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American industry and fracking: From sunset to new dawn | The Economist
hydraulic fracturing
to tap unconventional reserves of oil and gas, that his impact eventually might even
approach that of Henry Ford and Alexander Graham Bell. Y et of late doubters have been
making themselves heard too. In October Peter Voser said that one of his biggest regrets as
boss of Shell is the $24 billion his firm has invested in North Americas shale beds. This
summer, the firm took a big writedown on this investment and slashed its production
targets. Also last month BHP Billiton, which spent around $20 billion in 2011 in a bet on
shale, said it would auction half of its oil and gas acreage in Texas and New Mexico.
It is not just the biggest energy companies that have turned sceptical on shale. More than a
dozen chief executives of smaller firms specialising in unconventional gas and oil have lost
their jobs this year, as the firms troubles have made them the targets of activist investors.
Adding to the general air of negativity, last month economists at Goldman Sachs put out a
report arguing that even at its current cheap price, shale gas would provide only a modest
boost to the American economy as a whole. It argued that the energy industry is itself a
fairly small part of the economy and creates relatively few jobs; and it was doubtful about
the pace of innovation in fracking, and the extent to which cheap energy will prompt other
industries to invest more.
No one disputes that the new technology has transformed Americas prospects as a
hydrocarbons producer. Gas output has risen by one-third since its most recent trough in
2005, and oil production has risen by 30% since its recent low in 2008 (see chart). This year
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American industry and fracking: From sunset to new dawn | The Economist
America is expected to overtake Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the worlds largest
producer of oil and gas combined. Jobs in energy have nearly doubled in America since
2005; since the end of the recent recession they have grown at a faster rate than in any other
big industry. North Dakota, which sits on the huge Bakken oil and gas field (pictured), now
boasts an unemployment rate of just 3%, the lowest among all the states.
Some pessimists worry about the speed at which shale-bed wells run dry. David Hughes, a
geologist at the Post Carbon Institute, a greenish think-tank, says the combination of gass
low price and the heavy spending needed to keep it flowing casts doubt on whether the
exploitable reserves of unconventional oil and gas are as big as they are fracked up to be.
Optimists argue that the fast decline rate has come as no surprise, and that the technology,
and the industrys experience in deploying it efficiently, are improving fast enough to
mitigate much of the effect of weak prices. Each stage of fracking is significantly evolving,
says Rick Grafton, an oil and gas veteran at G2, an investment firm. Y et he concedes that
while gas prices remain at historic lows, it will remain unattractive to invest in wells that
produce only gasas opposed to ones that produce oil or a mix of gas and natural-gas
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American industry and fracking: From sunset to new dawn | The Economist
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American industry and fracking: From sunset to new dawn | The Economist
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American industry and fracking: From sunset to new dawn | The Economist
The growing supply of cheap shale gas has led to a wave of investment in converting
terminals that were built to handle imports of gas into ones that can export it. Some, such as
Andrew Liveris, the boss of Dow, a chemicals giant, worry that if too much of Americas gas
is exported, prices will rise, robbing it of its competitive advantage. However, the new export
facilities will come on stream slowly, especially if the government keeps dragging its feet over
granting export licences. And even if all the currently planned facilities are opened, which
would make America the worlds largest gas exporter, gas prices in America would still be
some way below the world priceprobably no more than $6 per BTU, says McKinsey. So
America should be able to enjoy a boost to its trade balance while still preserving its
manufacturers advantage over foreign rivals.
Look on the bright side
The argument over the impact on the job market is essentially over whether the glass is halffull or half-empty. The most that Goldman concedes in its sceptical report is that the longterm decline in jobs in energy-intensive industries has merely bottomed out. But even this
would be worth celebrating. IHS is not the only forecaster to be much more cheerful. It
predicts that unconventional energy, as well as providing jobs in its own right, will be
supporting 400,000 jobs in manufacturing in 2015 and 500,000 jobs, or 4.2% of total
manufacturing employment, in 2025.
The spending-power of those new workers, and the cut in businesses and households energy
bills, should provide a broad boost to the economy. Goldman again puts a cautious spin on
the numbers: shale energys overall effects will add just a few tenths of a percentage point
to the annual growth rate, says Jan Hatzius, its chief economist. But although this sounds
modest, if sustained for a decade or more, it would add up to something big. Not quite a
revolution, perhaps, but a significant turnaround in Americas prospects.
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