CNI Publications; Weekly Plattern

Weekly summary

Vol -1, No-I, 10 April, 2015, 11 pages

Editorial
Human beings are essentially bullish by nature.
Hence the desire to see good bullish moves. Also the
fact that everyone is happy when bulls reign is known
across the globe. In addition to the general bonhomie
which exists at such times there is a feel good factor
as well. In India ,as it is not a very spendthrift and
debt laden culture these profits look good only on
paper. As seldom, in the desire to earn more ,and
being greedy in nature, can people sell. So these are
essentially paper profits. But until the good times last
the feeling is good.
I am tired of saying this, Greek problem cannot be
wished away. They seem to have settled their
differences and paid money to IMF as well. Are they
out of the woods? I doubt.
Iran deal although done may become unravelled by
their supreme leader statement. Oil went up as a
result.
The above two are the jokers in the pack a long with
ms. Yellen. Individually they can rock the boat buy
collectively they can sink large ships and small
countries.
If according to Black Rock the bulls could reign the
US markets for at least a year as as bull markets
don't die on tired bulls. So if this is true money could
continue to rain over India. Both go hand in hand
bulls reign and money rain.
Also India is at the other end of the spectrum as
compared to the US. There they want to increase
inflation here we are at the end of the inflationary
cycle and is bound to come down over time. There
talks are to increase interest rates here the clamor is
to reduce them. Due fall in commodity prices and no
passing on subsequently bottom lines could improve.
In the US due strong USD the bottom lines and top
lines could both get affected, adversely.

Cni Research Limited

Change of the week

10-Apr-15

Rise /Gain

Sensex

28261

618

Nifty

8780

194

FII

DII

06-Apr-15

1014.7

(170.)

07- Apr -15

258.3

(326.0)

08- Apr -15

(266.9)

382.5

09- Apr -15

239.2

492.7

10- Apr -15

362.7

(135.1)

1608

244.1

Total

Turnover (` Cr)
FII

DII

Combined

10-April-15

44,989

17,125

62,115.2

10-April-15

Advances

www.cniglobalbiz.com

895

Declines
552

Ratio
1.62

With improving visibility and hope of improved rating

the rupee may start gaining...save the blip when the
US actually raises rates...time for chupke chupke chal
gaya rupya...gains from stocks and currency
movement.
Banking and OIL sector will be most fancied sectors.
Becker's and Royal Dutch Shell's deal set trends in
OIL. There are few smart investors going long in all
OIL stocks. Tide Water Castrol OIL India and few
others are attracting attention. Avoid stocks
depending on shallow water technology which seems
outdated.
Unexpected happens in the street. When no one
desired the Moody set positive rating and will also not
raise the grade soon. Even S and P set to do that.
IRAN and no rate cut digested by the market simply
because market runs of demand and supply
positions.

5 Top Gainer
Stock

10-Apr-15

06-Apr-15

HDIL

136.6

103.7

31.7

KAILASH AUTO

6.25

4.8

29.4

NTWK MED INV

63.7

50.7

25.6

VAKRANGEE

133.6

108.0

23.6

108

89.2

21.0

INDIA CEM

% Gain

5 Top Losers
Stock

10-Apr-15

06-Apr-15

% Loss

PMC FIN

25.4

37.7

32.7

SUNTVNET

391.2

453.8

13.7

GATEWAY DIST

371.1

421.3

11.9

VATECH WABAG

782

825.8

5.3

TRENT LTD

1411

1489.1

5.2

Top 5 Picks By CNI 'A' Group

Traders were long in the last settlement and you have
seen Nifty correcting from 9000 plus to 8350. Now all
negative news coming in and street is travelling
towards 9000. Simply everyone was expecting 7200
though I never believed this to happen.

Company
REL
PNB
SBI

Banking stocks will see new highs thanks to rating by

Moody. Even the credit off take will start picking up
Now everyone believes that Q4 earnings could be
bad. Who knows... I feel that nos will be better than
street expectations. Particularly in banking. Reason is
very simple. The NPA have started falling down. Now
its almost 11 months post MODI era and companies
have started repaying debts. Govt is taking stern
actions against defaulters. Finally when things
improve even bankrupt companies start getting
revived and funds re surface. SBI Chairman has gone
on record saying NPA is falling sharply. Pvt banks
already slim and fit hence can see more upside.
Which PVT banks would not like to raise funds
through QIP at higher valuations given the huge
interest of FII in banking...? So I believe much upside
in banking

Cni Research Limited

TATA STEEL
HERO HONDA
Top 5 Picks By CNI 'B' Group
Company

www.cniglobalbiz.com

GLOBAL OFFSHORE
KINETIC ENG
RASI ELECTRODES
CMI
NUTRAPLUS

Equity is the best investment option in the current scenario. B Dyeing could be the best stock if we look at the
decision of the H C where they allowed RAHEJA to build MALAD property. Wadia might go in S C but for sure
operators will not waste next 10 years to unlock value in this stock. With 1 cr sq ft land bank at WORLI and
DADAR stock price is undervalued. Century had seen value unlocking of cement, retail, textiles, paper and real
estate. Same way this stock will find its rhythm going. The only resistance is Rs 90 and many strong hands
were waiting for this judgement. Stock today moved 3 pc hence it looks like this is for big inning.
I had mentioned yesterday about RIL which moved on OIL find. This stock has underperformed since last few
years...? Can the equation change...? If it cross Rs 1000 then I can see another 50% in this stock.
Logon na maro issey... Yahi to mera dumdaar hai,sorry Anamika for twisting your song...
The reference is to the index,preference is yours Sensex or Nifty. Pointless to keep on hitting it in the hope
that it will wilt,buckle and go down. In fact the reverse might happen. Just as a mischievous child becomes
used to daily beatings and one day revolts, the index may adopt similar behavior.
Results are largely discounted..any negative surprises, after a knee jerk,will see buying.
Central Bank event is over. The Guv managed to talk down rates by saying banks not passing on rate cuts. A
lot of ifs and buts...my guess is trajectory will be downwards,midterm rate cuts a distinct possibility but post
onset of monsoon. Markets will obviously start discounting this in advance. PSU banks which bore the brunt
due status quo from RBI will be sought after once again.
US employment figures getting lowered speaks for itself. Economy is not doing as well as imagined.
However,if it is due to bad weather then numbers will start reflecting reality. Possibility of one-and-done or
none-and-done is very much on the cards.
China stimulus,if at all,when it comes,will add to the already abundant liquidity sloshing around.
Weaker USD and Euro strengthening along with China stimulus can fuel a metals,commodity rally.
Global rally is unlikely to peter out soon. Money may move out of US mkts to Europe and EM with India as the
center point.
Keep your focus,keep buying and like Arjun's eyes on the fish(single minded devotion)sing piya tosey naina
lagey re...
Coming back to Nifty as I told you the game is fixed. IRAN and NO RATE CUT did not hamper market. Knee
jerk was there yesterday to trap all traders on wrong foot. Now short covering will take Nifty past 9000. Nico
OIL report is firing RIL counter. GOI's report on OIL investment has made ORANGE MAURITIUS to acquire
some stake in GOSL from market. In my opinion they will increase it further to at least 2 to 3% in course of time
which could be a game changer for this stock.
Central Bank ie RBI maintains status quo. Inflation expectation lowered. Will wait for data to decide. Typical
finanspeak. Neither here nor there...but the market will move and move up. It is in that mode where corrections
bring in buyers and the market then tends to cross the previous high. Wonder when the fence sitters will take
the plunge. This will be the time when the frenzy will begin and give way to euphoria. That may well be the last
leg after which the markets will be in a correction mode for long. But this is still faraway and is like talking about
what name to give to the child even before deciding who the better half is going to be.

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

The result season will soon kick off. The food thing is there is absolutely no expectation of any positive
surprises. An in-line result may see shorts getting covered and any out performance vis-a-vis estimates will
result in good buying.
Money is still sloshing around thanks to the various QEs in place and hope that US will be constrained to raise
rates early. In all bullishness is the flavor. Many are unable to smell the fragrance of khichdi being cooked may
well end up in cooking their own goose. Those not participating in this rally will be doing so at their own peril.
Sooner rather than later interest rates will be lowered and in the same breath corporate numbers, if not this
time will positively surprise on the upside, next time. This due no reduction in prices even though input prices
have come off drastically. Fundamentals have to catch up and will,soonest.
The swiftness of the move up will surprise.. Those sitting on cash and or on the fence may well rue their
decision to so do. They may face the situation that Michael did,phir na kehna Michael daru pee ke danga karta
hai...
What next..? Market moves on positions. Earlier last week every 1 was expecting big correction on IRAN news
but market defied. Now no rate cut street short and market will defy. In last settlement Nifty corrected from
9030 to 8350 and this settlement this has to reverse which also means we should cross 9000. This is simply
because you all gamble for the market makers and believe me 700 points Nifty ( which is 8%) is huge for any
market maker in the world for less than 30 days trading. FII cannot refrain to be part of this trading profits
hence MAT will not allow them to leave INDIA.
In any case 90% trades are from treaty country where MAT is not applicable. Therefore media shout is for the
obvious reasons which you all know. Apply your mind and stay cool. Century CNI had told you about
restructuring 15 months back when the price was Rs 300 and at 720 whole world is now buyer. I still believe
Century will cross Rs 2000 in next few years.
US markets shuru hota,aadhi raat ke baad...Australia,Japan, shuru hota hai. O so much to look for so many
markets to track. For commodity direction look at China,Australia and Brazil. For interest rates look at US...for
currency look for USD/jpy,USD/Eur, for oil look to the USD/Eur and also the very volatile and inflammable gulf
region.
The plethora of data which emanates out of each country is to be analysed as also if there is any problem
country in a specific region needs to be attended to,eg Greece....
Jab savera hota hai, ie tomorrow we have the RBI policy announcement. I reckon a status quo,with a crr cut
with dovish statements, promise of cuts in near future...could be in between policies. Ref to monsoon and US
rates is on the cards and the effect of deficient monsoon and increase in US rates would be keenly watched.
Talking about US rates likelihood of an increase in sep as employment data fell well short of expectation.
Relief for India. Possibility of euro strengthening likely. Commodities to benefit. Oil will trade in spurts as
possibility of Iran share Adding to the glut will act as a cap and OPEC curbing production, the mere possibility,
will act as a support.
Despite media hype on mat payable by fiis the markets holding firm. Shows strength. Buying emerging
markets at lower levels, invariably, lends credence to our bullishness.
A lot of reforms on the anvil. Govt repromulgating ordinance for land bill speaks of govt confidence to get this
epic bill passed by Parliament.

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

The rise after consolidation will be sharp and breath taking. Not many will be able to participate as they will
feel the rise to be too sudden and swift..when they throw in their towel and enter...a correction will ensue, again
they will let go their positions. Ability and capability to hold on to stocks is of paramount importance. Huge
gains possible. People who buy even now can surely and safely sing...meri lottery lag Jane wali hai.....

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Next Weeks Events

GLOBAL STORY

Monday, 13-Apr-2015
4-Week Bill Announcement
3-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday,14-Apr-2015
Retail Sales
Business Inventories
Wednesday,15-Apr-2015
Industrial Production
EIA Petroleum Status
Thursday,16-Apr-2015
Jobless Claim
Housing Starts
Friday, 17-Apr-2015
Consumer Price Index

Cni Research Limited

First of all, I must thank all CNI team of analysts

and economists which had predicted the market
behaviour in right spirit and direction proving their
reading to the point. 700 points drop on the expiry
day can at the most called product of ghost
mindset. What we say had been proven as markets
bounced back immediately thereafter.
We had occasional dialogue with resourceful
chartist (though they never trade in the market for
their own) clearly giving target of 7200 on Nifty
saying Q4 earnings will be disastrous. What made
Nifty to run from 6000 to 9000..? Was the earnings
ever factored in at that point in time...? Sensex PE
crossed 20 which is at least 33% higher than DOW.
If it was not for earnings then the same can be
assigned as manipulation and speculative.
There was concentrated efforts to take market to
Nifty 9000 was equal no of short positions were
getting built at every level. In absence of physical
settlement it is very easy to make GAMES in F and
O which we call as LICENSE to kill. e g recently
Century has moved 30% but not before the stock
gone into ban which did not allow any major retail
traders to take positions in F and O. If we knew
from last 15 months that restructuring is happening
in Century and stock will move to these levels might
well someone who created positions in MARCH too
knew it well. Stock was in ban even in MARCH.
Then the story came out and stock ran 30%. IF this
happens in B gr shares it is called CRIME and
eyebrows are raised. In F and O stocks there are
enquires. If you remember same thing had
happened in ISPAT INDUSTRIES which ran from
Rs 16 to 26 in BAN in just matter of time when JSW
acquired ISPAT INDUSTRIES. Business Standard
had carried article on the same but nothing
happened even at that time. Reason the stock was
in F and O.

www.cniglobalbiz.com

We are neither on Century nor on ISPAT. Out moot point is markets are driven on positions. Unless you get
shorts market will never rise. So logically, on budget when market gone long operators decided to go short and
against all odds they brought down market from 9030 to 8350 including 160 points drop on the penultimate
day. Once the difference was pocketed there was no reason to see market heading further down. But the
rumour machines were kept active for 7200 with chartist buzzing for further fall. Even this community was used
in media for giving weak opinion though now they have started reversing their views in public domain. Yet they
have not gone bullish as they still believe that 8900 9000 9030 will act as big resistances.
We all believe that there are no resistances and nifty all set to cross 9400 and then 10000. It is up to you which
way you want to travel. We can just take the horse to the water but can't make it drink. Going long or short is
your call. At the end of the day you will earn or lose.
Coming on fundamentals, even though earnings may not be good surprisingly street is expecting bad number
hence to our mind market will not fall even on bad nos. Rather little good number could make stocks and
markets run at good speed. SO avoid shorting and try to dips. Also avoid playing earnings play. You may get
trapped on wrong foot.
Better than expected revenue raising, fiscal deficit under control, CAD under control, inflation under control,
and positive tone of RBI and now huge MNFG nos could be good tonic for the market. We say it was
inevitable. Nifty has come long way from 8350 to 8830 yet the shorts are intact and no one majorly bullish in
the earning calendar month. This itself is a good driver of the market.
In March many stocks had corrected by 30 to 40 pc thanks to brokers. Now all these stocks are recovered
smartly all lost grounds giving 30 to 40% returns over just 15 days. We expect huge upside in B grade stocks
as those who were left out will never be able to buy again and new sets of investors have checked in. These
strong hands have good holding capacity hence we will see liquidity drying in many stocks. At the same time
many new FII have entered INDIA in many mid cap and small cap stocks. These will the momentum going.
We therefore advise our members to hold on to their positions fearlessly and wait for sizable gains in all the B
grade stocks.

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Global Indices
Country

Indices

Date

Index

Net Change

Change

Hong Kong

Hang Seng

10/04

27,272.39

+328.00

+1.22

Singapore

Straits Times

10/04

3,472.38

+12.08

+0.35

South Korea

Seoul Composite

10/04

4,995.98

+21.41

+0.43

United States

NASDAQ

10/04

18,057.65

+98.92

+0.55

United States

DJIA

10/04

2,102.06

+10.88

+0.52

United States

S&P 500

10/04

19,907.63

-30.09

-0.15

Japan

Nikkei 225

10/04

7,089.77

+74.41

+1.06

United Kingdom

FTSE 100

10/04

1,844.31

-5.08

-0.27

Malaysia

KLSE Composite

10/04

5,491.34

-9.56

-0.17

Indonesia

Jakarta Composite

10/04

1,547.83

+2.72

+0.18

Thailand

SET

10/04

5,240.46

+31.51

+0.60

France

CAC 40

10/04

12,374.73

+208.29

+1.71

Germany

DAX

10/04

11,686.61

+177.10

+1.54

Argentina

MerVal

10/04

54,214.11

+411.45

+0.76

Brazil

Bovespa

10/04

44,882.01

-31.26

-0.07

Mexico

IPC

10/04

2,620.52

+5.94

+0.23

Austria

ATX

10/04

3,905.71

+34.05

+0.88

Belgium

BEL-20

10/04

507.17

+5.20

+1.04

Netherlands

AEX General

10/04

1,191.12

+1.05

+0.09

Spain

Madrid General

10/04

9,471.46

+78.08

+0.83

Switzerland

Swiss Market

10/04

5,935.36

+33.86

+0.57

Australia

All Ordinaries

10/04

4,034.31

+76.78

+1.94

China

Shanghai Composite

10/04

8,127.48

+74.79

+0.93

Philippines

PSE Composite

10/04

6,901.06

+1.77

+0.03

Sri Lanka

All Share

10/04

9,617.70

+49.66

+0.52

Taiwan

Taiwan Weighted

10/04

1,443.56

-10.28

-0.71

East Egypt

CMA

10/04

2,087.76

+28.89

-0.71

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Bulk deal
Company Name

Date

BSE Code

AIFL

10-Apr-15

535467

NEHA SANGHVI

125000

AIFL

10-Apr-15

535467

LASHIT SANGHVI

125000

145

AIFL

10-Apr-15

535467

NIKHIL VORA

175000

147.57

AIFL

10-Apr-15

535467

NNM SECURITIES PVT L

233000

150.99

AIFL

10-Apr-15

535467

NNM SECURITIES PVT L

129000

163.46

AIFL

10-Apr-15

535467

BHAVESH BHANUSHALI

175000

145.11

ANSHUS

10-Apr-15

534707

DIPAK ASHOKBHAI JETH

187500

7.64

ANSHUS

10-Apr-15

534707

DIPAK ASHOKBHAI JETH

187500

7.64

ANSHUS

10-Apr-15

534707

PHOPHALIA MEENA

70000

7.68

ANSHUS

10-Apr-15

534707

ANKITA HITESHBHAI SH

251020

7.64

Saregama India Ltd.

10-Apr-15

SAREGAMA

VAISHALI PRAGNESH PA

237964

157.28

Subex Limited

10-Apr-15

SUBEX

OPG SECURITIES PVT.

1277562

14.21

Subex Limited

10-Apr-15

SUBEX

OPG SECURITIES PVT.

745658

14.3

ANG Industries Limited

09-Apr-15

ANGIND

KAMLESHBHAI RAMESHBH

189978

43.24

ANG Industries Limited

09-Apr-15

ANGIND

KAMLESHBHAI RAMESHBH

189978

43.11

Dr. Datson's Labs Ltd

09-Apr-15

DRDATSONS

ADROIT FINANCIAL SER

1711262

9.54

Dr. Datson's Labs Ltd

09-Apr-15

DRDATSONS

ADROIT FINANCIAL SER

1661262

9.54

Ess Dee Aluminium Limite

09-Apr-15

ESSDEE

CHETAN RASIKLAL SHAH

160988

233.69

Ess Dee Aluminium Limite

09-Apr-15

ESSDEE

CHETAN RASIKLAL SHAH

174006

234.73

Gujarat N R E Coke Ltd

09-Apr-15

GUJNRECOKE

SICOM LTD

4192997

5.98

Sarla Performance Fibers

09-Apr-15

SARLAPOLY

OWN LEASING PRIVATE

70000

410

Sarla Performance Fibers

09-Apr-15

SARLAPOLY

TATA TRUSTEE COMPANY

150000

410.18

Suzlon Energy Limited

09-Apr-15

SUZLON

ADROIT FINANCIAL SER

21181016

28.92

Suzlon Energy Limited

09-Apr-15

SUZLON

ADROIT FINANCIAL SER

21080080

28.93

Timbor Home Limited

09-Apr-15

TIMBOR

BP FINTRADE PRIVATE

85041

6.37

Timbor Home Limited

09-Apr-15

TIMBOR

BP FINTRADE PRIVATE

67770

6.51

Arvind Remedies Limited

08-Apr-15

ARVINDREM

BP FINTRADE PRIVATE

495395

23.31

Arvind Remedies Limited

08-Apr-15

ARVINDREM

CHETAN RASIKLAL SHAH

407746

23.35

Arvind Remedies Limited

08-Apr-15

ARVINDREM

BP FINTRADE PRIVATE

516816

23.35

Arvind Remedies Limited

08-Apr-15

ARVINDREM

CHETAN RASIKLAL SHAH

407746

23.28

Cni Research Limited

Client Name

www.cniglobalbiz.com

Deal Type

Quantity

Price (Rs)
145

Call put option

Option Month Strike Price

PUT
Volume

CALL

April - 7900.00

477875

Best
Buy
3.65

Best
Sell
3.7

LTP

OI

3.7

715400

Change
OI(%)
-0.95

4.35

3.8

13125

Volume
625

Best
Buy
894.85

Best
Sell
902.8

LTP

OI

884.35

102475

Change
OI(%)
0.22

April - 7950.00

75

3.5

655.5

995.55

April - 8000.00

1161800

5.05

5.1

5.05

2478850

-2.82

41625

801

802.85

806.7

969350

-0.63

April - 8050.00

375

5.7

6.25

5.65

14650

-0.34

552.5

895.55

April - 8100.00

1546775

6.65

6.75

6.85

2482225

-0.26

6050

703

708.75

708.95

157700

1.86

April - 8150.00

47500

7.05

7.95

7.95

36850

10.16

458.95

795.2

462.75

25

April - 8200.00

2722925

9.3

9.35

9.35

3291600

-4.26

41900

606.25

609.55

608.8

324800

-2.74

April - 8250.00

17000

9.4

10.95

10.95

53300

1.96

25

523.5

598.65

533.4

275

April - 8300.00

3318725

13.15

13.5

13.15

3643750

1.31

130575

512

513.75

512.65

281875

-25.57

April - 8350.00

49150

15.2

15.5

11.9

79625

-2.27

825

434.05

501.45

470

4075

-9.94

April - 8400.00

4741900

18.9

19.25

19

4227950

4.7

83675

416

420

418.5

570600

-2.7

April - 8450.00

46500

22

23.9

23.65

144825

-3.95

3825

371

380.9

380.95

31325

-6.98

April - 8500.00

6975200

27.5

28

28

5130600

7.86

398500

330.65

331.8

328.8

1670925

-2.94

April - 8550.00

105400

30.7

34.8

31.05

124250

0.36

11800

277.85

293.25

294.85

81650

-4.61

April - 8600.00

8426225

42

42.3

42.3

3753150

5.06

713025

243.7

243.75

243.7

1743300

-3.93

April - 8650.00

372100

52.1

53.5

52.1

188725

12.47

27400

197.55

209

209

51400

4.95

April - 8700.00

11259050

65.1

65.85

65.65

3123050

-3.04

3496200

165.6

167

165.6

2277200

-7.22

April - 8750.00

368800

80

80.4

79

154100

19.23

247275

133.5

135

134

174575

37.7

April - 8800.00

6155075

99.75

101.9

99.75

1892025

37.82

11213075

103.5

104.1

103.5

3738625

18.95

April - 8850.00

13100

118.55

127

123

12950

58.41

500100

78

80.05

80

173975

35.49

April - 8900.00

1218325

151.2

153

152.2

730825

7.18

13078800

59

59.25

59.25

2791800

3.68

April - 8950.00

1025

177.25

202.3

180.5

2925

8.33

256350

41.25

42.4

41.5

192175

-21.52

April - 9000.00

588900

219.05

224

222

565875

-17.7

10691800

29.9

30.25

29.85

4621975

0.97

April - 9050.00

150

231.2

384.1

280

1250

56100

18.6

20

18.45

74500

10.82

April - 9100.00

33075

300.6

305

300.8

310975

-1.7

4963150

13.6

13.75

13.6

1389200

4.38

April - 9150.00

318.2

535.5

372.1

25

14175

9.85

8.55

17150

25.87

April - 9200.00

30675

392.1

394.95

393.2

135925

-0.2

2778400

6.3

6.55

6.35

1552350

6.36

April - 9250.00

398.25

484.85

50

5.95

275

Cni Research Limited

www.cniglobalbiz.com

10

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