Professional Documents
Culture Documents
May 2014
Digital
disruption
in energy
Page 4:
Digital
disruption
in energy
Page 8:
Page 14:
Page 19:
3D printing in
upstream energy
an industrial
evolution
Regular features:
Page 23:
Page 30:
Page 35:
Page 39:
Page 42:
Page 46:
Digitals role in
plugging the
missing middle
in upstream
Opportunities for
advanced analytics
in shale gas
production
Book Review:
Untapped - The
Scramble For
Africas Oil
Energy results:
Q4 2013
fully turn data into oil, and Toby Lomax explores the potential for
advanced analytics in unconventional production more specifically.
Finally, Rich Kho, a Refined alumni and past Editor-in-Chief, proposes a new way forward for fuel retailers in the context of the digital revolution. As ever, this edition also includes the latest quarterly
results for you, as well as a book review by Michael Stratton as part
of our ongoing collaboration with the UKI Energy Book Club.
Congratulations to Michael Lamb who brings the iPad home this
quarter for his brilliant perspective on 3D printing as an industrial
evolution in the upstream supply chain. Rinat Matsukov and Shane
McIntyre come in as runners up. We will also reward all Refined
writers in this edition with a stamp in their Energy Passports, in recognition of their contributions to the global Energy Community of
Practice.
In the next edition, we will be exploring the new frontiers of energy. If you have an idea for an article related to this theme, or indeed
any topic, then please do get in touch with myself or another member of the Editorial Team (see more on our newly launched Refined
page on the Energy Source), or by posting your ideas on the Stream
(using the #Refined hashtag). Otherwise enjoy this issue!
Tessa Lennartz-Walker
Refined.Editor@accenture.com
Digital
disruption
in energy
The last decade of change and opportunity was driven by digital start-ups. The coming decade will see traditional companies become the next set of
digital giants Accenture Technology Vision 2014.
n 2005, text messages were sent peer-topeer and blogs were typically long essays.
Twitter, founded the next year, bucked traditional blogging and let users broadcast microblog posts (tweets) to the world. Today, after
less than ten years, only eight years after the
companys founding, Twitter has nearly 650
travel is managed, cabs are booked, friendships are established, and more. In short, they
no longer sit at the periphery of life but rather
are intrinsically related to its very core. This
Wearable computing
Wearable computing devices such as Google
Glass can allow workers in remote or distant
locations to receive over-the-shoulder coaching from workers across the world. By enabling
a remote worker to see what the on-site field
worker sees and hear what the field worker
hears, he or she can provide the on-site field
worker with assistance with maintenance, oneon-one training, as well as support during
safety issues. Its not just glasses either. The
consumerisation of smart watches, fitness devices, and other wearable technology will likely drive the cost down and capability up to a
point where energy companies can finally
achieve the vision of a fully networked and
smart worker. See The field worker of the future
article in this edition.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (drones)
Another example of this digital-physical blur
is made evident by unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs). UAVs have numerous industry-specific use cases, including pipeline surveys, flare
stack inspections, inspecting offshore platforms, ensuring wildlife safety, and monitoring flare emissions. Outfitted with a range of
video and sensor technology, these aerial robots will extend the reach of workers to locations that are either too remote or dangerous
for workers. BP for example plans to deploy
unmanned aerial vehicles to inspect pipelines
in remote areas of Alaska at a fraction of the
cost of a piloted helicopter within the next
three years.1 See the article on Here come the
drones in this edition.
3D printing
Like drones, the maturation of 3D printing
also suggests increasing relevance for the industry. 3D printers are moving down the cost
curve and increasingly able to develop more
complex products, making them a more competitive alternative to shipping and storing
assets. This new digital supply chain could
enable the manufacturing of parts that are no
longer in production, the development of
highly specialised tools, and the production
of parts where and when they are needed in
remote locations such as the Arctic or far offshore. This is likely to become a hotly contested area for Oil Field Services (OFS) companies
- GE is already planning to begin 3D printing
fuel nozzles for gas turbines later this year.2
The technologies
highlighted in this edition of
Refined just begin to
scratch the surface of the
possibilities that lie ahead
over the next decade.
Advanced analytics
Although the energy industry has had no
shortage of investment in data over the past
decade, this data continues to be of poor quality, and despite growing exponentially, it has
so far failed to deliver on promised benefits.
Many companies may be forgiven for thinking
that a significant return on their data is out of
reach. However, visionary leadership and determination certainly pay off. As an example, a
large oil and gas producer with annual revenues in excess of $5 billion used its data supply
chain to feed advanced analytical models that
optimise beam pumps and better understand
producer failures. Those two use cases alone
could be worth more than $100 million per year
in additional production and cost savings - and
that is only the beginning of opportunities that
lie ahead. See the articles on Turning data into
oil, Opportunities for advanced analytics in shale
gas production and Fuel retailing and the digital
consumer in this edition.
The technologies highlighted in this edition
of Refined just begin to scratch the surface of
the possibilities that lie ahead over the next
decade. When one thinks about other possibilities such as combining big data in combination
with machine learning or artificial intelligence,
or the rise of the industrial internet and machine-to-machine (M2M) technologies to drive
greater production, efficiency, and asset integrity, the possibilities of digital disruption appear to be endless. However, as this edition of
Refined shows, the real value and disruption
will require bringing digital capabilities such
as these together and integrating them directly
into individual business strategies.
Sources:
Brian Richards
Brian Richards is a Senior Manager and the
Innovation Lead for the NA Energy practice with
responsibility for bringing AccenturesEnergy
clients the latest technologyand innovation from
both inside and outside of Accenture and helping
them craft differentiating strategies. Prior to this
role, Brian was a Manager for the Accenture
Technology Labs in Chicago for six years.
Laser Sintering
Lenses
X-Y scanning mirror
Drive wheels
Laser
Laser Beam
Sintered part
Liquifiers
Extrusion nozzles
Leveling roller
Powder bed
Powder Feed
supply
Part
Foam base
Build platform
Item
Lenses
Extrusion head
% Annual Growth
Stereolithography
3D Printing Demand
North America
Western Europe
Asia/Pacific
Central & South America
Eastern Europe
Africa/Mideast
775
361
194
183
7
13
17
2012
2017
20072012
20122017
1950
900
495
445
25
35
50
5000
2285
1225
1170
75
103
142
20.3
20.0
20.6
19.4
29.0
21.9
24.1
20.7
20.5
19.9
21.3
24.6
24.1
23.2
Laser beam
Vat
Sweeper
Layered part
Support material
spool
Build platform
Powder feed piston
Build chamber
2007
Liquid
Photopolymer
Part supports
UK Tornado fighter jet has flown with 3D printed parts in three of its systems), and in the mining industry to build scale models of shafts and
prototype parts.8 This articles sets out to explore
the value of this new technology for oil and gas
companies, and how they can most effectively
reap the maximum benefit from it.
10
Demand
Storefront &
Customization
Retail storefront,
Distribution center,
On-site printer
Manufactured
Product
11
12
cases in which the myriad benefits this technology brings can be most effectively delivered.
The key will be to engineer a position from
which companies can smoothly transition to a
digitalised supply chain without compromising
or breaking the existing models. This will require clear strategic roadmaps and digitally-enabled operating models for supply chain management over the next five years.
Many experts are beginning to predict that,
given a long enough time-frame, standard
manufacturing will die.17 Whether they view
this prospect with excitement or dread, or likely
a volatile concoction of the two, energy companies must today begin to address the opportunities and associated challenges that 3D printing,
as a disruptive technology, brings. James Matthew Barrie, the Scottish author and dramatist,
said of the printing press that it was either the
greatest blessing or the greatest curse of modern
times, one sometimes forgets which;18 it falls
upon energy companies themselves to assert
what 3D printing will be to them.
Article submitted by Michael Lamb
Michael Lamb
Michael Lamb is a Resources ICP Consultant
based in London. He has advised Energy and
Utilities clients on organisational design, training,
and stakeholder engagement. Michaels industry
interests run across Resources, with a particular
focus on unconventionals and new energy.
Sources:
13
UAVs vary significantly, but they can be broadly categorised into three distinct groups: governmental, commercial air transport, and general aviation.3 It is the latter that is of most
interest to commercial businesses. While UAVs
are unlikely to become a part of our daily lives
in the immediate future, they will soon begin
taking on much larger roles for individual consumers and businesses - from changing the
way farmers manage their crops to revolution-
14
Here come the drones - can UAVs radically change how the energy industry operates?
continued
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Year
Speculative UCAV procurement not included
15
Here come the drones - can UAVs radically change how the energy industry operates?
continued
16
Here come the drones - can UAVs radically change how the energy industry operates?
continued
plemented by September 2015 that will guarantee safety protocol, as well as privacy.20 For
the latter, there are no easy answers. In the
US, federal lawmakers and civil liberty advocates are calling for greater oversight of data
collection by UAVs and this is likely to be
repeated across other geographies as UAV
technology is adopted internationally.
A second major challenge is regulation. In
the US, the only way an aerial drone or UAV
can be cleared for flight in US airspace is to
receive a special permit from the FAA. Since
2009, the FAA has issued 1,387 Certifications
of Authorisation (COAs) for limited UAV
flights, to research, educational, and govern-
17
Here come the drones - can UAVs radically change how the energy industry operates?
continued
Shane McIntyre
Shane is a Strategy Analyst based in London. He
has worked with a number of Energy and Utilities
clients, most recently within an IOCs Upstream
Finance organisation and as part of a smart meter
rollout project.
Shanes industry interests lie in upstream oil and
gas, unconventionals, mining and new energy.
Sources:
18
drive towards efficiency, companies are increasingly turning to new technology solutions for help. Traditionally, this has involved
implementing large Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions to optimise core business
19
20
21
Sources:
Rinat Maksutov
Rinat is a Consultant within Accenture Digital
based in Moscow, Russia. Rinat is part of the
mobility stream within Accenture Digital. His main
focus is on developing mobility strategies and
solutions for different clients across industries.
1. http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnnosta/2013/06/21/
google-glass-in-the-operating-room/
2. IT Key Metrics Data 2014: Key Industry Measures:
Energy Analysis: Multiyear
3. Accenture Technology Vision 2014
4. http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/02/14/first-video-ofgoogle-glass-application-for-oil-gas/
22
the answer to optimising value from production in increasingly difficult climates.1 The
Digital Oil Field is a suite of complementary
technologies that combine data and knowledge
management, using enhanced analytical tools,
to develop more efficient process and make
23
ExxonMobil
Chevron
Shell
BP
Total
ConocoPhillips
Eni
2009
2013
-12%
ing execution challenges and costs. In fact, reserves replacement cost is expected in 2014 to
have risen by almost 50% compared to 2011
levels and IOCs are struggling to maintain production volumes (see Figure 1). Furthermore,
CAPEX spending is increasing significantly.
Indeed CAPEX spending has risen by nearly
180% since 2000, whilst global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) increased by just
14%.6 This trend clearly indicates significant
diminishing returns.
The result has been declining return on average capital employed (ROACE) across the industry. Analysis shows that post-2010 ROACE
has fallen across IOCs from highs of 30% to
below 10% (see Figure 2). Furthermore, with
capital spending increasing as prices remain
stagnant, analysts are calling for capital constraint. Shell has been the latest example to
cave into pressure to rein-in spending following their recent profit warning and the news
that ROACE had more than halved to 9% last
year.7
Given this industry context, the growing response by IOCs has been a renewed focus on
value over volume, with increased active portfolio management, and a growing realisation
24
ROACE (%)
28
26
30,444
24
30,000
22
20
25,000
23,605
18
16
14
12
20,000
17,627
14,794
15,000
10
8
10,000
6
4
5,000
2
0
0
2009
2010
Industry leader ROACE
2011
2012
Median CAPEX
Median ROACE
delivery of value over volume. These capabilities help realise future potential value and
guide the proper strategic investment decisions
required to be successful in the long run, whilst
maintaining profitable operations today. However, current capabilities are inadequate. In
25
Focus
continued
Strategic
prioritisation
Digital integration
Strategic Planning
CAPEX
Activity Planning
Outcomes of
Field
Development
Plans
Activity
schedules and
Functional
Plans
Data supply
chain
aligned to the relevant business environment and the key drivers of business value,
nor do they have the built in agility based
on multiple scenarios to enable course
corrections
26
Last Year
Production By Well
50000
WO-612
WG-522
40000
66%
30000
10%
Cost to Plan
Cost to Plan
BBL
Month
Month
20000
WG-590
WG-528
10000
82%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Last Year
Year
Month
Week
Last 24 Hours
BOPD: 1.45M
BOPD: 12K
BOPD: 8K
BOPD: 8K
Delta: 95%
Delta: 95%
Delta: 95%
Dec
88%
Cost to Plan
Cost to Plan
Month
Month
Delta: 95%
Source: Microsoft
27
line of sight, through multiple lenses (time horizon, functional, cost etc.), to plan delivery
and business outcomes. This capability allows
the optimisation and integration of end-to-end
upstream commercial processes and links strategy captured in development plans to detailed
planning execution and performance management. The programme is expected to deliver
significant performance improvements (approximately 2% increase in ROACE) by enabling insight-driven decision-making and integrated, robust management and execution of
the plan. Another company based in Queensland Australia is in the process of installing
technologies (Enersight and WellSpring) to
model end-to-end physical flows of commodities, costs and cash flows in addition to performing full field economics and forecast production on both short term and life of field
basis.12 This capability will enable robust execution planning and production forecasting as
well as providing a simulation environment to
optimise strategic resource allocation decisions
in development plans.
Nevertheless, unless there is a timely and effective channel to communicate intelligence
back out to those who need it, the advantages
of analytics are reduced. Mobile and visualisation technologies are central to its success, given
how disparate energy workforces can be, and
how complex the relevant data is. Example
technologies include Microsofts iLink Up-
28
Sources:
2. ibid
Myles Kirby
Myles is a Strategy Analyst based in London. His
most recent work has included defining the
high-level principles behind the upstream strategic
resource allocation and integrated business
planning process at one of the major IOCs.
29
panies, visionary leaders with strong management teams are beginning to determine how to
leverage analytics in the context of asset-intensive business-to-business (B2B) industries.
Complexities in unconventional production
and declining production in existing conventional fields, coupled with data proliferation
and decreasing data storage costs are leading
to an exploration of analytics, with the ultimate
goal of creating more shareholder value.
30
Turning data into oil - how to use advanced analytics to increase production in declining fields
continued
31
Turning data into oil - how to use advanced analytics to increase production in declining fields
continued
An analytics mindset
describes the ability for
managers deeply connected
to business issues to see
how they can get more
from their existing data.
32
Turning data into oil - how to use advanced analytics to increase production in declining fields
continued
data scientists to successfully execute analytics, nor should data scientists be expected to
act as champions for analytics within a specific
organisation. The best approach is likely to be
partnering deep analytics experts with experienced managers who are close to the business.
Prediction becomes
easier and more accurate
in a world where
sampling may no longer
be necessary.
33
Turning data into oil - how to use advanced analytics to increase production in declining fields
continued
tists who know how to execute advanced analytics models. When it comes to the challenges
E&P companies face around industrialising
production and better defining reservoirs,
there is no doubt that analytics will provide
real competitive advantage to those who find
the right approach.
Article submitted by
Lance Dexter and David Morse
Lance Dexter
David Morse
In the energy space, Lance is particularly interested in the role innovation can play in transforming a traditional industry.
Daves previous Accenture research and publications have focused on innovation in alternative
transportation fuels and super-major operating
models.
Sources:
1. Financial Times, Shell writedown is bad news for US shale. Guy Chazan, August 1, 2013
2. Accenture, Digitizing Energy: Analytics-Powered Performance Opportunities for oil and gas companies to
improve business outcomes (2013)
3. See glossary for definition of Industrial Internet
4. The Economist A Different Game, February 2010. Available here: http://www.economist.com/node/15557465
5. This is based on work by Viktor Mayer-Schonberg and Kenneth Cukier in their book Big Data: A Revolution That
Will Transform How We Live, Work and Think (2013)
34
Opportunities
for advanced
analytics in
shale gas
production
S
set to becoming the worlds largest gas producer by 2015 and the largest oil producer by
2017, becoming almost entirely self-sufficient
in energy by 2035.1 Already, shale oil and gas
accounts for almost 50% of US oil and gas production, set to increase to 65% by 2030.2
35
based management to drive decisions and actions.8 Analytics can be descriptive (What
happened?), diagnostic (Why did it happen?), or more advanced, such as predictive
(What will happen?) or prescriptive (What
should happen?).9 Advanced analytics presents a significant opportunity to mitigate
these risks and reduce costs in shale gas production. In practice, with the large number of
wells required in a shale gas field, there is a
series of similar and repeatable processes in
well drilling and production comparable to
manufacturing. Large volumes of data on
pressure, temperature and the speed at which
the drill breaks the rock are generated throughout these processes and this data lends itself
to measurement and analysis of various metrics. For example, a comparison can be made
between different wells to identify cost saving
measures to demonstrate how to realise the
same outcome with fewer inputs.
Advanced analytics can also bring about efficiencies to wider shale gas operations.
Through recording, analysing and controlling
the transportation of water and other inputs
to the well, guesswork is taken out of shale
gas logistics. Global Positioning System (GPS)
36
37
Toby Lomax
Toby is a Resources Technology Consultant based
in London. He has over five years experience
working with oil and gas clients on SAP implementation.
Toby is an active member of the UKI Energy Book
Club.
Sources:
1. IEA, Reuters, FT
2. EIA (US Energy Information Administration), The
Economist, Accenture Analysis
3. Accenture Analysis
4. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/
pdf/usshaleplays.pdf
5. Digital Unconventional offering pack v1 2
6. Accenture presentation - Water and shale gasMiddle East
7. Shale gas extraction in the UK: a review of hydraulic fracturing (royalsociety.org/policy/projects/
shale-gas-extraction)
8. Davenport & Harris, Competing on Analytics: The
New Science of Winning, 2007
9. Kart, Linden, & Schulte, Extend Your Portfolio of
Analytics Capabilities, 2013
10. Accenture, Water and Shale Gas Development,
2012
11. News release Accenture and MIT to Use
Analytics to Help Shell Improve Cost-Effectiveness
and Productivity of Unconventional Drilling
Operations
38
continued and aggressive push into fuel retailing by the leading hypermarkets. Indeed, massive discounts on fuel have become the norm
and are used as a loss-leader to drive footfall
into supermarket stores. Unfortunately, the traditional fuel retail offer from the International
Oil Companies (IOCs) has, for the most part,
39
huge opportunity for oil companies to get really smart about their consumers. Indeed, by
consolidating this data into a single view of
each customer and running sophisticated analytics on it, oil companies can develop unparalleled insights into an individual consumers
buying behaviour enough to get any market-
40
discussions with our clients. Through Accenture Interactive (AI) we have a wealth of capability, tools and assets that we are bringing to
our energy clients to help integrate current and
future sources of data, draw insight from analytics to develop targeted offers, and execute
these offers through new digital channels. Our
capability is end-to-end in that we are one of
the only organisations in the world that can deliver on both the technical and creative sides of
new fuel retailing customer experiences.
The dilemma for our energy clients now is to
what extent they should embrace the digital
consumer. Clearly, to get this right will require
investment; and investment in downstream
has been a low priority across many of our oil
and gas clients for many years. Nevertheless,
the oil company that gets this right has the potential to create a step change in customer loyalty ultimately driving higher sales and revenue. For this to happen, these companies have
to act now.
Rich Kho
Rich Kho is a Resources Strategy Senior Manager
based in London. He has worked with clients across
the energy value chain with a focus on business and
operating model transformation.
His current interests and focus on the BP account
are on digital marketing and the digital consumer,
and specifically the impact on BPs fuel business
and operating model.
As a past Editor-in-Chief of Refined, Rich sits on the
Refined Editorial Board and is a Refined alumni.
41
Book Review:
42
Book Review: Untapped - The Scramble for Africas Oil by John Ghazvinian
continued
stresses that Shell can help fund some development and attempt to influence the direction of
the country; however, it must be careful not the
tread toes with a sovereign nation.
43
Book Review: Untapped - The Scramble for Africas Oil by John Ghazvinian
continued
Travelling across
Equatorial Guinea,
Ghazvinian discusses how
oil has turned some of the
smaller African states into
instant emirates.
ture. His perspective is that much of Chinas
aid to Africa comes in the form of cash payments that have few strings attached. This is
more favorable to local governments than the
aid that comes from Western countries because
it places few restrictions on the government.
Chinese oil companies are state-owned and
thus dont have to answer to shareholders and
44
Book Review: Untapped - The Scramble for Africas Oil by John Ghazvinian
continued
Michael Stratton
Michael is an Analyst based in North America. He
joined Accenture after as a Field Engineer for
Schlumberger.
Whilst working for Schlumberger, he had the
opportunity to work on a wide array of projects
spanning wildcat exploration, appraisal, to field
development. He also worked on projects in the
shallow water offshore environment as well as the
deepwater environment.
45
Results Summary
The supermajors continued to struggle in Q4
2013 as increased Exploration & Development
costs, stagnating oil prices and weak refining
margins again ushered in disappointing results across the board
The big five IOCs all reported Y-o-Y losses
for Q4. Shell grabbed the headlines, releasing
their first profit warning since 2004 as earnings
slumped 70% for the second quarter in a year.
46
sults for the majors. Total said weakened demand in Europe made it a particularly difficult
quarter for refineries in the region and the recently announced capacity cuts at Stanlow, the
UKs second largest refinery, are testament to
that phenomenon.
130
120
110
100
90
80
BP
Shell
Exxon
Chevron
Total
13
13
tOc
Ju
l-
13
13
rAp
12
t-
Ja
n-
12
Oc
lJu
r-
12
12
Ap
11
t-
11
l-
Ja
n-
Oc
4Q 2013
11
3Q 2013
r-
2Q 2013
Ju
1Q 2013
60
11
4Q 2012
70
Ap
$-
Macro Trends
Ja
n-
$2
47
IOCs
bp
Despite the groups divestment programme, BPs Q4 and full year results were hit by weaker refining margins, high
depreciation and exploration write-offs
Earnings/ Profit: Full-year underlying replacement cost profit was down by 22% to $13.4 billion for 2013, compared with $17.1
billion for 2012
Earnings narrative: The reported post-tax result of $2.8 billion for the quarter was down 27% when compared to the last quarter.
Production: Total reported production of oil and gas for 4Q 2013, including Russia, was 3.23 mboe/d
Downstream Sales: Total sales volumes of refined products was 5.5 mboe/d, a decrease of 3% compared to Q3
Analyst commentary: Lucas Hermann of Deutsche Bank In the upstream division, numbers were around $200m shy of our
expectations at $3.9bn. The company forecasts a production decline in 2014.
Share price impact: The quarterly update did not affect the share price much, being 0.1% higher in London trading on
05/02/2014
48
IOCs
Chevron
Chevron reports net income of $4.9 billion in Q4 and $21.4 billion for the full year
Earnings/Profit: Net income was down 31.9% Y-o-Y.
Earnings narrative: Q4 saw a Y-o-Y decline in output and Chevron will not meet its full-year output target of 2.65 mboe/d, as
announced in March 2013. Despite this, Chevron has maintained an industry-leading position in upstream earnings per barrel
for the past four years.
Production: Chevron produced 2.56 mboe/d during October and November. This is 4% lower than the full-quarter average of
2.67 mboe/d from the year-earlier period.
Downstream Sales: 20% decrease in U.S. downstream operations of $265m in Q4 2013 vs $331m in Q4 2012.
Analyst commentary: Chevron really struggled on production last year but it looks like theyre going to turn that around in
2014, Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis who rates Chevron shares a buy.
Share price impact: Chevron is expected to report a per share profit of $2.87.
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil saw lower-than-expected quarterly profit due to continually declining production coupled with heavy spending
to find fresh reserves.
Earnings/Profit: Net income was down 16% Y-o-Y.
Earnings narrative: The main reasons behind Exxons drop in fourth-quarter profits are lower oil prices and continued weak
refining margins. The effects of missed opportunities in shale investment and declining natural gas production are likewise making themselves felt.
Production: Exxons total oil and natural gas production fell 1.8% from the year-ago period to 4.2 mboe/d. As a result, quarterly
earnings decreased $976 million, while year-end earnings dropped $3 billion
Sales: Refinery throughput averaged 4.5 mboe/d, down 8%. Downstream earnings increased $324 million from the previous
quarter but were down $852 million from the past year. Chemical earnings dropped $48 million Y-o-Y and $115 million from Q3.
Analyst commentary: Theyve lost momentum already, reverting back to declining production and stagnant earnings. Brian
Youngberg, Edward Jones.
Share price impact: Earnings per share decreased 24% to $7.37.
49
IOCs
Shell
Shell reports fourth quarter earnings of $2.2 Billion and 2013 Earnings of $16.7 Billion down 70%, due to low shale gas
prices, problems in Nigeria and overcapacity in Asian refining
Earnings / Profit: Net income was down 70% Y-o-Y.
Earnings narrative: Shells 4Q, and full year results were particularly poor with the company raising its first profit warning for
10 years due to major issues with overcapacity in European and Asian refining and continued production issues in Nigeria.
Despite the large earnings miss investors maintained Shells strong share price due in part to a dividend increase and a strategy
based around long-term capital efficiency.
Production: Q4 global upstream produced 1.54 mboe/d in the Q4 2013, down from 1.64 mboe/d in Q4 2012.
Downstream Sales: 5% decrease in downstream sales from 6.4 mboe/d to 6.0 mboe/d.
Analyst commentary: Shells reduced spend and capital efficiency is encouraging for investors, as they start to focus on Returnon-Capital Oswald Clint, Sanford C. Bernstein.
Share Price Impact: Shells share price remained stable at 21.24 at the close.
Total
The group reported 2013 adjusted net income of 14.3 bn, a slight decrease from 2012 with both Upstream and
Downstream remaining stable .
Earnings / Profit: Adjusted net operating income was $15.8 billion compared to $17.2 billion in 2012, a decrease of 8%.
Earnings narrative: Lower income was due to poor results from the Upstream segment and, to a lesser extent, from the Refining
& Chemicals and Marketing & Services segments.
Production: Total hydrocarbon production was stable at 2.3 mboe/d in 2012.
Downstream Sales: Total refined product sales were up 3% to 1.8 mboe/d.
Analyst commentary: TOTAL is expected to take advantage of the increased demand for natural gas by leveraging existing assets
and adding more to its portfolio. Recently TOTAL acquired more offshore exploration permits and also increased its quarterly
dividend to 0.61/share. We expect a higher dividend once recent investments begin to pay-off. (Zacks, Rank #4, Sell).
Share Price Impact: The share price traded to $60.57 at market open in NYSE on the day of the announcement.
50
Independents
BG Group
Conoco
Phillips
BG Group reports fourth quarter revenue and other operating income up 14% to $5.43 billion
Earnings / Profit: Net income was up 11% Y-o-Y
Earnings narrative: The results for the quarter included a $1.29 billion post-tax impairment of certain assets in Egypt and a
$1.11 billion post-tax impairment of certain assets associated with the shale gas business in the USA.
Production: Production volumes decreased by 1% primarily as a result of the effects of reservoir decline in Egypt and lower
activity in the USA.
Downstream Sales: LNG Shipping & Marketing total operating profit increased 18% to $778 million in 4Q
Analyst commentary: Spot LNG prices strengthened during the quarter, which may have had a modest impact on LNG earnings. With first gas landed on Curtis Island (Australia), BG has delivered all major milestones set for 2013 Morgan Stanley
analysts.
Share price impact: Shares increased 1.6%, however, the stock price has yet to regain the level it traded at before the first output
downgrade knocked a fifth off its value in one day last October.
ConocoPhillips outshone larger competitors with a quarterly profit that beat expectations as it moved to overcome the
problems of high costs and lack of fresh reserves
Earnings/ Profit:Net income of $2.5 billion was up from $1.4 billion a year earlier
Earnings narrative: Q4 adjusted earnings were essentially flat Y-o-Y, primarily due to lower realized prices, lower volumes and
higher depreciation and operating costs associated with new production, offset by lower overall taxes.
Production: Production from continuing operations for Q4 was 1.5 mboe/d, a decrease of 93 mboe/d compared with Q4 2012.
Analyst commentary: In a note to clients, Ed Westlake of Credit Suisse dubbed Conoco the best performing large oil company,
citing 7% growth in cash flow despite asset sales, a reduced share count and more cash on the balance sheet.
Share price impact: The shares fell 0.1% to $65.75 at the close in New York. The stock is down 6.9% this year
51
Independents
Occidental
Talisman
Occidental reports fourth quarter net income of $1.6 billion and 2013 Earnings of $5.9 billion
Earnings / Profit: Net income was up 389% Y-o-Y.
Earnings narrative: Occidentals huge Y-o-Y profit rise can largely be attributed to one-off items, such as the part sale of an
investment in General Partner of Plains All American Pipeline, L.P, rather than an improved performance. Both upstream and
chemicals income figures were down while Midstream, Marketing and Other earnings were marginally up.
Production: For Q4 of 2013, daily oil and gas production volumes averaged 0.75 mboe/d, compared with 0.78 mboe/d in Q4
of 2012.
Downstream Sales: 2% decrease in net sales volumes per day 0.77 mboe/d in Q4 2013 vs 0.78 mboe/d in Q4 2012.
Analyst commentary: Occidental sold more than it produced, said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov. It took volumes out of inventory, and thats why it beat estimates.
Share price impact: Occidental dropped 0.6% to $87.82 in New York (29th Jan).
Talisman Energy reports unexpected billion-dollar loss in fourth quarter due to decreased production, along with lower
liquids price realizations
Earnings/ Profit:A net loss of $1 billion compared to a net profit of $376 million in Q4.
Earnings narrative: Loss reflective the reduced value of its North Sea operations, which have been a long-running headache
for the Calgary-based oil and gas producer.
Production: Total hydrocarbon production was down 1.3% to 0.39 mboe/d.
Analyst commentary: Talisman Energy posted an unexpected US$1-billion net loss in the fourth quarter, reflecting the reduced value of its North Sea operations (THE CANADIAN PRESS).
Share price impact: The share price increased 2% to CAD11.72 at market close in Toronto Stock Exchange on the day of the
announcement.
52
Glossary
term
Definition
Digital (adj.)
Digitise (verb)
Applying technology to make resources digital (a mobile sales force in an example of incremental digital improvement).
Digitalise (verb)
The process for turning digitised resources into new sources of revenue, growth and operational results that generate a premium to a
business.
Digital Business
An organisation that incorporates digital technology into their business to create revenue and results via innovative strategies, products,
processes and experiences.
Analytics
Big Data
Big Data describes the exponential growth, availability and use of information, which is diverse in type and not necessarily structured.
Drones
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or drones - are aircrafts with no pilot on board. UAVs can be remote-controlled (e.g. flown by a pilot
at a ground control station) or fly autonomously based on pre-programmed flight plans or more complex dynamic automation systems.
Google Glass
Google Glass is a wearable device developed by Google with an optical head-mounted display, which is positioned to become the first
mass-market ubiquitous computer.
A world where physical objects are seamlessly integrated into information networks, and where physical objects can become active
participants in business processes. Services are available to interact with these smart objects over the Internet, query and change
their state and any information associated with them, considering security and privacy.
Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
M2M refers to a system whereby a device can communicate through a network with an application to capture information, typically
without the need for human intervention. Simply put, it refers to technologies that allow both wireless and wired systems to
communicate with other devices of the same type.
53
Handy links
EXTERNAL LINKS
Energy pages on Accenture.com
Energy Information Administration
INTERNAL LINKS
The Energy Source - our centralised energy industry portal where you can
access the latest news and updates on energy, information about our segments,
services, and our fiscal 2014 strategy. Whats more you can collaborate with your
global Energy colleagues, access reusable assets and view Energy 24 webcasts.
WEF Energy
o More information on
Refined Homepage
Digitizing Energy Material
Energy Curriculum
Energy Get Smart Videos
Links to tools that can help you enhance your industry skills:
o
Platts
o
UK PIA
Energy24 replay
The Energy Stream is a tool that provides you with the latest
activities and updates on The Energy Source portal feel free to
post your feedback on this edition directly onto the stream
Energy Passport
Energy Capability Roadmap
My Learning
Resources Learning 360 tool
Energy Stream
54
Editor
Downstream
Jessica Hardy
London
jessica.g.hardy@
accenture.com
Sub-Editor
Downstream
Rachel Peat
London
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accenture.com
Editor
New Energy
Freddie Darbyshire
London
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ccenture.com
Sub-Editor
New Energy
Sam Curran
London
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Sub-Editor
Unconventionals
Myles Kirby
London
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Energy Article
Coordinator
Patrick Massey
London
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Editor at Large
Mike Moore
London
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Regional Editor
Inga Stein
Denmark
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Editor at Large
James Collins
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Regional Editor
Russia
Aleysa Kovaleva
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Editor at Large
Richard Kho
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Regional Editor
South Korea
Tae-Yoon Kim
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Editor
Technology
Brian Richards
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Regional Editor
Norway
Marisa Giles
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Editor
Upstream
Anna Deitz
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Regional Editor
Malaysia
June Tan
Kuala Lumpur
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Sub-Editor
Upstream
Hilary Dowdy
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Regional Editor
France
Clement Audouin
Paris
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Regional Editor
Netherlands
Krystal Ismail
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Australia
Rowan Fenn
Perth
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55