 model calculations of Eirgrid against numbers, which are derived
directly from fuel input data.

3. The comparison with the Eirgrid data.
Appendix 2 shows the numbers obtained by integrating the Eirgrid 15 minute data. The numbers are
summed over the years 2010 to 2014
The calculated CO2 emission intensities can now be compared to the data derived from fuel inputs for
the period 2010 to 2014. Figure 2 presents the comparison between the 3 data sets. The model data
are derived from the 15 data as described in appendix 2. It is clear, that the model underestimates the
actual emissions by about 6%.

700

CO2 emission in g/kWh

3 data sets

650

600

550

SEAI data

500

SEAI Fuel inputs

450

400
2005

Eirgrid 15'data

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Note 1:
The fuel input data for 2014 are not yet published, but the Eirgrid 15-minute data clearly indicates that
the result for 2014 will be around 520g CO2/kWh. This implies, that the performance of the electricity
generating system has not improved between 2010 and 2014.
Note 2:
If the contribution of wind is 20%, the overall CO2 intensity rises by 10 gCO2/kWh.
The CO2 content of biofuels is subject to an intense discussion, so this contribution has not been
considered.

4. Conclusions
The first observation is, that the Eirgrid model underestimates the real emissions by about 6%. This
validates the objections stated in the introduction against the procedure followed by Eirgrid. This
proves, that the losses calculated in ref 2 are too low.

The second observation is, that the CO2 intensity has risen significantly since 2010/2011 despite two
billion euro spent on an increase in wind turbine capacity from 1260 MW to 2211 MW between 2010
and 2014, and the benefit of the East-West link in 2013 and 2014.
The total generating capacity in Ireland has risen from 6500 MW in 2006 to 9500 MW in 2014 6), while
the consumption of electricity has not risen at all during this period. The generating capacity stands
now at more than three times the average consumption level, largely due to the build out of wind
power and the interconnector to England. This is proof, that wind does not replace dispatchable power.

The effect of this investment is nullified by a slight increase in the use of coal in the fossil fuel mix, as gas
became expensive in the recent years. The performance of the system in 2011 shows clearly, that without
the extra windmills and without the E-W link, but with the new CCGT gas units operating one does better
than with all the new wind turbines and E-W link.

The 600 million euro costing E-W link allows Eirgrid to export the problems of incorporating wind energy
to the UK. The Eirgrid data shows, that during the last two years the E-W link served as peak shaver
during the day and as a sink for unwanted wind production during the night. A report of SEAI states, that
dispatch down of wind energy (curtailment) in 2013 was halved due to the presence of the link.

This bad performance of the greening of the electricity supply comes on top of the enormous social and
economical cost of littering of the landscape with thousands of 160 meters high rotating monsters.


Appendix 1
Calculation of CO2 intensity from fuel input data.
The table shows the transformation of the fuel input mix to CO2 emission/kWh for 2006.
The amounts of input fuel and output electricity are expressed in Kilo Ton Oil Equivalent, a common
energy unit to account for the calorific values of the different fuels. One ktoe = 11,6 GWh

Table: Calculation CO2 intensity based on data from the year 2006.

SEAI
1
2
3
4
Input data
Total
Fuel mix
Contribution Combustion
Fuel
ktoe
%
gCO2 /kWh
gCO2 /kWh
Coal
1265
26,2%
340
89
Peat
458
9,5%
414
39
Oil eo
693
14,3%
264
38
Gas
2417
50,0%
206
103
Total
4833
100%
269


-The energy input for fossil generated electricity is the sum of all 4 components: 4833 ktoe
The 2nd column represents the fractional contribution of each fuel.

-The 3rd column shows the amount of CO2 emitted by combustion of 1 kWh of each element of the fuel
mix. In other words the 3rd column says: A generator running on coal with 100% efficiency emits 340
g/kWh.
The last column shows the contribution of each fuel component to the CO2 emission of the
input mix. This is obtained by multiplying column 2 by column 3.
Column 4 shows, that the fuel mix as used in 2006 produces 269 gram CO2 for the burning of 1 kWh
fuel. In this way we change from ktoe to kWh without introducing electricity generation efficiencies for
each fuel separately.
The efficacy of the transformation from fuel to electricity follows from the ratio between the total
amount of fuel burned and the total electricity produced.
The European rule is to attribute CO2 emissions of exported power to the country of origin, so official

numbers for the CO2 emissions include no contribution for imports.

The recently completed East-West connection is used to import up to 500 MW during the day, while
during windy nights superfluous wind energy is exported.
Here we study the performance of the Irish system, so imports are subtracted from (and exports are
added to) the total demand or energy delivered to determine the indigenous production.

The total electricity generation in 2006 is given as 2225 ktoe in the SAEI report 2006.
Less net imports




153 ktoe
Less the contribution from renewables

231 ktoe
Net fossil electricity production


1841 ktoe

The energy conversion efficiency is now output/input: 1841/4833 = 38,1% for the generation from
fossil fuels.
Table 1 shows, that 1 kWh fuel mix produces 269 gCO2/kWh, so the production of 1 kWh electricity
from fossil fuels emits: 269/0,381 = 706 gCO2/kWh, a surprisingly high number.

Adding the contribution of renewables (231 ktoe) to the 1841 ktoe electricity production increases the
indigenous production to 2072 ktoe and increases the apparent energy conversion efficiency to 42,9%.
This lowers the apparent CO2 intensity to 628 gCO2/kWh.


Appendix 2:
The CO2 data of Eirgrid.
On the website of Eigrid one finds the following text:
EirGrid, with the support of the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, has together developed the
following methodology for calculating CO2 emissions. The rate of carbon emissions is calculated in real time
by using the generators MW output, the individual heat rate curves for each power station and the calorific
values for each type of fuel used. The heat rate curves are used to determine the efficiency at which a
generator burns fuel at any given time. The fuel calorific values are then used to calculate the rate of carbon
emissions for the fuel being burned by the generator.

It is clear from this definition, that the model does not include the dynamic behaviour of the system
and neglects the spinning reserve. This casts doubt on the level of emissions calculated from the model.
The data is presented on the Eirgrid website at intervals of 15 minutes, so one has 2900 lines each
month and 35000 lines of data for each year. Publication started in 2010, so 2010 contains only two
months of data.
Table 1 presents the integral over a year of the Eirgrid data.
The total demand entries are remarkably stable. They are corrected for imports & exports in row 3.

Table 1

Imports GWh
Tot.-imports GWh
Tot. CO2 kTons
CO2 g/kWh

2010
4880
88
4792
2333
486,8

2011
25791
516
25275
11660
461,3

2012
25631
436
25195
12960
514,4

2013
25846
2249
23597
11590
491,2

2014
25781
2552
23229
11450
492,9

Tot. Wind GWh

Wind%

515
10,6%

4233
16,4%

4104
16,0%

4644
18,0%

4925
19,1%

Tot.Demand GWh

-Row 3 is row 1 minus row 2 or the total demand minus imports.

-The CO2 emissions are extracted from the 15-minute Eirgrid tables.
The units are metric tons (1000kg).
-These CO2 emissions are generated by the Eirgrid model as described above in italics.
-The emission intensity is calculated by dividing total CO2 emission in kilotons by the indigenous
production (Row 4 divided by row 3).


Appendix 3
Additional fuel use by windmills.
Wind energy is nearly always characterised as a clean source of energy without CO2 emissions.
This is not quite true as the construction, transport, erection and maintenance of windmills requires
energy.

This component is minimised by wind energy proponents by stating, that a mill recuperates its own
energy within a few months. Authors from outside the wind business are more critical.
A. Ir J van Oorschot director of a large Dutch civil engineering company involved in the building of
windmills calculates a period of 1,5 years at a capacity factor of 0,22, the Dutch average7.
B. A calculation8 based on the data from a group at Sydney gives 11,5 months recuperation period
based on a cap factor of 25%.

The conclusion from these two studies is, that a period of one year is a fair estimate for the Irish mills.
This back pay period assumes an efficiency of 100% in the incorporation of wind energy in the grid.
Reference 4 shows, that this efficiency is 63% in Ireland so a better estimate of the payback time is 1,5
years. The Irish mills are subsidised for a period of 15 years, so after this they are mostly exchanged
for new ones with new subsidies.
The result is, that the fuel use is 1,5 years out of 15 years, so at least 10% of the total energy production
is fossil energy with corresponding CO2 emissions of about 500 gCO2/kWh.
This gives a CO2 content of wind energy of 50 gCO2/kWh.

The amount of wind energy is rapidly increasing with time, so this additional contribution to the CO2
intensity is also increasing with time. This contribution nor the CO2 content in the other renewables
was taken into account in this text.

References.

1
www.eirgrid.com
The section Operations contains 15 minutes data about the total demand, the CO2 emission and the
wind production. The data for the East-West connection are available under the head East West. The
graphs for wind energy and for the imports from the EW link show a nice anti correlation on Jan 15
2015. Ireland exports the variations in wind energy to the UK.

2
F. Udo, Wind energy in the Irish power system.

http://www.clepair.net/IerlandUdo.html

3
J.B. Wheatley: Quantifying CO2 savings from windpower;

Energy Policy, 2013, vol. 63, issue C, pages 89-96.

4.
This effect has been recognised now by the Sustainable Energy Authority in its year report

Quantifying Irelands Fuel and CO2 Emissions Savings from Renewable Electricity in 2012
Quote page 2:
Individual fossil-fuel generators run in less efficient modes with renewable electricity generation on the
system, showing a 7% increase in the CO2 emissions intensity for such generators.
In 2012 the part of wind energy on the total was 16%. Neglecting the 4% hydro this implies, that 84%
of the total generation was fossil driven and had an efficiency loss of 7%.
This 84% used 1,07 * 0,84 = 0,90 of the fuel it would use without wind, hence the fuel gain is 10% for
16% wind. The efficacy of wind is 10/16 = 63%.
Note:
This is data from an official report. This is a rare example of honesty from a government agency about
the extra fuel necessary to incorporate wind energy into an existing grid..

5
The annual reports for the period 2006 to 2013 are listed under the title Energy in Ireland

www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/

6


7

More on the Energy Bubble

http://irishenergyblog.blogspot.nl/2015/01/energy-bub.html
The calculation is presented in ref 13 of:
C. le Pair en K. de Groot: De invloed van elektriciteit uit wind op het fossiel brandstofgebruik.
(in Dutch)
F. Udo: Building wind turbines costs more energy than you think.

http://www.clepair.net/Udo201303payback.html