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This is an internal publication for the Accenture Energy Community and is not intended for external (client) distribution.

May 2014

Digital
disruption
in energy

Page 4:

Digital
disruption
in energy

Page 8:

Page 14:

Page 19:

3D printing in
upstream energy
an industrial
evolution

Here come the


drones can
unmaned aerial
vehicles radically
change how the
energy industry
operates?

The field worker of


the future are
wearable
technologies such
as Google Glass
the future of
mobility in the
energy industry?

Regular features:

Page 23:

Page 30:

Page 35:

Page 39:

Page 42:

Page 46:

Digitals role in
plugging the
missing middle
in upstream

Turning data into


oil - how to use
advanced analytics
to increase
production in
declining fields

Opportunities for
advanced analytics
in shale gas
production

Fuel retailing and


the digital consumer

Book Review:
Untapped - The
Scramble For
Africas Oil

Energy results:
Q4 2013

Your Research, News and Reviews for the Energy Community

Note from the Editor

Digital disruption in energy

ello Refined readers, and welcome to


Refined 36. As those who dialled into
Energy24 recorded from Accentures
Sophia Antipolis Technology Lab a few weeks
ago heard our Industry Managing Director
describe, the digital era represents a new
step forward for energy, bringing about a
new ecosystem, new players, new opportunities and new challenges for the sector.
In this edition of Refined, we are taking a
step forward into this digital world, by exploring a number of digital disruptions and what they mean for energy, through the lens of the industry chokepoints. As introduced in
the cover article by our new Technology Editor, Brian Richards, energy companies have as much - or more - to gain as any other industry by harnessing this digital disruption. And so the race is on for
energy firms to understand how to best leverage these to help solve
their pressing challenges and continue to deliver value.
At the industry level, we start by looking at 3D printing in the oil
and gas supply chain, before moving to unmaned aerial vehicles
(UAVs), and Google Glass. In the upstream, Myles Kirby shares his
perspective on how to approach plugging the missing middle whilst
Lance Dexter and David Morse review how companies can success-

fully turn data into oil, and Toby Lomax explores the potential for
advanced analytics in unconventional production more specifically.
Finally, Rich Kho, a Refined alumni and past Editor-in-Chief, proposes a new way forward for fuel retailers in the context of the digital revolution. As ever, this edition also includes the latest quarterly
results for you, as well as a book review by Michael Stratton as part
of our ongoing collaboration with the UKI Energy Book Club.
Congratulations to Michael Lamb who brings the iPad home this
quarter for his brilliant perspective on 3D printing as an industrial
evolution in the upstream supply chain. Rinat Matsukov and Shane
McIntyre come in as runners up. We will also reward all Refined
writers in this edition with a stamp in their Energy Passports, in recognition of their contributions to the global Energy Community of
Practice.
In the next edition, we will be exploring the new frontiers of energy. If you have an idea for an article related to this theme, or indeed
any topic, then please do get in touch with myself or another member of the Editorial Team (see more on our newly launched Refined
page on the Energy Source), or by posting your ideas on the Stream
(using the #Refined hashtag). Otherwise enjoy this issue!
Tessa Lennartz-Walker
Refined.Editor@accenture.com

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This is an internal publication for the Accenture Energy Community and is not intended for external (client) distribution.

Digital
disruption
in energy
The last decade of change and opportunity was driven by digital start-ups. The coming decade will see traditional companies become the next set of
digital giants Accenture Technology Vision 2014.

n 2005, text messages were sent peer-topeer and blogs were typically long essays.
Twitter, founded the next year, bucked traditional blogging and let users broadcast microblog posts (tweets) to the world. Today, after
less than ten years, only eight years after the
companys founding, Twitter has nearly 650

million users, hosts 58 million tweets a day, a


$30 billion valuation, and gross margins above
50%.
Over the last decade, technology companies
such as Twitter, Google, and Amazon have
found tremendous and rapid success not just
by understanding the technology of digital dis-

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This is an internal publication for the Accenture Energy Community and is not intended for external (client) distribution.

ruption including analytics, mobility, cloud


computing, and social media, but by making
them part of their core business strategy and
creating a significant competitive advantage.
These companies quickly realised that the potential of digital hinges on how information is
gathered, converged, analysed and then made

Digital disruption in energy


continued

available in real-time to make decisions and


meet objectives.
The last decade of change and opportunity
was driven by these digital start-ups, but the
coming decade will see traditional companies
become the next set of digital giants. Some
would argue that the rate of adoption of a new
technology hinges on its constraints and the
energy industry, faced with a number of ever
complex challenges including declining production rates, the need to increase capital and
operational efficiency and an ageing workforce
(to name but a few of the industry chokepoints
highlighted in this years Q1 edition of Refined) has as much or more to gain as any other
industry by harnessing this digital disruption
and technical innovation. The race is on for energy firms to understand how to leverage the
concepts of digital disruption to help solve
these pressing challenges and continue to deliver shareholder value.
The digital-physical blur
One key element behind the success of todays
digital giants was the push of digital technologies into the everyday activities of their consumers. These technologies have changed how

travel is managed, cabs are booked, friendships are established, and more. In short, they
no longer sit at the periphery of life but rather
are intrinsically related to its very core. This

The race is on for energy


firms to understand how to
leverage the concepts of
digital disruption to help
solve these pressing
challenges and continue to
deliver shareholder value.
digital-physical blur offers energy companies a model for how to use digital technologies not just to augment or modify existing
processes, but also how to radically change
them to deliver increasing value. A number of
key innovations explored in this edition are
introduced below.

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This is an internal publication for the Accenture Energy Community and is not intended for external (client) distribution.

Wearable computing
Wearable computing devices such as Google
Glass can allow workers in remote or distant
locations to receive over-the-shoulder coaching from workers across the world. By enabling
a remote worker to see what the on-site field
worker sees and hear what the field worker
hears, he or she can provide the on-site field
worker with assistance with maintenance, oneon-one training, as well as support during
safety issues. Its not just glasses either. The
consumerisation of smart watches, fitness devices, and other wearable technology will likely drive the cost down and capability up to a
point where energy companies can finally
achieve the vision of a fully networked and
smart worker. See The field worker of the future
article in this edition.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (drones)
Another example of this digital-physical blur
is made evident by unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs). UAVs have numerous industry-specific use cases, including pipeline surveys, flare
stack inspections, inspecting offshore platforms, ensuring wildlife safety, and monitoring flare emissions. Outfitted with a range of

Digital disruption in energy


continued

video and sensor technology, these aerial robots will extend the reach of workers to locations that are either too remote or dangerous
for workers. BP for example plans to deploy
unmanned aerial vehicles to inspect pipelines
in remote areas of Alaska at a fraction of the
cost of a piloted helicopter within the next
three years.1 See the article on Here come the
drones in this edition.
3D printing
Like drones, the maturation of 3D printing
also suggests increasing relevance for the industry. 3D printers are moving down the cost
curve and increasingly able to develop more
complex products, making them a more competitive alternative to shipping and storing
assets. This new digital supply chain could
enable the manufacturing of parts that are no
longer in production, the development of
highly specialised tools, and the production
of parts where and when they are needed in
remote locations such as the Arctic or far offshore. This is likely to become a hotly contested area for Oil Field Services (OFS) companies
- GE is already planning to begin 3D printing
fuel nozzles for gas turbines later this year.2

See the article on 3D printing in upstream energy


in this edition.

The technologies
highlighted in this edition of
Refined just begin to
scratch the surface of the
possibilities that lie ahead
over the next decade.
Advanced analytics
Although the energy industry has had no
shortage of investment in data over the past
decade, this data continues to be of poor quality, and despite growing exponentially, it has
so far failed to deliver on promised benefits.
Many companies may be forgiven for thinking
that a significant return on their data is out of
reach. However, visionary leadership and determination certainly pay off. As an example, a

Your Research, News and Reviews for the Energy Community


This is an internal publication for the Accenture Energy Community and is not intended for external (client) distribution.

large oil and gas producer with annual revenues in excess of $5 billion used its data supply
chain to feed advanced analytical models that
optimise beam pumps and better understand
producer failures. Those two use cases alone
could be worth more than $100 million per year
in additional production and cost savings - and
that is only the beginning of opportunities that
lie ahead. See the articles on Turning data into
oil, Opportunities for advanced analytics in shale
gas production and Fuel retailing and the digital
consumer in this edition.
The technologies highlighted in this edition
of Refined just begin to scratch the surface of
the possibilities that lie ahead over the next
decade. When one thinks about other possibilities such as combining big data in combination
with machine learning or artificial intelligence,
or the rise of the industrial internet and machine-to-machine (M2M) technologies to drive
greater production, efficiency, and asset integrity, the possibilities of digital disruption appear to be endless. However, as this edition of
Refined shows, the real value and disruption
will require bringing digital capabilities such
as these together and integrating them directly
into individual business strategies.

Digital disruption in energy


continued

From periphery to the core


The global energy sector is being reshaped by a
confluence of diverse forces. As a result, existing operational approaches and legacy business models are being tested like never before.
Against this backdrop, digital technologies
provide organisations with an opportunity to
achieve significant improvements in performance. Forward-thinking players that successfully transform into digital businesses by embracing new ways of working will become the
industrys disruptors of tomorrow. The time
has come for business leaders to define their
organisations place in this brave new digital
world. Each player has the opportunity to be a
digital disrupterrecreating and redefining its
business to create competitive advantage. The
potential for growth is limited only by the creativity of the enterprise itself.

Sources:

Brian Richards
Brian Richards is a Senior Manager and the
Innovation Lead for the NA Energy practice with
responsibility for bringing AccenturesEnergy
clients the latest technologyand innovation from
both inside and outside of Accenture and helping
them craft differentiating strategies. Prior to this
role, Brian was a Manager for the Accenture
Technology Labs in Chicago for six years.

1. Alaska uses drones to inspect oil and gas pipelines


at a fraction of the cost, Reuters, Jun 7, 2013 [http://
www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/06/07/alaska-usesdrones-to-inspect-oil-and-gas-pipelines-at-a-fraction-of-the-cost/], accessed Feb 18, 2014.
2. http://www.gereports.com/post/74545205358/supersize-me-ge-takes-3d-printing-to-massive-gas
The Economist, The third industrial revolution, 21
April 2012. Available online at: http://www.economist.com/node/21553017
Nick Butler, Energys Digital Revolution. Available
online at: http://blogs.ft.com/nick-butler/2012/11/20/
energys-digital-revolution/
The Economist, The rise of the sharing economy,
9 March 2013. Available online at: http://www.
economist.com/news/leaders/21573104-interneteverything-hire-rise-sharing-economy
Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, The New Digital
Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and
Business (2013).

Article submitted by Brian Richards

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3D printing in upstream energy


an industrial evolution

3D printing: the Third Industrial


Revolution?
3D printing the human body;1 3D printed
food is a lesson in how not to feed the world;2
a technology that has the potential to change
everything;3 that will creatively destroy how
we do business;4 an engineering feat which

hail(s) the next industrial revolution as the


concept of mass-production is rendered obsolete.5 A lot of lyric has been waxed over threedimensional (3D) printing these past few years.
The mere mention of the topic to some people
can induce glee-widened eyes and frenzied
mutterings of Star Trek replicators.

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Rhetoric aside, what actually is 3D printing? 3D printing is an additive manufacturing


process that takes computer-aided design
(CAD) blueprints of a 3D image and converts
them into solid items (see Figure 1). The technology itself is now more than 30 years old,
during which time it has primarily been em-

3D printing in upstream energy an industrial evolution


continued

ployed in prototyping. Today it is edging its


way into mainstream manufacturing, driven
by the convergence of technical and social
advances such as the diversification of 3D
printable materials, improvements in design
software, and the general decrease in hardware costs.

Laser Sintering

Fused Filament Fabrication


Extrusion of a filament of
plastic resin, metal or other
material though a heated
nozzle that traces the parts
layer by layer

The Economist has compared 3D printing to


the Third Industrial Revolution.6 Demand for
it is projected to rise more than 20 per cent per
year to over $8 billion globally by 2020 (see
Figure 2).7 It is already used in the automotive
industry (BMW engineers use 3D printed tools),
the aerospace industry (the BAE-constructed

Support Material Filament


Build Material Filament

Lenses
X-Y scanning mirror

Drive wheels

Laser

Laser Beam
Sintered part

Liquifiers
Extrusion nozzles

Leveling roller
Powder bed

Powder Feed
supply

X-Y scanning mirror


Laser
Elevator

Part
Foam base
Build platform

Item

Curing and solidifying of a


liquid resin by employing an
ultraviolet laser beam to
build parts

Lenses

Extrusion head

% Annual Growth

Stereolithography

Fusing of small particles of


plastic, metal, ceramic, or glass
powders into a mass that has a
desired 3-dimensional shape

3D Printing Demand
North America
Western Europe
Asia/Pacific
Central & South America
Eastern Europe
Africa/Mideast

775
361
194
183
7
13
17

2012

2017

20072012

20122017

1950
900
495
445
25
35
50

5000
2285
1225
1170
75
103
142

20.3
20.0
20.6
19.4
29.0
21.9
24.1

20.7
20.5
19.9
21.3
24.6
24.1
23.2

Figure 2: World 3D printing demand


($millions)
Source: Freedonia Group

Laser beam
Vat

Sweeper
Layered part

Support material
spool

Build platform
Powder feed piston

Powder Feed piston

Build chamber

Powder Feed supply


Build piston

Figure 1: Types of 3D printing.

2007

Liquid
Photopolymer

Part supports

Build material spool

UK Tornado fighter jet has flown with 3D printed parts in three of its systems), and in the mining industry to build scale models of shafts and
prototype parts.8 This articles sets out to explore
the value of this new technology for oil and gas
companies, and how they can most effectively
reap the maximum benefit from it.

Source: Accenture, 3D Printing - Basic concepts, application areas and


challenges, April 2013. Copyright 2008 CustomPartNet

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This is an internal publication for the Accenture Energy Community and is not intended for external (client) distribution.

The story in oil and gas so far


The integration of 3D printing into the oil and
gas sector has already begun. The Oilfield Services (OFS) company Halliburton uses the
technology on a small scale to create parts
used in drilling, and General Electrics (GE)
Oil and Gas Division has launched an initia-

3D printing in upstream energy an industrial evolution


continued

tive to 3D print metal fuel nozzles for their


gas turbines. In fact, a significant portion of
the $100 million that GEs oil and gas division
are investing in technology over the next two
years is going towards 3D printing.9 Oil and
gas companies also use 3D printing to aid
with prototyping with significant benefits.
At GE, the design loop for the creation of
pipeline monitoring robots (known as pigs
see Figure 3) has been reduced from 12
weeks to 12 hours thanks to an on-site 3D
printer the size of a hotel minibar fridge.10

Figure 3: A General Electric pig.


Source: http://www.3ders.org/articles/20140124-3dprinting-drills-into-the-oil-industry.html

Drilling deeper into the benefits of 3D


printing
The upstream energy sector operates in increasingly remote locations, with diminishing real
reserves and an increased focus on cost reduction. As such, the most obvious benefits of 3D
printing relate to the optimisation and compression of the supply chain. 3D printing has the
potential to alter the point of manufacture,
shrink delivery lead times, and allow on-demand, on-site production with a concurrent reduction in costly downtime. Sounds impressive,
but how will 3D printing achieve this?
A desktop supply chain: Due to the high, fixed,
production costs of both equipment and labour,
any downtime or production outages for oil and
gas companies are extremely expensive and, in
many cases, related to equipment parts failure.
As a result, operations either hold excess inventory to guard against such incidents or incur
extremely high transport costs to replace parts
at short notice. A core feature of 3D printing is
that it requires no tooling and no minimum
batch size to order or manufacture. A single 3D
printer loaded with designs for multiple products makes it possible for these parts to be print-

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ed on-site, thus averting the soaring costs related


to downtime - an insourcing manufacturing
strategy for remote locations. Printing the parts
in-situ also takes a substantial chunk out of
transportation and warehousing costs, removes
the risk of obsolescence of parts, and enables a
material and energy-efficient approach throughout a products entire lifecycle.
These savings only relate to the benefits delivered on a site-by-site basis. By combining
these with the concept of a globally available
digital Service Parts Library, a remote location with an advanced on-site 3D printing capability could have instant 24/7 access to new
designs and innovations at a company level
(see Figure 4). Imagine a global supply network where every supplier has a 3D printer
that the designer can print to at any time,
writes Gavin Davidson from NetSuite, a cloudbased software company.11 Diagnostic and design capabilities are thus centralised, and costs
associated with traditional supply chains - with
the exception of the raw materials required for
printing - become an anachronism.12
Innovation at pace: Time also matters in prototyping. Design changes can be made more

10

3D printing in upstream energy an industrial evolution


continued

Demand

Accentures Cloud for


Manufacturing
Ecosystem (ACME)

Storefront &
Customization

Retail storefront,
Distribution center,
On-site printer

Manufactured
Product

Digital Rights Mgmt


Printer Sourcing

Figure 4: 3D printing business model.


accurately in fewer steps by simply tweaking
the CAD blueprint, which considerably shortens the development and retooling process (as
demonstrated by GE in the pig design example given above). This is extremely useful for
companies working in oil sands or deep sea
locations. Engineers currently design and
produce new parts using two-dimensional (2D)
drawings. Using 3D representation engineers
can more accurately validate the part in ques-

Source: Accenture 3D printing opportunities, Dec 12 2013

tion, eliminating lengthy design processes and


costly miscalculations. This paves the way for
fully customisable production set-ups, where
the entire portfolio of equipment can be tailored to meet the conditions and requirements
of a specific site.
Less waste, more revenue: In the long-term,
the additive nature of 3D printing (i.e. parts
are built by adding materials in the precise

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quantities required as opposed to traditional


subtractive manufacturing techniques) ensures
minimal waste, which helps address both
environmental concerns and costs associated
with disposal. The technology also provides
energy companies with new prospective revenue streams, both in terms of the provision of
the raw material (oil and gas companies are
ideally placed to provide the chemical powders
and plastics primarily used in 3D printing) and
in the leasing of part designs and patents
through a digital service parts market.
Several obstacles loom large
Despite the potential benefits, the road to full
realisation is winding and pot-holed. Any appreciable integration of 3D printing into the upstream supply chain hinges on the successful
navigation of significant challenges - some internal to an organisation, others inherent to the
technology itself.
Technological limitations: A large proportion
of the items used in upstream energy are precision-engineered in order to be able to withstand significant loads and challenging environments. While the production of items made

11

3D printing in upstream energy an industrial evolution


continued

of multiple materials (or composites) has


become technically feasible, 3D printing remains relatively unproven for precision-engineered parts in large scale production.
Furthermore, product safety and quality features must be certified. Finally, there are also
limitations to the complexity of parts that can
be produced as 3D printing still essentially
builds parts in one piece. To create items consisting of more than one part a manufacturer
would have to invest significantly to introduce
some sort of assembly system, either humandriven or automated, such as is used in the
automotive industry to assemble cars.13
Software barriers and Intellectual Property:
3D printing also poses significant computational challenges. The fabrication of complex
surfaces and intricate designs requires an
extremely high-resolution model of the object,
often amounting to petabytes (PB) of data,
which current printing software has difficulty
processing and storing. Software will need to
be improved and user-friendly front-end
applications developed before on-site, day-today use can become commonplace.
Furthermore, to realise the full potential of the

technology, advances must be made in the


systems used to manage digital libraries of 3D
designs. Some, including Accentures own, are
in production, but we are still quite a way off
from a fully-realised iTunes-type e-printing
management system. This challenge in and of
itself raises the quandary of Intellectual
Property (IP) ownership. Who owns the rights
to the CAD designs, and what happens if those
designs are shared? Who is liable if an infringing object is 3D-printed? The global automotive
aftermarket is predicted to see about $15 billion
in 3D theft in 2016 and, while the technology is
not nearly as mature within upstream energy,
IP considerations need to be fully addressed
before 3D printing is effectively integrated into
the supply chain. 14
One size does not fit all: Any energy company
looking to adopt 3D printing would need to
refresh its internal supply chain strategies and
inventory policies, requiring significant concept
and process changes in the front and back-end.
Detailed analysis must be carried out on a
case-by-case basis to identify those parts with
significant complexity or high customisability
where 3D printers can enable faster and cheap-

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er fabrication. Pending the development of an


entirely automated supply chain, traditional
factory-line fabrication may continue to be the
best solution for many mass-produced parts
due to speed and scalability.15
Looking forwards
Technology observers expect 3D printing to be
fully adopted and productive within the next
decade.16 As 3D printing continues to evolve
over the next few years, it has the potential to
address key challenges within the energy industry: minimization of downtime, significant reduction of costs related to transportation and
warehousing, a leaner and greener approach
throughout the entire product lifecycle, and the
availability of new revenue streams.
Energy companies wishing to capitalise on
this technology will need to walk a fine line between overestimating changes over the next
three years and underestimating changes over
the next ten. Those companies that recognise
these emerging trends and adapt to this more
complex supply chain are those likely to soar.
Control and visibility over the supply chain will
be crucial in order to analyse options and make
proactive decisions based on real data as to the

12

3D printing in upstream energy an industrial evolution


continued

cases in which the myriad benefits this technology brings can be most effectively delivered.
The key will be to engineer a position from
which companies can smoothly transition to a
digitalised supply chain without compromising
or breaking the existing models. This will require clear strategic roadmaps and digitally-enabled operating models for supply chain management over the next five years.
Many experts are beginning to predict that,
given a long enough time-frame, standard
manufacturing will die.17 Whether they view
this prospect with excitement or dread, or likely
a volatile concoction of the two, energy companies must today begin to address the opportunities and associated challenges that 3D printing,
as a disruptive technology, brings. James Matthew Barrie, the Scottish author and dramatist,
said of the printing press that it was either the
greatest blessing or the greatest curse of modern
times, one sometimes forgets which;18 it falls
upon energy companies themselves to assert
what 3D printing will be to them.
Article submitted by Michael Lamb

Michael Lamb
Michael Lamb is a Resources ICP Consultant
based in London. He has advised Energy and
Utilities clients on organisational design, training,
and stakeholder engagement. Michaels industry
interests run across Resources, with a particular
focus on unconventionals and new energy.

Sources:

1. The next step: 3D printing the human body,


Telegraph, Feb 11 2014,
2. 3D printed food is a lesson in how not to feed the
world, The Guardian, Feb 11 2014
3. Why 3D Printing Will Change How Businesses
Deliver, Natalie Burg, Sep 24 2013
4. CREDIT SUISSE: 3D Printing Is Going To Be Way
Bigger Than What The 3D Printing Companies Are
Saying, Rob Wile, The Business Insider, Sep 17 2013
5. Has 3D printing in the home been over-hyped?, Jane
Wakefield, BBC News, Apr 22 2013
6. A third industrial revolution, The Economist, Apr 21
2012
7. 3D printing: not yet a new industrial revolution, but
its impact will be huge, Jim Chalmers, The Guardian,
Dec 10 2013

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8. 3D printing: Can it transform the mining supply


chain?, Jean-Marc Ollagnier, Nov 06 2013
9. GEs 3D Printing Know-How Benefits Oil & Gas
Division, Michael Molitch-Hou, 3D Printing
Industry, Jan 28 2014
10. 3D printing drills into the oil industry, 3Ders.org,
Jan 24 2014
11. 3D Printing and the Future of Manufacturing, CSC,
Autumn 2012
12. Accenture research envisages the following scenario;
a particular part fails and the fault is logged, a central
service centre locates a similar functioning part (on
site or elsewhere) and, using a three dimensional
scanning device, creates a digital replica of the required part and sends the digital model with required
raw material specifications to the location requiring
the part for production on site. (A new landscape for
mining, Andrew Brimacombe & Henrik Axelsson,
Accenture, Nov 06 2013)
13. My 80 Year Prediction On 3D Printing And Robotics,
Alex Cho, Seeking Alpha, Oct 10 2013
14. 3D printing: not yet a new industrial revolution, but
its impact will be huge, Jim Chalmers, The Guardian,
Dec 10 2013
15. 3D Printing: A technology that will disrupt your
business, Accenture Innovation Center and
Accenture Technology Labs, Dec 08 2013
16. 3D printing: Can it transform the mining supply
chain?, Jean-Marc Ollagnier, Nov 06 2013
17. My 80 Year Prediction On 3D Printing And Robotics,
Alex Cho, Seeking Alpha, Oct 10 2013
18. Sentimental Tommy, J. M. Barrie, 1896

13

Here come the drones

can unmaned aerial vehicles radically


change how the energy industry operates?

or many, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles


(UAVs) - more colloquially known as
drones - bring to mind images of global
conflict and controversial military operations.
However, as their applications have started to
evolve, so have these connotations. When
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos announced in
December 2013 that his company was testing
the idea of delivering packages via UAVs, the
moment had arrived when commercial appli-

cations for UAV technology suddenly seemed


a viable proposition.1 More and more industries are now realising the commercial potential of this technology and the numerous costsaving applications that it offers so what
might these look like for the energy industry?
UAVs, or remotely operated aerial vehicles
(ROAVs), are powered, aerial vehicles that do
not carry a human operator, and can fly autonomously, or be piloted remotely.2 The types of

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UAVs vary significantly, but they can be broadly categorised into three distinct groups: governmental, commercial air transport, and general aviation.3 It is the latter that is of most
interest to commercial businesses. While UAVs
are unlikely to become a part of our daily lives
in the immediate future, they will soon begin
taking on much larger roles for individual consumers and businesses - from changing the
way farmers manage their crops to revolution-

14

Here come the drones - can UAVs radically change how the energy industry operates?
continued

and gas companies can be considered across


two categories; first, as tools to take information and data to a site and back; secondly, as
tools to harness energy and turn it into a useful
product. Both are considered below.

Expenditure forecast $bn


14

Rest of world R&D


Rest of world procurement
US R&D
US procurement

12
10
8
6
4
2
0

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Year
Speculative UCAV procurement not included

Figure 1: the world UAV market 20112020


Source: Teal Group

ising private security, to delivering groceries


and e-commerce orders perhaps even aerial
advertising.4 The Teal Group forecasts that of
the $89 billion in cumulative spending on
UAVs globally over the next 10 years, some
$8.2 billion of that amount will be spent on
commercial and civilian drone uses.5
UAV opportunities are also opening up
for energy companies. UAVs can aid exploration, be used for pipeline leak detection processes, and support hydrocarbon release cleanup operations. Even wind and solar energy
may be harnessed via UAV technology. Broadly, the opportunities presented by UAVs for oil

UAVs: the industry worker bees


As the majority of the energy industry looks to
streamline operations and reduce cost, UAVs
offer an opportunity to help.
Energy companies already use ROAVs to
monitor and manipulate wells at extreme
underwater depths (e.g. VideoRay LLC6), yet
the potential benefits of their airborne cousins
(UAVs) is yet to be realised. BP and other companies currently use manned helicopters to
survey their pipelines. Helicopters can run at
several thousand dollars per hour, while renting a lightweight drone can cost as little as $20
an hour.7 Already, ConocoPhillips, Shell and
BP have expressed an interest in UAV technology and are already in the process of planning
UAVs into their day-to-day operations. BP
Pipelines plans to deploy its first UAVs in Alaskas Northern Slope somewhere around 2016,
and its been researching how UAVs can help it
improve efficiency and cut costs.8

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Figure 2: view from micro-drone (flare


inspection)
Source: Microdrones UAV
Greg Walker, a manager at the University of
Alaskas Unmanned Aircraft Programme, who
has worked with companies to test the systems
for monitoring pipelines, speculates that current technology would allow flights over hundreds of kilometres of infrastructure to look for
leaks or erosion. I could sit here in Fairbanks,
which is in the middle of the 800-mile Alaskan
pipeline and fly north to Prudhoe Bay or south
to Valdez on an almost daily basis looking for
hazards.9
Savings are already being realised today. Accentures David Hill refers to an energy company based out of Sarawak, Malaysia, that gen-

15

Here come the drones - can UAVs radically change how the energy industry operates?
continued

erated $32 million in savings through the use


of UAVs. Previously, the company had to shut
down operations for maintenance on a regular
basis, given dangerous conditions in the flaring area. Today, using Aeryon Scouts10 and
Draganfly drones11, which weigh only 2.5
pounds, pictures of the flares can be taken
while they are burning and then analysed.
Avoiding refinery shutdowns in this way has
the potential to save millions.
Additionally, there is also significant potential
for UAVs to identify mineral deposits and discover new oil and gas reserves, as researchers in
Switzerland and Germany have demonstrated.
The Centre for Integrated petroleum research
(CIPR) and universities in Norway are using
UAVs to map new oil reserves on inaccessible
land.12 The UAVs help define the local geology
by taking aerial shots of rocks, including rock
type and thickness of sedimentation - a technique called virtual outcrop geology. Similarly,
Professor John Howell, a Geoscientist at the
University of Aberdeen explains that SAFARI, a
project supported by 24 oil companies, is hoping to develop a fully searchable database of
relevant rock formations to support oil companies build better models of the subsurface and
improve recovery from oilfields.13

UAVs can also help mitigate environmental


concerns. As an example, BP used UAVs to
help detect sights for clean-up in the aftermath
of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010.14
Shell, having begun research in 2005, has been
using UAVs to assess environmental impact by
tracking and monitoring marine animals and
biodiversity in offshore drilling areas.15 Operating from a research vessel in the Beaufort Sea,
the team uses Scan Eagles, systems that weigh
18 kilogrammes (kg) (also deployed by the US
Navy) to survey ice seals in areas of the Bering
Sea that are difficult to access with piloted
planes. There, the UAVs stealth has proved to
be of significant advantage: some flights were
so quiet they brought back pictures of seals at
rest, said Robyn Angliss, deputy director of
the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)s National Marine Mammal Laboratory. Utilising these multiple functionalities make UAVs a very attractive
proposition for the oil and gas industry.
Using UAVs to harness energy
UAVs can be also be used as a means to create
energy. Makani Power, recently acquired by
Google X, the search giants secretive research
and investment arm,16 is a cleantech company

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that for several years has pursued a unique


goal to float kite-like wind turbines higher
into the air, where they can harness the more
powerful, more consistent high-altitude winds.
The interim CEO of Makani, Don Montague,
believes that there is a great opportunity here
for [UAV] technology to revolutionise the energy industry... [UAVs] are cheaper and lighter
to build than conventional wind turbines and
we are in development of a turbine that will
that generate power for three cents per kilowatt hour.
Another company harvesting solar, wind,
and heat energy from 50,000 feet above the
surface of the planet is New Wave Energy UK,
a new start-up based out of the US.17 By equip-

Figure 3: Makani Power airborne kite-like


wind turbines
Source: Makani Power

16

Here come the drones - can UAVs radically change how the energy industry operates?
continued

ping each drone with multiple wind turbines,


four rotors and a flat base for generating solar
power, each vehicle will be able to power itself and generate an additional 50 Kilowatt
(kW) that can be transmitted wirelessly to the
ground.18 Michael Burdett, co-founder of New
Wave Energy UK, argues that through reduced generation and transmission costs, this
is a real viable source of renewable energy.
The company rhetoric has been endorsed
indeed University of Californias Mark Delucchi and Stanford Universitys Mark Jacobson
argue that wind could provide 50% of the
worlds power supply in just 20 to 40 years19.
Both these companies are in their early stages
of development - only time will tell if these
new technologies will become a game changer
for the industry.
Its not all plain flying
What are the challenges to UAV deployment?
The first is safety. A key concern around the
use of UAVs is pilotless drones colliding with
one another, other aircraft, buildings and
even people. As such, the US Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) is overseeing a gradual
development of systems and rules to be im-

Figure 4: Aeryon Scout (unmaned aircraft)


Source: Reuters

plemented by September 2015 that will guarantee safety protocol, as well as privacy.20 For
the latter, there are no easy answers. In the
US, federal lawmakers and civil liberty advocates are calling for greater oversight of data
collection by UAVs and this is likely to be
repeated across other geographies as UAV
technology is adopted internationally.
A second major challenge is regulation. In
the US, the only way an aerial drone or UAV
can be cleared for flight in US airspace is to
receive a special permit from the FAA. Since
2009, the FAA has issued 1,387 Certifications
of Authorisation (COAs) for limited UAV
flights, to research, educational, and govern-

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ment entities and as of December 2013, only


545 of these were active21. To facilitate access,
the FAA wants to allow aerial commercial
drones to fly without these special permits
and has put together a plan to make this happen. It estimates that around 7,500 commercial drones of the 25kgs variety will be in operation by 2020.22 This cautiousness is also
found in the EU. Indeed the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) only grants such
certification on a case-by-case basis, making it
difficult for commercial businesses to implement this technology.
The future of UAVs
These challenges considered, the UAV concept
still has wings. Two areas that could be targeted with UAVs are the Arctic and the Gulf of
Mexico. The difficult-to-access and remote terrains of the Arctic will require a significant
amount of unmanned power to help survey
pipelines, track inevitable spills, and be used in
the exploration of new areas. Likewise, the
Gulf of Mexico is receiving renewed market interest due to new legislation on the US-Mexico
trans-boundary agreement and the next lease
auction in August 2014. Here, under less regu-

17

Here come the drones - can UAVs radically change how the energy industry operates?
continued

lated conditions, UAVs could be put to great


use on deepwater rigs.
Enhanced refinery safety, cheaper operational costs and a new source of potential energy
generation will likely catch the industrys attention. Consequently, governments, commentators and industry players should start to realise and pursue the benefits that drones can
bring, whilst mitigating some of the challenges
that will undoubtedly arise. And with the landscape of energy increasingly digitised, it seems
likely that UAV technology will be a significant
part of its future.
Article submitted by Shane McIntyre

Shane McIntyre
Shane is a Strategy Analyst based in London. He
has worked with a number of Energy and Utilities
clients, most recently within an IOCs Upstream
Finance organisation and as part of a smart meter
rollout project.
Shanes industry interests lie in upstream oil and
gas, unconventionals, mining and new energy.

Sources:

1. New York Post, Jeff Bezos and the future of drone


delivery service. December 6 2013.
2. Ozdemir, U. Design of a Commercial Hybrid VTOL
UAV System, Journal of Intelligent & Robotic
Systems, 74, 371-393, Apr 2014
3. Marinho, C., de Souza, C. and Motomura, T.
In-Service flares inspection by unmanned Aerial
Vehicles (UAVs). 18th World Conference on
Nondestructive Testing, 16-20 April 2012, Durban,
South Africa
4. The Economist, Unmanned Aircraft Game of
Drones. December 2013.
5. Rubin, R. Drones: Quickly Navigating Toward
Commercial Application, Starting With E-Commerce
and Retail. Business Insider Jan 2014.
6. VideoRay - http://www.videoray.com/applications/
offshore.html
7. Bayles, C. Energy Firms Eye Drones for Pipeline
Management. Earth Imaging Journal. Industry
insights and Trends. 2011
8. Business Insider. Drones: Quickly Navigating
Toward Commercial Application, Starting With
E-Commerce And Retail. Jan 2014.
9. Gao, J., Yan, Y., and Wang, C. Research on the
Application of UAV Remote Sensing in Geologic
Hazards Investigation for Oil and Gas Pipelines.
ICPTT 2011: pp. 381-390
10. Aeryon Labs Inc - http://www.aeryon.com/products/avs/aeryon-scout.html
11. DraganFly Innovations Inc - http://www.draganfly.
com/our-customers/industrial.php
12. Andreassen, K. Multidisciplinary oil success.
University Of Bergen. July 2013

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13. Enterprising Energy. Unmanned flying drones to


help identify oil reserves. January 2014
14. Oil & Energy Daily. From the Battlefield to the
Oilfield: Drones Appear on the Alaskan Horizon.
October 2013
15. Muttin, F., 2011 Umbilical deployment modelling
for tethered UAV detecting oil pollution from ship.
Applied Ocean Research. 33, 4, 332-343.
16. Motherboard, Google Thinks Autonomous Flying
Drones Are the Future of Clean Energy. May 2013
17. Oil Price, Drones will Generate Energy at 50,000 Feet
then Beam it Back to Earth. Nov 2013
18. Oil Price, Drones will Generate Energy at 50,000 Feet
then Beam it Back to Earth. Nov 2013
19. Stanford Report, The world can be powered by
alternative energy, using todays technology, in 2040 years, says Stanford researcher Mark Z. Jacobson,
Jan 2011
20. Petroleum News, FAA clears way for use of drones
by oil industry off Alaska, Aug 2013
21. Business Insider. Drones: Quickly Navigating
Toward Commercial Application, Starting With
E-Commerce And Retail. Jan 2014
22. Business Insider. Drones: Quickly Navigating
Toward Commercial Application, Starting With
E-Commerce And Retail. Jan 2014

18

The field worker of the future


are wearable technologies such as Google Glass the future of mobility in the energy industry?

Wearable technology: a new dress code for


the energy industry?
The oil and gas industry is under increasing
pressure to deliver more with less: less time,
less people, less investment. As part of this

drive towards efficiency, companies are increasingly turning to new technology solutions for help. Traditionally, this has involved
implementing large Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions to optimise core business

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processes; however, this can be of limited


value to field workers on the front line with
such solutions unlikely to significantly increase efficiency in daily tasks such as pump
repair. However, with recent advances in

19

The field worker of the future


continued

wearable technology, energy companies may


be on the brink of enabling the field worker
of the future.
Before assessing how wearable technology
could be used across the oil and gas industry
in the future, it is important to define what
wearable technology is. If asked for a definition, the modern consumer will quickly name
Google Glass, smart watches or GPS (Global
Positioning System) wristbands. While devices such as these are seen as relatively modern
developments, it is worth noting that wearable devices have been around for more than
two decades. Some might remember an electronic watch with an incorporated calculator
feature that was launched back in the 1990s,
or the head-mounted displays that allowed
users to play video games with a pseudo-3D
image in front of their eyes. However it is only
in the last year or two that wearable devices
have become smart enough to establish a
market that the oil and gas industry may soon
be able to leverage to assist in their ever-increasing appetite for efficiency.
Probably the most intriguing of all the upcoming wearable devices is Google Glass - a
small computer in the form of glasses, which

projects information on the lens in front of the


users eye. As of now, the technology is still
under development, with the first public release expected in late 2014. Currently the

Before assessing how


wearable technology could
be used across the oil and
gas industry in the future, it
is important to define what
wearable technology is.
functionality of the device is limited it can
run simple applications like searching information on the web and sending text messages.
But recently a number of researchers began to
explore the potential application of the device
in healthcare for remote consultation during
operative procedures.1 Such developments
have interesting implications for other industries, for example in oil and gas.

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A server, a hammer and the Glass


Todays major energy companies are continually investing to keep up with the development of new technology, machinery and information systems.2 For example, to support real
time decision-making, major energy companies have implemented complex information
systems that analyse vast amounts of data
from field sensors and meters. However, as oil
and gas companies still largely depend on a
field-based workforce there are limits on
how quickly and effectively this valuable
information and insight can be transformed
into action.
Lets first consider the specific value that
Google Glass could bring to the energy industry. A worker would be presented with a task
in front of her/his eyes, along with the route
to the next object. By the time the worker approaches the destination point, the device
would have downloaded detailed text, audio
or video instructions related to the task, which
will have been prepared by an expert in the
dispatchers room. During task execution, the
worker would have the ability to stream live
video from the in-built camera to this remote
expert and adjust her/ his course of actions

20

The field worker of the future


continued

according to the experts guidance and to the


particular circumstances. So, along with traditional tools like hammers and wrenches,
Google Glass could potentially become an essential piece of equipment for a field worker.
The advantages of such technology being
applied in the oil and gas industry are very
apparent. First, the devices ability to render
relevant information to the users in real time
will support tasks being executed faster, leading to reduced equipment downtimes, decreased operational risk and, ultimately, increased efficiency. Secondly, the devices
extensive communication abilities would ensure that field workers would never deal with
complex problems alone and would instead
be supported by a group of remote experts
who can assist with all global front-line operations. Furthermore, such use of wearable technology would decrease the manpower required at regional sites. Currently, the oil and
gas industry is faced with the risk that
knowledge may be lost given that many of the
workforce are of retiring age. However with
the use of Google Glass, this knowledge could
be captured and used to support new, less experience workers in the field.

New technology old problems


Several challenges remain to be overcome before the full value of wearable technology can
be realised by the energy industry. First, there
is still a major issue with battery life. Google

Currently, the oil and gas


industry is faced with
the risk that knowledge
may be lost given that many
of the workforce are of
retiring age.
Glass, for example, has a battery life of up to 30
minutes. With many field workers working
long shifts without access to electricity, reliance
on this technology is therefore likely to be impractical. Until the long-awaited successor to
the lithium-ion battery emerges, this problem
could be managed by field workers carrying
external power sources or using in-car or solar
power charging.

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Another challenge for almost any wearable


device is that it strongly depends on a bigger
brother, most typically a smartphone. Whether it is a smart watch, smart glasses or any
other wearable technology, these devices are
rendered near useless without being paired to
a smartphone, which provides the connectivity
requirements. Consequently, the worker would
have to possess an additional battery (or a
charger) for the smartphone. These issues do
not stop here. Not only is wearable technology
reliant on a smartphone, it is also dependent
on that smartphone being connected to a network that will allow large amounts of data to
be transferred in real time - an issue that is unlikely to be resolved in sparsely populated, oilrich regions such as Alaska.
The Glass is half full
In its Technology Vision 2014, Accenture outlined expectations that devices such as Google
Glass will help companies save $1 billion by
2017 by enabling field service technicians to
diagnose and fix problems more quickly and
without needing to bring additional experts to
remote sites.3 Indeed there is little doubt that
wearable devices will be the next big thing in

21

The field worker of the future


continued

the ever-evolving technology market. Moreover, in time, advancement of these technologies


will likely revolutionise the way in which the
energy field worker operates.
Some prototypes of such application are being built and tested in labs right now,4 but as it
has been mentioned earlier, several issues remain to be overcome before we see a global
roll-out of the wearable-device empowered
fieldworker. Nevertheless, this does not mean
that companies should wait until these technologies gain a global footprint before they
start to trial and implement this exciting new
technology. Quite the contrary energy companies, especially those with a large field force,
should drive the piloting of this technology in
their business, establish themselves as early
adopters, and ensure that they have the knowledge and experience to deploy these across all
global locations if and when this technology
has resolved some of its biggest hurdles.

Sources:

Rinat Maksutov
Rinat is a Consultant within Accenture Digital
based in Moscow, Russia. Rinat is part of the
mobility stream within Accenture Digital. His main
focus is on developing mobility strategies and
solutions for different clients across industries.

1. http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnnosta/2013/06/21/
google-glass-in-the-operating-room/
2. IT Key Metrics Data 2014: Key Industry Measures:
Energy Analysis: Multiyear
3. Accenture Technology Vision 2014
4. http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/02/14/first-video-ofgoogle-glass-application-for-oil-gas/

Article submitted by Rinat Maksutov

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22

Digitals role in plugging the


missing middle in upstream

ontinuing industry challenges, marked


by declining access opportunities across
the energy sector, are fundmentally altering the status quo of how International Oil
Companies (IOCs) operate in upstream.
Increased capital expenditure, for fewer bar-

rels, and at a higher risk, has led to a renewed


focus on value over volume. In practice, this
equates to enhanced ambitions for active portfolio management, stringent capital allocation
and efficient execution. For over 15 years, the
Digital Oil Field (DOF) has been thought to be

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the answer to optimising value from production in increasingly difficult climates.1 The
Digital Oil Field is a suite of complementary
technologies that combine data and knowledge
management, using enhanced analytical tools,
to develop more efficient process and make

23

Digitals role in plugging the missing middle in upstream


continued

timely decisions.2 However, for a number of


structural, cultural and technical reasons, the
DOF has failed to fully deliver on its promise.
To date, digital technologies have largely
been used on an ad-hoc basis in upstream oil
and gas operations, largely applied in silos at
the asset level. An integration gap between the
asset and executive levels is evident, with a
clear missing middle in capabilities.3 With
this gap, energy companies struggle for a complete and timely assessment of the impact of
operational decisions on segment performance.
Likewise, the segment is unable to factor in
day-to-day field operations in their objectives
setting, planning, and strategic resource allocation decisions.4
In order to deliver a strategy of value over
volume and generate greater return on capital
from their asset base, IOCs must make a transition from a digital oil field to a digital business.
A key requirement of this shift is the integration and digital enablement of end-to-end capabilities in strategic planning and performance management, above the asset level, thus
providing a common data flow and visibility to
operations through which strategy can be informed and delivered.

Changing dynamics in upstream higher


cost for fewer barrels
With changing industry and market pressures,
IOCs upstream operations are fundamentally
changing. Indeed, complexity has increased
with higher quality reserve opportunities becoming harder to capture, in large part following the rise of National Oil Companies (NOCs),
who now control 90% of the worlds reserves.5
In response, IOCs have shifted their focus to
frontier, unconventional and mature fields.
This portfolio shift has brought with it increas11
10

ExxonMobil

Chevron
Shell
BP
Total
ConocoPhillips
Eni
2009

2013

Figure 1: IOC Production decline


Source: Company data

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-12%

ing execution challenges and costs. In fact, reserves replacement cost is expected in 2014 to
have risen by almost 50% compared to 2011
levels and IOCs are struggling to maintain production volumes (see Figure 1). Furthermore,
CAPEX spending is increasing significantly.
Indeed CAPEX spending has risen by nearly
180% since 2000, whilst global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) increased by just
14%.6 This trend clearly indicates significant
diminishing returns.
The result has been declining return on average capital employed (ROACE) across the industry. Analysis shows that post-2010 ROACE
has fallen across IOCs from highs of 30% to
below 10% (see Figure 2). Furthermore, with
capital spending increasing as prices remain
stagnant, analysts are calling for capital constraint. Shell has been the latest example to
cave into pressure to rein-in spending following their recent profit warning and the news
that ROACE had more than halved to 9% last
year.7
Given this industry context, the growing response by IOCs has been a renewed focus on
value over volume, with increased active portfolio management, and a growing realisation

24

Digitals role in plugging the missing middle in upstream


continued

ROACE (%)

35,000 CAPEX ($mm)

28
26

30,444

24

30,000

22
20

25,000

23,605

18
16
14
12

20,000

17,627

14,794

15,000

10
8

10,000

6
4

5,000

2
0

0
2009

2010
Industry leader ROACE

2011

2012

Median CAPEX

Median ROACE

Figure 2: IOC Capital spend vs return


of the importance of strategic capital allocation
and plan delivery.
The missing middle
Planning, forecasting and performance management capabilities underpin the successful

Source: IHS Herold

delivery of value over volume. These capabilities help realise future potential value and
guide the proper strategic investment decisions
required to be successful in the long run, whilst
maintaining profitable operations today. However, current capabilities are inadequate. In

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many companies, a missing middle is evident


across multiple dimensions: between the data
available and disparate systems used; from the
lack of end-to-end integration across processes
or workflows; and between corporate strategies and analytics efforts at functional and departmental levels.8
Difficulties in the quality and integration of
data forms one of the largest challenges for oil
and gas companies planning and performance
management capabilities. Data ecosystems are
complex and littered with data silos, limiting
the value that organisations can get out of their
own data by making it difficult to access and interpret. Indeed, 63% of energy respondents cited
data integration as the greatest challenge relative to quality and their ability to analyse data.9
This gap in capabilities has resulted in planning and performance management processes
delivering:
Ineffective capital stewardship: planning
processes are not fully informed nor
linked to performance management and
therefore fail to deliver effective capital
stewardship
Short-term view: planning processes are
unintegrated and are limited in their

25

Digitals role in plugging the missing middle in upstream

Focus

continued

Strategic
prioritisation

Business Planning, Integration &


Resource Allocation

Digital integration

Strategic Planning

CAPEX

Activity Planning

Outcomes of
Field
Development
Plans

Activity
schedules and
Functional
Plans

Production and operational


data

Data input into strategy

Data supply
chain

Plan Execution &


Perf. Mgt.

Common Data Model

Figure 3: Digitally enabled integrated planning


ability to strike the appropriate balance
between short-term profitability and
long-term value creation in the context of
higher uncertainty
Lack of agility: planning processes are not

aligned to the relevant business environment and the key drivers of business value,
nor do they have the built in agility based
on multiple scenarios to enable course
corrections

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A digital plug for the missing middle


The upstream segments missing middle can
be plugged through integrating and digitally
enabling the entire planning and performance
management landscape. Success will be determined by an organisations ability to integrate
data across the entire upstream value chain,
perform rigorous analytics to generate and distribute insight across the whole business to
those who need it in real time.
The first step for energy companies is to
visualise an end-to-end approach to data and
create an integrated data supply chain,
which breaks down silos and enables data to
flow throughout the ecosystem for the benefit
of the whole organisation.10 For the upstream
segment, the data supply chain could start
with production and operational data generated at the asset level, combined with economic, planning and other relevant data
above the asset level, before feeding into Field
Development Plans (FDPs) and strategies at
the executive level. Too much data however
can do as much to paralyse decision making
as liberate it.11 Moreover, many major oil companies have no standard financial data structure, which has led to un-comparable data

26

Digitals role in plugging the missing middle in upstream


continued

Key Performance Metrics

Last Year
Production By Well

50000

WO-612

WG-522

40000

66%

30000

10%

Cost to Plan

Cost to Plan

BBL

Month

Month

20000

WG-590

WG-528
10000

82%
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Last Year
Year

Month

Week

Last 24 Hours

BOPD: 1.45M

BOPD: 12K

BOPD: 8K

BOPD: 8K

Delta: 95%

Delta: 95%

Delta: 95%

Dec

88%

Cost to Plan

Cost to Plan

Month

Month

Delta: 95%

Figure 4: Microsoft iLink Dashboard


between different regions and fields. Therefore, fundamental calculated decisions are required to determine the exact data requirements necessary to inform decision-making
from the asset to the segment level. These data

Source: Microsoft

requirements should then be mapped into a


common data model which sets standard parameters for capturing and reporting capital
and costs spend across the business. This, ultimately, enables properly informed decision-

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making across the business, by allowing for


clear monitoring and comparisons.
Once the data is collated, analytics can be
embedded into commercial and operational
processes across the upstream value chain. For
example, in planning processes, analytics
based on production and operational data,
combined with economic forecasts and risks,
could feed enhanced scenario modelling on
strategic resource allocation decisions at the
executive level. This mechanism allows the executive team to see multiple scenarios on how
changing CAPEX decisions in the portfolio
could impact long-term cash flows and production volumes. Decisions on FDPs can then
be fed back down through the business, with
analytics breaking them down into actionable,
appropriately resourced, and aligned activity
and operational plans at the asset level. Figure
3 depicts this optimised end-to-end integrated
planning process.
Several energy companies are already starting to implement capabilities to bridge the
missing middle. One of the major IOCs has
already started to develop a common data
model to provide one source of data to manage
the business. This will give the executive team

27

Digitals role in plugging the missing middle in upstream


continued

line of sight, through multiple lenses (time horizon, functional, cost etc.), to plan delivery
and business outcomes. This capability allows
the optimisation and integration of end-to-end
upstream commercial processes and links strategy captured in development plans to detailed
planning execution and performance management. The programme is expected to deliver
significant performance improvements (approximately 2% increase in ROACE) by enabling insight-driven decision-making and integrated, robust management and execution of
the plan. Another company based in Queensland Australia is in the process of installing
technologies (Enersight and WellSpring) to
model end-to-end physical flows of commodities, costs and cash flows in addition to performing full field economics and forecast production on both short term and life of field
basis.12 This capability will enable robust execution planning and production forecasting as
well as providing a simulation environment to
optimise strategic resource allocation decisions
in development plans.
Nevertheless, unless there is a timely and effective channel to communicate intelligence
back out to those who need it, the advantages

of analytics are reduced. Mobile and visualisation technologies are central to its success, given
how disparate energy workforces can be, and
how complex the relevant data is. Example
technologies include Microsofts iLink Up-

Mobile and visualisation


technologies are central to
its success, given how
disparate energy workforces
can be, and how complex
the relevant data is.
stream Oil and Gas framework application.
The app offers enterprises a 360-degree realtime mobile view of their entire operations,
empowering users to track performance metrics, make better decisions based on informative dashboards, and identify scope for resource
optimisation across business units (see Figure
4).13 Technologies such as this, linked to the data
supply chain, generate vast potential improve-

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ments in performance management capabilities


by enabling a real-time, mobile view, of plan attainment, from the field worker to the executive
team. Indeed, implementation has the potential
to significantly increase the pace and effectiveness of review cycles, work schedules and other
processes across the business
Finally, embedded analytics now have the
potential to capture the implicit knowledge of
many tasks performed in planning processes,
often based on experience held in an aging
workforce. Advances in artificial intelligence
and machine learning are making it possible to
automate many knowledge worker tasks, previously thought impossible. Sophisticated analytics tools can be used to augment the talents
of highly skilled employees, and as more
worker tasks can be done by machine, it is also
possible that some jobs could become fully automated.14 The backend capabilities required to
crunch the vast quantities of data, for multiple
requests in real time, is now also within reach
through the use of analytics platforms such as
SAP Hana (High Performance Analytic Appliance), an application that uses in-memory database technology that allows the processing of
huge amounts of real time data in a short time.15

28

Digitals role in plugging the missing middle in upstream


continued

The road ahead


Significant challenges remain to create a digital
plug for the missing middle. Cultural resistance
to change is the most significant hurdle and can
be explained by several factors. Firstly, many
executives are yet to progress to a long-term
value focus, as opposed to short-term profitability, and thus view digital technologies as
solely a way to generate business metrics, rather than as a mechanism for optimising the endto-end value chain. Secondly, the integration of
data is likely to prove challenging as it is typically stored in silos across the business with
varying functional owners, many of which operate independently. As such, both a technological and directional shift will have to occur
to ensure the business works collaboratively
within one common data supply chain. Finally,
a talent gap, exemplified by an aging population, is present in IOCs and is likely to cause
challenges for adoption and efficient operation
of digital technologies across the business.
Nevertheless, the benefits of overcoming
these challenges are immense. By digitally
plugging the missing middle between activity
and strategy, IOCs will be able to deliver value
over volume and increase ROACE through dy-

namic data driven decision-making across the


business. Looking to the future, exponential
value can be generated if these same concepts
are extended to integrated oil companies as a
whole, thus closing the gap between Upstream
operations and Refining and Marketing, and
ultimately creating an optimised end-to-end
digital energy business.
Article submitted by Myles Kirby

Sources:

1. Accenture, Digitizing Energy: Analytics-Powered


Performance, 2013

2. ibid

3. Accenture, 10 EQS Study, March 29th 2013

4. Accenture, Digitizing Energy: Analytics-Powered


Performance, 2013

5. The Economist, Supermajordammerung, Aug 3rd 2013

6. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013, 12th November

7. FT, Oil Groups Pressed to Restrain Spending, Jan 26th


8. Accenture, Digitizing Energy: Analytics-Powered
Performance, 2013
9. Accenture, Analytics Adoption Study, March 2013
10. Accenture, Technology Vision 2014, 2014

11. Offshore-Tehcnology.com, Making the most of the digital


oil field, 10th June
12. Accenture research

Myles Kirby
Myles is a Strategy Analyst based in London. His
most recent work has included defining the
high-level principles behind the upstream strategic
resource allocation and integrated business
planning process at one of the major IOCs.

13. Microsoft, Oil & Gas Business Intelligence Framework,


last accessed 13/02/14

14. McKinsey Global Institute, Disruptive technologies:


Advances that will transform life, business and the global
economy, May 2013
15. Accenture, Experience SAP HANA with Accenture and
SAP, 2012

Myles is part of the Editorial Team of Refined; he


previously authored an award-winning article on
Shale Gas and Chinese Energy Security published
in Refined 35.

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29

Turning data into oil


how to use advanced analytics
to increase production in
declining fields

he study of analytics - or the uncovering


of meaningful patterns in data - has created tremendous value for consumerfacing, digitally-focused businesses such as
Amazon and Google. Inside oil and gas com-

panies, visionary leaders with strong management teams are beginning to determine how to
leverage analytics in the context of asset-intensive business-to-business (B2B) industries.
Complexities in unconventional production

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and declining production in existing conventional fields, coupled with data proliferation
and decreasing data storage costs are leading
to an exploration of analytics, with the ultimate
goal of creating more shareholder value.

30

Turning data into oil - how to use advanced analytics to increase production in declining fields
continued

The case for analytics in oil and gas


production
Overall production is declining across existing fields
When markets demand stable cash flows as
much as growth, production forecasters and
managers in exploration and production (E&P)
companies have to stimulate declining wells
and improve forecasting for new wells. One
California-based upstream producer operating
in heavy oil fields is only producing half the
daily number of barrels today as it did two
decades ago. Other producers have seen similar production declines. This is causing E&P
companies to look at exploration and reservoir
modeling as they take the next step in the industrys technological revolution.
Unconventional production is difficult to
estimate
The boom in oil and gas production driven by
new technologies and fields has led some to
predict a golden age for E&P companies.
However the bubbly local realities in places
like North Dakota, Alberta or even the North
Sea dont reflect industry profits and stock val-

uations. Many E&P organisations are plagued


by unpredictable and rapidly declining well
production across their portfolios. Shell provides a compelling illustration of this. Indeed
its portfolio of assets was fundamentally re-

Many E&P organisations


are plagued by
unpredictable and rapidly
declining well production
across their portfolios.
valued when their incoming Chief Executive
Officer, Ben van Beurden, announced a move
away from pegging market expectations to unconventional production targets. As a result,
the International Oil Company (IOC) took a
write-down rather than try to operate a portfolio of unconventional wells with unpredictable
production estimates.1
At the heart of this issue is the uncertainty
that comes at the front edge of a technology

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revolution. Horizontal drilling technologies


and processes are relatively well established.
E&P companies are rapidly improving well
economics and focusing on capital efficiency
by re-shaping portfolios and industrializing
unconventional drilling and operations. But
relatively little is known about the production
behavior of shale, super-deep water and other
unconventional formations.2
New meets old how analytics is increasing
production
The last several years have led to a fundamental shift in technologies and organisational
capabilities that have enabled a range of high
value use cases for analytics in exploration
and production. Investments in areas such as
the Industrial Internet, automation, and
business data warehouses have made unprecedented amounts of data available to managers.3 Furthermore, analytics platforms essentially the engines where data is stored and
where complex data manipulation models are
created like SAP HANA (High Performance
Analytic Appliance), Apache Hadoop and
SAS are now widely available. Of course,
there are concerns, with some pointing to data

31

Turning data into oil - how to use advanced analytics to increase production in declining fields
continued

quality as a barrier to the successful use of


analytics. For example, data that is often redundant or obsolete can cause some managers to have trouble trusting analytic outputs.4
And yet, as we will show below, those willing
to take the plunge into advanced analytics are
starting to see results in the form of increased
oil production. In these cases, companies with
strong leadership who view analytics as a
strategic investment rather than an Information Technology (IT) investment are the ones
creating value from analytics.
As technologies and capabilities have caught
up to analytics use cases, we see oil and gas
companies driving hundreds of millions of
dollars of value from applying analytics to issues around well production. For example,
analytics enabled by equipment instrumentation currently allows a huge degree of precision in determining when a beam pump
should remain idle and when it should stroke
to squeeze fractions of a barrel of incremental
production. In another case, well operators receive near real-time alerts to their mobile
phones on potential maintenance issues allowing early interventions that reduce downtime.
With help from advanced analytics platforms,

companies are building the ability to correlate


key reservoir characteristics across entire
fields. Isolating the variables that contribute to
reservoir variability is allowing them to improve production models and target water in-

An analytics mindset
describes the ability for
managers deeply connected
to business issues to see
how they can get more
from their existing data.

jection stimulation across the reservoir, thus


leading to an increase in oil produced. One
company has estimated the incremental value
of this reservoir optimisation at close to $100
million annually. And this kind of return is
generating real excitement amongst oil and
gas executive teams.

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Success factors and the analytics mindset


Whilst many executive teams see the potential
for analytics to stabilise or increase production
and cash flows, the question rightly arises
whether analytics will be another technology
chimaera or provide a meaningful competitive
advantage for E&P companies. We see management leadership as key to the successful
use of analytics. In the first instance, the business needs to define the right questions for analytics to answer, for example how can we better understand pressure dynamics in
sub-surface wells to optimise production?
Then, visionary leaders should create partnerships across the entire organisation, involving
different business units and the IT function, to
agree on use cases and execute an analytics
strategy. This combination of vision, entrepreneurship and know-how demonstrates what
we see as a critical competency for the success
of analytics managers possessing an analytics mindset.5
An analytics mindset describes the ability
for managers deeply connected to business issues to see how they can get more from their
existing data. These managers dont need to
understand analytics technologies or method-

32

Turning data into oil - how to use advanced analytics to increase production in declining fields
continued

ologies in any real depth however, they do


need to have a vision for the value they can
drive by answering a new set of questions.
The key is to understand the data at hand and
the power of correlation in very large datasets. Prediction becomes easier and more accurate in a world where sampling may no
longer be necessary. Managers who grasp this
can begin to look at optimisation and prediction in new ways. Thus, instead of simply
stumbling into analytics, organisations that
intentionally build a cadre of managers with
an analytics mindset will gain real advantage
over the long run.
Once the business questions have been defined, managers should work with the IT function to shape a solution, including framing
variables and finding out whether relevant
data is already in-house. In terms of data that
enables production-related use cases, companies with strong Industrial Internet and automation capabilities are better positioned to
answer key questions related to production.
Monitoring the drilling site or the well head in
near-real time will enable a range of use cases.
Managers must also ensure that their vision
and key questions drive IT investments related

to analytics. In oil and gas, IT departments are


not necessarily familiar with the technologies
that enable analytics use cases. In some cases,
major investments might be needed; in other
cases no new technology will be needed to en-

data scientists to successfully execute analytics, nor should data scientists be expected to
act as champions for analytics within a specific
organisation. The best approach is likely to be
partnering deep analytics experts with experienced managers who are close to the business.

Prediction becomes
easier and more accurate
in a world where
sampling may no longer
be necessary.

What happens when increasing production


simply means asking the right question?
E&P companies face classic management challenges in generating real value out of analytics. To achieve a focused outcome, four key
factors need to be in place. First, a visionary
leadership that sees analytics as a strategic
play is required to generate the necessary momentum to build the business case for analytics. Once this vision is established, the management team should be mobilised to create
use cases that address real business issues
thus developing the analytics mindset within
the organisation. Third, business functions,
together with IT, need to communicate closely
to ensure the right mix of technology capabilities exist to take full advantage of modern advanced analytics platforms. Finally, managers
who understand the business challenges
should partner with deeply skilled data scien-

able valuable analytics use cases - this hinges


closely on the maturity of the organisations
existing data collection and storage. Overall,
managers should engage IT departments in
up-front conversations about total cost of ownership and ensure that use cases are thoroughly understood before technology investments
are made.
Once the appropriate technology and data
are in place, managers are not required to be

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33

Turning data into oil - how to use advanced analytics to increase production in declining fields
continued

tists who know how to execute advanced analytics models. When it comes to the challenges
E&P companies face around industrialising
production and better defining reservoirs,
there is no doubt that analytics will provide
real competitive advantage to those who find
the right approach.
Article submitted by
Lance Dexter and David Morse

Lance Dexter

David Morse

Lance Dexter is a Strategy Manager based in


Vancouver, Canada. He has advised mining and oil
and gas clients on a range of operational and
strategic issues including operating models,
business transformation, and joint ventures and
alliances.

Dave Morse is a Strategy Manager aligned to


Accentures Energy Practice, and based in San
Francisco. His client work has focused on business
transformation, operating model and technology
innovation projects for super-majors and unconventional E&P companies.

In the energy space, Lance is particularly interested in the role innovation can play in transforming a traditional industry.

Daves previous Accenture research and publications have focused on innovation in alternative
transportation fuels and super-major operating
models.

Sources:

1. Financial Times, Shell writedown is bad news for US shale. Guy Chazan, August 1, 2013
2. Accenture, Digitizing Energy: Analytics-Powered Performance Opportunities for oil and gas companies to
improve business outcomes (2013)
3. See glossary for definition of Industrial Internet
4. The Economist A Different Game, February 2010. Available here: http://www.economist.com/node/15557465
5. This is based on work by Viktor Mayer-Schonberg and Kenneth Cukier in their book Big Data: A Revolution That
Will Transform How We Live, Work and Think (2013)

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34

Opportunities
for advanced
analytics in
shale gas
production
S

hale gas is changing the worlds energy


landscape. In a reversal of fortunes unforeseen just five years ago, the US is
now progressing rapidly towards self-sufficiency in hydrocarbons. International Energy
Agency (IEA) projections show that the US is

set to becoming the worlds largest gas producer by 2015 and the largest oil producer by
2017, becoming almost entirely self-sufficient
in energy by 2035.1 Already, shale oil and gas
accounts for almost 50% of US oil and gas production, set to increase to 65% by 2030.2

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However, despite this success story, shale


gas is not without its challenges. Shale gas has
large infrastructure costs. Typically, 200 to 250
wells are required to produce one trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas,3 and each well can cost in
the region of $0.3 to $20 million to drill.4 Shale

35

Opportunities for advanced analytics in shale gas production


continued

gas resource developers also have significant


expenditure on contingent labour and services. This labour presents a challenge to manage
efficiently, particularly since well labour demand is high for short periods only, with a
range of providers and types of labour required at different points in the operations.5
Moreover, water is needed in large quantities
at specific times during the shale gas extraction process particularly during fracking. In
total, approximately five million gallons of
water are required per well and making sure
these quantities of water are available on site
requires approximately 1,000 truck movements.6
In addition, the shale gas production process poses some significant environmental
risks, including the risk of water contamination. Solid waste and methane gas emissions
from wells can also present an environmental
hazard. Shale gas operations can also trigger
increased seismicity, and fractures may propagate (though the risk of propagation reaching aquifers is unlikely if shale gas extraction
takes place at a suitable depth). Finally, in rare
circumstances, wells may leak gas into surrounding rock formations or as blowout onto

the surface.7 These environmental concerns


have resulted in strong local opposition to the
development of wells in some locations and
jurisdictions.

Large volumes of data on


pressure, temperature and
the speed at which the drill
breaks the rock are
generated throughout these
processes and this data
lends itself to
measurement and analysis
of various metrics.
Analytics has been defined in different ways
in a nutshell, it describes the extensive use
of data, statistical and quantitative analysis,
explanatory and predictive models, and fact-

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based management to drive decisions and actions.8 Analytics can be descriptive (What
happened?), diagnostic (Why did it happen?), or more advanced, such as predictive
(What will happen?) or prescriptive (What
should happen?).9 Advanced analytics presents a significant opportunity to mitigate
these risks and reduce costs in shale gas production. In practice, with the large number of
wells required in a shale gas field, there is a
series of similar and repeatable processes in
well drilling and production comparable to
manufacturing. Large volumes of data on
pressure, temperature and the speed at which
the drill breaks the rock are generated throughout these processes and this data lends itself
to measurement and analysis of various metrics. For example, a comparison can be made
between different wells to identify cost saving
measures to demonstrate how to realise the
same outcome with fewer inputs.
Advanced analytics can also bring about efficiencies to wider shale gas operations.
Through recording, analysing and controlling
the transportation of water and other inputs
to the well, guesswork is taken out of shale
gas logistics. Global Positioning System (GPS)

36

Opportunities for advanced analytics in shale gas production


continued

sensors can enable routes to be analysed and


revised to avoid congestion. Costs can be further reduced through efficient usage of each
truck, and monitors can report on water levels
in the truck. More efficient water usage is particularly important in developing shale gas
where water supplies are scarce and in many
parts of the world with significant shale gas
reserves, water is limited. Precise logistics optimisation will be critical if shale gas development under existing technology is to be successful in countries such as China.10
A similar approach can bring about efficiencies related to labour costs. Advanced analytics can consider the optimal level of labour
required for a schedule of tasks. The performance and safety of personnel should be integrated into the solution; for example monitors
can be used to detect personnel position on
site (and importantly, if someone has fallen).
Escaped gas can also be detected through digital monitoring and appropriate action taken
to ensure the safety of resources.
Monitoring and planning as part of advanced analytics can also be used to mitigate
environmental risks. Even before a site is chosen, analytics can provide insight into sites

which are both suitable for extraction of shale


gas and with the least likelihood of delay
caused by local opposition. Logistics optimisation should result in reduced impact of
trucks carrying water and other inputs to the

The performance and


safety of personnel should
be integrated into the
solution; for example
monitors can be used to
detect personnel position
on site (and importantly, if
someone has fallen).
well head. Fewer inputs not only save on cost,
but also on environmental footprint. As well
as improving safety, monitoring for escaped
gas serves to reduce the impact of the well.
Advanced analytics should assist with early

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issue detection of other potential issues, for


example through measurement of seismicity
and water pollution.
Advanced analytics methods can be used
not only to bring about cost and environmental savings but also to improve well productivity. Geo-steering relies on real-time data
from the drilling rig to direct the drill accurately towards the area of the rock formation
in which the oil or gas is trapped. Through the
use of data from the drill, as well as geological
information, the drill can be steered from
down to horizontal, precisely towards the target.11 With improved data of this kind, geosteering can result in increased hydrocarbons
per dollar a particularly interesting value
proposition for shale gas production which
relies heavily on horizontal drilling.
The exact impact of advanced analytics on
the shale gas industry is yet to be fully determined. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that
the first operators to start analysing the available data and act to reduce costs and increase
production will be placed at a significant competitive advantage and deliver a greater return on investment. The long-term success of
shale gas is likely to depend heavily upon the

37

Opportunities for advanced analytics in shale gas production


continued

use of advanced analytics and the impact


will be particularly marked if analytics can
help reduce the risks of negative impacts on
the environment.
Article submitted by Toby Lomax

Toby Lomax
Toby is a Resources Technology Consultant based
in London. He has over five years experience
working with oil and gas clients on SAP implementation.
Toby is an active member of the UKI Energy Book
Club.

Sources:

1. IEA, Reuters, FT
2. EIA (US Energy Information Administration), The
Economist, Accenture Analysis
3. Accenture Analysis
4. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/usshalegas/
pdf/usshaleplays.pdf
5. Digital Unconventional offering pack v1 2
6. Accenture presentation - Water and shale gasMiddle East
7. Shale gas extraction in the UK: a review of hydraulic fracturing (royalsociety.org/policy/projects/
shale-gas-extraction)
8. Davenport & Harris, Competing on Analytics: The
New Science of Winning, 2007
9. Kart, Linden, & Schulte, Extend Your Portfolio of
Analytics Capabilities, 2013
10. Accenture, Water and Shale Gas Development,
2012
11. News release Accenture and MIT to Use
Analytics to Help Shell Improve Cost-Effectiveness
and Productivity of Unconventional Drilling
Operations

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38

Fuel retailing and the digital consumer

n almost all Organisation for Economic


Cooperation and Development (OECD)
markets, demand for petrol and diesel is in
decline as the industry adjusts to new legislation and more efficient engine technologies
come onto the market. This already challenging
market context is further compounded by the

continued and aggressive push into fuel retailing by the leading hypermarkets. Indeed, massive discounts on fuel have become the norm
and are used as a loss-leader to drive footfall
into supermarket stores. Unfortunately, the traditional fuel retail offer from the International
Oil Companies (IOCs) has, for the most part,

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seen little revolution - or even evolution - over


the last ten years and there has been minimal
investment in the forecourt.
There is, however, light at the end of this rather gloomy tunnel. The emergence of the digital
consumer presents perhaps the biggest opportunity - and equally, potentially the greatest

39

Fuel retailing and the digital consumer


continued

threat - to the future of fuel retailing. Today we


have an entire generation which has grown up
in a digital world and the so-called digital native is now more prevalent than ever before.
These digital natives interact with brands and
organisations in fundamentally different ways
and through multiple digital channels. They are
tech-savy and on-the-go consumers who like
and tweet about the experiences they have with
products and services. And organisations that
have embraced this digital consumer and have
created more meaningful and relevant customer
experiences have experienced step changes in
their performance. The dilemma faced by many
of our energy clients is to what extent should
they embrace this digital consumer?
Top-line performance for a fuel retailer is
driven by the frequency with which a customer
visits their retail site, and by the amount they
purchase during their visit. Therefore getting a
consumer to visit more often and spend more
than they normally do is nirvana for any fuel
retail manager - and the digital consumer presents the most significant opportunity in a generation to achieve this.
Oil companies have a wealth of customer
data at their fingertips. This typically includes

customer loyalty data gained from loyalty


cards, point of sales transaction data, credit
card data and for some progressive companies,
data gathered from social listening (social media monitoring). All of this data presents a

Today we have an entire


generation which has
grown up in a digital world
and the so-called digital
native is now more
prevalent than ever before.

huge opportunity for oil companies to get really smart about their consumers. Indeed, by
consolidating this data into a single view of
each customer and running sophisticated analytics on it, oil companies can develop unparalleled insights into an individual consumers
buying behaviour enough to get any market-

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ing team excited. Offers that previously were


made as one-to-many with limited impact and
the risk of cannibalisation can now be made on
a one-to-one basis with a fact-based understanding of how the offer will drive visit frequency, basket size - or in some instances both.
But this is only part of the equation. Digital
technologies now present fundamentally new
channels to target consumers. Oil companies
are increasingly exploring how mobile payment can be introduced into the forecourt so
its not difficult to see how this thinking can be
extended to use mobile as a channel to target
consumers with relevant offers. The connected
car presents another channel and new control
point that can be exploited. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) such as BMW
and Toyota have cars in the market today that
are connected to the internet and offer consumers very different experiences. Oil companies
which can tie into the connected car with a
killer dashboard app that targets consumers
with real-time location-based (and relevant) offers will destroy the competition.
The exciting thing is that this is happening
now. What is even more exciting is that we, Accenture, are at the very heart of many of these

40

Fuel retailing and the digital consumer


continued

discussions with our clients. Through Accenture Interactive (AI) we have a wealth of capability, tools and assets that we are bringing to
our energy clients to help integrate current and
future sources of data, draw insight from analytics to develop targeted offers, and execute
these offers through new digital channels. Our
capability is end-to-end in that we are one of
the only organisations in the world that can deliver on both the technical and creative sides of
new fuel retailing customer experiences.
The dilemma for our energy clients now is to
what extent they should embrace the digital
consumer. Clearly, to get this right will require
investment; and investment in downstream
has been a low priority across many of our oil
and gas clients for many years. Nevertheless,
the oil company that gets this right has the potential to create a step change in customer loyalty ultimately driving higher sales and revenue. For this to happen, these companies have
to act now.

Rich Kho
Rich Kho is a Resources Strategy Senior Manager
based in London. He has worked with clients across
the energy value chain with a focus on business and
operating model transformation.
His current interests and focus on the BP account
are on digital marketing and the digital consumer,
and specifically the impact on BPs fuel business
and operating model.
As a past Editor-in-Chief of Refined, Rich sits on the
Refined Editorial Board and is a Refined alumni.

Article submitted by Rich Kho

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41

Book Review:

Untapped The Scramble


For Africas Oil
by John Ghazvinian

n Untapped The Scramble for Africas Oil,


John Ghazvinian takes off on a whirlwind
journey and adventure - around the oilproducing regions of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Throughout the book, he attempts to answer
what the future of oil will bring to Africa, and
whether it will constitute a blessing or a curse
for this continent. Beginning in Nigeria,

Ghazvinian then turns to uncover what the


state of affairs is across the rest of the continent.
The book has a less academic tone than other
books on the subject, and Ghazvinian embeds
himself into the realities of each local situation
in a voyage that takes him to some of the most
dangerous places on earth - including the Niger
Delta, Cabinda, and South Sudan.

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Starting the book at the World Petroleum


Conference in South Africa, Ghazvinian hits on
many of the themes he continues to build on
throughout the story: the move from the traditional oil-producing countries in Sub-Saharan
Africa to other areas in the region and to offshore exploration; the challenges associated
with Africas unpredictable contractual envi-

42

Book Review: Untapped - The Scramble for Africas Oil by John Ghazvinian
continued

ronment; the small portion of total investment


that is ploughed into local content; and the increasing tensions between the traditional Western powers and rising Asian countries in their
activities on the continent.
Starting in Lagos, Ghazvinian promptly begins making his way to the Niger Delta travelling over land (against the advice of locals).
During this time, he visits villages along the
Delta, speaking with locals and warlords seeking to understand the impact that the oil industry has had on the region. He recounts how
sophisticated Exploration and Production
(E&P) technology has allowed oil companies to
extract huge profits from the swamp; yet this is
taking place against the backdrop of people
living in stone age-like conditions. While the
Delta region is where most of Nigerias oil has
come from, its people have seen little benefits,
with 70% of the population still living on less
than one dollar a day. This has been a leading
cause of industrialised oil theft amounting to
over 200,000 barrels per day, with various actors involved - from politicians to local tribes.
Following his foray into the Delta, Ghazvinian
heads back to Lagos to meet Chris Finlayson,
the CEO of Shell Nigeria. The oil executive

stresses that Shell can help fund some development and attempt to influence the direction of
the country; however, it must be careful not the
tread toes with a sovereign nation.

While the Delta region is


where most of Nigerias oil
has come from, its people
have seen little benefits,
with 70% of the population
still living on less than one
dollar a day.

Ghazvinian then turns to look at the rest of


the continent. He makes the case that oil still
remains a curse for many economies, even with
deepwater production. Gabon is cited as a
prime example of the resource curse (or
Dutch Disease) that has afflicted many oil-

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rich countries across Africa. On the surface, the


capital Libreville is reminiscent of the French
Riviera. However, the Gabonese economy has
become entirely centered on oil, side-stepping
vital parts of the economy, such as agriculture.
The majority of the government budget comes
from economic rents as opposed to taxes as a
result, this divorces the government from the
need to manage the effectiveness of the economy. The government has little incentive to prepare the economy for the aprs petrole (post petrol) era. Ghazvinian continues to investigate
this rentier mentality as he travels to Congo
and finds that only 2% of the arable land in the
country is used as people are all seeking jobs in
the oil sector. Congo also marks the authors
first use of the term oil field trash, a blunt
term denoting the disparity between the behaviors of expats and locals. In many ways, his
descriptions of this gulf reminded me of my
own experience of working in Africa.
As he moves along the coast, the authors
next stop is in Angola, where a multi-decade
civil war came to an end in 2002. Angola has
since experienced a huge economic boom
fueled by a huge growth in offshore oil production. However, as Ghazvinian points out, while

43

Book Review: Untapped - The Scramble for Africas Oil by John Ghazvinian
continued

Luanda is one of the most expensive cities in


the world, almost all the wealth resides in 100
families and over two thirds of the population
still lives in extreme poverty. Of course, no discussion on Angola can end without bringing
up Cabinda - the enclave situated between the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the
Republic of the Congo a region that homes
2% of Angolas population but produces 60%
of its oil.
Travelling across Equatorial Guinea, Ghazvinian discusses how oil has turned some of
the smaller African states into instant emirates.
He reviews the countrys bloodied history of
coups, and his experience at an authentic oilfield barbecue. 15 years ago, no one cared
about this tiny country owning only one hotel
- in stark contrast to today, where it is touted as
the Kuwait of the Tropics and is run by a kleptocracy. His foray into this small island nation
comes to a screeching halt as he gets caught
without press credentials and is kicked out of
the country.
Moving away from the Gulf of Guinea,
Ghazvinian arrives in Chad, which was once
touted as a model for sustainable oil development in Africa through its cooperation with the

World Bank. However, our intrepid author


quickly discovers the inconsistencies inherent
to this country. He also begins a frank discussion on the importance of Africa to Chinas fu-

Travelling across
Equatorial Guinea,
Ghazvinian discusses how
oil has turned some of the
smaller African states into
instant emirates.
ture. His perspective is that much of Chinas
aid to Africa comes in the form of cash payments that have few strings attached. This is
more favorable to local governments than the
aid that comes from Western countries because
it places few restrictions on the government.
Chinese oil companies are state-owned and
thus dont have to answer to shareholders and

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thus have the ability to wait out the problems


such as instability. The major question here is
whether this sort of checkbook diplomacy is
sustainable and what it will mean for the average citizen. The book ends by noting that Africa
oil and gas development still has a long way to
go and leaves the reader with the question is
there a happy medium for sustainable development in Africa?
Overall I found the book to be an enthralling
and informative read which complemented
well my experiences of oil and gas in Africa.
Everything from the barbecues of the oil field
trash, the street hawkers, and the huge disparities between rich and poor was spot on. I only
wish I could have read this book prior to starting my own adventure of working in Africa!
While the book does a good job describing
many of the situations I experienced, I still
wouldnt trade in my first-hand experience.
While reading the book was a great complement to the experience, I would strongly urge
anyone interested in the global energy industry to experience these realities firsthand.
This book also sparked a wide-ranging debate amongst the London energy book club
group. Readers liked that the author set him-

44

Book Review: Untapped - The Scramble for Africas Oil by John Ghazvinian
continued

self apart from others by choosing to get down


in the weeds of the issue. His travel experiences were interesting, and on occasion even
put him at significant risk. Ghazvinian is not
afraid to voice his opinion and take a side on
issues. This allowed readers to see history
through a different lens and develop a more
comprehensive understanding of situations
that had been touched on in Private Empire and
The Quest. Overall, I highly recommend reading Untapped. It is as relevant as ever today, especially given the increased interest in East
Africa, and exploration taking place in new regions with no historical oil and gas activity.

Michael Stratton
Michael is an Analyst based in North America. He
joined Accenture after as a Field Engineer for
Schlumberger.
Whilst working for Schlumberger, he had the
opportunity to work on a wide array of projects
spanning wildcat exploration, appraisal, to field
development. He also worked on projects in the
shallow water offshore environment as well as the
deepwater environment.

Review submitted by Michael Stratton

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45

Energy Industry Quarterly Results:


Q4 2013 Overview and Trends

Results Summary
The supermajors continued to struggle in Q4
2013 as increased Exploration & Development
costs, stagnating oil prices and weak refining
margins again ushered in disappointing results across the board
The big five IOCs all reported Y-o-Y losses
for Q4. Shell grabbed the headlines, releasing
their first profit warning since 2004 as earnings
slumped 70% for the second quarter in a year.

The story for the full year was no different as


annual earnings were universally down on
2012s results Shell again posting the biggest
drop at 38%.
Production Output Decline
The majors again saw falling production during Q4, with BPs output falling 1.9% to 2.25
million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the

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period, while Chevrons slumped 3.4% to 2.58.


The story was the same for the full annual results and can be attributed not only to the increasing difficulty in getting oil out of the
ground but also to major disruptions across the
globe such as oil theft in Nigeria (Shell, Total),
political issues in Egypt (BG), shutdowns at
Kashagan (Shell, Total, BG, BP, Statoil) and
various project overruns globally.

46

Energy Industry Quarterly Results: Q4 2013 Overview and Trends


continued

sults for the majors. Total said weakened demand in Europe made it a particularly difficult
quarter for refineries in the region and the recently announced capacity cuts at Stanlow, the
UKs second largest refinery, are testament to
that phenomenon.

Replacement Cost Profit ($ billions)


$12
$10
$8
$6
$4

Oil Price ($)


Q4

130
120
110
100
90
80

BP

Shell

Exxon

Chevron

Total

Project Prices Soar


In a global market where it is increasingly difficult to extract value at any stage of the value
chain, IOCs have often turned to superprojects in a bid to ultimately boost their bottom
lines. However, spiralling costs and project
overruns have meant just the opposite. This is
no better exemplified than at Chevrons Gorgon
LNG project, where forecast costs rose from
$37 to $54 billion in Q4.
Marginal Gains?
Continuing a trend regularly seen in recent
years, refining margins were hit by low oil
prices and precipitated poor downstream re-

Steady Road Ahead


Despite a late uptick in the oil price during Q4,
the Brent average was 78 cents lower than it was
for the last three months of 2012. Looking at the
year as a whole, the Brent price was more or less
stable, down just 0.3% and a recent study from
Shells Scenarios team suggested that this is the
way of things to come. The study concluded
that oil prices would likely remain steady for
the next two decades slowly increasing during
tight market scenarios but potentially dipping
to $70 a barrel in times of volatility.

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WTI Spot Price

13

13

tOc

Ju

l-

13

13

rAp

12
t-

Ja
n-

12

Oc

lJu

r-

12

12

Ap

11
t-

11
l-

Ja
n-

Poor results, falling output and stagnant oil


prices are forcing the supermajors to reassess
portfolios and priorities, with the emphasis
firmly on consolidation and capital efficiency.

Oc

4Q 2013

11

3Q 2013

r-

2Q 2013

Ju

1Q 2013

60

11

4Q 2012

70

Ap

$-

Macro Trends

Ja
n-

$2

Brent Spot Price

Exploration Budgets Slashed


In the wake of what some are calling the worst
year for exploration in two decades, with high
profile failures in areas such as the West Coast
of Africa and massive asset write-offs being
made by companies such as Tullow Oil, exploration budgets are set to be slashed in 2014.
With companies being pushed out to more
complex and more remote exploration frontiers all the time, costs are rising without always achieving the desired results. Industry
insiders suggest that campaigns will now likely focus more on established provinces such as
the GoM and Brazil rather than the more risky

47

Energy Industry Quarterly Results: Q4 2013 Overview and Trends


continued

areas such as the Arctic or Africa. IOCs, with


the largest asset bases, are suffering the most
and may continue to steer away from pursuing elusive conventional oil fields in favor of
natural gas which would, in turn, impact oil
prices.
Capital Efficiency Key
With shareholders clamouring for improved
results and a better ROI, the focus for the supermajors has moved to capital efficiency and

getting the most out of their assets. Shells new


CEO Ben Van Beurden, in particular, has identified capital efficiency as a key tenet to the
companys strategy during his tenure.
Consequently the industry can expect to witness busy market activity, with supermajor asset divestment being the key theme. Shell has
already initiated sales in Australia, Nigeria
and the North Sea; shifting their core focus to
the GoM, Middle East and Brazil.

IOCs

bp

Despite the groups divestment programme, BPs Q4 and full year results were hit by weaker refining margins, high
depreciation and exploration write-offs
Earnings/ Profit: Full-year underlying replacement cost profit was down by 22% to $13.4 billion for 2013, compared with $17.1
billion for 2012
Earnings narrative: The reported post-tax result of $2.8 billion for the quarter was down 27% when compared to the last quarter.
Production: Total reported production of oil and gas for 4Q 2013, including Russia, was 3.23 mboe/d
Downstream Sales: Total sales volumes of refined products was 5.5 mboe/d, a decrease of 3% compared to Q3
Analyst commentary: Lucas Hermann of Deutsche Bank In the upstream division, numbers were around $200m shy of our
expectations at $3.9bn. The company forecasts a production decline in 2014.
Share price impact: The quarterly update did not affect the share price much, being 0.1% higher in London trading on
05/02/2014

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48

Energy Industry Quarterly Results: Q4 2013 Overview and Trends


continued

IOCs

Chevron

Chevron reports net income of $4.9 billion in Q4 and $21.4 billion for the full year
Earnings/Profit: Net income was down 31.9% Y-o-Y.
Earnings narrative: Q4 saw a Y-o-Y decline in output and Chevron will not meet its full-year output target of 2.65 mboe/d, as
announced in March 2013. Despite this, Chevron has maintained an industry-leading position in upstream earnings per barrel
for the past four years.
Production: Chevron produced 2.56 mboe/d during October and November. This is 4% lower than the full-quarter average of
2.67 mboe/d from the year-earlier period.
Downstream Sales: 20% decrease in U.S. downstream operations of $265m in Q4 2013 vs $331m in Q4 2012.
Analyst commentary: Chevron really struggled on production last year but it looks like theyre going to turn that around in
2014, Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis who rates Chevron shares a buy.
Share price impact: Chevron is expected to report a per share profit of $2.87.

ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil saw lower-than-expected quarterly profit due to continually declining production coupled with heavy spending
to find fresh reserves.
Earnings/Profit: Net income was down 16% Y-o-Y.
Earnings narrative: The main reasons behind Exxons drop in fourth-quarter profits are lower oil prices and continued weak
refining margins. The effects of missed opportunities in shale investment and declining natural gas production are likewise making themselves felt.
Production: Exxons total oil and natural gas production fell 1.8% from the year-ago period to 4.2 mboe/d. As a result, quarterly
earnings decreased $976 million, while year-end earnings dropped $3 billion
Sales: Refinery throughput averaged 4.5 mboe/d, down 8%. Downstream earnings increased $324 million from the previous
quarter but were down $852 million from the past year. Chemical earnings dropped $48 million Y-o-Y and $115 million from Q3.
Analyst commentary: Theyve lost momentum already, reverting back to declining production and stagnant earnings. Brian
Youngberg, Edward Jones.
Share price impact: Earnings per share decreased 24% to $7.37.

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49

Energy Industry Quarterly Results: Q4 2013 Overview and Trends


continued

IOCs

Shell

Shell reports fourth quarter earnings of $2.2 Billion and 2013 Earnings of $16.7 Billion down 70%, due to low shale gas
prices, problems in Nigeria and overcapacity in Asian refining
Earnings / Profit: Net income was down 70% Y-o-Y.
Earnings narrative: Shells 4Q, and full year results were particularly poor with the company raising its first profit warning for
10 years due to major issues with overcapacity in European and Asian refining and continued production issues in Nigeria.
Despite the large earnings miss investors maintained Shells strong share price due in part to a dividend increase and a strategy
based around long-term capital efficiency.
Production: Q4 global upstream produced 1.54 mboe/d in the Q4 2013, down from 1.64 mboe/d in Q4 2012.
Downstream Sales: 5% decrease in downstream sales from 6.4 mboe/d to 6.0 mboe/d.
Analyst commentary: Shells reduced spend and capital efficiency is encouraging for investors, as they start to focus on Returnon-Capital Oswald Clint, Sanford C. Bernstein.
Share Price Impact: Shells share price remained stable at 21.24 at the close.

Total

The group reported 2013 adjusted net income of 14.3 bn, a slight decrease from 2012 with both Upstream and
Downstream remaining stable .
Earnings / Profit: Adjusted net operating income was $15.8 billion compared to $17.2 billion in 2012, a decrease of 8%.
Earnings narrative: Lower income was due to poor results from the Upstream segment and, to a lesser extent, from the Refining
& Chemicals and Marketing & Services segments.
Production: Total hydrocarbon production was stable at 2.3 mboe/d in 2012.
Downstream Sales: Total refined product sales were up 3% to 1.8 mboe/d.
Analyst commentary: TOTAL is expected to take advantage of the increased demand for natural gas by leveraging existing assets
and adding more to its portfolio. Recently TOTAL acquired more offshore exploration permits and also increased its quarterly
dividend to 0.61/share. We expect a higher dividend once recent investments begin to pay-off. (Zacks, Rank #4, Sell).
Share Price Impact: The share price traded to $60.57 at market open in NYSE on the day of the announcement.

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50

Energy Industry Quarterly Results: Q4 2013 Overview and Trends


continued

Independents

BG Group

Conoco
Phillips

BG Group reports fourth quarter revenue and other operating income up 14% to $5.43 billion
Earnings / Profit: Net income was up 11% Y-o-Y
Earnings narrative: The results for the quarter included a $1.29 billion post-tax impairment of certain assets in Egypt and a
$1.11 billion post-tax impairment of certain assets associated with the shale gas business in the USA.
Production: Production volumes decreased by 1% primarily as a result of the effects of reservoir decline in Egypt and lower
activity in the USA.
Downstream Sales: LNG Shipping & Marketing total operating profit increased 18% to $778 million in 4Q
Analyst commentary: Spot LNG prices strengthened during the quarter, which may have had a modest impact on LNG earnings. With first gas landed on Curtis Island (Australia), BG has delivered all major milestones set for 2013 Morgan Stanley
analysts.
Share price impact: Shares increased 1.6%, however, the stock price has yet to regain the level it traded at before the first output
downgrade knocked a fifth off its value in one day last October.
ConocoPhillips outshone larger competitors with a quarterly profit that beat expectations as it moved to overcome the
problems of high costs and lack of fresh reserves
Earnings/ Profit:Net income of $2.5 billion was up from $1.4 billion a year earlier
Earnings narrative: Q4 adjusted earnings were essentially flat Y-o-Y, primarily due to lower realized prices, lower volumes and
higher depreciation and operating costs associated with new production, offset by lower overall taxes.
Production: Production from continuing operations for Q4 was 1.5 mboe/d, a decrease of 93 mboe/d compared with Q4 2012.
Analyst commentary: In a note to clients, Ed Westlake of Credit Suisse dubbed Conoco the best performing large oil company,
citing 7% growth in cash flow despite asset sales, a reduced share count and more cash on the balance sheet.
Share price impact: The shares fell 0.1% to $65.75 at the close in New York. The stock is down 6.9% this year

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Energy Industry Quarterly Results: Q4 2013 Overview and Trends


continued

Independents

Occidental

Talisman

Occidental reports fourth quarter net income of $1.6 billion and 2013 Earnings of $5.9 billion
Earnings / Profit: Net income was up 389% Y-o-Y.
Earnings narrative: Occidentals huge Y-o-Y profit rise can largely be attributed to one-off items, such as the part sale of an
investment in General Partner of Plains All American Pipeline, L.P, rather than an improved performance. Both upstream and
chemicals income figures were down while Midstream, Marketing and Other earnings were marginally up.
Production: For Q4 of 2013, daily oil and gas production volumes averaged 0.75 mboe/d, compared with 0.78 mboe/d in Q4
of 2012.
Downstream Sales: 2% decrease in net sales volumes per day 0.77 mboe/d in Q4 2013 vs 0.78 mboe/d in Q4 2012.
Analyst commentary: Occidental sold more than it produced, said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov. It took volumes out of inventory, and thats why it beat estimates.
Share price impact: Occidental dropped 0.6% to $87.82 in New York (29th Jan).
Talisman Energy reports unexpected billion-dollar loss in fourth quarter due to decreased production, along with lower
liquids price realizations
Earnings/ Profit:A net loss of $1 billion compared to a net profit of $376 million in Q4.
Earnings narrative: Loss reflective the reduced value of its North Sea operations, which have been a long-running headache
for the Calgary-based oil and gas producer.
Production: Total hydrocarbon production was down 1.3% to 0.39 mboe/d.
Analyst commentary: Talisman Energy posted an unexpected US$1-billion net loss in the fourth quarter, reflecting the reduced value of its North Sea operations (THE CANADIAN PRESS).
Share price impact: The share price increased 2% to CAD11.72 at market close in Toronto Stock Exchange on the day of the
announcement.

Article submitted by Simon Turner and Rue Howland-Jackson

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52

Glossary
term

Definition

Digital (adj.)

The increasing information intensity and connectedness of business resources.

Digitise (verb)

Applying technology to make resources digital (a mobile sales force in an example of incremental digital improvement).

Digitalise (verb)

The process for turning digitised resources into new sources of revenue, growth and operational results that generate a premium to a
business.

Digital Business

An organisation that incorporates digital technology into their business to create revenue and results via innovative strategies, products,
processes and experiences.

Analytics

Simply put, Analytics is using data to drive business actions.


Analytics can be:
Descriptive (What happened?)
Diagnostic (Why did it happen?)
Predictive (What will happen?)
Prescriptive (What should happen?)

Big Data

Big Data describes the exponential growth, availability and use of information, which is diverse in type and not necessarily structured.

Drones

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or drones - are aircrafts with no pilot on board. UAVs can be remote-controlled (e.g. flown by a pilot
at a ground control station) or fly autonomously based on pre-programmed flight plans or more complex dynamic automation systems.

Google Glass

Google Glass is a wearable device developed by Google with an optical head-mounted display, which is positioned to become the first
mass-market ubiquitous computer.

Internet of Things (IoT)

A world where physical objects are seamlessly integrated into information networks, and where physical objects can become active
participants in business processes. Services are available to interact with these smart objects over the Internet, query and change
their state and any information associated with them, considering security and privacy.

Machine-to-Machine (M2M)

M2M refers to a system whereby a device can communicate through a network with an application to capture information, typically
without the need for human intervention. Simply put, it refers to technologies that allow both wireless and wired systems to
communicate with other devices of the same type.

Glossary put together by Krystal Ismail

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Handy links
EXTERNAL LINKS
Energy pages on Accenture.com
Energy Information Administration

INTERNAL LINKS
The Energy Source - our centralised energy industry portal where you can
access the latest news and updates on energy, information about our segments,
services, and our fiscal 2014 strategy. Whats more you can collaborate with your
global Energy colleagues, access reusable assets and view Energy 24 webcasts.

The Energy Source includes:


o A dedicated Refined page, with more information Refined, and
how to contribute to the next edition.

WEF Energy

o More information on

International Energy Agency

Nick Butlers blog on the FT


BPs Chief Economists blog

Refined Homepage
Digitizing Energy Material

(Playbook, Infographic, Future of Work PoV)

Energy Curriculum
Energy Get Smart Videos

Life in the Field


How to apply for a personalised Energy Passport to start
collecting Energy stamps (including the Refined stamp)

Links to tools that can help you enhance your industry skills:
o

The Energy Capability Roadmap, my Learning and the Resources


Learning 360 tool are tools designed to help you enhance your
industry skills

Platts
o

UK PIA

Energy24 replay

Energy Choke Points

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies


Petroleum Economist

The Energy Source

The Energy Stream is a tool that provides you with the latest
activities and updates on The Energy Source portal feel free to
post your feedback on this edition directly onto the stream

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Energy Passport
Energy Capability Roadmap
My Learning
Resources Learning 360 tool
Energy Stream

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Meet the team...


Chief Editor
Tessa Lennartz-Walker
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t.lennartz-walker@
accenture.com

Editor
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accenture.com

Sub-Editor
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accenture.com

The Refined interactive PDF is designed


and produced by Rob Cubbon Ltd

Editor
New Energy
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Sub-Editor
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Sub-Editor
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Editor at Large
Mike Moore
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