Professional Documents
Culture Documents
In order to estimate liquidity needs, banks need to forecast the future deposit and
loan activity.
Liquidity management involves considerable subjectivity because of the
uncertainty in forecasting the future.
It is thus prudent to adjust the estimated need upwards to avoid a liquidity
squeeze in the form of a cash shortage that could result in lost lending
opportunities, reduced depositor confidence and regulatory suspicions concerning
safety and soundness.
Sources and uses of funds method:
Bank management evaluates potential future changes in its individual
asset and liability accounts
Loans: the demand for funds in different lending areas is estimated from
past loan histories and future economic projections.
Deposits: are influenced by economic and competitive market conditions.
Influenced by interest rates (monetary policy & international financial
markets) low rates encourage depositors to look for better investments.
Summarised in a sources and uses of funds statement.
Deposit withdrawals are non-discretionary in that they cannot be
controlled by the bank, whereas loans are discretionary.
Basel framework for assessing and managing bank liquidity: (1) measuring
and managing net funding requirements, (2) managing market access, and
(3) contingency planning.
Structure-of-deposits method:
Lists the different types of deposits and assign a probability of withdrawal
to each.
More liquidity required for high-risk unstable deposits.
Core funds: deposits of loyal, local depositors that tend to be stable.
Asset liquidity
maturities shorten, interest rate declines in line with the upward slope of
the yield curve.
Treasury notes
and
Commonwealth
government
bonds
Interbank loans
Loans to money
market dealers
Bank-accepted
bills
Negotiable
certificates of
deposits
Semi-government
securities
Repurchase
agreements
(repos)
Commercial paper
(promissory
notes)
Other securities
used as collateral.
Effectively a short-term collateralised loan.
Short-term securities issued by companies.
Carry higher credit risks than securities issued by banks
and thus have higher promised yields.
Corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
Liability Liquidity
The main advantage of liability management is that assets can be shifted from
lower earning money market instruments to higher earning loans and longer term
securities. Greater asset diversification may also be possible.
The main risks include:
Increased interest rate risk: if interest rates increase suddenly, the cost of
funds could rise substantially as borrowed funds come due and must be
rolled over at higher rates of interest.
Increased financial risk: increased variability of EPS due to increased debt
as a proportion of total assets (financial leverage). Bank managers need to
consider the risk preferences of shareholders when using liabilities to meet
liquidity needs.
Capital market risk: occurs due to low interest levels that motivate
investors to transfer deposit funds to the capital market in an attempt to
earn higher rates of return.
Bond carry trade strategy: implemented by borrowing short-term funds and
investing in longer term securities. As long as interest rates do not increase, the
carry trade can earn a positive yield spread. However there is an interest rate risk,
as rising interest rates collapse the positive yield spread and result in capital
losses on the Treasury bonds.
Estimating the availability and cost of external funds is a challenge.
Medium-term notes: debt securities that are continuously offered by a firm, as
opposed to underwritten debt securities sold within a relatively short time period.
Maturities range from 9 months to 30 years. MTNs help avoid price risks in
underwriting that could affect the cost of the debt to the bank. MTNs can be sold
in exact quantities and maturities demanded by investors.
Funds management involves comparing total liquidity needs with total liquidity
sources.
Funds management must ensure that sources of liquidity are sufficient to meet
liquidity needs, through:
1. The bank may impose maturity mismatch limits and encourage stable
funding sources, which will place a ceiling on liquidity needs
2. Liquidity may be sourced by holding liquid assets which can be readily
sold, but careful planning is required to select a desirable level of these
assets and a diversified mix of appropriate assets
3. The bank should aim for a diversified funding base, which provides the
bank with a further source of liquidity management.
Access to interbank markets, domestic financial markets and foreign currency
markets can enable the bank to reduce its risk by avoiding excessive reliance on
any one counterparty or market.
Liquidity Ratios
Three basic ratio measures of bank liquidity:
1. Simple liquidity ratio: liquid assets over total assets.
2. Loans/deposits
3. Loans/non-deposit liabilities
Another approach to measuring liquidity is to account for changes over time in
both liquidity needs and sources. This approach is better than focusing on one or
the other parts of the liquidity problem because it evaluates liquidity relative to
bank needs.
Liquidity shortfall: the probability that all liquidity will be used up.
Banks are under constant liquidity pressures. Since no bank can function without
adequate liquidity, it is one of the most fundamental aspects of bank
management.
Liquidity risk is the risk that a bank will not be able to meet obligations as they fall
due, such as when customers wish to withdraw funds from their deposits or draw
down loans which have been approved.
Although adequate liquidity to avoid a crisis is one dimension of the problem, for
most ongoing banks it is operational liquidity for the bank as a going concern that
is the real challenge. In this respect the central issue that management must
evaluate is the risk and return trade-offs.
The sources and uses approach to estimating liquidity needs evaluates the effects
of deposit inflows and outflows and changing loan demands on bank liquidity.
5. Identify measures of bank liquidity and their trends over time in the banking
industry
Funds management involves comparing total liquidity needs with total liquidity
sources.
Three basic ratio measures of bank liquidity are (a) simple liquidity ratio, (b)
loans/ deposits and (c) loans/non-deposit liabilities.
Accounting for changes over time in both liquidity needs and sources evaluates
liquidity relative to bank needs. This can be done by dividing liquid assets and
liabilities in period t by estimated liquidity needs in period t.
Optimum liquidity is achieved by balancing risks and returns. The bank must trade
off the cost of maintaining excessive liquidity and the cost of insufficient liquidity.
If a bank has liquidity problems there is a risk that this will have adverse
implications for the banking system, possibly causing a panic and a run on the
banks.
The regulator is concerned to protect depositors and the financial system as a
whole. Consequently, it requires that banks have a liquidity management strategy
in place which effectively covers the liquidity requirements of a bank in the
ordinary course of business the going concern scenario and in the name
crisis scenario.
Increased global volatility has caused higher variability in profits and an increased
risk of doing business in the financial markets.
In response to increased risk, the need to satisfy customers demands, generate
stable fee income, and increase their capital to asset ratios, banks have
developed new financial services that do not appear on their balance sheets.
There are two categories of off-balance sheet transactions:
1. Market-related: derivative activities (interest rate, forex, equity etc.)
comprise 95% of off-balance sheet activities, although the introduction of
AASB 139 means many of them are now showed on the balance sheet.
2. Non-market related: direct credit substitutes, performance-related
contingencies, etc comprise 5% of off-balance sheet activities.
Over-the-counter (OTC) financial instruments is growing the fastest. These are
customised financial instruments negotiated between two parties, rather than
standardised exchange-traded instruments.
Contingent claim: an obligation by a bank to provide funds (lend funds or buy
securities) if a contingency is realised. Bank has underwritten an obligation of a
third party, and in case of default the bank has an immediate loss. These claims
do not appear on the balance sheet until they are exercised.
Financial Guarantees
Use of SLCs
Commonly used in connection with the issue of debt obligations as backup lines of
credit.
Also used in connection with building contractors obligation to complete a
construction project. If the project is not completed before a certain date, the
bank is required to pay the beneficiary. In this case, the SLC is a substitute for a
surety bond bonds sold by insurance companies to insure against loss, damage
or default (these bonds are a special type of insurance policy and NOT a debt
obligation).
SLCs are used to ensure the delivery of merchandise, the performance of options
or forward contracts, and to back other loans.
If a banks credit rating decreases, the value of the SLCs issued would decline,
and the ability to issue new SLCs will deteriorate.
Risks of SLCs
Because bankers accept only those credits that they are believe are least likely to
default, APRA considers their credit risk minimal, and are classified as direct credit
substitutes.
Many SLCs are backed by deposits and/or collateral to further reduce risk, and
terms are sometimes periodically renegotiated due to changes in risk over time.
When SLCs are activated, banks may record the unreimbursed balance as a
commercial loan.
Banks can manage risk by limiting the amount of SLCs they issue, diversifying
their portfolio of SLCs, and increasing capital.
SLCs subject banks to liquidity (funding) risk and capital risk, since losses can
rapidly accumulate in cases of economic downturn that can cause more than one
borrower to default at the same time.
Interest rate risk is present either from possible changes in their duration gap
or the increased/decreased likelihood of default as interest rate levels
increase/decrease.
SLCs expose banks to an ill-defined legal risk. Most SLCs contain material adverse
change clauses that enable the bank to withdraw its commitment under certain
conditions. This is needed to deter the firm from taking excessive risks and
exploiting the banks guarantee.
Pricing of SLCs
Upfront fees & annual fees, eg. Upfront fee of 1% of outstanding and unused
guarantee, and annual fees 25-150 bp lower than loans of equivalent maturity
and risk.
Annual fees are lower than loan fees because of the lower administrative cost and
other expenses, and also because no funding is required.
Bank Loan Commitments
Loan commitment: a banks promise to a customer to make a future loan or a
guarantee under certain conditions.
Can be formal or informal, however some agreements are not legally binding.
Major benefit is the assurance of funds to the borrower and fees or compensating
balances of equivalent value to the bank.
Drawback is that the bank acquiring a credit exposure in the future because it
may have to make a loan or a guarantee.
Line of Credit
Line of credit: an agreement between a bank and a customer that the bank will
entertain a request for a loan from that customer. Bank will usually make the loan
even if not obliged to do so.
Frequently informal, with no fee for service.
If formal, fee is charged.
Revolving Loan Commitments
Revolving loan commitment: a formal agreement between the bank and a
customer, which obliges the bank to lend funds according to the terms of the
contract.
The contract specifies the terms under which loans will be made, and the
customer pays the bank a commitment fee (facility fee), for the privilege of
borrowing at the future date.
May contain clauses that release the bank from its obligation if there is a
substantial change in the customers financial condition.
Protects the borrower from availability risk and credit risk.
Revolving commitments fix the risk premium, in contrast to a confirmed credit line
that sets the premium at the time funds are drawn down.
Revolving loan commitments are tantamount to options contracts, wherein the
bank must offer a loan at the agreed upon premium.
Because revolving commitments expose the bank to credit risk, the commitment
fee is priced to capture this bank risk.
Funding Risk
Funding (liquidity risk/quantity risk) is the major risk if a large number of
borrowers draw down their loans simultaneously, as the bank may not have
sufficient funds. This is most likely to occur during periods of tight credit.
Because the bank is obliged to make the loans, it may have to raise additional
funds, which is difficult during tight credit, to honour the commitments.
If the bank does not honour the commitment, a customer with a legally binding
commitment could bring legal action against the bank. Such an action could
damage the banks reputation, which could impair its future growth and
profitability.
Certain types of commitments are considered irrevocable (i.e. unconditional and
binding). According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS 1986), these
include the following:
Asset sale and repurchase agreements an arrangement whereby a bank
sells a loan, security or non-current asset to a third party with a
commitment to repurchase the asset after a certain time, or in the event of
a certain contingency.
Outright forward purchases a commitment to purchase a loan, security
or other asset at a specified future date, typically on prearranged terms.
Bank standby facilities where the bank commits to pay the beneficiary if
the account party defaults on an obligation.
Note issuance facilities which are explained in the next section.
Similarly, certain types of commitments are considered revocable. These
include credit lines and undrawn overdraft facilities.
Derivatives
Derivatives: financial instruments that are derived from underlying securities, eg.
swaps, options, futures, forwards etc.
Most derivatives are reported on the balance sheet.
Players in the derivative markets:
Counterparties to the derivatives (ultimate end users).
Agents market participants acting on behalf of counterparties, and
earning brokerage fees.
Traders/dealers (including speculators and arbitragers) market
participants who trade for themselves. They buy and resell for a profit by
maintaining a spread between buy and sell price. Important contributor to
market liquidity.
The nature and size of derivative contracts combined with the volatility and speed
of derivative contract repricing means that contracts can result in high levels of
losses if risk is not properly monitored and managed.
Counterparty risk: the risk that a counterparty in a financial transaction will
default, or fail to fully perform its obligations, resulting in a financial loss to the
other party. Credit exposure is measured not by the notional amount of the
contract but by the cost of replacing its cash flows in the market, eg. in an interest
rate swap, the PV of expected cash flows on the underlying instruments.
Market risk is the risk that the market price of the derivative security will
change. This risk is also referred to as the price risk of the underlying instrument.
Most banks break overall market risk into components, including interest rate risk,
exchange rate risk, share price risk, commodity price risk and others.
Liquidity risk involves both funding risk and market-liquidity risk.
Funding risk is the risk of adverse cash flow pressures arising from
derivatives positions.
Market-liquidity risk arises when positions cannot be eliminated quickly, or
offset, as the market reprices.
Operating risk is an often-overlooked area of commercial bank risk that can
arise owing to:
Inadequate internal controls the complexity of some derivatives, human
error and fraud are all sources of risk that demand internal monitoring and
control by management
Valuation risk the valuation of some derivatives relies on sophisticated
mathematical models that are highly dependent on assumptions about
market conditions, which together can make valuation a difficult task.
Marking to market is relatively easy where financial data feeds such as
Reuters, Bloomberg and Telerate can be used to get the latest prices, but
where such pricing is not available, marking to model is the only option
available
Regulatory risk as already mentioned, regulators are scrutinising overthe-counter (OTC) derivatives because of their explosive growth, and this
attention is drawing changes in accounting procedures, capital adequacy,
restrictions on activities, and other banking practices.
Legal risk the OTC market for derivatives is private in nature, fast-developing
and innovative in security design, all of which means that disputes in this new
market will require a period of legal cases to clearly establish the rights and
obligations of all participants. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association
(ISDA) has established some rules in cooperation with most large industrialised
countries, but the differences in national bankruptcy laws raises legal concerns
about the risks in international deals.
Aggregation risk comes about from the complex interconnections that can
occur in derivatives deals which involve a number of markets and instruments. It
is difficult to assess the risks to individual parties or groups of parties in such
transactions. Risk aggregation methods are relatively new and are still evolving.
The largest banks are best able to manage risks, owing to the operational
demands of capital and expertise. There is question whether derivatives are too
risky for banks.
There are two derivatives markets:
1. Privately traded OTC market dominated by banks and large securities firms
that custom-design products for users
2. Organised exchanges that offer standardised contracts and a clearing
house for handling transactions eg. Sydney Futures Exchange, ASX
Derivatives market.
The growth of derivatives and the potential for unknown risks had led regulators
(APRA) to be weary. Whilst most participants are reputable financial institutions,
there is a risk of fraudulent participants and competition driving some large banks
to take precarious positions and expose themselves to sudden liquidity risk.
Types of Swaps
Currency swaps include the exchange of interest payments in different currencies,
as well as the exchange of a principal amount at the start and end of the swap.
Currency swaps are used to hedge interest rate gaps and cash flow risks.
Interest rate swaps involve the exchange of a stream of interest payments over
time. These include:
Coupon swaps: interest payments are based on a fixed rate and a floating
rate.
Basis swaps: interest payments are based on two different floating rates of
interest.
Cross-currency interest rate swap (currency swap): may involve 3
counterparties, with interest payments based on fixed-rate flows in one
currency and interest rate, and the other interest payments based on
floating-rate flows in another currency interest rate.
Plain deal currency swap: between two counterparties with equal
interest payments in different currencies.
Equity swaps: exchanges of cash flows in which one side of the contract is
determined by the returns of an equity index, and the other based on a money
market interest rate. One party will have an exposure to the share market which it
wants to convert into an interest stream, whilst the other will have an exposure to
the money market which it wants to convert to a share market return.
Re-read Managerial issues pg. 440
Risks Associated with Swaps
It is not uncommon for banks to have swap levels that exceed their on-balance
sheet total assets.
Counterparties in swap agreements face:
Credit risk: risk that one fo the parties to the swap arrangement will
default, resulting in a liability to the bank. To reduce credit risk, SLCs can
be used to guarantee payments, or parties may agree to cash-settle the
replacement costs of the swap every 6-12 months.
Market (price) risk: the risk that interest rates or exchange rates may
change and have an adverse effect on one or more of the participants in a
swap agreement. Price risk can be controlled by entering an offsetting
swap, or selling the swap on the secondary market.
Interest rate collar: an OTC option that combines ceiling and floor.
Credit swap: two banks exchange interest and principal payments on portions of
their loan portfolios. This is a common type of credit derivative. Allows banks to
further diversify their credit risk.
Total return swap: Bank A swaps payments received on a risky loan portfolio for a
cash flow stream from Bank B comprising a benchmark interest rate plus some
negotiated compensation for the credit risk premium it has given up. This
transfers the credit risk from Bank A to Bank B, even though Bank B did not make
the loan.
The key advantage of credit derivatives is that they transfer credit risk without
any sale of the underlying debt contact it allows banks to reduce exposure to
concentrated credit risks and thereby diversify its loan portfolio. This is important
if, for example the bank holds a large concentration of loans in a particular
industry.
Advisory and management fees provide a fairly riskless source of bank income.
Cash management
Cash management systems for business concerns are one of the most popular off
balance-sheet service areas offered by banks.
Cash management systems are used to help business concerns collect
remittances and use their bank balances efficiently.
Locked boxes are part of cash management systems. These are post office boxes
where customers remittances are sent by mail and then collected by bankers who
deposit them in a business concerns account (see chapter 16 for further
discussion). Banks receive fees for collecting and processing the funds.
With the exception of the computers used to process the funds and an increase in
cash (from the collected funds), no other specific items on their balance sheets
are directly attributable to cash management systems.
Networking
Networking refers to links among different companies that seek to exploit
comparative advantages in the production and delivery of a product (strategic
alliance).
For example, a bank may use networks to sell insurance, provide managed funds
services, and other services.
Networks permit banks to expand certain specialised services without a major
investment on their part.
Summary
1. Outline the reasons off-balance-sheet activities are expanding rapidly to meet
market demands.
During the 1990s and early 2000s, a dramatic shift occurred in the way
banks do business. In response to increases in financial markets volatility
in the 1980s and 1990s, and the demands of their customers for riskmanagement services, banks adapted by expanding beyond making
traditional loans and gathering deposits to fee-generating activities that do
not appear on their balance sheets.
2. Describe the different types of contingent claims or guarantees offered by banks.
Off-balance-sheet activities include a variety of commitments and
contingent claims that business firms are increasingly demanding.
Financial guarantees are created when a bank commits to stand behind the
obligation of a third party.
Standby letters of credit are guarantees of payment to a beneficiary if the
account party defaults on an obligation.
A loan commitment is a banks promise to make a future loan or
guarantee, under certain conditions.
Note issuance facilities are created when banks guarantee the sale of a
borrowers promissory notes at or below a given interest rate.
3. Discuss the growing derivative securities activity of banks, which is challenging
regulators to control potential risks inherent in this growth market.