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Arctic war is unlikely
Beckhusen 12 (Beckhusen, Robert. "Russia and Canada Gear Up for Arctic Non-War | Danger
Room | WIRED." Wired.com. Conde Nast Digital, 07 Aug. 2012. Web. 23 July 2014.
<http://www.wired.com/2012/08/arctic/>. Robert Beckhusen is a contributor at wired.com Fred).
war is exceedingly unlikely because Russia would lose. For one, the United States
has an overwhelming and decisive advantage in submarines. U.S. subs are
more advanced, there are more of them, and their crews are better trained. Its unlikely Arctic
nations would also begin killing each other over low-key and remote
territorial disputes.
But a
Hating Russias economy is a full-time job for many people. Owen Matthews in
Newsweek is perhaps the most colorful of the bunch, but the difference between Matthews and other
Western journalists is primarily one of degree not of kind. Ive been following Russia very closely for about
a decade now, and Ive simply lost count of the number of analyses Ive read arguing that the end is nigh
and that the economys final implosion is mere months away. These articles vary greatly in quality, but the
basic indictment of Russias economy consists of a number of actually quite reasonable observations on
after getting
decimated during the worse days of the financial crisis, Russias
economy has been plugging along with steady and unremarkable
growth in the 3-4% range, hardly world beating but actually faster than almost
the countrys corruption, red tape, and over-reliance on natural resources. However,
every country in the EU. As more time has passed and Russias economy has
defied predictions by continuing to not collapse, Ive become increasingly
convinced that its economic stability has been somewhat underrated and
that, despite its many faults, its basic economic model is quite likely to endure
through the short and medium terms. I certainly dont think that Russia is going to
become some sort of economic hegemon, but it seems far more likely than not that it will evolve gradually,
and not through some titanic rupture or revolutionary upheaval. But my hunches and inclinations arent
very good evidence, so I thought I would put a few charts together which show why I think that Russias
economy is basically going to stay stable over the next several years and that its a huge mistake to
predict a cataclysm which will sweep away the dread Putin. 1.The price of Brent crude has stayed
remarkably robust despite chronic economic weakness in the developed world. I suppose its possible that
the EU will never emerge from its current doldrums, but I think that the developed world will eventually get
out of its funk and start to grow again. When it does that growth will likely drive the price of oil even
higher, or at least prevent it from going much lower. 2.
foreign reserves , some of the largest in the entire world. Although you
often hear, as in Matthews piece, that the Russians used to be responsible with their oil money, now
between the oil price graph and Russias foreign reserves, their shapes are almost identical. While the
chance that Russia will suffer a slow and gradual decline in competitiveness, but what Im pushing back
against is not that argument but the argument that the whole house of cards is going to collapse in the
October 2012 Russia ran a budget surplus of about 1.4%, smaller than the 2011 figure (3.2%) but a surplus
nonetheless. Russias total level of government spending (about 32% of GDP) hardly seems outrageous or
unsustainable. Additionally, despite a lot of loose and foolish talk from the Russian defense ministry about
it looming re-armament campaign, Russias budget spending is more weighted towards the social sphere
than the military industrial complex. Courtesy of the Gaidar institute, heres a graph showing where
Russias consolidated government spending was directed in the first ten months of 2012: The Gaidar
institute is hardly a Kremlin outfit, indeed the overall tone of the report to which I linked is actually quite
gloomy* and critical of the authorities, and considering its track record I dont think that it would have
spun the numbers in a more pro-Putin direction. When analyzing any countrys budget posture you need to
focus on where the money is actually being spent. While theres been an awful lot of talk about
comprehensively re-arming the Russian military,
(unemployment is obviously highly politically sensitive in performance legitimacy regimes like Russias).
There is a corporate
governance issue and an over-reliance on oil and gas at a time when
they may lose their pricing power in Europe once U.S. starts
exporting natural gas.Russia will lose out to strong competition in
the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector and elsewhere. 2. Weak
Institutions Russias institutional environment ranking 133 out of 144 countries in the World
Investments in Edinburgh, said in an interview with Forbes.
Economic Forums Global Competitiveness Index 20122013, the development of the countrys institutions
characterized by much higher levels of corruption than other countries with similar levels of development.
While Russia is the sixth largest economy worldwide in GDP, corruption levels are higher than in countries
such as Togo or Uganda, according to Transparency International. Some argue that corruption has
become engrained in the countrys system of wealth creation and distribution. In this perspective,
corruption may be seen by some as a necessary evil to maintain stability and control over productive
processes in the economy. 3.
Gazprom will
stop marketing to U.S. and European investors after the Crimea crisis and work to
increase bond and shareholders from the Middle East, Latin America
and Asia, especially China. Senior managers at Russias gas-export
courting-u-s-investors-after-crimea-crisis.html)Russias largest company OAO
told
investor relations staff to find more shareholders in Asia and other
emerging markets after completing investor meetings in New York and
monopoly, which has a market value of $90 billion and $37 billion of outstanding bonds,
London in early March, two people with knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be named
President Vladimir Putin travels to Beijing in May hoping to sign a 30-year gas-supply
deal.Russia is grateful to the people of China for their position on Crimea and Ukraine, Putin
wrote the Russian Embassy in Beijing on its official Sina Weibo account on March 25.
. The United States is currently ranked as the most competitive economy in the world by
the World Economic Forum. These rankings have been produced every year since 1979, and the U.S.
a decade now, again a full percentage point higher than the European average
position has been fairly constant, slipping sometimes in recent years to small northern European countries like Sweden, Denmark, and
Finland (whose collective population is twenty million, less than that of the state of Texas). America's superior growth trajectory might be petering
the general
pointthat America is a highly dynamic economy at the cutting
edge, despite its enormous sizestill holds. Look at the
industries of the future. Nanotechnology applied science
dealing with the control of matter at the atomic or molecular
out, and perhaps its growth will be more "normal" for an advanced industrial country for the next few years. But
trial productsis already a multibillion-dollar industry. It, too, is dominated by the United States. More than $3.3 billion in venture financing went to
U.S. biotech companies in 2005, while European companies received just half that amount. Follow-on equity offerings (that is, post-IPO) in the
United States were more than seven times those in Europe. And while European IPOs attracted more cash in 2005, IPO activity is highly volatilein 2004,
U.S. IPO values were more than four times Europe's. As with nanotechnology, American companies excel at turning ideas into marketable and lucrative
products. U.S. biotech revenues approached $50 billion in 2005, five times greater than those in Europe and representing 76 percent of global
revenues.* Manufacturing has, of course, been leaving the United States, shifting to the developing world and turning America into a service
economy. This scares many Americans and Europeans, who wonder what their countries will make if everything is "made in China." But
Solvency
Scientific diplomacy does not solve
Dickson 10 (David. Director of SciDev.net. Science in diplomacy: On tap but not on top. June
28, 2010. http://scidevnet.wor...onference-2010 FRED).
Theres a general consensus in both the scientific and political worlds that the principle
of science diplomacy, at least in the somewhat restricted sense of the need to get more and better
science into international negotiations, is a desirable objective. There is less agreement,
however, on how far the concept can or indeed should be extended to embrace
broader goals and objectives, in particular attempts to use science to achieve
political or diplomatic goals at the international level. Science, despite its
international characteristics, is no substitute for effective diplomacy . Any more
than diplomatic initiatives necessarily lead to good science. These seem to have been the broad
conclusions to emerge from a three-day meeting at Wilton Park in Sussex, UK, organised by the British
Foreign Office and the Royal Society, and attended by scientists, government officials and politicians from
17 countries around the world. The definition of science diplomacy varied widely among participants. Some
saw it as a subcategory of public diplomacy, or what US diplomats have recently been promoting as soft
power (the carrot rather than the stick approach, as a participant described it). Others preferred to see
it as a core element of the broader concept of innovation diplomacy, covering the politics of engagement
in the familiar fields of international scientific exchange and technology transfer, but raising these to a
higher level as a diplomatic objective. Whatever definition is used, three particular aspects of the debate
became the focus of attention during the Wilton Park meeting: how science can inform the diplomatic
process; how diplomacy can assist science in achieving its objectives; and, finally, how science can provide
a channel for quasi-diplomatic exchanges by forming an apparently neutral bridge between countries.
There was little disagreement on the first of these. Indeed for many, given the increasing number of
international issues with a scientific dimension that politicians have to deal with, this is essentially what
the core of science diplomacy should be about. Chris Whitty, for example, chief scientist at the UKs
Department for International Development, described how knowledge about the threat raised by the
spread of the highly damaging plant disease stem rust had been an important input by researchers into
discussions by politicians and diplomats over strategies for persuading Afghan farmers to shift from the
production of opium to wheat. Others pointed out that the scientific community had played a major role in
drawing attention to issues such as the links between chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere and the
growth of the ozone hole, or between carbon dioxide emissions and climate change. Each has made
essential contributions to policy decisions. Acknowledging this role for science has some important
implications. No-one dissented when Rohinton Medhora, from Canadas International Development
Research Centre, complained of the lack of adequate scientific expertise in the embassies of many
countries of the developed and developing world alike. Nor perhaps predictably was there any major
disagreement that diplomatic initiatives can both help and occasionally hinder the process of science. On
the positive side, such diplomacy can play a significant role in facilitating science exchange and the launch
of international science projects, both essential for the development of modern science. Europes
framework programme of research programmes was quoted as a successful advantage of the first of
these. Examples of the second range from the establishment of the European Organisation of Nuclear
Research (usually known as CERN) in Switzerland after the Second World War, to current efforts to build a
large new nuclear fusion facility (ITER). Less positively, increasing restrictions on entry to certain countries,
and in particular the United States after the 9/11 attacks in New York and elsewhere, have significantly
impeded scientific exchange programmes. Here the challenge for diplomats was seen as helping to find
ways to ease the burdens of such restrictions. The broadest gaps in understanding the potential of
scientific diplomacy lay in the third category, namely the use of science as a channel of international
diplomacy, either as a way of helping to forge consensus on contentious issues, or as a catalyst for peace
in situations of conflict. On the first of these, some pointed to recent climate change negotiations, and in
particular the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as a good example, of the way that
the scientific community can provide a strong rationale for joint international action. But others referred to
the failure of the Copenhagen climate summit last December to come up with a meaningful agreement on
action as a demonstration of the limitations of this way of thinking. It was argued that this failure had been
partly due to a misplaced belief that scientific consensus would be sufficient to generate a commitment to
collective action, without taking into account the political impact that scientific ideas would have. Another
example that received considerable attention was the current construction of a synchrotron facility
SESAMEin Jordan, a project that is already is bringing together researchers in a range of scientific
disciplines from various countries in the Middle East (including Israel, Egypt and Palestine, as well as both
Greece and Turkey). The promoters of SESAME hope that as with the building of CERN 60 years ago, and
its operation as a research centre involving, for example, physicists from both Russia and the United States
SESAME will become a symbol of what regional collaboration can achieve. In that sense, it would become
what one participant described as a beacon of hope for the region. But others cautioned that, however
successful SESAME may turn out to be in purely scientific terms, its potential impact on the Middle East
peace process should not be exaggerated. Political conflicts have deep roots that cannot easily be papered
over, however open-minded scientists may be to professional colleagues coming from other political
purely national ones. With all the caution that even this formulation still requires.
Climate change entails not only socio-economic but also military challenges
to the Arctic region, thus might lead towards the remilitarization of the
region. The increasing competition for trade routes, maritime zones and
natural resources has already led and continues to lead to a military build-up
of particular coastal states and intensification of NATO military activities in
the region. In contrast with the Cold war era, the current military efforts aim at
protection of economic interests of the Arctic states and assertion of their
national sovereignty over the maritime zones and trade routes rather than global
confrontation between two superpowers or military blocs. To give some examples of military buildups in
the region, for instance, Canada plans to create a 5000-strong ranger unit in its North. The U.S. and
Canada are modernizing the NORAD system. Besides, the U.S. is strengthening its Alaska Command and
even plans to deploy an ABM system in the Arctic region (either land-based in Northern Norway and/or seabased if ice retreating to continue). Norway is engaged in a quite impressive program to modernize its
coastal guard (including five new frigates acquisition). Russia has resumed it strategic aviation flights over
the Northern Atlantic, develops its Northern Fleet (including its nuclear component) and plans to create
special Arctic troops to control its Arctic Ocean coastline. Moreover, according to the so-called Stoltenberg
Report of 2009, the five Nordic nations (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) decided to create
joint military units as well as air monitoring system and SAR infrastructures which are specially designed
for the Arctic. They also plan to create a space group of three satellites to enhance the above structures
capabilities in communications and navigation. These developments affect the international security
regime in the region in a very negative way. Many experts believe that a special arms control regime for
that resolves the dispute through the UNCLOS process if it remains unable to participate within its
framework. However, were the United States to ratify UNCLOS, such an approach may prove effective.
Within this option, an Arctic treaty could indicate that UNCLOS is to govern the States sovereignty claims
while other provisions of the treaty could address the concerns unique to the Arctic not covered by
UNCLOS. States, such as Russia, who have already begun working under the laws of UNCLOS, would likely
favor this approach, as they will be able to continue in the UNCLOS process of submitting claims to the
CLCS. By establishing UNCLOS as the governing law, the Arctic States will be bound by the
determinations made by the CLCS, and left without alternatives under, for example, customary law.
same territory, as will inevitably occur, it is unclear how the Commission will proceed.165 Claims made by
one State are subject to counter-claims by other States, and while the CLCSs recommendations are
binding, the body has no power to enforce them.166
Case Turns
Note If you dont want to run the Russia SOI DA, the
link/internal link cards can independently serve as case
turns to the 1AC
Artic exploration causes ocean acidification, destroys
indigenous communities food source and no more
McDonalds filet-o-fish
Leonard 13( George Leonard, director of strategic initiatives at Ocean
Sonservancy. Ocean Acidification: A Pain in the Arctic, online:
http://blog.oceanconservancy.org/2013/05/17/ocean-acidification-a-pain-inthe-arctic/)
Even though oil companies have greatly improved practices in the Arctic,
three decades of drilling along Alaska's North Slope have produced a
steady accumulation of harmful environmental and social effects
that will probably grow as exploration expands, a panel of experts has
concluded. Some of the problems could last for centuries, the experts said in
a report yesterday, both because environmental damage does not heal
easily in the area's harsh climate and because it is uneconomical to
remove structures or restore damaged areas once drilling is over.
The report, produced by the National Research Council, was immediately
hailed by opponents of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which
lies east of established oil fields and is the only part of America's only stretch
of Arctic coastline that for now is off limits to drilling. Advocates of drilling
called it biased. Administration officials said improved techniques
would lessen the environmental impact of future drilling. The council,
the research arm of the National Academies, an independent advisory body
on science, produced the report at the request of Republican lawmakers
supporting oil drilling in the Arctic refuge. (The report can be found on the
Web at nas.edu.) No matter where you live, if you go outside and start
walking north, at some point youll reach the Arctic Ocean. A vast expanse
at the northern reaches of the planet, the Arctic Ocean supports a
dizzying array of ocean wildldife, including the charismatic and
much threatened polar bear. Most readers of The Blog Aquatic know that
summer sea ice has been rapidly melting, caused by human-induced
climate change from our ever rising global carbon emissions. Indeed,
the concentration of carbon dioxide in the global atmosphere just
broke a new record high. But more poorly understood is that carbon
dioxide is beginning to undermine the Arctic ocean itself through a
process called ocean acidification. No less than 10 key scientific findings
can be found in a just-released assessment of ocean acidification undertaken
by an international group of independent scientists. Their assessment will be
presented to the Arctic Council Ministers in Kiruna, Sweden this week. Called
the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), the scientists
spent the last three years detailing the effects of ocean acidification on
the Arctic, and exploring the consequences for the four million
people living there. The assessment concludes that the Arctic is
Filet-o-Fish sandwiches
and California rolls prosper, ocean acidification also is a
its interests, but Washington needs simultaneously to find a grand strategy that
reduces fears of U.S. preponderant power, thereby reducing incentives to engage
in counterhegemonic balancing directed at the United States. A good starting
point is the war on terrorism itself.
[World Policy Journal, Rethinking American grand strategy: Hegemony or balance of power in the twentycentury? vol. 15 iss. 2, Summer, proquest]Indochina and Bosnia demonstrate
how the strategy of preponderance expands America 's frontiers of
insecurity. The posited connection between security and economic interdependence requires the
United States to impose order on, and control over, the international system. To do
so, it must continually enlarge the geographic scope of its strategic
responsibilities to maintain the security of its already established
interests. As the political scientist Robert H. Johnson observes, this process becomes self-sustain- ing
because each time the United States pushes its security interests
outward, threats to the new security frontier will be apprehended :
"Uncertainty leads to self-extension, which leads in turn to new uncertainty
and further self-extension." 16 Core and periphery are interdependent strategically;
however, while the core remains constant, the turbulent frontier in the
periphery is constantly expanding. One does not overstate in arguing that this
first
expansion is potentially limitless. Former na- tional security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski recently has
suggested, for example, that NATO expansion is just the first step toward creating an American-dominated
"Trans Eurasian Security System" {TESS}, that ulti- mately will embrace Russia, China, Japan, India, and
other countries-- a security struc- ture "that would span the entire {Eurasian} continent." 17 There is a
suggestive parallel between late Victorian Britain and the United States today. The late- nineteenth-cenury
British statesman Lord Rosebery, clearly recognized that economic interdependence could lead to strategic
overextension: Our commerce is so universal and so penetrating that scarcely any
question can arise in any part of the world without involving British interests . This
consideration, instead of widening, rather circumscribes the field of our actions. For did
we not strictly limit the principle of intervention we should always be
simultaneously engaged in some forty wars. 18 Of course, it is an exaggeration to sug-gest
that the strategy of preponderance will involve the United States in 40 wars simultaneously. It is not,
however, an exag- geration to note that the need to defend America 's perceived interest
Russia SOI DA
1NC
US is lagging heavily behind in the Arctic race
AP 14 (Associated Press. "U.S. Lags behind Arctic Nations in Race to Stake Claims to Untapped
Resources." PBS. PBS, 1 Jan. 2014. Web. 23 July 2014. <http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/us-lagsbehind-arctic-nations-in-race-to-stake-claims-to-untapped-resources/>. Fred).
home to 13 percent of the worlds undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its untapped natural gas. There are
emerging fisheries and hidden minerals. Cruise liners filled with tourists are sailing the Arctics frigid
waters in increasing numbers. Cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route, one of two shortcuts across the
top of the Earth in summer, is on the rise. The U.S., which takes over the two-year rotating chairmanship of
the eight-nation Arctic Council in 2015, has not ignored the Arctic,
nations, we are behind behind in our thinking, behind in our vision, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, RAlaska, said. We lack basic infrastructure, basic funding commitments to be
prepared for the level of activity expected in the Arctic. At a meeting before
Thanksgiving with Secretary of State John Kerry, Murkowski suggested he name a U.S. ambassador or
envoy to the Arctic someone who could coordinate work on the Arctic being done by more than 20
federal agencies and take the lead on increasing U.S. activities in the region. Murkowski is trying to get
Americans to stop thinking that the Arctic is just Alaskas problem. People in Iowa and New Hampshire
need to view the U.S. as an Arctic nation. Otherwise when you talk about funding, youre never going to
get there, Murkowski said. She added that even non-Arctic nations are deeply engaged: India and China
are investing in icebreakers. The U.S. has three aging icebreakers. The melting Arctic also is creating a
new front of U.S. security concerns. Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said expanding
Russias military presence in the Arctic was a top priority for his nations armed forces. Russia this year
began rehabilitating a Soviet-era base at the New Siberian Islands and has pledged to restore a number of
Arctic military air bases that fell into neglect after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin said he
doesnt envision a conflict between Russia and the United States, both of which have called for keeping the
Arctic a peaceful zone. But he added, Experts know quite well that it takes U.S. missiles 15 to 16 minutes
to reach Moscow from the Barents Sea, which is a part of the Arctic Ocean near Russias shore. While the
threat of militarization remains, the battle right now is on the economic level as countries vie for oil, gas
and other minerals, including rare earth metals used to make high-tech products like cellphones. There
also are disputes bubbling up with environmental groups that oppose energy exploration in the region;
Russia arrested 30 crew members of a Greenpeace ship in September after a protest in the Arctic. China
signed a free trade agreement with tiny Iceland this year, a signal that the Asian powerhouse is keenly
interested in the Arctics resources. And Russia is hoping that the Northern Sea Route, where traffic jumped
to 71 vessels this year from four in 2010, someday could be a transpolar route that could rival the Suez
Canal. In the U.S., the Obama administration is consulting with governmental, business, industry and
environmental officials, as well as the state of Alaska, to develop a plan to implement the U.S. strategy for
the Arctic that President Barack Obama unveiled seven months ago. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel
rolled out the Pentagons Arctic blueprint last month, joining the Coast Guard and other government
agencies that have outlined their plans for the region. There are no cost or budget estimates yet, but the
Navy is laying out what the U.S. needs to increase communications, harden ships and negotiate
international agreements so nations will be able to track traffic in the Arctic and conduct search and rescue
operations. Critics,
ship. With few assets, the U.S. might be forced to borrow from the private sector. When Shell drilled two
summers ago in the Chukchi Sea and the Beaufort Sea, they had 33 vessels and the Coast Guard had one
The flag planting by a Russian submarine in August 2007 underneath the Arctic seabed
symbolized Russias intentions to use Arctic exploration as a means of
securing its desired imperial status pursuing a zero-sum game. The Kremlin
plans to establish a new international order in which it becomes a regional
hegemon. It is my opinion that Russia intends to end its role as an isolated
entity in international affairs, becoming closely integrated with the global economy and
dictating policy. Russian officials view the Arctic as securing its energy security
ambitions for the next century. Dwindling Russian gas and energy reserves, in
the underdeveloped Siberian fields, and over-reliance on European imports of
its natural gas has led to a push towards the Arctic. Russias jurisdictional
claim over the Arctic seabed will challenge the existing international law
criteria, the UNCLOS, which specifies jurisdictional authority over international waters. Arctic
stakeholders must be wary of Russian intentions over Arctic development,
considering the nationalistic rhetoric of the current government in power. Russias nationalized energy
companies maintain an influence in formulating Arctic Policy and influencing the Russian government to
their advantage. Russia will also use its energy security policy in the Arctic to become a naval superpower
as new shipping lanes for trade and energy production will run along its extensive northern coastline.
deepening; they
both must find a way to cope with the growing instability in the
Middle East.
the challenge to energy security that implies, and, at least for Russia, the threat that that
instability will infect Russias southern reaches: and they both must manage relations with a rising China.
In addition, both countries must deal with the dark side of globalization, and both have a
keen interest in the role and effectiveness of the institutions of global
governance, such as the United Nations and the G-8, the World Bank and the International Monetary
Fund. Common challenges, however, are not the same as common interests. And there are deep
differences in the way the United States and Russia think of global order (consider, for example. the role
of democracy or the United Nations). But the question each country needs to ask is how important the
China, India, and others, into a more central role in managing the global economy, a service long
performed by Europe and the United States. . In East Asia. to create a favorable new equilibrium, Russia
has an interest in a strong powerthat is, the United Statesacting as a moderating influence on China,
and the United States has no interest in a weakening Russian presence in Siberia and the Russian Far
2NC Extensions
Uniqueness
UQ: Russia has significant interest in the Arctic right now
Padrtova 7/20 (Padrtova, Barbora. "Russian Approach Towards the Arctic Region." Centre for
European and North Atlantic Affairs Analysis RSS. N.p., 20 July 2014. Web. 23 July 2014.
<http://cenaa.org/analysis/russian-approach-towards-the-arctic-region/>. Mgr. Barbora Padrtov holds a
Master degree in Security and Strategic Studies from the Faculty of Social Studies of the Masaryk
University in Brno. In 2009 she graduated in International Relations and European Studies from the
Metropolitan University in Prague. She also studied International Relations and Political Science at the
Universiteit Twente in Netherlands. In 2011 she worked at the Political Section of the Embassy of the
Republic of Iraq in Washington, D.C. Currently she is a project manager in CENAA. In her research she
focuses on Russian security and foreign policy, US-Russia relations, NATO-Russia relations, post-Soviet
region, and the Arctic region. Fred).
Russian national interests will be challenged by other Arctic states all NATO members who can
theoretically speak with one voice against Russia. Thus the Arctic region is likely to become a region of
geo-political competition.
Link/Internal Link
Russia holds significant interests in the Arctic and is wary
of other foreigners
Mikkola & Kapyla 13 (Mikkola, Juha Kpyl & Harri. The Global Arctic:
The Growing Arctic Interests of Russia, China, the United States and the
European Union(n.d.): n. pag. Aug. 2013. Web. 22 July 2014.
<www.fiia.fi/assets/publications/bp133.pdf>. Juha Kpyl is researcher the
Finnish institute of international affairs. Harri Mikkola is a researcher the
Finnish institute of international affairs. Fred).
Russia is the most important player in the Arctic, with significant economic,
security and governance interests in the region. This is primarily because of natural
resources. Over 20% of undiscovered global hydrocarbon reserves are located in the Arctic area and most
of them in the Russian Arctic.4
oil and gas alone account for roughly 20-25% of Russian GDP.5 Russias
domestic social programmes, infrastructure investments, and mili- tary modernization are all critically
dependent on revenues from natural resource export. Similarly,
hydrocarbons provide
This is especially the case with energy-
The Arctic
plays an increasing role in this equa- tion as a strategically vital resource
base for Russia. So far, the Russian Arctic has been responsible for about 1015% of Russian GDP and 25% of its foreign exports and there are systematic
efforts to increase these figures. Russias increasing northward focus is also
due to the fact that Russias mature hydrocarbon sources in Western Siberia
are slowly drying up. Recent hydrocarbon activities in the Russian Arctic have taken place primarily
dependent Europe, where a third of the natural gas consumed is imported from Rus- sia.
through onshore projects in key locations such as the Yamal Peninsula and in nascent offshore projects on
the Arctic sea bed in the Barents, Pechora and Kara Seas. These offshore projects have often taken the
form of joint ventures between Russian and international energy corpora- tions. This signals Russias need
to seek investments and technological know-how through international cooperation. However, key
offshore projects such as the Shtokhman gas field and Prirazlomnoye oil field have turned out to be
extremely challenging and have been suffering from continuous delays and shuffling of foreign partners up
until today. Russia has also set its sights on resource bases outside its territorial borders and submitted a
claim for the extension of its continental shelf to the UN Com- mission on the Limits of the Continental
Shelf (CLCS) process as early as 2001. In order to access, exploit and deliver Arctic natu- ral resources to
global markets, Russia also aims to develop critical infrastructure in the Northern Sea Route (NSR),
including ports, search-and-rescue (SAR) centres, route administration, ice-breaking capability, and oil spill
response capabilities. In addition, non-maritime parts of the Arctic trans- port system pipelines, aviation
routes, railways, and roads and the overall socio-economic con- ditions of the region require development
three geostrategic
imperatives: that Russia must remain a nuclear superpower, a great power in
all facets of international activity, and the hegemon -- the political, military, and
economic leader -- of its region. This consensus marks a line in the sand, beyond
which Russia cannot retreat without losing its sense of pride or even national
identity. It has proven remarkably resilient, surviving post-revolutionary turbulence and the
spectrum -- from pro-Western liberals to leftists and nationalists. It rests on
change of political regimes from Boris Yeltsin to Vladimir Putin. After his election as president in 2000,
Domestically, the doctrine has guided the regime to reclaim the commanding heights of the economy (first
and foremost, the oil and natural gas industries) and reassert its control over national politics, the judicial
system, and the national television networks, from which an overwhelming majority of Russians get their
news. In foreign and security policy, the doctrine has amounted to a reinterpretation of Russia's
geostrategic triad, making its implementation and maintenance considerably more assertive than
originally intended. Although U.S. President Barack Obama has signaled lately that he will attempt to
revive the "reset" with Russia, Washington's best option may well be a strategic pause: a much-scaleddown mode of interaction that reflects the growing disparity in values and objectives between the two
countries yet preserves frank dialogue and even cooperation in a few select areas. THE PUTIN DOCTRINE
IN PRACTICE
Russian Chief of Staff Lurii Baluevskii has been more direct; stating
that US commitment to its hegemony "expanding its economic, political, and
military presence in Russia's traditional zones of influence" is the country's
top national security threat.236 As a consequence, it is difficult to isolate the regional security
corner.'235
dilemma and polarity trends in the Arctic from the larger international environment. For example, Hubert et
al. note that events such as the Russian Georgian war could easily have led to 'chilled' relations among
Arctic Council states as a result of many of these states also being members of NATO.237 Secondly,
Huebert argues that because both the US and Russia are Arctic Great Powers,
any drive to increase power capabilities is likely to have an effect on the
Arctic balance, and hence, is an Arctic security issue. 238 Thus, the Arctic security
dilemma is in many ways inexorably linked to outcomes within the international structure. From this
vantage, the ability of Russia, or any comparable Great Power, to conduct itself in the Arctic isolated from
It is of course true that many Arctic states are concerned with their economic
and security interests in the region and the danger of a regional conflict . This is
in part reflected in practically all Arctic states increased military presence in the area. At times we see
and the melting of the Arctic ice cap are likely to substantially increase commercial activity in the region.
This may lead to conflicts that are not yet apparent. Speaking
Arctic Council CP
1NC
Note: One probably notes that its the counterplan links to the DA
since US will participate in these arctic meetings. You need to make
the distinction that the arctic council will pacify Russia and allow for
cooperation between the arctic nations and the US. That way the
disadvantage is a net benefit to the counterplan.
Ratification of the U.N. Law of the Sea Treaty, a perennial topic in American foreign policy, would also
increase U.S. influence in the Arctic. For the United States, working closely with Canada in particular and
our NATO partners in the Arctic generally makes good sense and would reduce costs to individual nations.
We should use the Arctic Council to ensure that each nation's military
movements, intentions, and patterns of operation are fully understood -- thus
reducing the prospect of inadvertent tension. There are also important socalled "Track II" projects, like the rapidly growing annual conference
sponsored by ArcticCircle.org, a loose confederation of experts in the region who met in Iceland
last week. Third, we need to work as closely as we can with Russia in the Arctic. Although we will
2NC Extensions
Solvency
The Arctic Council can do mapping
CAFF 14 (CAFF. "Arctic Council to Produce Harmonized Map Covering Region Read More:
Http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/arctic-council-to-produce-harmonized-map-covering-region/."
Climate.issd.org. N.p., 18 July 2014. Web. 24 July 2014. <http%3A%2F%2Fclimate-l.iisd.org%2Fnews
%2Farctic-council-to-produce-harmonized-map-covering-region%2F>. Fred).
The Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), the Arctic Council's
biodiversity working group, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)
to guide national mapping organizations in the Arctic in producing a harmonized map
18 June:
covering the entire Arctic region, with data on, inter alia, climate and biodiversity. The aim of the Arctic
Spatial Data Infrastructure (Arctic SDI) is to help harmonize, combine and integrate diverse data sets.A
wide range of data with a spatial component has been generated in the
Arctic. However, the management of such data has mainly been national or
issue-specific and, thus, many of the existing datasets are distributed among
many organizations. Thus, the Arctic SDI will also contribute to improved
sharing and analysis across the Arctic , and will be critical in helping to
understand the impacts of climate change on nature, biodiversity
management, and the adaptability and sustainable use of all living resources
in the Arctic. Spatial data can be used in the Arctic as a tool for integrated
planning. Arctic SDI users include: the Arctic Council Working Groups;
scientific groups engaged in Arctic research; governmental authorities
involved in decision regarding the Arctic; and the broader public, including the
private sector, NGOs and media. The national mapping organizations participating in the project are from
the US, Canada, the Russian Federation, Denmark and the Faroe Islands, Greenland, Finland, Iceland,
Norway and Sweden. CCAF consists of national representatives assigned by each of the eight Arctic
Council Member States, representatives of Indigenous Peoples' organizations that are Permanent
Participants to the Council, and Arctic Council observer countries and organizations.
Guidelines, they are intended to encourage the highest standards currently available. They are not
intended to prevent States from setting equivalent or stricter standards, where appropriate. Policy
development should take into account the domestic situation with respect to political, economic, legal, and
administrative conditions. Consideration should be given to macro- economic effects, regional effects, and
potential environmental impacts. Such consideration should result in a staged opening plan, and ensure
protection of areas of special environmental concern. While these guidelines do not address socioeconomic aspects in any detail, nor do they set standards for assessment of potential socio-economic
Arctic (see Figure 1 and Annex A). It is hoped that regulators will identify the key aspects related to
protection of human health and safety and protection of the environment for the management of offshore
activities, while at the same time remaining sufficiently flexible in the application of these management
regimes to permit alternative regulatory approaches. It should be recognized that the eight Arctic nations
have different systems with different emphases on the division of responsibility between the operator and
the regulator. The goal is to assist regulators in developing standards, which are applied and enforced
consistently for all offshore Arctic oil and gas operators. Sensible regulation will vary to some degree based
peace and security issues were left out of its mandate at American insistence. But 2011 is not 1996 and,
as world interest on the Arctic swells, peace and security need to be on the
agenda to ensure the Arctic Council remains relevant . The survey clearly
demonstrates interest in peace and security in the Arctic. On the issue of an Arctic nuclear-weapons free
zone (such as Antarctica), six of the nine constituencies surveyed were very supportive of this idea (82 per
cent in Norway, 78 per cent of Southern Canada, 77 per cent of Finland, 76 per cent of Northern Canada,
75 per cent of Iceland, and 74 per cent of Denmark). Not surprisingly, American and Russian respondents
were the least enthusiastic, with 56 per cent and 47 per cent supporting a nuclear-free Arctic,
respectively. The
Environmental Justice K
Note, you have to either insert the exploration or development link
dont read just Bryant and Rodriguez alone
widespread destruction from pollutants that know no geopolitical boundaries. We need to do this because pollutants are
not respectful of international boundaries; it does little good if one country practices sound environmental protection
relations forged after World War II are now obsolete. New cooperative relations need to be agreed upon cooperative
inseparably
development is linked to pollution prevention even though the market fails to include the true cost of pollution in its
pricing of products and services; it fails to place a value on the destruction of plant and animal species. To date, most
industrialized nations, the high polluters, have had an incentive to pollute because they did not incur the cost of
producing goods and services in a nonpolluting manner. The world will have to pay for the true cost of production and
to practice prudent stewardship of our natural resources if we are to sustain ourselves on this planet. We cannot
expect Third World countries to participate in debt-for-nature swaps as a means for saving the rainforest
or as a means for the reduction of greenhouse gases, while a considerable amount of such gases come
from industrial nations and from fossil fuel consumption . Like disease, population growth is politically, economically, and
structurally determined. Due to inadequate income maintenance programs and social security, families in developing countries are more
apt to have large families not only to ensure the survival of children within the first five years, but to work the fields and care for the elderly.
As development increases, so do education, health, and birth control. In his chapter, Buttel states that ecological development and
substantial debt forgiveness would be more significant in alleviating Third World environmental degradation (or population problems) than
ratification of any UNCED biodiversity or forest conventions. Because population control programs fail to address the structural
characteristics of poverty, such programs for developing countries have been for the most part dismal failures. Growth and development
along ecological lines have a better chance of controlling population growth in developing countries than the best population control
programs to date. Although population control is important, we often focus a considerable amount of our attention on population problems
of developing countries. Yet there are more people per square mile in Western Europe than in most developing countries. During his/her
lifetime an American child causes 35 times the environmental damage of an Indian child and 280 times that of a Haitian child (Boggs, 1993:
1). The addiction to consumerism of highly industrialized countries has to be seen as a major culprit, and thus must be balanced against
it has not been easy, individual countries of the former Soviet Union have the potential of reemerging looking very
different and stronger. Or they could emerge looking very different and weaker. They could become societies that are
both socially and environmentally destructive or they can become societies where people have decent jobs, places to
live, educational opportunities for all citizens, and sustainable social structures that are safe and nurturing. Although
North Americans are experiencing economic and social discomforts, we too will have to change, or we may find
ourselves engulfed by political and economic forces beyond our control. In 1994, the out-sweeping of Democrats from
national offices may be symptomatic of deeper and more fundamental problems. If the mean-spirited behavior that
characterized the 1994 election is carried over into the governance of the country, this may only fan the
flames of discontent. We may be embarking upon a long struggle over ideology, culture, and the very
heart and soul of the country. But despite all the political turmoil, we must take risks and try out new
ideas ideas never dreamed of before and ideas we thought were impossible to implement. To
implement these ideas we must overcome institutional inertia in order to enhance intentional change.
We need to give up
tradition and
The question is not growth, but what kind of growth, and where it will take place.
For example, we can maintain current levels of productivity or become even more productive if we farm organically.
Because of ideological conflicts, it is hard for us to view the Cuban experience with an unjaundiced eye; but we ask you
to place political differences aside and pay attention to the lyrics of organic farming and not to the music of
Communism. In other words, we must get beyond political differences and ideological conflicts; we must find success
stories of healing the planet no matter where they exist be they in Communist or non-Communist countries,
developed or underdeveloped countries. We must ascertain what lessons can be learned from them, and examine how
Continued
use of certain technologies and chemicals that are incompatible with the
ecosystem will take us down the road of no return. We are already
witnessing the catastrophic destruction of our environment and
disproportionate impacts of environmental insults on communities of color and
low-income groups. If such destruction continues, it will undoubtedly deal harmful blows to our social,
economic, and political institutions. As a nation, we find ourselves in a house
divided, where the cleavages between the races are in fact getting
worse. We find ourselves in a house divided where the gap between the rich and the poor has increased. We find
they would benefit the world community. In most instances, we will have to chart a new course.
ourselves in a house divided where the gap between the young and the old has widened. During the 1980s, there were
few visions of healing the country. In the 1990s, despite the catastrophic economic and environmental results of the
1980s, and despite the conservative takeover of both houses of Congress, we must look for glimmers of hope. We must
stand by what we think is right and defend our position with passion. And at times we need to slow down and reflect
and do a lot of soul searching in order to redirect ourselves, if need be. We must chart out a new course of defining who
we are as a people, by redefining our relationship with government, with nature, with one another, and where we want
we
are a nation of different ethnic groups and races, and of multiple
interest groups, and if we cannot live in peace and in harmony with
ourselves and with nature it bodes ominously for future world
relations. Because economic institutions are based upon the
growth paradigm of extracting and processing natural resources,
we will surely perish if we use them to foul the global nest. But it
to be as a nation. We need to find a way of expressing this definition of ourselves to one another. Undeniably
see the long-term effects of our actions. The ideas and policies discussed in this book are ways of getting ourselves
back on track. The ideas presented here will hopefully provide substantive material for discourse. These policies are not
carved in stone, nor are they meant to be for every city, suburb, or rural area. Municipalities or rural areas should have
dumping in Third World countries or in the atmosphere today will surely haunt the world tomorrow. Ideas presented
of oppressed people brings forth a new consciousness a new consciousness shaped by immediate demands for
certainty and solution. It is a struggle to make a true connection between humanity and nature .
This
struggle to resolve environmental problems may force the nation to alter its
priorities; it may force the nation to address issues of
environmental justice and, by doing so, it may ultimately result in a
cleaner and healthier environment for all of us. Although we may never eliminate all
toxic materials from the production cycle, we should at least have that as a goal.
adeeper awareness and understanding of the actuality of environmental inequalities and of their ability
to defeat these inequalitiesalso inspires Steve Chase's "constructivist pedagogy" (355-357).Two books.
The Human Rights Education Handbook edited by NancyFlowers and Jacqueline G. Brooks and Martin G.
Brooks' In Searchof Understanding inspire Chase's teaching. Based on the former.Chase's teaching
stresses the concrete experience of his students,active learning activities, student participation,
horizontal communication, critical thinking, the expression of feelings, cooperationamong students, and
environmental
justice education is not just about liberatory knowledge but also
about liberatory practicesthus, training students as activists.
the integration of knowledge, action and feelings (356). Furthermore, Chase's
Justice in an Advanced Gender Studies Course," Jia-Yi Cheng Levine refers to a particular course
aboutwomen and the environment in which she introduced the !literature ofthe environmental justice
movement to her students, exposing themto various political, social and ecological issues. As she
explains:"By introducing literature of environmental justice to our students, we
help form
political subjects who would seek to dismantle racism,sexism,
classism, and unbridled capitalism, which wreak havoc on our
planet and our people" (378). Her teaching is certainly aimed atconscientization, as she
makes dear:Teaching is more than transmitting knowledge or modes of
thinking; it helps form political subjects who will determine the
future of this planetwe call home. My goal for teaching literature of environmental
justicewas to foster a literacy of the environment in my students' everydaylives, to call their
attention lo the power structures of society and the political
struggles of the impoverished, as well as to encourage them to
examine configurations of knowledge and the dispensation of
power. By addressing the interrelated issues of race, gender, class,and the environment, I wanted
to bring environmental and socialjustice education into the class. (368)Jia-Yi Cheng Levine's
achieve a
2NC Extensions
Links
Northern Polar expeditions reinforce colonialism and
masculine ideologies while manipulating natives to follow
orders through coercion
Bloom 93, Lisa. Gender on Ice: American Ideologies of Polar Expeditions
pg. 3 Accessed 7-16-14.
Expeditions to the North Pole, far from being innocent of the tensions of
the empire, represented a peculiar stage of colonialism specific to polar
discourses that integrated the desire for empire with a presumably
disinterested moral and scientific imagination. Dependent upon foot
travel and hard work of Eskimos, as the Inuit people were called, North
Polar expeditions were icons of the whole enterprise of colonialism. The
complexity of the relation between master and servant in the pursuit of
science, however, was consistently written out of the script. Polar explorers
with their established network of publications and clubs identified polar
exploration as an intrinsically pure field of knowledge, effecting the
political dealings with entire Eskimo villages, and the gender and
race relations that informed the writing of their texts. () Ideologies of
gender were central to polar discovery and exploration narratives are a rich
source for the analysis of stereotypes of white masculinity during this era. In
the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, polar exploration
narratives played a prominent part in defining the social construction
of masculinity and legitimized the exclision of women from many public
domains of discourse. As all-male activities, the explorations
symbolically enacted the mens own battle to become men. The
difficulty of life in desolate and freezing regions provided the ideal mythic site
where men could show themselves as heroes capable of superhuman feats.
The vastness, coldness, and low biological productivity of the north have given rise to
a very remarkable paradox. On the one hand, human population has always been
small and widely scattered. The largest single aboriginal Arctic community
was probably no more than 2 000 strong, and entire culture areas in
the Canadian north comprised population clusters of between 10 and
50 persons. The qualities of the north have meant that for a long time it has been
beyond the reach of agricultural interest or industrial possibility. On the other hand,
these same fundamental qualities mean that once the industrial potential of
far as native peoples are concerned, it involves the view that it will
provide things that native societies badly needmore money,
opportunities for participation in the mainstream of Canadian life ,
and what is broadly thought of as 'progress'. Thus industry is often seen,
and indeed is often justified, as a solution to the problems of small
native communities. In this discussion, then, I shall look at some of the relations
between these characteristics of northern industrial advance and the characteristics
of small northern communities already discussed. I shall cover three broad areas of
inquirythe economic, the social, and the politicalwith specific emphasis on the
questions of money and sharing, as well as on problems of individualism, identity and
mobility, and the way in which industrial development tends to be totally
intrusive. Throughout I shall be supposing a simple model of industrial
development in which a large, elaborate and costly programme for a mine or an oiland-gas site is either geographically or economically close to a small native
community.
They do, however, raise some interesting questions about the impact
of industrial development. Remembering that industry is capable of
offering jobs at high wages and remembering, also, that members of
the affected community are short of the money they need to buy
goods and services that they have come to regard as essential, one
consequence of industrial development is likely to be a reduction of
earnings or earning-equivalents from land-based and traditional
activities. The amount involved could be as much as $5 000 per family per annum.
Of course, industrial employment does not wipe out, at a stroke, all production of
country foods; it does not even put an end to trapping and earnings from sales of
furs. Indeed, because wage earners can afford to improve the technology they apply
to the harvesting of renewable resources, high wages can actually be beneficial to
traditional economic activity. But in the longer run, all the evidence
Arctic Alternative
The only way to make the natives feel safe in their home
from us is too consult them first.
Hugh Brody (1977). Industrial impact in the Canadian north. Polar Record, 18, pp 333-339.
doi:10.1017/S0032247400000589. http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FPOL
%2FPOL18_115%2FS0032247400000589a.pdf&code=154bc58c7983f554b38b329bcd41b762
used the word kappia, which means fear of danger. 18 talked of southerners
as angajuqaat, bosses, and themselves as just not being able to do other
than what they were told. Each person's description of the beginnings of the
education programme involved some more or less explicit reference to their
subordination to and dependence upon southerners. When Inuit talk about
subsequent events, they indicate that these attitudes and their corresponding
retreatism have tended to persist, or, in some cases even to be reinforced.
Inuit have rarely felt able to oppose southerners' wishes. Since
southerners represent their innovations as their wish, they thereby
minimize the possibility of the kind of dialogue that genuine
consultation must entail. What is more, the discussions that do take
place are often bedevilled by misunderstandings : there are serious
language problems, not to mention the vastly different traditions of
dialogue and social exchange that govern the representatives of
industry and the representatives of Inuit or Dene communities. Inuit
are slow to decide, and prefer to wait for the gradual emergence of
community opinion before expressing a definite point of view. They are also
suspicious of mere opinion, and regard an error of judgement as a lie. But
decisions about industry can rarely wait longthe harsh economic realities
are always said to be pounding on the door. From the native point of view,
their representatives seem to be stormed into making decisions, into
giving agreements, and into expressing their wishes and conditions
for the southerners' programmes.
Politics
1NC Links
Arctic drilling and mining is unpopular
sthagen 13 (sthagen, Andreas. "Arctic Oil and Gas: Hype or Reality?" Fletcher Forum of World
Affairs RSS. N.p., 9 Apr. 2013. Web. 25 July 2014.
<http://www.fletcherforum.org/2013/04/09/osthagen/>. Andreas sthagen works for the North Norway
European Office in Brussels while contributing to The Arctic Institute, a D.C. based think tank. He holds a
MSc in International Relations from London School of Economics and has previously worked on Arctic issues
at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) and the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies
in Oslo. Fred).
Internationally, Arctic resource exploration has attracted attention as a symbol of corporate greed and
discussions concerning Arctic oil and gas activities often seem to inspire conflict and public outcry, such
that the power of civic engagement, in terms of halting the processes, should not be underestimated . A
third hindrance comes from the friction caused when regional interests collide
with those of the Federal government. The people and local governments of Alaska, for
example, are increasingly interested in mineral and oil extraction to boost local employment levels and tax