Epidemiology: A Compartmental Analysis of

Recent Influenza Data Using Mathematica

Murphy, Kevin
murphyk3@wit.edu

Sidze, Guy-Bernard
sidzeg@wit.edu

Moreta, Juan
moretaj@wit.edu

Velez, Zuleyma
velezz@wit.edu

Foley, Ryan
foleyr4@wit.edu

Figueroa, Brian
figueroab2@wit.edu

December 11, 2014

Contents
1

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Data Collection

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SIR Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.1
SIR Model w/ Vaccinations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.2
SIR Model w/ Fatalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4
8
11

SEIR Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

14

Predicting Future Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

21

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

22

Introduction

In our society, some groups (non-governmental and governmental organizations,) try to predict and plot various diseases in areas around the world.
These areas are usually broken up into zones to allow for easier analysis and
management. The Center of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the
World Health Organization (WHO) do this annually with common diseases.
The development of this project consisted of various compartmental models
that numerically exemplified the spread of a common virus, influenza.
[6] This project will mainly focus on two different models, SIR and SEIR
models. To begin the models will be created and compared to the CDCs
influenza data in order to obtain the best model after testing several parameters in in Mathematica using several different parameters that were
gathered based on the information from the CDC on the virus.
The first model tested was the SIR model which consist of susceptible,
infected and resistant which are the essential variables in the model. An
SEIR model consists of an extra variable E which is considered exposed,
this model is more accurate because it accounts for that extra variable. The
exposed variable makes the SEIR model more accurate because it accounts
for people who have been unprotected from the virus but are not infected.
[3] When including a term to compensate for vaccinations, the term allows the model to lower the amount of people who are infected because
the susceptible can skip the infections and move forward to being resistant.
Lowering the infections and increasing the amount of resistance. In order
to account for vaccinations we must adjust the original SIR equations and
properly add a new variable to account for the vaccines.
Over time the number of susceptible will asymptotically approach zero while
the amount of infected should peak in the middle and then by the end, begin
approaching zero. The amount of resistant people eventually plateaus the
original amount of people susceptible to the virus.

Data Collection

Over the past couple of decades, the Center of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has acquired data on the influenza virus through many collab-

orating laboratories. [1] The CDC receives its information from the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch in Influenza Division. This branch collects, gathers and analyses information on the influenza virus in the United
States, year round. This branch has different categories of surveillance to
track influenza activities, one being Virological Surveillance. In this type of
surveillance, 85 U.S. World Health Organization (WHO) laboratories and 60
National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) laboratories cooperate together. Weekly, they report to the CDC the number
of respiratory specimens tested and the number of those specimens which
conclude positive for the influenza virus types A and B. A majority of the
U.S. WHO labs participating in this program also report the influenza A
subtypes H1 and H3, along with the age groups of the specimens collected.
Another type of surveillance used by the Epidemiology and Prevention
Branch in Influenza Division is Outpatient Illness Surveillance. This type
of surveillance includes a network, called the U.S. Outpatient Influenzalike Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet), which gathers information on
patient visits for influenza-like illness. More than 2,900 outpatient health
care providers from all 50 states participate in ILINet. Roughly 1,800 outpatient healthcare providers around the country report the total number of
patient visits and the number of those patients with influenza-like illnesses,
by age group, to the CDC.

Models

[7] The SIR model examine three compartments for an infectious disease
which are; S for the susceptible to the disease. I for the infected by the disease, and R for those who either recovered from the disease or were resistant.
Each letter represent the number of people in each compartment as a function time. Compartments have completely different behaviors. Initially, the
whole population is susceptible except for those who brought in the diseases,
which are the only infected. That is, initially, the sum of the susceptible,
infected, and the resistant/recovered equals the population - which should
equal zero if no one is dying. However, and the end of the outbreak, It is
assumed relatively no one is infected, nor susceptible. Therefore the whole
population is in the recovered compartment. The draw back for this model
is that it doesnt take into account time infected people become infectious.
To improve the SIR model and get rid of it draw back, an E is introduced to
the model. The SEIR model introduce the function E which is the number
people who are infected but not yet infectious over time.

SIR Model

[6] The first model that we used was an SIR model. This model is very basic
and gives the general idea of how disease spreads over time. In this model
S is the number of people that are susceptible to the virus; I is the number
of people that are infected, and R is number of people that have recovered
from the virus. All of these variables are constants while and are variables
that need to be found. In order to solve for these unknown we needed to
use a mathematical program that could solve this many times.
dS
dt = IS
dI
dt = IS I
dR
dt = I

[6] When we used this program to find the unknown variables we had to find
which values worked the best. Finding what value makes the graph closest
to the ideal graph is called the goodness of fit characteristic. The goodness
of fit describes how well a model fits a set of observations or sets of data.
Typically, goodness of fit measures the discrepancy between expected and
observed values of a given model.
The equation below explains how to calculate the goodness of fit, where
Oi is observed data and Ei is expected/theoretical data.
2 =

n
P

(Oi Ei )2

i=1

The smaller this value is the better the model becomes. To make this model
become more realistic we can add a vaccination constant as well as fatalities
to these equations. This brings in the effects of what happens when people
try to control the disease. When we add these we find out how many people
die from this disease over time.

Figure 1: SIR Model (2012-2013) - S,I,R vs. Time

Figure 2: SIR Model (2012-2013) - Model Infections vs. CDC Data

The SIR model above was calculated using incremented data in Mathematica. The table of values, along with their Goodness of fit characteristics
was generated over about 10 minutes of calculation time. Unfortunately,
this method was very slow in determining an accurate group of parameters
due to being forced to recalculate with a more precise number/step. Listing
1 below shows working code to generate the above outputs.

The code below also shows how to calculate the Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMS) for the model. Percent error for each point of CDC data is also
calculated.
Listing 1: SIR Model - Incremented Combinations
1

ClearAll["Global*"]

2
3
4
5
6
7
8

CDCdata = {{0, 161}, {1, 197}, {2, 298}, {3, 339}, {4, 409}, {5,
614}, {6, 848}, {7, 1359}, {8, 1985}, {9, 3346}, {10, 4590}, {11,
5938}, {12, 6511}, {13, 6514}, {14, 6952}, {15, 5982}, {16,
5167}, {17, 4077}, {18, 3126}, {19, 2457}, {20, 2136}, {21,
1848}, {22, 1680}, {23, 1497}, {24, 1269}, {25, 1007}, {26,
898}, {27, 644}, {28, 459}, {29, 380}};

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Squarediff[beta_,
nu_] := (sol =
First@NDSolve[{s[t] == -beta i[t] s[t],
i[t] == beta i[t] s[t] - nu i[t], r[t] == nu i[t],
i[0] == 161, s[0] == 20328, r[0] == 0}, {s, i, r}, {t, 0, 29}];
Sum[(((CDCdata[[j, 2]] - i[CDCdata[[j, 1]]]) /. sol)2), {j, 1,
Length[CDCdata]}])

17
18
19
20
21

(*Creates table of values in the form {{beta,nu}, goodness}*)

values =
Flatten[Table[{{a, n}, Squarediff[a, n]}, {a, 0.000029, 0.000033,
0.0000001}, {n, 0.2, 0.3, 0.001}], 1];

22
23
24
25
26

(*Finds the smallest value of Goodness*)

min = Min[ values[[All, 2]]];
pos = Position[values, min, 2, 1];
lowest = values[[pos[[1, 1]], 1]];

27
28
29
30

(*Prints smallest values and saves as variables*)

BetaSolved = lowest[[1]]
NuSolved = lowest[[2]]

31
32
33
34
35
36
37

*(Plug in solved values*)

Solved = First@
NDSolve[{s[t] == -(BetaSolved) i[t] s[t],
i[t] == (BetaSolved) i[t] s[t] - (NuSolved) i[t],
r[t] == (NuSolved) i[t], i[0] == 161, s[0] == 20328,
r[0] == 0}, {s, i, r}, {t, 0, 29}];

38

39
40
41
42

(*Generate plot of all solutions as well as infected vs. CDC Data*)

Show[Plot[{s[t] /. Solved, r[t] /. Solved, i[t] /. Solved}, {t, 0,
32}], ListPlot[CDCdata]]
Show[ListPlot[CDCdata], Plot[{i[t] /. Solved}, {t, 0, 32}]]

43
44
45
46
47
48
49

(*Generate table of all errors for each point*)

i = i /. Solved;
ErrorFind[num_] :=
Abs[(((i[num]) - (CDCdata[[(num + 1), 2]]))/i[num])*100];
Error = Table[{{inc}, {ErrorFind[inc]}}, {inc,
0, (Length[CDCdata] - 1) , 1}];

50
51
52
53
54

(*Find maximum error for research purposes*)

MaxError = Max[Error[[All, 2]]]
Pos = Position[Error, MaxError];
MaxErrorPoint = Pos[[1, 1]] - 1

55
56
57

(*Calculate Root Mean Squared of model*)

RMS = Sqrt[min/Length[CDCdata]]

Results
= 0.0000324
= 0.234
M axError = 51.4648%
RM S = 602.036
By using a random number function within a range, it was easier to set
how many numbers were to be tested for each parameter, plus account for a
certain number of decimal points. Almost every time, the random generator
was more accurate at finding a better fit for the infected function against
the CDCs data. Listing 2 below shows modified code to the values table
by using randomly generated combinations for and .

Figure 3: SIR Model (2011-2012) - Randomly Generated Parameters

Listing 2: SIR Model - Random Combinations

1
2
3
4
5

(*Creates table of values in the form {beta, goodness}*)

values = Flatten[
Table[{{a, n}, Squarediff[a, n]}, {a,
RandomReal[{0.00003, 0.000035}, {150}]}, {n,
RandomReal[{0.22, 0.25}, {150}]}], 1];

Results
= 0.0000324242
= 0.234369
M axError = 51.4867%
RM S = 601.971

4.1

SIR Model w/ Vaccinations

Individuals get vaccinations either at birth or later in life to immune themselves from an epidemic disease. According to dictionary.com vaccine is any
preparation used as a preventive inoculation to confer immunity against a
specific disease, usually employing an innocuous form of the disease agent,
as killed or weakened bacteria or viruses, to stimulate antibody production.
Therefore, the parameter p for vaccination must be added to the SIR model
8

to account for the vaccinated individuals since the vaccinated people cant
become infected.
dS
IS
dt = N S
IS
dI
dt = N I
dR
dt = I + S

By using a new term to account for people getting a vaccine (in this case a
flu shot,) the model accuracy was greatly improved compared to other models. Seen below, the vaccination models more realistically aid in solving the
SIR model considering how vaccinations effect real CDC disease/infection
data.

Figure 4: SIR Model (2011-2012) - Including Vaccinations

Figure 5: SIR Model (2011-2012) - Including Vaccinations

Listing 3: SIR Model - Vaccinations

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Squarediff[beta_, nu_,
gamma_] := (sol =
First@NDSolve[{s[t] == -beta ((i[t] s[t])/population) gamma s[t], i[t] == beta ((i[t] s[t])/population) - nu i[t],
r[t] == nu i[t] + gamma s[t], i[0] == 161, s[0] == 20328,
r[0] == 0}, {s, i, r}, {t, 0, 29}];
Sum[(((CDCdata[[j, 2]] - i[CDCdata[[j, 1]]]) /. sol)2), {j, 1,
Length[CDCdata]}])

9
10
11
12
13

(*Creates table of values in the form {beta, goodness}*)

values = Flatten[
Table[{{b, n, g}, Squarediff[b, n, g]}, {b, 0.55, 0.65, 0.01}, {n,
0.15, 0.2, 0.01}, {g, 0.0, 0.0001, 0.00001}], 2];

Results
= 0.63
= 0.2
= 0.0001
M axError = 57.6483%
RM S = 843.905

10

4.2

SIR Model w/ Fatalities

Above we assumed constant population to find parameter that closely represent our data. This assumption is unrealistic and doesnt reflect the real
world; since all populations are bound to have a certain degree of dynamicity. Birth rate and death rate in a community can never be equal for a
duration of 30 weeks. In an attempt to make the SIR model more accurate, the death term was added to the original model. One should note that
the flu is usually not fatal, but this was included to possibly account for
anomalies in data and/or just for experimentation. Below is a new set of
differential equation including the death term.
dS
I
dt = N S N
I
dI
dt = N S ( + )I
dR
dt = I R

[2] It can be noticed that the terms N S, I R were added.

Definition of Terms
N: Number of births
S: Death of susceptible
I: Death of infected
R: Death of recovered
Modeling the effects of a fatal disease on a population is extremely fascinating and helpful. Below are several models of the effect of a death rate
among the infected for a disease. As shown in the different sets of graphs,
a smaller death rate doesnt always result in the fewest amount dead. Unfortunately, for most models that include fatalities, there is somewhat of a
sweet spot where the amount of deaths is maximized. Surprisingly, if 50%
of infected beings died, it would be less detrimental to the population as a
whole since the infection would less-widely spread.

11

Figure 6: SIR Model (2011-2012) - Death Rate (0.1%)

Figure 7: SIR Model (2011-2012) - Death Rate Population (0.1%)

Below are the models for the maximum killed with a death rate of 18.5%
of the infected. It is interesting to note that this happens when the resistant
and susceptible functions are asymptotic at the same y-axis value. This
phenomena is still unexplained.

12

Figure 8: SIR Model (2011-2012) - Death Rate (Max - 18.5%)

Figure 9: SIR Model (2011-2012) - Death Rate Population (Max - 18.5%)

Being that the death rate can be a bit more complicated, the full code
below for Mathematica is below. Manipulate is used to allow for playing
with values. Note that and are specified - these are values from solving
the SIR model in Listing 1.
Listing 4: SIR Model - Death Rate w/ Manipulation
13

ClearAll["Global*"]

2
3
4
5
6
7
8

CDCdata = {{0, 161}, {1, 197}, {2, 298}, {3, 339}, {4, 409}, {5,
614}, {6, 848}, {7, 1359}, {8, 1985}, {9, 3346}, {10, 4590}, {11,
5938}, {12, 6511}, {13, 6514}, {14, 6952}, {15, 5982}, {16,
5167}, {17, 4077}, {18, 3126}, {19, 2457}, {20, 2136}, {21,
1848}, {22, 1680}, {23, 1497}, {24, 1269}, {25, 1007}, {26,
898}, {27, 644}, {28, 459}, {29, 380}};

9
10
11

p = Interpolation[CDCdata];
Population = 20328;

12
13
14

BetaSolved = 0.0000309;
NuSolved = 0.2134;

15
16
17
18
19

sir = ParametricNDSolveValue[{s[t] == -BetaSolved i[t] s[t],

i[t] == BetaSolved i[t] s[t] - NuSolved i[t] - Death i[t],
r[t] == NuSolved i[t], i[0] == 161, s[0] == 20328,
r[0] == 0}, {s, i, r}, {t, 0, 50}, {Death}];

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27

Manipulate[
Module[{s, i, r}, {s = sir[a][[1]], i = sir[a][[2]], r = sir[a][[3]]};
Grid[{{Plot[{i[t], r[t], s[t]}, {t, 0, 50}, PlotRange -> {0, 20000},
ImageSize -> Medium],
Plot[s[t] + i[t] + r[t], {t, 0, 50},
ImageSize -> Medium]}}]], {{a, 0.001, "Death Rate"}, 0.0, 1,
Appearance -> "Labeled"}]

SEIR Model

An SEIR model is used to find out how different types of diseases react in a
real life situation. This model can be used to predict how many people are
going to die from the disease or be infected from it. This model is also used
to determine how many people are going to be recovered after they become
infected from the disease. [5] The SEIR model consists of the variables S,
E, I, and R. The variables represent people that are Susceptible, Exposed,
Infected, and Recovered. The variable S is going to be used to represent
the number of people that are not yet infected but have the chance to be
susceptible to the disease. E is the variable that we are going to use to
represent the people that are going to be exposed to the disease but are not
necessarily going to be infected towards it. [4] The people exposed have the
chance to potentially be immune to the disease. The variable I is going to
14

be used to represent the number of people that are infected by the disease.
And the R is the variable that is going to be used to represent the number
of people that are recovered from the disease. The equations that were used
for the model are:
dS
I
dt = N S N S
dE
I
dt = N S ( + )E
dI
dt = E ( + I
dR
dt = I R

The variables N, , , , and are also included in this model. N is the

total population, and was used as the transmission rate of disease. The
variable was used as the natural death rate of the sub-population. Listing 5 below includes full Mathematica code for solving an SEIR model with
incremented combinations for all variables.
Listing 5: SEIR Model - Incremented Combinations
1

ClearAll["Global*"]

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22

CDCdata = {{0, 161}, {1, 197}, {2, 298}, {3, 339}, {4, 409}, {5,
614}, {6, 848}, {7, 1359}, {8, 1985}, {9, 3346}, {10, 4590}, {11,
5938}, {12, 6511}, {13, 6514}, {14, 6952}, {15, 5982}, {16,
5167}, {17, 4077}, {18, 3126}, {19, 2457}, {20, 2136}, {21,
1848}, {22, 1680}, {23, 1497}, {24, 1269}, {25, 1007}, {26,
898}, {27, 644}, {28, 459}, {29, 380}};
Population = 20328;
Squarediff[mu_, beta_, alpha_,
nu_] := (sol =
First@NDSolve[{s[t] ==
mu*Population - mu*s[t] - beta*(i[t]/Population)*s[t],
e[t] == beta*(i[t]/Population)*s[t] - (mu + alpha) e[t],
i[t] == alpha*(e[t]) - (nu + mu)*(i[t]),
r[t] == nu*i[t] - mu*r[t],
i[0] == 161,
s[0] == 20328,
r[0] == 0, e[0] == 0},
{s, e, i, r}, {t, 0, 29}];
Sum[(((CDCdata[[j, 2]] - i[CDCdata[[j, 1]]]) /. sol)2), {j, 1,
Length[CDCdata]}])

23

15

24
25
26
27

values = Flatten[
Table[{{a, b, c, d}, Squarediff[a, b, c, d]}, {a, 0, 0.001,
0.001}, {b, 1, 1.1, 0.001}, {c, 1, 1.1, 0.001}, {d, 0.24, 0.25,
0.001}], 3];

28
29
30
31

min = Min[ values[[All, 2]]];

pos = Position[values, min, 2, 1];
lowest = values[[pos[[1, 1]], 1]];

32
33
34
35
36

MuSolved = lowest[[1]]
BetaSolved = lowest[[2]]
AlphaSolved = lowest[[3]]
NuSolved = lowest[[4]]

37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49

Solved = First@
NDSolve[{s[t] == (MuSolved)*Population - MuSolved*s[t] BetaSolved*(i[t]/Population)*s[t],
e[t] ==
BetaSolved*(i[t]/Population)*
s[t] - (MuSolved + AlphaSolved) e[t],
i[t] == AlphaSolved*(e[t]) - (NuSolved + MuSolved)*(i[t]),
r[t] == NuSolved*i[t] - MuSolved*r[t],
i[0] == 161,
s[0] == 20328,
r[0] == 0, e[0] == 0},
{s, e, i, r}, {t, 0, 29}];

50
51
52
53

Show[Plot[{s[t] /. Solved, e[t] /. Solved, r[t] /. Solved,

i[t] /. Solved}, {t, 0, 32}], ListPlot[CDCdata]]
Show[ListPlot[CDCdata], Plot[{i[t] /. Solved}, {t, 0, 32}]]

Results
= 0.0
= 1.0
= 1.02
= 0.25
M axError = 40.3743%
RM S = 401.864

16

Figure 10: SEIR Model (2011-2012) - S,E,I,R vs. Time

Figure 11: SEIR Model (2011-2012) - Model Infections vs. CDC Data

As mentioned above, random values allow for quicker calculations and cover
a larger spectrum of numbers without causing a large amount of calculation time. This also allows a group of numbers that would have never been
placed in combination using incremented values to be solved together.

17

Figure 12: SEIR Model (2011-2012) - Randomly Generated Parameters

The variables N, , , , and are also included in this model. N is the

total population, and was used as the transmission rate of disease. The
variable was used as the natural death rate of the sub-population. Listing
6 below includes manipulated code for randomly generated values to solve
an SEIR model using Mathematica.
Listing 6: SEIR Model - Random Combinations
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Population = 20328;
Squarediff[mu_, beta_, alpha_,
nu_] := (sol =
First@NDSolve[{s[t] ==
mu*Population - mu*s[t] - beta*(i[t]/Population)*s[t],
e[t] == beta*(i[t]/Population)*s[t] - (mu + alpha) e[t],
i[t] == alpha*(e[t]) - (nu + mu)*(i[t]),
r[t] == nu*i[t] - mu*r[t],
i[0] == 161,
s[0] == 20328,
r[0] == 0, e[0] == 0},
{s, e, i, r}, {t, 0, 29}];
Sum[(((CDCdata[[j, 2]] - i[CDCdata[[j, 1]]]) /. sol)2), {j, 1,
Length[CDCdata]}])

15
16
17
18

values = Flatten[
Table[{{a, b, c, d}, Squarediff[a, b, c, d]}, {a,
RandomReal[{0, 0.00001}, {1}]}, {b,

18

RandomReal[{1, 1.1}, {15}]}, {c, RandomReal[{1, 1.1}, {15}]}, {d,

RandomReal[{0.23, 0.245}, {15}]}], 3];

19
20

Results
= 6.17903 10 6
= 1.0105
= 1.00591
= 0.244964
M axError = 42.314%
RM S = 438.685

Predicting Future Data

Predicting future outbreaks and their results is a large reason why epidemiology models exist, making them one of the most useful tools to disease control/healthcare organizations. Solving the model from a given years data can
lead to constants allowing the prediction of the consecutive year with just
the use of initial conditions. By gathering a small amount of data from the
beginning of the outbreak, the predictions of the lifespan of the disease can
help predict how much vaccine needs to be produced, etc. Unfortunately,
a small sample size could potentially be detrimental to results compared to
the year before or after.
We had initially solved the 2012-2013 general model for the influenza by
the CDC. The 2011-2012 data was then manipulated and a model was also
generated. To our surprise, the data took a massive spike in the middle of
the outbreak, creating a large amount of error throughout the rest of the
model. Comparing our parameters for both 2012-2013 and 2011-2012, they
proved to be quite different. Below is our results for the 2011-2012 influenza
model.

19

Figure 13: SIR Model (2011-2012)

Listing 7: SEIR Model - Random Combinations

1

ClearAll["Global*"]

2
3
4
5
6
7
8

CDCdata = {{0, 75}, {1, 73}, {2, 106}, {3, 129}, {4, 192}, {5,
175}, {6, 177}, {7, 229}, {8, 312}, {9, 466}, {10, 658}, {11,
797}, {12, 1050}, {13, 1386}, {14, 1928}, {15, 2282}, {16,
2646}, {17, 2171}, {18, 1561}, {19, 1446}, {20, 1254}, {21,
1157}, {22, 851}, {23, 720}, {24, 614}, {25, 510}, {26, 422}, {27,
371}, {28, 304}, {29, 303}};

9
10

p = Interpolation[CDCdata];

11
12

Population = 8295;

13
14
15
16

sir = ParametricNDSolveValue[{s[t] == -beta i[t] s[t],

i[t] == beta i[t] s[t] - nu i[t], r[t] == nu i[t], i[0] == 33,
s[0] == 8295, r[0] == 0}, {s, i, r}, {t, 0, 29}, {beta, nu}];

17
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19
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Manipulate[Module[{s, i, r}, {s == sir[a, b][[1]], i = sir[a, b][[2]]};

Plot[{i[t], p[t]}, {t, 0, 29}]], {{a, 0.00001, \[Mu]}, 0.00001,
0.00015, Appearance -> "Labeled"}, {{b, 0, \[Nu]}, 0., 0.25,
Appearance -> "Labeled"}]

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The code above allows CDC data from 2011-2012 to be solved by manipulating values for and .

Conclusion

In this project we modeled what the influenza virus would look like in a small
country of 21,000 people. We showed how well this model was by seeing how
low we can make the goodness of fit characteristics. This shows how close
our model was to the ideal model. Determined by the goodness of fit, our
data was tightly knit to the CDCs model of the virus. The SIR model was
enhanced by the SEIR model with the account of the extra variable E which
symbolized the people exposed to the virus. After including this variable
in the model we get a more realistic model of this epidemic. This variable
represents the number of people that do not have a defense against the virus
but are yet to be infected. Adjusting the equations to consist of vaccinations
which creates a more practical model. Over the course of this pandemic the
number of people that can catch this virus will decrease to zero while the
number infected will grow to the total population except for the people that
have the vaccine. The people that are resistant. As time increases the initial value of susceptible people will closely resemble the amount of resistant
people by the end of the pandemic, representing either the natural process
of the human immune system, or the use of modern medicine.
Future Work
In the future, since all above work has been evaluated heavily, our intentions
would be to predict the beginning of the 2013-2014 outbreak of influenza.
Another possibility would be to monitor the spread of other diseases that
act similarly.

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References
[1] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Overview of Influenza
Surveillance in the United States. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013. [Online; accessed 9-November-2013].
[2] Youjin Lee. Stochastic Modeling of Vaccine-Derived Poliomyelitis. 2008.
[Online; accessed 11-November-2013].
[3] Hanz Nesse. SIR Model. [Online; accessed 11-November-2013].
[4] Raul et al. Nistal. Limit Periodic Solutions of a SEIR Mathematical
Model for Non-lethal Infectious Disease. 2012. [Online; accessed 11November-2013].
[5] Wikipedia. Epidemic Model - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. 2012.
[Online; accessed 13-November-2013].
[6] Wikipedia. Compartmental models in epidemiology - Wikipedia, the free
encyclopedia. 2013. [Online; accessed 13-November-2013].
[7] Yongqing Yuan. The Collision Regions Between Two. 2012. [Online;
accessed 11-November-2013].

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