Professional Documents
Culture Documents
February 8, 2011
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Proposing Explanations
Once a research question has been specified, the next step is
to propose an explanation.
Proposing an explanation involves identifying other
phenomena that we think will help us account for the object
of our research and then specifying how and why these two
(or more) phenomena are related
Example
Research question: Why are divorce rates low in some
countries than others?
Look at cross-national data on divorce rates:
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/4/19/40321815.pdf
Proposing an explanation: Identify a phenomenon that you
think will help explain the variations in divorce rates across
countries
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Proposing Explanations
Variables:
Independent variables the measurements of the phenomena
that are thought to influence, affect, or cause divorce rates
Dependent variables to be caused, to depend on, or to be a
function of an independent variable
Intervening variables a variable that occurs closer in time to
the dependent variable and is itself affected by other
independent variables
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3
Sense of
Civic Duty
Q
s
Q
Formal
Education
IndependentQ
Variable
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
s
Q
Intervening
3
Variables
Knowledge of
Candidates
Issue Positions
Time
Voter
Turnout
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Intervening
Variables
3
Sense of
Civic Duty
Dependent
Variable
Q
Q
Q
Q
s
Q
Formal
Education
Voter
Turnout
Q
3
Q
Q
Q
s
Q
Knowledge of
Candidates
Issue Positions
Time
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Generality
A hypothesis should explain a general phenomenon rather
than one particular occurrence of the phenomenon.
Explanation: People tend to adopt political viewpoints similar
to those of their parents.
Hypothesis 1: Joe is liberal because his mother is one too
Hypothesis 2: People tend to be liberal if their parents are
liberal, while people tend to be conservative if their parents
are conservative.
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Positive Relationship
Negative Relationship
High
High
Income
Q
Q
Q
Tolerance
Q
Q
Low
Low
Low
High
Education
Low
High
Age
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Decrease
Same
Increase
Total
Poor
60%
30
10
100
Middle Rich
40
20
40
50
20
30
100
100
N=600
Total
40
40
20
100
Decrease
Same
Increase
Total
Poor
20%
50
30
100
Middle Rich
40
60
40
30
20
10
100
100
N=600
Total
40
40
20
100
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% College Graduates
% Voter Turnout
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Ecological Inference
Children
Hypothesis to be Tested
# of subsidized lunches
Schools
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Ecological fallacy
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Ecological Fallacy
Ethnicity
For Male
Candidate
For Female
Candidate
District 1
African Americans
Italian Americans
Others
Total
50
20
30
100
33
67
District 2
African Americans
Italian Americans
Others
Total
40
50
10
100
47
53
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Ecological Fallacy
Ethnicity
For Male
Candidate
For Female
Candidate
District 1
African Americans
Italian Americans
Others
Total
50
20
30
100
25
2
6
33
25
18
24
67
District 2
African Americans
Italian Americans
Others
Total
40
50
10
100
24
20
3
47
16
30
7
53
Voting of Individuals
African Americans
Italian Americans
Others
Total
90
70
40
200
49 (54.4)
22 (31.4)
9
80
41 (45.6)
48 (68.6)
31
120
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Defining Concepts
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Defining Concepts
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