2015-01-16 Oil Report

16 January 2015
HIGHLIGHTS
ThepriceofoilcontinuedtocollapseintoJanuaryasrisingsupplies
collided with weak demand growth and OPEC maintained its
commitmenttonotcutproduction.Brentcrudefutureslasttradedat
$48.40/bbl,nearasixyearlow.NYMEXWTIwasat$47.75/bbl.
Macroeconomic weakness continues to restrain global oil demand

growth, with 4Q14 deliveries estimated just 0.6mb/d above year
earlierlevels.Despitelowerprices,demandgrowthisonlyforecastto
accelerateto0.9mb/din2015,unchangedsincelastmonthsReport.
Theoilselloffhascutexpectationsof2015nonOPECsupplygrowth
by 350kb/d since last month, to 950 kb/d. Effects on North
American supply are so far limited to 95kb/d and 80kb/d to the
CanadianandUSforecasts,respectively.ProjectionsforColombiaare
cutby175kb/dandafurther30kb/dforRussia.
OPEC output rose by 80 kb/d in December to 30.48 mb/d, as Iraqi

supply surged to 35year highs, offsetting deeper losses in Libya.
Downward revisions to the nonOPEC supply outlook raise the call
on OPEC for 2H15 to an average 29.8 mb/d just shy of OPECs
officialtargetof30mb/d.
Global refinery crude throughputs surged to a new record high of

78.9mb/d in December, lifting the 4Q14 estimate to 78.2mb/d.
Throughputsareforecasthowevertoeaseseasonallyto77.8mb/din
1Q15amidbrimmingproductinventories,weakeningmargins,lower
demandandincreasedrefinerymaintenance.
OECD commercial inventories drew less than usual in November,

falling by 8.7 mb to 2 697 mb. As OECD refiners hiked runs, crude
stocksdrewwhileproductstocksincreased.Preliminarydataindicatea
12.5mbbuildinDecember,whichwouldseestocksrisetotheirwidest
surplusversusthefiveyearaveragesinceAugust2010.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
WHAT NOW? .................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
DEMAND ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Summary........................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Global Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5
OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Americas ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Europe ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Asia Oceania ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Non-OECD ................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
SUPPLY ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
OPEC crude oil supply ................................................................................................................................................................ 15
Iraqi production races ahead ......................................................................................................................................................... 17
Non-OPEC Overview ................................................................................................................................................................. 19
OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
North America ........................................................................................................................................................................ 20
North Sea.................................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Non-OECD ................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Latin America ........................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Former Soviet Union .............................................................................................................................................................. 23
OECD STOCKS ................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
OECD inventory position at end-November and revisions to preliminary data ............................................................... 25
Widening contango re-ignites interest in floating storage ........................................................................................................... 26
Recent OECD industry stock changes .................................................................................................................................... 27
OECD Americas ...................................................................................................................................................................... 27
OECD Europe.......................................................................................................................................................................... 28
OECD Asia Oceania ............................................................................................................................................................... 29
Recent developments in Singapore and China stocks .......................................................................................................... 29
PRICES ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 32
Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Market overview .......................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Financial markets .......................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Market activity ......................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Financial regulation.................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Spot crude oil prices.................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Spot product prices ..................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Freight ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 39
REFINING ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Global refinery overview ............................................................................................................................................................ 40
OECD refinery throughput ........................................................................................................................................................ 43
Non-OECD refinery throughput .............................................................................................................................................. 46
TABLES................................................................................................................................................................................................ 49
M ARKET O VERVIEW
I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT
WHAT NOW?
Anothermonth,anothermilestone.BrentandWTIfuturespricescrashedtonearsixyearlowsinearly
January,beforerecoupingsomelossesatmidmonth.Atthetimeofwriting,bothBrentandWTIwere
tradingaround$48/bbl,downby$16/bbland$12/bbl,respectively,sincelastmonthsReport,andsome
60% below their June highs. While supply and demand forecasts have long pointed at a market
imbalance and associated stock builds in 2H14 and beyond, few would have expected such a sudden
price collapse. Todays market participants are not ruling out further declines, however, despite the
recent rebound. How low the markets floor will be is anybodys guess. But the selloff is having an
impact.Apricerecoverybarringanymajordisruptionmaynotbeimminent,butsignsaremounting
thatthetidewillturn.
Themosttangiblepriceeffectsareonthesupplyfront. mb/d Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q15 mb/d
Upstreamspendingplanshavebeenthefirstcasualtyof 96
2.5
2.0
the markets rout.Companieshavebeentakingan axe 94
1.5
totheirbudgets,postponingorcancellingnewprojects,
1.0
92
while trying to squeeze the most out of producing
0.5
0.0
fields. For the most part the supply effects will not be 90
-0.5
felt immediately, but further down the road, through 88
-1.0
project delays and faster decline rates. Nevertheless, 86
-1.5
-2.0
expectationsofnonOPECsupplygrowthfor2015have
*OPECproductionassumed at30mb/dthroughforecastperiod
-2.5
84
already been downgraded, with growth for the year
1Q09
3Q10
1Q12
3Q13
1Q15
adjusted downwards by 350 kb/d since last months
Impl. stock ch.&misc (RHS)
Demand
Supply*
Report and more steeply so for 2H15. Colombia and
Canadaleadthedeclines.ExpectationsofUSlight,tightoilproductiongrowthhavealsobeenrevisited,
butsofarthecutsdonotexceed80kb/dcomparedwithouralreadyconservativepreviousestimates,as
manyproducersappeartobewellhedgedagainstshorttermpricedrops.
Signsofademandresponseremainmoreelusive.WithafewnotableexceptionssuchastheUS,lower
pricesdonotappeartobestimulatingdemandjustyet.Thatisbecausetheusualbenefitsoflowerprices
increased household disposable income, reduced industry input costs have been largely offset by
weakunderlyingeconomicconditions,whichhavethemselvesbeenamajorreasonforthepricedropin
thefirstplace.Otherfactors,includingweakcurrenciesinconsumereconomies,subsidycuts,consumer
taxhikes,lowerspendinginproducercountriesandmountingdeflationaryconcerns,havekeptdemand
growthincheckthusfar.Demandgrowthisstillforecasttopickupsomewhatthisyearfromlast,butis
notexpectedtoexceed900kb/d,unchangedsincelastmonth.
Thenetresultofthesechangesisthatimpliedstockbuildsaresettocontinuethroughthefirsthalfof
this year, albeit at a marginally lower rate than previously expected. Downward pressures from
stockpiling continue, as reflected in the futures curves steeper contango structure when prompt
barrelstradeatdiscounttolateronesandsignsofgrowingmarketinterestinfloatingstorage.Buta
rebalancing may begin to occur in the second half of the year, when the call on OPEC and stock
changes is now forecast to rebound to an average 29.8 mb/d, just a shade below the groups long
standingproductiontarget.For2015asawhole,thecallhasbeenrevisedupwardsby300kb/dsince
last months Report. Longerterm effects will be discussed in the upcoming MediumTerm Oil Market
Report,tobereleasedon10February.
Rebalancingofthemarketdoesnotequatetoareturntothestatusquoante.Itisclearthatthemarket
isundergoingahistoricshift.OPECsembraceofmarketforceslastNovemberisagamechanger.Sois
the US light, tight oil revolution. Thanks to its short leadtime and low upfront capital costs, LTO may
prove quicker to ramp up production than conventional supply. Oils place in the global energy mix is
alsotransforming.Whiletheremightbelightattheendofthetunnelforproducersasfaraspricesare
concerned, the next few years could nevertheless prove a period of reckoning for a market and an
industrythat,throughthecourseoftheir150yearhistory,havehadtoperiodicallyreinventthemselves.
16J ANUARY 2015
D EMAND
DEMAND
Summary
Totalglobal oilproduct demand averaged92.4mb/din2014,againof620kb/d(or0.7%) on the
yearearlier.ThismarkedafiveyearlowforgrowthassharpdeclinesinOECDEuropeandOECDAsia
Oceania coincided with notable slowdowns in China, the FSU and Latin America. Global growth is
forecast to modestly accelerate in 2015, to 910kb/d (or +1.0%), as macroeconomic momentum is
tentativelyforecasttopickup.
Steep drops in crude prices are only providing a limited boost to demand, as the price decline is
itselfatleastpartlydemanddriven.TheUSisanotableexception.
OECD demand growth shows diverging trends, with 4Q14 North American demand bucking the
yearonyear(yoy)contractionsshowninEuropeandAsia.Aftercontractinginyoytermsin3Q14,
US oil product demand swung back into growth of 0.3mb/d in 4Q14, supported by strong gains in
transport fuel demand. The forecast for 2015, however, remains somewhat muted, as the 4Q14
USuptickisexpectedtoremainshortlivedandUSpriceeffectsareexpectedtobeoffsetbyefficiency
gainsin2H15.
Global Oil Demand (2013-2015)

(millio n barrels per day)
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2013
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.1
Americas
30.2
30.5
31.1
31.1
30.7
30.4
30.4
31.1
31.5
30.9
30.7
30.8
31.4
31.5
31.1
Asia/Pacific
30.7
29.8
29.8
30.9
30.3
31.2
30.2
29.9
31.2
30.6
31.6
30.6
30.7
31.8
31.2
Europe
13.8
14.5
14.7
14.3
14.3
13.7
14.1
14.6
14.0
14.1
13.6
14.0
14.4
14.1
14.0
FSU
4.5
4.6
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.8
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.7
4.6
Middle East
7.5
7.9
8.4
7.7
7.9
7.8
8.2
8.6
7.8
8.1
8.0
8.4
8.8
8.2
8.3
90.6
91.3
92.6
92.8
91.8
91.7
91.6
93.0
93.4
92.4
92.5
92.5
94.0
94.4
93.3
Annual Chg (%)
1.2
1.7
1.7
0.9
1.4
1.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Annual Chg (mb/d)
1.1
1.5
1.5
0.9
1.3
1.1
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
-0.01
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.04
0.02
-0.05 -0.03
0.03
Africa
World
Changes from last OMR (mb/d)
0.05 -0.03 -0.09 -0.02
0.02 -0.01
Global Overview
Preliminary data suggest that, with the notable exception of the US, weak global demand conditions
continue to act as a depressant on prices, as opposed to low prices stimulating additional demand.
Global oil demand growth remained at a relatively
Global y-on-y absolute growth
suppressed 585kb/d yoy in 4Q14. There are several mb/d
Total products growth rate
4%
4
reasonswhylowercrudeoilpricessofarseemtohavefailed
3%
3
tostimulatedemand.Thoseincludeheighteneddeflationary
2%
2
risksinbothEuropeandJapan;adverserevenueimpactson
1%
1
netoilexporters; a global trend towards reductions in
0%
0
-1%
-1
energy price subsidies and/or increases in oil consumption
-2%
-2
taxes; and the heavy falls experienced by many currencies,
-3%
-3
versus the USdollar, negating the impact of lower crude
-4%
-4
prices in domestic currency terms. Reflecting the
1Q2008 1Q2010 1Q2012 1Q2014
LPG
Naphtha
Gasoline
downwardly revised macroeconomic backdrop, midJanuary
JetKero
Diesel
RFO
Other
Total (RHS)
saw the World Bank revise down its 2015 global economic
growth forecasts to 3.0%, versus 3.4% in June 2014, still an acceleration on 2014 (+2.6%) but notably
lessso than previously assumed. The International Monetary Fund releases its own global
macroeconomicupdateon20January2015.
16J ANUARY 2015
D EMAND
TheUShasbeenthenotableexceptiontothisweakdemandtrendinrecentmonths.Havinggenerally
stagnated, mid2014, US oil demand growth regained
momentumin4Q14,whenitincreasedby1.6%ontheyear mb/d US50: Total Products Demand
earlier,itssharpestgaininayear.Demandgrowth,specific
to the US, benefited from a combination of strong 19.5
underlying economic expansion and relatively low
consumption taxes (compared to other OECD members), 19.0
which allows more of the crude oil price decline to be
passedontoconsumers.Thelackofanycurrencyeffects,as
18.5
oilpricesaredollardenominated,furthercompoundedthe
moredirectfeedthroughcomparedwithothereconomies.
Estimates of US demand have been revised upwards 18.0JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN
repeatedly since the beginning of the oil price drop.
2012
2013
2014
Compared to the Report dated 11 July 2014, roughly
0.2mb/dhasbeenaddedtotheUS3Q14qoqgrowthestimateand0.3mb/dtothatfor4Q14.
Overall, the global estimate of 4Q14 demand has been revised down by 90kb/d since last months
Report, to 93.4mb/d, as multiple downside revisions for November more than offset the upward
adjustmentsforOctober.ThemostsignificantNovembercutswerethoseappliedtoFrance(105kb/d),
Brazil (100kb/d), Mexico (100kb/d), Japan (95kb/d), Korea (80kb/d) and Germany (50kb/d).
AsmallnumberofNovemberupgradeshavebeenapplied,mostnotablytotheUS(+305kb/d)andChina
(+80kb/d). Octobers upside bias adjustments were led by higher estimates of US (+340kb/d) and
Chinese(+90kb/d)deliveries,withalargenumberofdownsideadjustmentsalsoapplied,includingItaly
(60kb/d),theNetherlands(45kb/d),Korea(35kb/d)andChineseTaipei(35kb/d).
OECD
Recent data suggest that OECD demand has been falling by around 1% yoy through 2H14, as sharp
declines in both powersector and petrochemical usage offset modest gains in the transport sector.
Japan led the powersectors downside, while heightened US cracker maintenance played a big role
undermining 2H14 petrochemical demand. In contrast, the US provided the majority of the offsetting
upsidesupportinOECDtransportdemandin2H14.
mb/d
mb/d
OECD: Total Products Demand
OECD: Motor Gasoline Demand
15.0
48.0
47.0
14.0
46.0
45.0
44.0
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
2014
JUL
OCT
13.0
JAN
JAN
2013
5-year avg
APR
Range 09-13
2014
JUL
OCT
JAN
2013
5-year avg
Americas
Higherthananticipated4Q14USoilproductdemandledanupwardrevisiontothedemandestimatefor
theOECDAmericas,nowestimatedat24.6mb/d,250kb/dhigherthaninlastmonthsReport.The4Q14
US estimate was raised by 280kb/d due to a steep upward revision to the estimate for October in
monthlyUSdataversusthepreliminaryestimatebasedonweeklydataforthatmonth.At19.6mb/din
16J ANUARY 2015
D EMAND
October, the official US oil product demand estimate was raised by about 340kb/d, compared to last
months Report, equating to an absolute gain in October of 285kb/d (or 1.5%) on the year earlier
supportedbystronggrowthinroadtransportfuels.
mb/d
mb/d
OECD Americas: Total Products

Demand
US50: Total Products Demand
19.5
24.5
19.0
24.0
18.5
23.5
23.0
JAN
APR
2011
JUL
2012
OCT
18.0
JAN
JAN
2013
2014
APR
JUL
Range 09-13
2014
OCT
JAN
2013
5-year avg
Octobers strong gains in US transport fuel demand were underpinned by a combination of additional
vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and, where possible (for example in multicar families), switching to less
efficientvehiclechoices.Thelatestsportsutilityvehicle(SUV,or4x4)salesdatashowagainofover10%
yoy in 4Q14, while the US Department of Transports Federal Highway Administration reported an
increase of 2.6% yoy in US VMT in October to 264.2billion. This supported growth of approximately
2.7%yoyinUSgasolineandroughly5%yoyforgasoil/diesel,thelattergainingadditionaltractionon
heightened agricultural and industrial demand (the US Federal Reserve reporting industrial production
growthof4%yoyinOctober).
mb/d
mb/d
US50: Motor Gasoline Demand
9.2
4.3
9.0
4.1
8.8
US50: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
3.9
8.6
3.7
8.4
3.5
8.2
8.0
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
2014
JUL
OCT
3.3
JAN
JAN
2013
5-year avg
APR
Range 09-13
2014
JUL
OCT
JAN
2013
5-year avg
Accelerating industrial activity in November (+5.2% yoy) contributed towards the upwardly revised
(+305kb/d)Novemberdemandestimate,withadditionalUSdistillatedemandonceagainoneofthekey
causes. Other significant growth contributing fuels in November included gasoline and jet/kerosene.
Having risen by around 1% yoy in November, December is likely to see a further acceleration, as
additional price declines provide some extra stimulus and the severe winter freeze of December 2013
wasnotrepeated.
FuelswitchingawayfromoilintheMexicanpowersector,toalternativessuchashydrocontinuestoput
the overall Mexican demand trend under pressure, as do falling gasoline deliveries. Total oil product
demand slipped by 1.5% yoy in November, to 1.9mb/d, the ninth monthly decline in 2014. Gasoline
deliveriesfellby3.8%yoyinNovember,to730kb/d,theirgreatestdeclineinaboutayear.Fortheyear
asawhole,demandisestimatedtohavecontractedby3.8%(3.2%previously),toanaverage2.0mb/d,
withparticularlysteepdeclinesinresidualfueloilandgasolinedemand.
16J ANUARY 2015
D EMAND
mb/d
kb/d
850
Mexico: Total Products Demand
Mexico: Motor Gasoline Demand
2.20
800
2.10
2.00
750
1.90
1.80
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
Range 09-13
2014
700
JAN
JAN
2013
5-year avg
APR
JUL
OCT
Range 09-13
2014
JAN
2013
5-year avg
OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - November 2014

Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
RFO
mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa
OECD Am ericas*
Other
Total Products
mb/d
% pa
mb/d % pa
10.73
0.9
1.67
0.4
4.74
5.2
0.67
-0.2
0.63
2.2
6.28
-3.35
24.72
0.5
9.04
1.3
1.44
0.6
3.85
6.1
0.26
0.2
0.34
-4.8
4.74
-3.03
19.67
0.9
-0.6
US50
Canada
0.83
1.0
0.11
-4.8
0.30
3.3
0.34
-1.6
0.06
37.2
0.86
-4.24
2.49
Mexico
0.73
-3.8
0.06
5.7
0.38
1.1
0.05
10.1
0.12
19.4
0.58
-5.01
1.91
-1.5
1.88
-1.0
1.19
-1.1
4.51
0.1
1.47
-13.5
0.87
-8.1
3.25
-4.96
13.17
-3.7
OECD Europe
Germany
0.43
3.4
0.17
-7.9
0.76
1.5
0.32
-22.3
0.15
19.4
0.53
-8.65
2.36
-4.4
United Kingdom
0.31
-1.6
0.34
-2.8
0.50
-2.0
0.12
-7.8
0.02
-35.4
0.24
3.68
1.52
-2.4
France
0.15
-2.6
0.14
-3.3
0.64
-3.4
0.22
-19.6
0.05
-26.1
0.34
-2.89
1.55
-6.8
Italy
0.20
-4.7
0.09
-1.6
0.43
-0.6
0.09
-21.7
0.06
-20.4
0.33
-8.70
1.19
-6.6
Spain
0.10
-3.4
0.10
-0.1
0.41
-1.5
0.17
-9.5
0.15
-7.8
0.25
-4.06
1.19
-4.2
1.57
-2.8
0.97
-5.2
1.29
-2.1
0.53
-6.3
0.62
-18.8
3.25
-7.20
8.22
-6.3
0.92
-5.0
0.59
-8.8
0.42
-7.2
0.39
-8.8
0.35
-21.4
1.67
-11.07
4.33
-9.9
Korea
0.19
-2.3
0.19
1.1
0.33
0.5
0.12
1.6
0.21
-16.3
1.32
-3.21
2.37
-3.4
Australia
OECD Total
0.34
14.17
0.6
0.2
0.14
3.82
0.5
-1.5
0.44
10.54
0.9
2.0
0.00
2.68
0.0
-9.1
0.03
2.12
-9.5
-8.9
0.18
12.78
1.40
-4.76
1.13
46.12
0.5
-2.0
OECD Asia & Oceania

Japan
* Including US territo ries
Europe
The 4Q14 European demand estimate has been revised downwards by 225kb/d from last months
Report, to 13.3mb/d, as economic growth remained tepid while relatively mild earlywinter weather
conditions were seen across the continent. Notable mb/d OECD Europe: Total Products
November curtailments included France (105kb/d) and
Demand
15.0
Germany (50kb/d), while large October adjustments for
Italy (60kb/d) and the Netherlands (45kb/d) further 14.5
dampened the 4Q14 estimate. This revised 4Q14 European 14.0
demand projection was 2.1% down on the year earlier, as
Markits composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) 13.5
reporteditsworstperformanceinoverayear.
13.0
12.5
Preliminary estimates of French November demand
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN
depictedasharp6.8%yoycontraction,to1.5mb/d.Amid
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014 relative strengthening in French demand appeared to
abateinNovember,withparticularlysharpdownsidepressurefeltongasoil(8.1%yoy).Thelatestdata
reflecttheprotractedsofteningineconomicsentiment,withNovembersManufacturingPMIfallingtoa
threemonth low, of 48.4 according to Markit, significantly below the key 50 expansionary threshold,
whileotherindicatorssuchasINSEEsconsumer/businessconfidenceindicatorsconfirmthispessimism.
16J ANUARY 2015
mb/d
D EMAND
kb/d
France: Total Products Demand
France: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
2.0
1100
1.9
1000
1.8
1.7
900
1.6
1.5
JAN
APR
JUL
Range 09-13
2014
OCT
800
JAN
JAN
2013
5-year avg
APR
JUL
Range 09-13
2014
OCT
JAN
2013
5-year avg
At 895kb/d in October, the Dutch demand estimate offered its sharpest yoy decline in nearly four
years (8.6%) following Shells closure of its Moerdijk cracker. The discovery of a leak at the
800000tonneperyearcrackerforceditsclosure,accordinglyandsharplycurbingoildemandfromthe
petrochemicalsector.Theforecastfor2015alsohadtobecurtailed,atleastthrough1Q15,onreports
thatthefacilitywillnotresumeoperationsuntil1H15.
Netherlands: Total Products Demand
kb/d
kb/d
290
1,050
Netherlands: Naphtha Demand
240
1,000
190
950
140
900
90
850
40
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
2014
JUL
OCT
JAN
2013
5-year avg
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
2014
JUL
OCT
JAN
2013
5-year avg
Asia Oceania
Heavy downside revisions, to both the Japanese and Korean 4Q14 demand estimates, resulted in
approximately 115kb/d being removed from 4Q14 OECD Asia Oceania demand, which now averages
8.2mb/d. Within the overall 4.3% yoy OECD Asia Oceania decline were particularly steep drops in
residualfueloilandotherproducts,respectivelydownby15.8%and19.0%yoyin4Q14.
mb/d
kb/d
Japan: Total Products Demand
5.4
1100
5.1
1050
4.9
1000
4.6
950
4.4
900
4.1
850
3.9
3.6
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
2014
16J ANUARY 2015
Japan: Motor Gasoline Demand
JUL
OCT
800
JAN
JAN
2013
5-year avg
APR
Range 09-13
2014
JUL
OCT
2013
5-year avg
JAN
D EMAND
SignsofadeteriorationinJapanseconomicoutlookechoedinrecentoildemanddata.Sharplycurtailed
transport fuel demand played a key role, as did continued heavy declines in powersector oil use.
Preliminary estimates of November oil deliveries show a near 10% yoy contraction, to 4.3mb/d, as
readingsofconsumerconfidencefellforafourthconsecutivemonthandindustrialproductionoffered
anabsolute decline.The MinistryofEconomyTradeandIndustryreporteda 3.8%yoy contractionin
totalJapaneseindustrialoutputinNovember,whilethesamemonthsawtheCabinetOfficesconsumer
confidenceindexfalltoaheavilypessimistic37.7,itsweakestreadingsinceApril2014.
The latest Korean oil demand data estimate, at 2.4mb/d in November, was down heavily on the year
earlier (3.4%). Steep declines in demand for LPG, gasoline and residual fuel oil led earlier demand
estimates for the month to be revised downwards. Relatively mild earlywinter weather, coupled with
lowLNGprices,keptbothresidualfueloilandLPGdeliveriesbelowyearearlierlevels.Furtherdenting
the overall Korean demand trend were reports, from the Bank of Korea, that consumer confidence
slippedtoaoneyearlow.Fortheyearasawhole,weestimatethatKoreaconsumedroughly2.3mb/d
ofoilproductsin2014,0.9%upontheyear.
Korea: Total Products Demand
kb/d
kb/d
2,500
Korea: LPG Demand
300
2,400
280
2,300
260
2,200
240
2,100
220
2,000
200
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
2014
JUL
OCT
JAN
2013
5-year avg
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
2014
JUL
OCT
JAN
2013
5-year avg
Non-OECD
Preliminary data suggest that nonOECD demand growth fell to +2% yoy in 4Q14, its lowest level in
roughly one year. Within the total 4Q14 nonOECD demand estimate of 47.2mb/d, the most sluggish
growthpredictablyoccurredinthecrisishiteconomiesoftheFSU(whichwasflatonayoybasis)and
nonOECD Europe (+1.1%), while sharply lower commodity prices reduced both the income and oil
demandgrowthestimatesforLatinAmerica(+1.3%)andtheMiddleEast(+1.2%).
Non-OECD: Demand by Product

(tho usand barrels per day)
A nnua l C hg ( k b/ d)
D e m a nd
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
3Q14
4Q14
3Q14
LPG & Ethane
5,132
5,132
5,185
165
137
3.3
2.7
Naphtha
3,086
3,101
3,090
69
-55
2.3
-1.8
Motor Gasoline
9,674
9,783
9,879
311
333
3.3
3.5
Jet Fuel & Kerosene
2,916
3,004
2,994
131
67
4.6
2.3
Gas/Diesel Oil
4Q14
14,242
14,164
14,325
91
171
0.6
1.2
Residual Fuel Oil
5,448
5,472
5,447
145
67
2.7
1.2
Other Products
6,371
6,621
6,286
177
217
2.7
3.6
46,868
47,278
47,205
1,089
937
2.4
2.0
Total Products
10
A nnua l C hg ( %)
16J ANUARY 2015
D EMAND
China
PreliminaryestimatesofNovemberChinesedemandsuggestariseof3%ontheyearto10.7mb/d,as
reportsofproductdestockingcoincidewithheadyrefinerythroughputnumbers(seeRefining).Product
stocksfellbyaround110kb/dyoyinNovember,accordingtothelatestdatafromChinaOil,Gasand
Petrochemicals,withaparticularlynotablegasoildeclinereported.
kb/d
kb/d
China: Total Products Demand
China: Motor Gasoline Demand
2,400
10,400
1,900
9,400
8,400
1,400
7,400
6,400
900
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN
Range 09-13
2013
Range 09-13
2013
2014
5-year avg
2014
5-year avg
Gasoline led the still relatively moderate pace of Chinese demand growth reported in November, with
implieddemandforthefuelsurgingbynearly9%ontheyearearlierto2.3mb/d,offsettingweakfueloil
use. Ongoing macroeconomic worries, decelerating car sales and airqualitycontrol measures that
restricted traffic and sharply reduced industrial activity in and around Beijing during the Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit restrained 4Q14 demand. The China Association of Automobile
Manufacturersreported1.8millionpassengercarsalesinNovember,up4.7%yoy,theweakestpaceof
growth in roughly oneandahalf years. This weakening in car sales data, along with increased
consumptiontaxesonoilproducts(whichdepriveChineseconsumersfromthefullbenefitoftherecent
declinesincrudeprices)andamoresubduedmacroeconomicoutlook,willcombinetokeeptheoverall
Chinesegrowthforecastsuppressedataround2.5%in2015.
China: Demand by Product

D e m a nd
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2013
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
790
843
901
54
58
6.8
6.9
Naphtha
1,126
1,174
1,195
48
21
4.3
1.8
Motor Gasoline
2,062
2,213
2,345
151
132
7.3
6.0
461
516
525
55
11.9
1.8
3,370
3,350
3,372
-20
22
-0.6
0.7
LPG & Ethane
Jet Fuel & Kerosene

Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
425
336
327
-89
-9
-21.0
-2.7
1,867
1,943
1,967
76
24
4.1
1.3
10,101
10,374
10,632
274
258
2.7
2.5
Other Non-OECD
EdgingmodestlydowninNovember,to3.2mb/d,Brazilianoilproductdemandposteditsweakestyoy
performance in just over two years. Sharp declines in gasoil/diesel led Novembers drop, as recent
weaknesses in industrial activity stripped back domestic diesel demand. The Instituto Brasileiro de
Geografia e Estatistica has reported yoy declines in total industrial output for every month since
February2014.DemandestimatesforNovemberhavebeenreviseddownby100kb/dfromlastmonths
Report.Aslowerclipisnowassumedfortheyearasawhole,+3.5%to3.2mb/d,versus3.9%lastmonth.
Lower oil prices dampen the Brazilian macroeconomic outlook for 2015, resulting in a decelerating oil
demandforecast,+2.7%in2015to3.3mb/d.
16J ANUARY 2015
11
D EMAND
kb/d
kb/d
1,250
Brazil: Total Products Demand
Brazil: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
3,300
1,050
2,800
850
2,300
650
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN
Range 09-13
2013
2014
5-year avg
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN
Range 09-13
2013
2014
5-year avg
Non-OECD: Demand by Region

D e m a nd
Africa
Asia
A nnua l C hg ( %)
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
3Q14
4Q14
3Q14
4Q14
3,947
3,844
3,980
118
160
3.2
4.2
22,498
22,254
22,917
522
591
2.4
2.6
0.0
FSU
4,811
5,027
4,930
102
-1
2.1
Latin America
6,759
6,917
6,856
163
85
2.4
1.3
Middle East
8,197
8,563
7,839
168
95
2.0
1.2
Non-OECD Europe
Total Products
655
674
684
16
2.4
1.1
46,868
47,278
47,205
1,089
937
2.4
2.0
Weak demand right across the Argentinean product spectrum saw only 735kb/d of oil products
delivered in November, 55kb/d (or 6.9%) below the year earlier. Weak industrial output particularly
undermineddemandforgasoil,LPGandotherproducts.TheInstitutoNacionaldeEstadisticayCensos
reportedthatindustrialproductioncontractedby2.1%yoyinNovember,itsninthconsecutivedecline.
The estimate of Argentinean demand for 2014 as a whole has accordingly been curbed, to 765mb/d
(1.2%downon2013).Ongoingmacroeconomicconcernsarelikelytoresultinafurtherslightdecline(of
around0.7%)in2015,to760kb/d.
kb/d
kb/d
Argentina: Total Products Demand
770
260
720
240
670
220
620
Argentina: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
200
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
JUL
OCT
2013
JAN
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
JUL
OCT
JAN
2013
2014
5-year avg
2014
5-year avg
PreliminarydatashowIndianoilproductdeliveriesroseto3.9mb/dinNovember,nearly35kb/dabove
expectations,onsupportivemacroeconomicactivityandlowercrudeprices.LPG,pricesofwhichremain
subsidised in India, led the gains with growth of 14.5%, to 0.6mb/d, with notable gains in diesel and
gasolinealsooffsettingyoydeclinesinnaphthaandjet/kerosene.Overall,Indiandemandisestimated
to have averaged roughly 3.9mb/d in 2014, up 2.5% on the year. Growth is forecast to reach 3.6% in
2015,bringingaveragedemandfortheyearto4.0mb/d,supportedbyunderlyingeconomicgrowth.
12
16J ANUARY 2015
kb/d
1,600
D EMAND
kb/d
India: Gasoil/Diesel Demand
Taiwan: Total Products Demand
1,100
1,500
1,050
1,400
1,000
1,300
950
1,200
900
1,100
850
1,000
800
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
JUL
OCT
2013
JAN
JAN
APR
Range 09-13
JUL
OCT
JAN
2013
2014
5-year avg
2014
5-year avg
Atroughly1.0mb/dinOctober,theChineseTaipeidemandestimatehasbeenreviseddownby35kb/d
sincelastmonthsReportaspetrochemicaldemandcameoutbelowearlierexpectations.This,coupled
with confirmed reports that an 84kb/d cracker closed lateNovember, triggered a 20kb/d downside
adjustmentinthe4Q14ChineseTaipeidemandestimate,to1.0mb/d.Fortheyearasawhole,amodest
gainof1.6%isestimated,withparticularlystrong(near3%yoy)1H14demandgrowthoffsetbyamuch
weaker2H14.
Down 0.5% on the year earlier, the October Iranian demand estimate came out 30kb/d below the
month earlier projection, as sharply falling oil prices dented domestic coffers sufficiently to reduce oil
demand, with domestic transportation markets particularly suffering. For the year as a whole, roughly
1.8mb/dwillbedelivered,littlechangedontheyearearlier,beforepickingupverymarginallyin2015as
mildly stronger macroeconomic activity likely supports additional oil use, albeit to a much reduced
degreeonloweroilprices.
16J ANUARY 2015
13
S UPPLY
SUPPLY
Summary
Globalproductionroseby155kb/dmonthonmonth(mom)inDecemberto94.2mb/d,withnon
OPECandOPECcontributingroughlyequalshares.Totalsupplieswerearobust2.1mb/dhigherthan
ayearearlier.
Therapiddeclineinoilprice,reducedcapexandpoliticalfactorshavecutnonOPECsupplygrowth
for 2015 by about 350kb/d since the last Report. So far, the effect of lower prices on North
Americas production is marginal, with downward revisions to the US and Canada at 80kb/d and
95kb/d,respectively.OthernotablerevisionsincludeRussia(30kb/d)andColombia(175kb/d).
Adownwardrevisionof450kb/dtothe2H15nonOPECsupplyoutlookraisesthecallonOPECto
anaverage29.8mb/djustshyofOPECsofficialtargetof30mb/d.For2015asawhole,thecall
onOPECcrudeandstockchangefor2015hasbeenadjustedupby300kb/dto29.2mb/d.
NonOPEC total liquids supply is forecast to expand by 950 kb/d in 2015, following growth of
1.9mb/d in 2014. As in 2014, North America will provide most of the growth, offsetting declines
elsewhere.LatinAmericaisexpectedtocontributemeaningfulvolumes(+150kb/d),withnonOECD
Asiaalsogrowing(+50kb/d).Russiasoiloutputwillfallbyabout140kb/dyearonyear(yoy).
OPEC output rose by 80 kb/d in December to 30.48 mb/d, with a surge in Iraqi supply to 35year
highs offsetting new losses in Libya due to an escalation in armed conflict. Top producer Saudi
Arabiakeptoutputsteady.
mb/d
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
Jan 14
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
mb/d
Year-on-Year Change
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Jan 13 May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14
mb/d
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0
Jul 14
Non-OPEC
Jan 15
OPEC NGLs
Jul 15
OPEC Crude - RS
OPEC Crude
Non-OPEC
OPEC NGLs
Total Supply
All world oil supply data for December discussed in this report are IEA estimates. Estimates for OPEC
countries,Alaska,MexicoandRussiaaresupportedbypreliminaryDecembersupplydata.
Note:RandomeventspresentdownsiderisktothenonOPECproductionforecastcontainedinthisreport.These
events can include accidents, unplanned or unannounced maintenance, technical problems, labour strikes,
politicalunrest,guerrillaactivity,warsandweatherrelatedsupplylosses.Specificallowancehasbeenmadein
the forecast for scheduled maintenance in all regions and for typical seasonal supply outages (including
hurricanerelatedstoppages)inNorthAmerica.Inaddition,fromMay2011,anationallyallocated(butnotfield
specific)reliabilityadjustmenthasalsobeenappliedforthenonOPECforecasttoreflectahistoricaltendency
for unexpected events to reduce actual supply compared with the initial forecast. This totals approximately
200kb/dto400kb/dfornonOPECasawhole.
14
16J ANUARY 2015
S UPPLY
OPEC crude oil supply

OPECproductionroseto30.48mb/dinDecember,upby80kb/dfromthepreviousmonth,asacollapse
in Libyan output was offset by Iraqi oil fields that pumped at the highest rate since 1979. Libyan
productionfellby250kb/d,thebiggestmonthonmonth(mom)declineinmorethanayear,afterthe
countrysvitaloilexportterminals,whichhaduntilthenbeensparedbythefighting,cameunderattack.
Iraqturnedinanimpressivemonthwithrecordexportsfromthesouthandhighershipmentsfromthe
northfollowinganexportagreementbetweenBaghdadandtheKurdistanRegionalGovernment(KRG).
TopexporterSaudiArabiakeptflowssteady.
Sincethegroupagreedatits27Novembermeetingtomaintainitsofficial30mb/dsupplytargetdespite
oils price rout, prices have fallen by around $20/bbl prompting cashstrapped Venezuela, Iran and
Algeriatorenewcallsforoutputcuts.ButSaudiArabia,whichsteeredtheOPECdecision,andothercore
Gulfproducersarestandingfirm.SaudiArabiasoilministerAlialNaimiwasreportedassayingthatit
was not in the interest of OPEC producers to cut their production, whatever the price is. December
marked the eighth straight month with OPEC supply in excess of its official target and output was up
560kb/dyearonyear(yoy).
SloweranticipatedgrowthfromproducersoutsideofOPECinthewakeofthepricecollapsehasledtoa
300kb/d upward adjustment of the 2015 call on OPEC crude and stock change to 29.2 mb/d. A
downwardrevisionof450kb/dtothe2H15nonOPECsupplyoutlookbooststhecallonOPECfor2H15
toanaverage29.8mb/djustshortofOPECsofficialtarget.
OPECs effective spare capacity was estimated at 3.39 mb/d in December compared to 3.45mb/d in
November,withSaudiArabiaaccountingforabout80%ofthesurplus.
mb/d
OPEC Crude Oil Production
mb/d
32
32
Quarterly Call on OPEC Crude +

Stock Change
31
31
30
30
29
28
29
27
28
Jan
Mar
2011
May
2012
Jul
Sep
2013
Nov
Jan
2014
26
1Q
2Q
2013
2014
3Q
4Q
2015
Supply from Saudi Arabia held at 9.6 mb/d in December, with Riyadh determined to preserve market
share.OilMinisterNaimiwasreportedassayingthatOPECwouldnotcutproductionevenifoilfellto
$20/bbl. Saudi Crown Prince Salman, speaking on behalf of King Abdullah who is hospitalised with
pneumonia defended the Saudidriven OPEC policy, saying Riyadh would deal with the challenge of
loweroilpriceswithafirmwill.
MajorbuyersofSaudicrudeoilsaidOPECstopproducershowsnosignofholdingbacksupplytoworld
markets.AccordingtothemostrecentdatasubmittedbySaudi ArabiatotheJointOrganisationsData
Initiative(JODI),SaudicrudeexportsinOctoberroseto6.9mb/dup175kb/donSeptember.Exportsof
productsclimbedto910kb/dinOctobercomparedto790kb/dinSeptember.
The latest JODI figures showed Riyadh consumed 515 kb/d of crude for power generation in October.
During3Q14,whenpowergenerationneedsriseseasonallywithairconditioning,itburnedanaverage
770kb/d.Crudeburntypicallyfallseasonallyduringthefourthquarterandin4Q13itaveraged380kb/d.
16J ANUARY 2015
15
S UPPLY
Saudi Crude Production
mb/d
kb/d
10.50
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Implied crude burn
10.25
10.00
9.75
9.50
9.25
9.00
8.75
8.50
Jan
Mar
May
2011
Jul
2012
Sep
Nov
2013
Saudi Implied Crude Oil Direct Burn
Jan
2014
90%
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
-50%
Jan-14
% Chg vs year ago
Intermsofcrudeoilpricing,stateoilcompanySaudiAramcocontinuestoadjustmonthlyformulaprices
toremaincompetitiveinawellsuppliedmarket.InearlyJanuary,Aramcomadesharpcutstopricesfor
crudeloadinginFebruaryforEurope(seePrices).Riyadhmade moderate increasestopricesforAsian
destinations and reduced its key Arab Medium to the US price for a sixth month in a row. The
USimported825kb/dofSaudicrudeinOctober,downfrom1.6mb/dinApril.
OPEC Crude Production

O c t 2 0 14
N o v 2 0 14
D e c 2 0 14
S upply
S upply
S upply
S us t a ina ble
P ro duc t io n
C a pa c it y 1
S pa re C a pa c it y
v s D e c 2 0 14
S upply
2 0 14 C rude
O P E C S upply
S upply
2 0 14 v s 2 0 13
A lgeria
1.13
1.13
1.12
1.17
0.05
1.12
-0.03
A ngo la
1.75
1.69
1.72
1.80
0.08
1.66
-0.06
Ecuado r
0.54
0.55
0.55
0.57
0.02
0.55
0.03
Iran
2.76
2.81
2.84
2.90
0.06
2.81
0.13
Iraq
3.32
3.41
3.70
3.60
0.00
3.33
0.25
Kuwait 2
2.82
2.76
2.77
2.85
0.09
2.61
0.06
Libya
0.87
0.69
0.44
0.85
0.41
0.46
-0.44
Nigeria
1.88
1.92
1.87
2.00
0.13
1.91
-0.05
Qatar
0.69
0.68
0.67
0.73
0.06
0.71
-0.02
Saudi A rabia2
9.68
9.61
9.62
12.40
2.78
9.53
0.12
UA E
2.74
2.71
2.76
2.90
0.14
2.75
-0.01
Venezuela3
2.46
2.44
2.42
2.60
0.18
2.46
-0.03
3 0 .6 3
3 0 .4 0
3 0 .4 8
3 4 .3 7
3 .9 9
3 0 .2 8
- 0 .18
T o tal OP EC
(excluding Iraq, Nigeria, Libya and Iran)
3 .3 9
1 Capacit y levels can be reached wit hin 30 days and sustained for 90 days.
2 Includes half of Neutral Zone production.
3 Includes upgraded Orinoco ext ra-heavy oil assumed at 440 kb/ d in December.
IraniancrudeoilproductionedgedhigherinDecember,up30kb/dto2.84mb/d,asdiplomatsfromIran
andthesocalledP5+1(theUS,UK,France,Russia,ChinaandGermany)preparedforafreshroundof
talksoveranucleardeal.ThetwosideshaveuntiltheendofJunetosecurealongtermsettlementthat
wouldleadtotheremovalofrigorouseconomicsanctionsimposedonIranbytheUSandtheEU.Until
then,apartialeasingofsanctionsunderapreliminarydealinNovember2013remainsinplace.Under
thatagreement,anominal1mb/dcapwassetonIranscrudeexports.During2014,shipmentsofIranian
crude, as measured by estimated receipts by importers, were running around 90 kb/d above the target,
andabout70kb/dhigherthanthepreviousyear.Productionfor2014isestimatedatabout2.8mb/d
roughly130kb/dhigherthan2013.
16
16J ANUARY 2015
S UPPLY
Iranian Crude Imports*
mb/d
1.2
Iran Crude Production
mb/d
4.0
3.0
3.8
1.0
2.5
3.6
0.8
2.0
0.6
1.5
3.0
0.4
1.0
2.8
0.2
0.5
2.6
0.0
Jan-11 Oct-11
3.4
3.2
2.4
Jan
Mar
2011
May
Jul
2012
Sep
Nov
2013
Jan
0.0
Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14
Total - RHS
OECD PAC
Other Non-OECD
2014
OECD EUR
China / India
*includescondensate
For December, preliminary figures show deliveries of Iranian crude at 1.1 mb/d, up 130 kb/d mom.
PurchasesinOctoberandNovemberhaddippedbelowthenominal1mb/dtarget.Syriareturnedasan
importerinDecember,withdeliveriesof60kb/d.India,Iranssecondbiggestcustomer,raisedpurchases
by70kb/dto320kb/d.DeliveriestoChina,Iranstopbuyer,wererelativelysteadyat560kb/dversus
545kb/d in November. Japan cut imports by 60 kb/d to 105 kb/d in December, while Korea increased
purchasesby45kb/dfromNovemberto130kb/d.DeliveriesintoTurkeyheldsteadyataround90kb/d.
ShipmentsofcondensateultralightoilfromIransSouthParsgasprojectaveragedabout190kb/d
for2014versus85kb/dduringthepreviousyear.ImportvolumesarebasedondatasubmittedbyOECD
countries,nonOECDstatisticsfromcustomsagencies,tankermovementsandnewsreports.
Kuwaitiproduction,whichhasslowedduetotheextendedclosureoftheKhafjioilfieldrunjointlywith
SaudiArabiaintheNeutralZone,showedlittlemomchangeat2.77mb/dinDecember.Asimilarlyflat
trendwasseeninQatar,whileproductionfromtheUAErose50kb/dmomto2.76mb/d.
Kuwait Crude Production
mb/d
Nigeria Crude Production
mb/d
2.9
2.4
2.8
2.3
2.7
2.2
2.6
2.1
2.5
2.0
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.2
1.8
Jan
Mar
2011
May
2012
Jul
Sep
2013
Nov
Jan
2014
Jan
Mar
2011
May
2012
Jul
Sep
2013
Nov
Jan
2014
In West Africa, Nigerian output fell by 50 kb/d to 1.87 mb/d due to maintenance and disruptions
affectingvariousexportstreams.Angolansupplyroseby30kb/dmomto1.72mb/d.Bothcountries
showedslightdecreasesfortheyearasawhole.Nigeriawasdown50kb/dtoanaverage1.91mb/din
2014,whileAngolaslipped60kb/dto1.66mb/d.
Iraqi production races ahead

CrudeoilproductionfromIraq,includingtheKurdistanRegionalGovernment(KRG),climbed290kb/dtoa
35year high of 3.7 mb/d in December thanks to record southern exports and rising shipments from the
north.Lookingahead,Iraqcouldbreaknewrecordsifinfrastructureandweatherpermit.Iraqioilmarketer
SOMO has issued a preliminary schedule of February exports from southern terminals of 3.3mb/d its
highesteverallocation.
16J ANUARY 2015
17
S UPPLY
Iraqi production races ahead (continued)

GivenoilspriceroutandIraqsbudgetneeds,OPECssecondbiggestproducerhaseveryincentivetoramp
upexportsasfastasitcan.ButthepricecollapsehasbluntedtherevenuegainsurgentlyneededforIraq,
wherethebattleagainstIslamicmilitantsisdepletingthefinancialresourcesofthefederalgovernmentand
the KRG. Baghdad says earnings from December exports of 2.94 mb/d were around $5.2 billion. In June,
whenthepriceofoilreachedits2014peak,exportsof2.4mb/drakedinnearly$8billion.
December southern Basra Light shipments of 2.76 mb/d, the best ever rate, provided the bulk of Iraqi
exports.Shipmentsroseby260kb/dfromNovemberduetotheefficientuseofexportfacilitiesandclearer
weather in the Gulf that eased loading delays. Due to ongoing infrastructure bottlenecks, the southern
export facilities are currently capable of handling up to 2.8 mb/d on a sustainable basis, industry sources
reckon. Storage is limited to around 7 million barrels. Iraqs state oil marketer SOMO initially allocated
2.7mb/d of Basra Light exports for January. Preliminary February loading schedules are even higher
althoughsuchinitialplansaresubjecttorevisionandoftenfallshortofinitialtargets.
mb/d
Iraq Production and Exports
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14
Iraq Crude Production
mb/d
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
Jan
Mar
2011
May
2012
Jul
Sep
2013
Nov
Jan
2014
KRG production
Local Use
Basrah exports
Kirkuk exports
Less Fuel Blending
IEA Est Production
InthewakeofanexportagreementbetweenBaghdadandtheKRG,shipmentsfromnorthernIraqviathe
KRGspipelinetoTurkeyclimbedto180kb/dinDecemberupfrom30kb/dthepreviousmonththefirst
monthofsubstantialexportssinceearlyintheyear.Someofthatvolumewasloadedfromstorage,industry
sources say. Baghdad had been shipping close to 300 kb/d from its northern fields until a federally
controlledpipelinetoTurkeywasshutinearlyMarchduetorepeatedattacksbyIslamistmilitants.TheKRG
hasmeanwhilebeenshippingoilindependentlyofBaghdadviaitsownpipelinetoTurkeysincetheendof
May.Theexportdealof2DecembercallsfortheKRGtoprovide250kb/dtoSOMOtosellandallowsfor
another300kb/dfromKirkuktoflowthroughtheKRGspipelinesystem.Inreturn,thecentralgovernment
istoreleasetheKRGs17%shareofnationalrevenue.
Exports of northern crude are expected to rise to about 300 kb/d in January, with Iraqi state North Oil
Company (NOC) exporting Kirkuk crude for the first time since March. In January, NOC started to pump
150kb/d from the Kirkuk fields Baba dome and the Jambur oil field. The crude travels through a new
pipelinethatlinksthefieldstotheKRGsexportsystem.
A preliminary loading schedule for January shows 300 kb/d of northern Iraqi crude exports, with about
250kb/ddesignatedasKirkukCo.and50kb/dlabelledasKurdishCo..Industrysourcesintheregionsay
overall flows through the pipeline have reached 450 kb/d. Despite the progress made under the export
arrangement,thereisstillsomeconfusionamongpotentialbuyersastowhichentitywillmarketthecrude.
BaghdadhaslongdisputedthelegalityoftheKRGsindependentpipelineshipments,sayingonlythefederal
government has the right to market Iraqi crude. KRG officials have said that oil in excess of the 250kb/d
wouldbesoldbytheKRGratherthanSOMO.LiftersoftheKurdishCo.oildonotappearontheschedule.
Turkeys Tupras and Russias Lukoil appear to be the major buyers of Kirkuk Co. oil, with Italys Eni and
SpanishRepsolduetoloadsmallcargoes.
Around120kb/doftheKRGsproductionofabout500kb/disdrawnfromtheKirkukfieldsAvanadome
and the nearby Bai Hassan, which had previously been run by NOC. After Islamist militants swept across
northernIraqthissummer,theKRGtookcontrolofthesenorthernassets.ThegiantKirkukoilfieldisdivided
into three geological domes Avana, Baba and Khurmala. The KRG has been managing Khurmala, the
northernmostformation,since2008.
18
16J ANUARY 2015
S UPPLY
Libyancrudeproductionsankto440kb/dinDecember,down250kb/dmom,asfightingbetweenthe
countrys two rival governments, the socalled Libya Dawn administration in Tripoli and the officially
recognisedgovernmentthatfledtoTobrukintheeast,spreadtothevitaleasternoilportsofEsSider
andRasLanuf.ByearlyJanuary,outputhadsunktowards200kb/dthelowestlevelsince2Q14after
anendDecemberrocketattackbyLibyaDawnforcesstruckcrudestoragetanksattheEsSiderterminal.
Violence is raging between the Libya Dawn forces that took over Tripoli last summer and the Tobruk
government.
The resulting fires at the terminal damaged six of

Libya Crude Production
19tanksandledtothelossofaround1.5mbofcrudein mb/d
2.0
storage. Exports from Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, which
between them can handle 560 kb/d, had already been 1.5
suspended earlier in the month after clashes between
armed groups. The countrys crude oil shipments have 1.0
slumpedtoamere60kb/d.
0.5
The North African producers oil fields had briefly 0.0

ramped up to 1mb/d in October, before the conflict -0.5
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan
spread to the oil sector. After the war that ousted
2011
2012
2013
2014
MuammarGaddafiin2011,outputmanagedtoclimbas
high as 1.45 mb/d. That level was last touched in
November2012.
Industrysourcessayproductionisunlikelytorisesignificantlyfromitscurrent200kb/dlevelwhilethere
isheavyfightingaroundtheterminalsandthefrontlinebetweenLibyaDawnandtroopsledbyformer
GaddafiArmyGeneralKhalifaHaftarremainsinthearea.
Oil below $50/bbl is proving especially stressful for recessionhit Venezuela, where supply eased to
2.42mb/d,andEcuador,whereoutputheldat550kb/d.BothSouthAmericancountrieslobbiedChinain
early January for additional funding. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro also sought financing from
fellow OPEC member Qatar. Venezuelas precarious financial situation has stoked concerns of a
sovereign debt default. Caracas has renewed its call for an OPEC supply cut and Maduro met Saudi
ArabiasCrownPrinceSalmaninRiyadhtodiscusstheplungeinoilprices.
Non-OPEC Overview
NonOPECproductionroseby70kb/dinDecembermom,to57.24mb/d.Asharpseasonalfallinglobal
biofuels supply, mainly Brazilian ethanol, was not enough to offset petroleum liquids production
increases in North America and the FSU. On the year, nonOPEC supplies stood 1.3mb/d higher in
December,thankstorisingNorthAmericaandLatinAmericasupplies,whichmorethanoffsetdecreases
invirtuallyeveryotherregion.For2014asawhole,totalnonOPECoutputisestimatedtohavegrownby
arecord1.9mb/d,to56.5mb/d.
Althoughmuchloweroilpriceswilltakeatollonspendingandproductionin2015,nonOPECsupplies
areneverthelessforecasttoincreasebylessthan1mb/dfortheyear,to57.5mb/d.TheUSandCanada
willcontinuetobethetoptwosourcesofnonOPECproductiongrowth,butlowercrudeoilpricessince
mid2014havecausedasignificantreductionincapitalexpenditures,whichwilldampengrowthin2H15.
RigsdrillinganddrillingpermitsintheUSsubstantiallydecreasedin4Q14andatthebeginningof2015,
withperhapsfurtherreductionssubsequentlyforeseen.TheforecastofUSproductiongrowthfor2015
hasbeenreducedby75kb/dsincelastmonthsReport,to850kb/d,andthatofCanadiansuppliesby
95kb/d,to220kd/d.Overall,theforecastofnonOPECsupplygrowthhasbeenreducedbyanaggregate
350kb/d.
16J ANUARY 2015
19
S UPPLY
mb/d Total Non-OPEC Supply, y-o-y Change

2.5
mb/d
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
1Q11
1Q12
Other
1Q13
1Q14
North America
1Q15
Total
Non-OPEC Supply - By Liquid Type

(y-o-y change)
Crude
NGL
Processing Gains
Non-conv
Global Biofuels
Total
Brazil,whichsawanimpressivejumpinproductioninthesecondhalfof2014,willcontinueasthethird
largestsourceofnonOPECgrowthin2015.AlthoughmuchofBrazilsproductionisprofitablewithcrude
at around $50/bbl, national oil company Petrobrass enormous debt will limit the availability of
investment to further develop the countrys prolific presalt deposits. Lower oil prices coupled with
continued problems associated with a corruption probe of Petrobras provide significant uncertainty
surroundingtheBraziloutlook.
Although Russia posted a new postSoviet high in terms of production for 2014, its outlook for 2015
turnedmorenegativecomparedwiththelastReport.Thecountryisenteringadeeprecessionaslowoil
prices,internationalsanctions,adevaluedcurrencyandhighinterestratesalltakeatollontheoilsector.
ThelatestforecastRussiaproductionreflectsadownwardrevisionof30kb/dsincelastmonthsReport.
OECD
North America
USDecemberpreliminary,Alaskaactual,othersestimated:EstimatedUSliquidsoutputfellslightlyto
12.4mb/d in December, a decrease of 60kb/d mom. Production of crude oil rose by about 30kb/d,
offsetbyseasonaldeclinesinNGLproduction.LTO,themostpriceresponsivesourceofsupply,posted
anothermonthofgains,growingbyabout30kb/d.FreezingweatherconditionsinthePermianBasinin
TexashaveaffectedoiloutputinDecember,albeitmarginally.Weestimatethatweatherwillbeafactor
in January as well, with about 80kb/d of combined oil output shutin in the Permian Basin and the
Bakken.PioneerNaturalResourcesalreadyreportedinearlyJanuarythaticyweathercausedextensive
poweroutagesandfacilityfreezeupsintheSpraberry/Wolfcamparea.FinaldataforOctobershowthat
totalUSliquidsproduction,excludingbiofuelsandrefineryprocessinggain,rose170kb/dto12.3mb/d.
Gainsof105kb/dinNGLproductionaccountedformostofthisincrease.
With ten months of data finalised for 2014, US liquids

US Total Oil Supply - Yearly Change
mb/d
fuels production is estimated to have grown to
1.7
11.8mb/d on average for the year, 1.5mb/d higher
1.5
than in 2013. Crude oil production rose by 1.2mb/d to
1.3
1.1
8.6mb/d. NGL production increased to 2.9mb/d,
0.9
accounting for more than 50% of total nonOPEC NGL
0.7
0.5
output. US production outlook has been revised
0.3
downward
by 50kb/d for 2015, with cuts to growth
0.1
-0.1
occurring in the second half of the year. Further
-0.3
downward revisions are possible, however, should
1Q11
1Q12
1Q13
1Q14
1Q15
Alaska
California
Texas
prices decline into the mid to low $40s per barrel and
Other L48
Gulf of Mexico
NGLs
remainthereforanextendedperiod,asizeableshareof
North Dakota
Total
USproductionmaybeunprofitable.
20
16J ANUARY 2015
S UPPLY
AlthoughproductiondatashownosignofaletdowninUScrudeoilsupplygrowthjustyet,thelatest
drillingdatahintataslowdowntocome.DrillingdatapublishedbyBakerHugheson9Januaryshowthe
largestweeklyrigcountdropsinceMarch2009,to1750,adecreaseof61rigs.Thenumberofhorizontal
rigs, which are used in tight rock formations, decreased by 35. Overall, the USrig count stands at its
lowestlevelsincetheendof2013.
Theleastproductiverigswerelikelytobetakenofflinefirst,makingitdifficulttoquantifytheimpacton
supply in the future. While US LTO is the most priceresponsive source of supply due to its short lead
timewhenpricesarerising,itsdownsidepriceresponsivenesshasyettobetestedinthisway.Otherrisk
factorstoLTOproductioninalowpriceenvironmentarethehighoperatingcostsfacingLTOproducers,
whichcoupledwithhighdebtlevelsandnegativecashflows,maychangetheupstreamlandscapeinthe
US shale arena. Contract drillers are reporting early rig contract terminations, such as Pioneer Energy
Services,asdrillingrespondstoprices.
Meanwhile, companies are reviewing and revising their capital expenditure plans for 2015, with
estimatesfordecreasesrangingbetween10%and50%.Howeveratleastsomeofthedecreaseincapital
expenditures is offset by deflating oil service costs, which may decline by more than 15%. There have
beenreportsofsmalloperatorsintheUSfilingforbankruptcy.
mb/d
Canada December estimated: Canadian total liquids
Canada Oil Supply - Yearly Change
0.5
production rose to 4.3mb/d in December, extending
0.4
earliergains.Albertabitumenproductionroseby85kb/d
0.3
to 1.3mb/d compared with November, reversing the
0.2
declines registered that month. NGL production rose to
0.1
690kb/d, the highest level since February 2014. Low
0.0
crude oil prices are having an effect on Canadas
-0.1
production outlook for 2015. Oil output in 2015 is
-0.2
expected to increase to 4.3mb/d, about 95kb/d lower
than last months Report, a change necessitated by oil
NGLs
Other Light Conventional
price declines. The lower growth comes on the back of
Saskatchewan
In Situ Bitumen
Alberta Heavy
Alberta L&M
lower capital expenditures, particularly new capital
Synthetic Crude
Synthetic Crude
intensiveprojects.
Imperialreportedlystartedits40kb/dNabiyeoilsandsfacilityinAlberta,withfirstproductionexpected
onlinesometimebeforetheendof1Q15.Theproject,whichbeginsoperationsafteryearsofplanning
anddeveloping,ispartoftheColdLakedevelopment.Itwillusethecyclicsteamstimulationtechnology
(CSS)thatinvolvescompletingcyclesofsteaminjection,soakingandoilproduction.Meanwhile,Husky
EnergypostponedthestartupoftwoofitsheavyoilprojectsinSaskatchewan,eachofwhichisslatedto
produce 10kb/d. The Rush Lake project was delayed to 3Q15 while the Edam East projects is now
expectedtocomeonstreamin3Q16.Thedelaysatthesetwoprojectsarereportedlynotrelatedtothe
recentoilpricedeclines.
Thousands
Mexico November actual, December preliminary:

Crude oil production declined about 85kb/d mom in
November, to 2.6mb/d. NGL production also fell to
340kb/dinthemonth,andlikelyremainedatthatlevel
for December. Preliminary crude oil production figures
for December show output roughly flat with November
at2.6mb/d.
Mexicosgovernmentfinallylaunchedthemuchawaited
Round One in midDecember of its historic upstream
16J ANUARY 2015
Mexico Total Oil Supply
mb/d
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
Jan
Mar
May
2011
2013
2015 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2012
2014
2014 forecast
21
S UPPLY
reform.Followingafeedbackperiodbytheindustry,Mexicopublishedthepreliminarycontractsforthe
14 shallowwater exploration blocks in the Southeastern Basin that it is offering up for bidding. Blocks
offeredareintheSalinadelIstmoandMascupanaareas.Mexicohasalsoreleaseddetailsregardingthe
fiscal terms of the contracts. The production sharing contracts will operate a returnbased adjustment
mechanism,withprofittakesgraduallydecreasingashigherlevelsofinternalrateofreturnarereached.
According to some estimates, production costs in Mexicos shallow water fields are roughly $20 per
barrel,andtheareaisfairlywellexploredwithvastamountsofseismicdataalreadyavailable.Thisoffer
is the first stage of Round One, which will be awarded through the summer of 2015. Round One is
focused on five areas: shallow water, extra heavy oil, Chicontepec and unconventional oil and gas,
onshoreanddeepwater.
North Sea
Total North Sea production was estimated at 2.9mb/d in December, rising about 100kb/d mom,
however January volumes are expected to average roughly 40kb/d lower. BFOE January loadings are
scheduledat890kb/d,fallingbyabout95kb/dmom.CurrentloadingsvolumescheduledforFebruary
isroughlyflatcomparedwithJanuary.
NorwayOctoberactual,Novemberpreliminary:Totalliquidsoutputreboundedbyabout130kb/din
Octoberandafurther15kb/dinNovemberdespitetechnicalproblemsattheFramHNord,GullfaksSr,
Oseberg Sr, Skarv, Skuld, Ula and Visund fields. The recent levels of output show a recovery from a
September low of 1.79 mb/d that was mainly the result of planned and unplanned maintenance. Crude
outputforNovemberisestimatedat1.47mb/d,75kb/dlowerthanlastyear.Withfinaldataforthelasttwo
months of the year still outstanding, current estimates indicate that Norways total output for 2014 was
1.88mb/d,40kb/dhigherthanin2013.Productionissettodeclineslightlythisyear,averaging1.85mb/d.
Much potential remains in the North Sea, with new fields coming online in Norway since December.
ConocolaunchedtheEldfiskII,partoftheGreaterEkofiskArea.Thefieldisexpectedtorampupoverthe
nextthreeyearsasadditionalwellsareplacedintoservice.Atotalof40productionandwaterinjection
wellsareexpectedtocomeonlineatthefieldwithinthenextthreeyears,howeveritisnotclearifthis
projectwillbereevaluatedinlightoflowerprices.Statoil,too,startedtheValemongasandcondensate
field, part of the companys fasttrack program. The fields estimated recoverable reserves are
192millionboe.
Norway Total Oil Supply
mb/d
2.4
UK Total Oil Supply
mb/d
1.6
1.4
2.2
1.2
2.0
1.0
1.8
0.8
1.6
0.6
1.4
0.4
Jan
Mar
May
2011
2013
2015 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2012
2014
2014 forecast
Jan
Mar
May
2011
2013
2015 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2012
2014
2014 forecast
UK November preliminary: Offshore crude oil production rose to 780kb/d in October, up by about
50kb/dmomandextendingSeptembersrecoveryfrommultiyearlowsrecordedinAugust.However,
some of these gains appear to have since been reversed, with production estimated to have declined
somewhat in November. Overall in 2014, UK liquids output averaged an estimated 860kb/d, a fall of
about30kb/dyoy.AlthoughUKproductioncontinuestoshowadecliningtrend,themagnitudeofthe
declinesissignificantlylowerthanthoserecordedsince2011.Theslowerpaceofdeclineisundoubtedly
22
16J ANUARY 2015
S UPPLY
duetonewprojectscomingonline,whichareoffsettingdeclinesatlegacyfieldsintheUKoffshore.In
thelatestsuchdevelopment,BPannouncedthatithasstartedproductionattheKinnoullfield,partof
therejuvenationoftheAndrewfield.
Non-OECD
Latin America
Brazil November actual: Crude oil and total liquids output (excluding ethanol) each fell by about
35kb/dinNovembermom,to2.34mb/dand2.4mb/d,respectively.Themonthlydecline,whichwas
duetomaintenance,wasthefirstin10months.Petrobrasstoppedoutputatthreefloating,production,
storageandoffloadingfacilities(FPSO)inordertoinstallnewoilandgasprocessingequipment.Presalt
volumes totalled about 600kb/d, decreasing slightly mom. Ethanol production fell by 505kb/d in
November in line with seasonal patterns, and is estimated to have dropped by a further 275kb/d in
December. Even with the November dip in production, Brazils liquid fuels production remains about
260kb/d higher yoy. Overall, Brazils 2014 production is estimated to have averaged 2.3mb/d, an
increaseofroughly210kb/dfrom2013.Continuingthisyearstrendofgrowth,Brazils2015outputis
forecasttoriseto2.5mb/d.
Amid the positive developments in production, Petrobras legal woes continue. In yet another setback
forthecompany,acorruptionprobefurtherdelayedthepublicationofits3Q14financialresults.TheUS
Securities and Exchange Commission has issued a subpoena for documents related to the corruption
investigation, and the company is now also facing a classaction complaint in US federal court. While
Petrobras has received permission from its creditors to postpone the publication of its unaudited
earnings statement until the end of January, any further delays could trigger an acceleration of the
companysdebtrepaymentsandmaybarthecompanyfrominternationalbondmarkets.Lackofaccess
toadditionalfundsmaymakeitimpossibletocontinuefinancingupstreamdevelopments,includingthe
prolificpresaltareas.
Colombia November estimate: Colombias production was estimated at roughly 1.0mb/d in

December,flatmom.The2014outputisestimatedtohaveaveraged990kb/d,a20kb/ddipcompared
with2013.AlthoughColombiahasthepotentialtoincreaseitsoutput,thecountryhasseenerodingoil
productionduring2014,mainlyduetotherecurrenceofpoliticalunrestandpipelineattacks,whichhave
coincided with reduced support for FARC rebels from Venezuela. In addition to a worsening security
situation, lacklustre exploration results, operational problems at mature fields and declining oil prices
have necessitated a downward revision to Colombias outlook for 2015. Ecopetrol, Colombias largest
producer, announced a 25% reduction in expected production in 2015, and deep cuts to planned
investmentduringtheyear.PacificRubiales,Colombiaslargestindependentproducer,isalsoreducing
its upstream budget in response to low prices, with a 32% cut in planned capex for 2015. Overall, we
expectColombiasoutputtoaverage930kb/din2015,adownwardrevisionof170kb/d.
Former Soviet Union

Russia November actual, December provisional:
DecemberdatashowthatRussiasproductionincreased
to10.99mb/d,including10.15mb/dofcrudeoil.State
owned Rosneft, by far the countrys largest producer
with 3.7 mb/d of production, continued to struggle to
haltthedeclinesatitsWestSiberianfields,whilesmaller
companies accounted for the monthly production
increases. Overall, in 2014, Russias oil production
inched up by about 50 kb/d on the year to a new post
Soviet high of 10.93mb/d, its sixth consecutive annual
16J ANUARY 2015
Russia Total Oil Supply
mb/d
11.1
11.0
10.9
10.8
10.7
10.6
10.5
Jan
Mar
May
2011
2013
2015 forecast
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2012
2014
2014 forecast
23
S UPPLY
increase. Russias 2015 output is expected to fall by 140kb/d, reflecting the effects of low oil prices
compounded by international sanctions that restrict its access to capital. The latest forecast Russia
productionreflectsadownwardrevisionof30kb/dsincelastmonthsReport.
Russia is heading for a deep recession. The low oil prices, sanctionsrelated restrictions on technology
andfinancingandthedecliningroubleallpresentseverechallengestoRussiasoilsector,exacerbating
theoveralleffectofnaturaldeclinesatthecountrysbrownfields.ThesecondlargestnonOPECproducer
relies on its oil and gas exports for most of its revenue, and the slump in prices is having farreaching
consequencesfortheeconomy.
FSUnetexportsFSUnetexportsinchedupby50kb/dtoaverage9.03mb/dinNovember.Lowercrude
exports (130kb/d) were offset by stronger product exports (170kb/d) as Russian refiners ramped up
theirrunsonthemonthwhereascrudeproductionwaslittlechanged.ExportsfromtheBlackSeawere
kept up by the highest volumes out of CPC terminal to date, although not enough to compensate for
declineselsewhere,particularlyfromtheBalticandtheBTC.Withinproducts,gasoilandfueloilledthe
increaseattheexpenseofotherproducts,notablynaphtha.PreliminarytankerdatasuggestsoverallFSU
waterbornecrudeexportsincheddowninDecember,ledbydeclinesinBalticloadings,partiallyoffsetby
areboundinvolumesshippedfromCeyhan(BTC).
FSU Net Exports of Crude & Petroleum Products

(million barrels per day)
2012
2013
4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Latest month vs.

Oct 14 Nov 13
Crude
Black Sea
1.81
1.78
1.78
1.74
1.65
1.59
1.67
1.48
1.62
0.14
-0.18
Baltic
1.67
1.57
1.58
1.33
1.46
1.32
1.36
1.37
1.32
-0.05
-0.30
Arctic/FarEast
0.65
0.80
0.82
0.88
1.18
1.23
1.33
1.29
1.25
-0.04
0.41
BTC
0.66
0.64
0.61
0.58
0.59
0.68
0.63
0.60
0.46
-0.14
-0.21
Crude Seaborne
4.79
4.80
4.79
4.53
4.88
4.82
5.00
4.73
4.64
-0.09
-0.29
Druzhba Pipeline
1.08
1.03
1.05
1.01
1.00
1.03
1.09
1.02
0.99
-0.02
-0.06
Other Routes
0.52
0.56
0.60
0.71
0.38
0.38
0.34
0.36
0.36
0.00
-0.23
Total Crude Exports

Of Which: Transneft1
6.39
6.39
6.44
6.26
6.26
6.22
6.43
6.11
5.98
-0.13
-0.59
4.22
4.07
4.07
3.95
4.02
3.90
4.15
3.99
3.76
-0.23
-0.38
Products
Fuel oil2
1.72
1.62
1.44
1.63
1.75
1.79
1.80
1.62
1.75
0.13
0.35
Gasoil
0.79
0.84
0.73
1.04
1.00
0.88
0.87
0.80
0.94
0.15
0.22
Other Products
0.44
0.50
0.53
0.64
0.61
0.55
0.56
0.54
0.43
-0.11
-0.07
Total Product
2.95
2.97
2.70
3.31
3.37
3.22
3.22
2.96
3.13
0.17
0.50
Total Exports
9.34
9.36
9.14
9.56
9.63
9.44
9.66
9.06
9.11
0.04
-0.09
Imports
0.09
0.08
0.09
0.07
0.07
0.10
0.12
0.09
0.08
-0.01
-0.01
Net Exports
9.25
9.29
9.05
9.49
9.56
9.34
9.54
8.97
9.03
0.05
-0.08
Sources: Argus Media Ltd, IEA estimates

1
Transneft data exclude Russian CPC volumes.

Includes Vacuum Gas Oil
24
16J ANUARY 2015
OECD S TOCKS
OECD STOCKS
Summary
OECDcommercialinventoriesfellby8.7mbinNovembertostandat2697mbatendmonth.Since
this draw was slightly below the 10.9 mb fiveyear average decline for the month, the surplus of
stocksversustheseasonalaveragewidenedslightlyto6.7mb.
Preliminarydataindicatethatstockssoaredcounterseasonallyby12.5mbinDecember.Asrefined
productsholdingssurged,thissawinventoriessurplusswellto74.0mb,thewidestsinceAugust2010.
AsthecontangoinICEBrentsteepedoverearlyJanuary,interestinfloatingstoragewasreignited
with reports of trading houses booking up to 30 mb of longterm floating storage capacity by mid
January.Nonetheless,atthetimeofwriting,actuallevelsoffloatingstockswerestillestimatedona
parwithendDecember.
Crudeholdingsplummetedby12.6mbinNovemberafterrefinershikedruns,withproductsstocks
soaring counterseasonally by 9.8 mb. At endmonth, OECD refined product inventories covered
30.0days of forward demand, 0.1 days above endOctober. Meanwhile, stocks of NGLs and other
feedstocksslippedseasonallyby5.8mb.
October inventories were revised down by 14.5 mb following a 9.1 mb downward adjustment in
OECD Europe. Consequently, the 18.3 mb surplus of inventories to seasonal levels in October
presentedinlastmonthsReportwasadjusteddownwardsto6.7mb.
OECD Industry Total Oil Stocks
mb
mb
2,835
Relative to Five-Year Average
100
2,785
50
2,735
2,685
-50
2,635
-100
2,585
-150
Nov 12
May 13
Asia Oceania
Europe
Nov 13
May 14
2,535
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
Nov 14
Americas
OECD
OECD Total Oil Stocks
2013
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
2014
OECD inventory position at end-November and revisions to preliminary data

OECDcommercialoilinventoriesfellby8.7mbtostandat2697mbatendNovember.Sincethisdraw
wasslightlybelowthe10.9mbfiveyearaveragedrawforthemonth,thesurplusofstocksversusthe
seasonal average widened slightly to 6.7 mb. This was less than the provisional 18.3mb surplus
presented in last months Report due to a 14.5 mbdownward adjustment to October data, centred in
OECDEurope,mainlyItaly.
Soaring refinery throughputs in November caused crude oil stocks to plummet by 12.6mb.
Simultaneously,thehighrefineryactivitysawproductinventoriesrisecounterseasonallyby9.8mb,led
byEuropeandAsiaOceania.ProductholdingsintheAmericasfellafterdrawsinotherproducts,here
includingethaneandLPG,whichlargelybypasstherefinerysystem.
16January2015
25
OECD S TOCKS
Widening contango re-ignites interest in floating storage

Withthecontangobetweenthefirstandthirdmonths
in the ICEBrent contract steepening over early
January, interest in floating storage has been re
ignitedwithshipbrokerreportsinthattradinghouses
are rapidly booking 2mb VLCC tankers on longterm
charters with options for storage. Reports indicate
that up to 15 VLCCs have already been booked with
storage options which, when combined with high oil
onwatervolumes,hasseenVLCCratessurgetofive
yearhighsinearlyJanuary.
ICE Brent
Forward Price Curve
$/bbl
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Source: ICE
M1 2
10 11 12
Current crude price structures appear to support

09 Jan 14
11 Nov 14
09 Dec 14
09 Jan 15
floating storage. As ICE Brent has plunged to below
$50/bbl over earlyJanuary, the M1M3 spread widened to $2.55/bbl from $1.38/bbl one month earlier.
Meanwhile,theM1M12spreadcurrentlystandsat$10.48/bbl.Thesespreadsarenowatthelevelwhere
marketparticipantscancovertheirstoragecostsincludingcharterfees,bunkerfuels,insuranceandloading
anddischargefees,andexpecttomakeaprofit.Nonetheless,atthetimeofwriting,noincreaseinshort
term floating storage (not including Iranian volumes held on tankers for logistical reasons) had been
confirmedwithgloballevelsremainingonaparwithDecember.Consideringthesteepglobalstockbuild
projectedfor1H15,thelikelihoodofanuptickinfloatingstoragewouldincreaseasglobalsupplyoutstrips
demandoverthenextfewmonths.
Considering the contango in the NYMEX WTI contract, another option for traders has been the Cushing
storageplay.ByearlyJanuary,theNYMEXWTIM1M12spreadhadwidenedto$7.54/bblfrom$2.23/bbl
one month earlier. In the second week of January WTI briefly traded at a premium to Brent with market
reportsindicatingincreasedcrudebeingboughtandputdirectlyintostorageatthehub.Despitethelimited
options for shipping oil from Cushing to market, storage at the hub is attractive since landbased storage
costsarelessthanatseaandthereiscurrentlycloseto37mbofavailablecapacityatthehub.
Revisions versus 12 December 2014 Oil Market Report

(millio n barrels)
Americ as
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
Other Oils 1
Total Oil
Europe
Asia Oc eania
Sep- 14
Oc t- 14
Sep- 14
Oc t- 14
1.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.3
1.0
4.6
-3.2
-4.8
0.2
3.2
-4.6
1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.0
0.3
-2.3
-3.9
-6.4
1.1
1.1
-8.1
1.2
-9.1
Sep- 14
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
OECD
Oc t- 14
Sep- 14
Oc t- 14
-3.7
-0.6
-2.9
-0.1
1.3
-2.2
-0.8
-6.8
1.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
-0.1
0.3
-0.3
1.3
-1.4
-7.6
-14.1
1.2
5.6
-14.9
1.8
-14.5
1 Other o ils includes NGLs, feedsto cks and o ther hydro carbo ns.
On a productbyproduct basis, OECD middle distillates stocks rose by a steep 7.8 mb, reducing their
deficitversusseasonallevelsto35mb,from42mbonemonthearlier.Motorgasolineinventoriessurged
by 12.7 mb, faster than the 8.3 mb fiveyear average build for the month, as refiners in the US built
stocks of wintergrade product and those in Europe likely had difficulty disposing of excess gasoline
produced as a result of maintaining high middle distillate production. All told, OECD refined product
inventoriescovered30.0daysofforwarddemandatendNovember,0.1daysaboveendOctober.
Preliminary data indicate that OECD inventories built counterseasonally by 12.5 mb over December,
comparedtoanaveragedrawof54.8mbforthemonth.Thestocksurplustoseasonallevelsswelledto
74.0mb, the widest such surplus since August 2010, and a startling turnaround, considering that
inventorieshadbeen indeficit untilSeptember2014.The build centredon OECDAmericas(+22.8mb)
26
16January2015
OECD S TOCKS
whereproductstockssurgedasrefineryrunshitrecordlevels.InventoriesinOECDAsiaOceaniadropped
by 9.9mb, about half the seasonal average, while European stocks slipped by 0.4 mb. If these stock
changesareconfirmed,OECDinventorieswillhaveadded10.5mbover4Q14and143mbovertheyear
asawhole.
Preliminary Industry Stock Change in November 2014 and Third Quarter 2014
(million barrels)
Am
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
1
Other Oils
Total Oil
November 2014 (preliminary)

Europe
As. Ocean
-4.5
3.3
6.3
2.0
-1.8
9.8
-0.6
4.7
-7.6
0.6
2.7
-0.9
0.5
2.9
-1.7
-6.4
-0.4
8.8
-1.2
0.8
-11.3
-2.9
-3.5
-6.9
Total
-12.6
12.7
7.8
1.9
-12.6
9.8
-5.8
-8.7
Third Quarter 2014

Am
Europe
As. Ocean
Total
Am
Europe
As. Ocean
Total
-0.01
0.29
-0.04
0.03
-0.38
-0.10
-0.12
-0.23
-0.15
0.11
0.21
0.07
-0.06
0.33
-0.02
0.16
-0.25
0.02
0.09
-0.03
0.02
0.10
-0.06
-0.21
-0.42
0.42
0.26
0.06
-0.42
0.33
-0.19
-0.29
-0.20
-0.08
0.13
0.00
0.33
0.38
0.14
0.32
-0.13
0.04
0.20
-0.05
0.06
0.25
-0.02
0.10
-0.02
-0.02
0.18
0.02
0.10
0.28
0.05
0.32
-0.34
-0.06
0.51
-0.03
0.50
0.92
0.16
0.73
1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.
Recent OECD industry stock changes

OECD Americas
Industry inventories in OECD Americas followed seasonal trends adding 6.9 mb in November. Despite
regional refinery throughputs surging by over 800 kb/d, crude stocks only inched down by 0.4mb as
domestic production continued to soar. By endmonth, regional crude stocks stood at 538 mb, 16mb
abovethepreviousyearand40mbabovethefiveyearaverage.
High refinery activity did not stop regional product inventories from decreasing seasonally by 2.9mb.
Stocksofotherproducts,acategorythatincludes LPG,propaneandethane andlargelybypassesthe
refinery system, sank by 11.3 mb, slightly steeper than the 10.5mb seasonal average draw for the
month. In contrast, refined products (including motor gasoline, middle distillates and residual fuel oil)
rosebyacombined8.4mb.
Afterpostinglacklustrebuildsoverthesecondandthird quarters,regionalstocksofmiddledistillates,
including among others, ultralow sulphur diesel, still the regions liquid heating fuel of choice, remain
historically low. In November, they stood 3.2 mb below last year and 30.8 mb below the fiveyear
average. Following the seasonal destocking of summergrade product and associated switch to the
production of wintergrade product, motor gasoline inventories rebounded by 8.8 mb. By endmonth,
regionalrefinedproductstockscovered28.3daysofforwarddemand,levelwithonemonthearlier.
OECD Americas Crude Oil Stocks
mb
OECD Americas Total Products

Stocks
mb
550
540
530
520
510
500
490
480
470
460
450
740
720
700
680
660
640
620
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
2013
Jan
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
2014
2013
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
2014
Preliminary weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) point to US inventories
defying seasonal trends and soaring by 22.8 mb in December. The upward momentum came from
surgingrefinedproductstocks(+23.2mbmom)as,despitemarginseasing,USrefinershikedrunsbya
16January2015
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
27
OECD S TOCKS
further 460kb/d to 16.4 mb. The bulk of the build came in motor gasoline (+24.0 mb) and middle
distillates(+17.7mb),offsettinga15.0mbdrawinotherproductswhichcameagainstthebackdropof
propane exports hitting new highs exceeding 500 kb/d. The latter build saw the deficit of US middle
distillatesholdingstothefiveyearaveragenearlyhalveto17.0mb.
mb
US Weekly Total Product Stocks
US Weekly Cushing Crude Stocks
mb
800
56
46
750
36
700
26
650
Jan
Source: EIA
Source: EIA
Apr
Jul
Range 2010-2014
Oct
5-yr Average
2014
2015
16
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2010-14
Oct
5-yr Average
2014
2015
Onthecrudeside,stocksattheCushing,Oklahomastoragehub(thedeliverypointoftheNYMEXWTI
contract)extendedrecentbuildsandadded7.5mboverthemonthtostandat32.1mbbythebeginning
ofJanuary.Nonetheless,inventoriesatthehubremain6.3mband8.6mbbelowthefiveyearaverage
andlastyear,respectively.
OECD Europe
OECD European oil inventories rose seasonally by 4.7 mb in November. However, this masked
seasonalitydefying stock movements which largely offset one another. Amid high margins, European
refiners maintained throughputs above yearearlier levels which saw crude stocks drop counter
seasonallyby4.5mb,withstocksofNGLsandotherfeedstocksslippingbyanadditional0.6mb.Onthe
otherhand,highrefineryactivitysawproductholdingsbuildbyasteep9.8mb.Therefore,thedeficitof
refinedproductstoaveragelevelsnarrowedto29.8mbatendmonth,itssmallestsinceSeptember2012.
Builds spanned all product categories except other products, stocks of which fell by 1.8 mb. Notably,
middle distillates inventories surged by 6.3 mb, twice the seasonal average, as European weather
remained warmer than normal. Motor gasoline stocks built by 3.3 mb as regional refiners reportedly
struggledtoplaceproductinothermarketsincludingtheUSAtlanticCoastandAfrica.Alltold,atend
Novemberregionalrefinedproductsholdingscovered39.6daysofforwarddemand,0.5daysaboveend
October.
OECD Europe Crude Oil Stocks
mb
mb
OECD Europe Total Products Stocks
630
610
590
570
550
530
510
490
470
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
2013
Jan
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
2014
2013
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
2014
InformationandmarketreportspertainingtorefinedproductsheldinindependentstorageinNorthwest
Europepointtovolumesapproachinghistoricalhighsbyend2014andreportedlytestingcapacitylimits.
28
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
16January2015
OECD S TOCKS
Nonetheless, preliminary data from Euroilstock indicate a surprising 1.5 mb December draw in refined
productsinEurope15plusNorway.Risingcrudeoilholdings(+1.0mb)providedsomeoffsetwithtotal
oilstocksbuildingby0.4mb
OECD Asia Oceania

CommercialinventoriesinOECDAsiaOceaniafellseasonallyby6.4mbinNovember.Acombined9.4mb
drawincrude,NGLSandfeedstocksmorethanoffseta2.9mbbuildinrefinedproducts.Theretoo,asin
Europe,counterseasonalchangesincrudeandproductstocksprevailed.Crudestocksdrewby7.6mb
on high refinery activity while products built simultaneously by 2.9 mb. Product builds spanned all
categoriesbarfueloil,stocksofwhichdrewby0.9mb.Middledistillatesadded2.7mbonthebackof
unseasonablywarmweather,whichdecreaseddemandforkerosene,theregionsliquidspaceheating
fuel of choice, while stocks of motor gasoline and other products added 0.6 mb and 0.5mb,
respectively.Atendmonth,regionalrefinedproductsholdingscovered20.6daysofforwarddemandat
endmonth,ariseof0.7daysonendOctober.
OECD Asia Oceania Total Products

Stocks
mb
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
mb/d
25
Japan Weekly Kerosene Stocks
20
15
10
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
2013
2014
Source: PAJ
5
Jan
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
Apr
Jul
Oct
Range 2010-14
5-yr Average
2014
2015
Preliminary weekly data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) indicate that Japanese
inventories dropped by 9.9 mb in December, less than the 14.5 mb fiveyear average draw for the
month.Thedrawwascentredoncrudeoil(6.4mb)asrefinerythroughputssoaredbyanother500kb/d.
Despitetheincreaseinrefineryactivity,refinedproductsdrewby4.3mbwithallcategoriesdeclining.
Notably,middledistillatesslippedby1.8mbastheweatherturnedcolderandcombinedwithreportedly
healthyjetkerosenedemandfromtheaviationindustry.Byendmonthjetkeroseneinventoriessatlevel
withthefiveyearaverage.
Recent developments in Singapore and China stocks

China Implied Crude Stock Changes
1.5
1.0
10.5
0.5
10.0
13
11
0.0
9.5
-0.5
9.0
-1.0
8.5
-1.5
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
8.0
Implied 'Other' Stock Change / Statistical Difference

Reported Commercial Stock Change
Refinery Runs (rhs)
Crude Supply (production + net imports) (rhs)
Singapore Weekly Light Distillate

Stocks
mb
15
11.0
9
Source: International Enterprise
7
Jan
2014
Sep
Nov
5-yr Average
2015
According to data from China Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals (China OGP), Chinese commercial crude
inventories decreased by an equivalent 4.6 mb in November (since August 2010 data are reported in
16January2015
May
Jul
Mar
Range 2010-2014
29
OECD S TOCKS
termsofpercentagestockchange).Thedifferencebetweennetcrudesupply(domesticproductionplus
net imports) and refinery runs remained in positive territory in November, signalling an unreported
crudebuildof8.8mb(290kb/d).ThisoilcouldbedestinedforChinasStrategicPetroleumReserveor
commercial storage capacity, which, according to market reports, expanded towards end2014.
Preliminary information suggests that the gap between reported and implied inventory changes may
widenforDecemberasimportssurgedtoarecord7.14mb/d,outstrippingrefineryruns.
Ontheproductsside,stocksdrewbyacombined3.4mbdespitedomesticrefineryrunsremainingabove
10mb for a third successive month. Gasoil led product draws, falling by 2.8 mb while kerosene and
motorgasolineinventoriesdeclinedby0.4mband0.2mb,respectively.Withproductexportsslipping
slightlyduringthemonth,thissuggeststhatthebulkofproductdrawnfromstockswasdestinedforthe
domesticmarket.
Weekly data from International Enterprise indicate that landbased refined products inventories in
Singaporeincheddownby0.1mbinDecember.Totalstockswerepressuredlowerbymiddledistillates
andlight distillates,inventoriesofwhichdecreased by1.2 mband0.5 mb,respectively,whileresidual
fueloilholdingsroseby1.5mb.
30
16January2015
OECD S TOCKS
Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks

(in days of forward demand and million barrels of total oil)
Days1
Americas
Days
Million Barrels
60
mb
1,450
58
1,400
56
1,350
54
1,300
52
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
2013
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
1,250
Jan Mar May
Range 2009-2013
2014
Europe
Days
72
Americas
2013
Sep Nov Jan

Avg 2009-2013
2014
Europe
mb
1,050
70
Jul
1,000
68
950
66
900
64
62
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
2013
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
Jan
Mar May
Range 2009-2013
2014
Asia Oceania
Days
54
850
Jul
2013
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
2014
Asia Oceania
mb
430
52
50
410
48
46
390
44
42
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
2013
Days
61
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
370
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
2014
OECD Total Oil
2013
Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
2014
OECD Total Oil
mb
2,850
2,800
2,750
59
2,700
2,650
57
2,600
2,550
55
Jan
2,500
Mar
May
Jul
Range 2009-2013
2013
Sep
Nov
Jan
Avg 2009-2013
2014
Jan Mar May

Range 2009-2013
2013
Jul
Sep Nov Jan

Avg 2009-2013
2014
1 Days of forw ard demand are based on average demand over the next three months
16January2015
31
P RICES
PRICES
Summary
Oil prices continued to fall in December and into January as rising supplies collided with weak
demandgrowthandOPECmaintaineditscommitmentnottocutproduction.Brentcrudedropped
below $46/bbl in early January, 60% down from a June peak, as markets anticipated further stock
builds. NYMEX WTI held up versus Brent, and at the time of writing the two benchmarks had
recoupedsomeearlierlossesandwerelasttradingnearparityaround$48/bbl.
SpotcrudeoilpriceswerepressuredbysurgingsupplyfromIraq,whichhoistedDecemberoutput
toa35yearhigh,aswellasanincreaseinexportsfromRussia.TopexporterSaudiArabiainearly
January made sharp cuts to its monthly formula prices to Europe in response to falling benchmark
crudepricesandasurgeinsouroilsupply.
SpotproductpricescontinuedtoplummetoverDecembersothatonamonthlyaveragebasisthey
stood between 16% and 26% lower than one month earlier. In absolute terms, middle distillates
postedthesteepestdeclines.Consequently,cracksinthemiddleofthebarrelweakenedatafaster
pacethanelsewhere.
Freightratesforcrudeoilcarrierspostedastrongmonth.Ratesforverylargecrudecarriers(VLCCs)
spikedtoasixyearhighinmidDecemberonstrongeastwardactivity.
$/bbl
Crude Futures
Front Month Close
US $/bbl
120
ICE Brent vs US Dollar Index
Index
94
115
110
92
105
100
90
95
90
88
85
80
86
75
70
84
65
60
82
50
55
45
Jan 14
Source: ICE, NYMEX
Apr 14
Jul 14
NYMEX WTI
Oct 14
Jan 15
ICE Brent
Source: ICE, NYMEX
80
40
78
Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15
ICE Brent
US Dollar DXY Index (inversed RHS)
Market overview
Supplies piled up and weighed on oil prices, with Brent tumbling in early January below $46/bbl its
lowest in nearly six years as markets braced for stock builds. Global benchmarks continued to drop
despiteanescalationofviolencein OPECproducer Libyathatshutkeyoilterminalsandfieldsandcut
output to around 200 kb/d versus 690 kb/d in November. Prices fell heavily after Saudi Arabias oil
ministersaidinDecemberitwasdifficultifnotimpossibleforOPECtocutoutputonitsowntoshore
uppriceswhenthoseoutsidethegroupwereproducingmore.AlialNaimiwasalsoreportedassayingit
wasnotintheinterestofOPECproducerstocuttheirproduction,whateverthepriceis.Oil"maynot"
tradeat$100/bblagain,hesaid.
Addingfurtherpressure,thedollarindexroseforthesixthstraightmonthinDecembermakingdollar
denominated oil more costly for holders of other currencies and less attractive as a currency hedge.
Lower oil prices may in principle boost consumer spending and the world economy by increasing
householddisposableincomeandslashingindustryinputcosts,butoilssharpdropsinceJunehasalso
stokeddeflationaryconcerns.
32
16J ANUARY 2015
P RICES
DecembersawglobalbenchmarksBrentandWTIpostingmonthonmonth(mom)lossesofmorethan
20%, extending earlier declines. ICE Brent futures dropped $16.36/bbl from November to an average
$63.27/bbl in December, for a mom decline of 20.5%. NYMEX WTI plunged $16.52/bbl from
Novembertoanaverage$59.29/bblinDecember,foramomdropof21.8%.Afteraveragingaround
$110/bblfrom2011to2013,ICEBrentatthetimeofwritinghadrecoveredsomeearlierlossesto
tradeat$49.80/bbl.NYMEXWTIheldupversustheNorthSeabenchmarkandwaslasttradingatnear
parityaround$48/bbl.
Prompt Month Oil Futures Prices

(mo nthly and weekly averages, $ /bbl)
Oct
NYMEX
Light Sw eet Crude Oil
RBOB
No.2 Heating Oil
No.2 Heating Oil ($/mmbtu)
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
ICE
Brent
Gasoil
Nov
84.34 75.81
94.61 86.44
106.37 101.33
18.76 17.87
3.80
4.24
Dec
Dec-Nov
Avg Chg
59.29 -16.52
67.96 -18.48
84.38 -16.95
14.88 -2.99
3.51 -0.73
% Week Com m encing:

Chg 08 Dec 15 Dec 22 Dec
-21.8
-21.4
-16.7
-16.7
-17.1
61.11
69.67
86.21
15.20
3.68
55.79
65.27
82.92
14.62
3.63
55.74
64.33
81.62
14.40
3.09
29 Dec
05 Jan
53.42
60.64
77.28
13.63
3.04
48.75
56.59
72.15
12.72
2.91
88.05
79.63
63.27 -16.36
-20.5
64.56
60.55
60.37
57.38
51.29
101.19
94.98
76.87 -18.11
-19.1
78.79
73.77
73.20
70.22
64.68
Prom pt Month Differentials

NYMEX WTI - ICE Brent
-3.71
-3.82
-3.98
-0.16
-3.45
-4.76
-4.63
-3.96
-2.53
NYMEX No.2 Heating Oil - WTI
22.03
25.52
25.09
-0.43
25.10
27.13
25.88
23.86
23.40
NYMEX RBOB - WTI
10.27
10.63
8.67
-1.96
8.56
9.48
8.59
7.22
7.84
NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack (RBOB)

NYMEX No.2 - Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
ICE Gasoil - ICE Brent
14.19
14.96
13.14
15.59
13.64
15.35
14.15
11.37
13.60
-1.45
-2.26
-1.75
14.07
11.53
14.23
15.36
10.99
13.22
14.36
11.31
12.83
12.77
10.59
12.84
13.03
9.81
13.39
So urce: ICE, NYM EX.
Reflecting the loosening supplydemand balance, the NYMEX WTI M1M2 spread widened out to an
average$0.29/bblinDecemberfrom$0.02/bblinNovember,movingmoredecisivelyintoacontango
structurewherepromptoilischeaperthanfuturedeliveries.ByearlyJanuary,thediscountofprompt
month to secondmonth contracts had widened to $0.49/bbl. Brent has been in a solid contango
structuresinceJuly,buttheabundanceofsweetcrudepushedtheNorthSeabenchmarkintoadeeper
contangoof$1/bblinearlyJanuary.TheICEBrentM1M2contractspreadwasatanaverage$0.54/bbl
inDecemberand$0.49/bblinNovember.EarlyJanuarymarkedthefirsttimetheentireoilcomplexof
crudeandproductsshiftedintocontangosince2009.
$/bbl
Crude Futures
Front Month Spreads
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Contango
-1.0
-1.5 Source: ICE, NYMEX
Jan 14
Apr 14
Jul 14
WTI M1-M2
$/bbl
Crude Futures
Forward Spreads
10.5
8.0
Backwardation
5.5
Backwardation
3.0
0.5
-2.0
-4.5
-7.0
Contango
-9.5
Source: ICE, NYMEX
-12.0
Oct 14
Jan 15
Jan 14
Apr 14
Jul 14
Oct 14
Jan 15
Brent M1-M2
WTI M1-M12
Brent M1-M12
Forward curves sank into deeper contango, with the Brent M1M12 contract spread widening in
Decemberto$6.45/bblversus$4.53/bblinNovember.TheWTIM1M12spreadalsoshifteddownto
anaverage$3.88/bblinDecembercomparedto$0.68/bblinNovember.AsteeperdeclineonNYMEX
16J ANUARY 2015
33
P RICES
WTIwidenedthefrontmonthdifferentialtoICEBrenttonearly$4/bblversus$3.82/bblinNovember.
On15January,theNYMEXWTIfrontmonthcontracttradedbrieflyatapremiumtoICEBrent.
$/bbl
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
Jan 14
NYMEX WTI vs ICE Brent
Source: ICE, NYMEX
Apr 14
Jul 14
Oct 14
ICE Brent
Forward Price Curve
$/bbl
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Source: ICE
M1 2
09 Jan 14
09 Dec 14
Jan 15
10 11 12
11 Nov 14
09 Jan 15
Financial markets
Market activity
HedgefundsappearedtotakeaslightlymoreoptimisticstancetowardsICEBrentinDecember,astheir
longtoshort ratio, an overall indicator of market sentiment, regained some previously lost ground,
havingpeakedinMay2014onthebackofcollapsingoilprices.Theirpartialrebound,followingasteep
plunge,suggestsfundsmaynowseeapricerecoveryassomewhatmorelikely.Thelongtoshortratio
neverthelessremainsatlowlevelsfortheyear,andthefundsoverallmaintainacautiousstance.Option
contracts now make up to 35% of Brent open interest and funds spreading positions are at alltime
highs,bothsignsofheighteneduncertaintyonthefutureahead.FundsnetpositioninginNYMEXWTI
remainedstable,withaslightlymorebullishuptickinlateDecember.
$/bbl
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Oct 11
ICE Brent vs Money Managers

Long/Short ratio
Jul 12
Apr 13
ICE Brent
Jan 14
Oct 14
Long/Short ratio
'000
contracts
300
L/S
$/bbl
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
110
2.2
100
2.0
90
1.8
80
1.6
70
1.4
60
50
Oct 12
ICE Brent Money Managers

Long, shot and spreading contracts
'000
contracts
1.2
Apr 13
WTI
Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14

Long/Short ratio
NYMEX WTI vs ICE Brent

Open interest difference
1,000
250
750
0.8
500
0.6
100
250
0.4
50
200
150
0
Dec 11
Sep 12
Spreading
34
NYMEX WTI vs Money Managers

Long/short ratio
L/S
Jun 13
Mar 14
Short
Dec 14
Long
-250
Dec 12
Jun 13
Futures only
0.2
Source: ICE, CFTC

Brent = 0
0
Dec 13
Jun 14
Dec 14
Futures and options
16J ANUARY 2015
P RICES
ThenumberofoutstandingICEBrentfuturecontractsheldaboveNYMEXWTIthroughoutDecember.It
is the first time that this happens for a sustained period. The gap in open interest between the two
contractshasbeencontinuouslynarrowing,astraderslookatBrentastheglobalbenchmarkforcrude
prices. The gap is narrowing even faster when accounting both future and option contracts. This is a
departurefromestablishedpatterns,astheWTIoptionsmarkethadtraditionallybeensignificantlymore
activethanthatinBrentoptions.
Financial regulation
The US Federal Reserve extended the deadline for banks to liquidate their stakes in hedge funds and
variousfundsunderthesocalledVolckerRulebytwoyearsto2017,followingbanksclaimsthatselling
those stakes quickly could require them do so at a discount. The July 2015 deadline was maintained
howeverfortheotherpillaroftheVolckerRule,thebanksbanfromproprietarytrading.
The US Commodities Futures Trading Commission has reopened the comment period on its proposed
ruleonspeculativepositionlimitsfor45days,until22January.Thefinalruleisexpectedinspring2015.
The EU Commission published the list of nonEU countries whose regulatory requirements for central
clearing are at least equivalent to EU ones. NonEU Central clearing counterparties still need to be
recognisedbyEUauthorities,inordertoavoidhighercapitalrequirements.Thecompliancedeadlinehas
been pushed back from 15 December 2014 to 15 June 2015, to allow more time for the CCPs
authorisationprocess.
Spot crude oil prices

AsurgeinIraqisupplytothehighestlevelsince1979andanincreaseinRussianexportflowsweighedon
spot markets. Further disruptions to Libyan supply have knocked output down towards 200kb/d now
versus440kb/dinDecember,butmarketshavepaidscantattentiongiventheabundanceofalternatives
onoffer.
Globalbenchmarksbuckledundertheweightofplentifulsupplies.Assellersstruggledtofindoutletsfor
their crude Nigerian barrels were especially difficult to place some oil companies reportedly were
consideringthepossibilityofhiringtankerstostoreoilatsea.
$/bbl
Benchmark Crude Prices
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55 Copyright2014ArgusMedia
50
45
Dec 13
Mar 14
Jun 14
Sep 14
Dec 14
$/bbl
Crude Prices
Prompt Month Differentials
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Copyright2014ArgusMediaLtd
-2.0
Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14
North Sea M1 - M2
Dubai M1 - M2
Sep 14 Dec 14
WTI M1 - M2
WTI Cushing
N. Sea Dated
Dubai
Dated Brent sank to $62.57/bbl during December, a loss of $16.37/bbl versus November. By early
January, the North Sea grade had plunged to $49.46/bbl, its lowest since April 2009, as loading
programmessuggestedsuppliesofitscomponentgradesBrent,Forties,OsebergandEkofiskwould
increaseinFebruary.USWTIdropped$16.87/bbltoaverage$59.47/bblduringDecember.MiddleEast
benchmarkDubaifell$16.17/bblfromNovembertoanaverage$60.22/bbl.
16J ANUARY 2015
35
P RICES
RussianUralstookthebiggesthit,losing$17.58/bblversusNovembertoaverage$61.34/bbl.InEurope,
an uptick in anticipated loadings of sour Urals crude for January weakened differentials for the grade
versusDatedBrent.Uralsisnowtradingatroughly$2/bblunderDatedBrent.Exporttariffadjustments
encouragedRussianproducerstodelayloadingsofUralscrudetoJanuaryfromDecember.
$/bbl
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
-4.0
Dec 13
Urals
Differentials to North Sea Dated
$/bbl
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Dec 13
Mar 14
Jun 14
Urals (NWE)
Sep 14
Dec 14
Urals (Med)
North Africa Crude Prices
Mar 14
Suez Blend
Jun 14
Sep 14
Dec 14
Saharan Blend
Es Sider
IncreasedshipmentsofIraqicrudeaddedtothedownsidepressure.ExportsfromIraqroseto2.95mb/d
in December, with Basra Light loadings hitting a record of nearly 2.8 mb/d thanks to reductions in
weatherrelated delays and a more effective use of export infrastructure (see Supply). An agreement
between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government has helped boost Iraqi exports from the
TurkishMediterraneanportofCeyhantoaround300kb/dinJanuary.
In an apparent response to falling benchmark crude prices and a surge of sour oil supply to Europe,
SaudiAramcoinearlyJanuarymadesharpcutstoitsofficialsellingpricesforcrudeliftinginFebruaryfor
Europe.FordeliveriesintotheMediterranean,AramcowidenedthediscountofArabExtraLightversus
theICEBrentweightedaverage(BWAVE)by$2.10/bbltoa$3.10/bbl.
SaudiArabiaincreasedthepremiumofcrudesloadingforAsiainFebruaryversustheaverageofOman
andDubaiby$0.55$0.70/bbl,aftercuttingpricesby$1.50$1.90/bblthepreviousmonth.Riyadhmade
modestcutstoitspricestotheUS.ThechangesreflectSaudiAramcosdeterminationtokeepitsprices
competitiveinordertosustainitsmarketshare.TheUSimported826kb/dofSaudicrudeinOctober,
downfrom1.58mb/dinApril.RiyadhalsolostmarketshareinChinaafterabsolutevolumesfell.
$/bbl
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
Dec 13
North Sea Dated vs. Dubai
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Dec 12
Mar 14
Jun 14
Sep 14
Dec 14
Dubai Mth1 - North Sea Dated
Saudi official selling prices
$/bbl
Jun 13
Dec 13
Ar M to ASCII (US)
Ar L to Dubai (AS)
Jun 14
Dec 14
Ar L to Bwave
SellersofNigeriancrudehavemeanwhilefounditdifficulttoplacetheirbarrelsintoAsiaduetosluggish
demand,highfreightratesandlowerMiddleEastcrudeoilprices.QuaIboefelltoitslowestlevelagainst
DatedBrentsinceApril2009.
36
16J ANUARY 2015
P RICES
US Gulf coast crudes have fallen against WTI on expectations that refinery maintenance will increase
crudestocks.AdropindemanddepressedCanadianheavysourcrudeWesternCanadaSelect.
Spot Crude Oil Prices and Differentials
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: http://www.iea.org/w/omrss/default.aspx
Spot product prices

Product prices continued to plummet over December so that on a monthly average basis they stood
between16%and26%lowerthanonemonthearlier.Inpercentage terms,spotpricesforproducts in
the middle of the barrel posted the smallest declines after support came from a seasonal uptick in
demandforheatingfuelsandjetkerosene.Productsatthetopandbottomofthebarrelweakenedata
fasterpaceasfundamentalsremainedlooserthaninthemiddleofthebarrel.Nonetheless,inabsolute
terms,middledistillatespostedthesteepestdeclinesacrossthebarrelduetotheirhigherpriceswhich
sawcracksinthemiddleofthebarrelweakenatafasterpacethanelsewhere.
$/bbl
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
Oct 13
Naphtha
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes
$/bbl
30
25
Diesel Fuel
20
15
10
Jan 14 Apr 14
NWE
Med
Jul 14 Oct 14
SP
ME Gulf
Jan 15
5
Oct 13
Jan 14 Apr 14
NWE ULSD
Med ULSD
Jul 14
Oct 14 Jan 15
USGC ULSD
SP Gasoil 0.05%
Spotpricesonthe USGulfCoastsawthesteepestfallsasrefinerstherecontinuedtorun atveryhigh

rateswhichpushedextraproductontoanalreadysaturatedmarketandsawstocks,particularlyoflight
and middle distillates balloon. These losses outstripped the drop in LLS and saw cracks plummet. A
notableexceptioncamefromNo63%fueloilwhichhelditspriceinabsolutetermsbetterthanother
products,consequentlyitscrackfirmedby$2.38/bblinDecember.
16J ANUARY 2015
37
P RICES
Spot Product Prices
Table Unavailable
Available in the subscription version.
To subscribe, visit: http://www.iea.org/w/omrss/default.aspx
AbrightspotinEuropecamefromnaphthacrackswhichpostedmomgainsonhealthydemandfrom
regional gasoline blenders and an open arbitrage to ship product to Asia. Cracks also improved at the
bottom of the barrel as, despite a change in bunker fuel specifications in the Northern European ECA,
RotterdamLSFOfueloilcracksimprovedby$0.55/bblonamonthlyaveragebasis.Upwardmomentum
came from fewer imports of Russian product and healthy trade to Asia. In the Mediterranean, fuel oil
cracksfirmedbyover$1/bblonexporttoAsia.
$/bbl
Low-Sulphur Fuel Oil (1%)

$/bbl
High-Sulphur Fuel Oil

10
5
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-25
-20
-25
Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14
NWE LSFO 1%
Indonesia LSWR
Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15

Med LSFO 1%
-30
Oct 11 Jun 12 Feb 13
NWE HSFO 3.5%
SP HSFO 380 4%
Oct 13 Jun 14
Med HSFO 3.5%
ProductpricesinSingaporegenerallyremainedhigherthanelsewhereoncomparativelybuoyantAsian
demand, which helped draw in product from the Middle East and Europe. However, cracks remained
relatively muted as Dubai prices fell less than those of other crudes on an absolute basis. The one
exceptionwastheLSWRcrackwhichsurgedby$3.72/bblmom,itshighestlevelinover12months.
38
16J ANUARY 2015
P RICES
Freight
Cruderateshadaverystrongmonth,particularlyforlargercarriers.Verylargecrudecarriers(VLCCs)on
thebenchmarkMiddleEasttoAsiaroutespikedtoafouryearhighinmidDecember.Averagepricesfor
themonthjumpedtoasixyearhigh.Therateeasedinthelastweekofthemonth,asactivityslowed
down. Rates for Suezmaxes leaving West Africa had another strong month, particularly in the second
half, reportedly on traders fixing ahead of holidays, although overall the December rate was slightly
lowerthanpreviousmonthspeaks.AframaxesintheNorthSeaalsohadastrongmonth,withloadings
attheirhighestinthreeyears.Healthyactivityandpreholidayfixingproppedratestotheirhighestsince
July2014.
Daily Crude Tanker Rates
US$/mt
35
Middle East Gulf

crude loadings
mb/d
30
14.0
25
13.5
20
13.0
15
12.5
10
12.0
5
0
Jun-13
Dec-13
130Kt WAF - USGC

80Kt UK - UK cont
Jun-14
VLCC MEG-Asia
100Kt Baltic - UK
3.0
2.5
11.0
Jan 11
Dec-14
Source: LLoyd'sListIntelligence
Jan 12
Jan 13
Eastwards
4.0
3.5
11.5
mb/d
2.0
Jan 14
Westwards
Surveyed product freight rates generally trended down throughout the month, although the monthly
average was up on November. Rates for 37Kt UK US Atlantic product vessels remained sustained in
December by arbitrage opportunities for shipping gasoline to the US Atlantic coast and diesel back to
Europe,buteasedinearlyJanuaryonthebackofnarrowingspreads,asbothsidesoftheAtlanticwere
wellsuppliedwithproducts(seeProductprices).Theproductrateforthe38KtCaribbeanUSAtlantic
routealsohadastrongerDecember,althoughgraduallytrendingdown,tofinallybegin2015belowits
recentpeaks.IntheEast,the75KtMiddleEastGulftoJapanbenchmarkrouteeasedasthetonnagelist
builtfasterthanactivitythroughoutthemonth.Theratenowsitsatitslowestinsixmonths.
Daily Product Tanker Rates
US$/mt
40
$/bbl
25
35
20
30
UK-New York Harbour

ULSD and gasoline arbitrage
$/mt
40
35
25
15
30
20
10
25
15
20
10
15
5
Jun-13
Dec-13
38Kt Carib - USAC
75Kt MEG - Jap
16J ANUARY 2015
Jun-14
Dec-14
37Kt UKC - USAC

30Kt SP - Jap
-5
Jun 14
Aug 14
Oct 14
ULSD spread
37Kt freight rate
10
Dec 14
Gasoline spread
39
R EFINING
REFINING
Summary
GlobalrefinerycrudethroughputssurgedtonewhighsinDecember,reaching78.9mb/d,according
topreliminarydata.A370kb/dmonthlyincreaseextendedNovembersgainsof1.5mb/d,asplants
returned from seasonal maintenance, with stronger than expected runs in the US and OECD Asia
Oceania.Asaresult,theestimateofglobalrefinerycrudethroughputsfor4Q14hasbeenraisedby
0.2mb/dsincelastmonthsReport,to78.2mb/d.
Globalrefinerycruderunsaresettofallto77.8mb/din1Q15,inlinewithseasonallyfallingdemand
and increased refinery maintenance. Burgeoning product holdings and deteriorating margins will
likelyamplifythedeclinesinmaturemarkets,asnewcapacityinthenonOECDcontinuestorampup.
Annualgainsaresettoeaseto1.0mb/din1Q15comparedwithgainsof2.2mb/din4Q14.
PlummetingrefinerymarginsinDecemberwilllikelycauserefinerstoscalebackrunsinearly2015,
especially in the US. Calculated US Midcontinent margins plunged by $9.65/bbl on average in
Decembertoendthemonthinnegativeterritory,asthroughputssurgedonthebackofrisingcrude
supplies. Gulf Coast margins also retreated on rising product inventories. European and Singapore
marginssawmoremodestdeclinesandremainedwellabovelevelsseenayearearlier.
OECDrefinerycrudethroughputssurged1.3mb/dinNovember,to37.5mb/d.Gainsstemmedfrom
boththeAmericasandAsiaOceania,asrefinerscompletedmaintenance,whileEuropeanrateswere
unchangedfromOctober.TotalOECDrunsstood865kb/dabovethepreviousyear,thankslargelyto
arecoveryinEuropeanratesfromweak2013levels.
mb/d
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
Jan
Global Refining
mb/d
Crude Throughput
2.5
Global Throughputs vs. Demand

Annual growth
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Mar
May
Range 09-13
2013
2014
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 09-13
2014 est.
2015 est.
- 0.5
1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15
Crude Runs
Oil Product Demand
Global refinery overview

Despite lacklustre economic and oildemand growth, global refinery activity remained exceptionally
robustthroughyearend,and4Q14estimateshavebeenliftedby235kb/dsincelastmonthsReport.At
78.2mb/d,globalcruderunsstoodmorethan2mb/daboveyearearlierlevelsin4Q14,comparedwith
oilproductdemandgrowthofonly0.6mb/d.
The sharp plunge in crude oil prices since June has provided a welcome boost to refiners across the
globe. Product price declines have generally lagged those of crude, providing refiners with an
opportunity, however shortlived, to capture higher margins. Refiners in the US and Europe raised
throughputsbynearly1mb/dintotalin2H14fromayearearlier.USrefinersliftedthroughputstofresh
recordhighs in early December, while European refiners took advantage of margins rising threefold
sinceJunetoraiserunstolevelsnotseeninmorethanayear.
40
16J ANUARY 2014
R EFINING
NonOECD refiners also pushed runs higher at the end of 2014. After contracting for four consecutive
quarters, nonOECD Asian throughputs finally recovered towards yearend. Shuttered capacity in India
camebackonlineandSingaporestartedanewcondensatesplitter.Chineserefinersalsoincreasedruns,
byalmost0.5mb/dfromayearearlier,inparttorestockdepletedproductinventories.Therampingup
of Saudi Arabias two new megaprojects underpinned Middle Eastern gains, while Russian refiners
maintained high rates to take advantage of a favourable export duty scheme before its expiration at
yearend.
Global Refinery Crude Throughput1

Sep 14 3Q2014 Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14 4Q2014
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
1Q2015
Apr 15
18.4
18.2
11.3
11.0
Americas
18.9
19.4
18.1
18.9
19.4
18.8
18.8
18.4
18.2
Europe
11.6
11.7
11.8
11.8
11.7
11.8
11.4
11.3
11.2
Asia Oceania
6.5
6.6
6.2
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.6
6.7
6.3
Total OECD
37.0
37.6
36.2
37.5
37.9
37.2
37.0
36.5
35.9
36.4
35.6
FSU
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.1
7.2
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
6.8
Non-OECD Europe
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
10.2
9.9
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.3
10.3
10.1
10.1
10.2
10.0
China
Other Asia
9.9
9.7
10.0
10.0
9.9
10.0
10.0
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.1
Latin America
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.4
4.7
4.6
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
Middle East
6.0
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.6
Africa
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Total Non-OECD
40.4
40.3
40.9
41.1
41.1
41.0
41.5
41.4
41.3
41.4
40.9
Total
77.4
77.9
77.1
78.6
78.9
78.2
78.4
77.8
77.2
77.8
76.5
1 Preliminary and estimated runs based on capacity, know n outages, economic run cuts and global demand forecast
Thesehighrefineryrunshaveledtoasignificantbuildinproductinventoriesinkeymarkets.USproduct
stocks swelled by more than 23mb/d in December, while independent storage levels in Northwest
Europe reportedly surged to threeyear highs. Product stocks normally draw during the northern
hemispherewinter.Notsurprisingly,refinerymarginsfellinDecember,asproductpricescaughtupwith
earliercrudepricedeclines.
ThedropinrefinerymarginswasparticularlypronouncedintheUS,whereMidcontinentrefinerslostan
average $9.65/bbl from December, and Gulf Coast refiners shed $2.07/bbl on average. Midcontinent
refiners briefly saw negative returns in late December, as US product price declines were particularly
steep.
$/bbl
30.0
US Gulf Coast Refining Margins
$/bbl
20.0
US Midcontinent Refining Margins
15.0
20.0
10.0
5.0
10.0
0.0
-5.0
DataSource: IEA/KBC
0.0
Dec 13
Mar 14
Jun 14
WTI Cracking
Bakken Cracking
WCS/Bakken Cok.
16J ANUARY 2014
Sep 14
Dec 14
WCS/Bakken Cr.
WTI Coking
Bakken Coking
-10.0
Dec 13
Mar 14
Jun 14
Mars Cracking
ASCI Coking
Sep 14
Dec 14
HLS/LLS Cra.
Maya/Mars Cok.
41
R EFINING
GulfCoastcrackingmarginshavebeennegativeforcertaingradessometimenow,withcokingmargins
faringonlyslightlybetter.USrefineryrunsareexpectedtofallsharplyfromJanuary,inlinewithseasonal
patterns. Over the past five years, US refinery crude intake dropped by on average 570kb/d from
December to January. Swelling product inventories and weak margins, despite signs of recovering
USdemand growth, will likely result in a steep drop in runs in January, and we project a 710 kb/d
monthly decline for this year. Indeed, weekly EIA data for the week ending 9 January show total
USrefineryrunsdropped530kb/dfromaweekearlier.
Also in Europe, weak regional and export demand depressed product cracks in December, though
margins remained high compared to recent levels. As such, refiners maintained runs at relatively high
levels through yearend. Singapore margins saw more modest declines and in general held up better
thanformostoftheyear,supportingslightlyhigherrunstowardsyearend.
$/bbl
10.0
Northwest Europe Refining Margins
$/bbl
10.0
7.5
7.5
5.0
5.0
2.5
2.5
0.0
0.0
-2.5
-2.5
-5.0
-7.5
Singapore Refining Margins
-5.0
Data Source: IEA/KBC
-10.0
Dec 13
Mar 14
Jun 14
Brent Cracking
Urals Cracking
Sep 14
Dec 14
DataSource: IEA/KBC
-7.5
Dec 13
Brent HS
Urals HS
Mar 14
Jun 14
Dubai Cracking
Tapis Cracking
Sep 14
Dec 14
Dubai HS
Tapis HS
The timing and speed of the rampup of new nonOECD capacity in 2015 will be key to wider refinery
marketmovementsin2015.SaudiArabias400kb/dYanburefineryandthefirstphaseofBrazilsfirst
newrefineryin35yearshavealreadybeencommissionedandwillcontinuetoincreaserunsincoming
months.PetrobrasreportedlyshippeditsfirstnaphthacargoinearlyJanuary,whileYanbufollowedsuit
loading a diesel cargo midmonth. The UAEs 420 kb/d Ruwais extension and Indias much delayed
300kb/d Paradip refinery, and the restart of Colombias expanded Cartagena plant, should also
commence crude processing in coming months if all goes well. With product inventories rebuilding
counterseasonallyandoildemandprojectedtofallseasonally,marginswillremainunderpressureinthe
nearterm.
mb/d
OECD vs. Non-OECD Crude Runs
42.0
40.0
38.0
36.0
34.0
32.0
30.0
1Q04
Global Crude Throughputs
mb/d
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Annual Change
1Q13
1Q06
1Q08
OECD
1Q10
1Q12
1Q14
Non-OECD
3Q13
Americas
China
Latin America
1Q14
Europe
Other Asia
Other
3Q14
1Q15
Asia Oceania
Middle East
GlobalrefinerycruderunsareexpectedtodeclinethroughAprilasrefinerymaintenanceintensifies.Inall,
globalthroughputsarepeggedat77.8mb/dfor1Q15,395kb/dlessthanthe4Q14averageand1mb/d
aboveayearearlier.GrowthwillagainbeconcentratedinnonOECDcountries,extendingrecenttrends.
42
16J ANUARY 2014
R EFINING
IEA/KBCGlobalIndicatorRefiningMargins1
($/bbl)
Monthly Average
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Brent (Cracking)
5.86
4.56
5.93
3.68
Urals (Cracking)
6.42
5.04
6.24
Brent (Hydroskimming)
0.38
-0.69
Urals (Hydroskimming)
0.05
Es Sider (Cracking)
Urals (Cracking)
Change
Average for w eek ending:
Dec 14-Nov 14
12 Dec
19 Dec
26 Dec
02 Jan
09 Jan
-2.25
4.12
3.24
3.99
3.20
4.87
4.86
-1.38
5.34
4.44
5.24
4.87
6.24
0.13
-0.98
-1.11
-0.36
-1.42
-0.73
-1.45
0.26
-1.01
-0.39
-0.71
-0.31
-0.07
-1.10
-0.42
-0.63
0.82
8.11
6.90
7.44
6.63
-0.80
6.89
6.42
6.94
6.37
8.04
7.37
5.89
6.71
6.10
-0.61
6.23
5.91
7.10
6.48
7.98
Es Sider (Hydroskimming)
3.18
1.78
1.67
1.53
-0.13
1.91
1.28
1.81
1.34
3.14
Urals (Hydroskimming)
0.20
-1.36
-1.42
-1.38
0.04
-1.08
-1.64
-0.48
-0.92
0.78
50/50 HLS/LLS (Cracking)
10.63
5.62
3.94
1.15
-2.79
2.38
1.72
-1.40
-0.38
2.05
Mars (Cracking)
4.59
0.19
-0.87
-2.42
-1.55
-1.88
-1.55
-4.02
-2.51
-0.53
ASCI (Cracking)
4.72
0.24
-1.01
-2.29
-1.28
-1.86
-1.63
-3.36
-2.19
-0.38
50/50 HLS/LLS (Coking)
12.41
7.22
5.82
2.64
-3.18
3.91
3.32
-0.19
1.06
3.70
50/50 Maya/Mars (Coking)
7.24
4.32
3.56
2.57
-0.99
3.13
3.79
0.85
2.56
5.46
ASCI (Coking)
9.01
5.59
4.92
2.29
-2.63
3.04
3.22
0.33
2.02
4.74
NWEurope
Mediterranean
USGulfCoast
USMidcon
16.84
12.65
12.73
4.33
-8.41
6.19
4.44
2.35
-0.69
1.82
30/70 WCS/Bakken (Cracking) 20.36
15.88
15.93
7.95
-7.97
10.17
7.73
5.72
3.65
6.87
Bakken (Cracking)
24.11
20.35
20.25
9.61
-10.64
12.07
9.24
6.79
4.37
8.74
WTI (Coking)
19.13
14.93
15.60
6.15
-9.45
8.11
6.26
3.95
0.68
3.34
30/70 WCS/Bakken (Coking)
23.35
20.10
21.60
11.33
-10.26
13.78
11.14
8.75
6.14
9.82
Bakken (Coking)
24.88
21.14
21.33
10.23
-11.10
12.74
9.90
7.35
4.83
9.31
-0.72
-1.98
1.02
0.62
-0.40
0.26
0.15
1.00
0.66
1.13
WTI (Cracking)
Singapore
Dubai (Hydroskimming)
Tapis (Hydroskimming)
3.42
1.97
3.48
3.94
0.46
4.18
3.42
5.13
4.67
5.86
Dubai (Hydrocracking)
4.50
3.66
6.51
5.84
-0.67
5.32
5.71
6.45
6.01
6.21
Tapis (Hydrocracking)
5.81
5.58
7.08
6.49
-0.58
6.53
5.99
7.77
7.16
8.01
1GlobalIndicatorRefiningMarginsarecalculatedforvariouscomplexityconfigurations,eachoptimisedforprocessingthespecificcrude(s)inaspecificrefining
centre.Marginsincludeenergycost,butexcludeothervariablecosts,depreciationandamortisation.Consequently,reportedmarginsshouldbetakenasan
indication,orproxy,ofchangesinprofitabilityforagivenrefiningcentre.Noattemptismadetomodelorotherwisecommentupontherelativeeconomicsof
specificrefineriesrunningindividualcrudeslatesandproducingcustomproductsales,norarethesecalculationsintendedtoinferthemarginalvaluesofcrude
forpricingpurposes.
Source:IEA,KBCAdvancedTechnologies(KBC)
OECD refinery throughput

OECD refinery throughputs rebounded in November, by 1.3mb/d from Octobers low, to average
37.5mb/d. Higherthanexpected throughputs in Asia Oceania led to an upward revision of 260kb/d
fromlastmonthsReport.TheAmericasledthemonthlygainwithanincreaseof815kb/d,followedby
theOECDAsiaOceaniaregion,whichsawgainsof490kb/d,whileEuropeanrefinerskeptrunsroughly
unchangedfromthepreviousmonth.OverallOECDrefineryactivityheldontoannualgainsseensince
August, processing almost 0.9 mb/d more crude than a year earlier in the latest month. Only in Asia
OceaniadidthroughputscontractyearonyearinNovember,whilerefinersintheAmericasandEurope
reported annual gains of 305 kb/d and 680 kb/d, respectively. After years of contractions, European
plantsliftedthroughputsforafourthconsecutivemonth,onthebackofsignificantlyimprovedmargins.
16J ANUARY 2014
43
R EFINING
Refinery Crude Throughput and Utilisation in OECD Countries

Change from
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Oct 14
Utilisation rate1
Nov 13
Nov 14
Nov 13
15.82
16.53
16.46
16.06
15.34
16.07
0.73
0.43
0.90
0.87
Canada
1.86
1.76
1.76
1.45
1.54
1.63
0.10
-0.06
0.89
0.92
Chile
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.17
0.01
0.02
0.76
0.69
Mexico
1.22
1.18
1.15
1.19
1.09
1.08
-0.02
-0.09
0.65
0.70
19.07
19.64
19.55
18.88
18.13
18.95
0.81
0.31
0.88
0.86
France
1.05
1.16
1.21
1.18
1.19
1.14
-0.05
0.00
0.81
0.81
Germany
1.63
1.80
1.99
1.90
1.82
1.93
0.11
-0.04
0.95
0.97
Italy
1.19
1.25
1.31
1.21
1.14
1.27
0.12
-0.06
0.72
0.74
Netherlands
0.90
0.95
0.98
1.05
1.11
1.04
-0.07
0.12
0.81
0.71
Spain
1.23
1.17
1.27
1.10
1.21
1.19
-0.02
0.13
0.78
0.70
United Kingdom
1.05
1.13
1.14
1.15
1.15
1.12
-0.02
0.13
0.81
0.63
Other OECD Europe
3.76
4.03
4.06
3.99
4.20
4.15
-0.05
0.40
0.85
0.77
10.81
11.49
11.96
11.59
11.82
11.84
0.03
0.68
0.83
0.77
Japan
2.52
2.96
3.14
3.17
2.89
3.20
0.30
-0.14
0.80
0.75
South Korea
2.43
2.59
2.70
2.52
2.53
2.65
0.12
0.05
0.80
0.85
Other Asia Oceania
0.86
0.90
0.92
0.84
0.83
0.89
0.06
-0.03
0.81
0.75
5.81
6.45
6.76
6.53
6.25
6.74
0.49
-0.12
0.80
0.79
35.69
37.57
38.26
37.00
36.20
37.52
1.33
0.86
0.85
0.82
US2
OECD Am ericas
OECD Europe
OECD Asia Oceania

OECD Total
1 Expressed as a percentage, based o n crude thro ughput and current o perable refining capacity
2 US50
3 OECD A mericas includes Chile and OECD A sia Oceania includes Israel. OECD Euro pe includes Slo venia and Esto nia, tho ugh neither co untry has a refinery
ThroughputslooktohavesurgedfurtherinDecember,butsharpseasonaldeclinesareforecastfor1Q15.
OECDrefineryrunsnormallyseeseasonaldropsbetweenDecemberandJanuary.Amonthlydeclineof
0.9mb/d is forecast in January 2015, compared with a fiveyear average decline of 0.7 mb/d, as
burgeoningproductinventoriesandasteepdropinmarginsamplifytheseasonalchange.OECDrefinery
runs generally fall further through 1Q, as maintenance intensifies. In all, we forecast OECD runs to
average36.4mb/din1Q15,adeclineof0.8mb/dfrom4Q14,butstill175kb/dabove1Q14.
mb/d
39
OECD Total
Annual Change
1.5
38
1.0
37
0.5
36
0.0
35
-0.5
34
Jan
OECD Crude Throughputs
mb/d
Crude Throughput
-1.0
Mar
May
Range 09-13
2013
2014
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 09-13
2014 est.
2015 est.
-1.5
1Q13
3Q13
Americas
1Q14
Europe
3Q14
1Q15
Asia Oceania
Refinery throughputs in the OECD Americas rose by 810 kb/d in November, to 18.9mb/d. The
USaccountedfor90%oftheincrease,withCanadacontributing100kb/d.Canadianrefineryrunshave
beensubduedsinceSeptember,whenanumberofrefineriesshutformaintenancework.Accordingto
weeklydatafromtheNationalEnergyBoard(NEB),Canadiancrudeprocessingreboundedto1.6mb/din
44
16J ANUARY 2014
R EFINING
November, compared with 1.5 mb/d in September and October. The rampup continued through
December, with runs reaching 1.7mb/d in the second half of the month. Suncor announced in early
January it had completed maintenance of its Montreal refinery, which had been underway since
22September. Suncor also performed maintenance at its Sarnia and Edmonton plants over the past
months,asdidShellatitsSarniarefinery.ImperialOilstarteddecommissioningitsDartmouthrefineryin
EasternCanadainSeptember
OECD Americas
mb/d
20.0
US Weekly Refinery Throughput
mb/d
Crude Throughput
17
19.5
16
19.0
18.5
15
18.0
17.5
14
17.0
Jan
13
Source: EIA
Mar
May
Jul
Range 09-13
2013
2014
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 09-13
2014 est.
2015 est.
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2010-14
2014
Oct
5-yr Average
2015
In the US, runs rose in all regions except the East Coast in November, with the steepest gains in the
GulfCoast followed by the Midcontinent, which raised runs by 470 kb/d and 200 kb/d, respectively.
PreliminaryweeklydatashowthatUSrefinersfinished2014onahighnote,matchingJulysrecordhigh
of16.6mb/dinthefirstweekofDecember.Forthemonthasawhole,crudethroughputswereattheir
secondhighestever,averaging16.4mb/d,anincreaseof325kb/dfromNovemberand325kb/dabove
the previous year. As in November, the monthly increase stemmed from Gulf Coast and Midcontinent
refiners,whoraisedrunsby100kb/dand215kb/d,respectively.
US throughputs are expected to decline sharply in January, with the fall exceeding seasonal trends, as
Decemberscollapseinmarginswilllikelyamplifymaintenanceshutdowns.Amongstothers,Phillips66is
shutting some units at its 356 kb/d Wood River refinery for maintenance. The refinery, which is a JV
between Phillips 66 and Cenovus but operated by Phillips 66, imports around 180 kb/d of heavy
Canadian crude. On the Gulf Coast, Exxon started maintenance at its 557 kb/d Baytown refinery in
JanuaryandPhillips66isundertakingworkatits250kb/dBelleChasseplantinLouisiana.
Additionally, a string of unplanned outages in January also contributed to take runs lower in January.
Philadelphia Energy Solutions had to shut its 335 kb/d refinery for several days after a series of
operational issues and small fires. Fires caused both Husky Energy to shut its 155 kb/d Lima, Ohio
refinery, and Marathon to halt operations at its 212 kb/d Robison, Illinois refinery. BP, meanwhile,
reportedlyhadtoshuta90kb/dcrudeunitatitsWhiting,Indianaplantduetofreezingtemperatures.
mb/d
4.0
US Midcontinent Refinery Runs
US Gulf Coast Refinery Runs
mb/d
9.0
3.8
8.5
3.6
8.0
3.4
7.5
3.2
7.0
3.0
6.5
Source: EIA
2.8
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2010-2014
Oct
5-yr Average
2014
2015
16J ANUARY 2014
Source: EIA
6.0
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2010-2014
Oct
5-yr Average
2014
2015
45
R EFINING
InEurope,refinerscontinuedtobenefitfromanimprovementinmarginstokeeprunsrelativelyhighin
November. Higher German and Italian refinery runs were mostly offset by declines elsewhere, leaving
regional runs roughly unchanged on the month, at 11.8 mb/d. Regional throughputs exceeded year
earlier levels for a fourth consecutive month, with runs up 680 kb/d yoy in the latest monthly data.
Preliminary data released by Euroilstocks on 12 January show refiners maintained runs at relatively
elevatedlevelsinDecember,withtotalcrudethroughputsnowpeggedat11.7mb/d,only175kb/dless
than in November. Regional refinery activity is expected to slip further in early 2015, as the regions
demandcontractfurtherandnewcapacityhikesproductsexportstotheregion.Whileregionalrunsslip
to 11.3mb/d on average in 1Q15, from 11.8mb/d in 4Q14, they are expected to surpass yearearlier
levelsinearly2015(thoughannualgrowthslipsfrom935kb/donaveragein4Q14to155kb/din1Q15).
OECD Europe
mb/d
13.0
12.5
Crude Throughput
7.0
12.0
6.5
11.5
11.0
6.0
10.5
10.0
Jan
OECD Asia Oceania
mb/d
7.5
Crude Throughput
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Range 09-13
2013
2014
Nov
5.5
Jan
Jan
Average 09-13
2014 est.
2015 est.
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Range 09-13
2013
2014 est.
Nov
Jan
Average 09-13
2014
2015 est.
Refiners in OECD Asia Oceania increased runs by 0.5 mb/d in November, to 6.7 mb/d on average. The
gainscameprimarilyfromJapan,whichhadseensharpmaintenancecutsthepreviousmonth,butalso
South Korea, which hiked throughputs by 125 kb/d. According to preliminary data, Japanese refiners
liftedrunsfurtherinDecember,by200kb/d,toaveragejustunder3.4mb/d,adjustedforNGLsincluded
inthepreliminarydata.InDecember,capacityutilisationstoodabove90%ofits3.95mb/dnameplate
capacity,comparedwithabout88%thepreviousmonth.
Non-OECD refinery throughput

NonOECD refinery throughputs surged to a new high of 41 mb/d in 4Q14, up 0.7mb/d on 3Q14 and
1.1mb/d on 4Q13, preliminary data suggest. Gains were largely accounted for by nonOECD Asia
towards yearend, after relatively subdued runs earlier in the year. The startup of Saudi Arabias
400kb/dYanburefineryinlate2014andUAEs420kb/dRuwaisexpansionandIndias300kb/dParadip
refinery,oncecommissionedsometimethisyear,willlikelypushfurtherpressureonexistingcapacityin
early 2015, inducing further consolidation efforts in OECD and nonOECD countries. Indeed, Shell
recently announced it was evaluating options for its Malaysian refinery, due to overcapacity in the
market,inastepfurthertowardsreducingitsworldwidedownstreampresence.
Non-OECD Total
mb/d
43
1.5
39
1.0
37
0.5
35
0.0
-0.5
Mar
May
Range 09-13
2013
2014
46
Annual Change
2.0
41
33
Jan
Non-OECD Crude Throughputs
mb/d
Crude Throughput
Jul
Sep
Nov
1Q13
Jan
Average 09-13
2014 est.
2015 est.
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
China
Other Asia
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
FSU
16J ANUARY 2014
R EFINING
According to official data from Chinas National Energy Board (NEB), Chinese refinery throughputs
averaged 10.3 mb/d in November, 465 kb/d above the year earlier. For the first 11 months of 2014,
Chineserefineryrunswere310kb/dupontheyearearlier,slightlyexceedingdomesticdemandgrowth.
Toaccommodateincreasedrefineryoutputamidlacklustredemand,ChinasMinistryofCommercejust
approved larger product export quotas for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for PetroChina and Sinopec for
2015.Sinopecgotaquotatoexport260kb/dofoilproductsthisyear,anincreaseof45kb/dfromlast
year,whilePetroChinasexportquotawasleftunchangedat180kb/d.
China
Refineryoperations data for December are not yet mb/d
Crude Throughput
available, but company schedules indicated runs would 10.5
rise further in that month. In particular, the restart of 10.0
CNOOCs Huizhou refinery after a prolonged shutdown
likely contributed to higher volumes. PetroChina 9.5
reportedly delayed the restart of its 200kb/d Penzhou 9.0
refinery in Sichuan due to lack of feedstocks. The
refinery,whichwascommissionedonlyayearago,has 8.5
Jan
Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov
Jan
been shut since midOctober and was scheduled to
2011
2012
restartinDecember.
2013
2014
2015 est.
2014 est.
Chinese refiners typically build diesel inventories in December and January, and unusually low diesel
inventoriesatendofNovembercouldprovidesomesupporttorefineryrunsincomingmonths.Despite
repeated cuts to regulated prices in China, domestic refinery margins were relatively healthy, possibly
providingfurthersupport.
Aftersixmonthsofsubduedruns,dueinparttounscheduledoutages,Indianrefineriesfinallyincreased
their throughputs in November. At 4.7 mb/d, Indian runs were 175kb/d higher than a month earlier,
includingan80kb/dincreaseatHPCLsVisakhrefineryaftermaintenanceinOctoberanda50kb/dgain
atBPCLsMumbairefinery.DelayscontinuetoplagueIOCs300kb/dParadiprefineryproject,whichis
now only expected to be commissioned towards the end of 1Q15. On 10December, private refinery
company Essar signed a 10year deal to buy 200 kb/d of Russian crude from Rosneft, to supply its
400kb/dVadinarrefinery.Thevalueofthedealamountstonearly$10billionovera10yearperiodwith
shipmentstostartpossiblyalreadythisyear.
India
mb/d
Crude Throughput
5.0
mb/d
10.5
4.8
4.6
10.0
4.4
9.5
4.2
9.0
4.0
Other Asia
Crude Throughput
8.5
3.8
3.6
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2011
2012
2013
2014 est.
2014
2015 est.
8.0
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Range 09-13
2013
2014
Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 09-13
2014 est.
2015 est.
In Singapore, Exxon reportedly cut runs at its 302 kb/d Jurong mainland refinery in October and
November.Therefineryisconnectedtoa290kb/dplantlocatedonJurongIsland,alsooperatedbythe
company. In November, Singapore Refining Company was reported to have started maintenance at its
290kb/drefinery,alsoonJurongIsland.JurongAromaticsCompany,meanwhile,wasreportedtohave
shutits100kb/dcondensatesplitterinmidDecemberfortwomonthsamidweakmargins.Thesplitter
hadonlybeencommissionedinAugustofthisyear,toprocessAustralianandQataricondensatesinto
16J ANUARY 2014
47
R EFINING
petrochemical feedstocks and transportation fuels. Elsewhere, Taiwans Formosa lifted runs to nearly
90%utilisationinJanuary,comparedwithonly70%inDecember,whenoneoftheplantsRFCCunitshad
amalfunction.
OfficialmonthlystatisticsdatafromtheRussianOilMinistryshowedrefinersprocessingnearly60mb/d
in November, up 275 kb/d from a month earlier and 300 kb/d above the year earlier. Increases came
from Rosnefts Syrzan and Angarsk refineries as well as
Russia
GazpromNeftsOmskrefineryandGazpromneftekhims mb/d
Crude Throughput
6.2
Salavat plant. Preliminary data show Russian refinery
6.0
runseasedslightlyinDecembertoaverage5.9mb/d,as
5.8
forecastinlastmonthsReport.Russianrefineryrunsare
5.6
expected to drop in January, but remain largely in line
5.4
with last years levels as refiners adjust to a revised
5.2
exportduty scheme. The new export duties prop up
5.0
margins of sophisticated refineries with high light
4.8
productoutputandexports,whilepenalisingthosewith
Jan Mar May
Jul
Sep Nov Jan
ahighfueloilyield.
2011
2012
2013
2014 est.
2014
2015 est.
In the Middle East, Iraqi refinery runs remained
constrainedduetotheshutdownofthecountryslargestplantinBaijisinceJune.Crudesuppliestostate
refiners averaged 405 kb/d in November, compared with 600kb/d in May prior to the IS assault. An
additional160kb/dofcrudeoilisestimatedtobeprocessedoruseddirectlyinKRGcontrolledterritory.
In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, latest data showed the Kingdom processed 2.06 mb/d of crude oil in
October. The recently commissioned Yasref refinery in Yanbu started trial runs in September and had
originally scheduled product exports from November, but this has been delayed until early 2015. The
cruderunforecastfortheUAEforDecemberandJanuaryhasbeenslightlyloweredsincelastmonths
Report,asitseemsTankreersnewRuwaisrefinerywillonlybecommissionedinearly2015,asopposed
toearlierannouncementsthattheplantwouldstartupbeforetheendof2014.
mb/d
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
Jan
Middle East
mb/d
Crude Throughput
2.4
Brazil
Crude Throughput
2.2
2.0
1.8
Mar
May
Range 09-13
2013
2014
Jul
Sep
Nov
1.6
Jan
Average 09-13
2014 est.
2015 est.
Jan
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
2012
2013
2014 est.
2014
2015 est.
InLatinAmerica,BrazilianrefineryrunswerelargelyunchangedinNovember,at2.1mb/d.Aspreviously
noted, Petrobras started trial runs at its Abreu e Lima refinery in early December. The first 115kb/d
crudeunitisexpectedtorampupthroughputsbeforethesecondcrudedistillationtowerandsecondary
units are commissioned in May. A malfunction of a cracking unit at the companys 208 kb/d Repar
refinery in late December, which forced the plant to run at reduced rates for two weeks into early
January,couldprovideapartialoffset.
48
Mar
2011
16J ANUARY 2014
T ABLES
Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TABLES
2011 2012
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2013
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015
OECD DEMAND
1
Americas
Europe2
Asia Oceania3
24.0
14.3
8.2
Total OECD
46.4 45.9
45.9 45.6 46.4 46.6 46.1
45.7 44.7 45.8 46.2 45.6
45.6 44.7 45.8 46.1 45.6
4.5
0.7
9.4
11.2
6.2
7.5
3.6
4.5
0.6
9.9
11.9
6.4
7.5
3.9
4.6
0.6
10.2
12.2
6.6
7.8
3.9
4.5
0.7
10.4
12.6
6.7
8.0
4.1
23.6
13.8
8.5
23.8
13.2
8.9
23.9
13.9
7.8
24.3
14.0
8.0
24.3
13.6
8.6
24.1
13.7
8.3
23.9
13.0
8.8
23.6
13.4
7.7
24.2
13.9
7.7
24.6
13.3
8.2
24.1
13.4
8.1
24.1
13.0
8.6
23.9
13.3
7.5
24.4
13.7
7.7
24.5
13.4
8.2
24.2
13.3
8.0
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Americas
Middle East
Africa
4.6
0.6
9.8
11.6
6.4
7.7
3.8
4.6
0.6
10.1
11.9
6.6
7.9
3.9
4.9
0.7
10.2
11.6
6.8
8.4
3.7
4.9
0.7
10.3
12.0
6.8
7.7
3.8
4.7
0.6
10.1
11.9
6.6
7.9
3.8
4.8
0.7
10.3
12.2
6.8
8.2
3.9
5.0
0.7
10.4
11.9
6.9
8.6
3.8
4.9
0.7
10.6
12.3
6.9
7.8
4.0
4.8
0.7
10.4
12.1
6.8
8.1
3.9
4.6
0.7
10.6
12.5
6.9
8.4
4.1
4.8
0.7
10.7
12.3
7.0
8.8
4.0
4.7
0.7
10.8
12.7
7.0
8.2
4.2
4.6
0.7
10.6
12.5
6.9
8.3
4.1
Total Non-OECD
43.1 44.6
44.7 45.7 46.2 46.3 45.7
45.9 46.9 47.3 47.2 46.8
46.9 47.8 48.2 48.3 47.8
Total Demand4
89.5 90.5
90.6 91.3 92.6 92.8 91.8
91.7 91.6 93.0 93.4 92.4
92.5 92.5 94.0 94.4 93.3
Americas1,7
Europe2
3
Asia Oceania
14.6
3.8
0.6
16.8
3.4
0.4
18.1
3.5
0.5
19.4
3.3
0.5
Total OECD
18.9 19.8
20.6 20.4 21.0 21.6 20.9
22.1 22.4 22.5 23.1 22.5
23.2 23.2 23.0 23.9 23.3
Middle East
Africa5
13.6
0.1
4.1
3.7
4.2
1.7
2.5
13.9
0.1
4.2
3.6
4.1
1.4
2.2
14.0
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.2
1.4
2.4
14.0
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.5
1.3
2.3
Total Non-OECD
29.9 29.5
OECD SUPPLY
15.8
3.5
0.6
16.6
3.4
0.5
17.3
3.2
0.5
17.8
3.4
0.4
17.1
3.3
0.5
18.6
3.3
0.5
18.8
3.1
0.5
19.3
3.3
0.5
18.7
3.3
0.5
19.5
3.2
0.5
19.4
3.1
0.6
20.0
3.4
0.5
19.6
3.3
0.5
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
5
Other Asia
Americas5,7
13.7
0.1
4.2
3.6
4.2
1.5
2.2
13.8
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.2
1.3
2.3
13.8
0.1
4.0
3.4
4.2
1.4
2.3
14.0
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.2
1.3
2.4
13.9
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.2
1.4
2.3
29.5 29.4 29.3 29.9 29.5
13.8
0.1
4.2
3.4
4.3
1.3
2.3
13.8
0.1
4.2
3.4
4.4
1.3
2.3
13.9
0.1
4.2
3.4
4.5
1.3
2.3
13.9
0.1
4.2
3.4
4.4
1.3
2.3
29.8 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.6
13.8
0.1
4.2
3.4
4.6
1.3
2.3
13.7
0.1
4.2
3.4
4.5
1.3
2.3
13.7
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.5
1.3
2.3
13.8
0.1
4.2
3.5
4.5
1.3
2.3
29.8 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.7
Processing gains6
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Global Biofuels7
1.9
1.9
1.5
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.7
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.2
1.9
2.3
2.6
2.3
2.3
Total Non-OPEC
52.8 53.3
53.8 54.1 54.8 55.8 54.6
55.7 56.4 56.8 57.3 56.6
29.9
5.9
30.5
6.2
30.0
6.3
57.1 57.4 57.4 58.0 57.5
OPEC
Crude8
NGLs
5
Total OPEC
Total Supply
31.3
6.2
30.9
6.3
30.6
6.3
29.8
6.3
30.5
6.3
30.1
6.4
30.5
6.5
30.5
6.5
30.3
6.4
35.8 37.5
36.7 37.2 36.9 36.1 36.7
36.3 36.4 37.0 37.0 36.7
88.6 90.8
90.5 91.2 91.8 91.9 91.4
92.1 92.8 93.8 94.3 93.3
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.7
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

Reported OECD
Industry
Government
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.1
-1.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.7
0.0
Total
-0.3
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.4
-1.4
-0.2
0.2
0.7
0.7
Floating storage/Oil in transit

10
Miscellaneous to balance
-0.1
-0.6
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.2
-1.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
0.9
0.3
-0.3
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
-0.9
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.9
-0.5
0.4
1.3
0.7
0.9
0.8
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.
11
30.8 31.1
30.5 30.9 31.4 30.8 30.9
29.6 28.8 29.8 29.6 29.5
28.8 28.4 29.9 29.7 29.2
3 As of August 2012 OMR, OECD Asia Oceania includes Israel.

4 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,
oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
5 Other Asia includes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2009.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009.
6 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses.
7 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
8 As of the March 2006 OMR, Venezuelan Orinoco heavy crude production is included within Venezuelan crude estimates. Orimulsion fuel remains within the OPEC NGL and
non-conventional category, but Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
9 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
10 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas.
11 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs.
16J ANUARY 2015
49
T ABLES
Table 1a
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND: CHANGES FROM LAST MONTH'S TABLE 1
2011 2012
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2013
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015
OECD DEMAND
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
0.1
-
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-0.2
-
0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-
0.1
-0.1
-
Total OECD
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-
0.1
-
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Americas
Middle East
Africa
Total Non-OECD
Total Demand
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.3
-
-0.2
-
-0.2
-
Total OECD
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Americas
Middle East
Africa
-0.1
-
-0.1
-
-0.2
-
-0.1
-0.2
-
-0.2
-
OECD SUPPLY
NON-OECD SUPPLY
Total Non-OECD
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
Processing gains
Global Biofuels
Total Non-OPEC
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
Crude
NGLs
Total OPEC
Total Supply
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.3
OPEC
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS

REPORTED OECD
Industry
Government
0.1
-
Total
0.1
Floating storage/Oil in transit

Miscellaneous to balance
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
Total Stock Ch. & Misc
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.
0.1
0.1
-0.1
When submitting their monthly oil statistics, OECD Member countries periodically update data for prior periods. Similar updates to non-OECD data can occur.
50
16J ANUARY 2015
T ABLES
Table 2
SUMMARY OF GLOBAL OIL DEMAND
2012
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
2013
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
2014
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
2015
Americas1
Europe2
Asia Oceania3
23.60
13.80
8.52
23.80
13.20
8.86
23.87
13.87
7.83
24.32
14.02
8.02
24.35
13.62
8.60
24.09
13.68
8.33
23.86
13.01
8.85
23.64
13.40
7.65
24.20
13.90
7.67
24.65
13.33
8.24
24.09
13.41
8.10
24.07
12.98
8.56
23.95
13.29
7.45
24.36
13.68
7.72
24.53
13.37
8.24
24.23
13.33
7.99
Total OECD
45.92
45.85
45.57
46.36
46.57
46.09
45.72
44.69
45.77
46.22
45.60
45.60
44.69
45.76
46.15
45.55
Asia
Middle East
Americas
FSU
Africa
Europe
21.42
7.75
6.42
4.61
3.78
0.65
21.82
7.54
6.37
4.46
3.89
0.62
21.98
7.94
6.59
4.64
3.88
0.65
21.73
8.40
6.75
4.93
3.73
0.66
22.33
7.74
6.77
4.93
3.82
0.68
21.96
7.91
6.62
4.74
3.83
0.65
22.36
7.81
6.57
4.61
3.93
0.65
22.50
8.20
6.76
4.81
3.95
0.65
22.25
8.56
6.92
5.03
3.84
0.67
22.92
7.84
6.86
4.93
3.98
0.68
22.51
8.10
6.78
4.85
3.93
0.67
23.00
7.95
6.67
4.52
4.08
0.66
23.13
8.38
6.87
4.60
4.11
0.68
22.95
8.79
7.01
4.77
4.02
0.68
23.57
8.16
7.01
4.65
4.17
0.70
23.16
8.32
6.89
4.64
4.10
0.68
Total Non-OECD
World
44.63
90.55
44.70
90.55
45.69
91.26
46.19
92.55
46.27
92.84
45.72
91.81
45.93
91.65
46.87
91.56
47.28
93.05
47.21
93.42
46.82
92.43
46.88
92.48
47.76
92.45
48.22
93.98
48.26
94.40
47.79
93.34
18.52
8.36
9.82
4.69
3.75
3.40
2.97
2.97
2.35
2.32
2.09
1.79
63.03
18.64
8.04
9.87
5.05
3.87
3.33
2.96
2.75
2.45
2.33
2.05
1.80
63.15
18.72
8.37
10.09
4.08
3.85
3.44
3.06
3.09
2.42
2.29
2.08
1.81
63.30
19.21
8.34
10.16
4.28
3.55
3.69
3.15
3.33
2.44
2.27
2.03
1.82
64.28
19.26
8.16
10.28
4.72
3.82
3.61
3.19
2.88
2.43
2.40
2.02
1.81
64.56
18.96
8.23
10.10
4.53
3.77
3.52
3.09
3.01
2.44
2.32
2.04
1.81
63.83
18.83
7.89
10.15
5.02
3.96
3.47
3.10
2.86
2.43
2.36
1.95
1.84
63.85
18.70
7.93
10.32
3.87
3.96
3.60
3.16
3.30
2.34
2.32
1.97
1.79
63.28
19.17
8.26
10.39
3.88
3.68
3.78
3.27
3.56
2.45
2.33
1.96
1.81
64.54
19.56
7.94
10.63
4.37
3.87
3.60
3.26
2.97
2.46
2.37
1.98
1.81
64.83
19.07
8.01
10.37
4.28
3.87
3.61
3.20
3.17
2.42
2.35
1.97
1.81
64.13
19.06
7.89
10.42
4.67
4.06
3.39
3.16
2.98
2.40
2.40
1.94
1.86
64.24
19.00
7.89
10.59
3.73
4.10
3.41
3.26
3.39
2.36
2.25
1.97
1.85
63.80
19.33
8.05
10.68
3.90
3.82
3.55
3.35
3.65
2.44
2.34
1.96
1.85
64.91
19.44
7.89
10.83
4.31
4.05
3.38
3.36
3.11
2.42
2.42
2.02
1.86
65.08
19.21
7.93
10.63
4.15
4.01
3.43
3.28
3.29
2.41
2.35
1.97
1.85
64.51
69.6%
69.7%
69.4%
69.5%
69.5%
69.5%
69.7%
69.1%
69.4%
69.4%
69.4%
69.5%
69.0%
69.1%
68.9%
69.1%
-1.7
-3.2
4.5
2.0
-4.0
-2.7
1.3
0.1
-2.1
2.5
1.0
-2.8
2.4
-0.7
-1.5
2.1
-0.9
-2.3
0.3
-1.4
-0.2
-1.0
-3.3
-2.3
-0.5
-0.9
-4.3
1.2
-2.1
-4.3
0.0
-1.9
-2.7
0.8
-0.3
-3.3
1.3
-0.9
-2.6
0.7
-1.5
0.6
-0.5
0.3
0.0
0.6
-0.6
-1.4
-1.07
-0.73
0.36
1.12
0.72
0.37
-0.28
-1.93
-1.28
-0.76
-1.06
-0.27
-0.01
-0.01
-0.16
-0.11
4.0
3.7
3.3
1.4
5.5
-3.4
3.6
4.9
3.0
0.8
3.9
-4.3
3.5
2.3
3.4
2.2
3.5
-0.6
2.4
1.2
3.4
3.9
-0.3
2.7
0.7
0.0
2.7
4.3
-1.2
4.4
2.5
2.0
3.1
2.9
1.4
0.6
2.5
3.5
3.3
3.3
0.9
5.2
2.4
3.2
2.5
3.6
1.6
0.9
2.4
2.0
2.4
2.1
3.2
2.4
2.6
1.2
1.2
0.0
4.2
1.1
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.4
2.8
1.9
1.4
-1.9
3.8
2.4
2.8
2.2
1.6
-4.4
4.1
3.8
3.1
2.6
1.4
-5.1
4.7
0.7
2.9
4.1
2.2
-5.6
4.9
1.8
2.9
2.7
1.7
-4.3
4.4
2.1
3.59
1.2
3.36
1.2
3.08
1.7
2.26
1.7
1.14
0.9
2.44
1.4
2.76
1.2
2.57
0.3
2.36
0.5
2.02
0.6
2.42
0.7
2.07
0.9
1.91
1.0
1.99
1.0
2.23
1.0
2.05
1.0
Americas1
Europe2
Asia Oceania3
-0.40
-0.46
0.37
0.46
-0.55
-0.24
0.32
0.01
-0.17
0.60
0.14
-0.23
0.56
-0.10
-0.13
0.49
-0.12
-0.19
0.07
-0.18
-0.01
-0.23
-0.46
-0.18
-0.12
-0.12
-0.35
0.30
-0.29
-0.37
0.00
-0.26
-0.23
0.20
-0.04
-0.29
0.31
-0.12
-0.20
0.16
-0.21
0.05
-0.11
0.04
0.00
0.14
-0.08
-0.11
Total OECD
-0.50
-0.34
0.16
0.51
0.33
0.17
-0.13
-0.88
-0.60
-0.35
-0.49
-0.12
0.00
0.00
-0.07
-0.05
Asia
Middle East
Americas
FSU
Africa
Europe
0.82
0.28
0.21
0.06
0.20
-0.02
0.76
0.36
0.18
0.03
0.15
-0.03
0.74
0.18
0.22
0.10
0.13
0.00
0.51
0.10
0.22
0.19
-0.01
0.02
0.16
0.00
0.18
0.20
-0.05
0.03
0.54
0.16
0.20
0.13
0.05
0.00
0.54
0.27
0.21
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.52
0.26
0.16
0.17
0.06
0.01
0.52
0.17
0.16
0.10
0.12
0.02
0.59
0.10
0.08
0.00
0.16
0.01
0.54
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.09
0.02
0.63
0.14
0.09
-0.09
0.15
0.02
0.63
0.18
0.11
-0.21
0.16
0.02
0.69
0.23
0.09
-0.26
0.18
0.01
0.65
0.32
0.15
-0.28
0.19
0.01
0.65
0.22
0.11
-0.21
0.17
0.01
Total Non-OECD
World
1.55
1.05
1.45
1.12
1.36
1.53
1.02
1.53
0.52
0.86
1.09
1.26
1.23
1.10
1.18
0.30
1.09
0.49
0.94
0.58
1.11
0.62
0.95
0.83
0.90
0.89
0.94
0.94
1.05
0.98
0.96
0.91
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.25
-0.22
-0.11
0.06
-0.06
-0.03
0.13
-0.17
-0.05
0.10
-0.11
-0.02
0.10
-0.06
-0.02
0.07
-0.01
-0.01
0.10
-0.09
-0.03
Demand (mb/d)
of which: US50
Europe 5*
China
Japan
India
Russia
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Korea
Mexico
Iran
Total
% of World
Annual Change (% per annum)

Americas1
Europe2
Asia Oceania3
Total OECD
Asia
Middle East
Americas
FSU
Africa
Europe
Total Non-OECD
World
Annual Change (mb/d)
Revisions to Oil Demand from Last Month's Report (mb/d)

Americas1
Europe2
Asia Oceania3
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
Total OECD
0.00
-0.01
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.09
-0.02
-0.08
-0.03
0.02
0.05
-0.01
Asia
Middle East
Americas
FSU
Africa
Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
-0.06
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.02
-0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
-0.01
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Non-OECD
World
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.04
0.01
0.05
0.00
0.06
0.00
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.05
0.05
-0.03
-0.04
0.00
-0.09
0.01
-0.02
0.03
-0.05
-0.01
-0.03
0.01
0.03
-0.03
0.02
0.00
-0.01
0.02
0.00
-0.08
-0.15
-0.05
-0.07
-0.08
0.06
0.11
0.01
Revisions to Oil Demand Growth from Last Month's Report (mb/d)

World
1
2
3
*
0.00
-0.01
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.04
As of the August 2012 OMR, includes Chile.

As of the August 2012 OMR, includes Estonia and Slovenia.
As of the August 2012 OMR, includes Israel.
France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK
16J ANUARY 2015
51
T ABLES
Table 2a
OECD REGIONAL OIL DEMAND1
Latest month vs.

2012
2013
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
LPG and ethane

Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
3.11
0.34
10.38
1.62
4.98
0.78
2.40
3.34
0.38
10.55
1.66
5.08
0.69
2.38
3.62
0.37
10.55
1.66
5.21
0.57
2.37
3.54
0.36
10.21
1.63
5.44
0.54
2.15
2.85
0.34
10.73
1.69
5.14
0.56
2.33
2.98
0.35
10.85
1.76
5.13
0.57
2.56
3.07
0.34
11.02
1.77
5.05
0.54
2.46
3.05
0.34
10.51
1.71
5.20
0.57
2.67
Total
23.60
24.09
24.35
23.86
23.64
24.20
24.25
0.94
1.21
2.01
1.21
5.95
1.11
1.38
1.04
1.18
1.95
1.22
5.99
1.00
1.29
0.98
1.14
1.92
1.20
6.17
0.94
1.27
1.01
1.31
1.81
1.11
5.73
0.97
1.08
1.08
1.20
1.97
1.24
5.76
0.90
1.26
1.10
1.12
2.01
1.38
6.03
0.92
1.33
13.80
13.68
13.62
13.01
13.40
LPG and ethane

Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.89
1.80
1.63
0.89
1.76
0.90
0.67
0.85
1.84
1.61
0.89
1.76
0.76
0.62
0.85
1.93
1.60
1.01
1.84
0.74
0.63
0.88
1.97
1.54
1.13
1.82
0.83
0.67
Total
8.52
8.33
8.60
LPG and ethane

Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
4.93
3.35
14.01
3.72
12.68
2.78
4.45
5.23
3.40
14.11
3.78
12.84
2.45
4.29
Total
45.92
46.09
Americas
Europe
Sep 14
Oct 13
3.23
0.34
10.93
1.70
5.56
0.63
2.31
0.18
0.00
0.42
-0.01
0.36
0.06
-0.36
-0.20
-0.02
0.28
0.02
0.19
-0.03
0.00
24.05
24.69
0.65
0.24
1.10
1.18
2.00
1.43
5.71
0.90
1.24
1.10
0.99
1.99
1.34
6.36
0.94
1.36
1.09
0.98
1.97
1.29
6.44
0.92
1.28
-0.01
-0.01
-0.02
-0.05
0.09
-0.02
-0.08
0.07
-0.08
-0.01
0.02
-0.04
-0.05
-0.05
13.90
13.56
14.09
13.97
-0.11
-0.14
0.82
1.74
1.51
0.71
1.72
0.63
0.53
0.78
1.80
1.59
0.68
1.70
0.58
0.55
0.75
1.90
1.67
0.66
1.65
0.55
0.56
0.76
1.76
1.56
0.72
1.73
0.56
0.46
0.75
1.84
1.53
0.77
1.77
0.57
0.45
-0.01
0.08
-0.03
0.04
0.03
0.01
-0.02
-0.02
0.04
-0.01
-0.03
0.02
-0.10
-0.12
8.85
7.65
7.67
7.73
7.56
7.67
0.11
-0.22
5.46
3.44
14.07
3.87
13.21
2.25
4.27
5.43
3.65
13.56
3.87
12.99
2.33
3.90
4.76
3.28
14.20
3.63
12.62
2.08
4.12
4.86
3.27
14.45
3.82
12.86
2.07
4.43
4.91
3.41
14.69
3.85
12.42
2.00
4.26
4.91
3.09
14.06
3.78
13.29
2.07
4.50
5.07
3.16
14.43
3.76
13.77
2.11
4.04
0.16
0.07
0.37
-0.02
0.48
0.05
-0.46
-0.16
-0.07
0.26
0.01
0.17
-0.18
-0.17
46.57
45.72
44.69
45.77
45.54
45.70
46.34
0.64
-0.13
LPG and ethane

Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
Total
Asia Oceania5
OECD
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
North America comprises US 50 states, US territories, Mexico and Canada.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
3 As of the August 2012 OMR, includes Chile.
4 As of the August 2012 OMR, includes Estonia and Slovenia.
5 As of the August 2012 OMR, includes Israel.
52
16J ANUARY 2015
T ABLES
Table 2b
OIL DEMAND IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES1
Latest month vs.

2012
2013
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
2.26
0.24
8.69
1.41
3.74
0.37
1.82
2.44
0.27
8.84
1.44
3.83
0.32
1.82
2.71
0.26
8.84
1.44
3.94
0.27
1.80
2.64
0.24
8.53
1.41
4.16
0.24
1.62
2.03
0.20
9.00
1.47
3.92
0.25
1.82
2.21
0.23
9.10
1.52
3.86
0.24
2.00
2.31
0.22
9.29
1.52
3.82
0.21
1.91
2.26
0.23
8.78
1.49
3.92
0.26
2.10
18.52
18.96
19.26
18.83
18.70
19.17
19.29
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.53
0.72
0.98
0.55
0.42
0.40
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.77
0.96
0.54
0.42
0.40
0.45
0.49
0.50
0.82
0.96
0.64
0.45
0.42
0.44
0.49
0.56
0.81
0.92
0.77
0.44
0.46
0.52
0.54
0.47
0.65
0.88
0.37
0.41
0.35
0.35
0.40
0.43
0.68
0.95
0.35
0.39
0.35
0.33
0.40
Total
4.69
4.53
4.72
5.02
3.87
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.10
0.38
0.43
0.19
0.67
0.40
0.13
0.08
0.11
0.40
0.43
0.19
0.70
0.42
0.12
0.07
0.10
0.39
0.42
0.18
0.71
0.41
0.12
0.07
0.09
0.43
0.41
0.17
0.68
0.38
0.12
0.05
Total
2.39
2.43
2.41
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.10
0.08
0.22
0.09
0.47
0.10
0.11
0.21
0.11
0.08
0.21
0.09
0.45
0.11
0.08
0.19
Total
1.37
Sep 14
Oct 13
2.39
0.23
9.19
1.48
4.24
0.29
1.79
0.13
-0.01
0.41
-0.01
0.32
0.02
-0.31
-0.22
-0.03
0.24
0.02
0.20
0.02
0.05
19.05
19.60
0.55
0.29
0.41
0.71
1.01
0.32
0.38
0.34
0.33
0.42
0.42
0.65
0.92
0.39
0.40
0.37
0.32
0.33
0.41
0.79
0.89
0.41
0.40
0.37
0.33
0.34
-0.01
0.14
-0.04
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
-0.02
0.03
-0.05
-0.04
-0.04
0.01
-0.05
-0.08
3.88
3.90
3.80
3.93
0.13
-0.24
0.10
0.41
0.43
0.19
0.71
0.31
0.10
0.06
0.10
0.42
0.45
0.21
0.78
0.36
0.12
0.06
0.10
0.42
0.44
0.23
0.74
0.34
0.12
0.06
0.09
0.38
0.45
0.20
0.81
0.40
0.12
0.07
0.08
0.39
0.47
0.19
0.82
0.38
0.14
0.05
-0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.01
-0.02
0.02
-0.02
-0.02
0.02
0.02
-0.01
0.04
-0.10
0.01
-0.04
2.33
2.32
2.50
2.46
2.53
2.52
-0.01
-0.09
0.11
0.06
0.22
0.09
0.45
0.12
0.08
0.20
0.10
0.07
0.20
0.08
0.44
0.08
0.07
0.15
0.09
0.06
0.21
0.10
0.48
0.06
0.06
0.16
0.09
0.06
0.21
0.11
0.51
0.05
0.07
0.16
0.08
0.07
0.20
0.12
0.45
0.05
0.07
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.20
0.11
0.53
0.05
0.07
0.17
0.09
0.05
0.20
0.10
0.55
0.07
0.07
0.16
0.00
-0.01
0.00
-0.02
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.07
-0.06
-0.02
-0.06
1.32
1.33
1.21
1.22
1.26
1.19
1.28
1.28
-0.01
-0.12
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.11
0.14
0.18
0.15
0.69
0.27
0.07
0.15
0.11
0.15
0.17
0.15
0.69
0.29
0.06
0.15
0.11
0.11
0.17
0.15
0.70
0.29
0.06
0.13
0.12
0.17
0.16
0.14
0.66
0.28
0.05
0.11
0.09
0.16
0.18
0.15
0.70
0.21
0.05
0.14
0.09
0.15
0.19
0.16
0.71
0.25
0.05
0.17
0.08
0.17
0.18
0.17
0.64
0.22
0.05
0.15
0.10
0.12
0.19
0.14
0.74
0.30
0.05
0.16
0.11
0.10
0.18
0.15
0.74
0.29
0.05
0.15
0.01
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.00
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
Total
1.77
1.77
1.71
1.69
1.69
1.77
1.68
1.78
1.78
-0.01
-0.02
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.11
0.03
0.32
0.31
0.45
0.13
0.05
0.14
0.11
0.03
0.31
0.31
0.46
0.12
0.04
0.13
0.09
0.02
0.30
0.33
0.48
0.12
0.03
0.12
0.12
0.02
0.29
0.31
0.46
0.11
0.04
0.12
0.12
0.02
0.31
0.30
0.49
0.12
0.03
0.13
0.10
0.03
0.30
0.32
0.48
0.12
0.03
0.13
0.09
0.04
0.31
0.33
0.49
0.12
0.03
0.12
0.09
0.01
0.30
0.34
0.48
0.12
0.03
0.13
0.10
0.04
0.30
0.32
0.48
0.12
0.02
0.12
0.02
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
0.03
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
-0.01
0.00
Total
1.53
1.51
1.49
1.47
1.51
1.51
1.53
1.51
1.51
-0.01
0.05
Diesel
Other gasoil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
0.40
0.09
0.79
0.10
0.30
0.27
0.06
0.34
0.45
0.09
0.82
0.10
0.29
0.31
0.06
0.32
0.46
0.08
0.80
0.10
0.27
0.34
0.05
0.33
0.44
0.09
0.81
0.10
0.29
0.34
0.07
0.29
0.39
0.10
0.85
0.09
0.29
0.29
0.05
0.29
0.33
0.10
0.88
0.11
0.29
0.34
0.06
0.34
0.33
0.10
0.87
0.11
0.27
0.33
0.06
0.33
0.35
0.09
0.87
0.10
0.31
0.36
0.05
0.35
0.39
0.08
0.85
0.09
0.32
0.34
0.05
0.30
0.04
-0.01
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
-0.02
0.00
-0.05
0.01
0.01
0.05
-0.01
0.03
-0.03
0.01
-0.03
Total
2.35
2.44
2.43
2.43
2.34
2.45
2.40
2.48
2.43
-0.06
0.04
United States3
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Gasoil/diesel oil
Residual fuel oil
Other products
Total
Japan
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Germany
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Italy
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
France
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
United Kingdom
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
Canada
LPG and ethane
Naphtha
Motor gasoline
Jet and kerosene
1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
3 US figures exclude US territories.
16J ANUARY 2015
53
T ABLES
Table 3
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION
2013
2014
2015
3Q14
4Q14
9.62
2.79
3.21
2.81
2.65
0.38
0.72
1.71
1.89
0.57
1.15
0.56
2.48
9.53
2.80
3.48
2.74
2.67
0.21
0.68
1.72
1.89
0.67
1.13
0.55
2.44
30.52
6.48
30.50
6.50
37.00
37.00
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
9.56
2.76
3.32
2.74
2.70
0.24
0.69
1.75
1.88
0.87
1.13
0.54
2.46
9.51
2.81
3.41
2.71
2.66
0.20
0.68
1.69
1.92
0.69
1.13
0.55
2.44
9.52
2.84
3.70
2.76
2.67
0.20
0.67
1.72
1.87
0.44
1.12
0.55
2.42
30.63
6.50
30.40
6.50
30.48
6.50
37.13
36.89
36.97
OPEC
Crude Oil
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Neutral Zone
Qatar
Angola
Nigeria
Libya
Algeria
Ecuador
Venezuela
9.40
2.68
3.08
2.76
2.55
0.52
0.73
1.72
1.95
0.90
1.15
0.52
2.50
9.53
2.81
3.33
2.75
2.61
0.38
0.71
1.66
1.91
0.46
1.12
0.55
2.46
Total Crude Oil

Total NGLs1
30.46
6.26
30.28
Total OPEC
36.72
36.69
17.11
18.71
19.55
18.84
19.27
19.37
19.50
19.38
19.20
19.27
19.35
10.24
2.89
3.97
0.01
11.75
2.78
4.16
0.01
12.60
2.62
4.32
0.01
11.97
2.76
4.10
0.01
12.36
2.66
4.24
0.01
12.35
2.67
4.34
0.01
12.56
2.64
4.28
0.01
12.59
2.59
4.18
0.01
12.30
2.72
4.17
0.01
12.42
2.64
4.20
0.01
12.36
2.63
4.35
0.01
Europe7
3.34
3.31
3.25
3.14
3.34
3.32
3.16
3.11
3.41
3.26
3.36
UK
Norway
Others
0.89
1.84
0.61
0.86
1.88
0.57
0.83
1.85
0.57
0.71
1.86
0.58
0.84
1.91
0.59
0.84
1.90
0.59
0.81
1.77
0.57
0.73
1.81
0.57
0.88
1.93
0.60
0.73
1.94
0.60
0.91
1.87
0.58
0.48
0.50
0.54
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.55
0.55
0.51
0.52
0.52
0.40
0.08
0.42
0.08
0.46
0.08
0.43
0.08
0.44
0.08
0.44
0.08
0.47
0.08
0.47
0.08
0.43
0.08
0.44
0.08
0.44
0.08
20.92
22.52
23.34
22.50
23.13
23.23
23.20
23.04
23.12
23.05
23.23
13.88
13.90
13.78
13.81
13.93
13.95
13.82
13.68
13.90
13.86
14.04
10.88
3.00
10.93
2.97
10.79
3.00
10.84
2.97
10.97
2.97
10.92
3.03
10.83
2.98
10.70
2.99
10.96
2.94
10.95
2.91
10.99
3.05
6.42
6.65
6.61
6.66
6.66
NON-OPEC2
OECD
6
Americas
United States5
Mexico
Canada
Chile
Asia Oceania8
Australia
Others
Total OECD
NON-OECD
Former USSR
Russia
Others
7.67
7.61
7.67
7.54
7.56
7.65
7.65
7.64
7.51
7.63
7.56
China
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
Others
4.18
0.64
0.88
0.87
1.10
4.20
0.66
0.87
0.83
1.06
4.21
0.69
0.89
0.79
1.09
4.17
0.63
0.86
0.83
1.05
4.15
0.67
0.88
0.81
1.05
4.19
0.69
0.89
0.81
1.07
4.21
0.69
0.89
0.77
1.08
4.19
0.69
0.89
0.77
1.09
4.08
0.67
0.89
0.82
1.05
4.22
0.67
0.88
0.81
1.05
4.15
0.67
0.88
0.81
1.06
Europe
Americas
0.14
4.17
0.14
4.36
0.13
4.52
0.14
4.43
0.13
4.52
0.14
4.45
0.13
4.55
0.13
4.52
0.13
4.54
0.14
4.48
0.14
4.53
2.12
0.63
1.01
0.42
2.33
0.62
0.99
0.42
2.53
0.63
0.93
0.42
2.39
0.62
1.00
0.42
2.47
0.62
1.00
0.42
2.46
0.64
0.94
0.42
2.56
0.63
0.94
0.42
2.54
0.63
0.93
0.42
2.47
0.63
1.01
0.43
2.44
0.62
1.00
0.42
2.48
0.62
1.01
0.42
1.35
1.32
1.26
1.31
1.29
1.28
1.26
1.26
1.30
1.29
1.29
0.95
0.06
0.15
0.19
0.95
0.03
0.15
0.19
0.93
0.03
0.11
0.19
0.95
0.04
0.13
0.19
0.94
0.04
0.13
0.19
0.94
0.03
0.12
0.19
0.93
0.03
0.12
0.19
0.93
0.03
0.11
0.19
0.94
0.04
0.13
0.19
0.94
0.03
0.13
0.19
0.94
0.03
0.13
0.19
2.30
2.32
2.31
2.30
2.30
2.34
2.31
2.30
2.30
2.30
2.30
0.73
0.24
1.33
0.70
0.24
1.38
0.66
0.23
1.41
0.69
0.23
1.38
0.68
0.24
1.39
0.68
0.23
1.43
0.67
0.23
1.41
0.66
0.23
1.41
0.68
0.24
1.38
0.68
0.24
1.38
0.68
0.24
1.39
29.52
29.65
29.67
29.53
29.74
29.81
29.72
29.53
29.69
29.69
29.85
2.18
2.01
2.21
2.18
2.22
2.26
2.24
2.50
2.22
2.22
2.22
1.85
2.22
2.28
2.22
2.63
2.22
2.52
2.22
2.21
2.22
1.94
54.63
91.35
56.56
93.25
57.49
56.77
93.77
57.31
94.31
57.10
57.42
57.41
57.54
94.66
57.16
94.06
57.24
94.21
Asia
Brazil5
Argentina
Colombia
Others
Middle East3
Oman
Syria
Yemen
Others
Africa
Egypt
Gabon
Others
Total Non-OECD
Processing gains
5
Global Biofuels
TOTAL NON-OPEC
TOTAL SUPPLY
1 Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. Venezuelan Orimulsion (but not Orinoco extra-heavy oil),
and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE. Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
2 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources
3 Includes small amounts of production from Jordan and Bahrain.
4 Net volumetric gains and losses in refining and marine transportation losses.
5 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
6 As of the August 2012 OMR, includes Chile.
7 As of the August 2012 OMR, includes Estonia and Slovenia.
8 As of the August 2012 OMR, includes Israel.
54
16J ANUARY 2015
T ABLES
Table 4
OECD INDUSTRY STOCKS1 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES
RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS
in Million Barrels
Jul2014
Aug2014
Sep2014
STOCK CHANGES
in Million Barrels
Oct2014
Nov2014*
in mb/d
Nov2011
Nov2012
Nov2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
OECD Americas
Crude
519.3
511.3
511.8
538.7
538.2
476.6
520.1
522.6
-0.25
0.26
0.08
-0.20
Motor Gasoline
251.9
245.1
245.7
236.6
245.4
254.2
249.9
250.3
0.08
-0.02
-0.07
-0.07
Middle Distillate
194.8
198.2
203.2
187.8
186.6
219.1
191.7
189.8
-0.10
-0.13
0.06
0.13
44.6
46.0
44.4
44.1
44.9
48.0
44.6
43.4
0.03
-0.03
0.01
0.00
703.2
713.1
719.5
689.0
686.1
691.6
680.5
668.9
-0.47
-0.37
0.51
0.38
1395.2
1400.6
1411.0
1409.8
1402.9
1330.5
1367.9
1351.7
-0.95
-0.06
0.78
0.32
Residual Fuel Oil

Total Products3
Total
OECD Europe
Crude
308.9
301.1
304.2
305.0
300.5
306.5
322.0
316.4
-0.05
0.05
0.05
-0.13
Motor Gasoline
81.5
86.1
86.4
84.2
87.5
95.3
92.3
85.8
-0.01
0.05
-0.09
0.04
Middle Distillate
251.9
265.5
265.3
253.6
259.9
263.0
252.0
243.5
-0.04
-0.02
-0.01
0.20
66.9
69.2
63.5
63.5
65.5
77.8
78.2
67.3
-0.06
-0.06
0.08
-0.05
Residual Fuel Oil

3
Total Products
Total
493.6
516.8
513.2
501.6
511.3
542.7
522.6
483.2
-0.09
-0.04
-0.01
0.25
871.2
890.1
887.5
878.5
883.1
919.0
913.0
867.1
-0.11
0.05
0.04
0.10
OECD Asia Oceania

Crude
163.3
167.0
163.9
168.0
160.3
156.5
163.4
150.0
-0.14
0.28
-0.05
-0.01
Motor Gasoline
23.2
22.6
22.8
22.3
22.9
23.6
25.0
24.8
-0.01
0.02
-0.01
-0.02
Middle Distillate
58.6
69.4
70.3
67.8
70.5
69.1
64.1
64.7
-0.02
-0.13
-0.02
0.18
Residual Fuel Oil

3
Total Products
23.0
24.2
22.9
21.2
20.3
19.9
18.9
18.4
-0.01
0.02
0.00
0.02
165.5
179.6
183.1
179.3
182.3
179.3
175.3
172.9
-0.14
-0.10
-0.04
0.28
398.7
417.7
421.3
417.2
410.8
409.5
410.9
395.1
-0.34
0.20
-0.07
0.32
Total
Total OECD
Crude
991.5
979.4
979.9
1011.6
999.0
939.6
1005.5
988.9
-0.43
0.59
0.07
-0.34
Motor Gasoline
356.6
353.8
354.9
343.1
355.8
373.0
367.2
360.9
0.06
0.04
-0.18
-0.06
Middle Distillate
505.4
533.1
538.8
509.2
517.0
551.2
507.7
498.0
-0.16
-0.29
0.03
0.51
Residual Fuel Oil

3
Total Products
134.5
139.4
130.8
128.8
130.7
145.6
141.6
129.1
-0.03
-0.07
0.09
-0.03
Total
1362.2
1409.6
1415.8
1369.9
1379.7
1413.6
1378.4
1325.1
-0.71
-0.51
0.47
0.92
2665.1
2708.3
2719.8
2705.5
2696.8
2659.0
2691.7
2614.0
-1.40
0.19
0.75
0.73
OECD GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED STOCKS5 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES

RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS
PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS
in Million Barrels
STOCK CHANGES
in Million Barrels
in mb/d
Jul2014
Aug2014
Sep2014
Oct2014
Nov2014*
Nov2011
Nov2012
Nov2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
691.0
691.0
691.0
691.0
691.0
696.0
695.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.7
1.0
696.0
0.00
0.00
-0.05
0.00
1.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
OECD Americas
Crude
Products
OECD Europe
Crude
209.1
209.0
208.2
210.6
210.8
184.2
196.1
205.8
0.01
-0.03
0.05
0.00
Products
258.0
258.7
257.3
255.1
255.7
239.4
235.7
260.6
-0.03
0.03
-0.05
-0.02
387.7
387.6
385.7
384.7
384.7
392.6
393.6
385.8
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.02
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
20.0
20.0
30.1
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
1287.7
1287.6
1284.9
1286.2
1286.4
1272.7
1284.6
1287.5
0.03
-0.01
-0.01
-0.02
290.0
290.7
289.3
287.1
287.7
260.0
256.7
291.7
-0.01
0.04
-0.04
-0.02
1582.0
1582.5
1579.4
1578.0
1578.4
1534.1
1542.6
1583.4
0.02
0.02
-0.05
-0.02
OECD Asia Oceania

Crude
Products
Total OECD
Crude
Products
Total4
* estimated
1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by
industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Closing stock levels.
3 Total products includes gasoline, middle distillates, fuel oil and other products.
4 Total includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
5 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
16J ANUARY 2015
55
T ABLES
Table 5
TOTAL STOCKS ON LAND IN OECD COUNTRIES1
('millions of barrels' and 'days')
End September 2013
End December 2013
End March 2014
End June 2014
End September 2014
Stock
Days Fwd2
Stock Days Fwd
Stock Days Fwd
Stock Days Fwd
Stock Days Fwd
Level
Demand
Level Demand
Level Demand
Level Demand
Level
Demand
OECD Americas
Canada
Chile
Mexico
United States4
182.9
11.2
50.0
1834.4
75
35
25
95
170.0
9.8
48.7
1762.4
70
30
25
94
174.2
9.5
47.6
1754.0
75
30
24
94
178.8
10.6
47.3
1814.7
73
33
24
95
186.0
10.1
48.8
1836.0
2100.6
86
2013.0
84
2007.5
85
2073.5
86
2102.9
85
Australia
Israel
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
36.6
590.7
190.7
7.7
33
125
80
48
36.8
575.3
177.8
8.3
34
115
75
50
36.8
585.8
186.5
8.2
34
151
80
55
36.3
585.1
180.3
9.3
34
151
77
63
38.3
604.1
186.7
9.0
Total
825.7
96
798.3
90
817.4
107
811.0
106
838.0
102
20.6
39.4
20.3
21.3
1.4
41.0
166.1
287.6
26.7
16.5
10.7
130.8
0.7
120.7
27.9
61.9
22.1
8.3
4.9
120.3
25.8
37.2
63.2
75.6
79
66
103
138
47
206
97
119
95
118
76
99
11
122
121
118
89
104
89
99
94
129
87
51
21.6
41.0
20.0
23.7
1.6
39.0
167.5
289.9
25.6
16.2
10.0
125.1
0.7
115.5
28.7
60.4
23.1
8.8
4.7
111.6
28.2
35.9
62.3
78.0
91
66
110
157
55
211
99
124
101
129
70
104
13
121
123
129
105
127
103
93
104
165
98
53
22.7
42.5
19.3
19.6
1.7
37.9
167.2
289.2
24.9
16.0
11.0
122.5
0.7
122.5
28.6
60.2
23.8
9.6
4.9
117.4
27.5
36.4
62.7
76.6
85
70
95
126
56
194
99
125
92
115
80
100
12
119
121
119
98
136
102
99
90
159
87
51
21.1
43.7
18.9
23.1
1.7
39.0
168.1
291.7
25.6
16.2
9.6
121.6
0.8
127.4
27.4
58.5
22.5
8.8
4.8
118.2
26.4
36.2
62.5
75.2
76
70
88
146
50
191
95
117
83
114
69
96
15
131
121
109
87
111
92
97
82
146
84
50
21.5
43.8
19.5
22.4
1.8
38.7
171.3
286.9
29.7
16.7
9.6
123.0
0.8
126.8
24.5
61.1
21.4
8.9
4.8
122.7
27.7
37.0
62.6
74.9
1351.1
4277.4
99
92
1339.3
4150.5
103
91
1345.3
4170.2
100
93
1349.0
4233.5
97
93
1358.2
4299.2
102
93
Total
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Europe5
Austria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
Total
Total OECD
DAYS OF IEA Net Imports6 -
161
157
157
169
172
1 Total Stocks are industry and government-controlled stocks (see breakdown in table below). Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks
and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) they include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserves commitments and are
subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Note that days of forward demand represent the stock level divided by the forward quarter average daily demand and is very different from the days of net
imports used for the calculation of IEA Emergency Reserves.
3 End September 2014 forward demand figures are IEA Secretariat forecasts.
4 US figures exclude US territories. Total includes US territories.
5 Data not available for Iceland.
6 Reflects stock levels and prior calendar year's net imports adjusted according to IEA emergency reserve definitions (see www.iea.org/netimports.asp).
Net exporting IEA countries are excluded.
TOTAL OECD STOCKS

CLOSING STOCKS
Total
Government1
Industry
Total
controlled
Millions of Barrels
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
4Q2012
1Q2013
2Q2013
3Q2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4199
4142
4193
4226
4271
4211
4246
4237
4277
4151
4170
4233
4299
1529
1536
1536
1539
1542
1547
1581
1577
1582
1584
1586
1581
1579
Government1
Industry
controlled
Days of Fwd. Demand 2
2669
2605
2657
2687
2728
2664
2665
2660
2696
2567
2584
2652
2720
90
90
92
92
92
92
93
91
92
91
93
93
93
33
33
34
34
33
34
35
34
34
35
35
35
34
57
56
59
59
59
58
58
57
58
56
58
58
59
1 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
2 Days of forward demand calculated using actual demand except in 3Q2014 (when latest forecasts are used).
56
16J ANUARY 2015
T ABLES
Table 6
1
IEA MEMBER COUNTRY DESTINATIONS OF SELECTED CRUDE STREAMS
Year Earlier
2011
2012
2013
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Oct 13 change
0.69
0.83
1.24
0.76
0.85
1.26
0.74
0.79
1.21
0.76
0.77
1.25
0.79
0.73
1.27
0.75
0.87
1.17
0.47
0.93
1.08
0.43
0.98
1.05
0.56
1.00
1.11
0.67
0.83
1.14
0.76
0.79
1.10
-0.10
0.04
0.03
0.37
0.02
0.40
0.44
0.05
0.45
0.45
0.01
0.43
0.47
0.02
0.45
0.44
0.01
0.45
0.40
0.01
0.40
0.36
0.05
0.50
0.32
0.02
0.47
0.31
0.11
0.47
0.20
0.05
0.55
0.43
0.03
0.51
-0.23
0.01
0.04
0.29
0.11
0.34
0.49
0.26
0.33
0.38
0.25
0.31
0.31
0.22
0.24
0.37
0.29
0.28
0.33
0.51
0.20
0.49
0.50
0.21
0.57
0.51
0.26
0.29
0.52
0.23
0.25
0.72
0.18
0.35
0.17
0.19
-0.09
0.56
-0.01
0.08
0.08
0.57
0.22
0.09
0.65
0.28
0.10
0.64
0.30
0.07
0.65
0.33
0.07
0.71
0.29
0.12
0.56
0.25
0.04
0.62
0.25
0.06
0.63
0.17
0.00
0.62
0.27
0.22
0.61
0.30
0.10
0.70
-0.03
0.12
-0.09
0.23
0.04
0.12
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.05
-
0.10
0.01
0.06
-
0.11
0.03
0.12
0.05
0.11
0.03
0.15
-
0.05
-
0.10
-
0.55
0.51
0.16
0.33
0.03
0.30
0.03
0.24
0.00
0.33
0.04
0.26
0.01
0.28
0.01
0.28
0.31
0.23
0.04
0.23
0.00
0.76
0.05
-
0.69
0.08
-
0.61
0.07
-
0.62
0.04
-
0.62
0.08
-
0.62
0.08
-
0.71
0.09
-
0.74
0.11
-
0.69
0.07
-
0.49
0.09
-
0.60
0.02
-
-0.11
0.07
-
0.82
0.12
-
0.73
0.14
-
0.70
0.14
-
0.79
0.13
-
0.64
0.15
-
0.66
0.13
-
0.67
0.13
-
0.73
0.13
-
0.65
0.13
-
0.65
0.11
-
0.77
0.19
-
-0.12
-0.08
-
1.25
0.00
1.41
-
1.49
-
1.53
-
1.56
0.00
-
1.67
0.01
-
1.81
0.00
1.74
-
1.93
0.01
1.67
0.00
1.54
-
0.14
-
0.06
0.64
0.02
0.02
0.55
0.07
0.03
0.47
0.06
0.01
0.46
0.05
0.02
0.53
0.16
0.58
0.07
0.53
-
0.56
-
0.58
-
0.60
-
0.03
0.37
-
0.23
-
0.01
1.69
-
0.00
1.86
-
0.00
1.79
-
1.76
-
1.74
-
1.68
-
1.53
-
1.50
-
1.42
-
1.59
-
1.82
-
-0.23
-
0.06
0.62
-
0.07
0.53
-
0.06
0.59
0.00
0.05
0.57
-
0.02
0.60
0.02
0.71
0.01
0.58
0.05
0.45
0.04
0.64
0.07
0.60
-
0.07
0.58
-
0.02
-
0.29
0.01
0.03
0.88
0.04
0.00
0.57
0.03
0.22
0.02
0.23
-
0.13
0.02
0.34
0.03
0.27
0.05
0.69
0.02
0.59
0.03
0.34
-
0.25
-
0.53
0.45
0.05
0.24
0.58
0.04
0.07
0.53
0.03
0.57
0.02
0.01
0.58
0.03
0.51
0.04
0.59
0.03
0.64
0.04
0.51
0.01
0.55
0.01
0.60
0.03
-0.05
-0.03
Saudi Light & Extra Light

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Saudi Medium
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Iraqi Basrah Light2

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Kuwait Blend
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Iranian Light
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Iranian Heavy3
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Venezuelan 22 API and heavier

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Mexican Maya
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Canada Heavy
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
BFOE
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Russian Urals
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Kazakhstan
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Libya Light and Medium

Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Nigerian Light4
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
1 Data based on monthly submissions from IEA countries to the crude oil import register (in '000 bbl), subject to availability. May differ from Table 8 of the Report.
IEA Americas includes United States and Canada.
IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia.
IEA Asia Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan.
2 Iraqi Total minus Kirkuk.
3 Iranian Total minus Iranian Light.
4 33 API and lighter (e.g., Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua Iboe and Oso Condensate).
16J ANUARY 2015
57
T ABLES
Table 7
REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS1,2
(thousand barrels per day)
Year Earlier
2011
2012
2013
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Oct 13 % change
6870
8988
6609
6101
9346
6761
5130
8926
6553
4670
8404
6519
4385
8201
6954
4331
8480
5931
4336
9009
6315
4293
9043
6352
4084
9178
6308
3833
9242
6084
4727
8674
6147
-19%
7%
-1%
22468
22208
20608
19593
19540
18742
19660
19688
19570
19159
19548
-2%
30
318
568
20
287
620
17
382
546
14
412
517
19
386
544
9
410
532
7
475
520
3
502
518
9
520
475
11
479
554
12
458
534
-12%
5%
4%
916
927
945
943
949
950
1002
1023
1004
1044
1004
42
298
884
20
381
900
17
313
927
11
324
949
28
341
1040
23
360
891
16
301
912
14
285
862
13
301
999
21
326
1016
19
384
881
1224
1301
1257
1285
1409
1275
1228
1160
1314
1362
1284
762
222
95
730
212
86
659
106
83
583
92
72
567
150
89
769
124
95
660
113
70
728
70
63
567
186
92
679
138
83
648
20
82
5%
579%
1%
1079
1028
848
747
805
988
843
861
845
900
750
20%
77
397
58
73
398
62
81
447
74
99
511
82
81
377
57
121
457
50
94
583
43
60
511
41
140
620
51
95
418
101
126
562
71
-25%
-26%
43%
532
533
602
693
514
628
720
612
810
614
759
-19%
72
1044
147
59
984
185
58
1120
162
21
1278
170
200
1092
152
62
1094
221
41
1173
175
48
1109
133
54
1268
180
68
960
216
16
1595
157
323%
-40%
38%
1263
1227
1340
1468
1444
1377
1389
1290
1502
1244
1768
-30%
268
537
153
206
521
224
165
552
242
155
539
290
127
600
304
132
650
205
134
666
183
121
740
198
140
644
165
191
476
150
162
476
246
18%
0%
-39%
958
951
960
985
1030
986
984
1059
949
817
884
-8%
871
700
367
813
636
357
812
790
386
746
803
383
619
752
464
728
789
355
682
699
372
682
777
399
637
682
307
595
697
298
915
917
365
-35%
-24%
-18%
1938
1806
1988
1932
1835
1873
1754
1858
1626
1590
2197
-28%
2122
3516
2272
1921
3419
2433
1810
3710
2421
1629
3959
2464
1640
3697
2649
1844
3884
2349
1633
4010
2276
1657
3992
2214
1560
4221
2269
1660
3492
2419
1899
4411
2336
-13%
-21%
4%
7910
7773
7940
8052
7987
8077
7919
7863
8050
7571
8646
-12%
8993
12504
8881
8022
12765
9194
6940
12635
8973
6300
12363
8982
6025
11899
9604
6175
12364
8280
5969
13019
8590
5950
13036
8566
5644
13399
8577
5493
12734
8502
6626
13085
8483
-17%
-3%
0%
30378
29982
28549
27646
27527
26819
27579
27551
27620
26730
28194
-5%
Crude Oil
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
LPG
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
4%
Naphtha
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
7%
-15%
15%
6%
Gasoline3
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Jet & Kerosene
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Gasoil/Diesel
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Heavy Fuel Oil
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Other Products
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Total Products
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
Total Oil
Americas
Europe
Asia Oceania
Total OECD
1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels.
2 Excludes intra-regional trade.
3 Includes additives.
58
16J ANUARY 2015
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Without prejudice to the terms and conditions on the IEA website at
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thisOilMarketReport(OMR)anditsrelatedpublications,theExecutiveDirector
and the Secretariat of the IEA are responsible for the publication of the OMR.
Althoughsome of the dataare suppliedbyIEA Membercountrygovernments,
largely on the basis of information they in turn receive from oil companies,
neither these governments nor these oil companies necessarily share the
Secretariats views or conclusions as expressed in the OMR. The OMR is
preparedforgeneralcirculationandisdistributedforgeneralinformationonly.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed in the OMR constitutes an
offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any
options,futuresorotherderivativesrelatedtosuchsecurities.
AssetoutintheTerms,theOECD/IEAownsthecopyrightinthisOMR.However,
in relation to the edition of OMR made available to Subscribers (as defined in
the Terms), all Argus information is sourced as Copyright 2015 Argus Media
LimitedandispublishedherewiththepermissionofArgus.Thespotcrudeand
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16 January 2015

Macroeconomic weakness continues to restrain global oil demand

OPEC output rose by 80 kb/d in December to 30.48 mb/d, as Iraqi

Global refinery crude throughputs surged to a new record high of

OECD commercial inventories drew less than usual in November,

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

16J ANUARY 2015

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Global Oil Demand (2013-2015)

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2013

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015

Annual Chg (%)

Annual Chg (mb/d)

Changes from last OMR (mb/d)

0.05 -0.03 -0.09 -0.02

16J ANUARY 2015

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

OECD: Total Products Demand

OECD: Motor Gasoline Demand

16J ANUARY 2015

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

OECD Americas: Total Products

US50: Total Products Demand

US50: Motor Gasoline Demand

US50: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

16J ANUARY 2015

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Mexico: Total Products Demand

Mexico: Motor Gasoline Demand

OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - November 2014

OECD Asia & Oceania

* Including US territo ries

16J ANUARY 2015

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

France: Total Products Demand

France: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

Netherlands: Total Products Demand

Netherlands: Naphtha Demand

Japan: Total Products Demand

16J ANUARY 2015

Japan: Motor Gasoline Demand

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Korea: Total Products Demand

Korea: LPG Demand

Non-OECD: Demand by Product

LPG & Ethane

Jet Fuel & Kerosene

Residual Fuel Oil

16J ANUARY 2015

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

China: Total Products Demand

China: Motor Gasoline Demand

China: Demand by Product

LPG & Ethane

Jet Fuel & Kerosene

16J ANUARY 2015

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Brazil: Total Products Demand

Brazil: Gasoil/Diesel Demand

Non-OECD: Demand by Region

Argentina: Total Products Demand

Argentina: Gasoil/Diesel Demand