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Dr Robert S
Zeigler, IRRI
etween 2014 and 2031, Africa will expand its rice production area by almost 50 percent
to become a global leader, according to analysis on the global rice production and
demand according to IHS Inc the leading global source of critical information and
insight.
IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York
Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, IHS employs approximately
8000 people in 31 countries around the world.
Key findings of new IHS analysis:
1) Africas rapid expansion of areas for rice production will be the fastest globally in percentage
terms
2) Asian demand, mainly from China, is driving a majority of the growth in rice consumption
during 2014/15
3) However, Africas rice import demand is driving much of the worlds long-term import growth
4) With a lower Indian rice production estimate due to issues relating to a later monsoon, India is
forecast to lose its spot as top exporter in 2014/15 to Thailand
Africas rapid expansion of areas for rice production will be the fastest globally, in percentage
terms. Across sub-Saharan Africa, the development of the agriculture sector is viewed by many
countries as a way to: Diversify their economies away from excessive dependence on the mining
sub-sector; increase employment prospects and enhance poverty reduction.
Cote dIvoire plans to spend US$4 billion on agriculture development in order to improve crop
yields and, in four years, become a rice exporter, said Karanta Kalley, chief economist for Africa
at IHS.
The Government
of Burundi and IRRI
share the same
vision: to provide
sustainable methods
of growing rice
to improve the
well-being of rice
producers and
consumers, to reduce
poverty and preserve
the environment
However, economic development, especially in West Africa, has a question mark hanging over it.
Right now, the question on everyones mind is what the impact of Ebola will be on the economic
growth of sub-Saharan Africa, Kalley said.
IHS expects real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be curbed significantly for 2014 in
Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as a result of the ongoing Ebola outbreak.
The IHS real GDP growth rate forecasts have been cut between one-half and nine-tenths of
previous forecasts, with Sierra Leones economy projected to have the highest rate of growth at 3.1
percent followed Guinea at 2.0 percent. IHS foresees only a marginal real economic growth rate of
0.8 percent for Liberias economy.
The spread of Ebola is still a concern for Nigeria, the regions economic and population giant.
Public awareness and facilities in Lagos are better than in the Sierra Leone-Guinea-Liberia
triangle, so the chances are fairly good that Nigeria can restrict its outbreak, Kalley said.
Although agriculture has dropped from 35 percent of the Nigerian economy to 22 percent due to
the recent data criteria change, prospects for Nigerias real economic growth for the rest of 2014 are
bright.
Asian demand drives global rice
Table 1: Top global rice exporters (in thousand tonnes)
growth in 2014/15; Africa drives
2013/14
2014/15
long-term growth
World rice demand for 2014/15 is
Thailand
9000
10,041
forecast
to rise to 478 million tonnes,
India
10,000
8388
a 4.4-million-tonne increase from the
Vietnam
6500
6614
previous year. For 2015/16, world rice
Pakistan
3900
4055
demand is expected to increase by 4.5
United States
3011
3462
million tonnes, to 483 million tonnes.
Asian demand, mainly from China,
Poverty reduction