WICKED PROBLEMS:CLUMSY

SOLUTIONS
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

Steve Rayner
James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization

WICKED PROBLEMS
Identified by Horst Rittel in late 1960s as characterizing social
problems
Contrasted relatively easy challenges of public health
engineering in late 19th & early 20th centuries with late 20th
century urban planning
Also compared puzzle-solving in mathematics & natural science
with complexities of social policy
Noted challenges of increasing heterogeneity & value conflicts
in modern society
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

CHARACTERISTICS OF WICKED PROBLEMS

Symptoms of deeper problems

Little room for trial & error learning
Lack a clear set of alternative solutions
Characterized by contradictory certitudes
Involve entrenched interests
Persistent & insoluble
Coping not solving
Feasibility not optimality

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS ARE

LOOKING INCREASINGLY WICKED
Basic clean air & water legislation was based on public
experience
London pea-soupers in 1952 killed 12,000 people
Cuyahoga river fires 1936-1969 were highly visible

Contemporary issues involve complex science not directly

apprehended by public & politicians
Not only look like social issues but incorporate them
Environmental justice
Sustainable development
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

WICKED ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

INCLUDE

Climate change
Water resources management
Genetically modified agriculture
Urban planning
Waste disposal
Energy production & use
Marine ecosystem protection
Biodiversity loss

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

TAMING WICKED PROBLEMS

3 strategies along spectrum from reductionist to holistic (Roberts)
Hierarchical simplify issues & apply routines
Competitive use expertise to control resources
Egalitarian open the problem to more stakeholders
Each reflects a coherent organizational world view

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

CONTESTED CHARACTERIZATION
High

Wicked - Conflicting
Worldviews
Decision
Stakes

Complex - Clinical
Consultancy
Tame Applied
Science

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

Low

Uncertainty/ignorance

High

SEARCH FOR TRANSCENDENT AUTHORITY

Sees conflicting values as a problem for policy

Demand for science-based or evidence-based policy
Attachment to idea that science determines policy
More research is always needed
Problems expand to incorporate more technical disciplines
But a surfeit of science is indeterminate (US NAPAP)
Alternative is to make a virtue of necessity

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

LIMITS TO TAMING STRATEGIES

None provides solutions. At best each domesticates the

problem or tames the growl (Churchman)
Domestication operates in at least two modes
Delay - establish a research programme (USGCRP)
Goal displacement integrated agency response (CBP)

JamesMartinInstitute
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civilization

A SOLUTION SPACE
Hierarchical

Solution space

JamesMartinInstitute
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Competitive

Egalitarian

CLIMATE CHANGE AS A WICKED PROBLEM

UN FCCC objective is to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system
No agreement on meaning of dangerous or interference
Based on hierarchical model of ozone regime (simple problem)
Seeks agreement among 195 signatories
Potentially explosive growth in emissions from China & India
Kyoto protocol divisive - embraced by Europe but rejected by
USA & Australia
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

CLIMATE CHANGE: THE VIEW FROM

EUROPE
70-90% of UK population sees climate as a significant problem
70-90% sees the government as primarily responsible for action
3 decades of the European project (climate as a handy external
threat to all)
Margaret Thatcher as Green Goddess
Prevalence of precautionary principle (avoid disaster)
Faith in behavioural change

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

CLIMATE CHANGE: THE US VIEW

60% sees climate as a significant problem

Only 40% looks to the Federal government to lead response
3 decades of decentralization
George Bush Sr & the Whitehouse effect highlighted
(misrepresented) disagreement
Prevalence of proportional principle (benefits and costs)
Faith in technological change

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

PROFLIGACY: AN EGALITARIAN STORY

Consumption is the underlying problem
Environmental degradation is symptomatic of wider malaise
Loss of harmony with nature & each other in pursuit of profit &
growth
Nature is fragile & the economy is forgiving
Heroes are outspoken climate scientists & activists
Villains are greedy corporations
Problem is urgent time is compressed
Solution is behavioural, requiring precaution & frugality
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

THE CRIES OF THE CORALS (LEFALE)

Who cares about coral reefs? I often heard in the corridors of the UN
buildings. I care. I listen to the cries of millions of polyps that make up
the corals. Why? Because there is more at stake for us all than just the
death of polyps and corals.
What is causing corals to die lies at the core of the way we humans
live.Dead corals are the victims of injusticesof greed, of
selfishness.It is an act of genocide.
The coral polyps own world mirrors the human experience the cries
for freedom from foreign debt, poverty, starvation, the cries to change
lifestyles, not the climate, the cries to stop burning fossil fuels! To
ignore the death of coral reefs is, I believe, to ignore the cries of many
of the worlds people.
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

PLANNING: A HIERARCHICAL STORY

Lack of planning & weak global governance is the underlying
problem
Both the global commons & the global economy require
monitoring and managing within limits
Heroes are those scientists, civil servants, NGO
representatives, & enlightened politicians building management
structures for the global commons
Villains are complacent governments who wont sign up (US &
Australia)
Long-term view Rome wasnt built in a day
Solution is diplomatic & regulatory
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

A NEW INSTITUTIONAL ORDER (UN HDR)

The challenge is to find the rules and institutions for stronger
governance to preserve the advantages of global competition, but
also to provide enough space for human, community and
environmental resources.
Some of the key elements of an improved international architecture:
- A stronger and more coherent UN systemA global central bankA world
investment trustA world environment agency.

A Life Observatory should be established to systematically monitor

major ecosystems. Long-term planning should factor-in projected
changes in climate and changes to specific ecosystems.
Intergovernmental processes tend to be difficult to organize and slow to
execute, but they are the only realistic way to address cross-border
pollution and ecosystem degradation.
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

PROBLEM WHAT PROBLEM? A

COMPETITIVE STORY
Problem is insufficient scepticism science is uncertain &
technological progress rapid
The economy is fragile & nature is forgiving
Heroes are technological innovators & venture capitalists
Villains are panic-prone environmentalists & planners trying to
pick winners
Short term focus other issues are more pressing (Lomborg)
Solution, if there is a climate problem, will be to allow market
forces to work
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

HANDS OFF THE MARKET (BATE)

On the whole societys problems and challenges are best dealt with by
people and companies interacting with each other freely and without
interference from the state. We do not know whether the world is
definitively warming. If the world is warming, we do not know what is
causing the change man or nature. We do not know whether a
warmer world would be a good or a bad thing.Until the science of
climate change is better understood, no government action should be
undertaken beyond elimination of subsidies and other distortions of the
market.

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

ALL THREE STORIES

Are elegant
Are internally consistent and logically argued
Are irreducible to one another
Give plausible but conflicting accounts
Define what sort of evidence is legitimate and credible
Are immune to falsification by appeals to scientific facts
Combine to create a wicked problem

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

THE GOOD NEWS

Individually each story is only a partial vision, but collectively
each fills in a perspective on the problem that the others cannot
entertain none is entirely right, all are partially wrong
Policies based on only one or two of these visions will fail to
grapple with its wickedness
Together, they offer a dynamic plural, argumentative system of
policy definition
Omitting any one voice also leads to loss of legitimacy and
public trust
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

THE BAD NEWS

Climate regime is overwhelmingly based in the hierarchical story
Focuses overwhelmingly on emissions reductions over impacts
Assumes policies will be expensive - therefore requiring
monitoring & compliance
Regime represents 14 years of negotiation
Has minimal goals that will not make a difference
Is rejected by major players (USA & Australia)
Kyoto has been represented as the only game in town What
would be a viable alternative?
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

CLUMSY SOLUTIONS (SHAPIRO)

Looked at problem of selecting judges (1988)
Society & individuals are committed to conflicting values (rule-of
law & democracy)
Recognized importance of essential contestation
Where you stand depends on where you sit: What you see
depends on where you stand
Need to avoid alienation of significant constituencies
Importance of maintaining a set of values over time
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

A CLUMSY CLIMATE STRATEGY

Increase initial focus on adaptation emissions reduction is
somebody elses problem (Europe) or just too costly (US)
Deal with issues at lowest possible level of decision making
nations, provinces, cities
Focus emissions reduction efforts on smallest number of players
fewer than 10 really matter
Reverse global collapse of energy R&D funding again 10
countries fund 95% of R&D
Focus on processes rather than targets & timetables
Consider benefits of international competition as well as
cooperation and coercion
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF CLUMSY

SOLUTIONS
Observe law of minimum requisite variety
Clumsiness is not reducible to public participation

All voices heard & responded to

Are emergent & often informal

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

CHALLENGES FOR CLUMSY APPROACHES

Media & voters expect policy makers to fix problems
Policy makers demand scientific bottom lines for decision
making, even though they dont use them
Scientists are committed to improving knowledge, so hold out
unrealistic expectations hopes of policymakers
The hammer problem
Success of rational choice for solving simple and complex
problems exacerbates expectations
Claims that there are no alternatives to rational choice tools
JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

THE CLUMSY IMPERATIVE

Democracy is not a design problem: It is a challenge to the
imagination (VISVANATHAN)
Embracing clumsiness moves us from techniques for selecting
among alternatives towards new skills for creating imaginative
solutions

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

Marco Verweij & Michael Thompson (eds)

JamesMartinInstitute
for science and
civilization

Palgrave, London, September 2006