Assignment 1: DiscussionPopulation Growth

To study the growth of a population mathematically, we use the concept of exponential models.
Generally speaking, if we want to predict the increase in the population at a certain period in time,
we start by considering the current population and apply an assumed annual growth rate. For
example, if the U.S. population in 2008 was 301 million and the annual growth rate was 0.9%, what
would be the population in the year 2050? To solve this problem, we would use the following formula:
P(1 + r)

In this formula, P represents the initial population we are considering, r represents the annual growth
rate expressed as a decimal and n is the number of years of growth. In this example, P =
301,000,000, r = 0.9% = 0.009 (remember that you must divide by 100 to convert from a percentage
to a decimal), and n = 42 (the year 2050 minus the year 2008). Plugging these into the formula, we
find:
n

P(1 + r) = 301,000,000(1 + 0.009)

= 301,000,000(1.009)

42

42

= 301,000,000(1.457)
= 438,557,000
Therefore, the U.S. population is predicted to be 438,557,000 in the year 2050.
Lets consider the situation where we want to find out when the population will double. Lets use this
same example, but this time we want to find out when the doubling in population will occur assuming
the same annual growth rate. Well set up the problem like the following:
Double P = P(1 + r)

P will be 301 million, Double P will be 602 million, r = 0.009, and we will be looking for n.
Double P = P(1 + r)

602,000,000 = 301,000,000(1 + 0.009)n

Now, we will divide both sides by 301,000,000. This will give us the following:
2 = (1.009)

To solve for n, we need to invoke a special exponent property of logarithms. If we take the log of both
sides of this equation, we can move exponent as shown below:
log 2 = log (1.009)n
log 2 = n log (1.009)
Now, divide both sides of the equation by log (1.009) to get:
n = log 2 / log (1.009)
Using the logarithm function of a calculator, this becomes:

n = log 2/log (1.009) = 77.4

Therefore, the U.S. population should double from 301 million to 602 million in 77.4 years assuming
annual growth rate of 0.9 %.
Now it is your turn:

Search the Internet and determine the most recent population of your home state. A good
place to start is the U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) which maintains all demographic
information for the country. If possible, locate the annual growth rate for your state. If you can
not locate this value, feel free to use the same value (0.9%) that we used in our example
above.
o

Determine the population of your state 10 years from now.

Determine how long and in what year the population in your state may double
assuming a steady annual growth rate.

Look up the population of the city in which you live. If possible, find the annual percentage
growth rate of your home city (use 0.9% if you can not locate this value).
o

Determine the population of your city in 10 years.

Determine how long until the population of your city doubles assuming a steady
growth rate.

Discuss factors that could possibly influence the growth rate of your city and state.
o

Do you live in a city or state that is experiencing growth?

Is it possible that you live in a city or state where the population is on the decline or
hasnt changed?

How would you solve this problem if the case involved a steady decline in the
population (say -0.9% annually)? Show an example.

Think of other real world applications (besides monitoring and modeling populations) where
exponential equations can be utilized.

By Saturday, March 14, 2015, deliver your assignment to the appropriate Discussion Area.
Through Wednesday, March 18, 2015, review and comment on your peers responses.