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The prediction of load and energy level for future by a utility for a given region is called load forecasting.
to make advanced decision for profitable and judicious investment in power sector
to satisfy the future needs of power demand by estimating additional installed capacity.
To keep the reliability of the power system at desired level.
To provide basis for examining energy supply problem of a country in a broader perspective.
D. Global consideration: The energy requirement of the world for many years to come is predicted
mainly to evaluate the energy resources scenario and the environmental impacts associated with its
utilization. Institutions like World Bank, World Energy Commission etc. usually carry out this
forecasting.
input
output
Cause and effect relationship
So the first task while forecasting is to find the cause and effect relationship by observing the
output of the system and relating that to the corresponding inputs.
ii. Time series approach:
In this approach of forecasting, the system is treated as a black box and no attempt is made to
discover the factors affecting its behaviour. The reasons for treating the system as black box are:
a)
the system may not be understood and even if it is understood, it may be extremely difficult
to measure the relationship governing its behaviour.
b)
The main concern may be only to predict what will happen and not to
know why it happens.
Energonomics:
Energonomics ( energy +economics) is the science dealing with the energy in relation to the economy. It is
seen that the yearly consumption in a country depends on the economic factors in the country.
Energonomics is helpful to forecast the future electrical energy demand taking the countrys economy into
consideration.
the general geographical region and sub regions where power is to be sold
Topography and climate of the region and its effect on the load requirement.
Population distribution, past growth and estimated future growth.
Availability of labor, past distribution and estimated future available labor.
Natural resources of the region viz. agriculture, timber, minerals and raw materials for
manufacturing industries.
Income per person.
Main economic activities i.e. agriculture, textile etc.
The existing use and the existing rate of consumption of electrical energy.
Relative cost of electrical energy and the other forms of energy available in the region
5.